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DOE OSTI2011

The Role of MukE in Assembling a Functional MukBEF Complex

The MukB-MukE-MukF protein complex is essential for chromosome condensation and segregation in Escherichia coli. The central component of this complex, the MukB protein, is related functionally and structurally to the ubiquitous SMC (structural maintenance of chromosomes) proteins. In a manner similar to SMC, MukB requires the association of two accessory proteins (MukE and MukF) for its function. MukF is a constitutive dimer that bridges the interaction between MukB and MukE. While MukB can condense DNA on its own, it requires MukF and MukE to ensure proper chromosome segregation. Here, we present a novel structure of the E. coli MukE-MukF complex, in which the intricate crystal packing interactions reveal an alternative MukE dimerization interface spanning both N- and C-terminal winged-helix domains of the protein. The structure also unveils additional cross-linking interactions between adjacent MukE-MukF complexes mediated by MukE. A variant of MukE encompassing point mutations on one of these surfaces does not affect assembly of the MukB-MukE-MukF complex and yet cannot restore the temperature sensitivity of the mukE::kan strain, suggesting that this surface may mediate critical protein-protein interactions between MukB-MukE-MukF complexes. Since the dimerization interface of MukE overlaps with the region of the protein that interacts with MukB in the MukB-MukE-MukF complex, we suggest that competing MukB-MukE and MukE-MukE interactions may regulate the formation of higher-order structures of bacterial condensin.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

Using Coupled Models to Study the Effects of River Discharge on Biogeochemical Cycling and Hypoxia in the Northern Gulf of Mexico

We describe emerging capabilities to understand physical processes and biogeoehemical cycles in coastal waters through the use of satellites, numerical models, and ship observations. Emerging capabilities provide significantly improved ability to model ecological systems and the impact of environmental management actions on them. The complex interaction of physical and biogeoehemical processes responsible for hypoxic events requires an integrated approach to research, monitoring, and modeling in order to fully define the processes leading to hypoxia. Our efforts characterizes the carbon cycle associated with river plumes and the export of organic matter and nutrients form coastal Louisiana wetlands and embayments in a spatially and temporally intensive manner previously not possible. Riverine nutrients clearly affect ecosystems in the northern Gulf of Mexico as evidenced in the occurrence of regional hypoxia events. Less known and largely unqualified is the export of organic matter and nutrients from the large areas of disappearing coastal wetlands and large embayments adjacent to the Louisiana Continental Shelf. This project provides new methods to track the river plume along the shelf and to estimate the rate of export of suspended inorganic and organic paniculate matter and dissolved organic matter form coastal habitats of south Louisiana.

COUPLED MODEL↗

DOE OSTI2012

Composite low affinity interactions dictate recognition of the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor Sic1 by the SCF[superscript Cdc4] ubiquitin ligase

The ubiquitin ligase SCF{sup Cdc4} (Skp1/Cul1/F-box protein) recognizes its substrate, the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor Sic1, in a multisite phosphorylation-dependent manner. Although short diphosphorylated peptides derived from Sic1 can bind to Cdc4 with high affinity, through systematic mutagenesis and quantitative biophysical analysis we show that individually weak, dispersed Sic1 phospho sites engage Cdc4 in a dynamic equilibrium. The affinities of individual phosphoepitopes serve to tune the overall phosphorylation site threshold needed for efficient recognition. Notably, phosphoepitope affinity for Cdc4 is dramatically weakened in the context of full-length Sic1, demonstrating the importance of regional environment on binding interactions. The multisite nature of the Sic1-Cdc4 interaction confers cooperative dependence on kinase activity for Sic1 recognition and ubiquitination under equilibrium reaction conditions. Composite dynamic interactions of low affinity sites may be a general mechanism to establish phosphorylation thresholds in biological responses.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

