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Co-benefits of global and regional greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality in 2050

Policies to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will not only slow climate change but can also have ancillary benefits of improved air quality. Here we examine the co-benefits of both global and regional GHG mitigation for US air quality in 2050 at fine resolution, using dynamical downscaling methods, building on a previous global co-benefits study (West et al., 2013). The co-benefits for US air quality are quantified via two mechanisms: through reductions in co-emitted air pollutants from the same sources and by slowing climate change and its influence on air quality, following West et al. (2013). Additionally, we separate the total co-benefits into contributions from domestic GHG mitigation vs. mitigation in foreign countries. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale future global climate to the regional scale and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) program to directly process global anthropogenic emissions to the regional domain, and we provide dynamical boundary conditions from global simulations to the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The total co-benefits of global GHG mitigation from the RCP4.5 scenario compared with its reference are estimated to be higher in the eastern US (ranging from 0.6 to 1.0 µg m -3 ) than the west (0–0.4 µg m -3 ) for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), with an average of 0.47 µg m -3 over the US; for O 3 , the total co-benefits are more uniform at 2–5 ppb, with a US average of 3.55 ppb. Comparing the two mechanisms of co-benefits, we find that reductions in co-emitted air pollutants have a much greater influence on both PM 2.5 (96 % of the total co-benefits) and O 3 (89 % of the total) than the second co-benefits mechanism via slowing climate change, consistent with West et al. (2013). GHG mitigation from foreign countries contributes more to the US O 3 reduction (76 % of the total) than that from domestic GHG mitigation only (24 %), highlighting the importance of global methane reductions and the intercontinental transport of air pollutants. For PM 2.5 , the benefits of domestic GHG control are greater (74 % of total). Since foreign contributions to co-benefits can be substantial, with foreign O 3 benefits much larger than those from domestic reductions, previous studies that focus on local or regional co-benefits may greatly underestimate the total co-benefits of global GHG reductions. We conclude that the US can gain significantly greater domestic air quality co-benefits by engaging with other nations to control GHGs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fully-Coupled Metallic Fuel Performance Simulations using BISON

This document is a set of slides intended to accompany a talk at a meeting. The first topic taken up is zirconium redistribution. The rod edge Zr increase is evidently due to the Soret term and temperature gradient. Then metallic fission gas release modeling is considered. Based on a GRSIS/FEAST model, the approach of generating fission gas in the fuel matrix is described. A sensitivity study on parameters is presented, including sodium bond & diffusion coefficient sensitivity along with dt sensitivity. Finally, results of some coupled simulations are shown, with ideas about future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A Joint Measurement of $\nu_{\mu}$-Disappearance and $\nu_{e}$e-Appearance in the NuMI beam using the NOvA Experiment

The discovery of neutrino oscillations provides the first indication of a lepton flavor violating (LFV) process, one that isn't predicted by the Standard Model. As such, NOvA is part of a rich experimental program to constrain unknown parameters in the neutrino oscillation model, described for three neutrino flavors using the PMNS unitary matrix. It is a long baseline experiment utilizing two detectors, a Near Detector at Fermilab and a Far Detector in Ash River, Minnesota for a total baseline of 810 km. It receives a predominantly ${\nu_\mu}/\overline{\bar\nu_\mu}$ beam peaking at 1:8 GeV from the NuMI beam facility at Fermilab. There are four oscillation channels used in the analysis, ${\nu_\mu} \to {\nu_\mu}$, ${\nu_\mu} \to {\nu_e}$, ${\overline{\nu}_\mu} \to {\overline{\nu}_\mu}$ and ${\overline{\nu}_\mu} \to {\overline{\nu}_e }$. With a total exposure of 13:6_10$^{20}$ and 12:5_10$^{20}$ protons on target for the neutrino and anti-neutrino beam modes respectively, 82 candidates are seen in the ${\nu_\mu} \to {\nu_e}$ channel for a total predicted backgroundof 26:8 events. Similarly, 33 candidates are seen in the corresponding anti-neutrino channel for a total predicted background of 14:0 events. In the ${\nu_\mu} \to {\nu_\mu}$ $(\overline{\nu}_\mu \to \overline{\nu}_\mu}$ channel, 211 (105) candidates are seen with an expectation of 1156.1 (488.1) events at no oscillations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Sorption Behavior of Cationic Radionuclides on Biotite Flakes at pH 5 - 17326

