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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Urban morphology and urban water demand evolution in the Los Angeles region

Detailed description of the dataset sources used in this study, the experimental workflow, and plotting for the paper figures provided at the associated GitHub Meta Repo: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/Ferencz_et_al_2024_ERL The future water demand projections from this study are hypothetical future water demands that reflect the population and urban land cover changes represented by the scenarios considered. The intent and emphasis of this work is investigating the interactions between population change, evolution of urban morphology, and water demand. These projections are not meant to be likely future demands for specific water providers or the LA region and should not be interpreted as such. The folders contain input and output data for each step of the "Recreate my Experiment" workflow described in the associated GitHub meta-repository as well as data used for plotting Figures for the paper that this dataset supports. Description of each folder's contents and use: Step_1a: Inputs to the associated python script provided on the GitHub repo. Step_1b: Inputs (downscaled population rasters) used by the associated python script provided on the GitHub repo. Original 1-km squared rasters that were downscaled also provided. Step_1c: Urban growth projection rasters corresponding to SSP3 and SSP5 population scenarios are provided in separate subfolders as well as the water provider boundaries used for analysis. Outputs of data processing also provided. Associated python script provided on GitHub. Step_1d: Description of Inputs used by the QGIS Model Builder GUI that automates geospatial processing and clipping the of the high-resolution 60 cm land cover data for each urban land class footprint within a defined polygon boundary. The Model Builder is provided on the GitHub repo and can be used by QGIS. The outputs of this step are in "Clipped Provider Hi Res Landcover". If the user wants to use The Model Builder for different regions of LA or to test our outputs, they will need to download the hi resolution landcover raster listed in the Readme and in Ref [2] of the GitHub Page. Step_1e: All necessary inputs to generate average monthly demand over the 2017-2021 period and the minimum and maximum demands over the 2014-2021 for each water provider. Associated python scripts are on GitHub. Step 2: Output data about land cover metrics (areas and fractions) for each urban land class for each water provider. Associated python script on GitHub. Uses outputs from Step 1d "Clipped Provider Hi Res Landcover" Step 3: Both the Inputs for and Outputs from the urban projection raster analysis Python script on GitHub. The inputs are urban land class rasters for specific SSP and zoning scenarios (low, medium, high) from Step 1c. The outputs are rasters of urban pixels that were converted to a higher land class and the number of land class units that changed (Values of 1, 2, or 3). For example, a value of 2 could be LC 21 -> 23 or LC 22 -> 24. These maps are label "intensification." The other outputs are "urban growth" rasters showing the conversion of non urban to urban land, which are indicated by pixel values of 1. These are used for the urban growth change maps in Figure 3. Step 4: Output projections of indoor and outdoor annual and monthly demands for each water provider for the average, minimum, and maximum monthly demand scenarios for each of the four urban growth scenarios (SSP3 med, SSP5 low, SSP5 med, and SSP5 high). The outputs also include metrics on each water provider used for the demand sensitivity analysis presented in Figure 8. Outputs from Step 4 are used for Figures 4 - 8 of the paper. Figures: This folder has data used for plotting Figures 1 through 5, and 8. Data for Figures 6 and 7 are sourced directly from folders associated with the Processing and Analysis Steps 1 - 4. The GitHub meta repository provides descriptions of how each figure was made and the associated plotting scripts used.

Los Angeles↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heat Pump Retrofits for Central Plant Hydronic Heating Systems: A Software Toolkit for Screening and Design

Retrofitting existing central plants with high-efficiency heat pump technologies can play a crucial role in achieving long-term planning goals. Modern heat pump technologies are able to use waste heat recovery to meet a building's heating demand, but there is a lack of accessible tools designed for non-HVAC experts, such as building owners, to quickly and easily conduct what-if analysis, e.g., estimating retrofit costs and payback period for their partial or full equipment replacement. This paper introduces an open-source software toolkit designed to facilitate the initial screening and decision-making of heat pump retrofits in existing central plants using a building's yearly load profile from metered or utility bill data. The toolkit evaluates the technical and economic viability of replacing traditional central plant equipment with various options including water-to-water or air-to-water heat pumps, which can provide efficient and lower-cost heating and cooling. It allows users to compare current central plant configurations with retrofit scenarios, assessing energy consumption, life-cycle costs, and environmental impact. The toolkit offers (1) a web-based tool designed for user-friendly access by a broad audience and (2) Python-based source code for researchers and engineers conducting parametric studies and design parameter optimization. The toolkit compares a typical central plant configuration to a configuration that uses a heat pump to supply hydronic heating and cooling. The output metrics include energy consumption and output of each equipment, life-cycle cost analyses and metrics, and environmental impact of the system.