FAR-ULTRAVIOLET OBSERVATIONS OF THE SPICA NEBULA AND THE INTERACTION ZONE

We report the analysis results of far-ultraviolet (FUV) observations, made for a broad region around {alpha} Vir (Spica) including the interaction zone of Loop I and the Local Bubble. The whole region was optically thin and a general correlation was seen between the FUV continuum intensity and the dust extinction, except in the neighborhood of the bright central star, indicating the dust scattering nature of the FUV continuum. We performed Monte Carlo radiative transfer simulations to obtain the optical parameters related to the dust scattering as well as to the geometrical structure of the region. The albedo and asymmetry factor were found to be 0.38 {+-} 0.06 and 0.46 {+-} 0.06, respectively, in good agreement with the Milky Way dust grain models. The distance to and the thickness of the interaction zone were estimated to be 70{sup +4}{sub -8} pc and 40{sup +8}{sub -10} pc, respectively. The diffuse FUV continuum in the northern region above Spica was mostly the result of scattering of the starlight from Spica, while that in the southern region was mainly due to the background stars. The C IV {lambda}{lambda}1548, 1551 emission was found throughout the whole region, in contrast to the Si II* {lambda}1532 emission which was bright only within the H II region. This indicates that the C IV line arises mostly at the shell boundaries of the bubbles, with a larger portion likely from the Loop I than from the Local Bubble side, whereas the Si II* line is from the photoionized Spica Nebula.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Investigation of the Microquasar SS 433 with VERITAS

Microquasars such as SS 433 are considered potential contributors to cosmic rays up to the knee of the cosmic-ray energy spectrum (∼4 PeV), where a transition in the dominant acceleration processes is expected. The SS 433 system, located within the W50 supernova remnant, is a Galactic microquasar with relativistic jets interacting with the surrounding medium over parsec scales, providing an example for studying jet-driven particle acceleration. A deep morphological and spectral study of SS 433 is performed using more than 150 hr of observations with VERITAS, sensitive to γ-ray energies >100 GeV. With an angular resolution better than 0$^°_.$1, extended TeV γ-ray emission is resolved from both the eastern and western jet lobes, located tens of parsecs from the central binary. The emission appears elongated along the jet axis and coincides with regions where the jets interact with the surrounding supernova remnant. No TeV emission is detected from the central binary, nor is significant emission observed between the central binary and the jet lobes. Phase-resolved analyses show no evidence for variability in the orbital or precessional phase, supporting a steady emission scenario. The observed morphology and spectra are consistent with scenarios where particles are accelerated in the lobes of the jets, possibly through shocks or alternative processes such as magnetic reconnection. The extended TeV emission from the jet lobes of SS 433 favors a leptonic origin in the VERITAS energy range, suggesting that any hadronic acceleration is subdominant. The results offer valuable constraints on how microquasar jets may contribute to the Galactic cosmic-ray population toward the knee.

Archer, A. [DePauw University, Greencastle, IN (Un↗

DOE OSTI2024

Specialization Restricts the Evolutionary Paths Available to Yeast Sugar Transporters

Functional innovation at the protein level is a key source of evolutionary novelties. The constraints on functional innovations are likely to be highly specific in different proteins, which are shaped by their unique histories and the extent of global epistasis that arises from their structures and biochemistries. These contextual nuances in the sequence–function relationship have implications both for a basic understanding of the evolutionary process and for engineering proteins with desirable properties. Here, we have investigated the molecular basis of novel function in a model member of an ancient, conserved, and biotechnologically relevant protein family. These Major Facilitator Superfamily sugar porters are a functionally diverse group of proteins that are thought to be highly plastic and evolvable. By dissecting a recent evolutionary innovation in an α-glucoside transporter from the yeast Saccharomyces eubayanus, we show that the ability to transport a novel substrate requires high-order interactions between many protein regions and numerous specific residues proximal to the transport channel. To reconcile the functional diversity of this family with the constrained evolution of this model protein, we generated new, state-of-the-art genome annotations for 332 Saccharomycotina yeast species spanning ~400 My of evolution. By integrating phylogenetic and phenotypic analyses across these species, we show that the model yeast α-glucoside transporters likely evolved from a multifunctional ancestor and became subfunctionalized. The accumulation of additive and epistatic substitutions likely entrenched this subfunction, which made the simultaneous acquisition of multiple interacting substitutions the only reasonably accessible path to novelty.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2011

