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Today high-performance computing systems and new analytical and numerical techniques enable engineers to explore the use of advanced materials for shell design. This paper reviews some of the historical developments of shell buckling analysis and design. The paper concludes by identifying key research directions for reliable and robust methods development in shell stability analysis and design.
Abstract not provided.
On-line monitoring and tracking of nuclear plant system and component degradation is being investigated as a method for improving the safety, reliability, and maintainability of aging nuclear power plants. Accurate prediction of the current degradation state of system components and structures is important for accurate estimates of their remaining useful life (RUL). The correct quantification and propagation of both the measurement uncertainty and model uncertainty is necessary for quantifying the uncertainty of the RUL prediction. This research project developed and validated methods to perform RUL estimation throughout the lifecycle of plant components. Prognostic methods should seamlessly operate from beginning of component life (BOL) to end of component life (EOL). We term this "Lifecycle Prognostics." When a component is put into use, the only information available may be past failure times of similar components used in similar conditions, and the predicted failure distribution can be estimated with reliability methods such as Weibull Analysis (Type I Prognostics). As the component operates, it begins to degrade and consume its available life. This life consumption may be a function of system stresses, and the failure distribution should be updated to account for the system operational stress levels (Type II Prognostics). When degradation becomes apparent, this information can be used to again improve the RUL estimate (Type III Prognostics). This research focused on developing prognostics algorithms for the three types of prognostics, developing uncertainty quantification methods for each of the algorithms, and, most importantly, developing a framework using Bayesian methods to transition between prognostic model types and update failure distribution estimates as new information becomes available. The developed methods were then validated on a range of accelerated degradation test beds. The ultimate goal of prognostics is to provide an accurate assessment for RUL predictions, with as little uncertainty as possible. From a reliability and maintenance standpoint, there would be improved safety by avoiding all failures. Calculated risk would decrease, saving money by avoiding unnecessary maintenance. One major bottleneck for data-driven prognostics is the availability of run-to-failure degradation data. Without enough degradation data leading to failure, prognostic models can yield RUL distributions with large uncertainty or mathematically unsound predictions. To address these issues a "Lifecycle Prognostics" method was developed to create RUL distributions from Beginning of Life (BOL) to End of Life (EOL). This employs established Type I, II, and III prognostic methods, and Bayesian transitioning between each Type. Bayesian methods, as opposed to classical frequency statistics, show how an expected value, a priori, changes with new data to form a posterior distribution. For example, when you purchase a component you have a prior belief, or estimation, of how long it will operate before failing. As you operate it, you may collect information related to its condition that will allow you to update your estimated failure time. Bayesian methods are best used when limited data are available. The use of a prior also means that information is conserved when new data are available. The weightings of the prior belief and information contained in the sampled data are dependent on the variance (uncertainty) of the prior, the variance (uncertainty) of the data, and the amount of measured data (number of samples). If the variance of the prior is small compared to the uncertainty of the data, the prior will be weighed more heavily. However, as more data are collected, the data will be weighted more heavily and will eventually swamp out the prior in calculating the posterior distribution of model parameters. Fundamentally Bayesian analysis updates a prior belief with new data to get a posterior belief. The general approach to applying the Bayesian method to lifecycle prognostics consisted of identifying the prior, which is the RUL estimate and uncertainty from the previous prognostics type, and combining it with observational data related to the newer prognostics type. The resulting lifecycle prognostics algorithm uses all available information throughout the component lifecycle.
