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DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating the regional risks to food availability and access from land-based climate policies in an Integrated Assessment Model

Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production. However, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and food access due to both land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Integrated assessment models (IAM) are generally used to evaluate these policies; however, currently these models may not capture the importance of income and food prices for hunger and overall economic wellbeing. Here, we implement a measure of food security that captures the nutritional and economic aspects as the total expenditures on staple foods divided by income and weighted by total caloric consumption in an IAM, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM4.0). We then project consumer prices and our measure of food security along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Sustained economic growth underpins increases in caloric consumption and lowering expenditures on staple foods. Strict conservation policies affect food accessibility in a larger number of developing countries, whereas the negative effects of pricing terrestrial emissions is more concentrated on the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, by substantially replacing their cropland with forests and affecting the production of key staples.

Cui, Ryna↗

DOE OSTI2024

Updated Filter Leak Frequencies for Use in Risk Assessments

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is highly dependent on data, leading to more robust models as new and updated data is acquired. The Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment (HyRAM+) QRA capabilities include calculations of individual risk from leaks in a gaseous hydrogen facility due to the potential effects of jet fires and explosions. Leak frequencies are acquired through statistical analysis of published data from a variety of sources and industries. The filter leak frequencies in previous versions of the HyRAM+ software are substantially greater than the leak frequencies of other components, leading to QRA results for gaseous hydrogen in which filters consistently dominate the overall risk. Data that were previously used to derive the filter leak frequencies were reevaluated for applicability and additional data points were added to update the filter leak frequencies. The new frequencies are more comparable to leak frequencies for other components.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transient Stability Study of a Real-World Microgrid with 100% Renewables

This paper performs a transient stability study of a real-world microgrid that can operate with 100% renewables to better understand the stability and reliability of the microgrid under various dynamic scenarios. In particular, the operation of multiple grid-forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) inverters in such a power system is not well understood under dynamic operation conditions, such as islanding and black start; therefore, in this paper, an electromagnetic transient model of the microgrid is developed to investigate the stability of the system under various dynamic operating conditions and to identify potential reliability risks. The PSCAD/EMTDC simulation with the high-fidelity model provides helpful insights into the optimal operation modes of GFM and GFL inverters as well as the stability and reliability of the microgrid. It can also inform field deployment in terms of inverter control parameters and coordination as well as the expected performance of black start and unplanned islanding.

black start↗

DOE OSTI2023

Coupled Decay Heat and Thermal Hydraulic Capability for Loss-of-Coolant Accident Simulations

As the nuclear energy industry considers ways to achieve improved economics in the current fleet of light-water reactors (LWRs), one possible approach is to operate each cycle for longer durations. This causes a greater portion of the fuel to be burned and reduces the frequency of outages, which ultimately reduces the cost to operate the reactor. However, this also leads to higher burnup fuels than has traditionally been allowed in these reactors. Thus, there are concerns about integrity of high-burnup (HBu) fuel, especially during accident conditions such as loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs), as shown by Capps et al.. To investigate these concerns, advanced modeling and simulation capabilities are being leveraged to determine the susceptibility of HBu fuel to fuel fragmentation, relocation, and dispersion (FFRD). Improvements have previously been made to fuel performance capabilities to more accurately model these phenomena; multiphysics simulations have also been conducted to determine the power and burnup histories of the HBu fuel, which are needed as inputs for the fuel performance calculations. Most recently, new statistical approaches have been developed to identify a subset of fuel rods that have greater FFRD susceptibility, reducing the total number of fuel performance simulations required. Prior LOCA simulations have relied on the TRACE systems code, which can model the core and primary loop during accident conditions. TRACE includes many models for various aspects of the primary loop, but two sets of models are important for this report. First, TRACE uses a lumped-fuel approach for modeling the core. This approximates the ~50,000 fuel rods in the core with a much smaller number of rods. The rods can be lumped in various ways as determined by the user. For example, one lumped rod may be used to represent all rods in an assembly, sometimes with an additional rod representing the hottest fuel rod. However, due to runtime constraints and complexity of modeling, a more common approach is to group several assemblies or larger regions of the core into single lumped rods. These lumping schemes apply not only to fuel rods but to flow channels as well. Second, TRACE has several different models for treating decay heat, ranging from pregenerated decay heat curves based on an ANSI/ANS-5.1 standard (hereinafter abbreviated simply as ANSI) to explicit time-dependent heat inputs from the user. None of these models account for differences in isotopics between different rods, which is an approximation the work in this report seeks to eliminate. This report focuses on the implementation of coupled decay heat capabilities in the Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications (VERA) code suite to address a gap identified in previous LOCA simulations. This constitutes an improvement for both the lumped-fuel and decay heat models in TRACE. VERA has been developed to perform high-fidelity, whole-core multiphysics simulations for LWRs. Previously, during the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs (CASL) program, the emphasis was on providing accurate steady-state analysis—with a secondary focus on reactivity insertion accident (RIA) analysis—to address operational challenges in the nuclear energy industry. Under the Department of Energy (DOE) Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, these capabilities are being extended to a broader range of transient analyses with the goal of quantifying the risk of fuel failures such as FFRD. To properly model such conditions with VERA, decay heat calculations have been integrated with the multiphysics to enable rod-by-rod thermal hydraulic (TH) conditions to be driven by the decay heat in long-running accidents such as LOCAs.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transient Stability Study of a Real-World Microgrid with 100% Renewables

