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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

The Relationship Between Workload and Performance in Air Traffic Control: Exploring the Influence of Levels of Automation and Variation in Task Demand

In an air traffic environment, task demand is dynamic. However, previous research has largely considered the association of task demand and controller performance using conditions of stable task demand. Further, there is a comparatively restricted understanding of the influence of task demand transitions on workload and performance in association with different types and levels of automation that are available to controllers. This study used an air traffic control simulation to investigate the influence of task demand transitions, and two conditions of automation, on workload and efficiency-related performance. Findings showed that both the direction of the task demand variation and the amount of automation influenced the relationship between workload and performance. Findings are discussed in relation to capacity and arousal theories. Further research is needed to enhance understanding of demand transition and workload history effects on operator experience and performance, in both air traffic control and other safety-critical domains.

function allocation↗

Time-Varying Modification of Reference Model for Adaptive Control with Performance Optimization

This paper presents a new adaptive control ap- proach that involves a performance optimization objective. The control synthesis involves the design of a performance optimizing adaptive controller from a subset of control inputs. The resulting effect of the performance optimizing adaptive controller is to modify the initial reference model into a time-varying reference model which satisfies the performance optimization requirement obtained from an optimal control problem. The time-varying reference model modification is accomplished by the real-time solutions of the time-varying Riccati and Sylvester equations coupled with the least-squares parameter estimation of the sen- sitivities of the performance metric. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by an application of maneuver load alleviation control for a flexible aircraft.

Adaptive Control↗

Evaluating Expected Performance and Graceful Degradation in Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs) have largely garnered interest due to lower cost and new technical capabilities. However, another important attribute in DSMs is the potential of graceful degradation where a failure of one or more spacecraft (or instruments) in the DSM can reduce total performance, but the remaining functional spacecraft can maintain a limited science return. The potential for retaining some mission value in the event of partial failures leads to enhanced lifetime value. Here, an approach is developed to analyze graceful degradation and performance of DSM used for Earth observation. The system performance is defined through metrics of coverage and average revisit time of points of interest. Graceful degradation is quantified through total change and rate of change in performance metrics with increasing sub-system failures over the lifetime of a mission. An Expected Performance measure is formulated for conducting comparison of DSM architectures for early stage conceptual mission design and trade studies.

Distributed Spacecraft Missions↗

Evaluating Expected Performance and Graceful Degradation in Distributed Spacecraft Missions

Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs) have largely garnered interest due to lower cost and new technical capabilities. However, another important attribute in DSMs is the potential of graceful degradation where a failure of one or more spacecraft (or instruments) in the DSM can reduce total performance, but the remaining functional spacecraft can maintain a limited science return. The potential for retaining some mission value in the event of partial failures leads to enhanced lifetime value. Here, an approach is developed to analyze graceful degradation and performance of DSM used for Earth observation. The system performance is defined through metrics of coverage and average revisit time of points of interest. Graceful degradation is quantified through total change and rate of change in performance metrics with increasing sub-system failures over the lifetime of a mission. An Expected Performance measure is formulated for conducting comparison of DSM architectures for early stage conceptual mission design and trade studies.

Distributed Spacecraft Missions; constellations; p↗

Performance Assessments and Comparisons of S-NPP and NOAA-20 (JPSS-1) VIIRS On-Orbit Calibration

The first Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument has been in operation for more than 6 years on-board the S-NPP satellite and the second instrument, with the same design and performance requirements, was launched in November, 2017 on-board the JPSS-1 satellite (named NOAA-20 after reaching its orbit) and is currently in normal operation conditions. This paper provides a brief description of VIIRS on-orbit calibration and characterization activities and presents performance assessments and comparisons of S-NPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS using data collected from their on-board calibrators (OBC) and regularly scheduled lunar observations. Results show that NOAA-20 VIIRS is performing as well or better than S-NPP VIIRS in all of the key performance metrics. The NOAA-20 reflective solar bands, including the day-night band, have experienced less than 1% change in gain in the first 250 days since launch and did not suffer from the contamination related rapid degradation experienced by S-NPP VIIRS. Some of the NOAA20 thermal emissive bands had larger than expected gain degradation after launch due to ice buildup on the dewar window of the long-wave IR focal plane assembly but a mid-mission outgassing operation was able to restore their gains and maintain stable behavior. Though this study is focused on the sensor's key performance parameters, such as detector responses (gains), signal-to-noise ratios, and noise-equivalent temperature differences, challenges identified and lessons learned through different phases of on-orbit calibration and characterization are also discussed.