Recently, National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA's) White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) has tested rocket engines with high pulse frequencies. This has resulted in the use of some of WSTF's existing thrust stands, which were designed for static loading, in tests with large dynamic forces. In order to ensure that the thrust stands can withstand the dynamic loading of high pulse frequency engines while still accurately reporting the test data, their vibrational modes must be characterized. If it is found that they have vibrational modes with frequencies near the pulsing frequency of the test, then they must be modified to withstand the dynamic forces from the pulsing rocket engines. To make this determination the Mobile Modal Testing Unit (MMTU), a system capable of determining the resonant frequencies and mode shapes of a structure, was used on the test stands at WSTF. Once the resonant frequency has been determined for a test stand, it can be compared to the pulse frequency of a test engine to determine whether or not that stand can avoid resonance and reliably test that engine. After analysis of test stand 406 at White Sands Test Facility, it was determined that natural frequencies for the structure are located around 75, 125, and 240 Hz, and thus should be avoided during testing.
A numerical analysis of fully three dimensional, statistically steady flows in propulsive transition ducts being considered for use in future aircraft of higher maneuverability is investigated. The purpose of the transition duct is to convert axisymmetric flow from conventional propulsion systems to that of a rectangular geometry of high aspect ratio. In an optimal design, the transition duct would be of minimal length in order to reduce the weight penalty, while the geometrical change would be gradual enough to avoid detrimental flow perturbations. Recent experiments conducted at the Propulsion Aerodynamics Branch have indicated that thrust losses in ducts of superelliptic cross-section can be surprisingly low, even if flow separation occurs near the divergent walls. In order to address the objective of developing a rational design procedure for optimal transition ducts, it is necessary to have available a reliable computational tool for the analysis of flows achieved in a sequence of configurations. Current CFD efforts involving complicated geometries usually must contend with two separate but interactive aspects: namely, grid generation and flow solution. The first two avenues of the present investigation were comprised of suitable grid generation for a class of transition ducts of superelliptic cross-section, and the subsequent application of the flow solver PAB3D to this geometry. The code, PAB3D, was developed as a comprehensive tool for the solution of both internal and external high speed flows. The third avenue of investigation has involved analytical formulations to aid in the understanding of the nature of duct flows, and also to provide a basis of comparison for subsequent numerical solutions. Numerical results to date include the generation of two preliminary grid systems for duct flows, and the initial application of PAB3D to the corresponding geometries, which are of the class tested experimentally.
This paper examines China’s regional electricity grids using a reliability perspective, which is commonly measured in terms of a reserve margin. Our analysis shows that at the end of 2014, the average reserve margin for China as a whole was roughly 28%, almost twice as high as a typical planning reserve margin in the U.S. However, this national average masks huge variations in reserve margins across major regional power grid areas: the northeastern region has the highest reserve margin of over 60%, followed by the northwestern region at 49%, and the southern grid area at 35%. In this analysis, we also examined future reserve margins for regional electricity grids in China under two scenarios: 1) a low scenario of national annual electricity consumption growth rates of 1.5% between 2015 and 2020 and 1.0% between 2020 and 2025, and 2) a high scenario of annual average growth rates of 3.0% and 2.0%, respectively. Both scenarios suggest that the northeastern, northwestern, and southern regions have significant excess generation capacity, and that this excess capacity situation will continue over the next decade without regulatory intervention. The northern and central regions could have sufficient generation capacity to 2020, but may require additional resources in a higher growth scenario. The eastern region requires new resources by 2020 in both scenarios.
Wind power has become a key player in satisfying the global energy needs. With increased market penetration, unanticipated unsteady loading induced failures, installation related reductions in power generation, and significant maintenance costs have underscored the need to predict the unsteady fluid-structure interactions related to turbine layout and off-design wind conditions. Contemporary turbine design tools are incapable of accounting for such loadings. As a result, researchers have started utilizing high-Performance-Computing (HPC) based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers, such as the U.S. Department of Energy sponsored ExaWind software package, to investigate these phenomena. Unfortunately, such HPC tools are computationally expensive for routine industrial use, often because of the sheer number of cells required to resolve the wake flowfield. This paper describes a preliminary effort to address this issue by developing a vorticity-velocity based CFD off-body solver, VorTran-M2-AMReX, that integrates directly with DOE's ExaWind wind turbine analysis system to perform accurate and reliable simulations of wind turbine/farm at a lower computational cost than ExaWind alone. This article summarizes work undertaken to date concerning the assembly of the proposed analysis tool, and provides preliminary validation and verification of the VorTran-M2-AMReX off-body solver.