Excell, L↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Perovskite Solar Cells and Modules

The “Advanced perovskite Cells and Modules” research project was the final agreement focused on enhancing perovskite solar cell (PSC) technologies funded by the US Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Office. The project was designed to address three crucial areas in PSC development: stability, manufacturability, and efficiency. The project was then structured around three main tasks, each targeting one of these strategic goals. The team of experienced researchers in these materials worked collaboratively to address the targets outlined in the technical work plan. building on existing PSC research while also exploring promising new concepts arising in the field. An overview of each primary task is summarized below: Task 1 Stability: This first task, aims to identify material characteristics and metrics that can help predict the primary degradation mechanisms impacting PSC stability. This involved developing specific device tests based on hypotheses regarding mechanisms impacting stability, including fast failure procedures to speed up PSC development and improvement. Various strategies to enhance stability, like incorporating additives, post-treatments, novel contact materials etc. were developed using this fast feedback approach. The relationships between indoor and outdoor stresses were also validated. Task 2 Manufacturability: This second task, focused on creating a scalable production process for PSCs. Initially the objective is to establish a best-known method for a 182 cm2 minimodule. However, given resource limitations, these metrics were modified to focus on the other goal of outlined in the TWP. Specifically, this task worked to demonstrate the transferability of this best-known method to another research institution. Work scope in this area was expanded to material purity and understanding of reagent/process relationships. Examination of other difficulties in PSC production and potential solutions for large-scale production were also evaluated. Given challenges observed in process transfer, work to develop data infrastructure and recording tools for processing of material and devices was then also prioritized in this task. Task 3 Efficiency: This task was focused on improvements to PCE, while still considering Task 1 and Task 2 goal. The efforts targeted a PCE greater than 22% with a T95 exceeding 1000 hours at 25°C in a nitrogen environment for lab-scale devices (approximately 0.1 cm2 devices) across a range of solar-relevant perovskite compositions, including wide-gap (around 1.7 eV) and low-gap (around 1.3 eV) materials, using standard metal contacts. This work then provides a foundation for MHP-based tandem efforts undertaken in other projects and the All-MHP tandem efforts outlined in this projects TWP. Work in this project emphasized disseminating its findings through peer-reviewed publications (PRP), conference presentations, and industrial collaborations. Significant products were produced in all these areas, over 53 peer reviewed publications, 32 conference presentations and industrial investment based on NLR assistance on precompetitive challenges. The team also developed significant intellectual property and awards for their technical excellence, innovations and leadership. The team also leveraged traditional and social media platforms to engage with stakeholders and the public.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

IDAES-PSE Software Tools for Optimizing Energy Systems and Market Interactions

Modern power grids coordinate electricity production and consumption via multi-scale wholesale energy markets. Historically, levelized cost metrics were the de facto standard for techno-eco-nomic analyses of energy systems and comparison of technology options. However, these metrics neglect the complexity of energy infrastructure including the time-varying value of electricity. An emerging alternative is multi-period optimization, which considers the locational marginal price of electricity as input data (parameters). In this work, we present a general interface for multi-period optimization with time-varying energy prices to facilitate rapid analysis and comparison of potential energy systems models. The PriceTakerModel class is written in the IDAES-PSE platform and allows users to generate a multi-period, price-taker model instance, as well as automatically generate common operational constraints for their model, such as start-up and shutdown. We show this interface successfully generates multi-period price-taker models, facilitates model discrimination, and aids in analyzing various technologies for deployment in unique energy markets.