DNB↗

Optimized Off-Design Performance of Flexible Wings with Continuous Trailing-Edge Flaps

This work assesses the potential aerodynamic performance benefits of a variable-camber, continuous-trailing-edge flap system on a generic transport aircraft at off-design conditions. A process to optimize transport wings while addressing static aeroelastic effects is presented. To establish a proper baseline, a transport wing is first aerodynamically optimized at a mid-cruise flight condition using an inviscid, aeroelastic analysis tool. The optimized wing is then analyzed at off-design cruise conditions. The optimization is repeated at these off-design conditions to determine how much performance is lost by the wing optimized solely for the mid-cruise condition. The full-span flap system is then adapted to improve performance of the mid-cruise-optimized wing at these off-design conditions. The measured improvement is quantified by a comparison with wings designed specifically for the off-design conditions. To evaluate the effects of aeroelasticity on the effectiveness of the flap system, this entire process is performed on both a conventionally stiff wing and a modern, more flexible wing. The results indicate that the flap system allows for recovery of near-optimal performance throughout cruise. The flap system is found to be advantageous even for modern wings with increased flexibility.

Rodriguez, David L.↗

Using RotCFD to Predict Isolated XV-15 Rotor Performance

Experimental techniques to measure rotorcraft aerodynamic performance are widely used. However, the need exists to understand the limitations of ground based testing by augmenting the analysis of experimental test results with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling. The immediate objective of the present research is to develop an XV-15 Tilt Rotor Research Aircraft rotor model for investigation of wind tunnel wall interference. The predicted performance of the XV-15 during various flight modes is compared to theoretical and experimental data. This research is performed to support wind tunnel tests scheduled for 2016. A mid-fidelity RANS solver, RotCFD, is used with an unsteady, incompressible flow model and a realizable k- turbulence model. The rotor is modeled using an actuator disk model or blade element model with a momentum source approach. In RotCFD the setup, grid generation and running of cases is faster than many CFD codes which makes it a useful engineering tool. Performance predictions need not be as accurate as high-fidelity CFD codes, as long as wall effects can be properly simulated. Being able to accurately predict unsteady rotorcraft performance on desktop-class computers provides a quicker analysis of highly complex flows during the initial design phase.

CFD↗

Comparison of Several Global Mixing Performance Metrics for High-Speed Fuel Injectors

To experimentally assess and compare the mixing performance of high-speed fuel injectors for scramjet engines, quantitative global metrics are needed. The one-dimensional metric most commonly used to assess the degree of mixing completeness at a given downstream station is the mixing efficiency parameter. The experimental determination of the mixing efficiency parameter requires measurement of the spatial distributions of both the fuel mass fraction and the mass flux. Standard in-stream gas sampling techniques can be used to measure the fuel mass fraction distribution, however the mass flux distribution is not easily determined experimentally because it requires the measurement of three independent aerothermodynamic variables in addition to the mixture composition. For this reason, several metrics that can be calculated from the fuel distribution alone are commonly used to assess mixing performance. Because these other metrics do not provide a mass flux-weighted measure of the local degree of mixing completeness, they may not correlate well with the mixing efficiency parameter. Therefore, if the substitute metrics are to be used to compare the mixing performance of candidate fuel injector concepts, it is important to understand their relationships to the mixing efficiency parameter in a representative scramjet combustor flowfield. This work investigates the relationships between the mixing efficiency parameter and several substitute metrics that are able to be measured with the current experimental setup of the Enhanced Injection and Mixing Project at the NASA Langley Research Center for baseline strut and ramp injectors. The results of these comparisons have revealed that it is possible to glean different (i.e., incorrect) conclusions about which injector is the better mixer when the substitute mixing performance metrics are used instead of the mixing efficiency parameter, thereby highlighting the importance of mass flux-weighted mixing performance metrics.

