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At least 1,423 records · Page 79
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2011

Potential of high-Z contrast agents in clinical contrast-enhanced computed tomography

Purpose: Currently, only iodine- and barium-based contrast media (CM) are used in clinical contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT). High-Z metals would produce a higher contrast at equal mass density for the x-ray spectra used in clinical CT. Using such materials might allow for significant dose reductions in CE-CT. The purpose of this study was to quantify the potential for dose reduction when using CM based on heavy metals. Methods: The contrast-to-noise ratio weighted by dose (CNRD) was determined as a function of scan protocol by means of measurements and simulations on a clinical CT scanner. For simulations, water cylinders with diameters 160, 320, 480, and 640 mm were used to cover a broad range of patient sizes. Measurements were conducted with 160 and 320 mm water-equivalent plastic cylinders. A central bore of 13 mm diameter was present in all phantoms. The tube voltage was varied from 80 to 140 kV for measurements and from 60 to 180 kV for simulations. Additional tin filtration of thicknesses 0.4, 0.8, and 1.2 mm was applied in the simulation to evaluate a range of spectral hardness. The bore was filled with a mixture of water and 10 mg/ml of pure iodine, holmium, gadolinium, ytterbium, osmium, tungsten, gold, and bismuth for the simulations and with aqueous solutions of ytterbium, tungsten, gold, and bismuth salts as well as Iopromid containing 10 mg/ml of the pure materials for the measurements. CNRDs were compared to iodine at phantom size-dependent reference voltages for all high-Z materials and the resulting dose reduction was calculated for equal contrast-to-noise ratio. Results: Dose reduction potentials strongly depended on phantom size, spectral hardness, and tube voltage. Depending on the added filtration, a dose reduction of 19%-60% could be reached at 80 kV with gadolinium for the 160 mm phantom, 52%-69% at 100 kV with holmium for the 320 mm phantom, 62%-78% with 120 kV for hafnium and the 480 mm phantom and 74%-86% with 140 kV for gold and the 640 mm phantom. While gadolinium might be considered at 160 mm diameter, hafnium showed the best overall performance for phantom sizes of 320 mm and above. The measurements conducted on the clinical CT scanner showed very good agreement with simulations with deviations in the order of 5 to 10%. Conclusions: The results of this study encourage the development and use of CM based on high-Z materials, especially for adipose patients, where high tube voltages are necessary to reach sufficiently short scan times. Hafnium proved to be the best compromise for average-size and for adipose patients. Even higher-Z materials such as gold and bismuth showed a good overall performance in conjunction with high tube voltage, large patients or strong added filtration and may be recommended for scans under these conditions.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of the effects of passive pre-chamber nozzle pattern and ignition system on engine performance and emissions

The impact of passive pre-chamber (PC) internal volume, nozzle hole pattern (i.e. with and without a central axial nozzle), and PC igniter plug type on performance and emissions was investigated in an optically accessible, single-cylinder, gasoline research engine. The two PC igniter plugs investigated were a conventional inductive coil spark plug and a nanosecond repetitively pulsed (NRP) plasma discharge system previously demonstrated to accelerate early flame propagation. The baseline PC design featured a funnel shaped internal volume with a PC tip that contained six radial nozzles and a larger central axial nozzle. Two additional PC tip geometries were evaluated where either the baseline internal volume was increased or the axial nozzle was removed and the radial nozzle diameters were increased. A sweep of charge equivalence ratios ( ϕ) from nearly stoichiometric to the lean limit was performed for a fixed engine speed (1300 revolutions per minute), and engine load (3.5 bar gross indicated mean effective pressure). Time-resolved PC and main chamber (MC) pressure data as well as MC emissions data were collected to analyze engine performance and emissions characteristics. Combustion in the MC was further investigated using high-speed excited methylidyne radical (CH*) chemiluminescence imaging. Collected results highlighted that while all PC tips and ignition systems exhibited similar performance and emissions down to ϕ = 0.8, relevant differences in thermal efficiency and emissions for leaner charge mixtures were observed, with the results highly dependent on the nozzle pattern and ignition system. Major deviations were correlated to preferential de-pressurization of the PC through the axial nozzle for lean conditions that was not observed for mixture conditions closer to stoichiometric. Results show that a combination of radial and axial nozzle patterns in the PC extended lean-stability limits at the low-load condition evaluated. Further benefits were observed with the use of NRP ignition systems due to faster combustion within the PC volume provided that the volume was sufficiently large.

