Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Atmospheric Science”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,423 records · Page 79
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a triple-moment ice-phase cloud microphysics scheme and its application to the Single Column Atmosphere Model

Parameterization of cloud microphysics is critical for accurate simulation of weather and climate, in which the characteristics of cloud particle spectrum inevitably further affect climate simulation by changing the cloud evolution and cloud radiation effects. The popular currently used double-moment cloud microphysics schemes in numerical models can predict the intercept (N 0 ) and slope (λ) parameters of cloud particle spectrum but cannot predict the spectral shape parameter (μ), which hinders accurate description of cloud physical processes in climate models. Therefore, in the present study, we built upon the ideas of previously developed triple-moment cloud microphysics scheme, considered radar reflectivity factor as the third predictor in addition to number and mass concentration, and introduced its related prediction equation to the Single Column Atmosphere Model Version 5.3 (SCAM5.3). Moreover, the relevant microphysical process formulas in the model were revised, and a triple-moment ice-cloud microphysics scheme was constructed to predict the μ of ice particle spectrum. Based on this model, a 29-day case of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program in the summer of 1997 (ARM97) was simulated, and the differences in cloud fraction and radiation simulations between the double- and triple-moment schemes were analysed. The μ of ice particle spectrum predicted by the triple-moment scheme mainly ranged from 0 to 4; the peak value was around 2, and at least 85% of the μ values were greater than the default 0. Therefore, the μ=0 setting in the double-moment scheme is unreasonable. Moreover, the developed triple-moment ice-cloud microphysics scheme yielded a narrower ice particle spectrum, which was closer to the observation results of previous studies, than the double-moment cloud microphysics scheme (e.g., height=233 hPa). Furthermore, compared with the double-moment scheme, the triple-moment scheme achieved closer simulations of the cloud fraction observations, particularly for ice clouds in the upper levels. Considering the close association between cloud fraction and radiation, the error with the triple-moment scheme was smaller than that with the double-moment scheme regardless of the shortwave (surface downward shortwave radiation, net downward shortwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere, and net shortwave radiation at the surface) or longwave (surface downward longwave radiation and net longwave radiation at the surface) flux density. Finally, the improvement mechanism of the triple-moment scheme on cloud fraction and radiation simulations was explored. The major reason is that the triple-moment scheme weakens the autoconversion of ice crystal to form snow and enhances the growth process of ice crystal deposition, thereby increasing the mass concentration of ice crystals and ice cloud fraction. Overall, the developed triple-moment ice-cloud microphysics scheme can help improve the simulation ability of models for cloud-climate feedback and other processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Adapting C 4 photosynthesis to atmospheric change and increasing productivity by elevating Rubisco content in sorghum and sugarcane

Meta-analyses and theory show that with rising atmospheric [CO 2 ], Rubisco has become the greatest limitation to light-saturated leaf CO 2 assimilation rates (A sat ) in C 4 crops. So would transgenically increasing Rubisco increase A sat and result in increased productivity in the field? Here, we successfully overexpressed the Rubisco small subunit (RbcS) with Rubisco accumulation factor 1 (Raf1) in both sorghum and sugarcane, resulting in significant increases in Rubisco content of 13 to 25% and up to 90% respectively. A sat increased 12 to 15% and Rubisco enzyme activity ~40% in three independent transgenic events of both species. Sorghum plants also showed increased speeds of photosynthetic induction and decreased bundle sheath leakiness. These improvements translated into average increases of 15.5% in biomass in field-grown sorghum and a 37 to 81% increase in greenhouse-grown sugarcane. This suggests a potential opportunity to achieve substantial increases in productivity of this key economically important clade of C 4 crops, future proofing their value under global atmospheric change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Compiled TBS data from Oliktok Point from ICARUS, AVPOP, and POPEYE

