Results for “Economic Model” — Page 79

DOE OSTI2025

More land is needed for solar and wind infrastructure under a high renewables scenario in the Western US by 2050

Expanding United States electricity infrastructure to meet growing demand could require extensive power plant development footprints and land use conversion, depending on the mix of generation types chosen. Understanding where future power plant sitings are likely to take place and identifying potential conflicts and land-use tradeoffs will be key to identifying feasible and affordable investments and evaluating regional planning coordination needs. Here we use an integrated modeling framework that combines capacity expansion planning, hourly grid operations, and geospatial techno-economic analysis to develop projections (2025-2050) of power plant sitings in the Western United States (US) at a 1 km 2 resolution for a business-as-usual scenario and a high renewables penetration scenario. We find that 30% more land will be needed in the high renewables scenario as compared to business-as-usual, and that 75% of that development is projected to be located within 10 km of natural areas.

Mongird, Kendall [Pacific Northwest National Labor↗

DOE OSTI2025

UV-Vis spectrophotometric determination of rare earth elements (REE) speciation at near-neutral to alkaline pH. Part II: hydrolysis of Er from 25 to 75 °C

Aqueous speciation of rare earth elements (REE) controls their mobilization, fractionation, and enrichment in the natural waters. Geochemical modeling of their speciation is key to improve our understanding of the formation of economic mineral deposits, for developing mineral separation and mine tailing recovery technologies, and for characterizing the geochemistry of thermal water. However, our ability to predict the fate of REE in a wide pH and temperature range is limited by the scarcity of thermodynamic data for the REE hydroxyl complexes. In part I of this study (H. J. Han and A. P. Gysi, Dalton Trans., 2024, 53, 13129–13141), the optical properties of m-cresol purple (mCP) were determined using UV-Vis spectrophotometry between 25 and 75 °C in order to develop a method for deriving the hydrolysis constants of erbium (Er). Here, UV-Vis spectrophotometry experiments were conducted as a function of temperature between 35 and 75 °C to determine the hydrolysis of Er in near-neutral to alkaline solutions using mCP as an in situ pH color indicator. Here, the experiments were conducted with Er concentrations from 0 to ~0.253 mmol kg –1 in low ionic strength solutions (≤0.001 mol kg –1 ).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels: 2020 State of Technology

Data from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s conversion hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) program for wet waste was used to update the pathway techno-economic analysis (TEA) for the fiscal year 2020 State of Technology (2020 SOT). The modeled fuel blendstock MFSP for the 2020 SOT is estimated at $4.50/GGE (with ammonia stripping of the AP), a reduction of $0.61/GGE, or 12%, relative to the 2019 SOT (Snowden-Swan et al. 2020). Progress in the HTL area includes increased reactor LHSV from 3.6 to 4.0 and a newly designed staged approach for the sludge pumping and heating, resulting in a 1 cent and 26 cent reduction in modeled MFSP, respectively. The newly designed heat exchanger configuration is less material and capital intensive than the previous SOT, and provides a system design that is more scalable with regard to practical fabrication limitations. Further improvements may be possible with the use of core inserts to enhance tube velocity and heat transfer rates. Biocrude hydrotreating research progress improved weight hourly space velocity (WHSV) from 0.67 to 0.72 hr-1 in the guard bed and from 0.39 to 1.02 hr-1 in the main hydrotreating bed, a 7% and 162% improvement, respectively. Hydrotreating performance was not sacrificed at the higher throughput rates and catalyst activity remained stable over the run. The demonstrated increase in WHSVs reduced the modeled MFSP by $0.34/GGE.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2024

FECM/NETL Natural Gas with Hydrogen Pipeline Cost Model (2024): Description and User’s Manual

