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At least 1,423 records · Page 79
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

GPU Acceleration of the Locally Selfconsistent Multiple Scattering Code for First Principles Calculation of the Ground State and Statistical Physics of Materials

The Locally Self-consistent Multiple Scattering (LSMS) code solves the first principles Density Functional theory Kohn-Sham equation for a wide range of materials with a special focus on metals, alloys and metallic nano-structures. It has traditionally exhibited near perfect scalability on massively parallel high performance computer architectures. We present our efforts to exploit GPUs to accelerate the LSMS code to enable first principles calculations of O(100,000) atoms and statistical physics sampling of finite temperature properties. Using the Cray XK7 system Titan at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility we achieve a sustained performance of 14.5PFlop/s and a speedup of 8.6 compared to the CPU only code.

Eisenbach, Markus↗
DOE OSTI2019

Real time quantum gravity dynamics from classical statistical Yang-Mills simulations

We perform microcanonical classical statistical lattice simulations of SU(N) Yang-Mills theory with eight scalars on a circle. Measuring the eigenvalue distribution of the spatial Wilson loop we find two distinct phases depending on the total energy and circle radius, which we tentatively interpret as corresponding to black hole and black string phases in a dual gravity picture. We proceed to study quenches by first preparing the system in one phase, rapidly changing the total energy, and monitoring the real-time system response. We observe that the system relaxes to the equilibrium phase corresponding to the new energy, in the process exhibiting characteristic damped oscillations. We interpret this as the topology change from black hole to black string configurations, with damped oscillations corresponding to quasi-normal mode ringing of the black hole/black string final state. This would suggest that α′ corrections alone can resolve the singularity associated with the topology change. We extract the real and imaginary part of the lowest-lying presumptive quasinormal mode as a function of energy and N.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical significance of the sterile-neutrino hypothesis in the context of reactor and gallium data

We evaluate the statistical significance of the 3+1 sterile-neutrino hypothesis using $v_e$ and $\bar{v}_e$ disappearance data from reactor, solar and gallium radioactive source experiments. Concerning the latter, we investigate the implications of the recent BEST results. For reactor data we focus on relative measurements independent of flux predictions. For the problem at hand, the usual χ 2 -approximation to hypothesis testing based on Wilks’ theorem has been shown in the literature to be inaccurate. We therefore present results based on Monte Carlo simulations, and find that this typically reduces the significance by roughly 1σ with respect to the naïve expectation. We find no significant indication in favor of sterile-neutrino oscillations from reactor data. On the other hand, gallium data (dominated by the BEST result) show more than 5σ of evidence supporting the sterile-neutrino hypothesis, favoring oscillation parameters in agreement with constraints from reactor data. This explanation is, however, in significant tension (~3 σ) with solar neutrino experiments. In order to assess the robustness of the signal for gallium experiments we present a discussion of the impact of cross-section uncertainties on the results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

A statistical analysis of the COHERENT data and applications to new physics

The observation of coherent elastic neutrino nucleus scattering (CEvNS) by the COHERENT collaboration in 2017 has opened a new window to both test Standard Model predictions at relatively low energies and probe new physics scenarios. Our investigations show, however, that a careful treatment of the statistical methods used to analyze the data is essential to derive correct constraints and bounds on new physics parameters. In this manuscript we perform a detailed analysis of the publicly available COHERENT CsI data making use of all available background data. We point out that Wilks’ theorem is not fulfilled in general and a calculation of the confidence regions via Monte Carlo simulations following a Feldman-Cousins procedure is necessary. As an example for the necessity of this approach to test new physics scenarios we quantify the allowed ranges for several scenarios with neutrino non-standard interactions. Furthermore, we provide accompanying code to enable an easy implementation of other new physics scenarios as well as data files of our results.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Symmetries and spectral statistics in chaotic conformal field theories

We discuss spectral correlations in coarse-grained chaotic two-dimensional CFTs with large central charge. We study a partition function describing the dense part of the spectrum of primary states in a way that disentangles the chaotic properties of the spectrum from those which are a consequence of Virasoro symmetry and modular invariance. We argue that random matrix universality in the near-extremal limit is an independent feature of each spin sector separately; this is a non-trivial statement because the exact spectrum is fully determined by only the spectrum of spin zero primaries and those of a single non-zero spin (“spectral determinacy”). We then describe an argument analogous to the one leading to Cardy’s formula for the averaged density of states, but in our case applying it to spectral correlations: assuming statistical universalities in the near-extremal spectrum in all spin sectors, we find similar random matrix universality in a large spin regime far from extremality.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Moduli stabilisation and the statistics of axion physics in the landscape