The dataset encompasses QA/QC TBS data, including TBS altitude, atmospheric pressure, dew point, POPs number concentrations and mean aerosol size, relative humidity, temperature, equivalent potential temperature, equivalent temperature, and date and time. These data are provided per day for at least one TBS flight. Supporting data from the AMF3 aligned with the timestamps of the TBS data include cloud base distance from TBS, if the time corresponds to cloud base transit of the TBS, surface-based pressure, surface-based precipitation rate, surface-based UHSAS data, ceilometer cloud base height, KAZR cloud top height, and MWR liquid water content. Both POPS and UHSAS aerosol number concentrations are provided as: (1) absolute (i.e. concentrations for each instrument's total size range) and (2) the overlapping size range (i.e. the same size bins for both instruments).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solar, Atmospheric, and Volcanic Impacts on 10 Be Depositions in Greenland and Antarctica During the Last 100 Years

Cosmogenic radionuclides (e.g., 10 Be) from ice cores are a powerful tool for solar reconstructions back in time. However, superimposed on the solar signal, other factors like weather/climate and volcanic influences on 10 Be can complicate the interpretation of 10 Be data. A comprehensive study of 10 Be records over the recent period, when atmospheric 10 Be production and meteorological conditions are relatively well-known, can improve our interpretation of 10 Be records. Here we conduct a systematic study of the production and climate/volcanic signals in Antarctica and Greenland 10 Be records, including a new 10 Be record from the East GReenland Ice-core Project site. Greenland and Antarctica records show significant decreasing trends (5%–6.5%/decade) for 1900–1950, which is comparable with the expected production rate inferred from sunspot observations. By comparing 10 Be records with reanalysis data and atmospheric circulation patterns, 10 Be records from Southern/Southeastern Greenland are significantly correlated with the Scandinavia pattern. Stacking 10 Be records from different locations can enhance the production signal. However, this approach is not always straightforward as uncertainties in some records can lead to a weaker solar signal. A strategy can be employed to select records for the bipolar stack by comparing Greenland records with Antarctica records, assuming the shared signal is a production signal. Finally, we observe significant increases (36%–64%) in 10 Be depositions in Greenland related to the Agung eruption. This large increase in Greenland 10 Be records after the Agung eruption, could be partly explained by the enhanced air mass transport from mid-latitudes coinciding with the decreased precipitation en-route.

10Be↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of Atmospheric River Vapor Transport and Precipitation to Uniform Sea Surface Temperature Increases

Abstract Filaments of intense vapor transport called atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for the majority of poleward vapor transport in the midlatitudes. Despite their importance to the hydrologic cycle, there remain many unanswered questions about changes to ARs in a warming climate. In this study we perform a series of escalating uniform SST increases (+2, +4, and +6K, respectively) in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 in an aquaplanet configuration to evaluate the thermodynamic and dynamical response of AR vapor content, transport, and precipitation to warming SSTs. We find that AR column integrated water vapor (IWV) is especially sensitive to SST and increases by 6.3–9.7% per degree warming despite decreasing relative humidity through much of the column. Further analysis provides a more nuanced view of AR IWV changes: Since SST warming is modest compared to that in the midtroposphere, computing fractional changes in IWV with respect to SST results in finding spuriously large increases. Meanwhile, results here show that AR IWV transport increases relatively uniformly with temperature and at consistently lower rates than IWV, as modulated by systematically decreasing low‐level wind speeds. Similarly, changes in AR precipitation are related to a compensatory relationship between enhanced near‐surface moisture and damped vertical motions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing South American Water and Climate Science Through Multi-Decadal Convection-Permitting Modeling

The South America Affinity Group (SAAG) was established in early 2019 by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Water Systems Program as a community effort focused on improving hydroclimate science over South America. SAAG supports large research efforts such as the ANDEX Regional Hydroclimate Program as well as individual research groups. The group started with a dozen members and quickly grew to over 100 participants from more than ten countries. For the past four years, the SAAG has been meeting online every two weeks and has organized sessions at international conferences such as the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting and the Convection-Permitting Climate Workshop. At the core of the SAAG effort are two multi-decadal convection permitting (CP) model simulations with 4-km grid spacing for historical and future climates over the South American continent. Additionally, a major observational data collection effort has been undertaken, including in-situ station data from South American meteorological and water services, gridded products, satellite-based observations, and field campaign data. In conclusion, this article discusses the research needs and scientific goals that drive this community of scientists with diverse backgrounds and interests.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Future changes in extreme precipitation over the San Francisco Bay Area: Dependence on atmospheric river and extratropical cyclone events

