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Summit on Improving the Economics of America's Nuclear Power Plants

The Summit on Improving the Economics of America’s Nuclear Power Plants was convened May 19, 2016, by Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz and co-sponsored by Idaho Senator Mike Crapo to stress the importance of existing nuclear reactors in meeting our nation’s energy goals. The summit was also designed to identify and discuss policy options that can be pursued at federal and state levels to address economic challenges, as well as technical options that utilities can use to improve the economic competitiveness of operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) and avoid early plant retirements that are driven by temporary market conditions. The owners of NPPs face difficult economic decisions and are working to improve the performance of existing NPPs. However, it soon became clear that some of the actions taken by states and regional markets have had an impact on the economic viability of existing power plants, including carbon free NPPs. Summit speakers identified concepts and actions that could be taken at state and federal levels to improve the economics of the existing fleet within these regulated and restructured electricity markets. This report summarizes the speeches, concepts, and actions taken.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: Integrated Program Plan

Nuclear power has safely, reliably, and economically contributed almost 20% of electrical generation in the United States over the past two decades. It remains the single largest contributor (more than 60%) of non-greenhouse-gas-emitting electric power generation in the United States. Domestic demand for electrical energy is expected to grow by about 24% from 2013 to 2040 . At the same time, most of the currently operating nuclear power plants will begin reaching the end of their initial 20-year extension to their original 40-year operating license, for a total of 60 years of operation (the oldest commercial plants in the United States reached their 40th anniversary in 2009). Figure E-1 shows projected nuclear energy contribution to the domestic generating capacity for 40- and 60-year license periods. If current operating nuclear power plants do not operate beyond 60 years (and new nuclear plants are not built quickly enough to replace them), the total fraction of generated electrical energy from nuclear power will rapidly decline. That decline will be accelerated if plants are shut down before 60 years of operation. Decisions on extended operation ultimately rely on economic factors; however, economics can often be improved through technical advancements. The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy’s 2010 Research and Development Roadmap (2010 Nuclear Energy Roadmap) organizes its activities around four objectives that ensure nuclear energy remains a compelling and viable energy option for the United States. The four objectives are as follows: 1. Develop technologies and other solutions that can improve the reliability, sustain the safety, and extend the life of the current reactors; 2. Develop improvements in the affordability of new reactors to enable nuclear energy to help meet the Administration’s energy security and climate change goals; 3. Develop sustainable nuclear fuel cycles; and 4. Understand and minimize the risks of nuclear proliferation and terrorism. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program is the primary programmatic activity that addresses Objective 1. This document summarizes the LWRS Program’s plans. For the LWRS Program, sustainability is defined as the ability to maintain safe and economic operation of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants for a longer-than-initially-licensed lifetime. It has two facets with respect to long-term operations: (1) manage the aging of plant systems, structures, and components so that nuclear power plant lifetimes can be extended and the plants can continue to operate safely, efficiently, and economically; and (2) provide science-based solutions to the industry to implement technology to exceed the performance of the current labor-intensive business model.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Preventive Rad/Nuc Detection Equipment Categorization for Consequence Management

The overall objective of this project is to research, evaluate, and test first responder preventive radiological/nuclear detection equipment (PRND) to provide state and local agencies with guidance on how to best use this equipment for response after a radiological/nuclear release or detonation. While the equipment being tested in this effort has been specifically designed for detection and interdiction operations, the fleet of PRND equipment can help fill critical needs for radiological instrumentation should a consequence management response take place. This effort will provide scientific guidance on the best way to deploy and operate this class of equipment for consequence management missions. With the support of the US Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO), PRND equipment has been placed into service at federal, state, and local agencies throughout the nation. If the equipment capability and limitations are taken into account, this large inventory can be repurposed to support the emergency response in the aftermath of a radiological of nuclear event. This report evaluates PRND equipment to define key categories of equipment and the types of missions they can be used for. This is important because there are over 100 different types of PRND equipment, often with significantly different capabilities with respect to the consequence management mission. The current DNDO draft NIMS PRND equipment types were used as a foundation and expanded, when necessary, to address key characteristics important for the consequence mission. Table 1 provides a summary of the PRND instrument categories developed for this effort. Also included on the table are some common response mission detection equipment categories that will be used for capability comparisons.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Foothill Transit Battery Electric Bus Demonstration Results: Second Report

