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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

Rainfall trends in the African Sahel: Characteristics, processes, and causes

Abstract Sahel rainfall is dynamically linked to the global Hadley cell and to the regional monsoon circulation. It is therefore susceptible to forcings from remote oceans and regional land alike. Warming of the oceans enhances the stability of the tropical atmosphere and weakens deep ascent in the Hadley circulation. Warming of the Sahara and of the nearby oceans changes the structure and position of the regional shallow circulation and allows more of the intense convective systems that determine seasonal rain accumulation. These processes can explain the observed interannual to multidecadal variability. Sea surface temperature anomalies were the dominant forcing of the drought of the 1970s and 1980s. In most recent decades, seasonal rainfall amounts have partially recovered, but rainy season characteristics have changed: rainfall is more intense and intermittent and wetting is concentrated in the late rainy season and away from the west coast. Similar subseasonal and subregional differences in rainfall trends characterize the simulated response to increased greenhouse gases, suggesting an anthropogenic influence. While uncertainty in future projections remains, confidence in them is encouraged by the recognition that seasonal mean rainfall depends on large‐scale drivers of atmospheric circulations that are well resolved by current climate models. Nevertheless, observational and modeling efforts are needed to provide more refined projections of rainfall changes, expanding beyond total accumulation to metrics of intraseasonal characteristics and risk of extreme events, and coordination between climate scientists and stakeholders is needed to generate relevant information that is useful even under deep uncertainty. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of precipitation variability on plant species and community water stress in a temperate deciduous forest in the central US

Variations in precipitation regimes can shift ecosystem structure and function by altering frequency, severity and timing of plant water stress. There is a need for predictively understanding impacts of precipitation regimes on plant water stress in relation to species water use strategies. Here we first formulated two complementary, physiologically-linked measures of precipitation variability (PV) - Precipitation Variability Index (PVI) and Average Recurrence Interval of Effective Precipitation (ARIEP). We then used nine-year continuous measurements of Predawn Leaf Water Potential Integral (PLWPI) in a central US forest to relate PVI and ARIEP to actual plant water availability and comparative water stress responses of six species with different capacities to regulate their internal water status. We found that PVI and ARIEP explained nearly all inter-annual variations in PLWPI for all species as well as for the community scaled from species measurements. The six species investigated showed differential sensitivities to variations in precipitation regimes. Their sensitivities were reflected more in the responses to PVI and ARIEP than to the mean precipitation rate. Further, they exhibited tradeoffs between responses to low and high PV. Finally, PVI and ARIEP were closely correlated with temporal integrals of positive temperature anomalies and vapor pressure deficit. We suggest that the comparative responses of plant species to PV are part of species-specific water use strategies in a plant community facing the uncertainty of fluctuating precipitation regimes. In conclusion, PVI and ARIEP should be adopted as key indices to quantify physiological drought and the ecological impacts of precipitation regimes in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The productivity of perennial crops miscanthus and switchgrass is more resistant to vapor pressure deficit stress than maize

Rising atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (D) with warming is an increasingly important driver of crop productivity loss, yet the relative sensitivity of conventional seed crops and alternative perennial crops remains poorly resolved. In this study, we combined a 9-year eddy covariance carbon flux record (2008 – 2016) with 600+ midday leaf water potential (ψ L ) measurements (2024 – 2025) from adjacent maize (Zea mays), miscanthus (Miscanthus x giganteus), and switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) plots to: (1) quantify the limitations of elevated D on crop-specific productivity and (2) evaluate how these responses vary as a function of soil moisture (Θ) status. We found that maize strictly regulated ψ L and its gross primary productivity (GPP) was strongly reduced by increasing D. In contrast, miscanthus and switchgrass allowed larger ψ L declines and sustained higher GPP under similar moisture constraints. D exerted a larger limitation on maize GPP than Θ, but D-driven declines were less severe when accompanied by high Θ. GPP sensitivity to D was also influenced by Θ for miscanthus and switchgrass, but the buffering effect was stronger compared to maize. Specifically, high D paired with high Θ were the most productive conditions for the perennials, reflecting temperature-driven gains in photosynthetic efficiency when evaporative stress was mitigated by sufficient soil water supply. Overall, miscanthus and switchgrass displayed greater resistance to atmospheric drought and more stable GPP across hydroclimate variability than maize. These findings highlight that maize is more vulnerable to future projections of rising D than miscanthus or switchgrass.

drought↗

Power generation-cooling water Nexus: Impacts of cooling water shortage on power system operation - a simulation case study in Illinois, U.S