Ground, Cody R.↗

Hybrid Propulsion In-Situ Resource Utilization Test Facility Results for Performance Characterization

Hybrid propulsion presents a promising alternative to conventional systems for in-space propulsion applications using In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP). A hybrid propulsion test facility has been built at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) with the capability of evaluating ISPP oxidizers (gaseous mixtures of O2 and CO2) and modifying fuel type and chamber geometry. This work is the result of a continuing e ort at JPL to characterize the burn characteristics and performance of different propellant combinations and motor configurations in order to re ne and support preliminary designs. Twelve tests using gaseous oxygen and two paraffin based fuels (Black Paraffin and SP1X) from the 2015 campaign are presented. Different reduction techniques are compared in an e ort to determine the uncertainty associated with deriving a regression rate law and evaluating c* efficiency with the collected data.Hybrid motors are mechanically and chemically simple propulsion systems that have the potential forlong-term storability with low gross mass. The oxidizer (such as gaseous O2) can be produced in-situ,signicantly reducing the landed mass. The solid, inert fuel is stored in the combustion chamber in its most dense state, further reducing the total structural mass and volume. Considerable eorts have been focusedon ISPP for Environmental Control and Life Support Systems (ECLSS) and human exploration of Mars.At optimum oxidizer to fuel ratio (O/F), about 70% of the total propellant mass could be produced in-situ.Paran based fuels exhibit a fast regression rate behavior due to the formation of a thin liquid layer on thefuel surface.1 A high burn rate is necessary in order to reach a medium to high thrust range. In order toachieve an O/F ratio close to optimum performance (between 2.1 and 2.7 for the O2/Paran combination),the fuel mass ow needs to be suciently large compared to the oxidizer ow. The slow regression rateof classical hybrid rocket fuels leads to long fuel grain designs or complicated multi-port structures. Singleport, high regression rate fuels have the potential to reduce residual propellant mass and have a grainlength to diameter ratio (L/D) more favorable for packaging. However, hybrid motors remain at a fairly lowTechnology Readiness Level (TRL), and solutions to accurately measure and increase performance are stilllacking, especially for small-scale motors that are constrained to tight packaging.A total of 12 hotres were performed and analyzed in this campaign. All of these tests were conductedat pressures above the critical pressure of paran wax, approximately 6.7 bar (97 psi).2 Three dierentmotor congurations were explored while conserving a single cylindrical port fuel grain. Additionally, sincethrottling is a crucial advantage of hybrid rocket propulsion systems, low oxidizer mass ows (60 - 100 g/s)and uxes (5 - 30 g/cm2/s) were investigated to determine the performance impact in this regime.

Mechentel, F. S.↗

Electrospray Thruster Performance with Microfabricated Emitter Arrays and Indium Propellant

The feasibility of a microfabricated indium-fueled electrospray thruster with excellent performance was demonstrated. High efficiency electrospray thrusters with microfabricated components are under development for very compact, distributable propulsion systems that can be employed on both very small and large spacecraft with 10X improvement over SOA in mass, volume and specific impulse The critical components of this technology are the microfabricated emitter arrays and the capillary force driven indium feed system. Grey scale electron-beam lithography patterning and reactive ion dry etching provided the required micron-scale etch precision and uniformity across an array of 400 emitters in 1 cm2. Initial tests of single microfabricated silicon emitters demonstrated better performance than industry standard single emitters and the performance required to achieve 200 micronewtons when scaled up to a thruster with 400 emitters in 1 cm2. Arrays of emitters tested in a preliminary prototype Microfluidic Electrospray Propulsion (MEP) thruster assembly demonstrated stable performance at estimated thrust levels of 5, 50, and 120 µN at extraction voltages less than 4 kV. Current stability was within 0.15 % at 120 µN with only 1.5% of the emitter current collected by the extractor electrode. Post-test inspections revealed that more than 99% of the 400 emitters were electrospraying during the test. Specific impulse was estimated to be >3100 s from measurements of total charge and consumed indium mass at an emitter voltage of 1470 V. The results of this investigation suggest that microfabricated indium electrospray thruster technology is both feasible and capable of excellent performance as a highly compact microthruster.

