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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2023

Storing Co 2 in Built Infrastructure: Co 2 Carbonation of Precast Concrete Products

The overall objective of the proposed study was to advance the technical understanding of CO 2 incorporation into novel cementitious materials for the development of high value products that provide a net reduction in carbon emissions. This project combined two primary phases of research that addressed technical barriers related to (i) optimizing CO 2 storage capability of cementitious materials, (ii) evaluating and enhancing physical properties of novel carbonated materials, and (iii) assessing the reductions in life cycle CO 2 emissions attributed to CO 2 carbonation of precast cementitious materials. Engineered cementitious composites (ECC) are a class of highly ductile concrete composites that have been shown to be very durable when used in the built environment. CO 2 carbonation of ECC was examined in this study and it was found that precast ECC specimens could sequester up to 35% CO 2 by cement mass after 24 hours of curing at a CO 2 pressure of 0.5 MPa and 23°C and had a strain capacity of 3%. Carbonation conditions were optimized at the bench-scale and then utilized to create full-scale CO 2 -cured ECC railroad ties that were field tested on a train track. Rail ties were selected for this initial assessment of CO 2 storage in precast concrete materials due to the large market for concrete ties in the railroad industry. Although the full-scale rail ties passed all of the required American Railway Engineering and Maintenance-of-Way Association qualifying mechanical tests, on-track testing of the CO 2 -cured ECC rail ties was unsuccessful due to fiber alignment in the ECC the during the rail tie casting process which prevented the material from achieving the expected level of strain capacity. This result highlights the challenge in scaling up bench-scale processes to full-scale product manufacturing and requires additional investigation into the casting process of large-scale infrastructure elements using ECC combined with carbonation curing. Life cycle assessment of a CO 2 -cured ECC rail tie versus a traditional concrete rail tie indicates that the ECC tie can have lifecycle carbon savings of between 11% and 51% depending on how much longer its useful lifetime is compared to traditional concrete rail ties. Both carbon and cost savings are driven by a reduction in the need to replace broken rail ties, so the key factor is the extent to which a CO 2 -cured ECC rail tie will have increased lifetime durability compared to alternative rail ties.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Management of the Three Mile Island, Unit 2, Accident Corium and Severely Damaged Fuel Debris

The Three Mile Island, Unit Two (TMI-2) pressurized water reactor core melted down in 1979 due to an untimely combination of maintenance problems that led to a loss of feedwater, followed by a series of operational misunderstandings and errors. The melted core recovery process required development of a wide array of tools. After approximately three years of water management and other cleanup actions, the first views of the core revealed a much higher degree of damage than previously expected. Approximately 62 metric tons of the core had melted, leaving only 42 of the 177 fuel assemblies standing with a majority of rods intact. The core to be recovered was composed of loose debris and a solidified mass of formerly molten fuel. Robotic tools that had been designed for the task were of limited effectiveness due to the range of material types and phases. Over a period of several years, the central melt was broken up, primarily by use of a core-boring drill originally designed to acquire samples through the depth of the debris field. The broken pieces were loaded into specially designed debris canisters by use of long-handled pick-and-place tools and suctioned into baffled knockout canisters using an airlift vacuum system. A remotely operable underwater plasma arc torch was developed for removal of the lower core support structure to be able to retrieve the fuel pieces and secondary melt that had accumulated on the bottom reactor vessel head. Canister design played a central role in defining the initial retrieval process and later affected transportation, interim wet and its current interim dry storage. Due to concerns about the potential for radiolysis of residual water in the debris and other canister material, the canisters were fitted with hydrogen recombiner catalyst units to prevent a buildup of flammable gas and potential pressurization. To confirm the effectiveness of the recombiners during shipping, eight dewatered canisters were kept sealed for up to 205 days with periodic sampling of the headspace gas. The highest hydrogen value (9 vol%) was observed in a canister held for 147 days while the longest stored canister resulted in a 5% hydrogen concentration. The oxygen concentration never exceeded 0.5 %, and the primary backfill was >80% argon, meaning there was no flammability risk. Radiolytic hydrogen was also observed in wet pool storage, where the vented canisters discharged a portion of the water backfill as a result of gas production. The 344 canisters (268 fuel debris, 62 filter, and 12 knockout type) were dewatered, loaded in groups of seven into a double barrier shipping cask, and transported to the U.S. Department of Energy site in Idaho for 10 years of pool storage.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Value proposition of coatings or new alloys on hammer wear

The goal of this Case Study was to elucidate the value of improving of the life of parts that wear within a system in terms of the additional material cost that it takes to reach the level of improvement. We recognize that the failure limits and system performance are representative of a single system that may or may not exist in the real world, however, our goal of this project was not to provide an answer for a specific system or to provide a full understanding the economics of all potential systems. The analysis was performed using relative changes from the base alloy cost and considered relative improvements in part life in order to generalize the comparison without referencing specific alloys or coatings that might be employed. Ultimately, this work provides a first check of the potential for improving wear characteristics of grinder hammers to provide a meaningful and impactful benefit to biomass preprocessing and conversion systems. Key takeaways include: • Increasing the life of hammers by 3× provides a delivered feedstock cost benefit of approximately $\$2.25$/dry ton assuming that the relative cost of the hammer material of construction is not increased. • The feasible area of relative hammer cost increase ranges from 110% to 122% of the relative life increase, i.e., a 3× life increase can cost 3.66× the cost of the original hammers • Beyond a 3× increase in relative hammer life, little economic benefit is realized • Even when moisture impacts are included, the relationship between relative hammer cost and relative hammer life was reduced only slightly to a range of 108% to 116% • From the simulation we would expect delivered feedstock costs to be within ±$1.10/dry ton, based on the uncertainty analysis

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Human-in-the-loop Sensing and Control for Commercial Building Energy Efficiency and Occupant Comfort

