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DOE OSTI2025

Coupled Induction Machine and HVAC Models for Simulating HVAC Performance Considering Grid Dynamics in Buildings

This paper presents the development of novel models that integrate induction machines with HVAC equipment, such as pumps, heat pumps, and chillers, to analyze the impact of electrical parameters on the operational performance of thermo-fluid systems. The proposed model employs a coupling technique that captures the dynamic interactions between induction machines and HVAC systems. By integrating electrical, thermal, and mechanical dynamics, the models provide a comprehensive framework for simulating real-world scenarios, including interactions with the electrical grid. This achievement was made possible through the development of a Computationally Efficient and Accurate Induction Machine (CEAIM) model. Implemented using the equation-based Modelica language, the CEAIM model has been validated against experimental results, manufacturer data sheets, and various operating conditions. Its performance has been compared with existing induction machine models in the Modelica Standard Library (MSL), demonstrating superior accuracy and computational efficiency. The CEAIM model predicts torque, speed, and power consumption with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) ranging from 0.98 to 1 and a coefficient of variation of root mean square error (CVRMSE) between 0.27% and 6.67%. Additionally, CEAIM scales more efficiently than conventional MSL models, with a slower computational growth rate in large-scale simulations. After thorough validation of the CEAIM model, it was coupled with HVAC equipment as this approach provides a detailed multi-dimensional view of capturing electrical transients and mechanical performance. To support this, a case study was conducted to showcase its capabilities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Transformation rate maps of dissolved organic carbon in the contiguous US

Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) plays a vital role in regional and global carbon cycles. However, the processes of DOC conversion from soil organic carbon (SOC) and leaching into rivers are insufficiently understood, inconsistently represented, and poorly parameterized, particularly in land surface and Earth system models. As a first attempt to fill this gap, we propose a generic formula that directly connects SOC concentration with DOC concentration in headwater streams, where a single parameter, the transformation rate from SOC in the soil to DOC leaching flux (P r ), accounts for the overall processes governing SOC conversion to DOC and leaching from soils (along with runoff) into headwater streams. We then derive high-resolution P r maps over the contiguous US (CONUS) using SOC data from two different sources: the Harmonized World Soil Database v1.2 (HWSD) and SoilGrids 2.0. Both maps are developed following the same five major steps: (1) selecting independent catchments where observed riverine DOC data are available with reasonable quality; (2) estimating catchment-average SOC for the independent catchments; (3) estimating the P r values for these catchments based on the generic formula and catchment-average SOC; (4) developing a predictive model of P r with machine learning (ML) techniques and catchment-scale climate, hydrology, geology, and other attributes; and (5) deriving a national map of P r based on the ML model. For evaluation, we compare the DOC concentration derived using the P r map and the observed DOC concentration values at evaluation catchments. The resulting mean absolute scaled error and coefficient of determination are 0.73 and 0.47 for the HWSD-based model and 0.58 and 0.72 for the SoilGrids-based model, respectively, suggesting the effectiveness of the overall methodology. Efforts to constrain uncertainty and evaluate sensitivity of P r to different factors are discussed. To illustrate the use of such maps, we derive a riverine DOC concentration reanalysis dataset over CONUS. The two P r maps, robustly derived and empirically validated, lay a critical cornerstone for better simulating the terrestrial carbon cycle in land surface and Earth system models. Our findings not only set a foundation for improving our predictive understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle at the regional and global scales, but also hold promises for informing policy decisions related to decarbonization and climate change mitigation. The data presented in this study are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.14563816 (Li et al., 2024).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermally anisotropic building envelope for thermal management: finite element model calibration using field evaluation data

The thermally anisotropic building envelope (TABE) is an active building envelope that redistributes thermal loads in response to weather conditions and building energy demand. Conductive layers throughout the TABE distribute low-grade heat among hydronic loops, altering heat flow direction and intensity. Finite element models of TABE roof and wall panels were developed and calibrated using field evaluation data. The calibration results showed that heat flux differences between the experimental data and finite element models averaged –0.42% and 3.57%, with a maximum mean square error of 1.78 and 3.96 for roof and wall panels, respectively. A reduction in heat flux from the environment to the building living space over the entire testing period (weeks in July/August) was found to be 85% for roof panels and 335% (load reversed) for wall panels. Finally, these results indicate TABE can effectively harness low-grade thermal energy sources to achieve high energy efficiency and promote demand-side management.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

What do physics-informed DeepONets learn? Understanding and improving training for scientific computing applications

Physics-informed deep operator networks (DeepONets) have emerged as a promising approach toward numerically approximating the solution of partial differential equations (PDEs). In this work, we aim to develop further understanding of what is being learned by physics-informed DeepONets by assessing the universality of the extracted basis functions and demonstrating their potential toward model reduction with spectral methods. Results provide clarity about measuring the performance of a physics-informed DeepONet through the decays of singular values and expansion coefficients. In addition, we propose a transfer learning approach for improving training for physics-informed DeepONets between parameters of the same PDE as well as across different, but related, PDEs where these models struggle to train well. This approach results in significant error reduction and learned basis functions that are more effective in representing the solution of a PDE.