Marrese-Reading, Colleen M.↗

Investigating Surveillance Performance for UAS Detect-and-Avoid Systems

Most unmanned aircraft systems will be required to be equipped with a detect-and-avoid system that is capable of maintaining appropriate separation from other aircraft. One of the critical components of detect-and-avoid systems is a surveillance system that identifies potential threat aircraft in real time and tracks these aircraft so that their future trajectories may be used to predict conflicts. The performance of the detect-and-avoid system generally depends on technical parameters of the surveillance system, such as the surveillance range. The quantitative requirements for detect-and-avoid systems will be determined to meet safety metrics for the operation of unmanned aircraft systems in the National Airspace System. This study employs a sensor model comprised of the surveillance range, and horizontal and vertical fields of regard that mainly characterize the overall performance of a surveillance system. In this study, potential metrics for evaluating the performance of a surveillance system were investigated through fast-time simulation with a traffic scenario that included both proposed unmanned aircraft flights and historical visual flight rule aircraft tracks. Using the simulation results, an overall analysis of encounter geometry highlights the encounter characteristics that relate surveillance parameters to safety metrics and detect-and-avoid system performance. Then, given several candidate surveillance volumes, performance and safety metrics are derived; these metrics include the ratio of undetected and late-detected violations and the time to violation at first detection. These example metrics demonstrate the utility of the database of encounters created in this work, a database which will be useful in the derivation of required detect-and-avoid surveillance system requirements.

Lee, Seung Man↗

High Velocity Impact Performance of a Dual Layer Thermal Protection System for the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle

The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) is currently planned on being released from its Micro-Meteorite/Orbital Debri (MM/OD) shielding housing about two days before the Earth entry phase. This leaves the EEV exposed to incoming MM/OD impacts, potentially damaging the heat shield and compromising its Entry, Decent, and Landing (EDL) integrity. Currently, two materials are proposed to comprise the MSR-EEV heat shield, a dual layer material Heat-shield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET) and Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA). PICA has been well characterized for OD class impacts, ~7km/s high mass impacts, from previous testing done in the Orion program, but hasn't under-gone extensive MM impact testing. HEEET is a rela-tively new material with minimal prior testing in re-gards to High Velocity Impacts (HVI). In order to in-form selectability of a material, it is crucial to under-stand the material performance when faced with an HVI, directly affecting mission success probability.The current measure of a Thermal Protection Sys-tem's (TPS) performance against an HVI is evaluating a thermally sized material against its derived Balistic Limit Equation (BLE). A BLE is generated empirically from multiple shots of HVI testing, and is used as a first order method in evaluating TPS's performance against the expected MM/OD environment. This method has proved useful for previous uniform densi-ty TPS materials, but has never been validated against a dual layer recession material such as HEEET. Testing in the MSR program for FY19 has a re-quirement to assess the effects of a dual layer TPS by testing various thicknesses of HEEET's Recession Layer, seen in Figure 1. From this data, BLE's will be derived for the individual thickness ratio samples, as well as the material as a whole to evaluate if a heritage form of the BLE can capture the complex physics associated with a dual layer system. Crater morpholo-gy will also be assessed with post-test Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) methods such as CT scanning to visualize if a BLE can well predict the associated pene-tration depths, since a BLE assumes full disinigration of the impacting particle and is generally only used to size a spherical crater ? disregarding any shrapenel effects from a high density impactor.To inform this analysis, expected MM environ-ments from the Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) and analytical equations for mass flux of incoming MM were evaluated against the notional MSR-EEV trajectory [1]. Using those dispersions, a monte-carlo was run to determine the most probable particle pa-rameters, as well as the riskiest in terms of full bondline penetration. From these probabilities, a test matrix was designed to test against bounding cases for the various parameters of the BLE: projectile density, projectile mass, projectile velocity, and the impact angle.This presentation will discuss the performance of the dual layer TPS material HEEET against a wide range of impact kinetic energies and densitites, as well as the comparison of HEEET to PICA in terms of MM/OD performance and selectability criteria.

Libben, B. J.↗

Evolving Management Strategies to Improve NASA Flagship's Cost and Schedule Performance: LUVOIR as a Case Study

The large ultraviolet optical infrared surveyor (LUVOIR) study process has brought to fruition an extremely exciting scientific mission concept. The 3.5 year LUVOIR study duration enabled an unprecedented level of scientific, engineering, and technology thoroughness prior to the Astro2020 Decadal. This detail also shed light on many technical and programmatic challenges for efficiently developing a mission of this scale within the context of NASA’s flagships cost and schedule performances to date. While NASA’s flagships perform exquisitely once on orbit, there is understandable growing frustration in their development cost and schedule overruns. We felt it incumbent upon ourselves to ask how we could improve on delivering LUVOIR (or any of NASA’s future flagships) on schedule and on budget, not just for the next mission, but for all NASA large strategic missions to come. We researched past and current NASA flagship’s lessons learned publications and other large government projects that pointed to some systemic challenges that will only grow with larger and more complex strategic missions. Our findings pointed us to some ways that could potentially evolve NASA’s current flagship management practices to help improve on their development cost and schedule performance despite their growing complexity. This paper briefly comments on the motivations for NASA’s flagships and on the science motivations for a LUVOIR-like mission. We argue the incentives for improving NASA’s flagships development cost and schedule performance. We review the specific additional challenges of NASA’s flagships to acknowledge their specific issues. We then examine the most repeated systemic challenges we found from previous NASA flagships and other large government projects lessons learned/observed. Lastly, we offer recommendations to tackle these repeated systemic challenges facing NASA’s flagships. The recommendations culminate into a proactive integrated development and funding framework to enable improving the execution of NASA’s future flagship’s cost and schedule performance.

