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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Short-term electricity load forecasting: Application-driven evaluation of machine learning models across spatial and temporal scales
As we transition towards a decarbonized economy, the integration of variable renewable energy resources and new demands (e.g., electric vehicles, heat pumps) into the electricity grid places unprecedented pressure on grid operators to effectively anticipate and manage peak load. In this context, machine learning algorithms are proving to be indispensable for accurate short-term load forecasting, a crucial task to address these challenges. This study benchmarks 6 machine learning algorithms, including three neural networks and three tree-based algorithms, across various levels of spatial aggregation and time horizons (1, 4, 8, 24, and 48 h). The central contribution of this work is the comparison and analysis of load forecasting models not only based on statistical metrics, but also based on a novel error metric, which evaluates the cost implications of forecast errors for power system stakeholders. Results show that tree-based models outperform neural networks, based on statistical metrics, and yield less skewed error distributions for most spatial scales. However, through the lens of the novel error metric, neural networks are the more competitive choice, especially for forecast horizons that exceed 8 h. The study concludes with actionable recommendations to grid operators and highlights the need for the development of error metrics that link forecasting accuracy to operational costs. To promote transparency and open science, the datasets and Python code are open-sourced via a supplementary repository.
A Comprehensive Chemistry Evaluation and Diagnostics Package for E3SM – ChemDyg Version 1.1.0
The Chemistry Evaluation and Diagnostics Package (ChemDyg) is an open-source tool designed for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the U.S. Department of Energy. ChemDyg facilitates routine evaluation, tailored development, and in-depth analysis of atmospheric chemistry through its modular architecture, allowing users to compare model outputs with observational data. Version 1.1.0 introduces a robust set of diagnostic capabilities, including climatology, time evolution of key tracers, diurnal and annual cycle analyses, and extensive budget diagnostics. These features help identify model discrepancies and enhance the representation of atmospheric chemistry in E3SM. Each self-contained diagnostic set includes dedicated scripts and documentation for ease of use. The interactive HTML output improves data accessibility, accelerating chemistry model development. Additionally, ChemDyg's flexible framework allows for customization, enabling users to create unique diagnostic sets for specific scientific contributions.
Development of a River Dynamical Core for E3SM to simulate compound flooding on Exascale-class heterogeneous supercomputers
Flooding events pose significant risk to human life, property, and infrastructure. Physically-consistent quantification of altered flood risks in global models requires hyper-resolution (~1 km) or fine flood simulations using two-dimensional (2D) physics schemes, both of which are unavailable in the current generation Earth System Models. Here, in this work, we have developed the River Dynamical Core (RDycore), which is an open-source, 2D shallow water equation (SWE) library for the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). RDycore uses PETSc and libCEED libraries that allows it to run efficiently on CPUs and GPUs, as well as select a time-integration algorithm at runtime without requiring any code modifications. RDycore achieves spatial error convergence rates for problems with analytical and manufactured solutions similar to those reported previously in the literature, or consistent with the implemented first-order spatial discretization scheme. RDycore's accuracy in predicting flooding for a well-studied dam break problem is comparable to existing SWE models. For a problem with 471 million grid cells, RDycore achieves a speedup of 6.6x and 7.6x on GPUs compared to CPUs when using 320 compute nodes on DOE's Perlmutter and Frontier supercomputers, respectively. The one-way coupling of the RDycore library within E3SM is demonstrated by performing multiple 5-day flooding simulations during Hurricane Harvey driven by five precipitation datasets. The E3SM--RDycore simulations at 30 m spatial resolution accurately simulate maximum water height during the hurricane when benchmarked against a previously published study and achieve a speedup of 15x (Perlmutter) and 21x (Frontier) on GPUs relative to CPUs. The work presented here is the foundational step in providing hardware and algorithmic portability framework for simulating kilometer-scale river dynamics within E3SM.