Cooling water shortage, frequently attributed to drought and heat waves, poses a significant threat to the operations of thermoelectric power plants and further poses a challenge for the entire power system and environmental stakeholders. Recognizing the critical nexus between power generation and cooling water availability and the potential ability of power generations to adjust generation schedules during cooling water shortages, this paper introduces a security-constrained unit commitment and economic dispatch model considering water-energy nexus. In specific, the model is augmented with a unit-level cooling water requirement (CWR) model and multi-level cooling water availability (CWA) constraints. The unit-level CWR model quantifies the cooling water withdrawal per MWh of power generation, taking into account factors such as thermoelectric generation technologies, cooling system technologies, and environmental parameters. The multi-level CWA constraints incorporate pump-level, plant-level, watershed-level, and forced minimum power constraints, utilizing data derived from actual-based cooling water shortage scenarios. Using a simulation case study in Illinois, United States, this research examines the reliability, economic, and environmental implications of cooling water shortages on power system operations. The results show that Illinois may experience 10-15% daily load curtailment and severe congestion between certain regions from the east to central during cooling water shortages, while once-through and wet-tower units experience a 52% and 17% reduction in power generation. In conclusion, overall cooling water withdrawal decreases by 24-38% as severity intensifies.

Cooling water shortage↗

The proper localization of RESPONSIVE TO DESICCATION 20 in lipid droplets depends on their biogenesis induced by STRESS-RELATED PROTEINS in vegetative tissues

Highlights: • The cellular mechanism of SRPs on response to drought stress is proposed. • The mechanism relies on enhancement of LD biogenesis. • RD20 is localized to SRPs-dependent LDs in vegetative tissues. • The enzymatic activity of RD20 is correlated with its LD-localization. Arabidopsis LD surface proteins, SRPs are found only in higher plants and are important for LD biogenesis and abiotic stress signaling. However, the cellular mechanism of SRPs is still unclear. To investigate molecular functions of SRPs, we used tobacco transient expression system. Transient expression of SRPs was sufficient and synergistic for LD biogenesis, and SRPs participated in the formation step of LD in tobacco leaves. RESPONSIVE TO DESICCATION 20 (RD20), a known LD-localizing peroxygenase, localized to LD in the presence of an SRP, and its peroxygenase activity correlated with proper localization of RD20 to LD. Our data suggest that Arabidopsis SRPs play roles as positive factors for LD biogenesis to provide a proper localization of LD-localizing proteins in vegetative tissues.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Regulation mechanism of long non-coding RNA in plant response to stress

Highlights: • LncRNAs can regulate gene expression at transcription and post-transcription, epigenetic level, and many biological processes. • In this review, we discuss the regulation mechanism of long non-coding RNA in plant response to stress. • This review will provide strong evidence for lncRNAs to explore new ideas and new targets for prevention and control. Long non-coding RNA (lncRNA) is a non-coding RNA greater than 200 nucleotides in length. LncRNAs can regulate gene expression at transcription and post-transcription, epigenetic level, and plays an important role in a wide range of biological processes such as genomic imprinting, chromatin remodeling, transcriptional activation, transcriptional interference and cell cycle. It becomes the current hot topics in the study of molecular biology and genetics. Emerging evidence proposed that lncRNAs play important roles in response to both abiotic and biotic stress. In this review, we discuss the role of lncRNAs in drought resistance, salt resistance, disease resistance, and immunity of plants, providing strong evidence for exploring the important role of lncRNAs in plant resistance, in order to explore new ideas and new targets for prevention and control.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Health and vitality assessment of two common pine species in the context of climate change in southern Europe

The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The South-eastern France can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Based on non-parametric statistical tests, the climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, global radiation) and forest-response indicators (crown defoliation, discoloration and visible foliar ozone injury) of two pine species (Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra) were analyzed. In the last 20 years, the trend analyses reveal a clear hotter and drier climate along the coastline and slightly rainier inland. In the current climate change context, a reduction in ground-level ozone (O{sub 3}) was found at remote sites and the visible foliar O{sub 3} injury decreased while deterioration of the crown conditions was observed likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in South-eastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (+0.46–1.08 °C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (+1.95–4.59 °C). Climate change is projected to reduce the benefits of O{sub 3} precursor emissions controls leading to a higher O{sub 3} uptake. However, the drier and warmer climate should induce a soil drought leading to a lower O{sub 3} uptake. These two effects, acting together in an opposite way, could mitigate the harmful impacts of O{sub 3} on forests. The development of coordinated emission abatement strategies is useful to reduce both climate change and O{sub 3} pollution. Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management with substantial socio-economic and biological diversity impacts. However, the development of future sustainable and adaptive forest management strategies has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of forest species to climate change. - Highlights: • We assess climate change impacts on forests: South-eastern France as case study in the last 20 years. • We detect and estimate trends for O{sub 3} concentrations, climatic parameters and visible injury. • We establish a state-of-the-art of the health of 2 common pine species in a context of climate change. • We use two valuable bio-indicator species for O{sub 3} stress: Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra. • Deterioration of crown conditions: climate change creates additional challenges for forest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A hybrid wavelet de-noising and Rank-Set Pair Analysis approach for forecasting hydro-meteorological time series