High Temperature Reactor (HTR) is a kind of promising nuclear reactor for supplying electricity and heat with inherent safety. The High Temperature Reactor-Pebble bed Modular reactor (HTR-PM) in China is equipped with the Distributed Control System (DCS) where wired network is applied mainly based on fiber. Considering the difficulty and cost of implementation, the flexibility of network configuration and maintenance, the industrial wireless network might be potential for some cases in the network of the next generation of HTR. Nowadays, there are several technologies available for choice, such as wireless HART, WIA-PA and ZigBee. Characteristics of these technologies are introduced. The most important factors for choice of the technology of network are the required reliability and latency tolerance of communication. Analysis and classification of the communications needed in the network of the HTR are carried out, and a comparison of popular industrial wireless technologies, including the reliability, the latency, the communication distance, and the difficulty and cost of implementation is made. Generally speaking, considering the low latency, high reliability and the compatibility with HART devices, wireless HART is promising. WIA-PA could be applied if redundant gateway is required. ZigBee might show its advantages in power consumption and cost. (authors)
In hierarchical models of galaxy formation, stellar tidal streams are expected around most, if not all, galaxies. Although these features may provide useful diagnostics of the Λ CDM model, their observational properties remain poorly constrained because they are challenging to detect and interpret and have been studied in detail for only a sparse sampling of galaxy population. More quantitative, systematic approaches are required. We advocate statistical analysis of the counts and properties of such features in archival wide-field imaging surveys for a direct comparison against results from numerical simulations. We aim to study systematically the frequency of occurrence and other observational properties of tidal features around nearby galaxies. The sample we construct will act as a foundational dataset for statistical comparison with cosmological models of galaxy formation. Our approach is based on a visual classification of diffuse features around a volume-limited sample of nearby galaxies, using a post-processing of Sloan Digital Syk Survey (SDSS) imaging optimized for the detection of stellar structure with low surface brightness. At a limiting surface brightness of 28 mag arcsec –2 , 14% of the galaxies in our sample exhibit evidence of diffuse features likely to have arisen from minor merging events. Our technique recovers all previously known streams in our sample and yields a number of new candidates. Consistent with previous studies, coherent arc-like features and shells are the most common type of tidal structures found in this study. Here, we conclude that although some detections are ambiguous and could be corroborated or refuted with deeper imaging, our technique provides a reliable foundation for the statistical analysis of diffuse circumgalactic features in wide-area imaging surveys, and for the identification of targets for follow-up studies.
In this work it is developed a reliable approach and its feasibility to the design and analysis of a composite structures. The metric is compared the robustness and reliability designs versus the traditional design, to demonstrate the gain that can be achieved with a probabilistic approach. The use of the stochastic approach of the uncertain parameteters in combination with the multi-scale levels analysis is the main objective of this paper. The work is dedicated to analyze the uncertainties in the design, tests, manufacturing process, and key gates such as materials characteristic.