Dispatch optimization of electric thermal energy storage within System Advisor Model
A stand-alone electric thermal energy storage (ETES) system converts low-value electricity into heat using resistance heating elements. During periods of high-value electricity, an ETES system uses a thermodynamic power cycle to convert stored thermal energy back to electricity. These dispatchable systems derive value from their ability to store energy when prices are low and generate electricity when prices are favorable, i.e., energy arbitrage. Consequently, dispatch optimization of system operations, through maximizing revenue subject to system constraints, is essential to evaluate the economic value of a particular system design. While stand-alone ETES systems offer potential advantages as dispatchable grid storage technologies, there is a lack of a neutral third-party, publicly available, open-source model to evaluate the performance, dispatch, and financial viability of these systems. To address this problem, we have developed a techno-economic model for stand-alone ETES systems, within National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) System Advisor Model (SAM). We implement a mixed-integer linear program to determine an ETES optimal operating schedule that maximizes electricity sales less maintenance costs caused by operation and cycling given temporal-varying grid electricity prices. Our contributions include a mixed-integer linear program for energy arbitrage of an ETES system, an ETES performance model through a publicly-available software (i.e., SAM), and an exercise of our model through case studies that compare ETES operational strategies and annual financial metrics. With our dispatch optimization model, we were able to improve revenue by 20% compared to a myopic heuristic while reducing the operational cost of the ETES system through decreases in cycle starts, cycles per day, and heater starts.
Dynamic modeling of heat pipe integrated thermal battery latent heat storage system experiment validation
A heat pipe integrated thermal battery system has been constructed to investigate a high-temperature latent heat thermal energy storage technology that takes advantage of near isothermal operation of latent heat storage and heat pipes to potentially enable high-energy isothermal heat storage. A dynamic model constructed in Modelica has been validated, showing errors between 2.5 °C–39.7 °C across 10-h to 47-h simulations against experiment results, showing good prediction capability of experiment output, especially against phase change time. Model calibrations showing vessel heat-up capability of 3 kW and heat pipes combining to provide 600 W each during experiment operation validate experiment circumstances including reduced material loading and reduced power capability. The experiment configuration uses an Al-Mg-Zn eutectic metal as the storage material, heated via heat tape wrapped around the vessel and guide tubes to bring the system to operation range (>400 °C) and to simulate charging heat exchange, respectively, with heat rejection occurring through the surfaces of the material and facilitated via guide tubes with less insulation wrapping. The model is available in the open-source repository HYBRID on Github.
Detecting technological maturity from bibliometric patterns
We report the capability to identify emergent technologies based upon easily accessed open-source indicators, such as publications, is important for decision-makers in industry and government. The scientific contribution of this work is the proposition of a machine learning approach to the detection of the maturity of emerging technologies based on publication counts. Time-series of publication counts have universal features that distinguish emerging and growing technologies. We train an artificial neural network classifier, a supervised machine learning algorithm, upon these features to predict the maturity (emergent vs. growth) of an arbitrary technology. With a training set comprised of 22 technologies we obtain a classification accuracy ranging from 58.3% to 100% with an average accuracy of 84.6% for six test technologies. To enhance classifier performance, we augmented the training corpus with synthetic time-series technology life cycle curves, formed by calculating weighted averages of curves in the original training set. Training the classifier on the synthetic data set resulted in improved accuracy, ranging from 83.3% to 100% with an average accuracy of 90.4% for the test technologies. The performance of our classifier exceeds that of competing machine learning approaches in the literature, which report an average classification accuracy of only 85.7% at maximum. Moreover, in contrast to current methods our approach does not require subject matter expertise to generate training labels, and it can be automated and scaled.
A systematic method for selecting molecular descriptors as features when training models for predicting physiochemical properties
Machine learning has proven to be a powerful tool for accelerating biofuel development. Although numerous models are available to predict a range of properties using chemical descriptors, there is a trade-off between interpretability and performance. Neural networks provide predictive models with high accuracy at the expense of some interpretability, while simpler models such as linear regression often lack in accuracy. In addition to model architecture, feature selection is also critical for developing interpretable and accurate predictive models. We present a method for systematically selecting molecular descriptor features and developing interpretable machine learning models without sacrificing accuracy. Our method simplifies the process of selecting features by reducing feature multicollinearity and enables discoveries of new relationships between global properties and molecular descriptors. To demonstrate our approach, we developed models for predicting melting point, boiling point, flash point, yield sooting index, and net heat of combustion with the help of the Tree-based Pipeline Optimization Tool (TPOT). For training, we used publicly available experimental data for up to 8351 molecules. Our models accurately predict various molecular properties for organic molecules (mean absolute percent error (MAPE) ranges from 3.3% to 10.5%) and provide a set of features that are well-correlated to the property. This method enables researchers to explore sets of features that significantly contribute to the prediction of the property, offering new scientific insights. To help accelerate early stage biofuel research and development, we also integrated the data and models into a open-source, interactive web tool.