Biotite contained in crystalline rock (granite) is a notable mineral because of its high sorption effects for cationic radionuclides. To date, studies on the sorption effects of rocks have focused on the powder form of minerals. However, the form of a mineral will seriously affect its sorption of radionuclides. This study examined the sorption of Cs, Sr, and Eu by biotite in the flake form. Biotite flakes (5 mm x 6 mm) were prepared for the sorption experiments. The initial concentrations of the tracer ions were set to 1 mM for Sr and Eu and 2 mM for Cs. The sorption experiments for Cs, Sr, and Eu were conducted by mixing 0.6 g of biotite flakes and 6 mL of trace solution at pH 5 for 7 days. As a result, the sorption of tracer ions gradually increased with continuous diffusion into the biotite flakes. The diffusion of the tracer ions into the layer structure of biotite was also observed by secondary ion-microprobe mass spectrometry (SIMS) analysis. The apparent diffusion coefficient of Eu into the biotite flakes was estimated to be 3.0 x 10-12 m{sup 2}/s by applying the experimental data to a theoretical model. This estimated diffusion coefficient is smaller than that for matrix diffusion in granite. Therefore, these diffusion and sorption behaviors may be important factors to consider to more reliably estimate the migration rates of radionuclides in host rock. (authors)

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A model for discrete fracture-clay rock interaction incorporating electrostatic effects on transport

Abstract A model based on the code CrunchClay is presented for a fracture-clay matrix system that takes electrostatic effects on transport into account. The electrostatic effects on transport include those associated with the development of a diffusion potential as captured by the Nernst-Planck equation, and the formation of a diffuse layer bordering negatively charged clay particles within which partial anion exclusion occurs. The model is based on a dual continuum formulation that accounts for diffuse layer and bulk water pore space, providing a more flexible framework than is found in the classical mean electrostatic potential models. The diffuse layer model is obtained by volume averaging ion concentrations in the Poisson-Boltzmann equation, but also includes the treatment of longitudinal transport within this continuum. The calculation of transport within the bulk and diffuse layer porosity is based on a new formulation for the Nernst-Planck equation that considers averaging of diffusion coefficients and accumulation factors at grid cell interfaces. Equations for function residuals and the associated Jacobian matrix are presented such that the system of nonlinear differential-algebraic equations can be solved with Newton’s method. As an example, we consider a 2D system with a single discrete fracture within which flow and advective transport occurs that is coupled to diffusion in the clay-rich matrix. The simulation results demonstrate the lack of retardation for anions (e.g., 36 Cl − ) of the contaminant plume within the fracture flow system because they are largely excluded from the charged clay rock, while the migration of cations (e.g., 90 Sr ++ ) is more strongly attenuated. The diffusive loss of divalent cations in particular from the fracture is accentuated by their accumulation in the diffuse layer within the clay-rich matrix.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Mitigating baryonic effects with a theoretical error covariance

