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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

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DOE OSTI2020

Comparison of fixed charge and polarizable models for predicting the structural, thermodynamic, and transport properties of molten alkali chlorides

Results from extensive molecular dynamics simulations of molten LiCl, NaCl, KCl, and RbCl over a wide range of temperatures are reported. Comparison is made between the “Polarizable Ion Model” (PIM) and the non-polarizable “Rigid Ion Model” (RIM). Densities, self-diffusivities, shear viscosities, ionic conductivities, and thermal conductivities are computed and compared with experimental data. In addition, radial distribution functions are computed from ab initio molecular dynamics simulations and compared with the two sets of classical simulations as well as experimental data. Here, the two classical models perform reasonably well at capturing structural and dynamic properties of the four molten alkali chlorides, both qualitatively and often quantitatively. With the singular exception of liquid density, for which the PIM is more accurate than the RIM, there are few clear trends to suggest that one model is more accurate than the other for the four alkali halide systems studied here.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying the Role of EMIC Wave Scattering During the 27 February 2014 Storm by RAM–SCB Simulations

Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering has been proved to be responsible for the fast loss of both radiation belt (RB) electrons and ring current (RC) protons. However, its role in the concurrent dropout of these two co–located populations remains to be quantified. In this work, we study the effect of EMIC wave scattering on both populations during the 27 February 2014 storm by employing the global physics–based RAM–SCB model. Throughout this storm event, MeV RB electrons and 100s keV RC protons experienced simultaneous dropout following the occurrence of intense EMIC waves. By implementing data–driven initial and boundary conditions, we perform simulations for both populations through the interplay with EMIC waves and compare them against Van Allen Probes observations. Notably, the results indicate that by including EMIC wave scattering loss, especially by the He–band EMIC waves, the model aligns closely with data for both populations. Additionally, we investigate the simulated pitch angle distributions (PADs) for both populations. Including EMIC wave scattering in our model predicts a 90° peaked PAD for electrons with stronger losses at lower pitch angles, while protons exhibit an isotropic PAD with enhanced losses at pitch angles above 40°. Furthermore, our model predicts considerable precipitation of both particle populations, predominantly confined to the afternoon to midnight sector (12 hr < MLT < 24 hr) during the storm's main phase, corresponding closely with the presence of EMIC waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Elucidating Electric Field-Induced Rate Promotion of Brønsted Acid-Catalyzed Alcohol Dehydration

Applied potentials have been demonstrated as a powerful tool to promote heterogeneous Brønsted acid catalysis by orders of magnitude, leveraging interfacial electric fields to stabilize protonated intermediates. However, the use of flat two-dimensional electrodes with inherently low active site densities limits the application of conventional thermochemical characterization techniques that can probe the nature of catalytic active sites. Here, we use kinetic analyses with an electrostatics-based model to elucidate the intricacies of potential-induced rate promotion, employing liquid-phase dehydration of 1-methylcyclopentanol catalyzed by carboxylic acid groups on carbon nanotubes as a probe system. By using a basket electrode to directly polarize catalyst powder, we demonstrate that thermocatalytic reaction rates can be promoted by 100,000-fold, exhibiting a log–linear dependence on applied potential with rate-potential scalings as high as 125 ± 4 mV per 10-fold rate increase. In agreement with model predictions, we show that lower ionic strengths attenuate potential sensitivity, resulting from a weakening of the interfacial electric field that interacts with the acidic proton. Furthermore, we experimentally confirm the model-predicted “isokinetic potential” (at ∼0.6 V vs Ag/AgCl)─the potential at which all rate scaling lines at various ionic strengths intersect, making the rate independent of ionic strength. Base titrations reveal that only ∼8% of the carboxylic acid sites are catalytically active, yet these same active sites are operational at the highest and lowest potentials. Collectively, our results provide a key methodology for modeling catalytic effects of electric fields, quantifying active sites under applied potential, and demonstrating fundamental principles of electric field-induced rate promotion.