Most of the existing heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in commercial buildings operate in a conservative manner by assuming maximum occupancy in each room during pre-specified periods of the week, leading to significant energy being wasted as rooms are over-conditioned compared to the actual requirements of the occupants. Though critical, our understanding of occupancy patterns and thermal comfort needs of the occupants in commercial buildings is lacking and it is well known that both of these quantities are stochastic and time-varying, thus requiring sensing solutions to estimate them. This project had the goal of designing, implementing and evaluating a hardware and software solution to ameliorate this challenge. In particular, a depth camera (one whose pixels reveal distance from the camera as opposed to color values) placed on doorways is used to detect entrance and exit events from thermal zones in the building, and thereby estimate their occupancy levels. This information is then fed to a novel control algorithm that can, through interactions with the HVAC system, learn how to provide control inputs that maximize comfort and minimize energy waste. The resulting system represents a significant improvement over existing controllers for commercial HVAC systems and allowed us to improve our understanding of the design of future human-in-the-loop control solutions. For this solution to be feasible, the project had target metrics for its performance and cost. In particular, entrance and exit events for occupants moving about the building would need to be detected with an accuracy higher than 97%; and the resulting control inputs derived from this information would need to lead to approximately 10% energy savings compared to a schedule-based controller. Furthermore, regarding the final hardware design, the project had a target bill of materials (BOM) cost for the sensing solution of less than US$200 per unit while using less than 25W of power on average. All of these target metrics were met or exceeded by our final proposed solution. We performed evaluations by deploying the system in over 20 rooms of different types across 6 commercial buildings in Pittsburgh, PA over the course of three years, and performing targeted controlled experiments to test its performance along the different metrics. The human-in-the-loop control solutions (both hardware and software) developed through this project are expected to lead to significant improvements in the comfort and energy efficiency of HVAC systems used in commercial buildings. The insights we developed through the project pave the way to HVAC systems that can condition interior spaces according to their real-time utilization and the thermal comfort needs of the occupants, thereby reducing energy use. They also open up a new learning-based way of configuring HVAC controllers without having to manually fine-tune them for each building. These innovations can significantly increase the adoption of novel control solutions by the industry and thereby save resources and reduce costs of operation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Upcycling of Mixed Aluminum Alloy Shredder Scrap using Shear Processing

Conservation of critical materials is an increasing area of focus in the Unites States. In 2023, aluminum was added to the US Department of Energy Final Critical Materials List which has spurred public and private research into sustainable management of these resources. Additionally, efficiency in manufacturing and conservation of natural resources are growing concerns with targets to lower global carbon emissions, as primary aluminum alloy production is energy intensive, requiring 14 MWh of electricity plus 0.4 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of Al. Due to these factors, is essential that more sustainable manufacturing methods for aluminum alloys are developed going forward. To this end, much research is ongoing on the topic of more efficient utilization and recovery. However, most of this research still requires primary aluminum in the production process. Here, it will be attempted to bypass the use of primary aluminum and produce useful material recycled from 100% post-consumer scrap. Even considering recent developments in recycling of Al scrap, there is still a large amount of post-consumer scrap that is underutilized due to high impurity content, and that amount will increase significantly as more and more aluminum alloys are utilized in vehicles. This “scrap wave” is expected to cover 80% of the demand for automotive aluminum alloys by 2050 . A challenge to be addressed before the coming scrap wave can be fully utilized is that the tolerance of manufacturing techniques to impurities or off-spec alloy compositions must be increased. Particularly, in 5000-and 6000-series alloys (the most common wrought alloys in durable products), excess iron, copper, and silicon create brittle intermetallics during casting that remain in the extruded microstructure which limit the formability, ductility, and corrosion resistance of the alloy. Concerningly, many of the highest-volume post-consumer aluminum scrap streams such as automotive shredder scrap contain a mix of alloys including both wrought and cast alloys. Their compositions can vary widely depending on geography and the time of year. Because they are mixed, they often contain high content of multiple alloying elements such as Si and Cu in higher concentrations than are found in typical wrought alloys. They may also be contaminated with non-Al alloys from fasteners that get mixed in and often have high content of unwanted elements such as Fe. As a method for utilizing these underused scrap streams that are high in tramp elements, an emerging extrusion technology is being developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) that aims to upcycle 100% post-consumer aluminum scrap directly into extruded components without the addition of primary aluminum . This new technology, called Shear Assisted Processing and Extrusion (ShAPE), is enabling a shift away from today’s recycling paradigm by reaching deeper into lower-value scrap streams, using shredder scrap as the extrusion billet material. Sometimes referred to as Twitch or Tweak, these scrap streams result from shredding and sorting of automobiles, building materials, appliances, and consumer goods. ShAPE combines the linear axis of conventional extrusion with a rotating extrusion die. This rotating die applies large strain to the material during extrusion, which breaks up large impurity-containing intermetallic particles, reducing their deleterious effects. This has been demonstrated for 6063 machining scrap spiked with excess Fe, and Twitch scrap high in Fe, Si and Cu where strength and ductility were retained for both feedstock compositions. Additionally, the extreme plastic deformation during ShAPE enables extrusion of billets with high Si that are too brittle for processing by conventional extrusion. By using 100% post-consumer shedder scrap as feedstock, ShAPE has the potential to slash embodied energy and carbon in extruded components by >80% compared to conventional extrusion of primary aluminum alloys.

Milligan, Brian K.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessment of Core Physics Characteristics of Extended Enrichment and Higher Burnup LWR Fuels using the Polaris/PARCS Two-Step Approach. Vol. I: PWR Fuel