Laky, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2024

Role of Hydrogen as Fuel in Decarbonizing US Clinker Manufacturing for Cement Production: Costs and CO2 Emissions Reduction Potentials

As a low-carbon fuel, feedstock, and energy source, hydrogen is expected to play a vital role in the decarbonization of high-temperature process heat during the pyroprocessing steps of clinker production in cement manufacturing. However, to accurately assess its potential for reducing CO2 emissions and the associated costs in clinker production applications, a techno-economic analysis and a study of facility-level CO2 emissions are necessary. Assuming that up to 20% hydrogen can be blended in clinker fuel mix without significant changes in equipment configuration, this study evaluates the potential reduction in CO2 emissions (scopes 1 and 2) and cost implications when replacing current carbon-intensive fuels with hydrogen. Using the direct energy substitution method, we developed an Excel-based model of clinker production, considering different hydrogen–blend scenarios. Hydrogen from steam methane reformer (gray) and renewable-based electrolysis (green) are considered as sources of hydrogen fuel for blend scenarios of 5%–20%. Metrics such as the cost of cement production, facility-level CO2 emissions, and cost of CO2 avoided were computed. Results show that for hydrogen blends (gray or green) between 5% and 20%, the cost of cement increases by 0.6% to 16%, with only a 0.4% to 6% reduction in CO2 emissions. When the cost of CO2 avoided was computed, the extra cost required to reduce CO2 emissions is $229 to $358/ metric ton CO2. In summary, although green hydrogen shows promise as a low-carbon fuel, its adoption for decarbonizing clinker production is currently impeded by costs.

Okeke, Ikenna J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

SITCOMTN-154: Initial studies of photometric redshifts with LSSTComCam from DP1

This technote holds reports based on the first analyses of the Data Preview 1 (DP1) data by the Science Unit for photometric redshifts. Although photometric redshifts are not an official DP1 data product, the "Photo-z Science Unit" generated photo-z estimates for every galaxy in DP1 using the available multi-band imaging on a best-effort basis. This work included developing training and test datasets by matching DP1 data to high-quality reference redshifts obtained with spectroscopy, Grism data, and multi-band photometry. The Science Unit used the RAIL software package to make photometric redshift estimates using eight different algorithms, developed simple scientific performance metrics, used those metrics to explore how the performance of the algorithms varied with configuration changes, derived more optimized configurations of the algorithms and tested the performance of those configurations. This work, the resulting data products and expected data distribution mechanism are all described there.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

PSTN-051: Survey Strategy and Cadence Choices for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST)

A summary of survey strategy and cadence choices, simulated and evaluated by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) Scheduler Team, prepared for the Survey Cadence and Optimization Committee (SCOC). A large telescope survey, covering the entire visible sky repeatedly every few days in multiple bandpasses over the course of ten years, is the core idea of the LSST. An area of about 20,000 square degrees observed under a wide range of conditions to deep coadded limiting magnitudes in bandpasses ugrizy enables cosmological studies and studies of the Milky Way structure with unprecedented precision; the same survey, when cadenced well, can serve to open new windows into our understanding of transient and variable stars, and extend our knowledge of small bodies throughout the Solar System by orders of magnitude. The outlines of, and some basic necessary requirements for these goals are outlined in the LSST Science Requirements Document (SRD). Finding options for the observing strategy to meet more detailed needs of an even wider range of science goals, as well as building the LSST Scheduler and Metrics Analysis Framework, has been the work of the LSST Scheduler Team with support and input from the astronomical community, including the Community Observing Strategy Evaluation Paper (COSEP), the Call for White Papers, numerous performance metrics, and guidance from the LSST Science Advisory Committee in their Recommendations for Operations Simulator Experiments. This report will help enable the SCOC to make its recommendation for the preferred survey strategy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis - NLR Historical Wind