Interferon-Inducible Protein 16: Insight into the Interaction with Tumor Suppressor p53

IFI16 is a member of the interferon-inducible HIN-200 family of nuclear proteins. It has been implicated in transcriptional regulation by modulating protein-protein interactions with p53 tumor suppressor protein and other transcription factors. However, the mechanisms of interaction remain unknown. Here, we report the crystal structures of both HIN-A and HIN-B domains of IFI16 determined at 2.0 and 2.35 {angstrom} resolution, respectively. Each HIN domain comprises a pair of tightly packed OB-fold subdomains that appear to act as a single unit. We show that both HIN domains of IFI16 are capable of enhancing p53-DNA complex formation and transcriptional activation via distinctive means. HIN-A domain binds to the basic C terminus of p53, whereas the HIN-B domain binds to the core DNA-binding region of p53. Both interactions are compatible with the DNA-bound state of p53 and together contribute to the effect of full-length IFI16 on p53-DNA complex formation and transcriptional activation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-throughput small-angle X-ray scattering reveals effective structure factor transitions linked to high-concentration antibody viscosity

High-concentration monoclonal antibody (mAb) formulations are often constrained by elevated viscosity, largely driven by protein–protein interactions, which complicates manufacturing and limits subcutaneous delivery. Early viscosity risk assessment is essential during discovery, yet traditional measurements require large sample volumes, and lack high-throughput capability. Here, we develop a high-throughput small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) protocol to detect mAb self-association at dilute concentrations, enabling early predictive insights into high-concentration viscosity. Synchrotron SAXS measurements were conducted for 21 mAbs formulated in a histidine buffer at pH 6.0. An initial subset of 10 mAbs analyzed across 1–150 mg/mL revealed that effective structure factor transitions in the low-q region, indicative of interparticle interactions, consistently emerged below 25 mg/mL. Subsequently, 11 additional mAbs were analyzed at 1–25 mg/mL using automated liquid handling and flow cells to enable high-throughput screening. High-viscosity mAbs exhibited detectable low-q upturns at concentrations ≤10 mg/mL, whereas low-viscosity mAbs showed downturns. A classification criterion based on effective structure factor transitions accurately classified all high- and low-viscosity mAbs at 150 mg/mL, offering a scalable, sample-efficient alternative to conventional methods. These results extend recent findings on the concentration-dependent sensitivity of SAXS to short-range attractions, demonstrating that they can emerge at lower concentrations than previously reported. This study presents the most comprehensive and diverse SAXS dataset for mAbs reported to date within a single formulation, providing a valuable resource for developing and validating coarse-grained models that can more accurately capture intermolecular interactions governing high-concentration solution behavior, thereby enabling rational antibody engineering and improved developability.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Overexpression of miR-206 suppresses glycolysis, proliferation and migration in breast cancer cells via PFKFB3 targeting

miRNAs, sorting as non-coding RNAs, are differentially expressed in breast tumor and act as tumor promoters or suppressors. miR-206 could suppress the progression of breast cancer, the mechanism of which remains unclear. The study here was aimed to investigate the effect of miR-206 on human breast cancers. We found that miR-206 was down-regulated while one of its predicted targets, 6-Phosphofructo-2-kinase (PFKFB3) was up-regulated in human breast carcinomas. 17β-estradiol dose-dependently decreased miR-206 expression as well as enhanced PFKFB3 mRNA and protein expression in estrogen receptor α (ERα) positive breast cancer cells. Furthermore, we identified that miR-206 directly interacted with 3′-untranslated region (UTR) of PFKFB3 mRNA. miR-206 modulated PFKFB3 expression in MCF-7, T47D and SUM159 cells, which was influenced by 17β-estradiol depending on ERα expression. In addition, miR-206 overexpression impeded fructose-2,6-bisphosphate (F2,6BP) production, diminished lactate generation and reduced cell proliferation and migration in breast cancer cells. In conclusion, our study demonstrated that miR-206 regulated PFKFB3 expression in breast cancer cells, thereby stunting glycolysis, cell proliferation and migration. - Highlights: • miR-206 was down-regulated and PFKFB3 was up-regulated in human breast carcinomas. • 17β-estradiol regulated miR-206 and PFKFB3 expression in ERα+ cancer cells. • miR-206directly interacted with 3′-UTR of PFKFB3 mRNA. • miR-206 fructose-2,6-bisphosphate (F2,6BP) impeded production and lactate generation. • miR-206 reduced cell proliferation and migration in breast cancer cells.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The N–terminal zinc finger of CELLULOSE SYNTHASE6 is critical in defining its functional properties by determining the level of homodimerization in Arabidopsis