This is the user’s manual for The FECM/NETL Natural Gas with Hydrogen Pipeline Cost Model (NG-H2_P_COM) that estimates costs for transporting gaseous hydrogen with natural gas in a pipeline from a source, such as a hydrogen production facility, to a final destination which may be a user of the hydrogen and natural gas or a distribution center where hydrogen in the pipeline with natural gas is diverted to multiple end users. This user’s manual provides two main functions. First, the detailed statement describes the equations and algorithms that are used by the model to calculate technical quantities (such as blend hydrogen percentage, reuse percentage of the pipeline and stations, the pipe diameter size and length needed to transport a user-specified hydrogen with natural gas rate in a specified distance) and engineering-economic quantities (such as capital costs, operating costs, and cash flows). Second, the document is a user’s manual for the model that describes the procedures the user must follow to configure and setup the model, run the model, analyze the results, and visualize the outcomes. Such details offer user a quick and handy way to utilize the model for their application and decision making. The model can be accessed at this URL: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=cf3f6564-3c55-4aa5-b712-7160e558d9f6. The Model Results and Comparative Analysis can be accessed here: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=83862799-a28c-4944-a809-90b7e23d4af6.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the economic impacts of using enzymatic membranes to optimize bicarbonate production and delivery to open raceway ponds

Gas sparging is the most commonly used method for delivering CO2 to algal cultures in Open Raceway Ponds (ORPs). While this method is well-tested and effective, these systems experience large amounts of outgassing to the surrounding atmosphere and often achieve carbon utilization efficiencies (CUE) lower than 30%. With such large losses, system are overdesigned to provide CO2 gas in extreme excess, resulting in increased capital and operational expenses. This research is focused on the development, testing, and implementation of a hydrogel membrane seeded with the enzyme carbonic anhydrase and designed to convert gaseous CO2 into aqueous bicarbonate and deliver this inorganic carbon (iC) directly to the algae pond. Despite increased capital expenses for the module, bicarbonate storage tank, and added pumps and infrastructure, preliminary results suggest that the membrane module has the potential to reduce the minimum biomass selling price by 35% by significantly reducing the operational expenditure for CO2.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Design, Synthesis, and Validation: Genome Scale Optimization of Energy Flux through Compartmentalized Metabolic Networks in a Model Photosynthetic Eukaryotic Microbe (Final Report)

Photosynthetic organisms have recently gained considerable attention for a role in development of renewable energy sources. Genome-enabled systems biology methodology and modeling, coupled with high throughput genome engineering strategies, present opportunities to develop sustainable and economical applications such as fuel production within the next 10 to 15 years. However, optimization of light-driven metabolism for biomass or biofuel production will require significant advances in methodological throughput as well as improvements in detailed systems biology understanding of photosynthetic processes and cellular metabolism. The ability of diatoms to thrive in upwelling-induced, periodically nutrient-rich conditions makes them the base for the world’s shortest and most energy-efficient food webs. Diatom photosynthesis is estimated to account for between 25% and 40% of the 45-50 billion tons of organic carbon fixed annually in the sea.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Site-specific Design Case Study for Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Watching for light: An enterprise roadmap for trustworthy laser threat warning (LTW) to protect national assets

Comprehensive space force protection must include effective and trustworthy laser threat warning (LTW). Effective LTW will detect and characterize threats to space assets and thus enhance space deterrence. LTW must be trustworthy: able to categorize threats and non-threats by being both sensitive to true events and resistant to false alarms. Outside of the laboratory, the statistics and even the roles of lasers become unclear. In the chain of events leading to an attack, the laser may be the last link to be understood. Human situational awareness and informal reasoning must blend statistics with circumstantial evidence to visualize these chains before they are clear. This paper sets out an industrial model for an enterprise that will routinely produce trustworthy LTW. By incorporating psychology and economics, this enterprise can overcome the difficulties and perils of cooperation in networked defense and intelligence. This roadmap suggests how the enterprise can incentivize distracted actors with different goals to share what they know and coordinate what they do.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2024

Supporting data for Site-specific Design Case Study for Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.

