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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

Karuk Climate Resiliency Plan

Statewide, California is the hottest and driest since modern record keeping has taken place. Among the most urgent of the local dimensions of climate change in Karuk Ancestral Territory is the increased frequency of high-severity fire. The 2016 Karuk Climate Vulnerability Assessment (CVA) outlines how these influences have created landscape conditions that hold the potential to be devastating in the face of future high-severity fire events. The project followed the format of our CVA and furthers information garnered to accomplish two primary objectives. The Karuk Tribe developed a Climate Adaptation Plan to address established vulnerabilities to Tribal traditional foods and cultural use species, Tribal program infrastructure, and Tribal management authority and political status resulting from changing conditions with a focus on increased frequency of high-intensity wildfire events within the Karuk Ancestral Territory.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Does mycorrhizal symbiosis determine the climate niche for Populus as a bioenergy feedstock?

This is the final technical and scientific report for DE-SC0016097, in which we investigated the role of symbiotic fungi in determining the climatic niche of trees. While microbes have long been viewed as agents of disease, recent explorations of the microbiome have led biologists to recognize that beneficial microbes play an equally vital role in maintaining the health of plants and animals. Perhaps the most ubiquitous form of beneficial interaction in terrestrial ecosystems occurs between fungi and plant roots. These fungus-root, or “mycorrhizal”, symbioses involve the reciprocal exchange of plant sugars for soil nutrients obtained by the fungus, such as nitrogen and phosphorous, which are critical for plant growth. It is known that mycorrhizal associations are widespread - occurring in approximately 90% of plant species - and diverse, with single plants able to associate simultaneously with over 100 species of fungi. Despite this, the ecological factors that control large-scale distribution and abundance of mycorrhizal symbioses are still poorly known, making it challenging to predict how mycorrhizal symbioses may change in future climate conditions or how these fungal communities might be manipulated to improve regional agriculture or forestry projects. In this research project we focused on a native North American tree with strong biofuel potential – Populus – to answer fundamental questions about the role of climate, soil environment, and mycorrhizal interactions in determining growth and competition in plant communities. Populus provides a unique opportunity for ecologically relevant experiments because of its widespread distribution across North America and its natural variability in mycorrhizal association types.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Technical Assessment of Potential Climate Impact and Economic Viability of Biochar Technologies for Small-Scale Agriculture in the Pacific Northwest

The goal of this study is to evaluate the state of biochar technology and determine the feasibility of integrating small-scale biochar production in ways that benefit smaller, diversified producers. Because of the emergence of carbon markets, this innovative climate and agricultural solution may be financed externally, making biochar more accessible to the growers that could benefit. In this report, we review the current state of biochar technology (Section 2), methods for assessing the potential climate impacts derived from its implementation (Section 3), and the current state of carbon-offset mechanisms for biochar technology (Section 4). In Section 5, we apply this knowledge to several specific biochar technology scenarios involving combinations of different feedstocks, production methods, and economic incentives to arrive at estimates of climate-mitigation impacts and costs per carbon credit generated. We conclude with a summary in Section 6.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Advancing a Watershed Hydro-Biogeochemical Theory: Linking Water Travel Time and Reaction Rates Under Changing Climate

The major goal of the project is to answer the question how and to what degree does a warming climate alter hydrological functioning and (biogeochemical and chemical weathering) reaction rates at the watershed scale? In particular, how does hydrological functioning (water storage, flow paths, and travel time) change responding to a warming climate? What are the corresponding alterations in biogeochemical and chemical weathering rates at the watershed scale? What is the general watershed-scale reaction rate law that causally links reaction rates to metrics of hydrological functioning that are determined by external hydroclimatic conditions and internal watershed structure characteristics? To answer these questions, we have used field measurements and reactive transport modeling. We have found that: 1) stream chemistry has altered tremendously in warmer years; 2) In this water-limited environment, hydrology is the dominant driver for soil respiration and carbon lateral export at the watershed scale; 3) deeper carbon respiration plays an essential role in regulating the patterns of stream carbon in low and high flow conditions, and deeper groundwater will become increasingly important as warming intensifies. This indicates in mountain streams, a warming climate will modify not only the timing and magnitude of streamflow as expected, but also the chemistry and quality of stream water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advanced HVAC Humidity Control for Hot-Humid Climates

