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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Mind the Gap: Building Simulation in the Architectural Design Studio

Building modelling and simulation approaches are increasingly being utilized in architectural design studios to guide and inform the design process and offer evidence-based feedback on proposed building performance. The development of intuitive and simplified simulation interfaces has greatly contributed to achieving this integration. One aspect that is often overlooked is the workflow that governs and regulates integrated design, which can have significant impacts on final design outcomes. Currently there are numerous software packages available for building performance simulations. This makes it challenging to select an appropriate tool that provides accurate results yet allows a designer to make informed architectural decisions with a designer-friendly interface. Furthermore, workflows to incorporate simulations into the design process proved to highly impact student’s project design integration. Yet, it is not clear what type of workflows are successful to achieve this goal, under what conditions, and/or for which building and site typologies. This paper addresses these issues by first reviewing three different workflows for integrating building performance simulation processes and highlighting their strengths and weaknesses. Second, a comparative case study approach was employed to test three of the most common workflows in three different integrated design architectural studios at the senior and vertical studio levels as well as in two courses that run parallel and complementary to the design studios. The workflows, processes, and the resultant student projects were further analyzed based on criteria for better integrated design and architectural excellence as outlined in the American Institute of Architects Committee on the Environment (AIA COTE) Top 10 Student’s Competition. Third, to situate the pedagogical case studies’ results within a larger context, a survey of the AIA COTE Top 10 student competition award recipients over the last five years was conducted. The results are summarized in a pedagogical framework that outlines best strategies of the type of workflows, software, design process used, methods to achieve desired interaction between design process and analytical feedback, and metrics for educators to evaluate the success of this integration and their learning outcomes in the design studio. The goal is to help bridge the gap between the building design and simulation within the design studio’s creative process for more integrated design outcomes.

Elzeyadi, Ihab↗
DOE OSTI2021

Introducing the GeoRePORT Resource Size Tool: Reporting on Geothermal Resource Size Estimations Using the Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT): Preprint

The Geothermal Resource Portfolio Optimization and Reporting Technique (GeoRePORT) was developed with funding from the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technologies Office to assist in identifying and pursuing long-term investment strategies through the development of a resource reporting protocol. The assessment protocols used in GeoRePORT allow for comparison of project attributes across locations and geological settings to understand the feasibility of geothermal development. This work introduces the Resource Size Tool, a new feature within the GeoRePORT package that compiles two independent methods for estimating geothermal resource size in terms of energy capacity in MW. Energy production potential for twenty-three case studies was estimated with the Resource Size Tool in order to 1) generate a reasonable range of resource size estimates for a particular geothermal field; 2) illustrate the advantages and limitations of each methodology (such as data input requirements, estimate accuracy and precision, and the appropriate circumstances of use); and 3) test the ability of the resource size tool to provide useful and accurate information for geothermal stakeholders. The tool employs two methods widely used in the geothermal industry: (1) USGS Volumetric and (2) Power Density. Results from our case studies show general overlap between these two methods in terms of resource size estimates; however, they also reveal key differences between the two approaches that should be considered when using such estimates to drive development. First, the two methods rely on different input parameters and therefore one method may be more appropriate and/or accurate for a given project than the other. Second, the Power Density method was found to generate wider ranges of resource size predictions, more consistently aligning with actual power production of the field but with larger scales of error; whereas the USGS Volumetric method predicts narrower ranges but tends to overestimate when compared to current MW production. Future work will refine variables used in the methods with input data from other sections of GeoRePORT and modify uncertainty levels based on the particular datasets used for a given project.

geological↗
DOE OSTI2022

Updraft dynamics and microphysics: on the added value of the cumulus thermal reference frame in simulations of aerosol–deep convection interactions