Li, Shuyun↗

DOE OSTI2026

Strategies for using membrane-based separations to extract critical metals from waste streams

Critical metals are currently extracted by mining followed by their purification. These processes are costly and not environmentally very desirable. In this perspective paper we discuss the potential of extracting these critical metals from a range waste-streams available in abundance globally. These waste streams include brine from desalination plants, effluents from oil drilling and hydraulic fracturing, as well as discharges from various industrial processes such as metal finishing, electroplating, mining, and chemical manufacturing. We show that with a range of new separation processes being developed their separation is showing potential of being both technologically and economically feasible. We also show how high performance computing can be combined with computational models to screen and accelerate the development of new technologies for extracting critical metals from waste streams.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1981

The utilization of nonterrestrial materials

The development of research and technology programs on the user of nonterrestrial materials for space applications was considered with emphasis on the space power satellite system as a model of large space systems for which the use of nonterrestrial materials may be economically viable. Sample topics discussed include the mining of raw materials and the conversion of raw materials into useful products. These topics were considered against a background of the comparative costs of using terrestrial materials. Exploratory activities involved in the preparation of a nonterrestrial materials utilization program, and the human factors involved were also addressed. Several recommendations from the workshop are now incorporated in NASA activities.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1986

Follow-on proposal identifying environmental features for land management decisions

Urban morphology (an examination of spatial fabric and structure), natural ecosystem (investigations emphasizing biophysical processes and patterns), and human ecosystem (emphasizing socio-economic and engineering parameters) were studied. The most critical variable, transpiration, in the ASPCON model, created by Jaynes (1978), describing the hydrology of aspen to conifer succession was studied to improve the accuracy. Transpiration is determined by a canopy transpiration model which estimates consumptive water use (CWU) for specific species and a plant activity index. Also studied was Pinyon-Juniper woodland erosion.

Wright, P. M.↗

NASA NTRS1987

An efficient frequency response solution for nonproportionally damped systems

A method is presented to accurately and economically calculate steady state frequency responses based on the analysis of large finite element models with nonproportional damping effects. The new method is a hybrid of the traditional nonproportional and proportional damping solution methods. It captures the advantages of each computational approach without the burden of their respective shortcomings, as demonstrated with comparative analysis performed on a large finite element model.

Conti, Paul↗

NASA NTRS1992

Repair-level analysis for Space Station Freedom

To assign repair or discard-at-failure designations for orbital replacement units (ORUs) used on Space Station Freedom Electric Power System (SSFEPS), new algorithms and methods were required. Unique parameters, such as upmass costs, extravehicular activity costs and intravehicular activity (IVA) costs specific to Space Station Freedom's maintenance concept were incorporated into the Repair-Level Analysis (RLA). Additional outputs were also required of the SSFEPS RLA that were not required of previous RLAs. These outputs included recommendations for the number of launches that an ORU should be capable of attaining and an economic basis for condemnation rate. These unique parameters were not addressable using existing RLA models: therefore, a new approach was developed. In addition, it was found that preemptive analysis could be performed using spreadsheet-based Boolean expressions to represent the logical condition of the items under analysis.

Chadwick, M.↗

NASA NTRS1988

An alternative to Guyan reduction of finite-element models

Structural modeling is a key part of structural system identification for large space structures. Finite-element structural models are commonly used in practice because of their general applicability and availability. The initial models generated by using a standard computer program such as NASTRAN, ANSYS, SUPERB, STARDYNE, STRUDL, etc., generally contain tens of thousands of degrees of freedom. The models must be reduced for purposes of identification. Not only does the magnitude of the identification effort grow exponentially as a function of the number of degrees of freedom, but numerical procedures may also break down because of accumulated round-off errors. Guyan reduction is usually applied after a static condensation. Misapplication of Guyan reduction can lead to serious modeling errors. It is quite unfortunate and disappointing, since the accuracy of the original detailed finite-element model one tries very hard to achieve is lost by the reduction. First, why and how Guyan reduction always causes loss of accuracy is examined. An alternative approach is then introduced. The alternative can be thought of as an improvement of Guyan reduction, the Rayleigh-Ritz method, and in particular the recent algorithm of Wilson, Yuan, and Dickens. Unlike Guyan reduction, the use of the alternative does not need any special insight, experience, or skill for partitioning the structural degrees of freedom. In addition to model condensation, this alternative approach can also be used for predicting analytically, quickly, and economically, what are those structural modes that are excitable by a force actuator at a given trial location. That is, in the excitation of the structural modes for identification, it can be used for guiding the placement of the force actuators.