black start↗

DOE OSTI2022

Transient Stability Study of a Real-World Microgrid with 100% Renewables: Preprint

This paper performs a transient stability study of a real-world microgrid with 100% renewables to fully understand the stability and reliability of the microgrid under various dynamic scenarios. In particular, the operation of multiple grid-forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) inverters in such a power system is not well understood under dynamic operation conditions, such as islanding and black start; therefore, in this paper, the full-scale electromagnetic transient modeling of the microgrid is developed to investigate the stability of the system under various dynamic operating conditions and to identify potential reliability risks. The PSCAD/EMTDC simulation with the high-fidelity model provides helpful insights into the optimal operation modes of GFM and GFL inverters as well as the stability and reliability of the microgrid, which gives good references for the field deployment in terms of inverter configuration and coordination as well as the capabilities of black start and unplanned islanding.

100% renewable microgrid↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Baseline Medical System Translation for the Impact Medical Database

NASA has developed a new evidence-based data-driven probabilistic risk assessment and tradespace analysis tool as a successor to the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). This updated decision support tool is known as IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces). Whereas IMM focuses on the resources and risks associated with International Space Station (ISS) and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) missions, IMPACT estimates the frequency and consequences of medical conditions that might arise during exploration missions. One of the services offered by IMM is a series of generic or baseline medical systems associated with typical mission types or DRMs (Design Reference Missions), such that requestors may prioritize questions pertaining to the mission itself over the medical supplies indicated by the model outputs for that DRM. In a mission focused request, the appropriate baseline medical system is used in place of a prepared or optimized medical kit. In preparation, an effort was undertaken to create baseline systems of medical resources within IMPACT suitable for typical DRMs. Using an existing baseline medical system within IMM’s Integrated Medical Evidence Database (iMED) as a starting point, the resources found within the medical kit were compared to and substituted for equivalent resources available within the IMPACT MD (Medical Database). In consultation with clinicians with knowledge of IMPACT’s MD, each resource was matched as closely as possible to a similarly purposed resource in IMPACT, seeking to preserve the treatment capabilities and procedures offered by the IMM medical system while reconciling the differences in modeled resources and medical conditions between the models. To demonstrate the efficacy of this work, a prototype ISS medical system in IMPACT was translated from the baseline used in the IMM. The appropriate medical system was then run through its associated medical model to compare and validate the resultant risks and risk mitigation provided by each baseline ISS medical kit.

S Schwartz↗

NASA NTRS2021

Trash Compaction and Processing System Trash Models and Evolved Gas Analysis of Trash Components

As part of the NASA Next Space Technologies for Exploration Partnerships (NextSTEP) Trash Compaction and Processing System (TCPS) program, the Generation 2 (Gen 2) Heat Melt Compactor (HMC) tests a variety of trash models (nominal, high liquid, and high cloth) in order to evaluate the technical risk associated with processing spacecraft trash. The trash components used in the trash models not only impacts the final solid trash disk quality, but also the water and gas effluent compositions. In order to better design an auxiliary system to treat the effluent streams, both the input trash components and the effluent must be characterized. Evolved gas analysis (EGA) methods are used to characterize the input trash components. The EGA results will be used to determine various HMC operational parameters, as well as to determine the optimal operation for the TCPS system.

