Results for “Model prediction” — Page 79

NASA NTRS2005

A Study of Cavitation-Ignition Bubble Combustion

We present the results of an experimental and computational study of the physics and chemistry of cavitation-ignition bubble combustion (CIBC), a process that occurs when combustible gaseous mixtures are ignited by the high temperatures found inside a rapidly collapsing bubble. The CIBC process was modeled using a time-dependent compressible fluid-dynamics code that includes finite-rate chemistry. The model predicts that gas-phase reactions within the bubble produce CO and other gaseous by-products of combustion. In addition, heat and mechanical energy release through a bubble volume-expansion phase are also predicted by the model. We experimentally demonstrate the CIBC process using an ultrasonically excited cavitation flow reactor with various hydrocarbon-air mixtures in liquid water. Low concentrations (< 160 ppm) of carbon monoxide (CO) emissions from the ultrasonic reactor were measured, and found to be proportional to the acoustic excitation power. The results of the model were consistent with the measured experimental results. Based on the experimental findings, the computational model, and previous reports of the "micro-diesel effect" in industrial hydraulic systems, we conclude that CIBC is indeed possible and exists in ultrasonically- and hydrodynamically-induced cavitation. Finally, estimates of the utility of CIBC process as a means of powering an idealized heat engine are also presented.

Nguyen, Quang-Viet↗

NASA NTRS2007

NASA Tech Briefs, May 2007

Topics include: Noise-Canceling Helmet Audio System; Program Analyzes Spacecraft/Ground Radio Links; Two-Way Communication Using RFID Equipment and Techniques; Six-Message Electromechanical Display System; Scanning Terahertz Heterodyne Imaging Systems; Master Clock and Time-Signal-Distribution System; Synchronous Phase-Resolving Flash Range Imaging; Integrated Radial Probe Transition From MMIC to Waveguide; Bar-Code System for a Microbiological Laboratory; MMIC Amplifier Produces Gain of 10 dB at 235 GHz; Mapping Nearby Terrain in 3D by Use of a Grid of Laser Spots; Digital Beam Deflectors Based Partly on Liquid Crystals; Narrow-Band WGM Optical Filters With Tunable FSRs; Better Finite-Element Analysis of Composite Shell Structures; Computing Spacecraft-Pointing Vectors for Limb Tracking; Enhanced Master Controller Unit Tester; Rover Graphical Simulator; Increasing Durability of Flame-Sprayed Strain Gauges; Multifunctional, High-Temperature Nanocomposites; Multilayer Impregnated Fibrous Thermal Insulation Tiles; Radiation-Shielding Polymer/Soil Composites; Film/Adhesive Processing Module for Fiber-Placement Processing of Composites; Fabrication of Submillimeter Axisymmetric Optical Components; Electrochemical Disposal of Hydrazines in Water; Statistical Model of Evaporating Multicomponent Fuel Drops; Resistively Heated SiC Nozzle for Generating Molecular Beams; Compact Packaging of Photonic Millimeter-Wave Receiver; Diffractive Combiner of Single-Mode Pump Laser-Diode Beams; Wide-Band, High-Quantum-Efficiency Photodetector; A Robustly Stabilizing Model Predictive Control Algorithm; Modeling Evaporation of Drops of Different Kerosenes; Development of Vapor-Phase Catalytic Ammonia Removal System; Several Developments in Space Tethers; Design Concept for a Nuclear Reactor-Powered Mars Rover; Formation-Initialization Algorithm for N Spacecraft; and DNSs of Multicomponent Gaseous and Drop-Laden Mixing Layers Achieving Transition to Turbulence.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2010

Qualitative Event-Based Diagnosis: Case Study on the Second International Diagnostic Competition