Extreme precipitation poses a major challenge for local governments, including the City and County of San Francisco, California, as flooding can damage and destroy infrastructure and property. As the climate continues to warm, reliable future precipitation projections are needed to provide the best possible information to decision makers. However, future changes in the magnitude of extreme precipitation are uncertain, as current state-of-the-art global climate models are typically run at relatively coarse horizontal resolutions that require the use of convective parameterization and have difficulty simulating observed extreme rainfall rates. Here, we performed ensembles of convection-permitting regional climate model simulations to investigate how five historically impactful extreme precipitation events over the San Francisco Bay Area could change if similar events occurred in future climates. We found that changes in storm-total precipitation depend strongly on storm type. Precipitation associated with an atmospheric river (AR) accompanied by an extratropical cyclone (ETC) is projected to increase at a rate exceeding (by up to 1.5 times) the theoretical Clausius Clapeyron scaling of 6–7% per °C warming. On the other hand, future precipitation changes are weak or negative for events characterized by an AR only, despite increases in precipitable water and integrated vapor transport that are similar to those of the co-occurring AR and ETC events. The differences in the sign of future precipitation change between AR-only events and co-occurring AR and ETC events is instead linked with changes in mid-tropospheric vertical velocity. Given that the majority of observed ARs are associated with an ETC, this research has important implications for future precipitation impacts over the Bay Area, as it indicates that storm-total precipitation associated with the most common type of storm event may increase by up to 26–37% in 2100 relative to historical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Simulating Real Atmospheric Boundary Layers at Gray-Zone Resolutions: How Do Currently Available Turbulence Parameterizations Perform?

Recent computational and modeling advances have led a diverse modeling community to experiment with atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) simulations at subkilometer horizontal scales. Accurately parameterizing turbulence at these scales is a complex problem. The modeling solutions proposed to date are still in the development phase and remain largely unvalidated. This work assesses the performance of methods currently available in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to represent ABL turbulence at a gray-zone grid spacing of 333 m. We consider three one-dimensional boundary layer parameterizations (MYNN, YSU and Shin-Hong) and coarse large-eddy simulations (LES). The reference dataset consists of five real-case simulations performed with WRF-LES nested down to 25 m. Results reveal that users should refrain from coarse LES and favor the scale-aware, Shin-Hong parameterization over traditional one-dimensional schemes. Overall, the spread in model performance is large for the cellular convection regime corresponding to the majority of our cases, with coarse LES overestimating turbulent energy across scales and YSU underestimating it and failing to reproduce its horizontal structure. Despite yielding the best results, the Shin-Hong scheme overestimates the effect of grid dependence on turbulent transport, highlighting the outstanding need for improved solutions to seamlessly parameterize turbulence across scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tethered balloon system and High-Resolution Mass Spectrometry Reveal Increased Organonitrates Aloft Compared to the Ground Level

Atmospheric particles play critical roles in climate. However, significant knowledge gaps remain regarding the vertically resolved organic molecular-level composition of atmospheric particles due to aloft sampling challenges. To address this, we use a tethered balloon system at the Southern Great Plains Observatory and high-resolution mass spectrometry to, respectively, collect and characterize organic molecular formulas (MF) in the ground level and aloft (up to 750 m) samples. We show that organic MF uniquely detected aloft were dominated by organonitrates (139 MF; 54% of all uniquely detected aloft MF). Organonitrates that were uniquely detected aloft featured elevated O/C ratios (0.73 ± 0.23) compared to aloft organonitrates that were commonly observed at the ground level (0.63 ± 0.22). Unique aloft organic molecular composition was positively associated with increased cloud coverage, increased aloft relative humidity (~40% increase compared to ground level), and decreased vertical wind variance. Furthermore, 29% of extremely low volatility organic compounds in the aloft sample were truly unique to the aloft sample compared to the ground level, emphasizing potential oligomer formation at higher altitudes. Overall, this study highlights the importance of considering vertically resolved organic molecular composition (particularly for organonitrates) and hypothesizes that aqueous phase transformations and vertical wind variance may be key variables affecting the molecular composition of aloft organic aerosol.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Harmonizing solar induced fluorescence across spatial scales, instruments, and extraction methods using proximal and airborne remote sensing: A multi-scale study in a soybean field

Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has been widely used to track vegetation photosynthesis at different scales ranging from in-situ measurements to satellite products. Airborne platforms sample SIF data at a spatial scale intermediate between in-situ and satellite, matching that of ground measurement (e.g. flux tower footprints and other field sampling), enabling us to explore causes of SIF variation and validate satellite-based SIF products. However, harmonizing SIF across sensors and platforms (correcting for systematic errors to yield a consistent, comparable SIF product) is challenging because SIF can be retrieved in different absorption windows, with different instruments and methods complicating the comparison between different observational levels (i.e., ground, airborne, satellites) and between sites equipped with different instruments with varying optical properties (spectral resolution and sampling intervals, spatial resolution). Additionally, the spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric properties can influence the retrieval of the weak SIF signal. Because of these complications, direct comparisons of airborne and ground SIF across scales are rarely attempted. Here, in this study, we combined airborne SIF data with simultaneous ‘ground truth’ data collected by stationary and mobile platforms in a soybean field in Nebraska, USA. In this effort, we tested several SIF extraction methods, including Fraunhofer Line Discrimination (FLD), improved Fraunhofer Line Discrimination (iFLD), Spectral Fitting Method (SFM), SpecFit, and a Singular Vector Decomposition (SVD) method. The SpecFit method was sensitive to the 715–740 nm water bands and removing the water bands in the fitting process yielded better agreement between the airborne and ground SIF spectra. Accurate estimation of the ground level downwelling irradiance obtained by ground measurements over a calibration target improved agreement between airborne and ground SIF retrievals at the O 2 A band, and allowed us to derive a SIF dataset with improved agreement across platforms and sampling scales. This experimental approach provided a method for generating comparable SIF signals across instruments, methods and platforms, which is critical to understanding the SIF-GPP relationship at different scales and to cross-validate the diversity of platforms used for satellite products calibration and validation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric River Frequency-Category Characteristics Shape U.S. West Coast Runoff

Abstractrunoff response to atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the U.S. West Coast. We focused on runoff time series variations impacted by AR characteristics (e.g., category and frequency) and land preconditions during Northern Hemisphere cool seasons in the period of 1940–2023. Results show that high-category ARs significantly increase local runoff with higher hourly precipitation rates leading to a greater incremental rate and peak runoff. Extreme runoff increases greatly with the AR category with an increase rate up to 12.5 times stronger than non-extreme runoff. Besides the AR category, land preconditions such as soil moisture and snowpack also play crucial roles in modulating runoff response. We found that runoff induced by weak-category ARs is more sensitive to land preconditions than high-category ARs, with high peak runoff occurring when soil is nearly saturated. Additionally, more than 50% of high-peak-runoff events in snow-covered grid cells are associated with rain-on-snow events particularly for the events associated with weaker ARs. Regression analysis reveals that AR precipitation and land preconditions jointly influence runoff, emphasizing the importance of including soil moisture and snowpack levels in AR impact assessments. The study also highlights the intensified runoff response to back-to-back ARs with short intervals, which may become more frequent with climate warming, posing increased flood risks via facilitating wet soil conditions. Our findings have significant implications for AR risk predictions and the development of prediction models for AR-induced runoff.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Overview of the MOSAiC expedition: Snow and sea ice