Primary cell wall cellulose is synthesized by the cellulose synthase complex (CSC) containing CELLULOSE SYNTHASE1 (CESA1), CESA3 and one of four CESA6–like proteins in Arabidopsis. It has been proposed that the CESA6–like proteins occupy the same position in the CSC, but their underlying selection mechanism remains unclear. We produced a chimeric CESA5 by replacing its N–terminal zinc finger with its CESA6 counterpart to investigate the consequences for its homodimerization, a crucial step in forming higher–order structures during assembly of the CSC. We found that the mutant phenotypes of prc1–1, a cesa6 null mutant, were rescued by the chimeric CESA5, and became comparable to the wild type (WT) and prc1–1 complemented by WT CESA6 in regard to plant growth, cellulose content, cellulose microfibril organization, CSC dynamics and subcellular localization. Bimolecular fluorescence complementation assays were employed to evaluate pairwise interactions between the N–terminal regions of CESA1, CESA3, CESA5, CESA6 and the chimeric CESA5. We verified that the chimeric CESA5 explicitly interacted with all the other CESA partners, comparable to CESA6, whereas interaction between CESA5 with itself was significantly weaker than that of all other CESA pairs. Furthermore, our findings suggest that the homodimerization of CESA6 through its N–terminal zinc finger is critical in defining its functional properties, and possibly determines its intrinsic roles in facilitating higher–order structures in CSCs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2002

Simulation of the Climate of South-West Asia with a Regional Model

The ability of the regional model RegCM2 to simulate the climate of South-West Asia is examined. The climate of the region displays high spatial, seasonal and interannual variability, providing a strong test of climate model capabilities. RegCM2 captures the spatial variability of temperature and precipitation despite cold biases being present in the model. RegCM2 does not capture the annual cycle of precipitation on the Black and Caspian Sea coasts where very steep topography exists, nor on the eastern Mediterranean coast where the coastal mountains are not resolvable. RegCM2 does capture the seasonal cycle in the Fertile Crescent and Zagros mountains, where it is strongly influenced by a plateau circulation above the Iranian plateau. It is shown that accurate simulation of precipitation in these regions, including the inter-annual variability, requires the correct simulation of both storm tracks and topographic interactions. Through the use of regional climate models the concentration and transport pathways of water vapor through the Middle East can be explored. The results demonstrate that short lived 'events' have little impact on monthly mean atmospheric fields yet provide a significant amount of the precipitated water which flows in the Tigris river.

Evans, J. P.↗

DOE OSTI2012

Hadron spectrum and infrared-finite behavior of QCD running coupling

We study the behavior of the QCD effective coupling α{sub s} in the low-energy region by exploiting the conventional meson spectrum within a relativistic quantum-field model based on analytical confinement of quarks and gluons. The spectra of quark-antiquark and two-gluon bound states are defined by using a master equation similar to the ladder Bethe-Salpeter equation. A new, independent and specific infrared-finite behavior of QCD coupling is found below energy scale ∼1 GeV. Particularly, an infrared-fixed point is extracted at α{sub s}(0) ≅ 0.757 for confinement scale Λ = 345 MeV. We provide a new analytic estimate of the lowest-state glueball mass. As applications, we also estimate masses of some intermediate and heavy mesons as well as the weak-decay constants of light mesons. By introducing only a minimal set of parameters (the quark masses m{sub f} and Λ) we obtain results in reasonable agreement with recent experimental data in a wide range of energy scale ∼0.1–10 GeV. We demonstrate that global properties of some low-energy phenomena may be explained reasonably in the framework of a simple relativistic quantum-field model if one guesses correct symmetry structure of the quark-gluon interaction in the confinement region and uses simple forms of propagators in the hadronisation regime. The model may serve a reasonable framework to describe simultaneously different sectors in low-energy particle physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Polycystin-1 interacts with TAZ to stimulate osteoblastogenesis and inhibit adipogenesis