The U.S. Department of Energy and the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) demonstrate hydrogen electrolysis from variable sources, hydrogen compression and storage, and hydrogen fuel cell power production using megawatt-scale equipment at NLR’s Flatirons Campus as part of the Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) initiative. This dataset represents part of that effort and is intended for academic, national laboratory, industrial, and other stakeholders to plan, design, and validate models of megawatt-scale hydrogen technologies and diverse energy infrastructure nationwide. These data provide a baseline for how existing hydrogen electrolysis technologies perform when coupled with various energy technologies. Future datasets will demonstrate how existing hydrogen fuel cell technologies can provide controllable, dispatchable, and variable power output for artificial intelligence (AI) data centers and other variable loads. This dataset entry describes hydrogen production by conducting a statistical analysis of historical wind data over a five-year period (2020-2025) from a single 1.5MW turbine manufactured by General Electric (GE) located at NLR’s Flatirons Campus, to generate an experimental test profile that was deployed on a 1.25-MW proton exchange membrane type MC250 electrolyzer system manufactured by Nel Hydrogen . [1] While the electrolyzer balance-of-plant supports up to 2.5 MW of electrolysis, NLR only has a single 1.25-MW electrolysis stack. The historical wind data provided several metrics, however, the analysis particularly focused on the measured power output by the wind turbine. The power output time series of data for each day was categorized by total energy generation and standard deviation, and the day that represented the highest combination of these two metrics was chosen – December 25th, 2022. This process was then repeated for a moving four-hour window within this day to identify the most statistically variable period. Finally, this four-hour period was scaled by 65% to match the 1.25 MW electrolyzer. The electrolysis system controls hydrogen production by varying DC current applied to the stack, from a maximum of 3000 A to a minimum safe operation of 300 A, or 10%. Because the current – voltage characteristic changes as the stack ages and efficiency degrades, the actual minimum safe operating power changes over time. The historical wind profiles were translated from power (kilowatts) to current (amperes) using a curve fit with calibration data and sent to the electrolyzer power supply at 1 Hz frequency. For more details on the statistical analysis process, see the presentation labeled “ Public Reference Data for Megawatt-Scale Hydrogen Electrolysis” provided with each data entry. These datasets report relevant hydrogen balance-of-plant and system data, all captured at 1 Hz, including hydrogen mass production measured with an Emerson Coriolis flow meter. Each .zip file represents a single wind turbine electrolysis experiment and is formatted as follows: {technology}_{scaling factor}-{electrolyzer ramp rate in amperes/second} For instance, “wind-GE1.5MW_0.65-400.zip” represents the hour-long experiment using historical data from the wind-GE1.5MW turbine, scaled to 65%, with the electrolyzer power supply set to a maximum ramp rate (gain and slew) of 400 A/s. Each .zip folder contains the following files: A .csv file containing raw data An .xlsx file explaining all the fields in the raw data. A .png plot showing the time series of hydrogen production, electrolysis power consumption, and wind power input. A PDF file detailing the historical wind data statistical analysis used to generate the wind profile. An experiment labeled “characterization_200.zip” demonstrates the MC250 electrolyzer steady-state response with 30-minute load steps for a total duration of 5 hours. Finally, a .csv file is provided with all simulated wind experiments combined into one dataset labeled "combined_historical_wind_experiments.csv". NLR also built an AI/machine-learning predictive model based on these datasets. The model ingests the electrolyzer current command in amperes, as well as various pressures and temperatures across the system, and predicts hydrogen output in kilograms per hour. The complete model can be found at https://huggingface.co/NatLabRockies/ptmelt-hydrogen-electrolysis [1] nelhydrogen.com/product/mc-series-electrolyser .

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2020

NREL Solar Data, Analysis, & Tools: FY19 Research Dissemination Statistics

This report summarizes the key Fiscal Year 2019 (FY19) outreach metrics for the NREL Solar Data, Analysis, and Tools (DAT) portfolio. All metrics herein reflect the reporting period of Oct. 1, 2018, through Sept. 30, 2019. These projects are all supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Office Soft Costs program.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

2018 Renewable Energy Grid Integration Data Book

The 2018 Renewable Energy Grid Integration Data Book identifies the status, key trends, challenges, and solutions of renewable energy grid integration in a highly visual format. It provides an overview of selected key grid integration metrics that represent complex interactions among generation characteristics, market rules, and environmental and safety factors, which may vary by geography, season, and time of day; and the data book presents metrics that either indicate how much variable renewable energy (VRE) is currently being integrated onto the grid or measure factors that may increase or decrease the challenges associated with integrating VRE generation onto the grid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Software classification using phylogenetic techniques

Software, such as malware, may be classified using phylogenetic techniques. An evolutionary history of a representative set of software programs may be reconstructed to generate a reference phylogeny. Dynamic traces of the representative software programs may be obtained. The dynamic traces may include time-ordered sequences of execution commands extracted from running software binaries. Metrics may be developed using the dynamic traces. One or more unknown software programs may then be classified against the reference phylogeny using the metrics developed using the dynamic traces of the representative set of software programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Loosely Conditioned Emulation of Global Climate Models With Generative Adversarial Networks