We describe a diagnosis algorithm entered into the Second International Diagnostic Competition. We focus on the first diagnostic problem of the industrial track of the competition in which a diagnosis algorithm must detect, isolate, and identify faults in an electrical power distribution testbed and provide corresponding recovery recommendations. The diagnosis algorithm embodies a model-based approach, centered around qualitative event-based fault isolation. Faults produce deviations in measured values from model-predicted values. The sequence of these deviations is matched to those predicted by the model in order to isolate faults. We augment this approach with model-based fault identification, which determines fault parameters and helps to further isolate faults. We describe the diagnosis approach, provide diagnosis results from running the algorithm on provided example scenarios, and discuss the issues faced, and lessons learned, from implementing the approach

Daigle, Matthew↗

NASA NTRS2011

Modeling the Height of Young Forests Regenerating from Recent Disturbances in Mississippi using Landsat and ICESat data

Many forestry and earth science applications require spatially detailed forest height data sets. Among the various remote sensing technologies, lidar offers the most potential for obtaining reliable height measurement. However, existing and planned spaceborne lidar systems do not have the capability to produce spatially contiguous, fine resolution forest height maps over large areas. This paper describes a Landsat-lidar fusion approach for modeling the height of young forests by integrating historical Landsat observations with lidar data acquired by the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) instrument onboard the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation (ICESat) satellite. In this approach, "young" forests refer to forests reestablished following recent disturbances mapped using Landsat time-series stacks (LTSS) and a vegetation change tracker (VCT) algorithm. The GLAS lidar data is used to retrieve forest height at sample locations represented by the footprints of the lidar data. These samples are used to establish relationships between lidar-based forest height measurements and LTSS-VCT disturbance products. The height of "young" forest is then mapped based on the derived relationships and the LTSS-VCT disturbance products. This approach was developed and tested over the state of Mississippi. Of the various models evaluated, a regression tree model predicting forest height from age since disturbance and three cumulative indices produced by the LTSS-VCT method yielded the lowest cross validation error. The R(exp 2) and root mean square difference (RMSD) between predicted and GLAS-based height measurements were 0.91 and 1.97 m, respectively. Predictions of this model had much higher errors than indicated by cross validation analysis when evaluated using field plot data collected through the Forest Inventory and Analysis Program of USDA Forest Service. Much of these errors were due to a lack of separation between stand clearing and non-stand clearing disturbances in current LTSS-VCT products and difficulty in deriving reliable forest height measurements using GLAS samples when terrain relief was present within their footprints. In addition, a systematic underestimation of about 5 m by the developed model was also observed, half of which could be explained by forest growth that occurred between field measurement year and model target year. The remaining difference suggests that tree height measurements derived using waveform lidar data could be significantly underestimated, especially for young pine forests. Options for improving the height modeling approach developed in this study were discussed.

Li, Ainong↗

DOE OSTI2025

Interesting Graphite Facts

Interesting facts about graphite. Graphite within HTRs and how long they will last, potential issues prediction, model building to predict expected behavior, and frequent and thorough inspection and monitoring strategy.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Geothermal Heat Pump System Showcase: Short-Term Validation of Borehole Heat Exchanger Performance from Field Data to Numerical Modeling: Preprint

Since 2011, a geothermal heat pump (GHP) system has been operating to provide space heating and cooling for the Solar Radiation and Research Laboratory building at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) in Golden, Colorado. The system consists of 23 vertical boreholes, each extending to a depth of 300 ft (91 m), connected to 11 water-to-air heat pump units and four circulation pumps. Between fiscal years 2023 and 2025, additional power meters and temperature sensors were retrofitted to support detailed system performance assessment and model development. This study presents preliminary monitoring results and the development of an initial numerical model of the borehole heat exchanger field. The model incorporated site-specific geometry, ground thermal properties derived from thermal response tests, and ambient temperatures, and simulated system behavior over a representative operating day in September. Model predictions of outlet temperatures were compared against corresponding field measurements. Results showed that modeling initialized with a simplified linear subsurface temperature gradient presents systematic discrepancies in outlet temperature, whereas incorporating depth-resolved borehole temperature measurements for initialization yields substantially improved agreement with observations. The findings highlight the sensitivity of short-term predictive modeling to the representation of initial subsurface thermal conditions and underscore the value of high-resolution field measurements for model calibration and validation. These preliminary results inform ongoing efforts to extend the modeling framework to longer time horizons and to refine monitoring and modeling strategies that support the design guidance and operational optimization of GHP systems in research and commercial buildings.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic modeling and prediction of out-of-plane unidirectional composite lamina properties