Heat Melt Compactor↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advances in Modeling Capabilities for Critical Mineral Separation Technologies: A PrOMMiS Overview

This is an oral presentation at the TechConnect conference on the work developed by PrOMMiS. PrOMMiS builds on and extends capabilities developed within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Institute for the Design of Advanced Energy Systems (IDAES), Integrated Platform, and Water Treatment Technoeconomic Assessment Platform (WaterTAP), which have been successfully leveraged by other Department of Energy research areas. The open-source toolkit facilitates validation, reproducibility, and accountability, allowing for easy extension of the framework to other systems. This talk presents an overview of the PrOMMiS capabilities, including unit model library, advances in thermophysical properties models, and capital cost libraries for simulation and optimization of mineral processing technologies. The PrOMMiS applications include (1) conceptual design and superstructure optimization for screening different process configurations and identifying promising technologies; (2) dynamic modeling and optimization to enable the creation of digital twins; (3) surrogate modeling tools to leverage data when predictive thermodynamic models are not currently available; (4) technical risk reduction via uncertainty quantification and robust optimization to identify process designs that are robust to process variability and uncertainties; and (5) deployment of uncertainty quantification tools to maximize knowledge gained from experimental campaigns, while reducing the number of experiments required

critical minerals and materials↗

NASA NTRS2010

The 2011 Draconid Shower Risk to Earth-Orbiting Satellites

Current meteor shower forecast models project a strong Draconid outburst, possibly a storm, on October 8, 2011, with a duration of approximately 7 hours and peaking between 19 and 21 hours UT. Predicted rates span an order of magnitude, with maximum Zenithal Hourly Rates (ZHRs) ranging from a few tens to several hundred. Calibration of the NASA MSFC Meteoroid Stream Model 1 to radar and optical observations of past apparitions, particularly the 2005 Draconid outburst 2, suggest that the maximum rate will be several hundreds per hour. Given the high spatial density of the Draconid stream, this implies a maximum meteoroid flux of 5-10 Draconids km(exp -2)/hr (to a limiting diameter of 1 mm), some 25-50 times greater than the normal sporadic flux of 0.2 km(exp -2)/ hr for particles of this size. Total outburst fluence, assuming a maximum ZHR of 750, is 15.5 Draconids km(exp -2), resulting in an overall 10x risk increase to spacecraft surfaces vulnerable to hypervelocity impacts by 1 mm particles. It is now established that a significant fraction of spacecraft anomalies produced by shower meteoroids (e.g. OLYMPUS and LandSat 5) are caused by electrostatic discharges produced by meteoroid impacts. In these cases, the charge generated is roughly proportional to v(exp 3.5(4)), giving a Draconid moving at 20 km/s approximately 1/80th the electrical damage potential of a Leonid of the same mass. In other words, a Draconid outburst with a maximum ZHR of 800 presents the same electrical risk as a normal Leonid shower with a ZHR of 15, assuming the mass indices and shower durations are the same. This is supported by the fact that no spacecraft electrical anomalies were reported during the strong Draconid outbursts of 1985 and 1998. However, the lack of past anomalies should not be taken as carte blanche for satellite operators to ignore the 2011 Draconids, as the upcoming outburst will constitute a period of enhanced risk for vehicles in near-Earth space. Each spacecrft is unique, and components have differing damage thresholds; programs are encouraged to conduct analyses to determine whether or not mitigation strategies are necessary for their vehicles.

Cooke, William J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Web-Based Negotiation Tool for Conflict Resolution in Upper Class E Traffic Management