Nuclear fuel with extended enrichment (235U enrichment within 5-8 wt%) is one of the evolutionary changes that have been pursued in recent years by commercial light water reactor operators and fuel vendors to improve the fuel cycle economy and operation performance of a nuclear plant. This work assesses the performance of the Polaris/PARCS two-step approach in core physics modeling of the pressurized water reactor cores with extended enrichment fuel, referred to as “LEU+” in this report. A representative LEU+ core with a 24-month fuel cycle developed by Southern Nuclear Company (SNC) was modeled using this two-step approach. A representative LEU core with an 18-month fuel cycle was also modeled to provide a reference for the LEU+ core. As expected, significantly more burnable poison absorbers were used in the LEU+ core to accomodate its higher fuel enrichment. Nine different fuel assembly types were modeled using Polaris for each core to generate the assembly cross sections, which were then processed by GenPMAX to prepare the cross-section data for PARCS. The average specific powers of each fuel batch in each core were derived from VERA results and higher specific powers in fresh assemblies were found in the LEU core due to its less total uranium loading included in the VERA LEU model, given that the total core power was assumed to be the same for both cores. PARCS models were developed to simulate the steady-state operations of both cores. PARCS results on the LEU+ core were first compared with the VERA results for verification purpose; good agreements were seen in soluble boron and burnup distribution results, indicating that the Polaris/PARCS modeling and simulation were correctly implemented. Core physics parameters calculated by PARCS, at zero power physics tests, beginning of cycle (BOC), and end of cycle conditions (EOC), were compared between the LEU+ core and the LEU core, including soluble boron concentration, burnup distributions, assembly and pin power peaking factors, fuel temperature reactivity coefficients, moderator temperature and density reactivity coefficients, control rod worth, and shut down margin. The main differences in PARCS results between the LEU+ and the LEU cores are summarized below: 1)The critical boron concentrations were found to be much higher in the LEU+ core than in the LEU core (1582 vs. 1335 ppm for peak values). 2)Higher assembly radial power peaking factors (1.4 vs. 1.3 for peak values), 2D pin peaking factors (1.53 vs. 1.42 for peak values), and 3D pin peaking factors (1.89 vs. 1.81 for peak values) were found in the LEU+ core than in the LEU core. 3)Significantly higher reactivity coefficients of moderator temperature (and density) were found in LEU+ than in LEU.4)Significantly lower control rod worth at EOC were found in LEU+ than LEU for all but one control banks.5)Significantly lower shut down margins were found in the LEU+ core than in the LEU core. The Polaris/GenPMAX/PARCS code suite was found to be capable of modeling the LEU+ PWR core for steady-state operations and no unexpected results in core physics parameters were observed, in spite of that a) several bugs in PARCS were identified and workarounds were used; b) several features were found lacking in the current version of PARCS that would be useful for core modeling. A list of requests for bug fixes and feature upgrades for PARCS originated from this work were transmitted to the code developers. The assessments on the performance of the Polaris/PARCS two-step approach in core modeling for boiling water reactor with LEU+ fuel is ongoing.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Retrieval of the sea spray aerosol mode from submicron particle size distributions and supermicron scattering during LASIC

Abstract. Improved quantification of sea spray aerosol concentration and size is important for determining aerosol effects on clouds and the climate, though attempts to accurately capture the size distribution of the sea spray mode remain limited by the availability of supermicron size distributions. In this work, we introduce a new approach to retrieving lognormal mode fit parameters for a sea spray aerosol mode by combining submicron size distributions with supermicron scattering measurements using a Mie inversion. Submicron size distributions were measured by an ultra-high-sensitivity aerosol spectrometer (UHSAS), and supermicron scattering was taken as the difference between <10 µm and <1 µm three-wavelength integrating nephelometer measurements (NEPH). This UHSAS-NEPH method was applied during background marine periods of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign on Ascension Island (November 2016–May 2017), when the contribution of sea spray aerosol was expected to represent a large fraction of the aerosol mass and total scattering. Lognormal sea spray modal parameters were retrieved from comparisons between nephelometer measurements and a lookup table of Mie theory-simulated scattering coefficients for low-error solutions that minimized the 0.4–1 µm residual in the UHSAS size distribution. We evaluated the UHSAS-NEPH method with a set of clean marine measurements in the North Atlantic that included supermicron size and chemical measurements, showing that measured supermicron size distributions are needed to constrain the sea spray number concentration but that mass concentration was reasonably characterized using supermicron scattering. For LASIC, the UHSAS-NEPH method retrieved sea spray mode properties for approximately 88 % of the background marine times when the scattering variability and total particle concentration were low (<± 5 Mm−1 and <400 cm−3, respectively), with mass mean diameter ranging from 0.6 to 1.9 µm (1.47 ± 0.17 µm), modal width ranging from 1.1 to 3.97 (2.4±0.3), and mass concentration ranging from 0.18 to 23.0 µg m−3 (8.37. ± 4.1 µg m−3). The measured nephelometer scattering at three wavelengths was found to constrain the mode width marginally at the largest particle sizes in the absence of additional size and chemical measurements for defining parameters for the Mie solutions. Comparing UHSAS-NEPH retrievals to those of a fitting algorithm applied only to the submicron UHSAS number size distribution showed that correlations between retrieved mass concentration and the available mass-based sea spray tracers (coarse scattering, wind speed, and chloride) are low when supermicron measurements are not considered. This work demonstrates the added value of supermicron scattering measurements for retrieving reasonable sea spray mass concentrations, providing the best-available observationally constrained estimate of the sea spray mode properties when supermicron size distribution measurements are not available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Demonstrate new plasticity models for doped UO 2 that capture dislocation mechanisms

