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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

2021 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

This report is an update to the NETL report on the same topic that examined the potential system performance of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system during the summer of 2020. Anticipated reserve margins in ERCOT have risen year-over-year from the 10.7 percent reported in ERCOT’s Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2020 to 15.7 percent for Summer 2021 in ERCOT’s Capacity, Demand and Reserves [CDR] report published in December 2020 and 2021 Summer Preliminary SARA published in March 2021. Using data from ERCOT’s 2021 Summer SARA, CDR, and historical performance data, six economic dispatch scenarios using PROMOD were developed to assess the risk to ERCOT of a load shedding event for Summer 2021. The results suggest that ERCOT could make it through the summer season without a loss of load event, as long as the weather remains normal. However, through a combination of scenarios, including increased demand, increased forced outages, and low wind output, ERCOT is likely to find itself operating in emergency conditions.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Updated Report for the Natural Gas Community of the Future

Nicor Gas is developing the Natural Gas Community of the Future (later renamed the Nicor Gas Smart Neighborhood (TM), a high-performance residential neighborhood consisting of 50 homes connected to electricity and natural gas services in suburban South Chicago , built as low-income affordable housing. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has been assisting Nicor Gas to explore a synergy among energy efficiency, renewable technologies, affordability, and resilience enabled by natural gas in this community. Our goal is to demonstrate how energy efficiency, distributed energy resources (DERs), and advanced controls, in combination with existing natural gas and electricity infrastructure, can help historically underserved communities in a cold climate reduce energy burden and improve resilience to extreme weather conditions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Dynamic Surface Incorporation of Pb 2+ Ions at the Actively Dissolving Calcite (104) Surface

The reaction of dissolved Pb 2+ with calcite surfaces at near-equilibrium conditions involves adsorption of Pb 2+ and precipitation of secondary heteroepitaxial Pb-carbonate minerals. A more complex behavior is observed under far-from-equilibrium conditions, including strong inhibition of calcite dissolution, development of microtopography, and near-surface incorporation of multiple monolayers (ML) of Pb 2+ without precipitation of secondary phases [where 1 ML ≡ 1 Ca/20.2 Å 2 , the crystallographic site density of the calcite (104) lattice plane]. However, the mechanistic controls governing far-from-equilibrium reactivity are not well understood. Here, in this study, we observe the interfacial incorporation of dissolved Pb 2+ during the dissolution of calcite (104) surfaces at pH ~3.7 in a flow-through reaction cell, revealing the formation of a ~1 nm thick Pb-rich calcite layer with a total Pb coverage of ~1.4 ML. These observations of the sorbed Pb distribution used resonant anomalous X-ray reflectivity, X-ray fluorescence, and nanoinfrared atomic force microscopy. We propose that this altered surface layer represents a novel sorption mode that is stabilized by conditions of sustained disequilibrium. This behavior may significantly impact the transport of dissolved metals during disequilibrium processes occurring in acid mine drainage and subsurface CO 2 injection and, if appropriately accounted for, could improve the predictive capability of geochemical reactive-transport models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Diverse organic carbon dynamics captured by radiocarbon analysis of distinct compound classes in a grassland soil

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a large, dynamic reservoir composed of a complex mixture of plant- and microbe-derived compounds with a wide distribution of cycling timescales and mechanisms. The distinct residence times of individual carbon components within this reservoir depend on a combination of factors, including compound reactivity, mineral association, and climate conditions. To better constrain SOC dynamics, bulk radiocarbon measurements are commonly used to trace biosphere inputs into soils and to estimate timescales of SOC cycling. However, understanding the mechanisms driving the persistence of organic compounds in bulk soil requires analyses of SOC pools that can be linked to plant sources and microbial transformation processes. Here, we adapt approaches, previously developed for marine sediments, to isolate organic compound classes from soils for radiocarbon ( 14 C) analysis. We apply these methods to a soil profile from an annual grassland in Hopland, California (USA), to assess changes in SOC persistence with depth (down to 1 m). We measured the radiocarbon values of water-extractable organic carbon (WEOC), total lipid extracts (TLEs), total hydrolyzable amino acids (AAs), and an acid-insoluble (AI) fraction from bulk and physically separated size fractions (< 2 mm, 2 mm–63 µm, and < 63 µm). Our results show that Δ 14 C values of bulk soil, size fractions, and extracted compound classes became more depleted with depth, and individual SOC components have distinct age–depth distributions that suggest distinguishable cycling rates. We found that AAs and TLEs cycle faster than the bulk soils and the AI fraction. The AI was the most 14 C-depleted fraction, indicating that it is the most chemically inert in this soil. Our approach enables the isolation and measurement of SOC fractions that separate functionally distinct SOC pools that can cycle relatively quickly (e.g., plant and microbial residues) from more passive or inert SOC pools (associated with minerals or petrogenic) from bulk soils and soil physical fractions. With the effort to move beyond SOC bulk analysis, we find that compound class 14 C analysis can improve our understanding of SOC cycling and disentangle the physical and chemical factors driving OC cycling rates and persistence.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Comparative Analysis of Model Predictive Control and MPC-Informed Rule-Based Control for Thermal Storage Operation in Ultra-Low Temperature 4th Generation District Heating Networks