Highlights: • A new hybrid approach is proposed to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. • Rank-Set Pair Analysis combined with wavelet de-noising markedly improves forecasting accuracy. • The performance of the proposed approach proves best among its present competitors even when the extreme value occurs. Accurate, fast forecasting of hydro-meteorological time series is presently a major challenge in drought and flood mitigation. This paper proposes a hybrid approach, wavelet de-noising (WD) and Rank-Set Pair Analysis (RSPA), that takes full advantage of a combination of the two approaches to improve forecasts of hydro-meteorological time series. WD allows decomposition and reconstruction of a time series by the wavelet transform, and hence separation of the noise from the original series. RSPA, a more reliable and efficient version of Set Pair Analysis, is integrated with WD to form the hybrid WD-RSPA approach. Two types of hydro-meteorological data sets with different characteristics and different levels of human influences at some representative stations are used to illustrate the WD-RSPA approach. The approach is also compared to three other generic methods: the conventional Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) (BP-error Back Propagation, MLP-Multilayer Perceptron and RBF-Radial Basis Function), and RSPA alone. Nine error metrics are used to evaluate the model performance. Compared to three other generic methods, the results generated by WD-REPA model presented invariably smaller error measures which means the forecasting capability of the WD-REPA model is better than other models. The results show that WD-RSPA is accurate, feasible, and effective. In particular, WD-RSPA is found to be the best among the various generic methods compared in this paper, even when the extreme events are included within a time series.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Revealing the causes and temporal distribution of tree mortality in Central Amazonia

Tree mortality is a critical process in forest ecosystems, as it influences floristic composition, structure, dynamics, carbon storage, and forest nutrient cycling. However, the mechanisms behind tree death in tropical regions are still poorly characterized. This lack of information is mainly because tree mortality data come from long-interval inventories and studies that measured tree death seasonally are scarce. Here in this study, we offer novel insights into the power of fine temporal scale observations and we use a natural history approach to understand the processes and mechanism of tree mortality. We monitored tree mortality every month during one year, in 10 ha of terra-firme forest. To determine the pathways of mortality, we considered the state of the tree at the start of the investigation and the pre and post-mortem characteristics. From November 2010 to October 2011, 67 out of 5808 trees died. Despite the 2010 drought, mortality was highly correlated with monthly rainfall (r = 0.85). In total, six pathways of mortality were assessed. Storms were the main cause of mortality, killing 45% of all dead trees, followed by Biotic/abiotic factors accounting for 30% of tree mortality. The high mortality registered in the rainy season was mostly (78%) due to healthy trees dying uprooted or snapped. Lastly, we would benefit from studies that assess mortality on a monthly basis and in combination with quantitative long-term data, we can substantially improve our understanding of the mechanisms behind tree death in the tropics.

2010 drought↗

XERICO as a target for engineering stress-resilient crops: Mechanisms, applications, and future directions

XERICO's capacity to enhance ABA-driven stress responses across diverse crops, its regulatory crosstalk with other hormonal pathways, and its compatibility with advanced genetic engineering tools highlight its central role in sustainable agriculture. Leveraging XERICO in crop improvement programs aligns with the urgent need to mitigate the impacts of climate-induced stress in agriculture, offering a pathway toward resilient and high-yielding crops. Here, by enabling crops to withstand drought and other environmental stresses, XERICO-based biotechnological approaches hold transformative potential for global food security and environmental sustainability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Tree-ring evidence marks year 2022 as the driest spring season in nearly four centuries in the Western Himalayas

The Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalayan region is a crucial freshwater source for billions across South Asia, yet its climate remains poorly understood due to limited long-term records. Winter and spring precipitation govern snow accumulation and downstream water availability in dry months particularly across the Western Himalayas (WH), but recent decades show intensifying droughts with unclear long-term context. Here, we have reconstructed a nearly four-century-long spring i.e. February to May (FMAM) precipitation for the Lahaul region of the (WH), an area dominated by the Western Disturbances. This record was developed using moisture-sensitive Cedrus deodara (Deodar) tree-rings from three high-elevation sites. A regional composite tree-ring-width chronology, developed through a Nested Principal Component Analysis and modeled with a nonlinear Generalized Additive Model (GAM) that explains 71 % of the variance during the calibration period. We identified the last two decades as the most precipitation deficit phase and the year 2022 showing the driest FMAM on record. The observed rise in the FMAM dry episodes post 1999 CE in our reconstruction, corresponds to the meteorological records. This recent drying is linked to a northward shift of the subtropical westerly jet and reduced moisture transport, both associated with unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the tropical Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific Ocean. Our results provide compelling evidence of long-term hydroclimatic instability in the WH and emphasize the value of tree-ring records in extending precipitation histories beyond the instrumental observations. Such reconstructions can be benchmarks to validate high-resolution climate models and formulate adaptation policies to mitigate future risks.

Cedrus deodara↗

Partitioning sources of CO 2 emission after soil wetting using high-resolution observations and minimal models

Wetting dry soil triggers a pulse of microbial respiration. Respiration pulses after wetting can be complex, evolving through several stages before subsiding—possibly reflecting contributions from multiple carbon (C) sources. In this work we hypothesized that respiration after wetting combines C from cellular sources (notably trehalose, a cellular osmo-protectant) and soluble extracellular C made available by the physical effects of wetting, with cellular sources contributing early during the pulse and extracellular C dominating later. We tested this hypothesis by making measurements of soil respiration, microbial biomass, trehalose, and water extractable organic C after wetting dry soil in the laboratory. We then devised several alternative minimal models to evaluate the potential contributions of trehalose and extracellular C to the respiration pulse. We found that the chloroform-labile fraction of the microbial biomass was comprised of 50% trehalose in dry soil. Both trehalose and water extractable organic C pools declined rapidly after wetting; trehalose disappeared within 3 h of water addition. Chloroform-labile glucose increased 3 h after water addition and then declined, suggesting rapid hydrolysis of trehalose and consumption of the resulting glucose. Respiration dynamics after wetting could be best explained by models that included two C sources, combining rapid metabolism of trehalose with slower consumption of extracellular soluble C. These results suggest that pulses of respiration after wetting reflect both osmolyte consumption within the microbial biomass and enhanced extracellular C availability; hence, models of microbial drought response must account for both processes to fully resolve soil C dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Genetic and epigenetic signatures of Populus trichocarpa in response to abiotic stresses

Plants respond to abiotic stresses such as drought, heat, and salinity through both shared and stress-specific regulatory pathways. However, the role of epigenetic mechanisms, particularly DNA methylation, in modulating these responses is still underexplored. Here, we integrated transcriptome profiling with whole-genome bisulfite sequencing (WGBS) to investigate the dynamic relationship between gene expression and DNA methylation in Populus trichocarpa during brief early-stage exposure to abiotic stress. Each stress elicited distinct transcriptional and methylation signatures; however, a subset of conserved stress-responsive genes was commonly regulated across treatments. We found that ∼5-6% of differentially expressed genes also displayed differential methylation patterns, suggesting a coordinated role for DNA methylation in regulating gene expression. Motif enrichment analysis of differentially methylated regions revealed binding sites of key transcription factor families, including ERF, bHLH, and ABF, highlighting potential role for methylation in modulating transcription factor targeting. Furthermore, we identified stress-inducible molecular markers with potential applications in early stress detection and functional dissection of gene regulatory pathways. Together, these findings provide new insights into the coordinated genetic and epigenetic responses to abiotic stress and provide a foundation for developing biosensors and breeding strategies to enhance stress resilience woody plants.