String theory realisations of the QCD axion are often said to belong to the anthropic window where the decay constant is around the GUT scale and the initial misalignment angle has to be tuned close to zero. In this paper we revisit this statement by studying the statistics of axion physics in the string landscape. We take moduli stabilisation properly into account since the stabilisation of the saxions is crucial to determine the physical properties of the corresponding axionic partners. We focus on the model-independent case of closed string axions in type IIB flux compactifications and find that their decay constants and mass spectrum feature a logarithmic, instead of a power-law, distribution. In the regime where the effective field theory is under control, most of these closed string axions are ultra-light axion-like particles, while axions associated to blow-up modes can naturally play the role of the QCD axion. Hence, the number of type IIB flux vacua with a closed string QCD axion with an intermediate scale decay constant and a natural value of the misalignment angle is only logarithmically suppressed. In a recent paper we found that this correlates also with a logarithmic distribution of the supersymmetry breaking scale, providing the intriguing indication that most, if not all, of the phenomenologically interesting quantities in the string landscape might feature a logarithmic distribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven high-dimensional statistical inference with generative models

Crucial to many measurements at the LHC is the use of correlated multi-dimensional information to distinguish rare processes from large backgrounds, which is complicated by the poor modeling of many of the crucial backgrounds in Monte Carlo simulations. In this work, we introduce HI-SIGMA, a method to perform unbinned high-dimensional statistical inference with data-driven background distributions. In contradistinction to many applications of Simulation Based Inference in High Energy Physics, HI-SIGMA relies on generative ML models, rather than classifiers, to learn the signal and background distributions in the high-dimensional space. These ML models allow for interpretable inference while also incorporating model errors and other sources of systematic uncertainties. We showcase this methodology on a simplified version of a di-Higgs measurement in the bbγγ final state, where the di-photon resonance allows for background interpolation from sidebands into the signal region. We demonstrate that HI-SIGMA provides improved sensitivity as compared to standard classifier-based methods, and that systematic uncertainties can be straightforwardly incorporated by extending methods which have been used for histogram based analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Statistics for F-theory Standard Models

Much of the analysis of F-theory-based Standard Models boils down to computing cohomologies of line bundles on matter curves. By varying parameters one can degenerate such matter curves to singular ones, typically with many nodes, where the computation is combinatorial and straightforward. The question remains to relate the (a priori possibly smaller) value on the original curve to the singular one. In this work, we introduce some elementary techniques (pruning trees and removing interior edges) for simplifying the resulting nodal curves to a small collection of terminal ones that can be handled directly. When applied to the QSMs, these techniques yield optimal results in the sense that obtaining more precise answers would require currently unavailable information about the QSM geometries. This provides us with an opportunity to enhance the statistical bounds established in earlier research regarding the absence of vector-like exotics on the quark-doublet curve.

Bies, Martin↗
DOE OSTI2024

Out-of-Distribution Detection and Radiological Data Monitoring Using Statistical Process Control

Abstract Machine learning (ML) models often fail with data that deviates from their training distribution. This is a significant concern for ML-enabled devices as data drift may lead to unexpected performance. This work introduces a new framework for out of distribution (OOD) detection and data drift monitoring that combines ML and geometric methods with statistical process control (SPC). We investigated different design choices, including methods for extracting feature representations and drift quantification for OOD detection in individual images and as an approach for input data monitoring. We evaluated the framework for both identifying OOD images and demonstrating the ability to detect shifts in data streams over time. We demonstrated a proof-of-concept via the following tasks: 1) differentiating axial vs. non-axial CT images, 2) differentiating CXR vs. other radiographic imaging modalities, and 3) differentiating adult CXR vs. pediatric CXR. For the identification of individual OOD images, our framework achieved high sensitivity in detecting OOD inputs: 0.980 in CT, 0.984 in CXR, and 0.854 in pediatric CXR. Our framework is also adept at monitoring data streams and identifying the time a drift occurred. In our simulations tracking drift over time, it effectively detected a shift from CXR to non-CXR instantly, a transition from axial to non-axial CT within few days, and a drift from adult to pediatric CXRs within a day—all while maintaining a low false positive rate. Through additional experiments, we demonstrate the framework is modality-agnostic and independent from the underlying model structure, making it highly customizable for specific applications and broadly applicable across different imaging modalities and deployed ML models.