Computational simulation provides an efficient means to predict the behavior of customized hybrid material configurations using validated, physics-based models. One limitation to this approach is the quality and quantity of available data to characterize the many constituent input properties. Therefore, a systematic approach to identify the most influential parameters on the hybrid behavior and quantify the corresponding uncertainty in predictive capabilities is required. Here, an approach using Bayesian multimodel inference and imprecise global sensitivity analysis is presented to investigate the effects of sparse constituent data on the prediction of composite material properties. The methodology allows the identification, using quantified uncertainties, of the most influential constituent material parameters for specified homogenized properties. This sensitivity analysis further enables a dimension reduction when assessing the influence of uncertainties on material properties and can be used to inform testing programs of the constituent properties that require additional testing/data collection in order to minimize uncertainty in macro-scale composite properties. The methodology is specifically demonstrated on the prediction and sensitivity analysis of out-of-plane mechanical properties of a unidirectional lamina.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of the Effect of Injected CO 2 on the Morrow B Sandstone through Laboratory Batch Reaction Experiments: Implications for CO 2 Sequestration in the Farnsworth Unit, Northern Texas, USA

About one million tons of CO 2 have been injected into the Farnsworth unit to date. The target reservoir for CO 2 injection is the Morrow B Sandstone, which is primarily made of quartz with lesser amounts of albite, calcite, chlorite, and clay minerals. The impact of CO 2 injection on the mineralogy, porosity, and pore water composition of the Morrow B Sandstone is a major concern. Although numerical modeling studies suggest that porosity changes will be minimal, significant alterations to mineralogy and pore water composition are expected. Given the implications for CO 2 storage effectiveness and risk assessment, it is crucial to verify the accuracy of theoretical model predictions through laboratory experiments. To this end, batch reaction experiments were conducted to model conditions near an injection well in the Morrow B Sandstone and at locations further away, where the CO 2 has been diluted by formation water. The laboratory experiments involved submerging thin sections of both coarse- and fine-grained facies of the Morrow B Sandstone in formation water samples with varying levels of CO 2 . The experiments were conducted at the reservoir temperature of 75 °C. Two experimental runs were conducted, one lasting for 61 days and the other for 72 days. The initial fluid composition used in the second run was the same as in the first. The mineralogy changes in the thin sections were analyzed using SEM and the Tescan Integrated Mineral Analyzer (TIMA), while changes in the composition of the formation water were determined using ICP-AES. During each experiment, a thin layer of white fine-grained particles consisting mainly of dolomite and silica formed on the surface of the thin sections, leading to significant reductions in Ca, Mg, and Sr in the formation water. This outcome is consistent with numerical model predictions that dolomite would be the primary mineral that would react with injected CO 2 and that silica would be oversaturated in the formation water. Changes in mineral abundance in the thin sections themselves were much less systematic than in the theoretical modeling experiments, perhaps reflecting heterogeneities in the mineral grain size surface area to volume ratios and mineral distributions in the thin sections not considered in the numerical models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transient Efficiency, Flexibility, and Reliability Optimization of Coal-Fired Power Plants - Final Report

