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At least 1,423 records · Page 79
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of Local Water Vapor Analysis Uncertainty on Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Hurricane Irma (2017) as a Testbed

Abstract Tropical cyclone formation is known to require abundant water vapor in the lower to middle troposphere within the incipient disturbance. In this study, we assess the impacts of local water vapor analysis uncertainty on the predictability of the formation of Hurricane Irma (2017). To this end, we reduce the magnitude of the incipient disturbance’s water vapor perturbations obtained from an ensemble-based data assimilation system that constrained moisture by assimilating all-sky infrared and microwave radiances. Five-day ensemble forecasts are initialized two days before genesis using each set of modified analysis perturbations. Growth of convective differences and intensity uncertainty are evaluated for each ensemble forecast. We observe that when initializing an ensemble forecast with only moisture uncertainty within the incipient disturbance, the resulting intensity uncertainty at every lead time exceeds half that of an ensemble containing initial perturbations to all variables throughout the domain. Although ensembles with different initial moisture uncertainty amplitudes reveal a similar pathway to genesis, uncertainty in genesis timing varies substantially across ensembles since moister members exhibit earlier spinup of the low-level vortex. These differences in genesis timing are traced back to the first 6–12 h of integration, when differences in the position and intensity of mesoscale convective systems across ensemble members develop more quickly with greater initial moisture uncertainty. In addition, the rapid growth of intensity uncertainty may be greatly modulated by the diurnal cycle. Ultimately, this study underscores the importance of targeting the incipient disturbance with high spatiotemporal water vapor observations for ingestion into data assimilation systems. Significance Statement Hurricanes form from clusters of thunderstorms that organize into a coherent system. One of the key ingredients for the formation process is an abundance of moisture. In this study, we test the sensitivity of hurricane formation to the initial moisture content in the vicinity of the cluster of thunderstorms that would become Hurricane Irma (2017). To do so, we initialize sets of forecasts each having a different variability of initial moisture content within the embryonic disturbance. Our results show that the predictability of hurricane formation is highly dependent on the uncertainty of the moisture content within the initial disturbance. Consequently, more high-quality observations of the moisture within the precursor disturbances to hurricanes are expected to improve forecasts of their formation.

Hartman, Christopher M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Catalytic Bio-crude Production in a Novel, Short-Contact Time Reactor

RTI has developed a catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) process to produce biomass-based hydrocarbon replacement fuels. From a technology perspective, this advanced biofuels process produces liquid transportation fuels that can leverage capital expenditures in the existing petroleum distribution infrastructure. From a business perspective, this technology does not face potential market limitations caused by oxygenate blend limitations for light duty vehicle applications. A promising catalyst has been developed with excellent potential for deoxygenation to produce a hydrocarbon-rich biocrude that is more suitable for upgrading with traditional hydroprocessing technology. The role of the catalyst is to control the chemistry during biomass pyrolysis to produce a biocrude in a single step that has lower oxygen content and is more thermally stable than conventional biomass fast pyrolysis oil. Catalyst properties are optimized to minimize gas and coke production and improve catalytic deoxygenation and biocrude yields. Results from this project have demonstrated that biocrudes from catalytic fast pyrolysis contain <20 wt% oxygen, with the organic fraction as low as 12% oxygen. These oxygen numbers are > 50% lower compared to traditional fast pyrolysis oils. The biocrude produced from our CFP process can be upgraded to gasoline range hydrocarbons. A very conservative approach for upgrading included a preliminary stabilization step followed by a hydroprocessing step. The oxygen content in the upgraded product was decreased by 97% (to less than 3wt %) from the oxygen content of the biocrude sample. Additionally, the acid content was reduced by 99% from the acid content of the biocrude sample. In an optimized integrated process, the CFP step and the hydroprocessing (upgrading) step need to be carefully balanced to maximize the input biomass energy that is recovered in the finished biofuels. Hydrogen utilization and carbon recovery during both catalytic biomass pyrolysis and biocrude upgrading need to be optimized to maximize energy recovery in the finished biofuel. A nominal 1 ton per day (TPD) catalytic biomass pyrolysis system was designed based on the laboratory experimental data. The system was designed to achieve the short residence times (0.5–2 sec) and high heat transfer rates required for maximum liquid biocrude yields while optimizing process integration to maintain catalyst activity by continuous regeneration. The catalytic biomass pyrolysis reactor is a continuously circulating single-loop transport reactor design that is flexible enough to allow sensitivity studies around temperature, residence time, biomass feed rate, and catalyst-to-biomass ratio (i.e., catalyst circulation rate) for process optimization. For a nominal 100 lb/hr feed rate of dry biomass, the products include ~25 lb/hr char and coke, ~20 lb/hr permanent gases, and ~55 lb/hr condensable vapors. Pyrolysis temperatures are 350–600°C, and the system is operated close to ambient pressure. Production of the catalyst developed within the project was scaled up to provide enough material (200kg) for bench-scale testing. The 1TPD bench-scale unit was fabricated, installed and commissioned with this project. Biocrude samples from wood were produced in this unit with the CFP catalyst with material balance > 90%. The intermediate biocrude yields and chemical composition compare well with previous laboratory results and a hydroprocessing strategy for upgrading the resulting biocrude was developed. The experimental results obtained within this project were used to develop a process model for a 2000 TPD commercial facility. Detailed flow sheets were developed for all major unit operations in the process and provided a basis for an economic analysis to develop capital and operating costs. Estimates of the biofuel production costs were used to develop internal rates of return for the yields and compositions measured for the current state of technology at the end of this project and for the yields anticipated for an optimized (nth plant) scenario as additional process improvements are made.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Hyperspectral Raman Imaging using a Spatial Heterodyne Spectrometer (SHS)