ABSTRACT One of the primary sources of uncertainties in modelling the cosmic-shear power spectrum on small scales is the effect of baryonic physics. Accurate cosmology for stage-IV surveys requires knowledge of the matter power spectrum deep in the non-linear regime at the per cent level. Therefore, it is important to develop reliable mitigation techniques to take into account baryonic uncertainties if information from small scales is to be considered in the cosmological analysis. In this work, we develop a new mitigation method for dealing with baryonic physics for the case of the shear angular power spectrum. The method is based on an augmented covariance matrix that incorporates baryonic uncertainties informed by hydrodynamical simulations. We use the results from 13 hydrodynamical simulations and the residual errors arising from a fit to a ΛCDM model using the extended halo model code HMCode to account for baryonic physics. These residual errors are used to model a so-called theoretical error covariance matrix that is added to the original covariance matrix. In order to assess the performance of the method, we use the 2D tomographic shear from four hydrodynamical simulations that have different extremes of baryonic parameters as mock data and run a likelihood analysis comparing the residual bias on Ωm and σ8 of our method and the HMCode for an LSST-like survey. We use different modelling of the theoretical error covariance matrix to test the robustness of the method. We show that it is possible to reduce the bias in the determination of the tested cosmological parameters at the price of a modest decrease in the precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Self-generation of dissipative solitons in magnonic quasicrystal active ring resonator

Self-generation of dissipative solitons in the magnonic quasicrystal (MQC) active ring resonator is studied theoretically and experimentally. The developed magnonic crystal has quasiperiodic Fibonacci type structure. Frequency selectivity of the MQC together with the parametric three-wave decay of magnetostatic surface spin wave (MSSW) leads to the dissipative soliton self-generation. The transfer matrix method is used to describe MQC transmission responses. Besides, the model of MQC active ring resonator is suggested. The model includes three coupled differential equations describing the parametric decay of MSSW and two differential equations of linear oscillators describing the frequency selectivity of MQC. Numerical simulation results of dissipative soliton self-generation are in a fair agreement with experimental data.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

TH-CD-207A-03: A Surface Deformation Driven Respiratory Model for Organ Motion Tracking in Lung Cancer Radiotherapy

Purpose: To propose and validate a novel real-time surface-mesh-based internal organ-external surface motion and deformation tracking method for lung cancer radiotherapy. Methods: Deformation vector fields (DVFs) which characterizes the internal and external motion are obtained by registering the internal organ and tumor contours and external surface meshes to a reference phase in the 4D CT images using a recent developed local topology preserved non-rigid point matching algorithm (TOP). A composite matrix is constructed by combing the estimated internal and external DVFs. Principle component analysis (PCA) is then applied on the composite matrix to extract principal motion characteristics and finally yield the respiratory motion model parameters which correlates the internal and external motion and deformation. The accuracy of the respiratory motion model is evaluated using a 4D NURBS-based cardiac-torso (NCAT) synthetic phantom and three lung cancer cases. The center of mass (COM) difference is used to measure the tumor motion tracking accuracy, and the Dice’s coefficient (DC), percent error (PE) and Housdourf’s distance (HD) are used to measure the agreement between the predicted and ground truth tumor shape. Results: The mean COM is 0.84±0.49mm and 0.50±0.47mm for the phantom and patient data respectively. The mean DC, PE and HD are 0.93±0.01, 0.13±0.03 and 1.24±0.34 voxels for the phantom, and 0.91±0.04, 0.17±0.07 and 3.93±2.12 voxels for the three lung cancer patients, respectively. Conclusions: We have proposed and validate a real-time surface-mesh-based organ motion and deformation tracking method with an internal-external motion modeling. The preliminary results conducted on a synthetic 4D NCAT phantom and 4D CT images from three lung cancer cases show that the proposed method is reliable and accurate in tracking both the tumor motion trajectory and deformation, which can serve as a potential tool for real-time organ motion and deformation monitoring in lung cancer radiotherapy. This work is supported in part by grant from VARIAN MEDICAL SYSTEMS INC, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (no 81428019 and no 81301940), the Guangdong Natural Science Foundation (2015A030313302)and the 2015 Pearl River S&T Nova Program of Guangzhou (201506010096).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Matrix Diffusion Controls Mountain Hillslope Groundwater Ages and Inferred Storage Dynamics