This program developed an advanced model-based monitoring and model-predictive control algorithms for a coal fired power plant (CFPP), and deployed these algorithms in a real-time platform to demonstrate performance benefits for transient flexibility and plant operation efficiency. More specifically, the objectives were successfully achieved through a combination of (i) developing a high-fidelity transient plant model in Apros, which was used as a high-fidelity plant simulation between $100-50\% TMCR$ where TMCR denotes the turbine maximum continuous rating, i.e., baseload, (ii) developing a very fast physics-based reduced-order model (ROM) of the plant, which ran more than $100\times$ faster than real-time, enabling its use as real-time embedded model for model-based estimation (MBE) and model predictive control (MPC) (iii) implementing a real-time MBE based on ROM using a robust unscented Kalman filter (UKF) to continuously tune the ROM to match the measurements from high-fidelity Apros plant model despite significant plant-model mismatch, and thus, obtain a Digital Twin of the plant (iv) designing and implementing a real-time MPC with dual objectives of transient plant load tracking with high ramp rates and minimizing coal consumption, i.e., improving plant efficiency in the baseload-partload operation range of $100-50\% TMCR$. Each key element above was developed and tested individually, and has been reported in corresponding Topical Reports. Finally, all the individual elements were integrated in an overall closed-loop system, that was successfully tested in desktop Simulink test harness simulations with ROM or high-fidelity model as the plant. Thereafter, the Simulink implementation was used to auto-generate C-code and deploy as real-time Docker microservice containers in Linux, and validate that they can run in real-time in the hardware-in-the loop (HIL) setup and produce the same results as in Simulink. The results of the integrated simulation tests in Simulink as well as the real-time HIL deployment are documented in this final report, showing good load tracking for load ramps at $3-4\%/min$ ramp rates, and achieving up to $5.5\%$ reduction in coal relative to baseline operation at $50\% TMCR$ load. The desktop and HIL simulations show successful performance of the overall model based estimation and control solution and achieve the key objectives of the program for flexible, efficient and reliable operation of subcritical coal fired power plants.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Transient Efficiency, Flexibility, and Reliability Optimization of Coal-Fired Power Plants - Final Program Review

This program developed an advanced model-based monitoring and model-predictive control algorithms for a coal fired power plant (CFPP), and deployed these algorithms in a real-time platform to demonstrate performance benefits for transient flexibility and plant operation efficiency. More specifically, the objectives were successfully achieved through a combination of (i) developing a high-fidelity transient plant model in Apros, which was used as a high-fidelity plant simulation between $100-50\% TMCR$ where TMCR denotes the turbine maximum continuous rating, i.e., baseload, (ii) developing a very fast physics-based reduced-order model (ROM) of the plant, which ran more than $100\times$ faster than real-time, enabling its use as real-time embedded model for model-based estimation (MBE) and model predictive control (MPC) (iii) implementing a real-time MBE based on ROM using a robust unscented Kalman filter (UKF) to continuously tune the ROM to match the measurements from high-fidelity Apros plant model despite significant plant-model mismatch, and thus, obtain a Digital Twin of the plant (iv) designing and implementing a real-time MPC with dual objectives of transient plant load tracking with high ramp rates and minimizing coal consumption, i.e., improving plant efficiency in the baseload-partload operation range of $100-50\% TMCR$. Each key element above was developed and tested individually, and has been reported in corresponding Topical Reports. Finally, all the individual elements were integrated in an overall closed-loop system, that was successfully tested in desktop Simulink test harness simulations with ROM or high-fidelity model as the plant. Thereafter, the Simulink implementation was used to auto-generate C-code and deploy as real-time Docker microservice containers in Linux, and validate that they can run in real-time in the hardware-in-the loop (HIL) setup and produce the same results as in Simulink. The results of the integrated simulation tests in Simulink as well as the real-time HIL deployment are documented in this final report, showing good load tracking for load ramps at $3-4\%/min$ ramp rates, and achieving up to $5.5\%$ reduction in coal relative to baseline operation at $50\% TMCR$ load. The desktop and HIL simulations show successful performance of the overall model based estimation and control solution and achieve the key objectives of the program for flexible, efficient and reliable operation of sub-critical coal fired power plants.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1979

