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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

Anomaly Identification of Synchronized Voltage Waveform for Situational Awareness of Low Inertia Systems

Inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as photovoltaics (PVs), wind turbines, and battery energy storage systems (BESSs) are widely deployed in low-carbon power systems. However, these resources typically do not provide the inertia needed for grid stability, resulting in a low-inertia power system. IBRs and lack of inertia have been known to cause anomalies such as waveform distortions and wideband oscillations in power systems due to the limited inertia level, leading to increased generation trips and load shedding. Here, to achieve effective anomaly identification, this paper proposes a synchro-waveform-based algorithm utilizing real-time synchronized voltage waveform measurements from waveform measurement units (WMUs). In the proposed method, different physical characteristics, as well as statistical features, are extracted from synchronized voltage waveform measurements to filter anomalies. Then, the anomaly identification approach based on the random forest is developed and deployed into the FNET/GridEye system considering trade-offs among accuracy, computational burden, and deployment cost. Moreover, four WMUs are specially designed and deployed on Kauai Island to receive instantaneous synchronized voltage waveform measurements. To verify the performance of the proposed algorithm, different experiments are carried out with collected field test data. The result demonstrates that the performance of the proposed synchro-waveform-based anomaly categorization algorithm can accurately identify anomalies 95.35% of the time, which has comparable performance among benchmarking algorithms.

Situational awareness↗

A Self-learning Neural Network Approach for Radio Frequency Interference Detection and Removal in Radio Astronomy

In this work, we present a novel neural network (NN) method for the detection and removal of radio frequency interference (RFI) from the raw digitized signal in the signal processing chain of a typical radio astronomy experiment. The main advantage of our method is that it does not require a training set. Instead, our method relies on the fact that the true signal of interest coming from astronomical sources is thermal and therefore described as a Gaussian random process, which cannot be compressed. We employ a variational encoder/decoder network to find the compressible information in the data stream that can explain the most variance with the fewest degrees of freedom. We demonstrate it on a set of toy problems and stored ring buffers from the Baryon Mapping eXperiment prototype. We find that the RFI subtraction is effective at cleaning simulated time streams: While we find that the power spectra of the RFI-cleaned time streams output by the NN suffer from extra signal consistent with additive noise, we find that it is generally around percent level across the band and sub 10% in contaminated spectral channels even when RFI power is an order of magnitude larger than the signal. We discuss the advantages and limitations of this method and possible implementation in the front end of future radio experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Novel method to assess gastric emptying in humans: the Pellet Gastric Emptying Test

To further validate the Pellet Gastric Emptying Test (PGET) as a marker of gastric emptying, a randomized, four-way crossover study was conducted with 12 healthy subjects. The study consisted of oral co-administration of enteric coated caffeine (CAFF) and acetaminophen (APAP) pellets in four treatment phases: Same Size (100 kcal), Fasted, Small Liquid Meal (100 kcal), and Standard Meal (847 kcal). The time of first appearance of measurable drug marker in plasma, t(initial), was taken as the emptying time for the markers. Co-administration of same size enteric coated pellets of CAFF and APAP (0.7 mm in diameter) revealed no statistically significant differences in t(initial) values indicating that emptying was dependent only on size and not on chemical make-up of the pellets. Co-administration of different size pellets indicated that the smaller 0.7-mm diameter (CAFF) pellets were emptied and absorbed significantly earlier than the larger 3.6-mm diameter (APAP) pellets with both the Small Liquid Meal (by 35 min) and the Standard Meal (by 33 min) (P<0.05). The differences in emptying of the pellets were not significant in the Fasted Phase. The results suggest that the pellet gastric emptying test could prove useful in monitoring changes in transit times in the fasted and fed states and their impact on drug absorption.

NASA Discipline Regulatory Physiology↗

A Maximum Likelihood Approach to Determine Sensor Radiometric Response Coefficients for NPP VIIRS Reflective Solar Bands

Optical sensors aboard Earth orbiting satellites such as the next generation Visible/Infrared Imager/Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) assume that the sensors radiometric response in the Reflective Solar Bands (RSB) is described by a quadratic polynomial, in relating the aperture spectral radiance to the sensor Digital Number (DN) readout. For VIIRS Flight Unit 1, the coefficients are to be determined before launch by an attenuation method, although the linear coefficient will be further determined on-orbit through observing the Solar Diffuser. In determining the quadratic polynomial coefficients by the attenuation method, a Maximum Likelihood approach is applied in carrying out the least-squares procedure. Crucial to the Maximum Likelihood least-squares procedure is the computation of the weight. The weight not only has a contribution from the noise of the sensor s digital count, with an important contribution from digitization error, but also is affected heavily by the mathematical expression used to predict the value of the dependent variable, because both the independent and the dependent variables contain random noise. In addition, model errors have a major impact on the uncertainties of the coefficients. The Maximum Likelihood approach demonstrates the inadequacy of the attenuation method model with a quadratic polynomial for the retrieved spectral radiance. We show that using the inadequate model dramatically increases the uncertainties of the coefficients. We compute the coefficient values and their uncertainties, considering both measurement and model errors.