Crooke, Julie A.↗

The Relationship between Workload, Performance and Fatigue in a Short-Haul Airline

Short-haul flights are associated with irregular work schedules and increased workload, due to frequent takeoffs and landings. We examined the relationship between pilot workload, performance and subjective fatigue during normal short-haul operations. Ninety airline pilots (8 female), mean age 33 (±8 years) completed a NASA-Task Load Index (NASA-TLX), a Psychomotor Vigilance Task (PVT; a reaction time test sensitive to sleep loss) and a Samn-Perelli (SP) fatigue scale, over a period of 20 duty days at top-of-descent on 2762 short-haul flights. The duty days included either 2 or 4 flights per day starting at different times as scheduled during normal operations. Workload was measured using the six NASA-TLX scales: mental demand, physical demand, temporal demand, effort, performance and frustration. Lapses (reaction times [RT] > 500ms) were calculated for the PVT. Spearman correlations were calculated to identify relationships between the NASA-TLX, PVT lapses, and SP. The six scales of NASA-TLX were positively correlated with the PVT lapses (p < 0.01) showing an increase in workload when lapses increased. There was a positive correlation between subjective fatigue as measured by the SP fatigue scale and each of the six scales of NASA-TLX (p < 0.001) suggesting that pilots reported higher workload when perceived levels of fatigue were higher. Of the six workload scales, mental demand and performance were rated the highest (mental: M = 40.99, SD = 20.32; performance: M = 41.61, SD = 20.71) and effort was rated the lowest (M = 15.59, SD = 8.98). Preliminary analyses suggest that high workload is associated with poorer PVT performance and increased self-reported fatigue in this population of short-haul pilots. Future studies should explore how other workload factors (i.e. flight hours, time of day) influence self-reported and objective fatigue measures.

TLX↗

A Validation Study of the Performance Prediction Methodology of the Early Warning Metrics

Complex projects frequently experience delays and develop backlogs of their project control milestones during the acquisition and development lifecycles. In response, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) formed an independent group of Subject Matter Experts (SMEs) to monitor the execution performance of GSFC Flight projects and instruments that are under development. The SME team’s objective is to generate data driven performance-based indicators that quantify the degree to which projects are meeting their respective schedule and budget commitments. One of these performance-based indicators, the Early Warning Metrics, provides performance forecasts and insight to project performance relative to historical successful projects. Herein this paper describes the purpose and utility of the Early Warning Metrics. Additionally, the initial prediction method used in the creation of the metrics is described along with its validity and the validity of comparable prediction methods.

Holloman, Sherrica↗

Shape Validation and RF Performance of Inflatable Antennas

Inflatable aperture antennas are an emerging technology that is being investigated for potential use in science and exploration missions. In particular, for missions to Mars and beyond, large deployable aperture antennas can provide the antenna gain required for high data rate communications, where the necessary antenna diameter exceeds the available volume of typical launch vehicle platforms. As inflatable aperture antennas have not been proven fully qualified for space missions, the author's Master's Thesis assessed the Ruze equation in characterizing this antenna technology. Inflatable aperture antennas do not follow a parabolic shape, and so the Ruze equation is not applicable due to the macroscopic shape errors of this technology. Therefore, geometric evaluations of the surface profile cannot simply correlate antenna gain degradation with the root-mean-square shape error with a parabolic surface. Consequently, the focus of this work was to derive an accurate mathematical model of an inflatable aperture antenna in order to characterize its Radio Frequency (RF) performance. Calculus of Variations methodologies were used to derive the surface profile shape of the inflatable aperture antenna. Physical Optics techniques were used to generate the antenna pattern profile. Validation testing of the predicted inflatable antenna shape model was performed through use of Laser Radar metrology measurements on an inflatable test article. Assessments of the RF performance of the inflatable aperture antenna, compared with nominally shaped paraboloidal antennas, were obtained through simulations of both technologies using a common diameter, depth, and arc length. Assessments of the RF performance of the inflatable aperture antenna was also performed against itself for changes in distance of the antenna feed location in the axial direction. Whereas the Ruze equation is limited to assessing gain reduction, this effort will also assess beam spreading and first side lobe angle and magnitude. The ability to characterize the RF response of this antenna will provide for an improved understanding of this technology. The accurate representation of the shape of this type of antenna technology will help to identify the most appropriate ways in which this technology could be utilized in planning future communication architectures for NASA missions to Mars and beyond.