Groundwater age distributions provide fundamental insights on coupled water and biogeochemical processes in mountain watersheds. Field-based studies have found mixtures of young and old-aged groundwater in mountain catchments underlain by bedrock; yet, the processes that dictate these groundwater age distributions are poorly understood. In this work, we use the coupled ParFlow-CLM integrated hydrologic and EcoSLIM particle tracking models to simulate groundwater age distributions on a lower montane hillslope in the East River Watershed, Colorado (USA). We develop a convolution-based approach to propagate fracture-matrix diffusion processes to the EcoSLIM advection-dominated age distributions. We compare observed 3 H and 4 He concentrations from two groundwater wells against model predictions that have varying advective transport times and matrix diffusion magnitudes. Based on a Monte Carlo analysis that considers uncertain matrix and fracture parameters, we find that matrix diffusion is needed to jointly predict 3 H and 4 He observations at both wells. The advection-dominated age distributions lack adequate mixing of young and old-aged water to capture the observed co-occurrence of 3 H and 4 He. The model scenario that best matches the 3 H, 4 He, and water level observations when considering both advective flowpath and matrix diffusion mixing processes has a dynamic bedrock groundwater reservoir that is susceptible to considerable storage losses during low-snow periods. This dynamic groundwater system amplifies the need to assimilate deeper bedrock groundwater into watershed hydro-biogeochemical predictions. This work further highlights the importance of considering matrix diffusion when interpreting environmental tracers in bedrock groundwater systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of the t-channel single-top-quark production cross section and of the $\mid V_{tb} \mid$ CKM matrix element in pp collisions at $\sqrt{s}$= 8 TeV

Our measurements are presented of the t-channel single-top-quark production cross section in proton-proton collisions at √s = 8 TeV. The results are based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 19.7 fb -1 recorded with the CMS detector at the LHC. The cross section is measured inclusively, as well as separately for top (t) and antitop (t¯), in final states with a muon or an electron. The measured inclusive t-channel cross section is σ t-ch. = 83.6 ± 2.3 (stat.) ± 7.4 (syst.) pb. The single t and t¯ cross sections are measured to be σ t-ch. (t) = 53.8 ± 1.5 (stat.) ± 4.4 (syst.) pb and σ t-ch. (t¯) = 27.6 ± 1.3 (stat.) ± 3.7 (syst.) pb, respectively. The measured ratio of cross sections is R t-ch. = σ t-ch. (t)/σ t-ch. (t¯) = 1.95 ± 0.10 (stat.) ± 0.19 (syst.), in agreement with the standard model prediction. Finally, the modulus of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element V tb is extracted and, in combination with a previous CMS result at √s = 7 TeV, a value |V tb | = 0.998 ± 0.038 (exp.) ± 0.016 (theo.) is obtained.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

WE-AB-207B-07: Dose Cloud: Generating “Big Data” for Radiation Therapy Treatment Plan Optimization Research

Purpose: To provide a tool to generate large sets of realistic virtual patient geometries and beamlet doses for treatment optimization research. This tool enables countless studies exploring the fundamental interplay between patient geometry, objective functions, weight selections, and achievable dose distributions for various algorithms and modalities. Methods: Generating realistic virtual patient geometries requires a small set of real patient data. We developed a normalized patient shape model (PSM) which captures organ and target contours in a correspondence-preserving manner. Using PSM-processed data, we perform principal component analysis (PCA) to extract major modes of variation from the population. These PCA modes can be shared without exposing patient information. The modes are re-combined with different weights to produce sets of realistic virtual patient contours. Because virtual patients lack imaging information, we developed a shape-based dose calculation (SBD) relying on the assumption that the region inside the body contour is water. SBD utilizes a 2D fluence-convolved scatter kernel, derived from Monte Carlo simulations, and can compute both full dose for a given set of fluence maps, or produce a dose matrix (dose per fluence pixel) for many modalities. Combining the shape model with SBD provides the data needed for treatment plan optimization research. Results: We used PSM to capture organ and target contours for 96 prostate cases, extracted the first 20 PCA modes, and generated 2048 virtual patient shapes by randomly sampling mode scores. Nearly half of the shapes were thrown out for failing anatomical checks, the remaining 1124 were used in computing dose matrices via SBD and a standard 7-beam protocol. As a proof of concept, and to generate data for later study, we performed fluence map optimization emphasizing PTV coverage. Conclusions: We successfully developed and tested a tool for creating customizable sets of virtual patients suitable for large-scale radiation therapy optimization research.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Enabling Nanoparticle Networking in Semicrystalline Polymer Matrices