DNA methylation↗

Fewer Troughs, Not More Ridges, Have Led to a Drying Trend in the Western United States

High-amplitude ridges can enforce heat-trapping systems that persist through an entire season, contributing to drought events. However, the impacts of day-to-day weather system changes at the meso- and synoptic-scale are also important, albeit less well studied. Here, we identify five weather types (WTs) from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies. These categories include WT4, which represents ridges and associated dry and warm anomalies, and WT3, which characterizes troughs and associated wetter- and colder-than-normal conditions and is the largest contributor to precipitation in the western U.S. While no discernable trend is evident for WT4 conditions, WT3 conditions have undergone a distinctive decrease in frequency at both annual and seasonal scales, thus a general drying trend across the west during this time period may be more significantly associated with fewer troughs rather than more ridges. Attribution analysis reveals that this decrease in wetter and colder weather is a likely result of anthropogenic forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

One Stomatal Model to Rule Them All? Toward Improved Representation of Carbon and Water Exchange in Global Models

Abstract Stomatal conductance schemes that optimize with respect to photosynthetic and hydraulic functions have been proposed to address biases in land‐surface model (LSM) simulations during drought. However, systematic evaluations of both optimality‐based and alternative empirical formulations for coupling carbon and water fluxes are lacking. Here, we embed 12 empirical and optimization approaches within a LSM framework. We use theoretical model experiments to explore parameter identifiability and understand how model behaviors differ in response to abiotic changes. We also evaluate the models against leaf‐level observations of gas‐exchange and hydraulic variables, from xeric to wet forest/woody species spanning a mean annual precipitation range of 361–3,286 mm yr −1 . We find that models differ in how easily parameterized they are, due to: (a) poorly constrained optimality criteria (i.e., resulting in multiple solutions), (b) low influence parameters, (c) sensitivities to environmental drivers. In both the idealized experiments and compared to observations, sensitivities to variability in environmental drivers do not agree among models. Marked differences arise in sensitivities to soil moisture (soil water potential) and vapor pressure deficit. For example, stomatal closure rates at high vapor pressure deficit range between −45% and +70% of those observed. Although over half the new generation of stomatal schemes perform to a similar standard compared to observations of leaf‐gas exchange, two models do so through large biases in simulated leaf water potential (up to 11 MPa). Our results provide guidance for LSM development, by highlighting key areas in need for additional experimentation and theory, and by constraining currently viable stomatal hypotheses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relative Controls of Vapor Pressure Deficit and Soil Water Stress on Canopy Conductance in Global Simulations by an Earth System Model

Climate change impacts drought and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) that critically influence land-atmosphere water vapor and CO 2 exchange. There is a lack of model-based global evaluation of the relative roles of the two types of water stresses in limiting canopy conductance (G c ). Using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we conducted four land-atmosphere coupled simulations for the historical period with and without a plant hydraulics scheme (PHS) and under present-day and quadrupling of CO 2 concentrations. By fitting an empirical model of G c to the E3SM simulations, we evaluated the sensitivity of G c to water stresses caused by VPD and soil water (SW) in the growing season. The empirical model is based on a multiplicative algorithm that adjusts G c according to VPD, soil water saturation, and their interaction. Our results show positive trends of VPD over land during the historical period, with large differences between simulations with and without PHS. Despite the differences, a majority of land pixels that experience both SW and VPD stresses are in semi-arid and tropical savanna ecosystems. G c is more sensitive to VPD than SW in less than 20% of land pixels where the empirical model provides a good fit for the simulated G c . Ignoring SW and VPD interaction may underestimate the relative role of VPD on G c by as much as 28%. Including PHS accentuates SW stress limitation on G c by simulating wetter soil and higher ET that lower VPD. Elevated CO 2 reduces G c by increasing water use efficiency and ameliorates SW stress on G c .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Gene expression patterns of two dominant tallgrass prairie species differ in response to warming and altered precipitation

To better understand the mechanisms underlying plant species responses to climate change, we compared transcriptional profiles of the co-dominant C 4 grasses, Andropogon gerardii Vitman and Sorghastrum nutans (L.) Nash, in response to increased temperatures and more variable precipitation regimes in a long-term field experiment in native tallgrass prairie. We used microarray probing of a closely related model species ( Zea mays ) to assess correlations in leaf temperature (T leaf ) and leaf water potential (LWP) and abundance changes of ~10,000 transcripts in leaf tissue collected from individuals of both species. A greater number of transcripts were found to significantly change in abundance levels with T leaf and LWP in S. nutans than in A. gerardii. S. nutans also was more responsive to short-term drought recovery than A. gerardii. Water flow regulating transcripts associated with stress avoidance (e.g., aquaporins), as well as those involved in the prevention and repair of damage (e.g., antioxidant enzymes, HSPs), were uniquely more abundant in response to increasing T leaf in S. nutans . Furthermore, the differential transcriptomic responses of the co-dominant C 4 grasses suggest that these species may cope with and respond to temperature and water stress at the molecular level in distinct ways, with implications for tallgrass prairie ecosystem function.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