Di Sabatino, Francesco↗
DOE OSTI2019

Measurement of the ionization yield from nuclear recoils in liquid xenon between 0.3 -- 6 keV with single-ionization-electron sensitivity

Dual-phase xenon TPC detectors are a highly scalable and widely used technology to search for low-energy nuclear recoil signals from WIMP dark matter or coherent nuclear scattering of ~MeV neutrinos. Such experiments expect to measure O(keV) ionization or scintillation signals from such sources. However, at ~ 1 keV and below, the signal calibrations in liquid xenon carry large uncertainties that directly impact the assumed sensitivity of existing and future experiments. In this work, we report a new measurement of the ionization yield of nuclear recoil signals in liquid xenon down to 0.3 keV – the lowest energy calibration reported to date – at which energy the average event produces just 1.1 ionized electrons. Between 2 and 6 keV, our measurements agree with existing measurements, but significantly improve the precision. At lower energies, we observe a decreasing trend that deviates from simple extrapolations of existing data. We also study the dependence of ionization yield on the applied drift field in liquid xenon between 220V/cm and 6240V/cm, allowing these measurements to apply to a broad range of current and proposed experiments with different operating parameters

Dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparative studies of 2HDMs under the Higgs boson precision measurements

We perform comparative studies for four types of the two Higgs Doublet Models (2HDMs) under the precision measurements of the Standard Model (SM) Higgs observables at the proposed Higgs factories. We explore the discovery potential based on the hypothetical deviations in the precision data for the 2HDMs up to one-loop level. We find 5σ observability from the χ2 fitting in a significant theory parameter space at future Higgs factories. For the Type-I 2HDM, regions with cos(β - α) ≲ -0.1 or cos(β - α) ≳ 0.08 are discoverable at more than 5σ level. For the other three types of 2HDMs, the 5σ region is even bigger: | cos(β - α)| ≳ 0.02 for tan β ~ 1. At small and large values of tan β, the region in cos(β - α) is further tightened. We examine the extent to which the different 2HDM theories may be distinguishable from one to the other at the 95% Confidence Level with four benchmark points as case studies. We show that a large part of the parameter space of the other types of 2HDMs can be distinguished from the benchmark points of the target model. The impacts of loop corrections are found to be significant in certain parameter regions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mixed Tin-Titanium Oxides by Atomic Layer Deposition on Planar Substrates: Physical and Electronic Structure

Ternary atomic layer deposition of Sn-doped TiO x (Sn:TiO x ) and Ti-doped SnO x (Ti:SnO x ) was performed using tetrakisdimethylamidotitanium (IV) and tin(IV) with water at 150 °C on (1 0 0) Si and quartz substrates. The physical structure of the films was investigated using scanning electron, atomic force, and Kelvin probe force microscopies as well as spectroscopic ellipsometry, Raman spectroscopy, and X-ray diffraction. All as-deposited films are amorphous and possessed flat and conformal topographies with low surface roughness (<1 nm). Annealed Sn:TiO x and Ti:SnO x crystallize into the tetragonal anatase TiO 2 and cassiterite SnO 2 structures, respectively, without large variations to the film topography. The chemical composition of the as-deposited and annealed films was investigated through X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. While dopants are homogenously mixed, the ternary ALD to form Sn:TiO x and Ti:SnO x surprisingly does not follow the rule of mixtures, despite similarities in both the growth rates of binary SnO x and TiO x and the precursors used. This finding is also supported by spectroscopic ellipsometry. Here, we postulate the deviation from the rule of mixtures is due to non-ideal surface chemistry of the binary ALD of SnO x . The optical bandgap of all films was quantified by the Tauc analysis and the valence band position was investigated by valence band X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. Intra-bandgap states above the valence band maximum were observed for as-deposited Ti:SnO x and Sn:TiO x and ascribed to 5 s states from Sn 2+ ions. The presence of these intra-bandgap states induces enhanced visible absorption and bathochromic shifts to the apparent bandgap for all as-deposited films. Annealing the films removes the intra-bandgap states and increases the optical bandgap. Simplified band diagrams created using the data available demonstrated that the conduction and valence band positions did not vary between the positions of pure TiO 2 or SnO 2 with monotonic increases to the dopant incorporation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Crystal chemistry of the orthorhombic Ln{sub 2}TiO{sub 5} compounds with Ln=La, Pr, Nd, Sm, Gd, Tb and Dy