Catalysts↗

DOE OSTI2016

CHLORINE ABUNDANCES IN COOL STARS

Chlorine abundances are reported in 15 evolved giants and 1 M dwarf in the solar neighborhood. The Cl abundance was measured using the vibration-rotation 1-0 P8 line of H{sup 35}Cl at 3.69851 μ m. The high-resolution L -band spectra were observed using the Phoenix infrared spectrometer on the Kitt Peak Mayall 4 m telescope. The average [{sup 35}Cl/Fe] abundance in stars with −0.72 < [Fe/H] < 0.20 is [{sup 35}Cl/Fe] = (−0.10 ± 0.15) dex. The mean difference between the [{sup 35}Cl/Fe] ratios measured in our stars and chemical evolution model values is (0.16 ± 0.15) dex. The [{sup 35}Cl/Ca] ratio has an offset of ∼0.35 dex above model predictions, suggesting that chemical evolution models are underproducing Cl at the high metallicity range. Abundances of C, N, O, Si, and Ca were also measured in our spectral region and are consistent with F and G dwarfs. The Cl versus O abundances from our sample match Cl abundances measured in planetary nebula and H ii regions. In one star where both H{sup 35}Cl and H{sup 37}Cl could be measured, a {sup 35}Cl/{sup 37}Cl isotope ratio of 2.2 ± 0.4 was found, consistent with values found in the Galactic ISM and predicted chemical evolution models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

A Kinetic Approach to Modeling the Manufacture of High Density Polyurethane Structural Foam: Foaming and Polymerization

This report details the study of PMDI structural foam and the development of a computational model to represent it. This polyurethane has a fast catalyst, such that foaming and polymerization occur simultaneously. The foam is over-packed to twice or more of its free rise density to reach the density of interest. Our approach is to combine model development closely with experiments to discover underlying physical phenomena, to parameterize models, and to validate the models once they have been developed. The model must be able to represent the expansion, filling of molds, curing, and final foam properties. PMDI is a chemically blown foam, where carbon dioxide is produced via the reaction of water and isocyanate. The isocyanate also reacts with polyol in a competing reaction, which produces the polymer. A new kinetic model is developed and implemented, which follows a simplified mathematical formalism that decouples these two reactions. The model predicts the polymerization reaction via condensation chemistry, where vitrification and glass transition temperature evolution must be included to correctly predict the temperature dependence of the kinetics. The foam gas generation kinetics are determined by tracking the molar concentration of both water and carbon dioxide. Understanding the thermal history and loads on the foam due to exothermicity and oven curing is very important to the results, since the kinetics and material properties are all sensitive to temperature. The conservation equations, including the equations of motion, an energy balance, and three rate equations are solved via a stabilized finite element method. We assume generalized-Newtonian rheology that is dependent on the extent of cure, gas fraction, and temperature. The conservation equations are combined with a level set method to determine the location of the free surface over time. Results from the model are compared to experimental flow visualization data and post-test X-ray computed tomography (CT) data for the density. Several geometries are investigated including a mock encapsulation part, two configurations of a mock structural part, and a bar geometry to specifically test the density model. We have found that the model predicts both average density and filling profiles well. However, it under predicts density gradients, especially in the gravity direction. Further model improvements are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

An evaluation of the efficacy of various coal combustion models for predicting char burnout

Coal combustion is comprised of several subprocesses including devolatilization and heterogeneous reactions of the coal char with O 2 , CO 2 , H 2 O and potentially several other species. Much effort has been put forth to develop models for these processes which vary widely in both complexity and computational cost. This work investigates the efficacy of models for devolatilization and char reactions at either end of the complexity and cost spectrums for a range of particle sizes and furnace temperatures and across coal types. The overlap of simulated devolatilization and char consumption is also examined. In the gas phase, a detailed kinetics model based on a reduced version of the GRI 3.0 mechanism is used. The Char Conversion Kinetics and an n th -order Langmuir-Hinshelwood models are considered for char oxidation. The Chemical Percolation and Devolatilization and a two-step model are considered for devolatilization. Results indicate that high-fidelity models perform better at representing particle temperature and mass data across a wide range of O 2 concentrations as well as coal types. A significant overlap in devolatilization and char consumption is observed for both char chemistry and devolatilization models.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-D-16A-06: Modeling Biological Effects of Residual Uncertainties For Stereotactic Radiosurgery