During this project we develop and validate a cost-effective, integrated control solution to improve humidity control and comfort for energy-efficient homes in hot-humid climates. This study focuses on developing a strategy that is effective, field tested, and practical for builders to install with minimal disruption to standard practices. A successful solution would simplify the transition to high-performance humidity control and be the basis for design and installation guidance. By relying on the central system as a starting point, the strategy employed minimizes system complexity and cost for builders, while improving comfort and operating cost for homeowners. The solution strategy was to coordinate the cooling, dehumidification, and ventilation functions of central, ducted HVAC systems to better control indoor humidity, improve occupant thermal comfort, and capture energy savings. The primary strategic goals were to: (1) optimize dehumidification by the central air-conditioning system, particularly during part-load conditions, using conventional equipment with modified control settings and lower system airflows; (2) maximize ventilation during heating/cooling on-cycles, to “bank” and condition outdoor ventilation air, and minimize ventilation during off-cycles; (3) quantify the effectiveness and energy impact of the dehumidification and ventilation strategies, while identifying a metric that would be useful to evaluate latent effectiveness. For the test houses in our study, located in Richmond Hill, Georgia; Houston, Texas; and Monroe, Louisiana we observed: (1) the indoor humidity did not exceed 60% RH during the monitored cooling season for 99% of the time in Richmond Hill, 96% of the time in Houston, and 90% of the time in Monroe; (2) the dehumidification strategy improved the steady-state latent capacity of the HVAC system at design conditions by 16% to 49% at the Houston test house and by 28% to 71% at the Monroe test house, depending on which mode the system was operating in; and (3) the good results at the test houses were primarily due to the amount of time the air-conditioning system operated in ramping or dehumidification modes, or both, particularly during the early cooling season. This study demonstrates that air conditioners or heat pumps with a single-stage compressor can provide good humidity control without the need for a two-stage or variable-stage compressor system. The airflow and control settings for ramping and dehumidification modes are critical to control indoor humidity in hot-humid climates, particularly during part-load and shoulder season conditions. The dehumidification strategy used in this study did not jeopardize the mechanical reliability of the cooling equipment. The strategies used in this study are applicable across various equipment brands, models, and efficiency levels, and also applicable to a broad range of homes in hot-humid climates. Results will vary by specific equipment, location, and house configuration and construction.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Building collaboration to advance our understanding of regional climate impacts of dust in California's San Joaquin Valley

This project successfully achieved its central objective of building collaborative research capabilities at UC Merced, a Hispanic-Serving Institution, to advance understanding of the regional climate impacts of dust in California's San Joaquin Valley. Through strategic partnerships with three DOE national laboratories (PNNL, LLNL, and LBNL), we developed critical expertise in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facilities. Among the project's scientific contributions, one key publication includes demonstrating that fallowed agricultural lands are the primary source of anthropogenic dust in California's Central Valley, with dust activities increasing substantially between 2008 and 2022, in correlation with drought severity and expanded fallowed land coverage. This finding suggests that current climate models, including E3SM, likely underestimate the dust burden due to inadequate representation of agricultural land-use changes. Beyond the scientific contributions, the project successfully trained a PhD student, established ongoing collaborations resulting in multiple manuscripts in preparation, and positioned UC Merced to participate in the DUSTIEAIM campaign for 2026-2027, thereby building sustainable research capacity while addressing climate science questions directly relevant to the California Central Valley.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Minimizing Auxiliary Heat Use for Cold Climate Operation of Air-Source Heat Pumps

This paper investigates the auxiliary heat use for air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) operating in cold climate conditions. Twelve variable-capacity, central ducted ASHPs installed in single-family homes in cold climate regions (eleven in northwest United States and one in Denver suburb) were monitored for an entire winter season to collect data at cold temperatures. The methodology employed airside and power measurements that were taken every five-seconds, to calculate heat pump's capacity, coefficient of performance (COP), and auxiliary heat energy consumption. This paper provides valuable insights into the practical implications of auxiliary heat utilization in centrally ducted ASHPs and suggests opportunities to mitigate the usage of auxiliary heat, improving the overall system efficiency during cold climate operation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Final technical report for DE-SC0022255: Discovering Physically Meaningful Structures from Climate Extreme Data