Lei, Ning↗

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning (ML) Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗

Vibration Testing of Electrical Cables to Quantify Loads at Tie-Down Locations

The standard method for defining static equivalent structural load factors for components is based on Mile s equation. Unless test data is available, 5% critical damping is assumed for all components when calculating loads. Application of this method to electrical cable tie-down hardware often results in high loads, which often exceed the capability of typical tie-down options such as cable ties and P-clamps. Random vibration testing of electrical cables was used to better understand the factors that influence component loads: natural frequency, damping, and mass participation. An initial round of vibration testing successfully identified variables of interest, checked out the test fixture and instrumentation, and provided justification for removing some conservatism in the standard method. Additional testing is planned that will include a larger range of cable sizes for the most significant contributors to load as variables to further refine loads at cable tie-down points. Completed testing has provided justification to reduce loads at cable tie-downs by 45% with additional refinement based on measured cable natural frequencies.

Dutson, Joseph D.↗

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% was shown on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗

Transcriptomics-based Machine Learning Analysis Predicts Space-Exposed Murine Livers

Limited sample sizes, high data dimensionality, and sensitivity to technical and biological variability of next generation sequencing (NGS), typically limits machine learning (ML) approaches in spaceflight studies that include radiation effects. However, pooling smaller studies while addressing intra- and inter-study variabilities allows for ML predictive modeling. Here, integration methods were applied to whole transcriptome shotgun sequencing (RNA-seq) data from six mouse liver GeneLab datasets (GLDS) (n ranging from 6 to 39 samples) from with a total of 81 spaceflight and ground-control samples to determine top features (i.e. genes) relevant to spaceflight including the effect of radiation exposure. RNASeq counts were normalized for each study, then merged and scaled across all datasets. Data dimensionality was reduced using a minimum redundancy maximum relevance (MRMR) methodology. Redundancy and relevance were computed using the Pearson correlation and F-statistic, respectively. The top 100 MRMR features were used to predict spaceflight vs. ground-control samples using Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) classifiers with 5-fold cross validation (CV). Principal component analysis (PCA) on the complete feature set versus the MRMR features shows separation between spaceflight samples and ground controls (Figure 1A). The ML-based gene sets were compared against differential gene expression results obtained with DESeq2 from individual GLDS. Using all features or randomly sampled subsets at matching set sizes with MRMR, a maximum classifier accuracy of 69% was shown on the test set over 5 folds. For all classifiers, CV training using at least the top 30 MRMR genes show minimum 89% accuracy and 0.95 AUC value on the test set over 5 folds (Figure 1B). Baseline set analysis on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) identified using padj ≤ 0.05 show 295 DEGs that overlap at least two studies and 13 DEGs that overlap three studies (Figure 1C). Set analysis between the top 100 MRMR features and the DEGs showed 47 genes that overlap at least one study and 24 genes that overlap two studies. Over-representation analysis showed overlapping biological processes related to fatty acid and lipid metabolism which may indicate these processes in the response to spaceflight stressors. MRMR feature selection for the selected ML methods improve performance relative to a classifier built on all features or randomly sampled subsets. Permutation feature importance within the decorrelated MRMR features showed concordance in feature ranking between ML methods. A challenge of applying ML methods across heterogeneous NGS data is accounting for signal:noise. Here, signal validation across studies was shown by intersecting sets between top MRMR genes and DEGs from DESeq2 analysis. Non-intersecting sets introduce opportunity to explore genes relevant to differentiating space flight exposed groups and implementing ML methods across existing NGS datasets may overcome sample size limitations.

Machine Learning↗

Hyper-fidelity depletion coupled with discrete pebble motion in pebble bed reactors

Pebble bed reactors have raised new interest during the past decade due to their attractive characteristics. Therefore, accurate simulations must be performed to better understand these systems and ensure optimal and safe designs. Most current methods use lower fidelity approaches with representative unit-cells or macro-zones with uniform fluxes, which have accuracy and flexibility limitations. A novel hyper-fidelity method for pebble bed reactors depletion is presented and internally couples Serpent 2 and a pseudo-motion routine. Pseudo-motion is applied handling vertical shifts of compositions in a static pebble bed, random reinsertion of used pebbles, insertion of fresh pebbles and used pebbles discarding. Associated with individual depletion to correctly determine the flux spectrum and composition in each pebble, this hyper-fidelity approach paves the way towards more accurate depletion calculation in pebble bed reactors. Using this method, a demonstration is completed on a small-scale reactor. In this application, the core reaches equilibrium, and the following data is extracted: core-wise parameters evolution, pebble-wise spatial and statistical distribution. Discarded pebbles are analyzed, and relevant information is shown. This work proves the feasibility of hyper fidelity depletion with Serpent 2, and the range of use for this method: reactor design and analysis for equilibrium and slow transients, lower fidelity methods validation and feeding fuel performance, thermal-hydraulics, or waste management models. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Cooperative Routing for an Air–Ground Vehicle Team—Exact Algorithm, Transformation Method, and Heuristics