In Upper Class E airspace 60,000 feet (or Flight level / FL600), vehicles such as High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) balloons and slow fixed-wing gliders have diverse vehicle characteristics and limited maneuverability. Due to these unique characteristics of high-altitude operations, a new type of strategic negotiation-based conflict resolution method has been proposed to avoid potential conflict between vehicles in Upper Class E airspace, well in advance of the conflict point and with ample time for bilateral negotiation. This paper introduces the first real-time web-based negotiation tool for high-altitude operations. To facilitate negotiation, this tool incorporates a bilateral negotiation model with an algorithm to assess conflict risks and generate new flight trajectories with a given flight path deviation. This tool allows users to make decisions during negotiation manually and automatically while enforcing the needed constraints for negotiation to be successful. Operators can make decisions at every step while they interact with each other on separate devices. To conduct sensitivity analysis, a mechanism that automates human inputs to the user interface is also developed for this web-based negotiation tool, such that fast-time simulations can be constructed and used to explore various scenarios to gain insights into this web-based negotiation model. Using this tool, a study was conducted to evaluate the impact of different negotiation strategies, vehicle types, vehicle crossing angles, and operator response times during the negotiations on metrics such as total negotiation completion time, number of negotiation rounds, and extra flight distance to avoid the conflict due to negotiation, compared to ones without negotiation. The results suggest that operators benefit from using negotiated flight paths with quick response times, across various crossing angles and vehicle types. Various Negotiation Strategies are investigated to simulate the behaviors associated with different types of negotiations. The findings demonstrate that, in comparison to the conventional method where a single operator assumes full responsibility, negotiation-based strategic deconfliction reduces the total extra flight distance by an average of 24% - 27%. On an individual basis, each operator may be able to save an average of 65% of their extra flight distance.

Upper Class E Traffic Management (ETM)↗

NASA NTRS2008

Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment Applied to Launch Vehicle Conceptual Design

A simulation-based risk assessment approach is presented and is applied to the analysis of abort during the ascent phase of a space exploration mission. The approach utilizes groupings of launch vehicle failures, referred to as failure bins, which are mapped to corresponding failure environments. Physical models are used to characterize the failure environments in terms of the risk due to blast overpressure, resulting debris field, and the thermal radiation due to a fireball. The resulting risk to the crew is dynamically modeled by combining the likelihood of each failure, the severity of the failure environments as a function of initiator and time of the failure, the robustness of the crew module, and the warning time available due to early detection. The approach is shown to support the launch vehicle design process by characterizing the risk drivers and identifying regions where failure detection would significantly reduce the risk to the crew.

Mathias, Donovan L.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Un-Numbered Operational Areas PRL 229 Railroad Tie Disposal Area Pond Confirmation Sampling Report

This Confirmatory Sampling (CS) Report (CSR) was prepared for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Kennedy Space Center (KSC), Florida in accordance with the CS Work Plan (CSWP) (HGL, 2022a). The CSR summarizes investigation activities performed on the Railroad Tie Disposal Area (RTDA) of the Un-Numbered Operational Areas (UNOA), Potential Release Location (PRL) 229 located at KSC. HydroGeoLogic, Inc. (HGL) prepared this report under Contract Number 80KSC019D0012. The purpose of the CSR is to provide information to evaluate the level of potential contamination in surface water and sediment samples collected from the RTDA PRL 229 Pond and determine if contaminants pose unacceptable risks to ecological receptors. The CSR provides analytical data of 10 sets of surface water and sediment samples collected in 2021. Surface water samples were analyzed for volatile organic compounds (VOCs), semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs), polynuclear aromatic hydrocarbon (PAHs), metals, hardness, and salinity, while sediment samples were analyzed for metals, total organic carbon (TOC), SVOCs, PAHs, and total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH). The CSR includes a Screening Level Ecological Risk Assessment (SLERA) conducted under KSC’s Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program to determine if unacceptable risks to ecological receptors exist at PRL 229 Pond. Metals and PAHs were detected in surface water samples, including detections of antimony, arsenic, barium, calcium, copper, lead, magnesium, thallium, zinc, anthracene, benzo(a)anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(g,h,i)perylene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, chrysene, dibenzo(a,h)anthracene, fluoranthene, indeno(1,2,3-c,d)pyrene and pyrene. Based on measured salinity (1.03 to 1.21 parts per thousand), the pond was identified as freshwater. Sediment analytical results also contained detections of metals and PAHs, including antimony, arsenic, barium, beryllium, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, nickel, selenium, thallium, zinc, anthracene benzo(a)anthracene, benzo(a)pyrene, benzo(b)fluoranthene, benzo(g,h,i)perylene, benzo(k)fluoranthene, chrysene, dibenzo(a,h)anthracene, fluoranthene, indeno(1,2,3-c,d)pyrene and pyrene. Potential risks to ecological receptors were evaluated in accordance with the SLERA Work Plan and the Decision Process Document for the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Corrective Action Program at KSC (DPD) (Geosyntec, 2019), and using the 2021 sediment and surface water analytical results. Potential ecological receptors evaluated in the SLERA include the aquatic community, benthic invertebrates, aquatic birds, and aquatic mammals. The SLERA included Steps 2a through 2c of the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) process in accordance with the DPD. Using multiple lines of evidence, the SLERA concluded that many of the detected analytes are present at concentrations similar to those in background or reference locations at KSC, and/or at concentrations that would not pose a significant risk to ecological communities. There are no screening values available for the avian community, and PAHs are bioaccumulative compounds. For this reason, food web modeling was completed as a supplement to Step 2c to provide a quantitative evaluation of this exposure pathway. Food web modeling indicates that PAHs are unlikely to pose a risk to birds exposed to site sediment and surface water. Based on the results of the SLERA, the contaminants in sediment and surface water pose no to minimal risk to the ecological communities that could live or forage at the site. Based on the results of the SLERA, no further study is recommended for the RTDA Pond at PRL 229.