Deep operator networks↗

DOE OSTI2021

Early season prediction of within-field crop yield variability by assimilating CubeSat data into a crop model

Accurate early season predictions of crop yield at the within-field scale can be used to address a range of crop production, management, and precision agricultural challenges. While the remote sensing of within-field insights has been a research goal for many years, it is only recently that observations with the required spatio-temporal resolutions, together with efficient assimilation methods to integrate these into modeling frameworks, have become available to advance yield prediction efforts. Here we explore a yield prediction approach that combines daily high-resolution CubeSat imagery with the APSIM crop model. The approach employs APSIM to train a linear regression that relates simulated yield to simulated leaf area index (LAI). That relationship is then used to identify the optimal regression date at which the LAI provides the best prediction of yield: in this case, approximately 14 weeks prior to harvest. Instead of applying the regression on satellite imagery that is coincident, or closest to, the regression date, our method implements a particle filter that integrates CubeSat-based LAI into APSIM to provide end-of-season high-resolution (3 m) yield maps weeks before the optimal regression date. The approach is demonstrated on a rainfed maize field located in Nebraska, USA, where suitable collections of both imagery and in-situ data were available for assessment. The procedure does not require in-field data to calibrate the regression model, with results showing that even with a single assimilation step, it is possible to provide yield estimates with good accuracy up to 21 days before the optimal regression date. Yield spatial variability was reproduced reasonably well, with a strong correlation to independently collected measurements (R 2 = 0.73 and rRMSE = 12%). When the field averaged yield was compared, our approach reduced yield prediction error from 1 Mg/ha (control case based on a calibrated APSIM model), to 0.5 Mg/ha (using satellite imagery alone), and then to 0.2 Mg/ha (results with assimilation up to three weeks prior to the optimal regression date). Such a capacity to provide spatially explicit yield predictions early in the season has considerable potential to enhance digital agricultural goals and improve end-of-season yield predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Look Inside the Black Box: Using graph-theoretical descriptors to interpret a Continuous-Filter Convolutional Neural Network (CF-CNN) trained on the global and local minimum energy structures of neutral water clusters

A Continuous Filter Convolutional Neural Network (CF-CNN) was trained to predict the potential energy of water cluster networks \ce{(H2O)_{\textit{N}}}, \textit{N}=10--30, corresponding to local minima lying within 5 kcal/mol from the putative minima taken from a newly published database containing over 5 million unique networks. The chemical sampling space of the database was characterized using chemical descriptors derived from graph theory, which led to the identification of important trends in the topology, connectivity, polygon structures associated with the various networks as a function of cluster size. The resulting graphs are available alongside the original database at \url{https://sites.uw.edu/wdbase/}. The CF-CNN trained on a subset of 500,000 networks for (\textit{N}=10, 30) yielded a mean absolute error of 0.002$\pm$0.002 kcal/mol per water molecule, giving the trained CF-CNN the highest accuracy of any neural network-based surrogate model to date. In addition, clusters of sizes not included in the training set exhibited errors of the same magnitude, indicating that the CF-CNN ptotocol is general enough to accurately predict energies of networks for both smaller and larger sizes than those used during training. The graph-theoretical descriptors were developed in order to analyze the properties of the full database and interpret the predictive power of the CF-CNN. Using topology measures, such as the Wiener index and the average shortest path length along with two similarity measures, we showed that all networks from the test set were within the range of the ones from the training set, suggesting that the training set covered the chemical space of interest quite well. Our graph analysis suggests that the mean degree and number of polygons for networks with larger errors tend to lie further from the mean than those with lower errors. The generality of the used CF-CNN was thus demonstrated, while the use of the graph-theoretical descriptors assisted in interpreting the predicted results.

Bilbrey, Jenna A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A segmented approach to modeling building height: Delineating high-rise and low-rise buildings for enhanced height estimation