Climate models encapsulate our best understanding of the Earth system, allowing research to be conducted on its future under alternative assumptions of how human-driven climate forces are going to evolve. An important application of climate models is to provide metrics of mean and extreme climate changes, particularly under these alternative future scenarios, as these quantities drive the impacts of climate on society and natural systems. Because of the need to explore a wide range of alternative scenarios and other sources of uncertainties in a computationally efficient manner, climate models can only take us so far, as they require significant computational resources, especially when attempting to characterize extreme events, which are rare and thus demand long and numerous simulations in order to accurately represent their changing statistics. Here we use deep learning in a proof of concept that lays the foundation for emulating global climate model output for different scenarios. We train two "loosely conditioned" Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) that emulate daily precipitation output from a fully coupled Earth system model: one GAN modeling Fall-Winter behavior and the other Spring-Summer. Our GANs are trained to produce spatiotemporal samples: 32 days of precipitation over a 64x128 regular grid discretizing the globe. We evaluate the generator with a set of related performance metrics based upon KL divergence, and find the generated samples to be nearly as well matched to the test data as the validation data is to test. We also find the generated samples to accurately estimate the mean number of dry days and mean longest dry spell in the 32 day samples. Our trained GANs can rapidly generate numerous realizations at a vastly reduced computational expense, compared to large ensembles of climate models, which greatly aids in estimating the statistics of extreme events.

climate emulation, extreme climate, impacts, machi↗
DOE OSTI2020

EVALUATION OF CONTROLLED END GAS AUTO IGNITION WITH EXHAUST GAS RECIRCULATION IN A STOICHIOMETRIC, SPARK IGNITED, NATURAL GAS ENGINE

Many stationary and heavy-duty on-road natural gas fueled engines today operate under stoichiometric conditions with a three-way catalyst. The disadvantage of stoichiometric natural gas engines compared to lean-burn natural gas and diesel engines is lower efficiency, resulting primarily from lower power density and compression ratio. Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) coupled with advanced combustion controls can enable operation with higher compression ratio and power density, which yields higher efficiency. This also results in engine operation between the limits of knock and misfire. Operation between these limits has been named controlled end gas auto-ignition (C-EGAI) and can be used to improve the brake efficiency of the engine. Various methods of cylinder pressure-based knock quantification were explored to implement C-EGAI. The indicated quantification methods are used for the implementation of a control scheme for C-EGAI with a relation to the fractional heat release due to auto-ignition. A custom EGR system was built and the effect of EGR on the performance of a stochiometric, spark ignited, natural gas engine is evaluated. C-EGAI is implemented and the optimal parameters are determined for peak performance under EGR and C-EGAI conditions. In this study, knock detection is used for the recognition, magnitude, and location of the auto-ignition events. Cylinder pressure-based knock detection was the primary method for determining the occurrence and location of knock but was also used for implementing the ignition control scheme for controlled end gas auto-ignition. The combustion intensity metric (CIM) enabled parametric ignition timing control which allowed for the creation of a relationship between fractional heat release due to auto-ignition and CIM. Many stationary and heavy-duty on-road natural gas fueled engines today operate under stoichiometric conditions with a three-way catalyst. The disadvantage of stoichiometric natural gas engines compared to lean-burn natural gas and diesel engines is lower efficiency, resulting primarily from lower power density and compression ratio. Exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) coupled with advanced combustion controls can enable operation with higher compression ratio and power density, which yields higher efficiency. This also results in engine operation between the limits of knock and misfire. Operation between these limits has been named controlled end gas auto-ignition (C-EGAI) and can be used to improve the brake efficiency of the engine. Various methods of cylinder pressure-based knock quantification were explored to implement C-EGAI. The indicated quantification methods are used for the implementation of a control scheme for C-EGAI with a relation to the fractional heat release due to auto-ignition. A custom EGR system was built and the effect of EGR on the performance of a stochiometric, spark ignited, natural gas engine is evaluated. C-EGAI is implemented and the optimal parameters are determined for peak performance under EGR and C-EGAI conditions. In this study, knock detection is used for the recognition, magnitude, and location of the auto-ignition events. Cylinder pressure-based knock detection was the primary method for determining the occurrence and location of knock but was also used for implementing the ignition control scheme for controlled end gas auto-ignition. The combustion intensity metric (CIM) enabled parametric ignition timing control which allowed for the creation of a relationship between fractional heat release due to auto-ignition and CIM. Both exhaust gas recirculation and controlled end gas auto-ignition were analyzed with a cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine modified for boosted fuel/air intake. The data was interpreted to provide a proper evaluation of unique analytical methods to quantify the results of C_EGAI and characterize the live auto-ignition events. The control variables for this method of C-EGAI were optimized with EGR conditions to generate the point of peak performance on the CFR engine under stoichiometric, spark ignited, natural gas conditions.