The past two decades have witnessed natural disasters and extreme weather events that affect millions of people. At the same time, the data volume from high-resolution climate models, satellite, in-situ and ground-based measurements have substantially increased to petabyte scales. These new and readily accessible datasets create the previously missing pipeline required for scientific machine learning (ML) and therefore new opportunities for improved understanding and prediction capability of climate extreme events. This project developed a deep latent variable model framework to discover physically meaningful hidden structures from high-dimensional, spatiotemporal climate extreme data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Climate-Driven Legacies in Simulated Microbial Communities Alter Litter Decomposition Rates

The mechanisms underlying diversity-functioning relationships have been a consistent area of inquiry in biogeochemistry since the 1950s. Though these mechanisms remain unresolved in soil microbiomes, many approaches at varying scales have pointed to the same notion—composition matters. Confronting the methodological challenge arising from the complexity of microbiomes, this study used the model DEMENTpy, a trait-based modeling framework, to explore trait-based drivers of microbiome-dependent litter decomposition. We parameterized DEMENTpy for five sites along a climate gradient in Southern California, United States, and conducted reciprocal transplant simulations analogous to a prior empirical study. The simulations demonstrated climate-dependent legacy effects of microbial communities on plant litter decomposition across the gradient. This result is consistent with the previous empirical study across the same gradient. An analysis of community-level traits further suggests that a 3-way tradeoff among resource acquisition, stress tolerance, and yield strategies influences community assembly. Simulated litter decomposition was predictable with two community traits (indicative of two of the three strategies) plus local environment, regardless of the system state (transient vs. equilibrium). Although more empirical confirmation is still needed, community traits plus local environmental factors (e.g., environment and litter chemistry) may robustly predict litter decomposition across spatial-temporal scales. In conclusion, this study offers a potential trait-based explanation for climate-dependent community effects on litter decomposition with implications for improved understanding of whole-ecosystem functioning across scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Resources in Western North America

We examine a 25 km resolution climate model dataset to evaluate how regional climate change impacts solar and wind energy under a high-emission scenario. Our study considers the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region, which covers the western United States and southwestern Canada, focusing specifically on locations with existing solar and wind infrastructure. First, we conduct a historical model comparison of solar and wind energy capacity factors to highlight model uncertainties across the study area. Using future climate projections, we then assess the seasonal patterns of solar and wind capacity factors for three timeframes: historical, mid-century, and end of century. Additionally, we estimate the frequency of solar and wind resource droughts during these periods for the entire WECC and its five operational subregions, finding that certain subregions are more susceptible to energy droughts due to limited renewable resources. Finally, we present day-ahead capacity factor forecasts to support energy storage planning and provide estimates of offshore wind energy capacity within the WECC. Our results indicate that offshore wind capacity factors are nearly twice as high as onshore values, with less seasonal variation, which suggests that offshore wind could offer a more consistent renewable energy supply in the future.

climate change↗

Interplay of Topography, Fire History, and Climate on Interior Alaska Boreal Forest Vegetation Dynamics in the 21st Century: A Landsat Time-Series Analysis

This study investigates vegetation dynamics in boreal forests of Interior Alaska, focusing on topography, fire history, and climate influences. The study area includes Bonanza Creek Experimental Forest (BCEF) and surrounding region, categorized by topography (upland, floodplain, lowland) and fire history. Using Mann–Kendall trend and Theil–Sen slope analyses on Landsat-derived spectral metrics: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Burn Ratio (NBR), we observed a shift from browning to greening trends, particularly in historically burned areas. The photosynthetic activity in burned upland converged with unburned areas ~30 years post-fire, coincident with a shift towards deciduous dominance during post-fire succession. Normalized Difference Moisture Index (NDMI) trends revealed a significant increase in vegetation moisture content across all topographies. We introduce Effective Seasonal Precipitation Index (ESPI), which combines prior-year annual precipitation with current-year spring snow depth. Its positive correlation with NDMI highlights its potential for monitoring vegetation moisture dynamics at the landscape scale. Furthermore, by correlating dendrochronology-based climate indices, we found strong correlation between NDMI and normalized Supplemental Precipitation Index (nSPI), across topographies. Overall, this research provides critical insights into how climate and fire influence interior boreal vegetation, highlighting the effects of increased precipitation, and topography on shaping differential vegetation responses across the landscape.

