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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Active Learning Surrogates for Integrating Electron Microscopy and Computational Insights from Simulations in Autonomous Experiments

Artificial Intelligence (AI) combined with simulations and experiments has great potential to accelerate scientific discovery across technology and pharmaceuticals. However, the gap between simulations and experiments is challenging due to disparities in time and scale, making it difficult to estimate properties like energy and electronic states from experiments, and to provide feedback based on theoretical insights.Our research addresses the challenge by developing unique deep kernel based surrogate models that learns from microscopic images, mapping structural features to energy differences from defect formation. We start with full-training using simulated images to determine optimal settings, establishing a baseline for active learning. Using these settings from the baseline, active learning is trained, and predicts structures along simulation trajectories based on uncertainty and energetic stability, thus reducing data requirements, simulation time and computational costs. The results demonstrate that the model achieves a low average error margin of approximately 0.03 meV, indicating good performance. To enhance feature extraction and reconstruction capabilities, we developed an autoencoder-decoder as additional surrogate to create latent space to capture essential features, enabling precise comparisons between simulations and experiments. The results from this model achieved a reconstruction loss of around 0.2 and accurately reconstructed molecular structures.Overall, this work advances the steering of experiments through computational simulations by employing a surrogate models that actively predicts the trajectories of structural evolution, achieving time-to-solution comparable to experimental measurements.

Saranathan, Gayathri [Hewlett-Packard]↗
DOE OSTI2015

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

Abstract Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade‐offs inherent in large‐scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long‐term, single‐factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large‐scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi‐faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most powerful and urgent way forward in order to improve our understanding of tropical forest responses to climate change.

Cavaleri, Molly A.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Experiments and Simulations on the Turbulent, Rarefaction Wave Driven Rayleigh–Taylor Instability

Experiments were performed to observe the growth of the turbulent, Rayleigh–Taylor unstable mixing layer generated between air and SF 6 , with an Atwood number of A=(ρ 2 –ρ 1 )/(ρ 2 +ρ 1 ) = 0.64, where ρ 1 and ρ 2 are the densities of air and SF 6 , respectively. A nonconstant acceleration with an average value of 2300g 0 , where g 0 is the acceleration due to gravity, was generated by interaction of the interface between the two gases with a rarefaction wave. Three-dimensional, multimode perturbations were generated on the diffuse interface, with a diffusion layer thickness of δ = 3.6 mm, using a membraneless vertical oscillation technique, and 20 experiments were performed to establish a statistical ensemble. The average perturbation from this ensemble was extracted and used as input for a numerical simulation using the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Miranda code. Good qualitative agreement between the experiment and simulation was observed, while quantitative agreement was best at early to intermediate times. Several methods were used to extract the turbulent growth constant α from experiments and simulations while accounting for time varying acceleration. Experimental, average bubble and spike asymptotic self-similar growth rate values range from α = 0.022 to α = 0.032 depending on the method used, and accounting for variable acceleration. Values found from the simulations range from α = 0.024 to α = 0.041. Here, the values of α measured in the experiments are lower than what are typically measured in the literature but are more in line with those found in recent simulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cylindricity Sensitivity Thermal Model of the AGR-5/6/7 Experiment in the Advanced Test Reactor

The AGR-5/6/7 experiment is currently being irradiated in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at the Idaho National Laboratory and is approximately 70% complete. Several fuel and material irradiation experiments have been planned for the U.S. Department of Energy Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program, which supports the development and qualification of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particle fuel for use in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. The goals of these experiments are to provide irradiation performance data to support fuel process development, qualify fuel for normal operating conditions, support development of fuel performance models and codes, and provide irradiated fuel and materials for post-irradiation examination and safety testing. Originally planned and named as separate fuel experiments, but subsequently combined into a single test train, AGR-5/6/7 is testing low-enriched uranium oxycarbide TRISO fuel. The AGR-5/6/7 test train has 5 capsules with thermocouples and independent gas control mixtures. Unique to this paper is a sensitivity study concerning the cylindricity of the graphite holders containing the fuel compacts and their eccentricity in relation to the stainless-steel capsule walls. Each capsule has small nubs on the outside used for centering the graphite holder inside the stainless-steel capsule with a small gas gap used to control temperature. Due to machining tolerances of these nubs and vibration wearing the nubs down when the experiment is running in the reactor, the possibility exists that the holder may move around radially. Each capsule is equipped with several thermocouples placed at various radii and depths within each graphite holder. This paper will show the sensitivity of offsetting the graphite holder for various radii in 45-degree increments around the circle with the objective of minimizing the difference between the measured thermocouples and the modeled thermocouple temperatures. Separate gas mixtures of helium/neon are introduced into this gas gap between the holder and capsule wall and changed as necessary to maintain the desired thermocouple temperatures to keep the fuel compacts at constant temperature as the nuclear reactor conditions change. The goal of the sensitivity study is to find a radius and an angle to offset the holder from perfectly centered for each of the five capsules separately. The complex thermal model includes fission heating, gamma heating, radiation heat transfer, and heat transfer via conduction and radiation across the control gaps. Subroutines linked to the thermal model offer an easy method to offset the graphite holder from the capsule walls without remeshing the entire model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantum advantage in learning from experiments