Savannah River National Laboratory, and the larger community, has limited chemical-specific imaging capabilities, which would be beneficial for remote detection of threat chemicals or use in inaccessible and harsh environments, as well as in-line process monitoring. The project objective is to develop a novel, rugged, highly sensitive spectrometer to support real-time, chemically specific imaging using hyperspectral Raman spectroscopy.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Simulated wildfire burned area over the CONUS during 2001-2020

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

Liu, Ye↗
DOE OSTI2025

Particle Swarm Optimization of Dynamic Load Model Parameters in Large Systems

This paper considers two dynamic load models that are widely used in industry to account for induction motor behavior: CMLD and CLOD. These models must be parametrized for the specific utility system in a general way so that they can be used in planning studies and provide a conservative but realistic representation of load behavior. This study considers a measurement-based approach to tuning both models. The load modeling study compares the response of the tuned models to generic candidate models using historical events. This study considers one area-based subsystem to simplify the modeling approach and reduce the number of models required for simulations. Additionally, because dynamic load models often produce similar results for different sets of parameters, a sensitivity study was conducted to assess the parameter impacts on the voltage response. The sensitivity study covers the parameters that are tuned using event measurements. The process to estimate the parameters uses the particle-swarm optimization algorithm. Overall, the performance of the tuned model more accurately captures recovery voltage, delayed recovery, and settling voltage than its predecessor models while not being overly tuned so that it remains general for peak summer conditions.

dynamic load modeling↗
DOE OSTI2022

Shock Hugoniot of Forged and Additively Manufactured 304L Stainless Steel

The purpose of this research was to measure the equation of state for additively manufactured (AM) and forged 304L stainless steel using a novel experimental technique. An understanding of the dynamic behavior of AM metals is integral to their timely adoption into various applications. The Hugoniot of the AM 304L was compared to that of the forged 304L at particle velocities where the material retains a two-wave structure. This comparison enabled us to determine the sensitivity of the equation of state to microstructure as varied due to processing. Our results showed that there was a measurable difference in the measured shock velocity between the AM and forged 304L. The shock wave velocities for the AM 304L were found to be ~3% slower than those for the forged 304L at similar particle velocities. To understand these differences, properties such as densities, sound speeds, and texture were measured and compared between the forged and AM materials. Our results showed that no measurable difference was found in these properties. Additionally, it is possible that differing elastic wave amplitudes may influence shock velocity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Detection Limits of Low-mass, Long-period Exoplanets Using Gaussian Processes Applied to HARPS-N Solar Radial Velocities