Google Earth Engine↗

The First Habitable-zone Earth-sized Planet from TESS. III. Climate States and Characterization Prospects for TOI-700 d

We present self-consistent three-dimensional climate simulations of possible habitable states for the newly discovered habitable-zone Earth-sized planet TOI-700 d. We explore a variety of atmospheric compositions, pressures, and rotation states for both ocean-covered and completely desiccated planets in order to assess the planet’s potential for habitability. For all 20 of our simulated cases, we use our climate model outputs to synthesize transmission spectra, combined-light spectra, and integrated broadband phase curves. These climatologically informed observables will help the community assess the technological capabilities necessary for future characterization of this planet—as well as similar transiting planets discovered in the future—and will provide a guide for distinguishing possible climate states if one day we do obtain sensitive spectral observations of a habitable planet around an M star. We find that TOI-700 d is a strong candidate for a habitable world and can potentially maintain temperate surface conditions under a wide variety of atmospheric compositions. Unfortunately, the spectral feature depths from the resulting transmission spectra and the peak flux and variations from our synthesized phase curves for TOI-700 d do not exceed 10 ppm. This will likely prohibit the James Webb Space Telescope from characterizing its atmosphere; however, this motivates the community to invest in future instrumentation that perhaps can one day reveal the true nature of TOI-700 d and to continue to search for similar planets around less distant stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A satellite view of aerosols in the climate system

Anthropogenic aerosols are intricately linked to the climate system and to the hydrologic cycle. The net effect of aerosols is to cool the climate system by reflecting sunlight. Depending on their composition, aerosols can also absorb sunlight in the atmosphere, further cooling the surface but warming the atmosphere in the process. These effects of aerosols on the temperature profile, along with the role of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei, impact the hydrologic cycle, through changes in cloud cover, cloud properties and precipitation. Unravelling these feedbacks is particularly difficult because aerosols take a multitude of shapes and forms, ranging from desert dust to urban pollution, and because aerosol concentrations vary strongly over time and space. To accurately study aerosol distribution and composition therefore requires continuous observations from satellites, networks of ground-based instruments and dedicated field experiments. Increases in aerosol concentration and changes in their composition, driven by industrialization and an expanding population, may adversely affect the Earth's climate and water supply.

Review, Tutorial↗

Methyl bromide: ocean sources, ocean sinks, and climate sensitivity

The oceans play an important role in the geochemical cycle of methyl bromide (CH3Br), the major carrier of O3-destroying bromine to the stratosphere. The quantity of CH3Br produced annually in seawater is comparable to the amount entering the atmosphere each year from natural and anthropogenic sources. The production mechanism is unknown but may be biological. Most of this CH3Br is consumed in situ by hydrolysis or reaction with chloride. The size of the fraction which escapes to the atmosphere is poorly constrained; measurements in seawater and the atmosphere have been used to justify both a large oceanic CH3Br flux to the atmosphere and a small net ocean sink. Since the consumption reactions are extremely temperature-sensitive, small temperature variations have large effects on the CH3Br concentration in seawater, and therefore on the exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. The net CH3Br flux is also sensitive to variations in the rate of CH3Br production. We have quantified these effects using a simple steady state mass balance model. When CH3Br production rates are linearly scaled with seawater chlorophyll content, this model reproduces the latitudinal variations in marine CH3Br concentrations observed in the east Pacific Ocean by Singh et al. [1983] and by Lobert et al. [1995]. The apparent correlation of CH3Br production with primary production explains the discrepancies between the two observational studies, strengthening recent suggestions that the open ocean is a small net sink for atmospheric CH3Br, rather than a large net source. The Southern Ocean is implicated as a possible large net source of CH3Br to the atmosphere. Since our model indicates that both the direction and magnitude of CH3Br exchange between the atmosphere and ocean are extremely sensitive to temperature and marine productivity, and since the rate of CH3Br production in the oceans is comparable to the rate at which this compound is introduced to the atmosphere, even small perturbations to temperature or productivity can modify atmospheric CH3Br. Therefore atmospheric CH3Br should be sensitive to climate conditions. Our modeling indicates that climate-induced CH3Br variations can be larger than those resulting from small (+/- 25%) changes in the anthropogenic source, assuming that this source comprises less than half of all inputs. Future measurements of marine CH3Br, temperature, and primary production should be combined with such models to determine the relationship between marine biological activity and CH3Br production. Better understanding of the biological term is especially important to assess the importance of non-anthropogenic sources to stratospheric ozone loss and the sensitivity of these sources to global climate change.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