The integration of thermal storage and heat pumps in district heating networks (DHNs) can significantly enhance operational flexibility and energy efficiency; however, the practical deployment of advanced control strategies is often hindered by forecasting requirements and computational complexity. This study presents a comparative analysis of thermal storage control strategies in an ultra-low-temperature fourth-generation DHN, focusing on the development of a simplified rule-based control (RBC) explicitly informed by Model Predictive Control (MPC) behavior. The proposed methodology systematically analyzes the charging and discharging decisions of an MPC-controlled system under ideal forecasting conditions and extracts recurrent control patterns as a function of key system variables, including outdoor temperature, thermal demand, and electricity price. These patterns are translated into a set of structured time- and condition-based rules, resulting in an MPC-informed RBC that embeds predictive insights while preserving implementation simplicity and operational transparency. The approach is validated on a realistic mixed-use urban district in Denver, Colorado, USA, equipped with a centralized air-source heat pump, distributed water-to-water heat pumps, and a central thermal storage unit. Results show that the tuned RBC attains approximately 96% of ideal MPC economic performance (-27% of costs), preserves values of technical and environmental indicators (reduction only of 2-3%), and substantially reduces complexity. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the robustness of the RBC under varying operational conditions (i.e., ambient temperature, electricity price). Overall, the study demonstrates that MPC-informed rule-based control represents an effective trade-off between control performance and real-world applicability, enabling the integration of additional system components while maintaining simplicity, robustness, and ease of implementation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

String-based parametrization of nucleon GPDs at any skewness: A comparison to lattice QCD

We introduce a string-based parametrization for nucleon quark and gluon generalized parton distributions (GPDs) valid at all skewness values. The conformal moments of the GPDs are expressed as sums of the spin-j nucleon A-form factor and the skewness-dependent spin-j nucleon D-form factor. This representation, which fulfills the polynomiality condition (due to Lorentz invariance) and does not rely on model-specific assumptions, is derived from t-channel string exchanges in anti-de Sitter spaces. The spin-j nucleon D-form factor is closely related to the spin-j nucleon A-form factor. We use the Mellin moments from empirical parton distributions to model the spin-j nucleon A-form factors. Using only five Regge slope parameters, fixed from the electromagnetic and gravitational form factors, our string-based parametrization generates accurate singlet, nonsinglet, isovector, and flavor-separated nucleon quark GPDs, along with symmetric nucleon gluon GPDs from their Mellin-Barnes integral representations. Our isovector nucleon quark GPD is in agreement with existing lattice data. Our string-based parametrization should facilitate the empirical extraction and global analysis of nucleon GPDs in exclusive processes, bypassing the deconvolution challenge.

Electron-ion collisions↗

Methods for Continuously Resolving Spectral Shifts in Distributed Optical Fiber Sensors Irradiated to Extreme Neutron Fluence

Optical frequency domain reflectometry (OFDR) is a technique for interrogating distributed optical fiber sensors (DOFS) and involves correlating changes in the Rayleigh backscatter fingerprint for a fiber under test (FUT) with a reference measurement. Recently, under the WIRE-21 experiment sponsored by Nuclear Science User Facilities (NSUF) and performed at the High-Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), silica optical fibers were irradiated to a fast neutron fluence of 1x10^21 n/cm^2/s at temperatures from 200--400 C. As in the cases of high-temperature and high-strain conditions, such high levels of neutron bombardment result in a highly dynamic RBS that evades analysis with conventional methods. This work describes the further development and application of graphical signal processing techniques applied to OFDR-based distributed optical fiber sensors specifically deployed in in-pile applications. While the signal processing techniques developed in this work are applied to DOFS in nuclear environments, they provide a general framework for the analysis of OFDR measurements and a tangible method to yield higher quality data, without imposing additional hardware requirements.