Radial velocity (RV) searches for Earth-mass exoplanets in the habitable zone around Sun-like stars are limited by the effects of stellar variability on the host star. In particular, suppression of convective blueshift and brightness inhomogeneities due to photospheric faculae/plage and starspots are the dominant contribution to the variability of such stellar RVs. Gaussian process (GP) regression is a powerful tool for statistically modeling these quasi-periodic variations. We investigate the limits of this technique using 800 days of RVs from the solar telescope on the High Accuracy Radial velocity Planet Searcher for the Northern hemisphere (HARPS-N) spectrograph. These data provide a well-sampled time series of stellar RV variations. Into this data set, we inject Keplerian signals with periods between 100 and 500 days and amplitudes between 0.6 and 2.4 m s{sup −1}. We use GP regression to fit the resulting RVs and determine the statistical significance of recovered periods and amplitudes. We then generate synthetic RVs with the same covariance properties as the solar data to determine a lower bound on the observational baseline necessary to detect low-mass planets in Venus-like orbits around a Sun-like star. Our simulations show that discovering planets with a larger mass (∼0.5 m s{sup −1}) using current-generation spectrographs and GP regression will require more than 12 yr of densely sampled RV observations. Furthermore, even with a perfect model of stellar variability, discovering a true exo-Venus (∼0.1 m s{sup −1}) with current instruments would take over 15 yr. Therefore, next-generation spectrographs and better models of stellar variability are required for detection of such planets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1972

Effect of aging at 1040 C (1900 F) on the ductility and structure of a tantalum alloy, T-111

The post-aging embrittlement of T-111 (tantalum - 8-percent tungsten - 2-percent hafnium) following exposure for up to about 10,000 hours at 1040 C in either vacuum or liquid lithium was investigated for sheet and tubing samples. This thermal aging was shown to greatly increase the sensitivity of T-111 to hydrogen embrittlement during subsequent room temperature specimen processing or testing. The hydrogen embrittlement problem can be avoided by preventing exposure to the T-111 to moisture during post-aging processing or testing. Aging at 1040 C also resulted in formation of HfO2 particles at grain boundaries, which may contribute to the observed embrittlement.

Watson, G. K.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Vanadium isotopic composition and concentrations of ferromagnesian elements in returned lunar samples

The effects are sought of an energetic charged particle irradiation of solar system material which is postulated as having taken place early in its history. A similar irradiation took place much more recently in the history of lunar samples and meteorites and this process is studied by means of a variety of monitors including highly sensitive noble gas nuclides, radionuclides, and tracks. Such monitors cannot be used to study the postulated early irradiation since it could have taken place under conditions such that these monitors were not retained or were subsequently lost. Accordingly, it is necessary that a nongaseous element be used to search for the effects of this irradiation, and one of the most sensitive of these is the vanadium isotopic composition. A comparative study is made of the 50 sub V/51 sub V ratios in 15 meteoritic, 5 terrestrial, and 11 lunar samples.

Lipschutz, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Theoretical investigation of nonlinear three-dimensional instabilities in liquid rockets with real nozzles

An approximate analytical technique has been developed for the solution of nonlinear three-dimensional, transverse and axial combustion-instability problems that are frequently observed in liquid-propellant rocket motors. This theory is an extension and generalization of previous analyses, which could analyze either transverse or axial instabilities in liquid combustors with quasi-steady nozzles, to the practical situations of three-dimensional instabilities in combustors with conventional DeLaval nozzles. Unlike the quasi-steady nozzle, the presence of a conventional nozzle imposes restrictions upon the behavior of both the amplitudes and phases of the oscillations at the nozzle entrance plane. The applicability of the solution technique, which is based on the Galerkin method, is demonstrated by analyzing the nonlinear stability of a cylindrical liquid-rocket combustor with uniform injection of propellants at one end and a conventional nozzle at the other end. Crocco's pressure-sensitive time-lag model is used to describe the unsteady combustion process.

Powell, E. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

ATS-6 spacecraft surface treatment for the control of electrical discharges

The ATS-6 has been subject to potential charges as high as 11,000 volts based on onboard measurements. Thus, special measures were required to protect the spacecraft surface areas, - primarily the Earth Viewing Module, the reflector support truss, and the solar array boom that were specially processed for thermal control - from electrical discharges whose accompanying fields could destroy sensitive receiving circuits. The paper describes thermal blanket grounding criteria and techniques applied to prevent undesired discharge effects, and discusses the disturbance rate from static discharge in orbit.