In light water reactors, fuel vendors are investigating the use of dopants to modify the properties of UO 2 pellets, with the goal of improving pellet-cladding mechanical interactions during operation. Dopants are expected to ‘soften’ the pellets; that is, the doped pellets have higher plastic deformation than conventional UO 2 . This leads to a reduction in the severity of mechanical pellet-cladding interactions, helping to reduce the hoop strain on the cladding. By minimizing the strain exerted by the pellet on the cladding, it is anticipated that cladding performance under accident conditions can be enhanced (i.e., lowering the risk of burst during a LOCA). Dopants such as chromium (Cr) promote grain growth during pellet fabrication, leading to larger grains; therefore, understanding the link between chemistry, microstructure and mechanical deformation (enhanced creep rates) behavior of UO 2 is critical to helping operators further substantiate the benefits of doping UO 2 . Historically, the nuclear energy industry has relied on empirical models to make assessments of performance. Compared to empirical models, mechanistic physics-based models provide benefits, such as, fewer data points for validation and better extrapolation where experimental data is scarce or non-existent. In this report, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to a previously developed lower length-scale-informed diffusional creep model. The objective is to i) infer lower-length-scale parameter distributions from available experiment and then ii) determine the uncertainties in the measurable quantity (in this case creep rates) after propagating the inferred lower length scale parameter uncertainties. The approach requires many evaluations of the model, which becomes computationally insurmountable; therefore, a neural-network model is trained to data obtained by sampling the full model over the most important parameters. This neural-network is then used in the Bayesian inference approach to determine probability distributions in the parameter values that represent the uncertainty in the model given what is known from the experiments (posterior). A significant reduction compared to conservative initial (prior) uncertainties is achieved through inference against the experimental data, demonstrating the efficacy of this approach. Furthermore, by accounting for uncertainties in the experimental conditions and sample non-stoichiometry, it is possible to resolve apparent discrepancies in experimental measurements within a self-consistent grain boundary (Coble) creep model that is sensitive to chemistry. This work has been written up and submitted to Nuclear Technology for a special issue on accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ). This uncertainty quantification (UQ) work not only improves the diffusional model, while accounting for uncertainty, but also establishes a framework which can readily be applied to the mechanistic models of dislocation deformation developed in this study. The most likely values from the Bayesian analysis are incorporated into our UO 2 diffusional creep model and a lower length scale-informed irradiation UO 2 creep mechanistic model to generate a dataset. This dataset has been provided to our INL collaborators for training an artificial neural network surrogate model, which will be implemented in the BISON fuel performance code to assess how the results differ from those currently obtained using a fully empirical model and that of using the nominal (uncalibrated) atomic scale parameters in our mechanistic model. Plastic deformation (creep and glide) in UO 2 is a complex phenomenon, governed by multiple underlying processes such as local defect concentrations, applied stresses, and microstructural characteristics. Consequently, there is a need for a meso-scale model with polycrystalline resolution capable of extrapolating to large grain sizes applicable to doped UO 2 , where data is limited and the model can help bridge the knowledge gap. By integrating atomistic data into the polycrystal LApx code, it becomes possible to predict dislocation climb and glide plasticity that simple analytical models cannot accurately represent. The application of atomic-scale data within LApx demonstrated the importance of climb and glide mechanisms in reproducing high-stress UO 2 behavior. Behaviors such as this are crucial to capture and implement in BISON, as parts of the fuel pellet can reach temperatures where glide can occur before pellet cracking. This model which captures dislocation based mechanisms for UO 2 is then used to stand up the doped model accounting for larger grain sizes. It was found that larger grain sizes can lead to enhanced deformation rates in the glide regime, and therefore can help with the pellet cladding mechanical interaction. Therefore if the fuel pellet reaches conditions (stress/temperature) where glide is active, the enhanced creep rates for larger grains in the glide regime (doped UO 2 ) can help with pellet cladding mechanical interactions. Plastic deformation in UO 2 involves multiple mechanisms, including diffusional creep, dislocation climb, and glide. This milestone contains two parts: (1) UQ of a pre-existing lower length scale informed mechanistic diffusional creep model, and (2) development of a new LApx based model for dislocation-mediated creep mechanisms in UO 2 , with application to large-grain doped UO 2 .

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cloud response to co-condensation of water and organic vapors over the boreal forest

Abstract. Accounting for the condensation of organic vapors along with water vapor (co-condensation) has been shown in adiabatic cloud parcel model (CPM) simulations to enhance the number of aerosol particles that activate to form cloud droplets. The boreal forest is an important source of biogenic organic vapors, but the role of these vapors in co-condensation has not been systematically investigated. In this work, the environmental conditions under which strong co-condensation-driven cloud droplet number enhancements would be expected over the boreal biome are identified. Recent measurement technology, specifically the Filter Inlet for Gases and AEROsols (FIGAERO) coupled to an iodide-adduct chemical ionization mass spectrometer (I-CIMS), is utilized to construct volatility distributions of the boreal atmospheric organics. Then, a suite of CPM simulations initialized with a comprehensive set of concurrent aerosol observations collected in the boreal forest of Finland during spring 2014 is performed. The degree to which co-condensation impacts droplet formation in the model is shown to be dependent on the initialization of temperature, relative humidity, updraft velocity, aerosol size distribution, organic vapor concentration, and the volatility distribution. The predicted median enhancements in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) due to accounting for the co-condensation of water and organics fall on average between 16 % and 22 %. This corresponds to activating particles 10–16 nm smaller in dry diameter that would otherwise remain as interstitial aerosol. The highest CDNC enhancements (ΔCDNC) are predicted in the presence of a nascent ultrafine aerosol mode with a geometric mean diameter of ∼ 40 nm and no clear Hoppel minimum, indicative of pristine environments with a source of ultrafine particles (e.g., via new particle formation processes). Such aerosol size distributions are observed 30 %–40 % of the time in the studied boreal forest environment in spring and fall when new particle formation frequency is the highest. To evaluate the frequencies with which such distributions are experienced by an Earth system model over the whole boreal biome, 5 years of UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) simulations are further used. The frequencies are substantially lower than those observed at the boreal forest measurement site (< 6 % of the time), and the positive values, peaking in spring, are modeled only over Fennoscandia and the western parts of Siberia. Overall, the similarities in the size distributions between observed and modeled (UKESM1) are limited, which would limit the ability of this model, or any model with a similar aerosol representation, to project the climate relevance of co-condensation over the boreal forest. For the critical aerosol size distribution regime, ΔCDNC is shown to be sensitive to the concentrations of semi-volatile and some intermediate-volatility organic compounds (SVOCs and IVOCs), especially when the overall particle surface area is low. The magnitudes of ΔCDNC remain less affected by the more volatile vapors such as formic acid and extremely low- and low-volatility organic compounds (ELVOCs and LVOCs). The reasons for this are that most volatile organic vapors condense inefficiently due to their high volatility below the cloud base, and the concentrations of LVOCs and ELVOCs are too low to gain significant concentrations of soluble mass to reduce the critical supersaturations enough for droplet activation to occur. A reduction in the critical supersaturation caused by organic condensation emerges as the main driver of the modeled ΔCDNC. The results highlight the potential significance of co-condensation in pristine boreal environments close to sources of fresh ultrafine particles. For accurate predictions of co-condensation effects on CDNC, also in larger-scale models, an accurate representation of the aerosol size distribution is critical. Further studies targeted at finding observational evidence and constraints for co-condensation in the field are encouraged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Blockchain for Fault-Tolerant Grid Operations