Reducing the idling of long-haul heavy-duty trucks has long been recognized as a particularly low-hanging fruit of fuel efficiency and emissions reduction. The displacement of about 10 hours of diesel idling every day, for most days of the year, for as many as a million long-haul trucks has very clear benefits. This report considers the costs and return on investment (ROI) for idling reduction (IR) equipment for both truck owners and electrified parking space (EPS) equipment owners. For the truck owners, the key variables examined are idling hours to be displaced (generally 1,000 to 2,000 hours per year) and the price of fuel ($0 to $5/gal). The ideal IR option would provide complete services in varied climates in any location and offer the best ROI on trucks that log many idling hours. For trucks that have fewer idling hours, options with a fixed cost per hour (i.e., EPS) might be most attractive if they were available to all, or even most, truck drivers. EPS, however, is particularly cost effective for trucks on prescribed routes with a need for regular, extended stops at terminals. (EPS is also called truck stop electrification, or TSE.) The analysis shows that all IR options save money when fuel costs more than $2/gal. For trucks requiring bunk heat, a simple heater (plug-in or diesel) is almost always the most costeffective way to provide heat, even if the truck is equipped with an auxiliary power unit (APU) or is parked at a single-system EPS location. For trucks requiring bunk air-conditioning, the use of single-system EPS is most cost effective for those logging fewer idling hours. Even for trucks with higher idling hours, the cost of EPS may be about the same as that for on-board air-conditioning. Clearly, trucks’ locations and seasonal factors—and the availability of EPS— are significant in the choice of “best fit” IR equipment for truck owners. This report also considers costs and payback for owners of EPS infrastructure. An industry that 5 years ago had at least five players has been narrowed to two companies—one in single-system EPS (IdleAir) and the other in dual-system EPS (Shorepower Technologies). Use of EPS by truck drivers has not met initial expectations for a variety of reasons. One area where EPS has particular promise, however, is in the cost-effective provision of reliable air-conditioning. This analysis is focused strictly on cost and fuel savings; it does not consider the important benefits of reduced emissions (i.e., greenhouse gases and criteria pollutants). It is important to note that all IR options provide some emissions benefits. Even where an IR option may not have a rapid ROI, the emissions-reduction benefit may be considerable. Finally, as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) set stricter standards to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve the fuel efficiency of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, the emissions benefits of IR strategies will become increasingly important.
Structural reliability of thermoelectric generators (TEGs) in medium to high temperature applications still remains a challenge. Currently there are no established standards for evaluating the thermomechanical reliability of TEGs during new material and module development phases in the industry. In this work we implemented a procedure for evaluating the reliability of brittle TE materials based on the common practice in the ceramics industry. The probabilistic thermomechanical reliability of TEG couples and modules is evaluated using Weibull analysis. Finite element simulations were carried out to study the influence of TEG couple parameters such as element geometry, dimensions, spacing, metallization thickness, and processing conditions on the stresses, and the structural reliability evaluations are conducted based on the TE element stresses. We report results showed that the boundary conditions and processing temperatures have significant influence on the element and metallization stresses and overall device reliability. The external compressive load significantly enhanced structural reliability. Results also showed that among geometrical parameters the element length has a dominating influence on the element stresses compared to the leg cross-sectional shapes. The cross-section geometry of legs showed considerable effect at shorter lengths and the influence diminished with increased lengths. The proposed approach for evaluating the structural reliability could be integrated with performance optimization techniques for developing optimal and reliable TEG devices.
An important step in producing more reliable and efficient photovoltaic modules is to establish a relationship between the microscopic properties of modules deployed in the field for many years and efficiency-related parameters. The first step in accomplishing this task is to be able to identify and remove small areas from these modules without causing any damage to these samples. In this work, we will describe two different procedures to core small areas of deployed and stressed solar panels produced with different materials (Si, CIGS, and CdTe), and we will prove that these processes did not damage the cored material. We will also show that the coring procedure changes for different types of photovoltaic modules.
Current needs for high-reliability, reusable software; rapid, evolutionary development; and verification of innovative software architectures have focused attention on improving techniques for analyzing the safety and reliability of embedded software.