Purpose: Residual uncertainties on the order of 1-2 mm are frequently observed when delivering stereotactic radiosurgery via on-line imaging guidance with a relocatable frame. In this study, a predictive model was developed to evalute potentiral late radiation effects associated with such uncertainties. Methods: A mathematical model was first developed to correlate the peripherial isodose volume with the internal and/or setup margins for a radiosurgical target. Such a model was then integrated with a previoulsy published logistic regression normal tissue complication model for determining the symptomatic radiation necrosis rate at various target sizes and prescription dose levels. The model was tested on a cohort of 15 brain tumor and tumor resection cavity patient cases and model predicted results were compared with the clinical results reported in the literature. Results: A normalized target diameter (D{sub 0}) in term of D{sub 0} = 6V/S, where V is the volume of a radiosurgical target and S is the surface of the target, was found to correlate excellently with the peripheral isodose volume for a radiosurgical delivery (logarithmic regression R{sup 2} > 0.99). The peripheral isodose volumes were found increase rapidly with increasing uncertainties levels. In general, a 1-mm residual uncertainties as calculated to result in approximately 0.5%, 1%, and 3% increases in the symptomatic radiation necrosis rate for D{sub 0} = 1 cm, 2 cm, and 3 cm based on the prescription guideline of RTOG 9005, i.e., 21 Gy to a lesion of 1 cm in diameter, 18 Gy to a lesion 2 cm in diameter, and 15 Gy to a lesion 3 cm in diameter respectively. Conclusion: The results of study suggest more stringent criteria on residual uncertainties are needed when treating a large target such as D{sub 0}≤ 3 cm with stereotactic radiosurgery. Dr. Ma and Dr. Sahgal are currently serving on the board of international society of stereotactic radiosurgery (ISRS)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the Performance and Explainability Tradeoffs for Machine-Learning Models for Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

Predictive maintenance (PdM) has shown great potential for achieving substantial cost savings and enhancing the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in today's energy market. Among the different modeling approaches that exist, machine learning (ML) tools in particular have a demonstrated ability to handle high dimensional and multivariate data and to extract hidden relationships within data in industrial environments. While ML methods show great potential, their lack of explainability---especially for black-box models---is a major hurdle to their adoption. Moreover, considering the supposed trade-off between explainability and performance challenges, careful consideration must be made as to which of these quality aspects takes precedence in light of multiple modeling options, resource availability, and domain characteristics. The present work evaluates the performance of six ML models, each with a different degree of explainability, in classifying the conditions of circulating water pumps (CWPs) by utilizing sensor data from nuclear power plants. To determine the drivers behind the trade-offs presented by this array of models, this work also tests different combinations of CWP units as the training and testing data, degrees of data imbalance, and objective functions for hyperparameter tuning. It was found that black-box models tend to afford superior performance in cases where there are far more instances of one type of labeled data than of any other type. It is recommended that a guided procedure be followed for designing and delivering an ML system that is sufficiently explainable to all involved stakeholders.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of Inlet Throttling on Thermohydraulic Instability in a Large Scale Waterbased RCCS: A System-Level Analysis with RELAP5-3D