Radial topology and vast geographic coverage make distribution systems prone to widespread power outages upon the failure of a single (or multiple) upstream component. Fault-handling algorithms depend heavily on correct estimations of the system’s state to effectively isolate the affected area and reduce the number of affected customers while maintaining operational safety. The work described here leverages the core features of distributed, consensus-based decision-making processes and the immutability of blockchain, and demonstrates their value in improving fault-tolerant grid operations. In this work, blockchain was used to create a trusted data-sharing platform that enables independent actors to reconstruct the system state; this enables distributed resources to make intelligent decisions with limited knowledge. Although the process requires data sharing, its algorithms have been designed to limit the amount of private information that is exchanged, which helps preserve business-sensitive data and maintain customer privacy. In addition, by reducing the information that must be shared, the communication requirements are also reduced; (however, an in-depth analysis of the communication requirements is beyond the scope of this project). The proposed use cases are intended to represent a foundational basis for third parties to develop functional solutions that can eventually be deployed in the field. To further provide guidance, the envisioned use cases have incorporated design requirements that consider the blockchain characteristics and a need to limit information from surrounding resources, which preserve the assumption and the possibility that such resources could belong to different entities. This report presents a detailed design of the three use cases with the tools needed to enable the analysis being tested. The implemented gross error detection method can detect mismatches when the error exceeds 3.8 times the sensor’s rated accuracy. Detection of the circuit breaker state successfully identified the correct states across all simulation tests. A distribution-system power-flow solution in the simulator OpenDSS generally possesses a convergency tolerance of 0.01% on the voltage magnitude. The evaluation of possible reconnection using voltage magnitude—preserving the data ownership—has a voltage magnitude difference smaller than 0.001% from the OpenDSS result. The results preserving data ownership have a difference within the expected power flow tolerance with full knowledge of the system, which surpasses expectations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Joint Optimization of Well Completions and Controls for CO 2 Enhanced Oil Recovery and Storage

CO 2 storage through CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is considered as one of the technologies to help promote larger scale deployment of CO 2 storage because of associated economic benefits through oil recovery, 45Q tax credits and the utilization of existing infrastructure. The objective of this study is to demonstrate how optimal reservoir management and operation strategies (including well completions and controls) can be used to optimize both CO 2 storage and oil recovery. The optimization problem was focused on jointly estimating the well completions (i.e., fraction of injection/production well perforations in each reservoir layer) and CO 2 injection/oil production controls that maximize the net present value (NPV) in a CO 2 EOR and storage operation. We utilized the newly developed StoSAG algorithm, one of the most efficient optimization algorithms in the reservoir management community, to solve the optimization problem. The performance of joint optimization approach was compared with the performance of well control only optimization approach. In addition, the performance of co-optimization of CO 2 storage and oil recovery approach was compared with the performances of maximization of only CO 2 storage and maximization of only oil recovery approaches. The optimization results showed that a joint optimization of well completions and well controls can achieve an 8.84% higher final NPV than the one obtained from the optimization of only well controls. It was observed that the NPV incremental for joint optimization is mainly due to the fact that the optimal well completions and controls approach results in efficient CO 2 storage and oil production from different reservoir layers depending on the differences in individual layer properties. Comparison of co-optimization (i.e., maximization of NPV) and maximization of only CO 2 storage or only oil recovery showed that the co-optimization and maximization of only oil recovery result in significantly higher final NPV than that obtained through maximization of only CO 2 storage approach while maximization of only CO 2 storage can achieve significantly higher CO 2 storage in the reservoir compared to the other two scenarios. The similar results for co-optimization and maximization of oil production are obtained because of the difference in oil revenue compared to CO 2 storage tax credit. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in oil/gas industry and CO 2 storage community to perform joint optimization of well completions and well controls in the fields. We expect that the proposed optimization framework will be a useful and efficient tool for field engineers to optimally manage CO 2 EOR projects to maximize revenue through oil recovery as well as CO 2 storage by taking advantage of the new 45Q tax law.

Artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

High–Performance NiCo 2 O 4 /Graphene Quantum Dots for Asymmetric and Symmetric Supercapacitors with Enhanced Energy Efficiency

For the sustainable growth of future generations, energy storage technologies like supercapacitors and batteries are becoming more and more common. However, reliable and high-performance materials’ design and development is the key for the widespread adoption of batteries and supercapacitors. Quantum dots with fascinating and unusual properties are expected to revolutionize future technologies. However, while the recent discovery of quantum dots honored with a Nobel prize in Chemistry, their benefits for the tenacious problem of energy are not realized yet. In this context, herein, chemical-composition tuning enabled exceptional performance of NiCo 2 O 4 (NCO)/graphene quantum dots (GQDs) is reported, which outperform the existing similar materials, in supercapacitors. A comprehensive study is performed on the synthesis, characterization, and electrochemical performance evaluation of highly functional NCO/GQDs in supercapacitors delivering enhanced energy efficiency. The high-performance, functional NCO/GQDs electrode materials are synthesized by the incorporation of GQDs into NCO. The effect of variable amount of GQDs on the energy performance characteristics of NCO/GQDs in supercapacitors is studied systematically. In-depth structural and chemical bonding analyses using X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Raman spectroscopic studies indicate that all the NCO/GQDs composites crystallize in the spinel cubic phase of NiCo 2 O 4 while graphene integration evident in all the NCO/GQDs. The scanning electron microscopy imaging analysis reveals homogeneously distributed spherical particles with a size distribution of 5–9 nm validating the formation of QDs. The high-resolution transmission electron microscopy analyses reveal that the NCOQDs are anchored on graphene sheets, which provide a high surface area of 42.27 m 2 g –1 and high mesoporosity for the composition of NCO/GQDs-10%. In addition to establishing reliable electrical connection to graphene sheets, the NCOQDs provide reliable 3D-conductive channels for rapid transport throughout the electrode as well as synergistic effects. Chemical-composition tuning, and optimization yields NCO/GQDs-10% to deliver the best specific capacitance of 3940 Fg –1 at 0.5 Ag –1 , where the electrodes retain ≈98% capacitance after 5000 cycles. The NCO/GQD-10%//AC asymmetric supercapacitor device demonstrates outstanding energy density and power density values of 118.04 Wh kg –1 and 798.76 W kg –1 , respectively. The NCO/GQDs-10%//NCO/GQDs-10% symmetric supercapacitor device delivers excellent energy and power density of 24.30 Wh kg –1 and 500 W kg –1 , respectively. These results demonstrate and conclude that NCO/GQDs are exceptional and prospective candidates for developing next-generation high-performance and sustainable energy storage devices.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data from: "Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest"