Quantum technology promises to revolutionize how we learn about the physical world. An experiment that processes quantum data with a quantum computer could have substantial advantages over conventional experiments in which quantum states are measured and outcomes are processed with a classical computer. We proved that quantum machines could learn from exponentially fewer experiments than the number required by conventional experiments. This exponential advantage is shown for predicting properties of physical systems, performing quantum principal component analysis, and learning about physical dynamics. Furthermore, the quantum resources needed for achieving an exponential advantage are quite modest in some cases. Conducting experiments with 40 superconducting qubits and 1300 quantum gates, we demonstrated that a substantial quantum advantage is possible with today’s quantum processors.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2019

Channeling and radiation experiments at SLAC

Since 2014, a SLAC-Aarhus-Ferrara-CalPoly collaboration augmented by members of ANL and MIT has performed electron and positron channeling experiments using bent silicon crystals at the SLAC End Station A Test Beam as well as the FACET accelerator test facility. These experiments have revealed a remarkable channeling efficiency of about 24% under our conditions. Volume reflection is even more efficient with almost the whole beam taking part in the reflection process. A positron experiment demonstrated quasi-channeling oscillations for the first time at high beam energy. In our most recent experiment we measured the spectrum of gamma radiation for crystal orientations covering channeling and volume reflection. We report this series of experiments supports the development of more advanced crystalline devices capable e.g. of producing narrow-band gamma rays with electron beams or studying the interaction of the electrons with the wakefields generated in the crystal at high beam intensity.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Responses in the Subpolar North Atlantic in Two Climate Model Sensitivity Experiments with Increased Stratospheric Aerosols

Abstract The subpolar North Atlantic (SPNA) shows contrasting responses in two sensitivity experiments with increased stratospheric aerosols, offering insight into the physical processes that may impact the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in a warmer climate. In one, the upper ocean becomes warm and salty, but in the other it becomes cold and fresh. The changes are accompanied by diverging AMOC responses. The first experiment strengthens the AMOC, opposing the weakening trend in the reference simulation. The second experiment shows a much smaller impact. Both simulations use the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model component (CESM-WACCM) but differ in model versions and stratospheric aerosol specifications. Despite both experiments using similar approaches to increase stratospheric aerosols to counteract the rising global temperature, the contrasting SPNA and AMOC responses indicate a considerable dependency on model physics, climate states, and model responses to forcings. This study focuses on examining the physical processes involved with the impact of stratospheric aerosols on the SPNA salinity changes and their potential connections with the AMOC and the Arctic. We find that in both cases, increased stratospheric aerosols act to enhance the SPNA upper-ocean salinity by reducing freshwater export from the Arctic, which is closely tied to the Arctic sea ice changes. The impact on AMOC is primarily through the thermal component of the surface buoyancy fluxes, with negligible contributions from the freshwater component. These experiments shed light on the physical processes that dictate the important connections between the SPNA, the Arctic, the AMOC, and their subsequent feedbacks on the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization of the BDX experiment for Light Dark Matter searches at JLab