Sweeney, Dan↗

Modeling the Cosmological Lyman-𝛼 Forest at the Field Level

The distribution of absorption lines in the spectra of distant quasars, called the Lyman-𝛼 (Ly-𝛼) forest, is a unique probe of cosmology and the intergalactic medium at high redshifts and small scales. The statistical power of ongoing redshift surveys demands precise theoretical tools to model the Ly-𝛼 forest. We address this challenge by developing an analytic, perturbative forward model to predict the Ly-𝛼 forest at the field level for a given set of cosmological initial conditions. Our model shows a remarkable performance when compared with the Sherwood hydrodynamic simulations: it reproduces the Ly-𝛼 forest flux power spectrum, its cross-correlation with dark matter halos, and the one-point probability distribution function of both fields at the percent level down to scales of a few Mpc. Our work provides crucial tools that bridge analytic modeling on large scales with simulations on small scales, enabling field-level inference from Ly-𝛼 forest data and simulation-based priors for cosmological analyses. Furthermore, this is especially timely for realizing the full scientific potential of the Ly-𝛼 forest measurements by the dark energy spectroscopic instrument.

Cosmological parameters↗

Nonthermal electron and ion acceleration by magnetic reconnection in large laser-driven plasmas

Magnetic reconnection is a fundamental plasma process that is thought to play a key role in the production of nonthermal particles associated with explosive phenomena in space physics and astrophysics. Experiments at high-energy-density facilities are starting to probe the microphysics of reconnection at high Lundquist numbers and large system sizes. We have performed particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations to explore particle acceleration for parameters relevant to laser-driven reconnection experiments. We study particle acceleration in large system sizes that may be produced soon with the most energetic laser drivers available, such as at the National Ignition Facility. In these conditions, we show the possibility of reaching the multi-plasmoid regime, where plasmoid acceleration becomes dominant. Our results show the transition from X point to plasmoid-dominated acceleration associated with the merging and contraction of plasmoids that further extend the maximum energy of the power-law tail of the particle distribution for electrons. We also find for the first time a system-size-dependent emergence of nonthermal ion acceleration in driven reconnection, where the magnetization of ions at sufficiently large sizes allows them to be contained by the magnetic field and energized by direct X point acceleration. For feasible experimental conditions, electrons and ions can attain energies of ϵ max , e / k B T e > 100 and ϵ max , i / k B T i > 1000 . Using PIC simulations with binary Monte Carlo Coulomb collisions, we study the impact of collisionality on plasmoid formation and particle acceleration. The implications of these results for understanding the role reconnection plays in accelerating particles in space physics and astrophysics are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A Modeling framework for flocculated cohesive sediment transport in the current bottom boundary layer

Cohesive sediment transport, where its settling velocity is controlled by the flocculation process, is a crucial component in determining biochemical cycles, fate of pollutants, and morphodynamics in many aquatic ecosystems. In this study, a modeling framework is presented to investigate how flocculation influences cohesive sediment transport in the current bottom boundary layer in dilute conditions, consistent with the calibration range of the flocculation model. From a local analysis of floc dynamics in homogenous turbulence, we identify that the floc size distribution is mainly controlled by floc cohesion and yield strength. The uncertainty in fractal dimension plays a minor role for the floc size but it influences the resulting floc density and settling velocity. The transport analysis in the current boundary layer shows that the flocculation process alters the vertical distribution of the settling velocity and hence the sediment concentration with a strong dependence on cohesion, floc yield strength, and floc structure. When the flocs are more susceptible to breaking, a well-mixed concentration profile is obtained. In contrast, for flocs with higher cohesion or yield strength, higher concentration with a sharp gradient is observed close to the bed. Overall, the settling velocity exhibits a low vertical variability within 20 % of the depth-averaged value except near the bed. Further, this suggests that using a depth-averaged settling velocity yields acceptable predictions of the sediment concentration profiles, especially for flocs with lower cohesion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the energy balance of chemical looping combustion of solid fuels using CuO-based oxygen carriers