The molecular mechanisms that transduce the osteoblast response to physical forces in the bone microenvironment are poorly understood. In this paper, we used genetic and pharmacological experiments to determine whether the polycystins PC1 and PC2 (encoded by Pkd1 and Pkd2) and the transcriptional coactivator TAZ form a mechanosensing complex in osteoblasts. Compound-heterozygous mice lacking 1 copy of Pkd1 and Taz exhibited additive decrements in bone mass, impaired osteoblast-mediated bone formation, and enhanced bone marrow fat accumulation. Bone marrow stromal cells and osteoblasts derived from these mice showed impaired osteoblastogenesis and enhanced adipogenesis. Increased extracellular matrix stiffness and application of mechanical stretch to multipotent mesenchymal cells stimulated the nuclear translocation of the PC1 C-terminal tail/TAZ (PC1-CTT/TAZ) complex, leading to increased runt-related transcription factor 2–mediated (Runx2-mediated) osteogenic and decreased PPARγ-dependent adipogenic gene expression. Using structure-based virtual screening, we identified a compound predicted to bind to PC2 in the PC1:PC2 C-terminal tail region with helix:helix interaction. This molecule stimulated polycystin- and TAZ-dependent osteoblastogenesis and inhibited adipogenesis. Therefore, we show that polycystins and TAZ integrate at the molecular level to reciprocally regulate osteoblast and adipocyte differentiation, indicating that the polycystins/TAZ complex may be a potential therapeutic target to increase bone mass.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1985

Control plate for shock-boundary layer interaction

Paper describes tests and computations for a relatively unique technique to greatly reduce/eliminate the separation region for shock-boundary layer interactions. A number of studies have shown that the usual effects of such interactions include increased local heating and wall pressures, thickening of the boundary layer and a decrease in the momentum of the flow and, for stronger waves, flow separation. This flow situation is particularly prevalent in supersonic and hypersonic inlets where severe performance degradation can occur due to flow separation. High performance engine design generally requires a uniform entering flow field with little stagnation pressure loss. Previous approaches to the problem involved primarily active devices (e.g., suction or blowing); the present paper considers a passive device. The boundary layer separation control technique considered herein involves the placement of an embedded plate in the outer portion of the boundary layer and parallel to the wall. This control plate is situated such that the incident shock impinges upon and reflects from its surface, thus greatly lessening the pressure gradient in the low momentum near wall region.

Goodman, W. L.↗

DOE OSTI2014

HUWE1 interacts with BRCA1 and promotes its degradation in the ubiquitin–proteasome pathway (Biochemical and Biophysical Research Communications, v. 444, isse 4)

Highlights: • The 2000–2634aa region of HUWE1 mediates the interaction with BRCA1 degron. • HUWE1 promotes the degradation of BRCA1 through the ubiquitin–proteasome pathway. • HUWE1 expression is inversely correlated with BRCA1 in breast cancer cells. • RNAi inhibition of HUWE1 confers increased resistance of MCF-10F cells to IR and MMC. - Abstract: The cellular BRCA1 protein level is essential for its tumor suppression activity and is tightly regulated through multiple mechanisms including ubiquitn–proteasome system. E3 ligases are involved to promote BRCA1 for ubiquitination and degradation. Here, we identified HUWE1/Mule/ARF-BP1 as a novel BRCA1-interacting protein involved in the control of BRCA1 protein level. HUWE1 binds BRCA1 through its N-terminus degron domain. Depletion of HUWE1 by siRNA-mediated interference significantly increases BRCA1 protein levels and prolongs the half-life of BRCA1. Moreover, exogenous expression of HUWE1 promotes BRCA1 degradation through the ubiquitin–proteasome pathway, which could explain an inverse correlation between HUWE1 and BRCA1 levels in MCF10F, MCF7 and MDA-MB-231 breast cancer cells. Consistent with a functional role for HUWE1 in regulating BRCA1-mediated cellular response to DNA damage, depletion of HUWE1 by siRNA confers increased resistance to ionizing radiation and mitomycin. These data indicate that HUWE1 is a critical negative regulator of BRCA1 and suggest a new molecular mechanism for breast cancer pathogenesis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stronger Tropical Cyclone–Induced Ocean Cooling in Near-Coastal Regions Compared to the Open Ocean