The Light Dark Matter (LDM) hypothesis postulates the existence of a new class of sub GeV particles, neutral under Standard Model (SM) interactions. In its simplest form, LDM consists of particles ¿ with masses below 1 GeV/c2, interacting with SM particles via a new force mediated by a light, spin-1 boson A0, commonly referred to as “Dark Photon”. This framework envisions a distinct “Dark Sector” with its own particles and interactions, offering a theoretically well motivated explanation for Dark Matter, consistent with astrophysical observations and a thermal production mechanism. The Beam Dump eXperiment (BDX) is an approved experiment at Jefferson Lab designed to search for Light Dark Matter. BDX will utilize an 11 GeV electron beam impinging on a thick target to produce a forward-boosted secondary beam of Light Dark Matter particles, which will then be detected by a dedicated downstream detector. Approved in 2018, BDX is expected to be commissioned in 2026 and run in 2027-2029. My thesis focuses on the preparatory work to deploy the BDX experiment. The detector design has been optimized to balance practicality with enhanced Light Dark Matter detection capabilities. Extensive characterization of detector components has been performed to ensure a precise understanding of detector response. A custom Monte Carlo framework has been developed to simulate Light Dark Matter signal and explore various theoretical models of interest. Additionally, a comprehensive data analysis framework has been developed to maximize the experiment sensitivity to Light Dark Matter, with optimizations based on expected detector performance. The ultimate goal of this thesis is to optimize BDX as a flagship experiment in Light Dark Matter searches, enabling it to probe different Dark Matter models.

Spreafico, M. [Univ. of Genova (Italy)]↗
DOE OSTI2019

Muon g-2: An Interplay between Beam Dynamics and a Muon Decay Experiment at the Precision Frontier

The Muon g-2 Experiment at Fermilab (E989) will use the higher proton flux delivered by the Fermilab accelerator complex and improvements to the experimental apparatus to measure the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon to unprecedented precision. In addition to the increased statistics beyond the most recent measurement, the experiment relies on detailed understanding of the beam dynamics in the experiment’s storage ring as well as the incoming muon beam properties for proper assessments of systematic errors in the data analysis. Modeling and measurements of beam and storage ring properties, from proton targeting to muon storage, produce a unique unification of particle beam physics with a high energy physics experiment. Here the beam dynamics issues and analysis techniques essential to the g-2 experiment are presented and discussed.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2013

Task I: Dark Matter Search Experiments with Cryogenic Detectors: CDMS-I and CDMS-II Task II: Experimental Study of Neutrino Properties: EXO and KamLAND