Keiser, B. E.↗
NASA NTRS1977

A distributed microprocessor system for spacecraft control and data handling

The specific requirements for spacecraft computing systems are considered. These requirements are partly related to the constraints of limited resources of power, weight, and volume. Another important factor is the requirement of extremely high reliability. These reliability requirements have led to introduction of automated redundancy techniques on board the spacecraft. The various redundant computers check each other and provide recovery procedures when a computer is found to have failed. Past and future capabilities are considered along with distributed processing requirements. System considerations are discussed, taking into account suboptimum computer throughput, sensitivity to software modifications, hierarchic timing, I/O granularity, restricted communications, synchronous functions, hierarchic control, and concurrent error detection. A description is presented of the Unified Data System (UDS), which consists of a set of standard microcomputers connected by several buses. Attention is also given to synchronization and timing, the executive control structure, the programming language, and the executive program.

Rennels, D. A.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Numerical Prediction of the President's Day Cyclone

Numerical-diagnostic studies of major anomalous weather events are being conducted in order to investigate the relevant physical processes associated with the events and the role of satellite observing systems in the analysis and prediction of these phenomena. One component of this study is concerned with the numerical prediction of intense coastal and oceanic cyclogenesis. The specific objectives of this research are: (1) to assess the accuracy of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences model predictions of cyclogenesis, (2) to determine the importance of large scale dynamical processes and diabatic heating to the prediction, and (3) to evaluate the sensitivity of the model predictions to the initial conditions. It was shown that diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic. As an upper level short-wave trough approached this ridge, diabatic heating associated with the release of latent heat intensified, and the gradient of vorticity, vorticity advection, upper level divergence, and upward vertical motion in advance of the trough were greatly increased, providing strong large-scale forcing for the surface cyclogenesis.

Atlas, R.↗
NASA NTRS1987

An interactive editor for definition of touch-sensitive zones for a graphic display

In the continuing effort to develop more efficient man-machine communications methods, touch displays have shown potential as straightforward input systems. The development of software necessary to handle such systems, however, can become tedious. In order to reduce the need for redundant programming, a touch editor has been developed which allows a programmer to interactively define touch-sensitive areas for a graphic display. The information produced during the editing process is written to a data file, which can be accessed easily when needed by an application program. This paper outlines the structure, logic, and use of the editor, as well as the hardware with which it is presently compatible.

Monroe, Burt L., III↗
NASA NTRS1987

The growth and in situ characterization of chemical vapor deposited SiO2

This paper reports the results of studies of the kinetics of remote (indirect) plasma enhanced low pressure CVD growth of SiO2 on Si and InP and of the in situ characterization of the electrical surface properties of InP during CVD processing. In the latter case photoluminescence was employed as a convenient and sensitive noninvasive method for characterizing surface trap densities. It was determined that, provided certain precautions are taken, the growth of SiO2 occurs in a reproducible and systematic fashion that can be expressed in an analytic form useful for growth rate prediction. Moreover, the in situ photoluminescence studies have yielded information on sample degradation resulting from heating and chemical exposure during the CVD growth.

Iyer, R.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Detailed mechanism of toluene oxidation and comparison with benzene

A detailed mechanism for the oxidation of toluene in both argon and nitrogen dilutents is presented. The mechanism was used to compute experimentally ignition delay times for shock-heated toluene-oxygen-argon mixtures with resonably good success over a wide range of initial temperatures and pressures. Attempts to compute experimentally measured concentration profiles for toluene oxidation in a turbulent reactor were partially successful. An extensive sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the reactions which control the ignition process and the rates of formation and destruction of various species. The most important step was found to be the reaction of toluene with molecular oxygen, followed by the reactions of hydroperoxyl and atomic oxygen with benzyl radicals. These findings contrast with the benzene oxidation, where the benzene-molecular oxygen reaction is quite unimportant and the reaction of phenyl with molecular oxygen dominates. In the toluene mechanism the corresponding reaction of benzyl radicals with oxygen is unimportant. Two reactions which are important in the oxidation of benzene also influence the oxidation of toluene for several conditions. These are the oxidations of phenyl and cyclopentadienyl radicals by molecular oxygen. The mechanism presented successfully computes the decrease of toluene concentration with time in the nitrogen diluted turbulent reactor. This fact, in addition to the good prediction of ignition delay times, shows that this mechanism can be used for modeling the ignition and combustion process in practical, well-mixed combustion systems.

Bittker, David A.↗