This paper presents results from system -level modeling of a water -based reactor cavity cooling system using RELAP5-3D. The computational model is benchmarked with experimental data from a half -scale RCCS test facility at Argonne National Laboratory. The model prediction is first compared with a two-phase oscillatory baseline experimental case where mixed accuracy is obtained. The model shows reasonable prediction of mass flow rate, pressure, and temperature but significant overprediction of void fraction. The model prediction is then compared with a fault case where the inlet of the risers is gradually reduced using a throttling valve. As the valve is closed, the model is able to predict some major flow phenomena observed in the experiment such as the dampening of oscillations, the reintroduction of oscillations, as well as boiling, flashing, and geysering in the risers. However, the timeline of these events are not well captured by the model. The model is also used to investigate the evolution of flow regime in the chimney. This work highlights that the semiempirical constitutive relations used in RELAP-3D could have a strong influence on the accuracy of the model in two-phase oscillatory flows.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Preparing for the next pandemic via transfer learning from existing diseases with hierarchical multi-modal BERT: a study on COVID-19 outcome prediction

Abstract Developing prediction models for emerging infectious diseases from relatively small numbers of cases is a critical need for improving pandemic preparedness. Using COVID-19 as an exemplar, we propose a transfer learning methodology for developing predictive models from multi-modal electronic healthcare records by leveraging information from more prevalent diseases with shared clinical characteristics. Our novel hierarchical, multi-modal model ( $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ) integrates baseline risk factors from the natural language processing of clinical notes at admission, time-series measurements of biomarkers obtained from laboratory tests, and discrete diagnostic, procedure and drug codes. We demonstrate the alignment of $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s predictions with well-established clinical knowledge about COVID-19 through univariate and multivariate risk factor driven sub-cohort analysis. $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s superior performance over state-of-the-art methods shows that leveraging patient data across modalities and transferring prior knowledge from similar disorders is critical for accurate prediction of patient outcomes, and this approach may serve as an important tool in the early response to future pandemics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A multi-physics constitutive model to predict hydrolytic aging in quasi-static behaviour of thin cross-linked polymers

The effect of hydrolytic aging on mechanical quasi-static responses of rubber-like materials, in particular, the idealized Mullins effect and permanent set have been modeled. The effect of hydrolytic damage on the mechanical integrity of the polymer matrix is modeled as the direct competition of two micro-structural phenomena (i) chain scission and (ii) reduction of cross-links. Both phenomena and their correlation were modeled and thus, the strain energy of the polymer matrix is written with respect to three independent mechanisms; i) the shrinking original matrix that has not been attacked by water, ii) conversion of the first network to a new network due to the reduction of the cross-links, and iii) energy loss from network degradation due to water attacks to polymer active agents. The proposed model satisfies the Clausius-Duhem inequality and is thus physically feasible. The model is validated with respect to sets of our experimental data and other sets available in the literature. The proposed model is based on the assumption of homogeneous diffusion and mainly relevant for thin samples. In view of its accuracy, interpret-ability, and deep insight it provides into the nature of damage accumulation, the model is a good choice for further implementation in FE applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

From core-scale experiment to reservoir-scale modeling: A scale-up approach to investigate reaction-induced permeability evolution of CO2 storage reservoir and caprock at a U.S. CO2 storage site

Mineral dissolution and secondary mineral precipitation can cause porosity and permeability changes of CO 2 storage reservoirs and caprocks after injection of CO 2 . In this paper, a 3-step approach (core-scale experiment →core-scale modeling →reservoir-scale modeling) is developed to simulate reservoir-scale porosity and permeability evolution of CO 2 storage formation and caprock at a model CO 2 storage site. The model site is based on characteristics of a real site in Mississippi, USA. Important chemical and permeability modeling parameters in the reservoir-scale model are validated by core-scale experimental and reactive transport modeling results. The reservoir-scale model predicts a maximum 3.2% permeability increase of the CO 2 storage formation and a maximum 1.1% permeability increase of the caprock after 1000 years of exposure to CO 2 -rich brine, while the core-scale model predicts 7% permeability decrease for a small CO 2 storage formation core and 296% permeability increase for a small caprock core after 180-day exposure to CO 2 -rich brine. The discrepancy between permeability results of reservoir-scale model and core-scale model is attributed to strong pH buffering effect of CO 2 storage formation with large mass of H+-consuming minerals. Therefore, using core-scale experiments/models only is not sufficient to elucidate reservoir-scale permeability evolution. Variations of key model parameters have a small effect on permeability evolution of both CO 2 storage formation and caprock, except for variations of K eq (SiO 2 (am)) and the exponent n in permeability-porosity correlation. SiO 2 (am) is a key mineral that governs permeability evolution of CO 2 storage formation and caprock, given the characteristics of the model CO 2 storage site.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Estimation of trabecular bone parameters in children from multisequence MRI using texture-based regression