Chemical looping combustion (CLC) can inherently capture the CO2 generated during thermal energy production. When using CuO-based oxygen carriers, the reactions in both the fuel reactor (FR) and air reactor (AR) are exothermic, facilitating autothermal operation. To prevent the oxygen carrier from becoming agglomerated while ensuring a sufficient oxygen release rate, it is necessary to predict the FR temperature and remove an appropriate amount of heat from the AR when burning high-rank fuels. Here in this work, the energy balance of a CuO-based CLC system firing various solid fuels (biomass, coal, and petroleum coke) was investigated by establishing a thermodynamic model using FactSage. The energy distribution characteristics of the FR were quantified based on a virtual five-step thermodynamic sequence. The effects of fuel properties, oxygen carrier properties, and operating conditions on the energy balance were evaluated systematically. The results indicate that the temperature difference between the FR and AR is not very sensitive to the heating value of the fuel, while the CuO loading of the oxygen carrier, the heat capacity of the support material, and the flow rate of the fluidizing gas have significant impact. The insights obtained in this work will help improve the design and heat management of CLC.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Chemical characteristics of iron meteorite parent bodies

The projected relative abundances of the highly siderophile elements (HSE; Re, Os, Ir, Ru, Pt, and Pd) for bulk parent bodies of 10 magmatic iron meteorite groups/grouplet (IC, IIAB, IIC, IID, IIF, IIIAB, IIIF, IVA, IVB, and South Byron Trio) are broadly similar and show no resolvable differences between noncarbonaceous (NC) and carbonaceous (CC) genetic heritage. The processes driving genetic isotopic heterogeneity in the early Solar System, therefore, evidently did not leave discernable chemical fingerprints with respect to HSE relative abundances on the bulk planetesimal scale. By contrast, the absolute abundances of HSE projected for parent body cores, which reflect core size, are more variable and, on average, higher in CC bodies compared to NC bodies. Overall, bulk core chemical compositions, as well as core size, are linked to the distribution of Fe within a parent body, which is controlled by its oxidation state. The CC parent bodies are constrained to have formed under heterogeneous oxidizing conditions which were, on average, more oxidizing than those of the NC environment.

Hilton, Connor D.↗

A two-dimensional numerical study of ion-acoustic turbulence

We investigate the linear and nonlinear evolution of the current-driven ion-acoustic instability in a collisionless plasma via two-dimensional (2-D) Vlasov–Poisson numerical simulations. We initialise the system in a stable state and gradually drive it towards instability with an imposed, weak external electric field, thus avoiding physically unrealisable super-critical initial conditions. A comprehensive analysis of the nonlinear evolution of ion-acoustic turbulence (IAT) is presented, including the detailed characteristics of the evolution of the particles’ distribution functions, (2-D) wave spectrum and the resulting anomalous resistivity. Our findings reveal the dominance of 2-D quasi-linear effects around saturation, with nonlinear effects, such as particle trapping and nonlinear frequency shifts, becoming pronounced during the later stages of the system's nonlinear evolution. Remarkably, the Kadomtsev–Petviashvili (KP) spectrum is observed immediately after the saturation of the instability. Another crucial and noteworthy result is that no steady saturated nonlinear state is ever reached: strong ion heating suppresses the instability, which implies that the anomalous resistivity associated with IAT is transient and short-lived, challenging earlier theoretical results. Towards the conclusion of the simulation, electron-acoustic waves are triggered by the formation of a double layer and strong modifications to the particle distribution induced by IAT.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Statistical White-Line Analysis in High-Throughput TXM-XANES for Chemical State Quantification

The transmission X-ray microscopy (TXM) based X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) technique provides three-dimensional mapping of element-specific chemical states at nanometer-scale spatial resolution and micrometer-scale fields of view. However, compared to conventional volume-averaged XANES (VA-XANES) measurements, the inherently small voxel size in TXM-XANES leads to a lower signal-to-noise ratio, making full-spectrum analysis computationally demanding and less robust. Here, we present the structural and compositional conditions for a statistical white-line analysis framework under which chemical state information can be directly extracted from the white-line peak position in voxel spectra without the need for voxel-wise background subtraction or normalization, under well-defined structural and compositional conditions. The method is validated on layered oxide cathode materials, where low-order polynomial fitting accurately reproduces white-line features, and the extracted energy distributions correlate strongly with VA-XANES results. This statistical approach enables high-throughput, dose-efficient, and noise-robust chemical state quantification in TXM-XANES, offering broad applicability to functional materials requiring nanoscale oxidation-state mapping.