The terrestrial radiation environment and EVA's: Prediction requirements, model improvements, and warning systems

The total medical-biological impact of the Earth's space radiation environment on humans is a function of combined EVA and non-EVA exposure. In either case, the correct assessment of the eventual health risk to crew members is crucial to the success and viability of a project or mission. Aside from the medical-biological aspect itself, the validity of any assessment depends entirely on the existence of good and reliable models providing the high quality data that is needed for such evaluations, which should contain time histories of storm and substorm events, their intensities, their frequency of occurence, and their duration. Prediction requirements, advantageous and desirable model developments and improvements, and systems that need to be designed and tested, which would alert space crews and maintenance personnel about impending radiation danger are outlined.

Stassinopoulos, E. G.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Boundary-layer computational model for predicting the flow and heat transfer in sudden expansions

Fully developed turbulent and laminar flows through symmetric planar and axisymmetric expansions with heat transfer were modeled using a finite-difference discretization of the boundary-layer equations. By using the boundary-layer equations to model separated flow in place of the Navier-Stokes equations, computational effort was reduced permitting turbulence modelling studies to be economically carried out. For laminar flow, the reattachment length was well predicted for Reynolds numbers as low as 20 and the details of the trapped eddy were well predicted for Reynolds numbers above 200. For turbulent flows, the Boussinesq assumption was used to express the Reynolds stresses in terms of a turbulent viscosity. Near-wall algebraic turbulence models based on Prandtl's-mixing-length model and the maximum Reynolds shear stress were compared.

Lewis, J. P.↗

NASA NTRS2000

An Evaluation Technique for an F/A-18 Aircraft Loads Model Using F/A-18 Systems Research Aircraft Flight Data

A limited evaluation of the F/A-18 baseline loads model was performed on the Systems Research Aircraft at NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (Edwards, California). Boeing developed the F/A-18 loads model using a linear aeroelastic analysis in conjunction with a flight simulator to determine loads at discrete locations on the aircraft. This experiment was designed so that analysis of doublets could be used to establish aircraft aerodynamic and loads response at 20 flight conditions. Instrumentation on the right outboard leading edge flap, left aileron, and left stabilator measured the hinge moment so that comparisons could be made between in-flight-measured hinge moments and loads model-predicted values at these locations. Comparisons showed that the difference between the loads model-predicted and in-flight-measured hinge moments was up to 130 percent of the flight limit load. A stepwise regression technique was used to determine new loads derivatives. These derivatives were placed in the loads model, which reduced the error to within 10 percent of the flight limit load. This paper discusses the flight test methodology, a process for determining loads coefficients, and the direct comparisons of predicted and measured hinge moments and loads coefficients.

Olney, Candida D.↗

NASA NTRS2013

A Unified Model for Predicting the Open Hole Tensile and Compressive Strengths of Composite Laminates for Aerospace Applications

The open hole tensile and compressive strengths are important design parameters in qualifying fiber reinforced laminates for a wide variety of structural applications in the aerospace industry. In this paper, we present a unified model that can be used for predicting both these strengths (tensile and compressive) using the same set of coupon level, material property data. As a prelude to the unified computational model that follows, simplified approaches, referred to as "zeroth order", "first order", etc. with increasing levels of fidelity are first presented. The results and methods presented are practical and validated against experimental data. They serve as an introductory step in establishing a virtual building block, bottom-up approach to designing future airframe structures with composite materials. The results are useful for aerospace design engineers, particularly those that deal with airframe design.