Purpose: This paper presents a statistical approach for the prediction of trabecular bone parameters from low-resolution multisequence magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in children, thus addressing the limitations of high-resolution modalities such as HR-pQCT, including the significant exposure of young patients to radiation and the limited applicability of such modalities to peripheral bones in vivo. Methods: A statistical predictive model is constructed from a database of MRI and HR-pQCT datasets, to relate the low-resolution MRI appearance in the cancellous bone to the trabecular parameters extracted from the high-resolution images. The description of the MRI appearance is achieved between subjects by using a collection of feature descriptors, which describe the texture properties inside the cancellous bone, and which are invariant to the geometry and size of the trabecular areas. The predictive model is built by fitting to the training data a nonlinear partial least square regression between the input MRI features and the output trabecular parameters. Results: Detailed validation based on a sample of 96 datasets shows correlations >0.7 between the trabecular parameters predicted from low-resolution multisequence MRI based on the proposed statistical model and the values extracted from high-resolution HRp-QCT. Conclusions: The obtained results indicate the promise of the proposed predictive technique for the estimation of trabecular parameters in children from multisequence MRI, thus reducing the need for high-resolution radiation-based scans for a fragile population that is under development and growth.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Field Validation of Wake Steering Control with Wind Direction Variability: Preprint

Wake steering is a type of wind farm control strategy wherein upstream turbines are misaligned with the wind direction to redirect their wakes away from downstream turbines, increasing overall wind plant power. Wake steering is often analyzed assuming steady mean wind directions across the wind farm. However, in practice, the wind direction varies considerably over time because of large-scale weather phenomena. Wind direction variability causes wake steering controllers to increase power production less than predicted by steady state models, but more robust wake steering strategies can be designed that account for variable wind conditions. This paper compares the achieved yaw offsets and power gains from two 2-turbine wake steering experiments at a commercial wind farm with model predictions using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented model, assuming both fixed and variable wind directions. The impact of wind direction variability is modeled by including wind direction and yaw uncertainty in the FLORIS calculations. The field results match the trends predicted assuming wind direction variability. Specifically, the yaw offsets achieved in the intended control regions are lower than desired, resulting in less power gain, while a slight loss in power occurs for wind directions outside of the intended control region because of unintentional yaw misalignment. The agreement between the model and field results suggests that the wind direction variability model can be used to design wake steering controllers that are more robust to variable wind conditions present in the field.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

The Millennial model: in search of measurable pools and transformations for modeling soil carbon in the new century

Soil organic carbon (SOC) can be defined by measurable chemical and physical pools, such as mineral-associated carbon, carbon physically entrapped in aggregates, dissolved carbon, and fragments of plant detritus. Yet, most soil models use conceptual rather than measurable SOC pools. What would the traditional pool-based soil model look like if it were built today, reflecting the latest understanding of biological, chemical, and physical transformations in soils? We propose a conceptual model-the Millennial model-that defines pools as measurable entities. First, we discuss relevant pool definitions conceptually and in terms of the measurements that can be used to quantify pool size, formation, and destabilization. Then, we develop a numerical model following the Millennial model conceptual framework to evaluate against the Century model, a widely-used standard for estimating SOC stocks across space and through time. The Millennial model predicts qualitatively similar changes in total SOC in response to single factor perturbations when compared to Century, but different responses to multiple factor perturbations. We review important conceptual and behavioral differences between the Millennial and Century modeling approaches, and the field and lab measurements needed to constrain parameter values. We propose the Millennial model as a simple but comprehensive framework to model SOC pools and guide measurements for further model development.