Dark Matter Search - During the period of performance, our group continued the search for dark matter in the form of weakly interacting massive particles or WIMPs. As a key member of the CDMS (Cryogenic Dark Matter Search) collaboration, we completed the CDMS II experiment which led the field in sensitivity for more than five years. We fabricated all detectors, and participated in detector testing and verification. In addition, we participated in the construction and operation of the facility at the Soudan Underground Laboratory and played key roles in the data acquisition and analysis. Towards the end of the performance period, we began operating the SuperCDMS Soudan experiment, which consists of 15 advanced Ge (9 kg) detectors. The advanced detector design called iZIP grew out of our earlier DOE Particle Detector R&D program which demonstrated the rejection of surface electrons to levels where they are no longer the dominant source of background. Our group invented this advanced design and these larger detectors were fabricated on the Stanford campus in collaboration with the SLAC CDMS group and the Santa Clara University group. The sensitivity reach is expected to be up to 5 times better than CDMS II after two years of operation. We will check the new limits on WIMPs set by XENON100, and we expect improved sensitivity for light mass WIMPs beyond that of any other existing experiment. Our group includes the Spokesperson for SuperCDMS and continues to make important contributions to improvements in the detector technology which are enabling the very low trigger thresholds used to explore the low mass WIMP region. We are making detailed measurements of the charge transport and trapping within Ge crystals, measuring the diffusive trapping distance of the quasiparticle excitations within the Al phonon collector fins on the detector surface, and we are contributing to the development of much improved detector Monte Carlos which are essential to guide the detector design and optimize the analysis. Neutrino Physics – In the period of performance the neutrino group successfully completed the construction of EXO-200 and commissioned the detector. Science data taking started on Jun 1, 2011. With the discovery of the 2-neutrino double-beta decay in 136-Xe and the first measurement of the 0-neutrino mode resulting in the most stringent limit of Majorana masses, our group continues to be a leading innovator in the field of neutrino physics which is central to DOE-HEP Intensity Frontier program. The phenomenon of neutrino oscillations, in part elucidated by our earlier efforts with the Palo Verde and KamLAND experiments, provides the crucial information that neutrino masses are non-zero and, yet, it contains no information on the value of the neutrino mass scale. In recent times our group has therefore shifted its focus to a high sensitivity 0-neutrino double beta decay program, EXO. The 0-neutrino double beta decay provides the best chance of extending the sensitivity to the neutrino mass scale below 10 meV but, maybe more importantly, it tests the nature of the neutrino wave function, providing the most sensitive probe for Majorana particles and lepton number violation. The EXO program, formulated by our group several years ago, plans to use up to tonnes of the isotope 136-Xe to study the 0-neutrino double beta decay mode. The EXO-200 detector is the first step in this program and it represents the only large US-led and based experiment taking data. The EXO-200 isotope enrichment program broke new grounds for the enterprise of double beta decay. The detector design and material selection program paid off, resulting in a background that is among the very best in the field. The “first light" of EXO-200 was very exciting with the discovery -in the first month of data- of the rarest 2-neutrino double beta decay mode ever observed. The lower limit on the 0-neutrino double beta decay half-life, published in Phys. Rev. Lett. and based on the first 120 days of data is the second best but, when translated into a Majorana mass scale, it is one of the most stringent constraint we have on neutrino masses. Indeed, such a limit was the first result to contradict a claim of discovery in 76-Ge for most nuclear matrix elements calculations. As we continue data taking and plan some modest upgrades to EXO-200 our group is also very active in the design of nEXO, a 5 tonne detector based on the technology demonstrated by EXO-200. Over the years we have made it a tradition to explore the frontier and not to be shy about looking in new directions and re-inventing ourselves to best take advantage of the precious few opportunities provided by Nature. We have also cultivated a number of young people at all levels and, by now, many of the undergraduates, graduate students and postdocs educated by this group have leading positions in academia and industry around the world.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Development of Eulerian Code Modeling for ICF Experiments

One of the most pressing unexplained phenomena standing in the way of ICF ignition is understanding mix and how it interacts with burn. Experiments were being designed and fielded as part of the Defect-Induced Mix Experiment (DIME) project to obtain data about the extent of material mix and how this mix influenced burn. Experiments on the Omega laser and National Ignition Facility (NIF) provided detailed data for comparison to the Eulerian code RAGE1. The Omega experiments were able to resolve the mix and provide “proof of principle” support for subsequent NIF experiments, which were fielded from July 2012 through June 2013. The Omega shots were fired at least once per year between 2009 and 2012. RAGE was not originally designed to model inertial confinement fusion (ICF) implosions. It still lacks lasers, so the code has been validated using an energy source. To test RAGE, the simulation output is compared to data and by means of postprocessing tools that were developed. Here, the various postprocessing tools are described with illustrative examples.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

IMPULSE Highlights for recent experiments at the Advanced Photon Source (2/9-2/18 2014)

This report is a presentation, with slides noting, Over 40 experiments were completed during this run using X-ray imaging on the IMPULSE system at Sector 32 IDB; Summary of new experiments: Idealized sphere compaction – Capture progression of dynamic densification through an idealized system on 0.500 mm borosilicate glass spheres (Slide 1); Detonator and EBW Imaging Experiments on IMPULSE – First time HE was intentionally detonated at APS (Slide 2); Spall and high strain rate crack nucleation/propagation in PMMA – PCI data is providing new and unique insights for model validation (Slide 3); Fiber composite for armor applications was studied under ballistic impact of Dyneema (Collaboration with Army Research Laboratory) (Slide 4). Summary of on-going experiments; Crack propagation in vitreous carbon – observed crack motion and caustic; Jet formation experiments on large grain cerium to examine phase dependent strength; Ballistic impact of Comp-B and TNT to examine thermo-mechanical response in-situ with various penetrator geometries to vary shear concentration. Other efforts: IMPULSE system moved and installed in Sector 35 (DCS). This includes the 4-frame X-ray detection system, 4- channel PDV, and other gun diagnostics; New remotely operated mobile IMPULSE structure in fabrication – to be delivered to APS in April; 4 Mini-VISAR Systems and 4-channel PDV installed in DCS instrumentation room with all associated diagnostics.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2014