This data package contains data used to support conclusions drawn in “Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest”, by Kueppers et al. 2017. Data were collected in field sites within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), located on Niwot Ridge, on the eastern slope of the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA. Files containing geospatial data are also included, to provide additional locational context.There are four document formats associated with this archive: three comma-separated values (.csv) files, three Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) files, one .pdf data user’s guide, four keyhole markup language (.kml) files, and a compressed folder containing seven ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The .csv files can be opened using any simple text-editor software, R, or Microsoft Excel. The .xlsx files can only be opened using Microsoft Excel. The .kml file can be opened by Google Earth and Google Maps, and the shapefiles can be opened with any GIS application compatible with the file type, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS, and QGIS.We provide two versions of the seedling data file: “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20150522_20150525rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015) and “PIEN_PIFLseedlings20160408rev12222020.csv/.xlsx” (hereafter PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016). PIEN_PIFLseedlings2015 contains the data we used in the paper. PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016 contains an updated version of these data that includes sampling from later years. The main differences between the two files lie in the columns titled “k[YEAR],” which describe the number of seedlings that were killed in a particular year. In PIEN_PIFLseedlings2016, there also is an additional year of data for k2015, and k2014 also has additional data input for the 2014 cohort. Additionally, in years 2010-2014, there are minor differences in the number of seedlings killed -- in as few as 0 plots (in 2011) to as many as 5 plots (in 2014) -- due to errors in data input that were rectified in later years.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Upslope range shifts by subalpine tree species are a widely anticipated effect of climate change. Climate niche models predict subalpine forests to expand upslope, given more suitable growing conditions for adult trees. However, these models do not take into account climates required for successful seedling recruitment and establishment, an essential element for expansion. Further, localized upper treeline populations are hypothesized to contain favorable traits for colonizing the alpine. To test these expectations and to expand our knowledge of seedling recruitment under climate change, we designed a common garden, climate-warming experiment spread across an elevation gradient at Niwot Ridge in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. We focus on two widespread Western North American species, Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii Parry ex. Engelm) and limber pine (Pinus flexilis James), which occur at treeline. While the former is considered a late-seral species more tolerant of shade, limber pine is a shade-intolerant pioneer species able to establish on infertile sites.Every autumn, seeds of the two species were collected from high- (3370 m–3570 m) and low-provenance (2910–3240 m) sources close to the experimental sites and sown in our plots. A subset of plots were heated and another subset watered over the summer months to offset the effects of warming. Across five years, we found that seeds originating from low elevation recruited more strongly for both species, although this provenance difference diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. Despite the recruitment of low-provenance seed, warming treatments decreased recruitment at all elevations. Combining this with the likeliness and availability of lower-quality, high provenance seed moving upslope at the treeline, tree migration into the alpine may be slowed. Overall, our findings suggest that the hardier limber pine is likely to become a more significant species in subalpine forest communities in the future, while the more sensitive Engelmann spruce may experience range contraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representativeness assessment of the pan-Arctic eddy covariance site network and optimized future enhancements

Abstract. Large changes in the Arctic carbon balance are expected as warming linked to climate change threatens to destabilize ancient permafrost carbon stocks. The eddy covariance (EC) method is an established technique to quantify net losses and gains of carbon between the biosphere and atmosphere at high spatiotemporal resolution. Over the past decades, a growing network of terrestrial EC tower sites has been established across the Arctic, but a comprehensive assessment of the network's representativeness within the heterogeneous Arctic region is still lacking. This creates additional uncertainties when integrating flux data across sites, for example when upscaling fluxes to constrain pan-Arctic carbon budgets and changes therein. This study provides an inventory of Arctic (here > = 60∘ N) EC sites, which has also been made available online (https://cosima.nceas.ucsb.edu/carbon-flux-sites/, last access: 25 January 2022). Our database currently comprises 120 EC sites, but only 83 are listed as active, and just 25 of these active sites remain operational throughout the winter. To map the representativeness of this EC network, we evaluated the similarity between environmental conditions observed at the tower locations and those within the larger Arctic study domain based on 18 bioclimatic and edaphic variables. This allows us to assess a general level of similarity between ecosystem conditions within the domain, while not necessarily reflecting changes in greenhouse gas flux rates directly. We define two metrics based on this representativeness score: one that measures whether a location is represented by an EC tower with similar characteristics (ER1) and a second for which we assess if a minimum level of representation for statistically rigorous extrapolation is met (ER4). We find that while half of the domain is represented by at least one tower, only a third has enough towers in similar locations to allow reliable extrapolation. When we consider methane measurements or year-round (including wintertime) measurements, the values drop to about 1/5 and 1/10 of the domain, respectively. With the majority of sites located in Fennoscandia and Alaska, these regions were assigned the highest level of network representativeness, while large parts of Siberia and patches of Canada were classified as underrepresented. Across the Arctic, mountainous regions were particularly poorly represented by the current EC observation network. We tested three different strategies to identify new site locations or upgrades of existing sites that optimally enhance the representativeness of the current EC network. While 15 new sites can improve the representativeness of the pan-Arctic network by 20 %, upgrading as few as 10 existing sites to capture methane fluxes or remain active during wintertime can improve their respective ER1 network coverage by 28 % to 33 %. This targeted network improvement could be shown to be clearly superior to an unguided selection of new sites, therefore leading to substantial improvements in network coverage based on relatively small investments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task C Final Report