The crystal structures of seven samples of orthorhombic (Pnma) Ln{sub 2}TiO{sub 5} compounds with Ln=La, Pr, Nd, Sm, Gd, Tb and Dy were refined by Rietveld analysis of synchrotron X-ray powder diffraction (S-XRD) data. With increasing size of the lanthanide cation, the lattice parameters increase systematically: c by only ~1.5% whereas both a and b by ~6% from Dy{sub 2}TiO{sub 5} to La{sub 2}TiO{sub 5}. The mean Ti–O bond length only increases by ~1% with increasing radius of the Ln cation from Gd to La, primarily due to expansion of the pair of Ti–O{sub 3} bonds to opposite corners of the Ti–O{sub 5} square based pyramid polyhedra. For Dy{sub 2}TiO{sub 5} and Tb{sub 2}TiO{sub 5}, a significant variation in Ti–O{sub 1} and Ti–O{sub 4} bond lengths results in an increased deformation of the Ti–O{sub 5} base. The particular configuration consists of large rhombic shaped tunnels and smaller triangular tunnels along the b axis, which have implications for defect formation and migration caused by radiation damage or the ionic conductivity. - Graphical abstract: Figure: The crystallographic study of a systematic series of compounds with nominal stoichiometry Ln{sub 2}TiO{sub 5} (with Ln representing La, Pr, Nd, Sm, Gd, Tb and Dy) and orthorhombic, Pnma, symmetry shows changes in cell parameters which fit a linear trend. However, bond lengths are shown to deviate from trend with compounds containing the smaller, heavier lanthanides. - Highlights: • First fabrication and crystallographic refinement of compound Pr{sub 2}TiO{sub 5}. • First systematic study of the crystallography, using S-XRD, for Ln{sub 2}TiO{sub 5} series. • Cation to anion bonding trends and valence states are investigated. • The densities and band-gaps of the series are experimentally determined.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Microstructure and mechanical properties of a Ti-microalloyed low-carbon stainless steel treated by quenching-partitioning-tempering process

Quenching-partitioning-tempering (Q-P-T) process was used to treat a Ti-microalloyed low-carbon stainless steel after cold rolling. In addition to martensite, ferrite and retained austenite, TiN, coarse TiC, fine TiC, (Fe,Cr){sub 3}C and ultra-fine TiC precipitates were formed after the Q-P-T treatment. Based on field emission-scanning electron microscope (FESEM) and transmission electron microscope (TEM) observations, thermodynamic, crystallographic and statistical analyses were used to reveal the precipitation behaviors of these particles. The effects of partitioning-tempering (P-T) temperature and time on the microstructure and mechanical properties of Q-P-T treated specimens were specially studied. The coarsening and spheroidization of (Fe,Cr){sub 3}C particles during P-T stage were obviously retarded by large Cr addition. The retained austenite was obtained significantly with appropriate P-T parameters. The precipitation of ultra-fine TiC particles in the martensite during the P-T stage at 500 °C induced a secondary hardening. - Highlights: • Some fine TiC with 30–70 nm precipitated in austenite during partial austenization. • A part of fine TiC had K-S OR with martensite after Q-P-T treatment. • A part of fine TiC had a OR specially deviating from K-S OR with martensite. • Coarsening and spheroidization of (Fe,Cr){sub 3}C were retarded during P-T stage. • Ultra-fine TiC with < 10 nm precipitated in martensite during P-T stage at 500 °C.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Molecular orbitals for properties and spectroscopies

The description and clarification of spectroscopies and properties goes through ab initio calculations. Wave function based calculations (CASSCF/CASPT2) are particularly appealing since they offer spectroscopic accuracy and means of interpretation. we performed such calculations to elucidate the origin of unusual structural changes and intramolecular electron transfer phenomenon. Based on optimized molecular orbitals and a reading of the multireference wave function, it is suggested that intimate interactions are likely to considerably modify the standard pictures. A so-called PIMA (polarization-induced metalâĹŠarene) interaction similar to the more familiar anion-π interaction is responsible for a significant deviation from sp{sup 3} geometry and an energetic stabilization of 50 kJ/mol in Cr(II) benzyl organometallic complexes. In a similar fashion, it is proposed that the energetic profile of the IVCT (inter valence charge transfer) exhibits strong similarities to the Marcus’ theory, suggesting a response behaviour of the ensemble of electrons as electron transfer occurs in Fe{sup 2+}/Fe{sup 3+} bimetallic compound. The electronic reorganization induced by the IVCT process accounts for 11.8 eV, a very large effect that reduces the transfer energy down to 0.89 eV, in very good agreement with experiments.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Constraints on Large-Scale White Noise in the Cosmic Density Field