Bayliff, Scott Michael↗
DOE OSTI2020

Streamlining Energy Sprawl: Assessment of Geothermal Impacts on Public Lands

Renewable energy power generation, including geothermal, solar photovoltaics (PV), and wind, can have significant land use impacts depending on the technology and the size of the facility. At the same time, innovations across these renewable technologies are working to improve plant efficiency per acre of disturbance. Through a survey of satellite imagery and other sources, this analysis reevaluates the impact of geothermal power generation and examines the variations in land use for different geothermal technologies (binary, flash, and dry steam). Geothermal operations on Bureau of Land Management (BLM) sites serve as the focus for this analysis - i.e., only active sites with federal mineral ownership for which the BLM receives royalties from power production. The results show significant variation in direct land disturbance across the operations sites and across these three geothermal technologies. Although there is variation across plants within the same geothermal technology category, dry steam plants (The Geysers) were shown to have the lowest impact, in acres per megawatt capacity and acres per gigawatt-hour generation, followed by flash steam and binary plants. Overall, direct land impacts relative to capacity and generation have declined 16-27% for facilities constructed since 2000 as compared to those constructed prior, even though most new facilities are binary plants (which traditionally had higher land disturbance). Additionally, capacity factors based on actual net production data were found to average only 50% across all operations sites, suggesting that previous estimates based on nameplate capacity only may lead to an undercounting of generation-based land disturbance metrics. Should the geothermal industry capture additional market share, improving land disturbance metrics through accurate net production and capacity data and further minimizing impacts will be increasingly important as competition over land use intensifies.

GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Relevant capture cross sections for intentional nuclear forensics, table summary

This summary provides a brief list of capture cross section metrics for naturally occurring isotopes for review by the Intentional Forensics Venture. This introduction is a companion to the column tabulated data, available in pdf and spreadsheet form. Cross section values for this summary list are taken from ENDF/B-VIII.0 and the development library for ENDF/B-VIII.1, with abundances taken from Nuclear Wallet Cards abundance tables. The cross section metrics are thermal cross section, resonance integral (RI), Maxwellian averaged cross section at 30 keV, and 252 Cf spontaneous fission spectrum averaged cross section. The isotopes are listed in order of Z, then A, with the elemental symbol also reported. This memo gives a brief introduction and overview of the data presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Effect of Spectral Resolution of Light Sources on Photopic and a-opic Quantities

There is a growing interest in including light source spectrum in advanced lighting software tools and simulations. Given that traditional lighting software tools have been used primarily for calculating photometric quantities, their simplifying assumptions may not be suitable for calculating other a-opic quantities. Commonly used simulation tools use three values to represent the three primary colors (red, green, and blue), but others have expanded the number of bands (i.e., the spectral resolution) to 9, 27, or 81 in an attempt to more accurately represent variations in light source spectrum and downstream spectrally-derived quantities. It remains unclear, however, to what extent spectral resolution affects calculated quantities. To address this gap, a numerical analysis was completed using a large spectral power distribution database (n = 1,302 light sources). Calculated illuminance, a-opic irradiance, luminous efficacy of radiation (LER), melanopic efficacy of radiation (MER), and melanopic to photopic (M/P) ratio were compared for spectral resolutions of 3 and 9 bands compared to a baseline of 81 bands. Across all examined lighting quantities, considerable errors—a mean absolute percent error of 18.4%—were found when using 3 band calculations. These were reduced to 4% for 9 band calculations. The errors varied by metric and light source type. The results suggest that the use of 9 bands can more accurately characterize performance of different light source types across a range of metrics compared to using 3 bands.