One fundamental question about atmospheric moist convection processes that remains debated is whether, or under which conditions, a relevant variability in background aerosol concentrations may have a significant dynamical impact on convective clouds and their associated precipitation. Furthermore, current climate models must parameterize both the microphysical and the cumulus convection processes, but this is usually implemented separately, whereas in nature there is a strong coupling between them. As a first step to improve our understanding of these two problems, we investigate how aerosol concentrations modify key properties of updrafts in eight large-eddy-permitting regional simulations of a case study of scattered convection over Houston, Texas, in which convection is explicitly simulated and microphysical processes are parameterized. Dynamical and liquid-phase microphysical responses are investigated using the following two different reference frames: static cloudy updraft grid cells versus tracked cumulus thermals. In both frameworks, we observe the expected microphysical responses to higher aerosol concentrations, such as higher cloud number concentrations and lower rain number concentrations. In terms of the dynamical responses, both frameworks indicate weak impacts of varying aerosol concentrations relative to the noise between simulations over the observationally derived range of aerosol variability for this case study. On the other hand, results suggest that thermals are more selective than cloudy updraft grid cells in terms of sampling the most active convective air masses. For instance, vertical velocity from thermals is significantly higher at upper levels than when sampled from cloudy updraft grid points, and several microphysical variables have higher average values in the cumulus thermal framework than in the cloudy updraft framework. In addition, the thermal analysis is seen to add rich quantitative information about the rates and covariability of microphysical processes spatially and throughout tracked thermal lifecycles, which can serve as a stronger foundation for improving subgrid-scale parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Floating Photovoltaics in Hydropower Reservoirs in the United States

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of the feasibility of floating photovoltaics (FPV) in federally regulated reservoirs within the continental United States (CONUS) and to present a methodology for capturing the true costs of deployment, potential environmental impacts, and regulatory pathways for open-loop hydropower reservoirs. It is intended for stakeholders who may not be solar industry experts but who are interested in exploring the potential for FPV in their reservoirs. While there are promising opportunities, particularly in enhancing dissolved oxygen (DO) levels and potentially improving compliance with existing hydropower licenses, the current capital costs of FPV are not yet competitive with traditional land-based solar installations at the utility-scale when comparing the LCOE results. A competitive financial outlook is achievable when applying a 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and considering a 5% reduction from the baseline capital expenditures (CapEx) at the Tuckertown Reservoir in North Carolina case study. The study is structured around three key pillars of research: technical potential, environmental impacts and regulatory considerations, and technoeconomic analysis. This report provides a nationwide assessment of the opportunities for FPV in terms of capacity, measured in direct current megawatts (MWDC), in reservoirs managed by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). Additionally, the report introduces a heuristic model for estimating the CapEx of utility-scale FPV projects (1–100 MW), offering a baseline cost estimate for stakeholders. Finally, the report applies these models to a case study of a hydropower reservoir in North Carolina to present site-specific results.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Support of Adhesion Mechanisms in Al 2 O 3 Aerosol Deposition Through Laser-Induced Particle Impact Testing

Aerosol deposition (AD) is a kinetic spray process capable of depositing ceramic coatings at room temperature, but AD process development is generally a laborious exploration of a large process parameter space. Here, this paper presents a case study investigating whether laser-induced particle impact testing (LIPIT) could be applied to expedite development of an alumina (Al 2 O 3 ) coating on nickel (Ni): Specifically, whether LIPIT measurements could predict critical velocities of adhesion on Ni and Al 2 O 3 , and the effect of ball milling the Al 2 O 3 powder. Because LIPIT has a diffraction-limited lower bound on imageable particle size, the usefulness of Al 2 O 3 powder agglomerates as a proxy for single particles was additionally studied. Overall, LIPIT measurements and AD sprays agreed that ball milling dramatically improves adhesion. Additionally, LIPIT measurements of critical velocity of adhesion of Al 2 O 3 powder agglomerates on Ni and Al 2 O 3 substrates (150 meters per second [m/s] and 250 m/s, respectively) quantitatively agreed with predictions from a previously published model based on picoindentation and molecular dynamics simulations. Together, these findings support the established hypothesis that Al 2 O 3 adheres via a dislocation-mediated mechanism in AD, that Al 2 O 3 powder agglomerates adhere as individual constituent particles rather than collectively, and that, for this case study, LIPIT measurements were predictive of AD process parameters.