Neutrino Oscillation Parameter Sensitivity in Future Long-Baseline Experiments

The study of neutrino interactions and propagation has produced evidence for physics beyond the standard model and promises to continue to shed light on rare phenomena. Since the discovery of neutrino oscillations in the late 1990s there have been rapid advances in establishing the three flavor paradigm of neutrino oscillations. The 2012 discovery of a large value for the last unmeasured missing angle has opened the way for future experiments to search for charge-parity symmetry violation in the lepton sector. This thesis presents an analysis of the future sensitivity to neutrino oscillations in the three flavor paradigm for the T2K, NO A, LBNE, and T2HK experiments. The theory of the three flavor paradigm is explained and the methods to use these theoretical predictions to design long baseline neutrino experiments are described. The sensitivity to the oscillation parameters for each experiment is presented with a particular focus on the search for CP violation and the measurement of the neutrino mass hierarchy. The variations of these sensitivities with statistical considerations and experimental design optimizations taken into account are explored. The effects of systematic uncertainties in the neutrino flux, interaction, and detection predictions are also considered by incorporating more advanced simulations inputs from the LBNE experiment.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Electromagnetic calorimeter for the Heavy Photon Search Experiment at Jefferson Lab

The Heavy Photon Search Experiment (HPS) seeks to detect a hypothesised hidden sector boson, the A', predicted to be produced in dark matter decay or annihilation. Theories suggest that the A' couples weakly to electric charge through kinetic mixing, allowing it, as a result, to decay to Standard Matter (SM) lepton pair, which may explain the electron and positron excess recently observed in cosmic rays. Measuring the lepton pair decay of the A' could lead to indirect detection of dark matter. The HPS experiment is a fixed target experiment that will utilize the electron beam produced at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab). The detector set-up includes a silicon vertex tracker (SVT) and an Electromagnetic Calorimeter (ECal). The ECal will provide the trigger and detect e+e- pairs and its construction and testing forms the focus of this thesis. The ECal consists of 442 PbWO 4 - tapered crystals with a length 16cm and a 1.6x1.6cm 2 cross-section, stacked into a rectangular array and are coupled to Large Area APDs and corresponding pre-amplifiers. Supplementary to the ECal is a Light Monitoring System (LMS) consisting of bi-coloured LEDs that will monitor changes in APD gain and crystal transparency due to radiation damage. Before construction of the ECal each of the components were required to be individually tested to determine a number of different characteristics. Irradiation tests were performed on PbWO 4 ECal crystals and, as a comparison, one grown by a different manufacturer to determine their radiation hardness. A technique for annealing the radiation damage by optical bleaching, which involves injecting light of various wavelengths into the crystal, was tested using the blue LED from the LMS as a potential candidate. The light yield dependence on temperature was also measured for one of the PbWO 4 crystal types. Each APD was individually tested to determine if they functioned correctly and within the requirements of the experiment, then arranged into groups of similar gain at chosen applied voltages, for connection to High Voltage (HV) supplies. Each bi-coloured LED was also tested to determine if they functioned within the specifications of the experiment; including their signal quality at high frequency and their radiation hardness. The HPS crystals were recycled from a previous Jefferson Lab detector, the Inner Calorimeter from CLAS, which needed to be dismantled and reconditioned using various removal and cleaning techniques. The HPS ECal was then constructed in a new formation using a combination of different gluing and construction techniques, and initial functionality tests were performed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Lattice design of the integrable optics test accelerator and optical stochastic cooling experiment at Fermilab

The Integrable Optics Test Accelerator (IOTA) storage ring at Fermilab will serve as the backbone for a broad spectrum of Advanced Accelerator R&D (AARD) experiments, and as such, must be designed with signi cant exibility in mind, but without compromising cost e ciency. The nonlinear experiments at IOTA will include: achievement of a large nonlinear tune shift/spread without degradation of dynamic aperture; suppression of strong lattice resonances; study of stability of nonlinear systems to perturbations; and studies of di erent variants of nonlinear magnet design. The ring optics control has challenging requirements that reach or exceed the present state of the art. The development of a complete self-consistent design of the IOTA ring optics, meeting the demands of all planned AARD experiments, is presented. Of particular interest are the precise control for nonlinear integrable optics experiments and the transverse-to-longitudinal coupling and phase stability for the Optical Stochastic Cooling Experiment (OSC). Since the beam time-of- ight must be tightly controlled in the OSC section, studies of second order corrections in this section are presented.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Observation of Electron Neutrino Appearance in the NuMI Beam with the NOvA Experiment