The Precision and Accuracy of AIRS Level 1B Radiances for Climate Studies

We investigate uncertainties in the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances based on in-flight and preflight calibration algorithms and observations. The global coverage and spectra1 resolution ((lamda)/(Delta)(lamda) ~ 1200) of AIRS enable it to produce a data set that can be used as a climate data record over the lifetime of the instrument. Therefore, we examine the effects of the uncertainties in the calibration and the detector stability on future climate studies. The uncertainties of the parameters that go into the AIRS radiometric calibration are propagated to estimate the accuracy of the radiances and any climate data record created from AIRS measurements. The calculated radiance uncertainties are consistent with observations. Algorithm enhancements may be able to reduce the radiance uncertainties by as much as 7%. We find that the orbital variation of the gain contributes a brightness temperature bias of < 0.01 K.

climate↗

Seasonal Correlations of SST, Water Vapor, and Convective Activity in Tropical Oceans: A New Hyperspectral Data Set for Climate Model Testing

The analysis of the response of the Earth Climate System to the seasonal changes of solar forcing in the tropical oceans using four years of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data between 2002 and 2006 gives new insight into amplitude and phase relationships between surface and tropospheric temperatures, humidity, and convective activity. The intensity of the convective activity is measured by counting deep convective clouds. The peaks of convective activity, temperature in the mid-troposphere, and water vapor in the 0 - 30 N and 0 - 30 S tropical ocean zonal means occur about two months after solstice, all leading the peak of the sea surface temperature by several weeks. Phase is key to the evaluation of feedback. The evaluation of climate models in terms of zonal and annual means and annual mean deviations from zonal means can now be supplemented by evaluating the phase of key atmospheric and surface parameters relative to solstice. The ability of climate models to reproduce the statistical flavor of the observed amplitudes and relative phases for broad zonal means should lead to increased confidence in the realism of their water vapor and cloud feedback algorithms. AIRS and AMSU were launched into a 705 km altitude polar sun-synchronous orbit on the EOS Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002, and have been in routine data gathering mode since September 2002.

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder↗

Seasonal Correlations of SST, Water Vapor, and Convective Activity in Tropical Oceans: A New Hyperspectral Data Set for Climate Model Testing

The analysis of the response of the Earth Climate System to the seasonal changes of solar forcing in the tropical oceans using four years of the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data between 2002 and 2006 gives new insight into amplitude and phase relationships between surface and tropospheric temperatures, humidity, and convective activity. The intensity of the convective activity is measured by counting deep convective clouds. The peaks of convective activity, temperature in the mid-troposphere, and water vapor in the 0-30 N and 0-30 S tropical ocean zonal means occur about two months after solstice, all leading the peak of the sea surface temperature by several weeks. Phase is key to the evaluation of feedback. The evaluation of climate models in terms of zonal and annual means and annual mean deviations from zonal means can now be supplemented by evaluating the phase of key atmospheric and surface parameters relative to solstice. The ability of climate models to reproduce the statistical flavor of the observed amplitudes and relative phases for broad zonal means should lead to increased confidence in the realism of their water vapor and cloud feedback algorithms. AIRS and AMSU were launched into a 705 km altitude polar sun-synchronous orbit on the EOS Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002, and have been in routine data gathering mode since September 2002.

Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)↗

Accelerating Climate and Weather Simulations through Hybrid Computing

Unconventional multi- and many-core processors (e.g. IBM (R) Cell B.E.(TM) and NVIDIA (R) GPU) have emerged as effective accelerators in trial climate and weather simulations. Yet these climate and weather models typically run on parallel computers with conventional processors (e.g. Intel, AMD, and IBM) using Message Passing Interface. To address challenges involved in efficiently and easily connecting accelerators to parallel computers, we investigated using IBM's Dynamic Application Virtualization (TM) (IBM DAV) software in a prototype hybrid computing system with representative climate and weather model components. The hybrid system comprises two Intel blades and two IBM QS22 Cell B.E. blades, connected with both InfiniBand(R) (IB) and 1-Gigabit Ethernet. The system significantly accelerates a solar radiation model component by offloading compute-intensive calculations to the Cell blades. Systematic tests show that IBM DAV can seamlessly offload compute-intensive calculations from Intel blades to Cell B.E. blades in a scalable, load-balanced manner. However, noticeable communication overhead was observed, mainly due to IP over the IB protocol. Full utilization of IB Sockets Direct Protocol and the lower latency production version of IBM DAV will reduce this overhead.

hybrid computing↗