Al2O3↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microbial macroecology: In search of mechanisms governing microbial biogeographic patterns

Abstract Introduction Rapidly advancing technologies and accumulating information about microbial communities across the globe allow the quantification of microbial properties and functions at a macro‐scale. These emerging microbial biogeographic patterns call for a practical macroecological approach to investigate their underlying mechanisms. Aims The primary aims of this paper are to review the advancements of microbial macroecology in seeking mechanisms governing microbial biogeographic patterns, and to further lay out a roadmap for microbial macroecology in 10 years. Methods We reviewed the progress of microbial macroecology and demonstrated the application of the microbial macroecological approach to microbial biogeographic patterns with three case studies. Results Microbial macroecology provides a platform for understanding microbial abundance, community structure, and functioning across space, time, and taxonomic hierarchy. It emphasizes the integral effects of environmental filtering, microbial responses, diversification, dispersal, and local extinction that drive the microbial biogeographic patterns. The microbial macroecological approach emphasizes the last two stages of the four‐stage scientific method applied to microbial ecology: (a) describing microbial traits across scales to reveal patterns, (b) mathematically representing these patterns, (c) developing and testing conceptual models to build a mechanistic understanding of these patterns from a macroecological perspective, (d) plugging the new knowledge into the theoretical advancements. Three case studies were used to demonstrate the microbial macroecological approach for understanding the global patterns of microbial biomass carbon, microbial composition (fungi : bacteria ratio), and microbial carbon use efficiency. Conclusions Microbial macroecology offers a platform for understanding the mechanisms that drive biogeographic patterns of microbial abundance, diversity and functions. It is likely that these patterns and mechanisms will be increasingly incorporated into predictive models that link climate, carbon dynamics, and biogeochemical processes. A roadmap is outlined for the growing microbial macroecology field; we expect significant progress will be made in five research directions over the next 10 years.

Xu, Xiaofeng↗
DOE OSTI2023

Natural Language Processing for Text Based Event Extraction: Identifying Events of Interest Related to Worldwide State-Sponsored Civil Nuclear Power

Beginning in FY20, SRNL was funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Defense Nuclear Non-Proliferation Research and Development to develop a prototype natural language processing/natural language understating machine learning-based modeling and analysis pipeline to extract and forecast events of interest from massive open data sources. The working hypothesis within the approach is that contextual shifts in key words and phrases act as indicators of events of interest over time. Therefore, by identifying points in time where contextual shifts occur, events of interest can be extracted along with explicit and implicit connections of entities and activities. The development of the preliminary prototype pipeline proved successful, meriting further testing of the pipeline on more broad topical domains and in a worldwide data environment. Therefore, SRNL, in collaboration with the Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics at Virginia Tech, have continued development with a test case of identifying events of interest related to worldwide state-sponsored civil nuclear power in open data sources. In the first year of this follow-on effort, the team has curated domain-specific data corpuses using an automated scheme and applied the modeling and analysis pipeline. This robust, focused, and efficient approach consists of an ensemble of analyses applied to time dependent word embedding models that are trained on the data corpuses. In this report, the team has demonstrated the capability of the existing pipeline (as development has continued in parallel) by exploring several specific case-studies centered around Rosatom’s international activities regarding the planning, construction, operation, and/or shutdown of nuclear reactors. A basic timeline events has been generated by manually cataloging known “milestone” events that have occurred at reactors in Turkey, Finland, Hungary, and Egypt and compared with the output of the modeling pipeline. In this approach, the team has characterized the lead time using the prototype pipeline, as well as the ability to capture relevant information, which proved 100% successful. A deep dive example of the Akkuyu reactor (Turkey) is presented that shows the breadth of information that can be captured using the approach. In this case study, events were extracted pertaining to the planning/construction of Akkuyu including protests from the population, information campaigns in response to the protests, forged regulatory documents and lawsuits, budgetary/shareholder information, geopolitical tensions, and the various construction milestones. This has demonstrated the pipeline’s utility as a research aid or real-time event extraction tool, where summary-level information and detailed text extractions from millions of articles or Tweets across long time periods can be generated with significantly less effort than current techniques.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