Zamzmi, Ghada↗
DOE OSTI2019

Scaling laws and stability of nano-sized defect clusters in niobium via atomistic simulations and statistical analysis

The predictions of scaling laws for the structure and properties of defect clusters are generally limited to small defect clusters in their ground-state configurations. We investigated the size and geometrical configuration dependence of nano-sized defect clusters in niobium (Nb) using molecular dynamics. We studied the structure and stability of large clusters of size up to fifty defects for vacancies and one hundred defects for interstitials, as well as the role of helium and metastable configurations on the stability of these clusters. We compared three different interatomic potentials in order to determine the relative stability of these clusters as a function of their size and geometrical configurations. Additionally, we conducted a statistical analysis to predict the formation and binding energies of interstitial clusters as a function of both their size and configuration. We find that the size dependence of vacancy and interstitial clusters can be approximated by functional forms that account for bulk and surface effects as well as some considerations of elastic interactions. We also find that helium and metastable configurations can make vacancy and interstitial clusters thermally stable depending on the configuration. Our parameterized functional forms for the formation and binding energies are valid for a very broad range of defect sizes and configurations making it possible to be used directly in a coarse-grained modeling strategy such as Monte Carlo, cluster dynamics or dislocation dynamics which look at defect accumulation and evolution in microstructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Log-Correlated Large-Deviation Statistics Governing Huygens Fronts in Turbulence

Analyses have disagreed on whether the velocity u T of bulk advancement of a Huygens front in turbulence vanishes or remains finite in the limit of vanishing local front propagation speed u 0 . Here, a connection to the large-deviation statistics of log-correlated random processes enables a definitive determination of the correct small- u 0 asymptotics. This result reconciles several theoretical and phenomenological perspectives with the conclusion that u T remains finite for vanishing u 0 , which implies a propagation anomaly akin to the energy-dissipation anomaly in the limit of vanishing viscosity. Various leading-order structural properties such as a novel u 0 dependence of a bulk length scale associated with front geometry are predicted in this limit. As a result, the analysis involves a formal analogy to random advection of diffusive scalars.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Flexible classification with spatial quantile comparison and novel statistical features applied to spent nuclear fuel analysis

Multivariate classification algorithms are a common tool in contemporary data science that have begun to be applied to nuclear forensic analyses. Using a multivariate generalization of quantile–quantile plots for comparing unknown statistical distributions, a new model-free multivariate classifier called the Quantile–Quantile Comparator has been developed and tested on the analysis of simulated irradiated nuclear fuel. A method to estimate the sample-specific probability of having made an incorrect classification decision by analyzing the distribution of quantile comparisons has been developed, and methods have been developed to analyze the partition of the known data library used to analyze unknown data. By analyzing this partition, the analyst may identify classes that are likely to be confused, identify test data that are inconsistent with the data library and return a “None-of-the-Above” classification decision, and optimize the class boundaries. In this paper, the development of these capabilities is described, and a case study using real experimental assay data collected from nuclear fuel extracted from the newly-released In conclusion, Spent Fuel Isotopic Composition Database to demonstrate the efficacy of these capabilities is presented.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Near-Real-Time Statistical Analysis and Visualization of Streamflow from a Deep-Learning Rainfall-Runoff Model

Near-real-time (NRT) streamflow data are critical importance for timely water resources management. Here, we developed an open-source tool, FlowStats, for NRT streamflow analysis and visualization in Germany, based on NRT meteorological data from the German Weather Service and simulated streamflow from a long short-term memory neural network (LSTM). The LSTM model achieved very good overall performance, median NSE of 0.80 for the test period across 1,479 catchments. FlowStats provides options for deriving various streamflow statistics, from normal and abnormal streamflow detection to drought and flood analyses. An example analysis from FlowStats revealed widespread below-normal to extreme low-flow conditions across Germany from March to May 2025, which weakened from June to September 2025. Drought analysis for September 2025 highlighted severe to extreme drought conditions in northwestern Germany, while flood classifications indicated that high-flow events occurred in southwestern Germany. FlowStats can be used for various hydrological assessments to support water resources management.

Hydrological modeling↗
DOE OSTI2019

Statistical Strength Analysis of Dissimilar AA2024-T6 and AA6061-T6 Friction Stir Welded Joints

Friction stir welding has been emerged as one of the most reliable processes for joining aerospace-grade aluminum alloys. However, limited studies have been focused so far on the reliability of these joint types. In this study, the effect of welding parameters (traverse and rotation speeds) on the fracture strength of dissimilar AA2024-T6 and AA6061-T6 friction stir welded joints was statistically analyzed by the Weibull approach. Based on the results, the Weibull approach was found to be much more accurate than widely used standard deviation for evaluating the scatter of the fracture strength data. The improper selection of the process parameters not only decreased the average fracture strengths of the joints, but also scattered them around the mean value, and increased the failure probability under the same applied tension. According to the microscopic and macroscopic examinations and microhardness measurements, although the microstructural inhomogeneities caused by the improper setting of the welding parameters negatively affected the joints hardness and fracture strength, the welding defects were likely to be the most responsible factor affecting the fracture strength and its reliability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Throughput Statistical Interrogation of Mechanical Properties with Build Plate Location and Powder Reuse in AlSi10Mg