Abboushi, Belal K.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Probabilistic Day-Ahead Forecasting Using an Analog Ensemble Approach for Wind Farm Grid Services

Wind resource assessment and wind power forecasting are used in research and industry to anticipate future power output at scales ranging from individual wind turbines to entire wind farms. Probabilistic day-ahead wind forecasting is useful for anticipating how a wind farm could potentially participate in the day-ahead market by providing upper and lower bounds for expected power generation, thus informing grid operators of its uncertainty. Understanding this uncertainty is part of a larger project focused on building a platform that combines efforts in weather forecasting, aerodynamic and economic modeling to create maximum value of a wind plant to better provide services to the grid. This effort is also known as the Atmosphere to Electrons to Grid (A2E2G) project. One method for producing a probabilistic forecast is through the analog ensemble approach (Delle Monache et al., 2011). This method leverages historical forecasts and their corresponding observations as a training data set from which future forecasts can be made. For some future forecast, the most similar historical forecasts (analogs) are identified on a regular time basis such as once per a 3-hour window. The most similar analogs, based on a metric such as root mean square error (RMSE), are recorded and their corresponding verifying observations are used as an ensemble member for this future forecast. Prior work in this area demonstrates improvements over raw Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts and shows skill similar to techniques such as logistic regression and machine learning (Delle Monache et al., 2013; Alessandrini et al., 2015). Here, we take the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR) day-ahead forecast (0-36 hours) to create a probabilistic day-ahead forecast using an analog ensemble approach. The HRRR has an hourly temporal resolution, with a spatial resolution of 3 km. The 12 UTC HRRR model run is downloaded every day for one year from August 2019 - July 2020, with the first 11 months serving as a bank of analogs from which the forecasting algorithm can create a probabilistic forecast. Once downloaded, the original HRRR forecast is temporally interpolated to 5-minutes, aligning with both the temporal resolution of the observations as well as the timescale relevant for day-ahead power forecasts. The forecast is validated at the M2 tower at the Flatirons Campus of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at a typical wind turbine height of 80 m. Variables such as wind speed, wind direction, and turbulence intensity are incorporated into the probabilistic forecast model and weighted according to their relative importance to the forecast. Based on metrics such as mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error, the analog ensemble forecast outperforms the raw HRRR forecast during the testing period of July 2020. Figure 1 illustrates an example day-ahead forecast compared against the verifying observations. The general variability and ramps are captured throughout the day, with potential to further improve the analog ensemble model through machine learning techniques.

numerical weather prediction↗
DOE OSTI2020

Safeguards Modeling for Advanced Nuclear Facility Design.

Future nuclear fuel cycle facilities will see a significant benefit from considering materials accountancy requirements early in the design process. The Material Protection, Accounting, and Control Technologies (MPACT) working group is demonstrating Safeguards and Security by Design (SSBD) for a notional electrochemical reprocessing facility as part of a 2020 Milestone. The idea behind SSBD is to consider regulatory requirements early in the design process to provide more optimized systems and avoid costly retrofits later in the design process. Safeguards modeling, using single analyst tools, allows the designer to efficiently consider materials accountancy approaches that meet regulatory requirements. However, safeguards modeling also allows the facility designer to go beyond current regulations and work toward accountancy designs with rapid response and lower thresholds for detection of anomalies. This type of modeling enables new safeguards approaches and may inform future regulatory changes. The Separation and Safeguards Performance Model (SSPM) has been used for materials accountancy system design and analysis. This paper steps through the process of designing a Material Control and Accountancy (MC&A) system, presents the baseline system design for an electrochemical reprocessing facility, and provides performance metrics from the modeling analysis. The most critical measurements in the electrochemical facility are the spent fuel input, electrorefiner salt, and U/TRU product output measurements. Finally, material loss scenario analysis found that measurement uncertainties (relative standard deviations) for Pu would need to be at 1% (random and systematic error components) or better in order to meet domestic detection goals or as high as 3% in order to meet international detection goals, based on a 100 metric ton per year plant size.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