SULI Technical Report: WIRE (Draft)

Local climate undoubtedly affects facility maintenance requirements; however, knowledge of the link between weather and facility condition over time is grounded in the 1990s and needs to be updated. WIRE aims to quantify the relationship between climate and infrastructure by calculating climate-based service life estimates to be used in BUILDER, a program the Department of Energy (DOE) uses for facility management. Phase One of this project is a case study on window-or-wall-mounted AC units. The independent variables influencing service life are load, maintenance quality, and effective age, with load calculated from three weather variables: temperature, humidity, and solar radiation. Given sufficient data, service life can be calculated as a function of these variables via regression. WIRE is currently collecting data. Preliminary estimated service life projections as a function of load derived from Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) data support the need for updated analysis on the relationship between climate and facility condition. With the groundwork laid, WIRE can generate deliverables immediately upon arrival of data. The methods used for this case study constitute a framework for deriving the relationship between weather variables and service life for other components.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lessons Learned in the Development of Industry Guidance - 20279

The availability of industry guidance on different aspects of waste management forms a valuable reference for waste practitioners. The guidance typically details the principles, processes and practices that should be consulted during each stage of the relevant activities. It also includes relevant regulatory and international requirements, appropriate case studies and examples of best practices to illustrate technical concepts and make the information available to the reader in an accessible manner. Over recent years Wood have developed (or are developing) a number of industry guidance documents on a range of topics including Solid Waste Characterization, Routine Water Quality Monitoring on Nuclear Sites: Pipeline Characterization: Determining Background Radioactivity for Land Quality Assessment: Interim Storage and Aqueous Waste Management. This talk provides an overview of lessons learned along the way including: - the importance of stakeholder engagement through the process: - how to identify 'good practice'; - the importance of iterative development; and - the selection of illustrative and informative case studies. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

LAI, EVI, NDVI, and kNDVI in 23 pantropical forests affected by 21 cyclones

Statement of purpose: Cyclones alter the function and composition of tropical forests, making effects of intensifying cyclones on carbon-rich forests a critical topic of study. Here, we quantified cyclone-induced damage and recovery of 21 cyclone disturbances affecting 23 pantropical forest sites between 1988-2017 utilizing leaf area index (LAI), enhanced vegetation index (EVI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and transformed NDVI (kNDVI) values from Google Earth Engine. Field observations collected in a meta-analysis (Bomfim et al., 2022, in review) were used to ground-truth and test effects of soil resource availability and disturbance factors on damage and recovery. This meta-analysis also served as the basis to begin vegetation index extraction, utilizing unique site and date combinations, from tropical forests effect by cyclone disturbances. We began collecting NDVI (5km resolution) from the NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Version 5 data product (Vermote, 2019) for all case studies included, 42. Next, we began extracting Landsat data from Landsat 4, 5, and 8, courtesy of the U.S. Geological Survey, in search of higher resolution data. We selected a 3 by 3 Landsat pixel area, leading to a 90m resolution data extraction. The specific imagery used includes Landsat 4 USGS Landsat 4 TM Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA (top of atmosphere) Reflectance, Landsat 5 USGS Landsat 5 TM (thematic mapper) Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA Reflectance, and Landsat 8 USGS Landsat 8 Collection 1 Tier 1 TOA Reflectance. Within Google Earth Engine, we selected the date and location (latitude and longitude), calculated NDVI, kNDVI, and EVI utilizing Landsat bands (see metadata_NGEE-tropics_cyclones), and extracted post- and pre-cyclone values for each case study to calculate cyclone-induced change in the vegetative index. Due to limited spatial resolution of Landsat remote sensing data, MODIS products were investigated next. First, the MOD13Q1.006 Terra Vegetation Indices 16-Day Global 250m product was used to extract 250m EVI and NDVI (Didan, 2015) and then the MCD15A3H.006 MODIS Leaf Area Index/FPAR 4-Day Global 500m product product was used to extract LAI 500m (Myneni et al., 2015). Pre- and post-cyclone values, change in the vegetative index, and standard deviation for all values are included in the main csv (see case_study_data.csv) for all vegetative indices collected, including LAI 500m, EVI 250m, NDVI 250m, NDVI 90m, kNDVI 90m, EVI 90m, and NDVI 5km. Lastly, recovery values were calculated utilizing a standardization method (see metadata_NGEE-tropics_cyclones) and recovery values for MODIS (see MODIS_recovery.csv) and Landsat (Landsat_recovery.csv) data are included.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Probabilistic Forecasts for Predictive Voltage Control