This paper considers a cooperative vehicle routing problem for an intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance mission in the presence of communication constraints between the vehicles. The proposed framework uses a ground vehicle and an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) that travel cooperatively and visit a set of targets while satisfying the communication constraints. The problem is formulated as a mixed-integer linear program, and a branch-and-cut algorithm is developed to solve the problem to optimality. Furthermore, a transformation method and a heuristic are also developed for the problem. The effectiveness of all the algorithms is corroborated through extensive computational experiments on several randomly generated instances. Furthermore, this paper is motivated by an intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance mission involving a single unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and a ground vehicle, where the vehicles must coordinate their activity in the presence of communication constraints. The combination of a small UAV and a ground vehicle is an ideal platform for such missions, since small UAVs can fly at low altitudes and can avoid obstacles or threats that would be problematic for the ground vehicle alone. This paper addresses the coordinated routing problem involving these two vehicles and presents an algorithm to obtain an optimal solution for this problem, fast heuristics to obtain good feasible solutions, and also a transformation method to transform any instance of this cooperative vehicle routing problem to an instance of the one-in-a-set traveling salesman problem.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Dynamics of disordered mechanical systems with large connectivity, free probability theory, and quasi-Hermitian random matrices

Disordered mechanical systems with high connectivity represent a limit opposite to the more familiar case of disordered crystals. Individual ions in a crystal are subjected essentially to nearest-neighbor interactions. In contrast, the systems studied in this paper have all their degrees of freedom coupled to each other. Thus, the problem of linearized small oscillations of such systems involves two full positive-definite and non-commuting matrices, as opposed to the sparse matrices associated with disordered crystals. Consequently, the familiar methods for determining the averaged vibrational spectra of disordered crystals, introduced many years ago by Dyson and Schmidt, are inapplicable for highly connected disordered systems. In this paper we apply random matrix theory (RMT) to calculate the averaged vibrational spectra of such systems, in the limit of infinitely large system size. At the heart of our analysis lies a calculation of the average spectrum of the product of two positive definite random matrices by means of free probability theory techniques. We also show that this problem is intimately related with quasi-hermitian random matrix theory (QHRMT), which means that the ‘hamiltonian’ matrix is hermitian with respect to a non-trivial metric. This extends ordinary hermitian matrices, for which the metric is simply the unit matrix. The analytical results we obtain for the spectrum agree well with our numerical results. The latter also exhibit oscillations at the high-frequency band edge, which fit well the Airy kernel pattern. We also compute inverse participation ratios of the corresponding amplitude eigenvectors and demonstrate that they are all extended, in contrast with conventional disordered crystals. Finally, we compute the thermodynamic properties of the system from its spectrum of vibrations. In addition to matrix model analysis, we also study the vibrational spectra of various multi-segmented disordered pendula, as concrete realizations of highly connected mechanical systems. A universal feature of the density of vibration modes, common to both pendula and the matrix model, is that it tends to a non-zero constant at vanishing frequency.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Chatter detection in simulated machining data: a simple refined approach to vibration data

Vibration monitoring is a critical aspect of assessing the health and performance of machinery and industrial processes. This study explores the application of machine learning techniques, specifically the Random Forest (RF) classification model, to predict and classify chatter—a detrimental self-excited vibration phenomenon—during machining operations. While sophisticated methods have been employed to address chatter, this research investigates the efficacy of a novel approach to an RF model. The study leverages simulated vibration data, bypassing resource-intensive real-world data collection, to develop a versatile chatter detection model applicable across diverse machining configurations. The feature extraction process combines time-series features and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) data features, streamlining the model while addressing challenges posed by feature selection. By focusing on the RF model’s simplicity and efficiency, this research advances chatter detection techniques, offering a practical tool with improved generalizability, computational efficiency, and ease of interpretation. The study demonstrates that innovation can reside in simplicity, opening avenues for wider applicability and accelerated progress in the machining industry.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A mechanistic damage model for solid oxide fuel cell ceramic materials - Part I: Constitutive modeling