Abstract Additive manufacturing (AM) allows agile, rapid manufacturing of geometrically complex components that would otherwise be impossible through traditional manufacturing methods. With this maturing manufacturing technology comes the need to adopt testing methods that are commensurate with the speed of additive manufacturing and take advantage of its geometric flexibility. High-throughput tensile testing (HTT) is a technique that allows a large number of tensile bars to be tested in a short amount of time. In the present study, HTT is used to evaluate AM AlSi10Mg produced using powder bed fusion with a Renishaw AM250 machine. Three parameters were varied in this study: (1) powder reuse history, (2) location on the build plate, and (3) size of the tensile specimen. For all parameter combinations, at least 22 specimens were tested; in several cases, over 40 were tested. This large dataset, consisting of over 500 tensile tests, permits Weibull statistical analysis and provides sufficient fidelity to isolate subtle trends that would have likely been missed in smaller, traditional datasets. The observed trends are rationalized in terms of the role of porosity and surface crust on mechanical response.

Carroll, Jay D. (ORCID:0000000258184709)↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Characterization of Fracture in CFRP-Concrete Interfaces Due to Wet-Dry Cycling

The experimental fracture mechanics Single Contoured-Cantilever Beam (SCCB) specimen was implemented to evaluate environmentally conditioned concrete-CFRP interfaces. Fracture studies were conducted on specimens having undergone 10, 20 and 30 cycles of alternate wetting and drying. Half of the 24 conditioned specimens studied were placed in a 10% sodium sulfate solution (pH = 6.2–6.5) and half were soaked in sodium hydroxide (pH = 12) to simulate naturally occurring acidic and alkaline field exposure-conditions, respectively. At the end of each target age, SCCB fracture testing was conducted. Two approaches were used in determining the fracture toughness of the CFRP-concrete interface bond that depend on the proper identification of loads reaching a critical state, P{sub c}. In the first, the topmost, or “head”, −initiation and -arrestment loads were averaged, and in the second, the mean of the entire “set” of -initiation and -arrestment loads was taken. This raw-data was then reduced by a statistical-based method from which a range of permissible critical loads was designated. The final G{sub Ic} values cited are based on an averaging of this refined data. Considerable degradation of the CFRP-concrete interface bond resulted especially for cases of latter-stage cycling in the aggressive sodium-sulfate and -hydroxide solutions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A spatial-statistical investigation of surface expressions associated with cyclic steaming in the Midway-Sunset Oil Field, California

In the Midway Sunset Oil Field in Central California, operators inject steam into the shallow diatomite formation to enhance heavy oil recovery through imbibition, wettability alteration, and viscosity reduction, among other mechanisms. The injected steam, however, does not always remain in the reservoir or return through the wells. In two zones in the study area, the steam comes out at the surface, creating sinkholes, seeps, and steam outlets. These phenomena, called “surface expressions,” pose safety and environmental hazards. Even though these surface expressions are a widespread problem in Central California, they are not well documented and understood. Possible causes of the surface expressions include: high injection pressure, structurally controlled flow patterns, leakage of steam through old improperly abandoned wells, high injection volumes, or flow along naturally occurring faults, among other possible factors. This work examines attributes of the zones with surface expressions in order to determine factors that may contribute to their occurrence. Spatial statistical analysis using logistic regression, random forests, and classification trees is used to explore the relationship between the surface expressions and geological and production-related attributes. The results point to a significant spatial correlation between the surface expressions and two predictors: concentration of plugged wells and geologic seal thickness. The results guide follow-up studies to further investigate the role of well abandonment and seal thickness in the occurrence of surface expressions.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2015

Hardening in thermally-aged Fe–Cr binary alloys: Statistical parameters of atomistic configuration

Through exploiting Monte Carlo methodology and molecular dynamics, we computationally simulate the spinodal decomposition of iron–chromium binary alloys and analyze the relationship between the increase of yield strength induced by the phase separation phenomenon, and statistical parameters of the atomistic configuration. We successfully model the experimentally-discovered proportional relationship between the hardness and the variation parameter (or V), and also found that the adequacy of the parameter V as an empirical indicator of hardening is limited, because it does not properly capture short-range atomistic configurations that influence the hardening. We anticipate that the short-range-order parameter has more potential to become universal descriptor of the phenomenon.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