This report summarizes results of a battery electric bus (BEB) evaluation at Foothill Transit, located in the San Gabriel and Pomona Valley region of Los Angeles County, California. Foothill Transit is collaborating with the California Air Resources Board and the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory to evaluate its fleet of Proterra BEBs in revenue service. The focus of this evaluation is to compare performance of the BEBs to that of conventional technology and to track progress over time toward meeting performance targets. This project has also provided an opportunity for DOE to conduct a detailed evaluation of the BEBs and charging infrastructure. This is the second report summarizing the results of the BEB demonstration at Foothill Transit and it provides data on the buses from August 2015 through December 2016. Data are provided on a selection of compressed natural gas buses as a baseline comparison.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Migration of Older to New Digital Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plant Main Control Rooms

The United States (U.S.) Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) has the primary mission to advance nuclear power by resolving socio-technical issues through research and development (R&D). One DOE-NE activity supporting this mission is the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. LWRS has the overall objective to sustain the operation of existing commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) through conducting R&D across multiple “pathways,” or R&D focus areas. The Advanced Instrumentation, Information, and Control (II&C) Systems Technologies pathway conducts targeted R&D to address aging and reliability concerns with the legacy instrumentation and control (I&C) and related information systems in operating U.S. NPPs. This work involves (1) ensuring that legacy analog II&C systems are not life-limiting issues for the LWR fleet, and (2) implementing digital II&C technology in a manner that enables broad innovation and business improvement in the NPP operating model. Under the LWRS Advanced II&C pathway, Human Factors experts at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) have been conducting R&D in support of NPP main control room (MCR) modernization activities. Work in prior years has focused on migrating analog I&C systems to new digital I&C systems (). In fiscal year 2016 (FY16), one new focus area for this research is migrating older digital I&C systems to new and advanced digital I&C systems. This report summarizes a plan for conducting a digital-to-digital migration of a legacy digital I&C system to a new digital I&C system in support of control room modernization activities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Do PEV Drivers Park Near Publicly Accessible EVSE in San Diego but Not Use Them?

The PEV charging stations deployed as part of The EV Project included both residential and non-residential sites. Non-residential sites included EVSE installed in workplace environments, fleet applications and those that were publicly accessible near retail centers, parking lots, and similar locations. The EV Project utilized its Micro-Climate® planning process to determine potential sites for publicly accessible EVSE in San Diego. This process worked with local stakeholders to target EVSE deployment near areas where significant PEV traffic and parking was expected. This planning process is described in The Micro-Climate deployment Process in San Diego1. The EV Project issued its deployment plan for San Diego in November 2010, prior to the sale of PEVs by Nissan and Chevrolet. The Project deployed residential EVSE concurrent with vehicle delivery starting in December 2010. The installation of non-residential EVSE commenced in April 2011 consistent with the original Project schedule, closely following the adoption of PEVs. The residential participation portion of The EV Project was fully subscribed by January 2013 and the non-residential EVSE deployment was essentially completed by August 2013.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

2016 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report

The 2016 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report was developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and is intended to provide offshore wind policymakers, regulators, developers, researchers, engineers, financiers, and supply chain participants, with quantitative information about the offshore wind market, technology, and cost trends in the United States and worldwide. In particular, this report is intended to provide detailed information on the domestic offshore wind industry to provide context to help navigate technical and market barriers and opportunities. The scope of the report covers the status of the 111 operating offshore wind projects in the global fleet through December 31, 2016, and provides the status and analysis on a broader pipeline of 593 projects at some stage of development. In addition, this report provides a wider assessment of domestic developments and events through the second quarter of 2017 to provide a more up-to-date discussion of this dynamically evolving industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Advanced Instrumentation, Information, and Control Systems Technologies Technical Program Plan for FY 2016

Reliable instrumentation, information, and control (II&C) systems technologies are essential to ensuring safe and efficient operation of the U.S. light water reactor (LWR) fleet. These technologies affect every aspect of nuclear power plant (NPP) and balance-of-plant operations. In 1997, the National Research Council conducted a study concerning the challenges involved in modernization of digital instrumentation and control systems in NPPs. Their findings identified the need for new II&C technology integration.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Utility-Scale Solar 2016: An Empirical Analysis of Project Cost, Performance, and Pricing Trends in the United States