Davidson, Paul↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Multiscale Simulation of Plasma-Surface Interfaces

We report the development of an atomistic-informed, surface-state-dependent predictive model for particle exchange in a carbon-tungsten plasma-surface interface. The predictive model uses machine learning (ML) techniques to learn the energy and angular distributions for particle exchange and rate functions for surface state evolution from molecular dynamics simulations of cumulative bombardment of tungsten by energetic carbon ions. Each predictive component is sensitive to the energy and trajectory of incident plasma species and the surface state. The surface state is represented by a set of surface state descriptors, which were derived from the atomistic surface state for each independent carbon bombardment event. These descriptors are representative of the composition and degree of amorphization of the outermost angstrom of surface material and were chosen to optimize predictive performance for particle exchange at the interface. The distributions for particle exchange (reflection/sputtering) are demonstrated to vary with each surface state descriptor, motivating the development of surface-state-dependent particle exchange models for plasma simulations. The performance of various ML methods was compared, including polynomial quantile regression, artificial neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, and random forest algorithms, with polynomial regression performing the best for interpolation and extrapolation of learned relationships. In addition to the particle exchange model, a neutral network was developed and used to identify data sufficiency throughout surface descriptor space, which will enable real-time feedback during future data production to ensure data is produced where it is most needed, and we provide commentary on improvements to the data production workflow for future endeavors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

When physics-informed data analytics outperforms black-box machine learning: A case study in thickness control for additive manufacturing

Aerosol jet printing (AJP) has emerged as a promising noncontact additive manufacturing method for high-resolution printing for a wide range of material systems. A key challenge limiting the broader adoption of AJP in the material science community is the lack of methods to precisely control thickness. Herein, we develop a model-based design of experiment (MBDoE) framework that integrates physics-informed models, nonlinear regression, and information criteria to postulate, select and calibrate the best model to describe and optimize the AJP manufacturing process. Starting with already available data from system commissioning (e.g., prior single variable sensitivity analysis), four candidate physics-informed models are postulated and trained. MBDoE identifies a single additional optimal experiment to validate these predictive models with quantified uncertainties, which are then used to determine the best experimental conditions to control printed film thickness. As a comparative benchmark, the analysis is repeated using the same dataset with nonparametric Gaussian process regression (GPR) model that does not incorporate physical information. Using MBDoE principles, we find that only five experiments are necessary to calibrate the nonlinear physics-informed parametric model, and with said limited data, this model outperforms the black-box machine learning GPR model. This key result underscores an emerging trend in the data science community: incorporating physical information into predictive models often drastically reduces the data requirements. Leveraging MBDoE further increased the data efficiency. By design, the proposed data science framework is general in nature and can be easily extended to other experimental and additive manufacturing systems beyond AJP.

Aerosol jet printing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of a Two-Phase CFD Model for Predicting Propellant Tank Pressurization and Pressure Collapse in The Ground-Based K-Site Hydrogen Slosh Experiment

A two-phase CFD model for tank pressurization and following sloshing in a cryogenic storage tank partially filled with liquid hydrogen is presented using the Volume-Of-Fluid approach for representing the phase boundary and the associated interfacial heat, mass and momentum transfer between the liquid and the vapor regions. The CFD model was validated against pressurization and sloshing data for a 62 cubic foot tank provided by Moran et al. Cases with different sloshing amplitudes and frequencies are studied. The results of modeling tank pressurization are presented first followed by the results of sloshing cases. Predicted tank pressures are compared with the experimental data.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of a Two-Phase CFD Model for Predicting Propellant Tank Pressurization and Pressure Collapse in the Ground-Based K-Site Hydrogen Slosh Experiment

A two-phase CFD model for tank pressurization and following sloshing in a cryogenic storage tank partially filled with liquid hydrogen is presented using the Volume-Of-Fluid approach for representing the phase boundary and the associated interfacial heat, mass and momentum transfer between the liquid and the vapor regions. The CFD model was validated against pressurization and sloshing data for a 62 cubic foot tank provided by Moran et al. Cases with different sloshing amplitudes and frequencies are studied. The results of modeling tank pressurization are presented first followed by the results of sloshing cases. Predicted tank pressures are compared with the experimental data.

Computational Fluid Dynamics↗