We present observational constraints on large-scale white noise (LSWN) in the cosmic density field, a phenomenon predicted to arise from non-linear mode coupling during cosmological evolution. Building on the theoretical framework of Paper I, where we demonstrated that non-linearities inevitably redistribute power from small to large scales through mode mixing, we confront these predictions with current cosmological data. We modify the CLASS Boltzmann code to incorporate a white noise component $k_\mathrm{BH}/k$ in the primordial power spectrum and perform parameter estimation using current cosmological data. The non-detection of excess power on the largest observable scales places stringent upper bounds: $k_\mathrm{BH} \leq 1.80 \times 10^{-13}~\mathrm{Mpc}^{-1}$ at 99% confidence. These constraints imply the primordial power spectrum must deviate from perfect scale invariance on small scales, either through a cutoff at $k_{\mathrm{cut}} \lesssim 3~\mathrm{pc}^{-1}$ or through running of the spectral index with $α_s \lesssim -0.015$. Our results demonstrate that LSWN provides a powerful probe of the primordial spectrum at scales orders of magnitude smaller than directly observable, offering unique constraints on early-universe physics.

Barenboim, Gabriela [Valencia U., IFIC; Valencia U↗
DOE OSTI2018

Influence of Morphological Defects on Thermophysical Properties of γ-Gd{sub 2}S{sub 3}

The temperature dependences of the heat capacity (C{sub p}) and the thermal conductivity (κ) in the temperature range from 300 to 773 K of polycrystalline gadolinium sulfide samples (γ-GdS{sub y}) with the deviation of the composition from the integer stoichiometric were studied. It was found that the thermal conductivity of gadolinium sulfides decreases monotonically and reaches 0.74 W/(m K) at T = 773 K for the composition y = 1.479, which is much lower than for the known single-crystal samples. The influence of morphological defects (boundaries of crystallites and dislocations) on the intensity of scattering of phonons is studied. It has been established that ceramic samples of gadolinium sulphides have a large heat capacity and a lower thermal conductivity, in comparison with monocrystalline samples of the same composition.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2018

Large-eddy Simulations of Spray Variability Effects on Flow Variability in a Direct-injection Spark-ignition Engine Under Non-combusting Operating Conditions

Large-eddy Simulations (LES) have been carried out to investigate spray variability and its effect on cycle-to-cycle flow variability in a direct-injection spark-ignition (DISI) engine under non-reacting conditions. Initial simulations were performed of an injector in a constant volume spray chamber to validate the simulation spray set-up. Comparisons showed good agreement in global spray measures such as the penetration. Local mixing data and shot-to-shot variability were also compared using Rayleigh-scattering images and probability contours. The simulations were found to reasonably match the local mixing data and shot-to-shot variability using a random-seed perturbation methodology. After validation, the same spray set-up with only minor changes was used to simulate the same injector in an optically accessible DISI engine. Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements were used to quantify the flow velocity in a horizontal plane intersecting the spark plug gap. The engine was operated in a skip-fired operating mode and comparisons focused on cycles that included fuel injection, but no spark event and therefore no combustion. 105 total LES engine cycles were simulated using a parallel cycle simulation approach and 3 different perturbation methods in an attempt to isolate the effects of shot-to-shot spray variability and the initial turbulent flow field as well as their interaction effects on overall engine CCVs. The experimental mean and standard deviations were reasonably well matched by the simulations, though quantitative comparisons near the injection event during the intake stroke were difficult due to the high uncertainty in the PIV measurements at these crank angles. The 3 simulation perturbation methods resulted in very similar results, though further analysis found the current parallel cycle approach may be limiting the ability of the simulations to isolate the spray and flow effects.