The utility-scale solar sector has led the overall U.S. solar market in terms of installed capacity since 2012. In 2016, the utility-scale sector installed more than 2.5 times as much new capacity as did the residential and commercial sectors combined, and is expected to maintain its dominant position for at least another five years. This report—the fifth edition in an ongoing annual series—provides data-driven analysis of the utility-scale solar project fleet in the United States. We analyze not just installed project prices, but also operating costs, capacity factors, and power purchase agreement ("PPA") prices from a large sample of utility-scale PV and CSP projects throughout the United States. Highlights from this year's edition include the following: Installation Trends: The use of solar tracking devices dominated 2016 installations, at nearly 80% of all new capacity. In a reflection of the ongoing geographic expansion of the market beyond California and the Southwest, the median long-term average insolation level at newly built project sites declined again in 2016. While new fixed-tilt projects are now seen predominantly in less-sunny regions, tracking projects are increasingly pushing into these same regions. The median inverter loading ratio has stabilized in 2016 at 1.3 for both tracking and fixed-tilt projects. Installed Prices: Median installed PV project prices within a sizable sample have fallen by two-thirds since the 2007-2009 period, to $2.2/WAC (or $1.7/WDC) for projects completed in 2016. The lowest 20th percentile of projects within our 2016 sample were priced at or below $2.0/WAC, with the lowest-priced projects around $1.5/WAC. Overall price dispersion across the entire sample and across geographic regions decreased significantly in 2016. Operation and Maintenance (“O&M”) Costs: What limited empirical O&M cost data are publicly available suggest that PV O&M costs were in the neighborhood of $18/kWAC-year, or $8/MWh, in 2016. These numbers include only those costs incurred to directly operate and maintain the generating plant. Capacity Factors: The cumulative net AC capacity factors of individual PV projects range widely, from 15.4% to 35.5%, with a sample median of 26.3%. This project-level variation is based on a number of factors, including the strength of the solar resource at the project site, whether the array is mounted at a fixed-tilt or on a tracking mechanism, the inverter loading ratio, degradation, and curtailment. Changes in at least the first three of these factors drove mean capacity factors higher from 2010- to 2013-vintage projects, where they’ve remained fairly steady among both 2014- and 2015-vintage projects as an ongoing increase in the prevalence of tracking has been offset by a build-out of lower resource sites. Meanwhile, several of the newer CSP projects in the United States are struggling to match long-term performance expectations. PPA Prices: Driven by lower installed project prices and improving capacity factors, levelized PPA prices for utility-scale PV have fallen dramatically over time. Most recent PPAs in our sample are priced at or below $50/MWh levelized, with a few priced as aggressively as ~$30/MWh. Though impressive in pace and scale, these falling PPA prices have been offset to some degree by declining wholesale market value within high penetration markets like California, where in 2016 a MWh of solar generation was worth just 83% of a MWh of flat, round-the-clock generation. At the end of 2016, there were at least 121.4 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity within the interconnection queues across the nation. The growth within these queues is widely distributed across all regions of the country: California and the Southeast each account for 23% of the 83.3 GW of solar that first entered the queues in 2016, followed by the Northeast (17%), the Southwest (16%), the Central region (12%), Texas (6%) and the Northwest (3%). The widening geographic distribution of solar projects is a clear sign that the utility-scale market is maturing and expanding outside of its traditional high-insolation comfort zones.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Predictive characterization of aging and degradation of reactor materials in extreme environments. Final report, December 20, 2013 - September 20, 2017

Understanding of reactor material behavior in extreme environments is vital not only to the development of new materials for the next generation nuclear reactors, but also to the extension of the operating lifetimes of the current fleet of nuclear reactors. To this end, this project conducted a suite of unique experimental techniques, augmented by a mesoscale computational framework, to understand and predict the long-term effects of irradiation, temperature, and stress on material microstructures and their macroscopic behavior. The experimental techniques and computational tools were demonstrated on two distinctive types of reactor materials, namely, Zr alloys and high-Cr martensitic steels. These materials are chosen as the test beds because they are the archetypes of high-performance reactor materials (cladding, wrappers, ducts, pressure vessel, piping, etc.). To fill the knowledge gaps, and to meet the technology needs, a suite of innovative in situ transmission electron microscopy (TEM) characterization techniques (heating, heavy ion irradiation, He implantation, quantitative small-scale mechanical testing, and various combinations thereof) were developed and used to elucidate and map the fundamental mechanisms of microstructure evolution in both Zr and Cr alloys for a wide range environmental boundary conditions in the thermal-mechanical-irradiation input space. Knowledge gained from the experimental observations of the active mechanisms and the role of local microstructural defects on the response of the material has been incorporated into a mathematically rigorous and comprehensive three-dimensional mesoscale framework capable of accounting for the compositional variation, microstructural evolution and localized deformation (radiation damage) to predict aging and degradation of key reactor materials operating in extreme environments. Predictions from this mesoscale framework were compared with the in situ TEM observations to validate the model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