The Full-scale Emplacement (FE) heater experiment at the Mont Terri Underground Rock Laboratory (URL) was designed and conducted by Nagra to replicate an emplacement tunnel of Nagra’s reference repository design at 1:1 scale. Alongside testing the technical feasibility of constructing disposal tunnels, emplacing waste containers in the tunnels and then backfilling them, the main goals of the FE experiment are (1) to obtain a better understanding of the coupled effects of induced thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) processes that may occur and (2) to validate existing coupled THM models (Müller et al., 2017). A key aspect of ensuring safety for repositories located in low-permeability rock involves minimizing any damage to the rock itself, thereby preserving its integrity and promoting a stable environment Amongst a number of processes that could damage the rock is the increase in pore pressure due to thermal loading caused by heat emitted from the waste. To reduce the potential damage of the rock, it is important to analyse the evolution of heat over time due to the heat load of the containers and assess possible consequences by coupled THM models. The aim of Task C of DECOVALEX-2023 was to build 3D numerical models of the FE experiment, focussing in particular on the heating induced pore pressure change in the Opalinus Clay. Data from a large number of sensors were available from the FE experiment for model comparison. These sensors measured temperature and relative humidity in the bentonite around the heaters, and temperature, pressure and displacement/strain in the surrounding Opalinus clay. Data were available from the start of excavation (April 2012) up to August 2020 for most sensors (more than 5 years from the start of heating in December 2014). To fulfil the overall aim of the task, the work was broken down into a number of steps, starting with simpler models to build confidence in each team’s approach and then moving to more complex models that better represent the FE experiment. Step 0 consisted of 2D benchmark models, gradually increasing the number of processes that are represented from thermal (T) only models in Step 0a, to coupled thermal hydraulic (TH) models in Step 0b with a representation of changing porosity, to coupled thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) models in Step 0c, where porosity changes are calculated by the mechanical model. A detailed specification of processes, parameters, initial and boundary conditions was provided for this step, with the ambition that all teams would work towards close agreement in their model results, thus building confidence in the model implementations. vi It was not straightforward to achieve agreement between the teams, so additional steps (Step 0b2, 0b3, 0c2, 0c3) were added along with derivation of some analytical solutions against which the models could be compared. The reasons for the differences between teams were investigated and found to be caused primarily by different conceptual model assumptions (including temperature dependence of the thermal expansion of water), different model formulations (including porosity evolution) and differences in modelled domain sizes, boundary conditions and grid discretisation. This demonstrates that comparisons between multiple modelling teams and/or comparison with analytical results and experimental data are highly beneficial in providing an indication of uncertainty in model predictions. At the conclusion of Step 0, almost all teams had achieved a close agreement in model results and those that had not achieved an agreement knew the reason for this. Step 1 moved from 2D models to 3D models of the FE experiment without adding technical features like shotcrete or EDZ, and only considering the heating phase. Initially the 3D model was tightly specified to continue to build confidence in the model implementations (Step 1a). The results of Step 1a were compared to the data from the FE-experiment without the teams seeing the data. The teams were then provided with a sub-set of the data from the FE-experiment and invited to consider how best to use the large dataset for model comparison (Step 1b). Teams were then asked to use the data provided to calibrate their models, only changing material property values rather than adding features or processes to their models (Step 1c). In Step 1, teams were asked to only model the heating phase of the experiment, so pressure in the Opalinus Clay was reported as change in pressure since the initial conditions were specified rather than modelled. The change from 2D to 3D models was accompanied by an increase in the dispersion of results between the teams. Some of this was resolved during the task, but some remained and is potentially due to model discretisation. Calibration of parameters was useful in improving the fit of the models to the data but the remaining differences indicated that the models were missing features or processes. In Step 2, the teams were asked to update their models with additional features and processes as well as calibrating parameters to try and improve the fit of the models to the data. Teams were encouraged to represent ventilation of the open FE tunnel prior to backfilling with heaters and bentonite and in Step 2, the absolute pressure in the Opalinus Clay was compared between the teams. Teams took different approaches, but there was consideration of adding shotcrete and an EDZ into the model, representing stress change during excavation and different approaches to modelling ventilation of the FE tunnel. Overall, the documented results showed a very good agreement for temperature. The results for porewater pressure evolution showed a significant improvement for most teams compared to Step 1c with a good agreement to the measurements for several teams whereas some teams overpredicted the pressure increase and others overpredicted the drainage effect especially for the sensors close to the heater. Step 3 was an opportunity for teams to use the models developed in Step 1 and Step 2 to make predictions about the temperature and pressure changes that will be expected at the FE experiment over the next few years in light of the planned changes in thermal output of the heaters.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

ZTF-SEDm Type Ia supernova sample for Twins Embedding spectrophotometric standardization