Cycle-to-cycle Variability↗
DOE OSTI2014

Uncertainty quantification of CO₂ saturation estimated from electrical resistance tomography data at the Cranfield site

A parametric bootstrap approach is presented for uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CO₂ saturation derived from electrical resistance tomography (ERT) data collected at the Cranfield, Mississippi (USA) carbon sequestration site. There are many sources of uncertainty in ERT-derived CO₂ saturation, but we focus on how the ERT observation errors propagate to the estimated CO₂ saturation in a nonlinear inversion process. Our UQ approach consists of three steps. We first estimated the observational errors from a large number of reciprocal ERT measurements. The second step was to invert the pre-injection baseline data and the resulting resistivity tomograph was used as the prior information for nonlinear inversion of time-lapse data. We assigned a 3% random noise to the baseline model. Finally, we used a parametric bootstrap method to obtain bootstrap CO₂ saturation samples by deterministically solving a nonlinear inverse problem many times with resampled data and resampled baseline models. Then the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation were calculated from the bootstrap samples. We found that the maximum standard deviation of CO₂ saturation was around 6% with a corresponding maximum saturation of 30% for a data set collected 100 days after injection began. There was no apparent spatial correlation between the mean and standard deviation of CO₂ saturation but the standard deviation values increased with time as the saturation increased. The uncertainty in CO₂ saturation also depends on the ERT reciprocal error threshold used to identify and remove noisy data and inversion constraints such as temporal roughness. Five hundred realizations requiring 3.5 h on a single 12-core node were needed for the nonlinear Monte Carlo inversion to arrive at stationary variances while the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) stochastic inverse approach may expend days for a global search. This indicates that UQ of 2D or 3D ERT inverse problems can be performed on a laptop or desktop PC.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Measurement of matter–antimatter differences in beauty baryon decays

Differences in the behaviour of matter and antimatter have been observed in K and B meson decays, but not yet in any baryon decay. Such differences are associated with the non-invariance of fundamental interactions under the combined charge-conjugation and parity transformations, known as CP violation. Here, using data from the LHCb experiment at the Large Hadron Collider, we search for CP-violating asymmetries in the decay angle distributions of Λ$^0_b$ baryons decaying to pπ - π + π - and pπ - K + K - final states. These four-body hadronic decays are a promising place to search for sources of CP violation both within and beyond the standard model of particle physics. We find evidence for CP violation in Λ$^0_b$ to pπ - π + π - decays with a statistical significance corresponding to 3.3 standard deviations including systematic uncertainties. This represents the first evidence for CP violation in the baryon sector.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Low-index mesoscopic surface reconstructions of Au surfaces using Bayesian force fields

Metal surfaces have long been known to reconstruct, significantly influencing their structural and catalytic properties. Many key mechanistic aspects of these subtle transformations remain poorly understood due to limitations of previous simulation approaches. Using active learning of Bayesian machine-learned force fields trained from ab initio calculations, we enable large-scale molecular dynamics simulations to describe the thermodynamics and time evolution of the low-index mesoscopic surface reconstructions of Au (e.g., the Au(111)-‘Herringbone,’ Au(110)-(1 × 2)-‘Missing-Row,’ and Au(100)-‘Quasi-Hexagonal’ reconstructions). This capability yields direct atomistic understanding of the dynamic emergence of these surface states from their initial facets, providing previously inaccessible information such as nucleation kinetics and a complete mechanistic interpretation of reconstruction under the effects of strain and local deviations from the original stoichiometry. We successfully reproduce previous experimental observations of reconstructions on pristine surfaces and provide quantitative predictions of the emergence of spinodal decomposition and localized reconstruction in response to strain at non-ideal stoichiometries. A unified mechanistic explanation is presented of the kinetic and thermodynamic factors driving surface reconstruction. Furthermore, we study surface reconstructions on Au nanoparticles, where characteristic (111) and (100) reconstructions spontaneously appear on a variety of high-symmetry particle morphologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization-Based Fast-Frequency Estimation and Control of Low-Inertia Microgrids