Understanding building height is imperative to the overall study of energy efficiency, population distribution, urban morphologies, emergency response, among others. Currently, existing approaches for modeling building height at scale are hindered by two pervasive issues. First, there is no consistent approach to quantify what a high-rise building is at a macro scale, leaving researchers unable to accurately compare results across geographies and domains. Second, high-rise buildings represent a small fraction of the built environment, implying data imbalance challenges that negatively affect current approaches. This is a problem of practical relevance since information on high-rise buildings is important for studies on urban heat islands, population dynamics, and pollution dispersion. Here, we introduce a novel approach to map building height which first identifies two distinct distributions within the built environment, with one being composed of low-rise buildings and one composed of high-rise buildings. We then develop an ensemble scheme where discrete specialist models are trained for each subset of low-rise buildings and high-rise buildings to infer building height from morphology features. For experiments mapping heights of 4.85 million buildings in Japan, we show an increase of 34 % in accuracy within 3m error when compared to the current state-of-the-art when modeling high-rise buildings, which based on KNN experimentation we define as any building > 12m . Our findings show that such an ensemble framework outperforms the current state-of-the-art approaches, which is especially relevant in relation to inferring height for high-rise buildings, a prominent issue of existing approaches for mapping the built environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Superselection rules, quantum error correction, and quantum chromodynamics

We investigate the relationship between superselection rules and quantum error correcting codes. We demonstrate that the existence of a superselection rule implies the Knill-Laflamme condition in quantum error correction. As an example, we examine the code built from quantum chromodynamics, where the proton and neutron states in the model are explored as different superselection sectors that protect logical information. Finally we comment on topological quantum error correcting codes and supersymmetric quantum field theory within this framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adsorption Thermodynamics for Process Simulation

Adsorption has rapidly evolved in recent decades and is an established separation technology extensively practiced in gas separation industries and others. However, rigorous thermodynamic modeling of multicomponent adsorption equilibrium remains elusive, and industrial practitioners rely heavily on expensive and time-consuming trial-and-error pilot studies to develop adsorption units. Here, this article highlights the need for rigorous adsorption thermodynamic models and the limitations and deficiencies of existing models such as the extended Langmuir isotherm, dual-process Langmuir isotherm, and adsorbed solution theory. It further presents a series of recent advances in the generalization of the classical Langmuir isotherm of single-component adsorption by deriving an activity coefficient model to account for the adsorbed phase adsorbate–adsorbent interactions, substituting adsorbed phase adsorbate and vacant site concentrations with activities, and extending to multicomponent competitive adsorption equilibrium, both monolayer and multilayer. Requiring a minimum set of physically meaningful model parameters, the generalized Langmuir isotherm for monolayer adsorption and the generalized Brunauer–Emmett–Teller isotherm for multilayer adsorption address various thermodynamic modeling challenges including adsorbent surface heterogeneity, isosteric enthalpies of adsorption, BET surface areas, adsorbed phase nonideality, adsorption azeotrope formation, and multilayer adsorption. Also discussed is the importance of quality adsorption data that cover sufficient temperature, pressure, and composition ranges for reliable determination of the model parameters to support adsorption process simulation, design, and optimization.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Spatially Local Surrogate Modeling of Subgrid-Scale Effects in Idealized Atmospheric Flows: A Deep Learned Approach Using High-Resolution Simulation Data

Abstract We introduce a machine learned surrogate model from high-resolution simulation data to capture the subgrid-scale effects in dry, stratified atmospheric flows. We use deep neural networks (NNs) to model the spatially local state differences between a coarse-resolution simulation and a high-resolution simulation. The setup enables the capture of both dissipative and antidissipative effects in the state differences. The NN model is able to accurately capture the state differences in offline tests outside the training regime. In online tests intended for production use, the NN-coupled coarse simulation has higher accuracy over a significant period of time compared to the coarse-resolution simulation without any correction. We provide evidence of the capability of the NN model to accurately capture high-gradient regions in the flow field. With the accumulation of the errors, the NN-coupled simulation becomes computationally unstable after approximately 90 coarse simulation time steps. Insights gained from these surrogate models further pave the way for formulating stable, complex, physics-based spatially local NN models which are driven by traditional subgrid-scale turbulence closure models. Significance Statement Flows in the atmosphere are highly chaotic and turbulent, comprising flow structures of broad scales. For effective computational modeling of atmospheric flows, the effects of the small- and large-scale structures need to be captured by the simulations. Capturing the small-scale structures requires fine-resolution simulations. Even with the current state-of-the-art supercomputers, it can be prohibitively expensive to simulate these flows when computed for the entire earth over climate time scales. Thus, it is necessary to focus on the larger-scale structures using a coarse-resolution simulation while capturing the effects of the smaller-scale structures using some parameterization (approximation) scheme and incorporating it into the coarse-resolution simulation. We use machine learning to model the effects of the small-scale structures (subgrid-scale effects) in atmospheric flows. Data from a fine-resolution simulation is used to compute the missing subgrid-scale effects in coarse-resolution simulations. We then use machine learning models to approximate these differences between the coarse- and fine-resolution simulations. We see improved accuracy for the coarse-resolution simulations when corrected using these machine learned models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty in Thermal Modeling of Spent Nuclear Fuel Casks