Limb muscle atrophy and the accompanying decline in function can adversely affect the performance of astronauts during mission-related activities and upon re-ambulation in a gravitational environment. Previous characterization of space flight-induced muscle atrophy has been performed using pre and post flight magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In addition to being costly and time consuming, MRI is an impractical methodology for assessing in-flight changes in muscle size. Given the mobility of ultrasound (US) equipment, it may be more feasible to evaluate changes in muscle size using this technique. PURPOSE: To examine the reliability and validity of using a customized template to acquire panoramic ultrasound (US) images for determining quadriceps and gastrocnemius anatomical cross sectional area (CSA). METHODS: Vastus lateralis (VL), rectus femoris (RF), medial gastrocnemius (MG), and lateral gastrocnemius (LG) CSA were assessed in 10 healthy individuals (36+/-2 yrs) using US and MRI. Panoramic US images were acquired by 2 sonographers using a customized template placed on the thigh and calf and analyzed by the same 2 sonographers (CX50 Philips). MRI images of the leg were acquired while subjects were supine in a 1.5T scanner (Signa Horizon LX, General Electric) and were analyzed by 3 trained investigators. The average of the 2 US and 3 MRI values were used for validity analysis. RESULTS: High inter-experimenter reliability was found for both the US template and MRI analysis as coefficients of variation across muscles ranged from 2.4 to 4.1% and 2.8 to 3.8%, respectively. Significant correlations were found between US and MRI CSA measures (VL, r = 0.85; RF, r = 0.60; MG, r = 0.86; LG, r = 0.73; p < 0.05). Furthermore, the standard error of measurement between US and MRI ranged from 0.91 to 2.09 sq cm with high limits of agreement analyzed by Bland-Altman plots. However, there were significant differences between absolute values of MRI and US for all muscles. CONCLUSION: The present results indicate that utilizing a customized US template provides reliable measures of leg muscle CSA, and thus could be used to characterize changes in muscle CSA both in flight and on the ground.
Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Inspectability (RAMI) concepts and techniques, that acquired great importance during the first manned space missions, have been progressively extended to industrial, scientific and consumer equipments to assure them satisfactory performances and lifetimes. In the design of experimental facilities, like tokamaks, mainly aimed at demonstrating validity and feasibility of scientific theories, RAMI analysis has been often left aside. DEMO, the future prototype fusion reactors, will be instead designed for steadily delivering electrical energy to commercial grids, so that the RAMI aspects will assume an absolute relevance since their initial design phases. A preliminary RAMI analysis of the LHCD system for the conceptual EU DEMO reactor is given in the paper.
As urbanization continues to grow, urban density also rises, placing significant stress on critical infrastructure. Cities often face challenges in investing in new infrastructure or upgrading existing ones. One area of infrastructure that has come under strain is the electric grid, leading to prolonged power outages. According to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the average duration of power outages has steadily doubled from 2013 to 2021, primarily due to extreme weather events. The IEEE has developed a series of reliability metrics to assess the reliability of the electric system. However, these metrics are only applied at the utility level, making it challenging to comprehend the variations in these indices at finer spatial resolutions and, consequently, evaluate reliability at the non-utility level. In this study, we leveraged electric outage data collected at 15-minute intervals at the county level to estimate electric system reliability over a six-year period using a novel data analysis approach. Our findings reveal a gradual decline in reliability in the U.S. Southwest compared to national averages. Furthermore, the duration of outages per customer per event has significantly decreased in large portions of California and Florida. These discoveries can be valuable for utility companies as they seek to pinpoint regional anomalies and plan for prioritized remediation efforts.
Specimens suitable for investigating the reliability of production nondestructive evaluation (NDE) to detect tightly closed fatigue cracks in high strength alloys representative of those materials used in spacecraft engine/booster construction were produced. Inconel 718 was selected as representative of nickel base alloys and Haynes 188 was selected as representative of cobalt base alloys used in this application. Cleaning procedures were developed to insure the reusability of the test specimens and a flaw detection reliability assessment of the fluorescent penetrant inspection method was performed using the test specimens produced to characterize their use for future reliability assessments and to provide additional NDE flaw detection reliability data for high strength alloys. The statistical analysis of the fluorescent penetrant inspection data was performed to determine the detection reliabilities for each inspection at a 90% probability/95% confidence level.