Among the physical and chemical attributes of the nanocomposite components and their interactions that contribute to the ultimate material properties, nanoparticle arrangement in the matrix is a key contributing factor that has been targeted through materials choices and processing strategies in numerous previous studies. Often, the desired nanocomposite morphology contains individually dispersed and distributed nanoparticles. In this research, a phase-segregated morphology containing nanoparticle networks was studied. A model nanocomposite system composed of calcium phosphate nanoparticles and a poly(3-hydroxybutyrate) matrix was produced to understand how polymer crystallization and crystal structure can facilitate the formation of a phase-segregated morphology containing nanoparticle networks. Two chemically similar calcium phosphate nanoparticle systems with different shapes, near-spherical and nanofiber, were synthesized for use in the nanocomposites. The different shapes were used independently in nanocomposites in an attempt to understand the effect of the nanoparticle shapes on crystallization-mediated nanoparticle network formation. The resulting nanocomposites were characterized to establish the effects of component interactions on the polymer structure. Additionally from the viscoelastic properties, structure-property relationships in these materials can be defined as a function of nanoparticle shape and concentration. The results of this research suggest that when the nanocomposite components are not strongly interacting, polymer crystallization may be used as a forced assembly method for nanoparticle networks. Such a methodology has applications to the design of functional polymer nanocomposites such as biomedical implant materials and organic photovoltaic materials where judicious choice of nanoparticle-polymer pairs and control of polymer crystal nucleation and growth processes could be used to control the length scale of phase segregation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mathematical model of gas plasma applied to chronic wounds

Chronic wounds are a major burden for worldwide health care systems, and patients suffer pain and discomfort from this type of wound. Recently gas plasmas have been shown to safely speed chronic wounds healing. In this paper, we develop a deterministic mathematical model formulated by eight-species reaction-diffusion equations, and use it to analyze the plasma treatment process. The model follows spatial and temporal concentration within the wound of oxygen, chemoattractants, capillary sprouts, blood vessels, fibroblasts, extracellular matrix material, nitric oxide (NO), and inflammatory cell. Two effects of plasma, increasing NO concentration and reducing bacteria load, are considered in this model. The plasma treatment decreases the complete healing time from 25 days (normal wound healing) to 17 days, and the contributions of increasing NO concentration and reducing bacteria load are about 1/4 and 3/4, respectively. Increasing plasma treatment frequency from twice to three times per day accelerates healing process. Finally, the response of chronic wounds of different etiologies to treatment with gas plasmas is analyzed.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Dynamics of entanglement in expanding quantum fields

Here, we develop a novel real-time approach to computing the entanglement between spatial regions for Gaussian states in quantum field theory. The entanglement entropy is characterized in terms of local correlation functions on space-like Cauchy hypersurfaces. The framework is applied to explore an expanding light cone geometry in the particular case of the Schwinger model for quantum electrodynamics in 1+1 space-time dimensions. We observe that the entanglement entropy becomes extensive in rapidity at early times and that the corresponding local reduced density matrix is a thermal density matrix for excitations around a coherent field with a time dependent temperature. Since the Schwinger model successfully describes many features of multiparticle production in e + e - collisions, our results provide an attractive explanation in this framework for the apparent thermal nature of multiparticle production even in the absence of significant final state scattering.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Phenotype anchoring in zebrafish reveals a potential role for matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) in tamoxifen's effects on skin epithelium