Aims. This paper has two aims: the first aim is to build a large homogeneous spectrophotometric sample of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) from the second data release of the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF DR2). We used the spectrum sample from the low-resolution ( R ∼ 100) SEDmachine (SEDm) Integral Field Spectrograph (IFS) that gathered 3069 spectra. This is one of the largest samples of such collections that can attempt to reproduce the Twins Embedding (TE) spectrophotometric standardization method. This is our second objective. The method was developed based on high-quality spectra from 200 SNe Ia of the Nearby Supernova factory (SNfactory) and led to an exceptionally low value of 0.073 mag for the intrinsic scatter. Methods. As the SEDm is not designed as a spectrophotometric instrument, we first improved the flux-calibration accuracy of the SN Ia spectrum sample using the ZTF photometric data, which were calibrated at the percent level. We corrected the spectra for second-order polynomials, fitted by comparing the synthetic photometry in the ZTF g , r , i filters with the light-curve (LC) data. We then applied the three steps of the TE parameterization to a subset of 783 ZTF SN spectra near maximum light while comparing results from SNfactory and ZTF. We finally analyzed the standardization methods based on the TE parameters. Results. The precision of the phase-correction model, which is the first step of the TE, is estimated at 0.01 mag in g band based on ZTF data. Despite the challenge posed by the spectrum-extraction pipeline associated with the SEDm (flux calibration, leftover host signal, low signal-to-noise ratio, and low resolution), we applied a first standardization in color based on the second step of the TE, called read between the lines (RBTL), to the ZTF sample. We reached a Hubble residual scatter of 0.153 mag, all in normalized median absolute deviation, which is to be compared to the ∼0.11 mag obtained with the SNfactory data. The SALT color and stretch standardization reaches a scatter of 0.164 mag for the same ZTF SN Ia sample, and its host steps are ∼0.1 mag and zero for RBTL. When considering the scatter due to the redshift error and flux calibration error, we estimated a RBTL scatter of ∼0.129 mag for this ZTF sample as an upper limit because we identified an additional contribution from a systematic error in color. We tested the standardization based on the nonlinear TE parameters, and, as expected from the low spectrum quality, it did not improve the overall dispersion. Conclusions. We release 1897 flux calibrated spectra of 1607 SNe Ia with an estimated photometric accuracy of 0.07 mag. We further demonstrate that some amount of spectrophotometric SN Ia standardization can be done with limited-quality spectra. The RBTL standardization is more efficient than that of SALT with one parameter less, and the resulting host steps are consistent with zero. This makes it less prone to astrophysical bias. For future spectroscopic surveys, targeting the extraction pipeline for a thorough flux calibration and good signal-to-noise ratio would enable us to compute the full TE standardization, which would further reduce the scatter in the distance estimate.

Ganot, C↗
DOE OSTI2022

Arctic Shrub Expansion, Plant Functional Trait Variation, and Effects on Belowground Carbon Cycling (Final Technical Report)

Terrestrial ecosystems are undergoing dramatic changes in response to climate warming, and these changes are expected to feedback to the atmosphere, potentially altering the trajectory of future climate change. Feedbacks from Arctic ecosystems are a major concern because the Arctic is projected to warm significantly in the 21 st century and because >50% of global belowground organic carbon is stored in permafrost and overlying soils. Warming-driven release of this carbon could drastically increase atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations and accelerate climate warming. Plant communities are also responding to warming, as evidenced by the widely documented increase in woody-shrub growth and “greening” across much of the Arctic tundra biome. This vegetation shift may offset or amplify warming by altering carbon cycling. The direction and magnitude of shrub effects remain highly uncertain, however, due to limited understanding of the consequences of shrub expansion for belowground carbon cycling and simplification of these relationships in models. The major shrubs expanding in the Arctic (Betula, Salix, and Alnus) vary widely with respect to aboveground and belowground traits (e.g., tissue production and chemistry, rooting depth, microbial symbionts), and may also exhibit substantial intraspecific variation in these traits in response to environmental conditions. Such variation is likely to have profound implications for soil carbon cycling. The overarching goal of this project was to improve process-based understanding of the influence of shrub expansion on carbon cycling to enable improved representation of carbon dynamics in ecosystem and Earth system models. We investigated how plant functional traits vary among shrub genera, respond to environmental conditions, and affect belowground carbon and nutrient cycling by quantifying relationships among functional traits and biogeochemical cycling along edaphic gradients nested within a climate gradient in the Alaskan tundra. We found consistent differences in leaf and root traits among shrub genera and between shrubs and a widespread sedge species, indicating diverse nutrient acquisition strategies and belowground impacts among different arctic shrubs. We also found striking differences in trait values among individuals within the same species or genera within sites. Soil parameters were more important than climate parameters for predicting size and leaf trait variation, and root trait responses were less dependent on climate overall. For all but one root trait, including parameters representing aboveground traits improved the predictive ability of models. These results demonstrate that tundra shrub traits vary considerably at local scales and soil factors drive this variation, especially belowground. Furthermore, leveraging information about aboveground traits and soil conditions can improve predictions of how belowground traits will respond to climate change. Despite these differences, soil carbon and nitrogen pools in the active layer did not vary among plots dominated by different shrub or sedge genera. Instead, pool sizes generally decreased from warmer to colder sites, consistent with a productivity gradient. Patterns of isotopic N composition indicate that shrubs tighten nitrogen cycling via nitrogen resorption or immobilization of shrub litter. Overall, these results suggest that further identifying the specific shrub genera in the tundra landscape will ultimately provide better predictions of belowground dynamics across the changing arctic. We also performed simulation experiments with the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) incorporated in the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn) framework, treats model parameters as probability distributions, estimates parameters based on a synthesis of available field data, and then quantifies both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter or suite of parameters. We performed simulations across different types of tundra, including shrub tundra. One key finding was that both model sensitivity and uncertainty to a given parameter could vary within the same type of tundra, but in a different geographical location, such as over the climate gradient of shrub tundra described above. We organized a special session at the annual meeting of the Ecological Society of America in August 2019 to disseminate our results, refine recommendations for model improvement, and initiate collaborations to implement these recommendations in existing models of tundra carbon dynamics at ecosystem to Earth system scales. Our results support DOE near-term priorities by providing mechanistic insights into the role of vegetation change in the terrestrial carbon cycle in a region that is inadequately represented in Earth system models. Current models reduce the complexity of Arctic vegetation to a small number of plant functional types (PFTs). This approach implicitly assumes that each PFT represents the average ecological function of its constituent species, thus ignoring the effects of trait variation on biogeochemical cycling and potentially leading to large uncertainty in the sign and magnitude of ecosystem feedbacks to climate. By quantifying variation of plant functional traits across broad gradients of climatic and edaphic conditions and elucidating the linkages of such variation with carbon and nutrient cycling, our results illustrate the need and create a foundation for further developing trait-based modeling approaches that allow the traits of PFTs to vary as a function of environmental conditions. These approaches should improve the capacity of simulation models to offer insights into ecosystem carbon dynamics associated with novel plant communities in a rapidly changing Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