Welch, Bryan W.↗

Shape Validation and RF Performance of Inflatable Antennas

Inflatable aperture antennas are an emerging technology that is being investigated for potential use in science and exploration missions. In particular, for missions to Mars and beyond, large deployable aperture antennas can provide the antenna gain required for high data rate communications, where the necessary antenna diameter exceeds the available volume of typical launch vehicle platforms. As inflatable aperture antennas have not been proven fully qualified for space missions, the author's Master's Thesis assessed the Ruze equation in characterizing this antenna technology. Inflatable aperture antennas do not follow a parabolic shape, and so the Ruze equation is not applicable due to the macroscopic shape errors of this technology. Therefore, geometric evaluations of the surface profile cannot simply correlate antenna gain degradation with the root-mean square shape error with a parabolic surface. Consequently, the focus of this work was to derive an accurate mathematical model of an inflatable aperture antenna to in order to characterize its Radio Frequency (RF) performance. Calculus of Variations methodologies were used to derive the surface profile shape of the inflatable aperture antenna. Physical Optics techniques were used to generate the antenna pattern profile. Validation testing of the predicted inflatable antenna shape model was performed through use of Laser Radar metrology measurements on an inflatable test article. Assessments of the RF performance of the inflatable aperture antenna, compared with nominally shaped paraboloidal antennas, were obtained through simulations of both technologies using a common diameter, depth, and arc length. Assessments of the RF performance of the inflatable aperture antenna was also performed against itself for changes in distance of the antenna feed location in the axial direction. Whereas the Ruze equation is limited to assessing gain reduction, this effort will also assess beam spreading and first side lobe angle and magnitude. The ability to characterize the RF response of this antenna will provide for an improved understanding of this technology. The accurate representation of the shape of this type of antenna technology will help to identify the most appropriate ways in which this technology could be utilized in planning future communication architectures for NASA missions to Mars and beyond.

Welch, Bryan↗

Risk and Performance Assessment of Generic Mission Architectures: Showcasing the Artemis Mission

A has initiated a strong push to return face. In this work, we astronaut assess performance and risk for proposed mission architectures using a new Mission Architecture Risk Assessment (MARA) tool. The MARA tool can produce statistics about the availability of components and overall performance of the mission considering potential failures of any of its components. In a Monte Carlo approach, the tool repeats the mission simulation multiple times while a random generator lets modules fail according to their failure rates. The results provide statistically meaningful insights into the overall performance of the chosen architecture. A given mission architecture can be freely replicated in the tool, with the mission timeline and basic characteristics of employed mission modules (habitats, rovers, power generation units, etc.) specified in a configuration file. Crucially, failure rates for each module need to be known or estimated. The tool performs an event-driven simulation of the mission and accounts for random failure events. Failed modules can be repaired, which takes crew time but restores operations. In addition to tracking individual modules, MARA can assess the availability of predefined functions throughout the mission. For instance, the function of resource collection would require a rover to collect the resources, a power generation unit to charge the rover, and a resource processing module. Together, the modules that are required for a given function are called a functional group. Similarly, we can assess how much crew time is available to achieve a mission benefit (e.g. research, building a base, etc) as opposed to spending crew time on repairs. Here we employ the method on the proposed NASA Artemis mission. Artemis aims to return United States astronauts to the lunar surface by 2024. Results provide insights into mission failure probabilities, up- and downtime for individual modules and crew-time resources spent on the repair of failed modules. The tool also allows us to tweak the mission architecture in order to find setups that produce more favorable mission performance. As such, the tool can be an aid in improving the mission architect abling cost-benefit analysis for mission improvement.

Rumpf, Clemens M.↗