Lin, Jiguan Gene↗

NASA NTRS1993

The quantum dynamics of electronically nonadiabatic chemical reactions

Considerable progress was achieved on the quantum mechanical treatment of electronically nonadiabatic collisions involving energy transfer and chemical reaction in the collision of an electronically excited atom with a molecule. In the first step, a new diabatic representation for the coupled potential energy surfaces was created. A two-state diabatic representation was developed which was designed to realistically reproduce the two lowest adiabatic states of the valence bond model and also to have the following three desirable features: (1) it is more economical to evaluate; (2) it is more portable; and (3) all spline fits are replaced by analytic functions. The new representation consists of a set of two coupled diabatic potential energy surfaces plus a coupling surface. It is suitable for dynamics calculations on both the electronic quenching and reaction processes in collisions of Na(3p2p) with H2. The new two-state representation was obtained by a three-step process from a modified eight-state diatomics-in-molecules (DIM) representation of Blais. The second step required the development of new dynamical methods. A formalism was developed for treating reactions with very general basis functions including electronically excited states. Our formalism is based on the generalized Newton, scattered wave, and outgoing wave variational principles that were used previously for reactive collisions on a single potential energy surface, and it incorporates three new features: (1) the basis functions include electronic degrees of freedom, as required to treat reactions involving electronic excitation and two or more coupled potential energy surfaces; (2) the primitive electronic basis is assumed to be diabatic, and it is not assumed that it diagonalizes the electronic Hamiltonian even asymptotically; and (3) contracted basis functions for vibrational-rotational-orbital degrees of freedom are included in a very general way, similar to previous prescriptions for locally adiabatic functions in various quantum scattering algorithms.

Truhlar, Donald G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Computations of Wall Distances Based on Differential Equations

The use of differential equations such as Eikonal, Hamilton-Jacobi and Poisson for the economical calculation of the nearest wall distance d, which is needed by some turbulence models, is explored. Modifications that could palliate some turbulence-modeling anomalies are also discussed. Economy is of especial value for deforming/adaptive grid problems. For these, ideally, d is repeatedly computed. It is shown that the Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi equations can be easy to implement when written in implicit (or iterated) advection and advection-diffusion equation analogous forms, respectively. These, like the Poisson Laplacian term, are commonly occurring in CFD solvers, allowing the re-use of efficient algorithms and code components. The use of the NASA CFL3D CFD program to solve the implicit Eikonal and Hamilton-Jacobi equations is explored. The re-formulated d equations are easy to implement, and are found to have robust convergence. For accurate Eikonal solutions, upwind metric differences are required. The Poisson approach is also found effective, and easiest to implement. Modified distances are not found to affect global outputs such as lift and drag significantly, at least in common situations such as airfoil flows.

Tucker, Paul G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Theorizing Land Cover and Land Use Changes: The Case of Tropical Deforestation

This article addresses land-cover and land-use dynamics from the perspective of regional science and economic geography. It first provides an account of the so-called spatially explicit model, which has emerged in recent years as a key empirical approach to the issue. The article uses this discussion as a springboard to evaluate the potential utility of von Thuenen to the discourse on land-cover and land-use change. After identifying shortcomings of current theoretical approaches to land use in mainly urban models, the article filters a discussion of deforestation through the lens of bid-rent and assesses its effectiveness in helping us comprehend the destruction of tropical forest in the Amazon basin. The article considers the adjustments that would have to be made to existing theory to make it more useful to the empirical issues.

Walker, Robert↗