decomposition↗

DOE OSTI2018

A hydrological emulator for global applications – HE v1.0.0

Abstract. While global hydrological models (GHMs) are very useful in exploring water resources and interactions between the Earth and human systems, their use often requires numerous model inputs, complex model calibration, and high computation costs. To overcome these challenges, we construct an efficient open-source and ready-to-use hydrological emulator (HE) that can mimic complex GHMs at a range of spatial scales (e.g., basin, region, globe). More specifically, we construct both a lumped and a distributed scheme of the HE based on the monthly abcd model to explore the tradeoff between computational cost and model fidelity. Model predictability and computational efficiency are evaluated in simulating global runoff from 1971 to 2010 with both the lumped and distributed schemes. The results are compared against the runoff product from the widely used Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Our evaluation indicates that the lumped and distributed schemes present comparable results regarding annual total quantity, spatial pattern, and temporal variation of the major water fluxes (e.g., total runoff, evapotranspiration) across the global 235 basins (e.g., correlation coefficient r between the annual total runoff from either of these two schemes and the VIC is >0.96), except for several cold (e.g., Arctic, interior Tibet), dry (e.g., North Africa) and mountainous (e.g., Argentina) regions. Compared against the monthly total runoff product from the VIC (aggregated from daily runoff), the global mean Kling–Gupta efficiencies are 0.75 and 0.79 for the lumped and distributed schemes, respectively, with the distributed scheme better capturing spatial heterogeneity. Notably, the computation efficiency of the lumped scheme is 2 orders of magnitude higher than the distributed one and 7 orders more efficient than the VIC model. A case study of uncertainty analysis for the world's 16 basins with top annual streamflow is conducted using 100 000 model simulations, and it demonstrates the lumped scheme's extraordinary advantage in computational efficiency. Our results suggest that the revised lumped abcd model can serve as an efficient and reasonable HE for complex GHMs and is suitable for broad practical use, and the distributed scheme is also an efficient alternative if spatial heterogeneity is of more interest.

Liu, Yaling↗

DOE OSTI2019

Selective Information Extraction Strategies for Cancer Pathology Reports with Convolutional Neural Networks

To trust model predictions, it is important to ensure new data scored by the model comes from the same population used for model training. If the model is used to score new data different than the model’s training data, then predictions and model performance metrics cannot be trusted. Identifying and excluding these anomalous data points is an important task when using models in the real world. Traditional machine learning algorithms and classifiers don’t have the capability to abstain in this case. Here we propose a data-novelty detection algorithm for the Convolutional Neural Network classifier, yielding a rejection score for each new data point scored. It is a post-modeling procedure which examines the distribution of convolution filters to determine if the prediction should be trusted. We apply this algorithm to an information extraction model for a natural language text corpus. We evaluated the algorithm performance using a primary cancer site classification model applied to cancer pathology reports. Results demonstrate that the algorithm is an effective way to exclude cancer pathology reports from model scoring when they do not contain the expected information necessary to accurately classify the primary cancer type.

Yoon, Hong-Jun↗

DOE OSTI2014

Techniques for Automated Performance Analysis

The performance of a particular HPC code depends on a multitude of variables, including compiler selection, optimization flags, OpenMP pool size, file system load, memory usage, MPI configuration, etc. As a result of this complexity, current predictive models have limited applicability, especially at scale. We present a formulation of scientific codes, nodes, and clusters that reduces complex performance analysis to well-known mathematical techniques. Building accurate predictive models and enhancing our understanding of scientific codes at scale is an important step towards exascale computing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