Quantitative investigation of sooting dynamics in droplet combustion using an automated image analysis algorithm
This paper reports an image analysis approach using a newly-developed open-source program to extract quantitative measurements of soot volume fraction (SVF) from digital video images of burning n-heptane droplets. The automated program developed in this work can analyze images of fixed and untethered droplets to quantify sooting dynamics. The images analyzed in the program were taken from experiments carried out in the Multi-user Droplet Combustion Apparatus (MDCA) onboard the International Space Station (ISS). In these experiments, video imaging of burning droplets was obtained using backlighting by a laser diode with a wavelength of 653 nm. Here, the light was collimated before it passed through the droplet and soot-containing region, after which the light was then attenuated and projected onto the camera’s sensors. This technique facilitates the measurements of SVF based on the principles of the full field light extinction method (FFLEM). The measurements provide quantitative data that reveal the sooting dynamics of liquid fuels during droplet combustion processes. The analyses of a soot-attenuating image (ISS n-heptane, untethered droplet) at an instant during the burning show that the SVF distribution has a peak at the soot shell location. It then decreases due to soot oxidation when the location is further away from the burning droplet. Regarding temporal effects on the maximum SVF (SVF max ), results show that SVF max first increases after the burning is initiated until a peak value is reached, after which SVF max decreases. The SVF max values identified in this study for n-heptane are quantitatively consistent with previously reported values for fiber-supported droplets and are reached relatively early in the burning history. n-Heptane images are also analyzed to show the effects of initial droplet sizes on the maximum soot volume fraction. Results show that SVF max decreases with increasing initial droplet size, which is consistent with visual observations of less soot formed and dimmer flame brightness as Do increases.
Toward a high-fidelity tritium transport modeling for retention and permeation experiments
We report Tritium Migration Analysis Program version 8 (TMAP8), the latest version of TMAP, was developed within the framework of the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). Created at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), MOOSE is an open-source, dimension-agnostic, fully coupled, and fully implicit multiphysics platform featuring massively parallel computation capabilities. Using TMAP8, tritium transport in a divertor monoblock was analyzed to elucidate the effects of pulsed operation (up to fifty 1,600 s plasma discharge and cool-down cycles) on the tritium in-vessel inventory source term and ex-vessel release term (i.e., tritium retention and permeation) for safety analysis. With its built-in Message Passing Interface capability, TMAP8 can, in under 2 h, simulate tritium transport in three different layered materials (i.e., tungsten, copper, and copper-chromium-zirconium alloy) in 2D geometry, using a single device/computer with 10 cores. The MOOSE-based TMAP8 code can leverage other MOOSE tools developed under the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program to perform tritium and thermal transport in complex geometries and multiphysics environments. And via its massively parallel computation, MOOSE will enable the fusion pilot plant designers to conduct high-fidelity multiphysics modeling for the design of the divertor and blanket systems as well as for the safety analysis.
Moving small files in a networked environment
Globally distributed computing infrastructures, such as clouds and supercomputers, are currently used to manage data that is generated with an unprecedented speed from a variety of resources. Coping with this trend, the volume of data exchanged across distant sites increases substantially. To accelerate data transfer, high-speed networks are provided to connect remote sites. Most existing data movement solutions are optimized for moving large files. However, it is still challenging to transfer a large number of small files across networks. This disadvantage not only lowers data transfer performance, but also decreases overall system utilization. Here, we identify that moving small files is mainly constrained by degraded file system throughput, not just network performance as might be suspected. We have built a data transfer pipeline model to analyze the impact of small network I/O and storage I/O on data movement. Extending one of the widely used open source data movement solutions, GridFTP, we demonstrate several appropriate engineering approaches that mitigate the bottleneck and increase data transfer efficiency. We show optimizations that improve data transfer performance more than 5 times. In comparison to existing solutions, our approaches can save a significant amount of system resources for moving lots of small files.