The zebrafish is a powerful alternative model used to link phenotypes with molecular effects to discover drug mode of action. Using a zebrafish embryo-larval toxicity bioassay, we evaluated the effects of tamoxifen — a widely used anti-estrogen chemotherapeutic. Zebrafish exposed to ≥ 10 μM tamoxifen exhibited a unique necrotic caudal fin phenotype that was rapidly induced regardless of developmental life-stage when treatment was applied. To define tamoxifen's bioactivity resulting in this phenotype, targeted gene expression was used to evaluate 100 transcripts involved in tissue remodeling, calcium signaling, cell cycle and cell death, growth factors, angiogenesis and hypoxia. The most robustly misregulated transcripts in the tail were matrix metalloproteinases mmp9 and mmp13a, induced 127 and 1145 fold, respectively. Expression of c-fos, c-jun, and ap1s1 were also moderately elevated (3–7 fold), consistent with AP-1 activity — a transcription factor that regulates MMP expression. Immunohistochemistry confirmed high levels of induction for MMP13a in affected caudal fin skin epithelial tissue. The necrotic caudal fin phenotype was significantly attenuated or prevented by three functionally unique MMP inhibitors: EDTA (metal chelator), GM 6001 (broad MMP inhibitor), and SR 11302 (AP-1 transcription factor inhibitor), suggesting MMP-dependence. SR 11302 also inhibited induction of mmp9, mmp13a, and a putative MMP target, igfbp1a. Overall, our studies suggest that tamoxifen's effect is the result of perturbation of the MMP system in the skin leading to ectopic expression, cytotoxicity, and the necrotic caudal fin phenotype. These studies help advance our understanding of tamoxifen's non-classical mode of action and implicate a possible role for MMPs in tissues such as skin. - Highlights: • Tamoxifen rapidly induced a unique necrotic caudal fin phenotype in zebrafish. • Apoptosis co-localized temporally and spatially in the necrotic tail. • The necrotic fin phenotype was p53, GPER and ER independent. • The necrotic fin phenotype was dependent on ectopic MMP induction and activity in the skin. • The necrotic fin phenotype occurred at concentrations exceeding anti-estrogenic effects.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

How electronic dynamics with Pauli exclusion produces Fermi-Dirac statistics

It is important that any dynamics method approaches the correct population distribution at long times. In this paper, we derive a one-body reduced density matrix dynamics for electrons in energetic contact with a bath. We obtain a remarkable equation of motion which shows that in order to reach equilibrium properly, rates of electron transitions depend on the density matrix. Even though the bath drives the electrons towards a Boltzmann distribution, hole blocking factors in our equation of motion cause the electronic populations to relax to a Fermi-Dirac distribution. These factors are an old concept, but we show how they can be derived with a combination of time-dependent perturbation theory and the extended normal ordering of Mukherjee and Kutzelnigg for a general electronic state. The resulting non-equilibrium kinetic equations generalize the usual Redfield theory to many-electron systems, while ensuring that the orbital occupations remain between zero and one. In numerical applications of our equations, we show that relaxation rates of molecules are not constant because of the blocking effect. Other applications to model atomic chains are also presented which highlight the importance of treating both dephasing and relaxation. Finally, we show how the bath localizes the electron density matrix.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Including parameter dependence in the data and covariance for cosmological inference

The final step of most large-scale structure analyses involves the comparison of power spectra or correlation functions to theoretical models. It is clear that the theoretical models have parameter dependence, but frequently the measurements and the covariance matrix depend upon some of the parameters as well. We show that a very simple interpolation scheme from an unstructured mesh allows for an efficient way to include this parameter dependence self-consistently in the analysis at modest computational expense. We describe two schemes for covariance matrices. The scheme which uses the geometric structure of such matrices performs roughly twice as well as the simplest scheme, though both perform very well.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