Confirmation Sampling↗

DOE OSTI2020

Accelerating Hanford Site Cleanup through Operations Research Modeling - 20238

The Hanford Site cleanup effort will require the integration of dozens of unique facilities and processes, many of which will be first-of-a-kind in implementation and design. Each facility will be governed by its own set of operating logic, configured with a unique array of unit operations, and subject to a set of constraints that will affect its behavior. The collection of facilities have multiple points of interface, making the operations of any one facility potentially significant to the operations of other up- or downstream processes. It is therefore highly desirable to accurately predict these operations, as it allows for Site officials to identify and preempt bottlenecks and vulnerabilities before they unexpectedly inhibit the cleanup mission. With the quantity and complexity of the processes that will be on Site, building a pen-and-paper or even a spreadsheet-assisted model of the cleanup mission quickly becomes overwhelming in scope and inaccurate in execution. The Engineering organization for the Site's Tank Operations Contract (TOC) has therefore implemented the use of operations research (OR) modeling to simulate and predict future operations of Site facilities. These models are created using a discrete event simulation tool that allows for the development of detailed, versatile, and robust models. Not only can these models account for complex logical behaviors, but they can also simulate process details down to the level of vessel sizing, labor utilization, equipment reliability, and resource availability. To date, the TOC has developed OR models for several facilities on Site, including for single-shell tank (SST) farms, double-shell tank (DST) farms, the Effluent Treatment Facility (ETF), and the waste transfer system. These models have focused on identifying bottlenecks and operational constraints, and have been used to quantify the effects of implementing process changes. This latter point is particularly valuable, as it allows for several alternatives to be studied in a virtual setting before committing resources to making a change in the field. The decision to develop OR models has gained tremendous support from the Site's stakeholders and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) management, and has prompted the use of the tool to support additional internal and external initiatives. Recently, an initiative was proposed to use the models to help identify and provide quantitative backing for risks and opportunities for the TOC. This application of OR could not only help inform how the TOC manages its risks (e.g. quantities and types of spare parts), but could also help drive process improvements whose benefits might otherwise be hard to quantify. The models have also been used to drive the TOC's cloud computing, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning (ML) initiatives. These initiatives will not only improve the ability of the TOC to more rapidly respond to the needs of its customers, but it will also aid in the ability of the TOC to analyze and improve the processes it studies. Partnership with two external software development and consulting companies (Lanner and Ynformed) has furthered not only the application of AI and ML within the TOC, but has also spurred the development of new/improved software tools and platforms used by the companies. These partnerships have proven to be mutually beneficial and productive, and have set a precedent for the types of gains that can be made by exploring such options. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2021

Translating dosimetry of Dibenzo[ def,p ]chrysene (DBC) and metabolites across dose and species using physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling

We report that Dibenzo[def,p]chrysene (DBC) is an environmental polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) that causes tumors in mice and has been classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Animal toxicity studies often utilize higher doses than are found in relevant human exposures. Additionally, like many PAHs, DBC requires metabolic bioactivation to form the ultimate toxicant, and species differences in DBC and DBC metabolite metabolism have been observed. To understand the implications of dose and species differences, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model (PBPK) for DBC and major metabolites was developed in mice and humans. Metabolism parameters used in the model were obtained from experimental in vitro metabolism assays using mice and human hepatic microsomes. PBPK model simulations were evaluated against mice dosed with 15 mg/kg DBC by oral gavage and human volunteers orally microdosed with 29 ng of DBC. DBC and its primary metabolite DBC-11,12-diol were measured in blood of mice and humans, while in urine, the majority of DBC metabolites were obeserved as conjugated DBC-11,12-diol, conjugated DBC tetrols, and unconjugated DBC tetrols. The PBPK model was able to predict the time course concentrations of DBC, DBC-11,12-diol, and other DBC metabolites in blood and urine of human volunteers and mice with reasonable accuracy. Agreement between model simulations and measured pharmacokinetic data in mice and human studies demonstrate the success and versatility of our model for interspecies extrapolation and applicability for different doses. Furthermore, our simulations show that internal dose metrics used for risk assessment do not necessarily scale allometrically, and that PBPK modeling provides a reliable approach to appropriately account for interspecies differences in metabolism and physiology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Synthetic Vision Preliminary Integrated Safety Analysis