Software stewardship and advancement of a high-performance computing scientific application: QMCPACK
Here, we provide an overview of the software engineering efforts and their impact in QMCPACK, a production-level ab-initio Quantum Monte Carlo open-source code targeting high-performance computing (HPC) systems. Aspects included are: (i) strategic expansion of continuous integration (CI) targeting CPUs, using GitHub Actions own runners, and NVIDIA and AMD GPUs used in pre-exascale systems, (ii) incremental reduction of memory leaks using sanitizers, (iii) incorporation of Docker containers for CI and reproducibility, and (iv) refactoring efforts to improve maintainability, testing coverage, and memory lifetime management. We quantify the value of these improvements by providing metrics to illustrate the shift towards a predictive, rather than reactive, maintenance approach. Our goal, in documenting the impact of these efforts on QMCPACK, is to contribute to the body of knowledge on the importance of research software engineering (RSE) for the stewardship and advancement of community HPC codes to enable scientific discovery at scale.
Roadmap and Benchmarking: Privacy in Federated Load Forecasting
Data-driven techniques for energy demand forecasting continue to emerge with promising impacts on distribution grid planning. However, the development of robust and generalizable machine learning models requires that representative high quality training data are available. Distributed energy resources have begun to embed intelligence, gathering large amounts of data on customer demand, behavior, and household devices that are connected to the grid. Though utilities aggregate meter-level demand data for load shaping, demand response, outage management, reliability planning, and billing applications, there lies an inherent privacy concern in sharing consumption data that may identify individual consumer behavioral patterns. Hence, while sharing the data is crucial, the private sensitive customer data must be safeguarded from being exposed or manipulated. In this study, we propose a roadmap for implementing a based privacy preserving framework to support the advancement of data-driven analytics in data-sensitive distributed energy resources environments. The roadmap incorporates federated learning–a distributed training framework, differential privacy–a statistical framework that provides guarantees to safeguard the leakage of sensitive data, secure multiparty computation and homomorphic encryption– techniques for encrypting model gradients and applying secure aggregation on the server. Moreover, we perform baseline experiments on the federated short-term load forecasting (STLF) task using open-source residential load profile datasets, offering insights into the challenges of integrating differential privacy into federated learning.
DTLMod: A simulation framework for in situ workflow optimization
In situ processing workflows have become essential for coping with the explosion in data volume and velocity in large-scale scientific computing, providing domain scientists with early insights at runtime. Multiple frameworks implement this paradigm through a data transport layer (DTL), offering different data access modes and deployment schemes, but researchers currently lack the appropriate tools to assess design and deployment options before committing to costly real experiments. We introduce DTLMod, an open-source simulated DTL that enables performance evaluation of in situ workflow configurations at scale. Built on SimGrid, it links into any SimGrid-based simulator and is available in C++ and Python. We evaluate DTLMod along four axes: scalability (tens of thousands of simulated processes across interconnected clusters in seconds, with linear memory scaling), versatility (three implementation variants trading fidelity for speed), accuracy (simulated times faithfully reflecting real behavior), and practical utility (two use cases demonstrating evidence-based workflow design decisions).
Comparison of automated chemical-guided segmentation and human annotation of soil organic matter in X-ray microcomputed tomography imaging in contrasted soil types
Soil organic matter (OM) formation and persistence is strongly influenced by the spatial distribution of organic substrates and microscale soil heterogeneity by dictating OM accessibility to microorganisms. However, traditional size and/or density fractionation techniques disrupt aggregate architecture, eliminating spatial information needed to fully understand intra-aggregate OM distribution. To quantify three-dimensional OM spatial distribution and automate segmentation in X-ray microcomputed tomography (µCT) imaging without human annotation bias, we developed an iodine gas vapor (I2) based staining workflow that eliminates labor-intensive manual annotation while maintaining segmentation accuracy, using aggregates from four taxonomically diverse soils (Xerofluvent, Haploxeroll Sphagnofibrist, Palehumult) with an 8-fold range of soil organic carbon. Human annotation of 10 µCT slices by the experienced and inexperienced annotators resulted in variations up to 3% in the Dice similarity coefficient (DSC), reflecting a degree of inherent subjectivity of manual labeling. Such inconsistencies are expected to compound as the number of manually annotated slices increases. Dual-energy µCT imaging at 33.1 keV (below the iodine (I) K-edge) and 33.2 keV (above the I K-edge) was used to resolve aggregate microstructure following I2 staining. The automated image subtraction pipeline identified OM regions by the I Kedge induced brightness increases, achieving DSC values of 0.58–0.83 relative to an experienced annotator. Sensitivity analyses revealed that the reconstruction alpha value—optimized via the open-source tool TomocuPy—and the 3D registration slice count were the primary determinants of accuracy, providing a novel benchmark for dual-energy soil imaging. The pipeline without GPU acceleration achieved 9.6 to 43.2 times faster than manual annotation. Using GPU-accelerated image post-processing and affine transformation matrices, the pipeline successfully segmented OM elements for large-scale datasets (3232×3232 pixel, 2048 slices) within ~5200 s from raw file acquisition to segmented output. The high-throughput approach enables the quantification of OM spatial distribution across diverse and heterogeneous soil.