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TC) often induce strong mixing in the upper ocean that generates a trail of cooler sea surface temperature (Twake) in their wakes. The Twake can affect TC intensity, so its prediction is important, especially in coastal regions where TCs can make landfall. Coastal Twakes are often more complex than those in the open ocean due to the influences of coastline geometry, highly variable water depth, continental runoff, and shelf processes. Using observational data since 2002, here we show a significantly stronger global mean Twake in coastal regions compared to offshore regions. Temperature stratification is the main driver of stronger coastal Twakes in the North Atlantic and east Pacific. In the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean, the differences between coastal and offshore Twakes are smaller due to compensation between TC forcings and ocean stratification. The north Indian Ocean is unique in the Northern Hemisphere because salinity stratification plays a major role on the spatial distribution of Twake. In the South Pacific Ocean, TC intensity and translation speed are crucial for explaining coastal–offshore Twake differences, while ocean stratification and mixed layer depth are more important for the coastal–offshore Twake differences in the south Indian Ocean. These findings suggest that coastal–offshore differences in ocean stratification need to be properly represented in models in order to capture changes in TC-induced ocean cooling as storms approach landfall. Significance Statement Landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) often cause considerable damage in coastal regions with dense human populations. Understanding TC–ocean interaction and how it differs between coastal and offshore regions can help predict TC intensity prior to landfall. Sea surface cooling after TC passage is an important proxy for TC–ocean interaction. A global evaluation of coastal TC-induced cooling has not been conducted. Using data covering two decades, we show significantly stronger TC-induced surface cooling in coastal regions compared to offshore regions at the global scale and in all basins except the northwest Pacific and north Indian Ocean. The difference is driven mainly by upper-ocean conditions in the North Atlantic, east Pacific, and south Indian Ocean, and by TC characteristics in the South Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Structure of the Newcastle disease virus hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) ectodomain reveals a four-helix bundle stalk

The paramyxovirus hemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) protein plays multiple roles in viral entry and egress, including binding to sialic acid receptors, activating the fusion (F) protein to activate membrane fusion and viral entry, and cleaving sialic acid from carbohydrate chains. HN is an oligomeric integral membrane protein consisting of an N-terminal transmembrane domain, a stalk region, and an enzymatically active neuraminidase (NA) domain. Structures of the HN NA domains have been solved previously; however, the structure of the stalk region has remained elusive. The stalk region contains specificity determinants for F interactions and activation, underlying the requirement for homotypic F and HN interactions in viral entry. Mutations of the Newcastle disease virus HN stalk region have been shown to affect both F activation and NA activities, but a structural basis for understanding these dual affects on HN functions has been lacking. Here, we report the structure of the Newcastle disease virus HN ectodomain, revealing dimers of NA domain dimers flanking the N-terminal stalk domain. The stalk forms a parallel tetrameric coiled-coil bundle (4HB) that allows classification of extensive mutational data, providing insight into the functional roles of the stalk region. Mutations that affect both F activation and NA activities map predominantly to the 4HB hydrophobic core, whereas mutations that affect only F-protein activation map primarily to the 4HB surface. Two of four NA domains interact with the 4HB stalk, and residues at this interface in both the stalk and NA domain have been implicated in HN function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional Airports

Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.

VFR↗