This report documents efforts to analyze a sample of aviation safety programs, using the LMI-developed integrated safety analysis tool to determine the change in system risk resulting from Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) technology implementation. Specifically, we have worked to modify existing system safety tools to address the safety impact of synthetic vision (SV) technology. Safety metrics include reliability, availability, and resultant hazard. This analysis of SV technology is intended to be part of a larger effort to develop a model that is capable of "providing further support to the product design and development team as additional information becomes available". The reliability analysis portion of the effort is complete and is fully documented in this report. The simulation analysis is still underway; it will be documented in a subsequent report. The specific goal of this effort is to apply the integrated safety analysis to SV technology. This report also contains a brief discussion of data necessary to expand the human performance capability of the model, as well as a discussion of human behavior and its implications for system risk assessment in this modeling environment.

Hemm, Robert↗

NASA NTRS2015

Dynamic Modeling of Ascent Abort Scenarios for Crewed Launches

For the last 30 years, the United States' human space program has been focused on low Earth orbit exploration and operations with the Space Shuttle and International Space Station programs. After over 40 years, the U.S. is again working to return humans beyond Earth orbit. To do so, NASA is developing a new launch vehicle and spacecraft to provide this capability. The launch vehicle is referred to as the Space Launch System (SLS) and the spacecraft is called Orion. The new launch system is being developed with an abort system that will enable the crew to escape launch failures that would otherwise be catastrophic as well as probabilistic design requirements set for probability of loss of crew (LOC) and loss of mission (LOM). In order to optimize the risk associated with designing this new launch system, as well as verifying the associated requirements, NASA has developed a comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of the integrated ascent phase of the mission that includes the launch vehicle, spacecraft and ground launch facilities. Given the dynamic nature of rocket launches and the potential for things to go wrong, developing a PRA to assess the risk can be a very challenging effort. Prior to launch and after the crew has boarded the spacecraft, the risk exposure time can be on the order of three hours. During this time, events may initiate from either the spacecraft, the launch vehicle, or the ground systems, thus requiring an emergency egress from the spacecraft to a safe ground location or a pad abort via the spacecraft's launch abort system. Following launch, again either the spacecraft or the launch vehicle can initiate the need for the crew to abort the mission and return home. Obviously, there are thousands of scenarios whose outcome depends on when the abort is initiated during ascent and how the abort is performed. This includes modeling the risk associated with explosions and benign system failures that require aborting a spacecraft under very dynamic conditions, particularly in the lower atmosphere, and returning the crew home safely. This paper will provide an overview of the PRA model that has been developed of this new launch system, including some of the challenges that are associated with this effort.

Bigler, Mark↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the regional stranded asset risks from new coal plants under 1.5 °C

Momentum to phase out unabated coal use is growing globally. This transition is critical to meeting the Paris climate goals but can potentially lead to large amounts of stranded assets, especially in regions with newer and growing coal fleets. Here we combine plant-level data with a global integrated assessment model to quantify changes in global stranded asset risks from coal-fired power plants across regions and over time. With new plant proposals, cancellations, and retirements over the past five years, global net committed emissions in 2030 from existing and planned coal plants declined by 3.3 GtCO 2 (25%). While these emissions are now roughly in line with initial Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement, they remain far off track from longer-term climate goals. Progress made in 2021 towards no new coal can potentially avoid a 24% (503 GW) increase in capacity and a 55% ($520 billion) increase in stranded assets under 1.5 °C. Stranded asset risks fall disproportionately on emerging Asian economies with newer and growing coal fleets. Recent no new coal commitments from major coal financers can potentially reduce stranding of international investments by over 50%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