Validation of Phasor-Domain Transmission and Distribution Co-simulation Against Electromagnetic Transient Simulation
The rapid deployment of renewable energy resources has led to the widespread use of power electronics in modern power systems. As these systems transition from being dominated by large synchronous machines to increasingly incorporating inverter-based resources (IBRs), traditional methods are becoming inadequate. Addressing this challenge, this paper introduces a scalable phasor-domain T\&D co-simulation framework based on open-source software. It focuses on the framework's validation against the PSCAD Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) analysis tool. The validation results demonstrate the framework's high-fidelity and a computational time speed-up of 60 to 100 times, marking a pioneering validation effort in T\&D co-simulation research.
Basin-scale analysis of Mokelumne River Formation for multi-well CO 2 injection
Large-scale carbon sequestration will likely require multiple projects injecting CO 2 into the same subsurface formation, raising concerns about safe operation and efficient use of storage capacity. This study evaluates the long-term response of the Mokelumne River Formation in California’s Sacramento Basin to multi-megaton CO 2 injection using three geologic models of the formation and the open-source simulator GEOS. The analysis focuses on three aspects of reservoir performance: (1) average pressure increase and dissolved CO 2 mass after 30 years for varying well counts and injection rates, (2) pressure interference in a multi-well configuration, and (3) dynamic storage capacity with identification of overpressure-prone regions. The results show that average formation pressure increases linearly with injected mass, while CO 2 dissolution exhibits mixed scaling: approximately linear with the number of wells but sublinear with injection rate, indicating that distributing injection across more wells enhances dissolution more effectively than increasing per-well rates. Pressure-interference effects are significant, with lower-permeability conditions delaying their onset but amplifying their magnitude at later times. Dynamic capacity, defined by the first occurrence of pressure exceeding the local overburden-based limit anywhere in the formation, varies across geologic models and assumed overburden pressure gradients. A lower fidelity geologic model predicts nearly twice the storage capacity of the two higher fidelity models, which consistently estimate approximately 1 Gt under the upper-bound overburden pressure gradient considered for the Sacramento Basin. In all model scenarios, overpressure develops away from injection wells, particularly in higher-elevation regions, highlighting the importance of basin-scale modelling for identifying risks beyond the immediate well vicinity.
CFD-DEM and PR-DNS studies of low-temperature densely packed beds
Over the past few decades, granular media is gaining attention as a viable option for heat transfer fluids (HTFs). Several research efforts are studying the use of particle-based heat transfer fluids in a wide variety of applications. With this motivation, the current work focusses on analyzing the different heat transfer mechanisms in low-temperature mono-sized densely packed granular media. To study the heat transfer behavior of granular media at different scales, the current work employs a two-way coupled computational strategy. The motion of particles is solved using the Discrete Element Method (DEM) and the interstitial air is solved using a Finite-Volume (CFD) approach. The Open-Source library CFDEM Coupling® is used in the current study to join the Finite Volume PISO solver of OpenFOAM® and the DEM solver of LIGGGHTS®. Typically, particle-particle contact conduction and particle-air convection are the most popular closure models. But recent research identified a different heat transfer phenomenon in packed beds that cannot be identified by conduction or convection models. While closure models were developed to implement this on a CFD-DEM framework, they did not capture the effect of intra-particulate thermal gradients on this phenomenon. Hence the current work also employs Particle-Resolved Direct Numerical Simulations (PR-DNS) to gain valuable insights allowing for the modification of existing models. A new closure model is then proposed here and is implemented in the CFD-DEM framework. This model provides key insights into the different heat transfer mechanism of packed beds.