External Cooling of the BWR Mark I and II Drywell Head as a Potential Accident Mitigation Measure – Scoping Assessment

This report documents a scoping assessment of a potential accident mitigation action applicable to the US fleet of boiling water reactors with Mark I and II containments. The mitigation action is to externally flood the primary containment vessel drywell head using portable pumps or other means. A scoping assessment of the potential benefits of this mitigation action was conducted focusing on the ability to (1) passively remove heat from containment, (2) prevent or delay leakage through the drywell head seal (due to high temperatures and/or pressure), and (3) scrub radionuclide releases if the drywell head seal leaks.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Fracture toughness evaluation of select advanced replacement alloys for LWR core internals

Life extension of the existing nuclear reactors imposes irradiation of high fluences to structural materials, resulting in significant challenges to the traditional reactor materials such as type 304 and 316 stainless steels. Advanced alloys with superior radiation resistance will increase safety margins, design flexibility, and economics for not only the life extension of the existing fleet but also new builds with advanced reactor designs. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) teamed up with Department of Energy (DOE) to initiate the Advanced Radiation Resistant Materials (ARRM) program, aiming to develop and test degradation resistant alloys from current commercial alloy specifications by 2021 to a new advanced alloy with superior degradation resistance in light water reactor (LWR)-relevant environments by 2024. Fracture toughness is one of the key engineering properties required for core internal materials. Together with other properties, which are being examined such as high-temperature steam oxidation resistance, radiation hardening, and irradiation-assisted stress corrosion cracking resistance, the alloys will be down-selected for neutron irradiation study and comprehensive post-irradiation examinations. According to the candidate alloys selected under the ARRM program, ductile fracture toughness of eight alloys was evaluated at room temperature and the LWR-relevant temperatures. The tested alloys include two ferritic alloys (Grade 92 and an oxide-dispersion-strengthened alloy 14YWT), two austenitic stainless steels (316L and 310), four Ni-base superalloys (718A, 725, 690, and X750). Alloy 316L and X750 are included as reference alloys for low- and high-strength alloys, respectively. Compact tension specimens in 0.25T and 0.2T were machined from the alloys in the T-L and R-L orientations according to the product forms of the alloys. This report summarizes the final results of the specimens tested and analyzed per ASTM Standard E1820. Unlike the ferritic alloys showing slight decreases (Grade 92) or significant decreases (14YWT) in fracture toughness at elevated temperatures, the fracture toughness of the austenitic stainless steels and Ni-base superalloys were not strongly dependent upon the test temperatures. The fracture toughness of the alloys at the LWR-relevant temperatures was estimated by averaging the toughness values within 250– 350°C, which suggested the fracture toughness of the alloys in a descending order as 316L (752±98 MPa√m), 310 (513±66 MPa√m), 718A (313±43 MPa√m), 690 (267±48 MPa√m), 725 (218±55 MPa√m), X750 (145±16 MPa√m), Grade 92 (112±12 MPa√m), and 14YWT (63±3 MPa√m). Tearing modulus of the alloys was analyzed in the meantime, which were not strongly dependent upon the test temperatures. The high-strength alloys 718A, 725, X750, and 14YWT had the lowest tearing modulus, ranging from ~45 to ~7. Alloy 690 exhibited the highest tearing modulus on the order of 450, followed by 316L and 310 on the order of 260. Grade 92 had a noticeably lower tearing modulus on the order of 70.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Summary of FY17 ParaChoice Accomplishments

As part of analysis support for FCTO, Sandia assesses the factors that influence the future of FCEVs and Hydrogen in the US vehicle fleet. Using ParaChoice, we model competition between FCEVs, conventional vehicles, and other alternative vehicle technologies in order to understand the drivers and sensitivities of adoption of FCEVs. ParaChoice leverages existing tools such as Autonomie (Moawad et al., 2016), AEO (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2016), and the Macro System Model (Ruth et al., 2009) in order to synthesize a complete picture of the co-evolution of vehicle technology development, energy price evolution, and hydrogen production and pricing, with consumer demand for vehicles and fuel. We then assess impacts of FCEV market penetration and hydrogen use on green- house gas (GHG) emissions and petroleum consumption, providing context for the role of policy, technology development, infrastructure, and consumer behavior on the vehicle and fuel mix through parametric and sensitivity analyses.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Nuclear Power Plant Cyber Security Discrete Dynamic Event Tree Analysis (LDRD 17-0958) FY17 Report