This paper explores predictive cooperative voltage control in distribution systems with highly variable sources such as photovoltaics (PV). The goal is to maintain the voltage profile within the limits despite the fluctuations due to sudden changes in solar power generation. The predictive voltage control method relies on probabilistic solar power and load forecasts to select the optimum Voltage Regulator (VR) taps appropriately. VR taps are selected to minimize the risk of voltage violation. A modified version of the IEEE 123 system is used as the case study. A 100% penetration of solar power is assumed for the distribution system with profiles for solar generation and loads added to the system. Three different probabilistic forecast models (Quantile Regression (QR), Gaussian distribution and volatility forecasting using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)) are explored in this study. The results for the VR taps and Voltage Deviation Index (VDI) are compared to find the most effective forecast model.

Panamtash, Hossein↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advances in supervisory control strategies for a heat pump centric HVAC system − a comprehensive review on applications

There is an increase in research investigating the development and deployment of supervisory controllers that enable high efficiency electrically driven vapor compression heat pumps operating within grid interactive efficient buildings to provide demand side management. This paper reviews over sixty relevant case studies within this domain that focus on commercial off-the-shelf heat pumps whose primary task is providing space conditioning. The concept of a heat pump-centric heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system is introduced, accompanied by a detailed overview of various kinds of electric heat pumps and building-level thermal energy storage configurations. Additionally, the different types of supervisory controller designs, including rule-based control and model predictive control, are discussed, along with the various methods for communication between a supervisory controller and a downstream heat pump’s local controller. A comparative analysis is conducted in order to categorize the reviewed case studies based on their system design, supervisory control algorithm, and validation methodology. This detailed analysis allows the review to establish current research trends, identify potential gaps, and suggest future directions for the development of this technology. Overall, the authors recommend that more future research be devoted to low-cost practical retrofits that allow for easy integration of active thermal energy storage within heat pump-centric heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning system systems that utilize direct expansion heat pumps. We also suggest more research into the development and deployment of supervisory controllers that can properly communicate with commercial off-the-shelf heat pump local controller available control inputs, e.g., zone temperature setpoint. Lastly, more rigorous experimental demonstrations of advanced supervisory control within real and or closed-loop, transient/ quasi-steady state environments are necessary to reduce industry wide skepticism of this technology.