A multiscale mechanistic damage model for solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) ceramics that combines micromechanics of stiffness reduction due to material porosity change and microcracking with a continuum damage mechanics (CDM) description for the evolution of microcracks up to fracture is developed in this work. The model also accounts for volumetric swelling of the anode due to redox cycling. Porosity change and swelling during redox combined with normal operating thermomechanical loads could increase the stress, strain and damage distributions in SOFC stacks leading them to failure. The proposed model involves three governing parameters: (i) the porosity in terms of the pore or void volume fraction, (ii) material swelling magnitude prescribed at a given loading step, and (iii) the damage variable that describes microcracking caused by thermomechanical loads and swelling. Pores and microcracks in the ceramics are modeled as randomly distributed ellipsoidal inclusions with negligible stiffness by an Eshelby-Mori-Tanaka formulation combined with an inclusion orientation distribution method. Microcracking damage evolution is described by a CDM formulation. Volumetric swelling is treated in a similar way to thermal expansion in the constitutive relations. After validation and numerical checks, the damage model is used to analyze a simplified SOFC positive-electrode/electrolyte/negative-electrode (PEN) structure subjected a redox cycle in addition to thermomechanical loads experienced during normal operation of a SOFC stack.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Composition of Catalytic Coprocessing Products from Molecular Beam Mass Spectra

Demand for the development of an automated and integrated refining process for biofuels has increased in recent years due to the lack of generalized process inspection tools. In bio-oil upgrading processes, all process variables are maintained based on the offline specification of intermediates and products. A lack of real-time product specifications in batch-wise monitoring can cause process failure and wasted resources. Therefore, there is a need for a fast and accurate intermediates/product specification tool that can be used for real-time specification to reduce waste and mitigate the risk of process failure. Here, to address this gap, we developed a machine learning (ML) model for predicting speciated bio-oil composition, including paraffin, iso-paraffins, olefins, naphthene, and aromatics. The model is trained using the mass spectra from upgraded products collected in the vapor phase before condensation and predicts the composition of the condensed product. Training ML models using raw mass spectra is challenging due to numerous overlapped peaks originating from different parent compounds. With this in mind, we propose a protocol that (i) transforms raw mass spectra to chemistry-inspired predefined features and (ii) trains decision tree-based models using these features. Our results show that the random forest model was robust against overfitting and had the highest accuracy compared to other models. Moreover, a stochastic ablation method determined the eight most significant features while maximizing the accuracy. Our protocol facilitates real-time compositional analysis of upgraded bio-oils and thus real-time process monitoring. Additionally, this protocol enables the rational design of efficient catalysts and the determination of optimal process conditions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Simulating sticky particles: A Monte Carlo method to sample a stratification

Many problems in materials science and biology involve particles interacting with strong, short-ranged bonds that can break and form on experimental timescales. Treating such bonds as constraints can significantly speed up sampling their equilibrium distribution, and there are several methods to sample probability distributions subject to fixed constraints. We introduce a Monte Carlo method to handle the case when constraints can break and form. More generally, the method samples a probability distribution on a stratification: a collection of manifolds of different dimensions, where the lower-dimensional manifolds lie on the boundaries of the higher-dimensional manifolds. We show several applications of the method in polymer physics, self-assembly of colloids, and volume calculation in high dimensions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Lattice collective modes from a continuum model of magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene

Here, we show that the insulating states of magic-angle twisted bilayer graphene support a series of collective modes corresponding to local particle-hole excitations on triangular lattice sites. Our theory is based on a continuum model of the magic angle flat bands. When the system is insulating at moiré band filling ν = -3, our calculations show that the ground state supports seven low-energy modes that lie well below the charge gap throughout the moiré Brillouin zone, one of which couples strongly to THz photons. The low-energy collective modes are faithfully described by a model with a local SU(8) degree of freedom in each moiré unit cell that we identify as the direct product of spin, valley, and an orbital pseudospin. Apart from spin and valley-wave modes, the collective mode spectrum includes a low-energy intraflavor exciton mode associated with transitions between flat valence and conduction band orbitals.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Postselection-Free Entanglement Dynamics via Spacetime Duality

The dynamics of entanglement in 'hybrid' non-unitary circuits (for example, involving both unitary gates and quantum measurements) has recently become an object of intense study. A major hurdle toward experimentally realizing this physics is the need to apply postselection on random measurement outcomes in order to repeatedly prepare a given output state, resulting in an exponential overhead. We propose a method to sidestep this issue in a wide class of non-unitary circuits by taking advantage of spacetime duality. This method maps the purification dynamics of a mixed state under non-unitary evolution onto a particular correlation function in an associated unitary circuit. This translates to an operational protocol which could be straightforwardly implemented on a digital quantum simulator. We discuss the signatures of different entanglement phases, and demonstrate examples via numerical simulations. With minor modifications, the proposed protocol allows measurement of the purity of arbitrary subsystems, which could shed light on the properties of the quantum error correcting code formed by the mixed phase in this class of hybrid dynamics.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