NOvA is a long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment that uses two functionally identical detectors separated by 810 kilometers at locations 14 milliradians off-axis from the NuMI muon neutrino beam at Fermilab. At these locations the beam energy peaks at 2 GeV. This baseline is the longest in the world for an accelerator-based neutrino oscillation experiment, which enhances the sensitivity to the neutrino mass ordering. The experiment studies oscillations of the muon neutrino and anti-neutrino beam that is produced. Both detectors completed commissioning in the summer of 2014 and continue to collect data. One of the primary physics goals of the experiment is the measurement of electron neutrino appearance in the muon neutrino beam which yields measurements of the oscillation parameters sin 2 2θ 13 , δ , and the neutrino mass ordering within the standard model of neutrino oscillations. This thesis presents the analysis of data collected between February 2014 and May 2015, corresponding to 3.52 X 10 20 protons-on-target. In this first analysis NOvA recorded 6 electron neutrino candidates, which is a 3.3σ observation of electron neutrino appearance. The T2K experiment performs the same measurement on a baseline of 295 kilometers and has a 1 σ preference for the normal mass ordering over the inverted ordering over the phase space of the CP violating parameter δ, which is also weakly seen in the NOvA result. By the summer of 2016 NOvA will triple its statistics due to increased beam power and a completed detector. If electron neutrinos continue to be observed at the current rate NOvA will be able to establish a mass ordering preference at a similar confidence level to T2K.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Retrospective North American CFL Experience Curve Analysis and Correlation to Deployment Programs

Retrospective experience curves are a useful tool for understanding historic technology development, and can contribute to investment program analysis and future cost estimation efforts. This work documents our development of an analysis approach for deriving retrospective experience curves with a variable learning rate, and its application to develop an experience curve for compact fluorescent lamps for the global and North American markets over the years 1990-2007. Uncertainties and assumptions involved in interpreting data for our experience curve development are discussed, including the processing and transformation of empirical data, the selection of system boundaries, and the identification of historical changes in the learning rate over the course of 15 years. In the results that follow, we find that that the learning rate has changed at least once from 1990-2007. We also explore if, and to what degree, public deployment programs may have contributed to an increased technology learning rate in North America. We observe correlations between the changes in the learning rate and the initiation of new policies, abrupt technological advances, including improvements to ballast technology, and economic and political events such as trade tariffs and electricity prices. Finally, we discuss how the findings of this work (1) support the use of segmented experience curves for retrospective and prospective analysis and (2) may imply that investments in technological research and development have contributed to a change in market adoption and penetration.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2016

Norwegian Young Sea Ice Experiment (N-ICE) Field Campaign Report

The Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N-ICE) experiment was conducted aboard the R/V Lance research vessel from January through June 2015. The primary purpose of the experiment was to better understand thin, first-year sea ice. This includes understanding of how different components of the Arctic system affect sea ice, but also how changing sea ice affects the system. A major part of this effort is to characterize the atmospheric conditions throughout the experiment. A micropulse lidar (MPL) (S/N: 108) was deployed from the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility as part of the atmospheric suite of instruments. The MPL operated successfully throughout the entire experiment, acquiring data from 21 January 2015 through 23 June 2015. The MPL was the essential instrument for determining the phase (water, ice or mixed) of the lower-level clouds over the sea ice. Data obtained from the MPL during the N-ICE experiment show large cloud fractions over young, thin Arctic sea ice from January through June 2015 (north of Svalbard). The winter season was characterized by frequent synoptic storms and large fluctuations in the near-surface temperature. There was much less synoptic activity in spring and summer as the near-surface temperature rose to 0 C. The cloud fraction was lower in winter (60%) than in the spring and summer (80%). Supercooled liquid clouds were observed for most of the deployment, appearing first in mid-February. Spring and summer clouds were characterized by low, thick, uniform clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