The lack of inertial response from non-synchronous, inverter-based generation in microgrids makes the power system vulnerable to a large rate of change of frequency (ROCOF) and frequency excursions. Energy storage systems (ESSs) can be utilized to provide fast-frequency support to prevent such large excursions in the system. However, fast-frequency support is a power-intensive application that has a significant impact on the ESS lifetime. In this paper, a framework that allows the ESS operator to provide fast-frequency support as a service is proposed. The framework maintains the desired quality-of-service (limiting the ROCOF and frequency) while taking into account the ESS lifetime and physical limits. The framework utilizes moving horizon estimation (MHE) to estimate the frequency deviation and ROCOF from noisy phase-locked loop (PLL) measurements. These estimates are employed by a model predictive control (MPC) algorithm that computes control actions by solving a finite-horizon, online optimization problem. Additionally, this approach avoids oscillatory behavior induced by delays that are common when using low-pass filters as with traditional derivative-based (virtual inertia) controllers. MATLAB/Simulink simulations on a test system from Cordova, Alaska, show the effectiveness of the MHE-MPC approach to reduce frequency deviations and ROCOF of a low-inertia microgrid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Capturing plume behavior in complex terrain: an overview of the Nevada National Security Site Meteorological Experiment (METEX21)

METEX21 was an atmospheric tracer release experiment executed at the Department of Energy’s Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) in the southwestern U.S to study terrain-induced wind and thermodynamic conditions that influence local-scale (<5-km) plume transport under varying atmospheric forcing conditions. Meteorological observations were collected using 10-m tall meteorological towers, 2-m tall tripods with 3-d sonic anemometers, a 3-m tall eddy covariance flux tower, Doppler profiling lidars, Doppler scanning lidars, weather-balloon launched radiosondes, and a tethered balloon equipped with wind, temperature, and aerosol sensors at heights up to 800 m. A smoke tracer was released along three transects in the horizontal and vertical directions and observed with video cameras, aerosol sensors and lidars (via aerosol backscatter). The observations showed evidence of large-scale/synoptic transience as well as local-scale upslope and downslope flows, along-axis valley flows, recirculation eddies on leeward slopes, and periods of strong shear and veer aloft. The release days were classified as either synoptically-driven or locally-driven, and a single case day is presented in detail for each. Synoptically-forced days show relatively narrow smoke plumes traveling down the valley from north to south (with the predominant wind direction), with little deviation in transport direction regardless of the elevation or ground locations of the smoke releases, except near the presence of leeside recirculation eddies. Locally-forced days exhibit a wider range of plume behavior due to the combination of thermally-induced valley and slope flows, which are often flowing in different cardinal directions, and wind shear found aloft at higher altitudes and elevations. We saw evidence of smoke lofting on top of the mesas due to strong upslope flows on these days. A major finding of this experiment was the effectiveness of scanning lidars to measure 2-dimensional plume transport out to a 2–3 km distance; much farther than could be visibly observed. METEX21 was the first of three planned tracer experiments at NNSS, and future experiments will incorporate multiple tracers to improve individual plume identification so that finer resolution flow details can be attained from these measurements, as well as deploy a larger suite of meteorological instrumentation, including more temperature profiling data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing boundary condition and parametric uncertainty in numerical-weather-prediction-modeled, long-term offshore wind speed through machine learning and analog ensemble

To accurately plan and manage wind power plants, not only does the time-varying wind resource at the site of interest need to be assessed but also the uncertainty connected to this estimate. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models at the mesoscale represent a valuable way to characterize the wind resource offshore, given the challenges connected with measuring hub-height wind speed. The boundary condition and parametric uncertainty associated with modeled wind speed is often estimated by running a model ensemble. However, creating an NWP ensemble of long-term wind resource data over a large region represents a computational challenge. Here, we propose two approaches to temporally extrapolate wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty using a more convenient setup in which a mesoscale ensemble is run over a short-term period (1 year), and only a single model covers the desired long-term period (20 year). We quantify hub-height wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty from the short-term model ensemble as its normalized across-ensemble standard deviation. Then, we develop and apply a gradient-boosting model and an analog ensemble approach to temporally extrapolate such uncertainty to the full 20-year period, for which only a single model run is available. As a test case, we consider offshore wind resource characterization in the California Outer Continental Shelf. Both of the proposed approaches provide accurate estimates of the long-term wind speed boundary condition and parametric uncertainty across the region (R 2 >0.75), with the gradient-boosting model slightly outperforming the analog ensemble in terms of bias and centered root-mean-square error. At the three offshore wind energy lease areas in the region, we find a long-term median hourly uncertainty between 10 % and 14 % of the mean hub-height wind speed values. Finally, we assess the physical variability in the uncertainty estimates. In general, we find that the wind speed uncertainty increases closer to land. Also, neutral conditions have smaller uncertainty than the stable and unstable cases, and the modeled wind speed in winter has less boundary condition and parametric sensitivity than summer.

17 WIND ENERGY↗