Uncertainty is a key metric in computational modeling that must be evaluated for results to have wide ranging applicability. A well characterized uncertainty range is ideal with clear error bars on results that can be presented to stakeholders. In the field of spent fuel cask modeling, this ideal has been historically difficult to achieve in practice because of the computationally intensive nature of the models used and the difficulty assigning reasonable uncertainties to quantities in as-built systems. The work in this report has been conducted to evaluate the overall state of uncertainty and sensitivity in spent fuel cask models and develop methodologies for evaluating these uncertainties. These methodologies must be practical for engineering applications. They should not require excessive computational resources or calendar time to achieve results. In engineering, the model must be on a scale such that it can be changed and adapted throughout a project as new information is discovered and project goals evolve. This report covers three major modeling task areas that provide an overview of the types of sensitivity and uncertainty present in a spent fuel storage and transportation system. Section 3 discusses sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the effective thermal conductivity model for the fuel region and applies these results to a single assembly model. Section 4 shows sensitivity analysis of a full cask model in the TN-32B and Section 5 demonstrates the overall uncertainty workflow using Coolant Boiling in Rod Arrays – Spent Fuel Storage and STAR-CCM+ developed from the sensitivity work in the preceding sections.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predicting initial trans-membrane pressure across cycles in the ultrafiltration process using random forest

With growing freshwater scarcity, direct potable reuse (DPR) systems that reclaim wastewater for drinking are becoming increasingly important for sustainable water supply. Reliable operation requires minimizing downtime in ultrafiltration (UF) units, where membrane fouling leads to elevated trans-membrane pressure (TMP). This study develops data-driven regression models based on random forest (RF) and autoregressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial TMP at the start of each UF filtration cycle in a pilot-scale DPR system. The RF model consistently outperforms baseline methods, including historical mean, last observation carried forward, and AR models, across multiple forecast horizons, achieving the lowest root mean square error. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent input variables across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is assessed for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches. The proposed RF framework establishes a robust foundation for predictive monitoring and real-time optimization of UF operations, supporting sustainable and reliable water reuse.

direct potable reuse↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advancing Building Energy Modeling with Large Language Models: Exploration and Case Studies

The rapid progression in artificial intelligence has facilitated the emergence of large language models like ChatGPT, offering potential applications extending into specialized engineering modeling, especially physics-based building energy modeling. This paper investigates the innovative integration of large language models with building energy modeling software, focusing specifically on the fusion of ChatGPT with EnergyPlus. A literature review is first conducted to reveal a growing trend of incorporating large language models in engineering modeling, albeit limited research on their application in building energy modeling. We underscore the potential of large language models in addressing building energy modeling challenges and outline potential applications including simulation input generation, simulation output analysis and visualization, conducting error analysis, co-simulation, simulation knowledge extraction and training, and simulation optimization. Three case studies reveal the transformative potential of large language models in automating and optimizing building energy modeling tasks, underscoring the pivotal role of artificial intelligence in advancing sustainable building practices and energy efficiency. The case studies demonstrate that selecting the right large language model techniques is essential to enhance performance and reduce engineering efforts. The findings advocate a multidisciplinary approach in future artificial intelligence research, with implications extending beyond building energy modeling to other specialized engineering modeling.

building energy modeling↗

DOE OSTI2020

Parameter-dependent model-blending with multi-expert based machine learning and proxy sites

A parameter-based multi-model blending method and system are described. The method includes selecting a parameter of interest among parameters estimated by each of a set of individual models, running the set of individual models with a range of inputs to obtain a range of estimates of the parameters from each of the set of individual models, and identifying, for each of the set of individual models, critical parameters among the parameters estimated, the critical parameters exhibiting a specified correlation with an error in estimation of the parameter of interest. For each subspace of combinations of the critical parameters, obtaining a parameter-based blended model is based on blending the set of individual models in accordance with the subspace of the critical parameters, the subspace defining a sub-range for each of the critical parameters.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Parameter-dependent model-blending with multi-expert based machine learning and proxy sites

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Parameter-dependent model-blending with multi-expert based machine learning and proxy sites

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Comprehensive Review and Qualitative Analysis of Micro-Combined Heat and Power Modeling Approaches

Concurrent production of electrical and thermal energy from a Combined Heat and Power (CHP) device is an attractive tool to address the growing energy needs of the planet. Micro CHP (µCHP) systems can reduce a building’s primary energy consumption, reduce carbon footprint, and enhance resiliency. Modeling of the µCHP helps understand the system from multiple perspectives and helps discover errors earlier, improves impact analysis and simulation of system solutions for ease of integration with the building. Consequently, there is a need for analysis of the impact of µCHP modeling approach on its reliability and flexibility. The primary objective of this paper is to review the state-of-the art models in the µCHP space with a focus towards internal combustion engine as the primary mover (PM) and limit the study to system modeling, calibration, and validation methodologies. Based on the analysis, recommendations for further model considerations and refinements are presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