TXM↗

Experimental Constraints on Solid Nitride Phases in Rocky Mantles of Reduced Planets and Implications for Observable Atmosphere Compositions

Abstract Astronomical surveys have discovered thousands of transiting exoplanets, revealing that rocky planets are common in the galaxy. A planet's interior chemistry is frequently inferred by average density, described by mass‐radius (M‐R) relationships. However, M‐R relationships give rise to non‐unique interpretations of a planet's interior composition, an issue that limits our ability to characterize far‐away worlds. We present experimental and density functional theoretical results addressing the influence of an ultra‐reducing (oxygen‐poor) interior chemistry on rocky mantle phases and discuss the possible implications for atmospheric observables. We show that silicon carbide (SiC) and molecular nitrogen (N 2 ) react to form solid silicon nitride (γ‐Si 3 N 4 ) at high pressures and high temperatures in a laser‐heated diamond‐anvil cell, consistent with ab initio computations. Si 3 N 4 remains stable under extreme conditions and when quenched to ambient conditions. As SiC is a common compound found under very reducing conditions, these results indicate that nitrogen may form solid phases in an oxygen‐poor rocky planet. If, by sequestering nitrogen in a planet's mantle, the distribution of nitrogen between a planet's interior and atmosphere is altered (i.e., a nitrogen‐rich mantle and nitrogen‐poor atmosphere), these results indicate that there may be atmospheric observables connected to the mantle‐redox state of a rocky planet besides the oxygen‐containing phases ubiquitous in exoplanet literature.

Daviau, Kierstin↗

Anthropogenic Contributions to the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract Daily maximum temperatures during the 2021 heatwave in the Pacific Northwest United States and Canada shattered century old records. Multiple causal factors, including anthropogenic climate change, contributed to these high temperatures, challenging traditional methods of attributing human influence. We demonstrate that the observed 2021 daily maximum temperatures are far above the bounds of Generalized Extreme Value distributions fitted from historical data. Hence, confidence in Granger causal inference statements about the human influence on this heatwave is low. Alternatively, we present a more conditional hindcast attribution study using two regional models. We performed ensembles of simulations of the heatwave to investigate how the event would have changed if it had occurred without anthropogenic climate change and with future warming. We found that global warming caused a ∼0.8°C–1°C increase in heatwave temperatures. Future warming would lead to a ∼5°C increase in heatwave temperature by the end of the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Non-volatile magnon transport in a single domain multiferroic

Antiferromagnets have attracted significant attention in the field of magnonics, as promising candidates for ultralow-energy carriers for information transfer for future computing. The role of crystalline orientation distribution on magnon transport has received very little attention. In multiferroics such as BiFeO 3 the coupling between antiferromagnetic and polar order imposes yet another boundary condition on spin transport. Thus, understanding the fundamentals of spin transport in such systems requires a single domain, a single crystal. We show that through Lanthanum (La) substitution, a single ferroelectric domain can be engineered with a stable, single-variant spin cycloid, controllable by an electric field. The spin transport in such a single domain displays a strong anisotropy, arising from the underlying spin cycloid lattice. Our work shows a pathway to understanding the fundamental origins of magnon transport in such a single domain multiferroic.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

Influence of birefringent fibre joints on the visibility drift in a Mach – Zehnder interferometer

It is shown that imperfect joints of linear birefringent fibres in a fibre interferometer may result in an uncontrolled visibility drift under varying environmental conditions even with a standard phase matching device. As an example, a double Mach – Zehnder interferometer is considered, which is employed in schemes of quantum key distribution. Results of numerical simulation demonstrate the standard deviation of the quantum bit error rate (QBER), which is comparable to an average QBER value. (paper)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