Instrumentation and control of nuclear power is transforming from analog to modern digital assets. These control systems perform key safety and security functions. This transformation is occurring in new plant designs as well as in the existing fleet of plants as the operation of those plants is extended to 60 years. This transformation introduces new and unknown issues involving both digital asset induced safety issues and security issues. Traditional nuclear power risk assessment tools and cyber security assessment methods have not been modified or developed to address the unique nature of cyber failure modes and of cyber security threat vulnerabilities. iii This Lab-Directed Research and Development project has developed a dynamic cyber-risk in- formed tool to facilitate the analysis of unique cyber failure modes and the time sequencing of cyber faults, both malicious and non-malicious, and impose those cyber exploits and cyber faults onto a nuclear power plant accident sequence simulator code to assess how cyber exploits and cyber faults could interact with a plants digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) system and defeat or circumvent a plants cyber security controls. This was achieved by coupling an existing Sandia National Laboratories nuclear accident dynamic simulator code with a cyber emulytics code to demonstrate real-time simulation of cyber exploits and their impact on automatic DI&C responses. Studying such potential time-sequenced cyber-attacks and their risks (i.e., the associated impact and the associated degree of difficulty to achieve the attack vector) on accident management establishes a technical risk informed framework for developing effective cyber security controls for nuclear power.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

High-Throughput Study of Diffusion and Phase Transformation Kinetics of Magnesium-Based Systems for Automotive Cast Magnesium Alloys

The objective of the proposed study is to establish a scientific foundation on kinetic modeling of diffusion, phase precipitation, and casting/solidification, in order to accelerate the design and optimization of cast magnesium (Mg) alloys for weight reduction of U.S. automotive fleet. The team has performed the following tasks: 1) study diffusion kinetics of various Mg-containing binary systems using high-throughput diffusion multiples to establish reliable diffusivity and mobility databases for the Mg-aluminum (Al)-zinc (Zn)-tin (Sn)-calcium (Ca)-strontium (Sr)-manganese (Mn) systems; 2) study the precipitation kinetics (nucleation, growth and coarsening) using both innovative dual-anneal diffusion multiples and cast model alloys to provide large amounts of kinetic data (including interfacial energy) and microstructure atlases to enable implementation of the Kampmann-Wagner numerical model to simulate phase transformation kinetics of non-spherical/non-cuboidal precipitates in Mg alloys; 3) implement a micromodel to take into account back diffusion in the solid phase in order to predict microstructure and microsegregation in multicomponent Mg alloys during dendritic solidification especially under high pressure die-casting (HPDC) conditions; and, 4) widely disseminate the data, knowledge and information using the Materials Genome Initiative infrastructure (http://www.mgidata.org) as well as publications and digital data sharing to enable researchers to identify new pathways/routes to better cast Mg alloys.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Down-selection of candidate alloys for further testing of advanced replacement materials for LWR core internals

Life extension of the existing nuclear reactors imposes irradiation of high fluences to structural materials, resulting in significant challenges to the traditional reactor materials such as type 304 and 316 stainless steels. Advanced alloys with superior radiation resistance will increase safety margins, design flexibility, and economics for not only the life extension of the existing fleet but also new builds with advanced reactor designs. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) teamed up with Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program to initiate the Advanced Radiation Resistant Materials (ARRM) program, aiming to identify and develop advanced alloys with superior degradation resistance in light water reactor (LWR)-relevant environments by 2024.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Mission Analysis for Using Preventive Radiological/Nuclear Detection Equipment for Consequence Management

The overall objective of this project is to research, evaluate, and test first responder preventive radiological/nuclear detection (PRND) equipment to provide state and local agencies with scientific guidance on how to effectively use this equipment for response after a radiological/nuclear release or detonation. While the equipment being tested in this effort has been specifically designed by technology manufacturers and purchased by responders for preventive detection and source interdiction operations, the fleet of PRND equipment can help fill critical needs for radiological instrumentation should a consequence management (CM) response take place, as it is currently the most widely available and fielded radiological instrumentation by state and local agencies. This effort will provide scientific guidance on the most effective way to utilize this class of equipment for consequence management missions. Gaining a better understanding of how PRND equipment can operate and perform for these missions will allow for recommendations on the tactical approach responders can use for consequence management operations. PRND equipment has been placed into service by federal, state, and local agencies throughout the nation. If the equipment capability and limitations are taken into account, this large inventory can be leveraged to support the emergency response in the aftermath of a radiological or nuclear event. With several hundred makes and models of PRND equipment, often with significantly different detection capabilities that do not align with their nominal PRND equipment type, development of a streamlined categorization scheme with respect to consequence management missions was the first step to identifying safe and effective uses of PRND equipment for radiological/nuclear incident response.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