Demand side management↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Studies for Advanced Reactor Using RAVEN

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) is used extensively to evaluate the risks associated with complex engineering systems like Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Current PSA models are based on the Event-Tree/Fault-Tree (ET/FT) methodology. ET and FT models are static and are based on Boolean logic approaches. In the past, concerns have been raised in the literature regarding the capability of the traditional static modelling approaches to adequately account for the impact of process, hardware, software, firmware and human interactions on the stochastic system behaviour. To overcome the limitations of the traditional approach to PSA, several dynamic PSA methodologies have been proposed. One of the dynamic PSA methodologies used for dynamic evaluations is Dynamic Event Tree (DET) framework which can be used to assess the impact of the parameter variability and scenario dynamics on the PSA model for the initiating event. The DET framework couples the stochastic model (number of component/trains that start on demand, operator action timing, etc.) with a Thermal-Hydraulic (TH) model of the plant. This paper explores the use of DET along with a case study on advanced reactor. The initiating event selected for the study was Class IV power supply failure event. The TH analysis considering uncertainty in various parameters was performed using RELAP5 and Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment (RAVEN) tool. Based on the uncertainty analysis, it is concluded that the peak clad temperatures (PCT) are within the limits in all the code runs implying a high-degree of safety margin. However, variation in time to reach the PCT was observed among the code runs and the mean time to reach the PCT was found to be around 8590sec (approximately 2.4 hours). Hence, sufficient time margin is available for human intervention and the operator might have a relatively stress-free state during such an accident scenario. Due to the static nature of the traditional PSA models, the safety margin available was lesser, whereas, with the help of dynamic PSA models, one can demonstrate that the actual available safety margin is more in the present case study and is valuable input from the design point of view.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancing Operational Performance and Productivity Benefits in Breweries through Smart Manufacturing Technologies

This article uses case studies to demonstrate the potential of smart manufacturing (SM) and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies to enhance operational performance and productivity in industry. The analysis highlights benefits such as cost reduction, production flexibility, shorter product time-to-market, energy/water efficiency and environmental impact reduction, and increased productivity. To illustrate the effectiveness of SM and IoT approaches, the authors sought out manufacturers currently implementing or seeking to implement SM and IoT technologies. The authors identified beer brewing (NAICS Code 312120) as a rapidly expanding industry whose members appear eager to implement SM technologies to optimize production lines by revealing bottlenecks and identifying performance-reducing nodes. This article presents two case studies based on SM and IoT technologies in breweries. It briefly describes a systematic framework introduced elsewhere by the authors and uses it to assess the energy productivity and competitiveness of SM applications in breweries. This article addresses questions concerning the information and communications technology infrastructure needed to build smart breweries and how corporations simplify the installation and deployment of SM and IoT components. This article was originally published in the Proceedings of the 2019 ACEEE Summer Study on Energy Efficiency in Industry.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps into Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs and Shallow Reservoirs: A Technology Overview: Preprint

Depleted oil/gas reservoirs represent a waste of underground resources and investments of drilling, and also a potential risk to the earth's environment. Geologic thermal energy storage (GeoTES) is proposed as a solution to convert depleted oil/gas reservoirs into long-term seasonal energy storage. GeoTES can be hybridized with other techniques for viable commercial deployment, such as 1) concentrating solar power (CSP) collectors and 2) heat pumps with excess renewable energy. Here, a technology overview is given on the two GeoTES technologies, which includes system overview, techno-economic models, and case study. Both GeoTES technologies show great potential in the economics of individual project deployment and applicability across the US.

concentrating solar power↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cyber-Informed Engineering: Cybersecurity for Microgrids Workshop Workbook

This case study workbook provides a hypothetical project to support discussion and application of the principles for Cyber-Informed Engineering. Participants in the workshop are encouraged to use the workbook to capture insights and lessons learned. The provided attachment to this workbook contains the visuals for the hypothetical project scope and is used by participants as they capture insights and lessons learned. Though some elements of this scenario are provided for consideration, there are likely key facts which have been omitted or may be unclear. Participants are encouraged to make any needed assumptions about the project to enable application of the CIE principles. Though this project is based on real-world case studies, it is fictional.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance

Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.

Cholesky factor↗