Year-round observations of the physical snow and ice properties and processes that govern the ice pack evolution and its interaction with the atmosphere and the ocean were conducted during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition of the research vessel Polarstern in the Arctic Ocean from October 2019 to September 2020. This work was embedded into the interdisciplinary design of the 5 MOSAiC teams, studying the atmosphere, the sea ice, the ocean, the ecosystem, and biogeochemical processes. The overall aim of the snow and sea ice observations during MOSAiC was to characterize the physical properties of the snow and ice cover comprehensively in the central Arctic over an entire annual cycle. This objective was achieved by detailed observations of physical properties and of energy and mass balance of snow and ice. By studying snow and sea ice dynamics over nested spatial scales from centimeters to tens of kilometers, the variability across scales can be considered. On-ice observations of in situ and remote sensing properties of the different surface types over all seasons will help to improve numerical process and climate models and to establish and validate novel satellite remote sensing methods; the linkages to accompanying airborne measurements, satellite observations, and results of numerical models are discussed. We found large spatial variabilities of snow metamorphism and thermal regimes impacting sea ice growth. We conclude that the highly variable snow cover needs to be considered in more detail (in observations, remote sensing, and models) to better understand snow-related feedback processes. The ice pack revealed rapid transformations and motions along the drift in all seasons. The number of coupled ice–ocean interface processes observed in detail are expected to guide upcoming research with respect to the changing Arctic sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Integrating continuous atmospheric boundary layer and tower-based flux measurements to advance understanding of land-atmosphere interactions

The atmospheric boundary layer mediates the exchange of energy, matter, and momentum between the land surface and the free troposphere, integrating a range of physical, chemical, and biological processes and is defined as the lowest layer of the atmosphere (ranging from a few meters to 3 km). In this review, we investigate how continuous, automated observations of the atmospheric boundary layer can enhance the scientific value of co-located eddy covariance measurements of land-atmosphere fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, as are being made at FLUXNET sites worldwide. We highlight four key opportunities to integrate tower-based flux measurements with continuous, long-term atmospheric boundary layer measurements: (1) to interpret surface flux and atmospheric boundary layer exchange dynamics and feedbacks at flux tower sites, (2) to support flux footprint modelling, the interpretation of surface fluxes in heterogeneous terrain, and quality control of eddy covariance flux measurements, (3) to support regional-scale modeling and upscaling of surface fluxes to continental scales, and (4) to quantify land-atmosphere coupling and validate its representation in Earth system models. Adding a suite of atmospheric boundary layer measurements to eddy covariance flux tower sites, and supporting the sharing of these data to tower networks, would allow the Earth science community to address new emerging research questions, better interpret ongoing flux tower measurements, and would present novel opportunities for collaborations between FLUXNET scientists and atmospheric and remote sensing scientists.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Gas and Propane Combustion from Stoves Emits Benzene and Increases Indoor Air Pollution

Exposure pathways to the carcinogen benzene are well-established from tobacco smoke, oil and gas development, refining, gasoline pumping, and gasoline and diesel combustion. Combustion has also been linked to the formation of nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and formaldehyde indoors from gas stoves. To our knowledge, however, no research has quantified the formation of benzene indoors from gas combustion by stoves. Across 87 homes in California and Colorado, natural gas and propane combustion emitted detectable and repeatable levels of benzene that in some homes raised indoor benzene concentrations above well-established health benchmarks. Mean benzene emissions from gas and propane burners on high and ovens set to 350 °F ranged from 2.8 to 6.5 μg min –1 , 10 to 25 times higher than emissions from electric coil and radiant alternatives; neither induction stoves nor the food being cooked emitted detectable benzene. Benzene produced by gas and propane stoves also migrated throughout homes, in some cases elevating bedroom benzene concentrations above chronic health benchmarks for hours after the stove was turned off. Combustion of gas and propane from stoves may be a substantial benzene exposure pathway and can reduce indoor air quality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

New Evidence for the Importance of Non-Stomatal Pathways in Ozone Deposition During Extreme Heat and Dry Anomalies

Dry deposition could partially explain the observed response in ambient ozone to extreme hot and dry episodes. We examine the response of ozone deposition to heat and dry anomalies using three long-term co-located ecosystem-scale carbon dioxide, water vapor and ozone flux measurement records. We find that, as expected, canopy stomatal conductance generally decreases during days with dry air or soil. However, during hot days, concurrent increases in non-stomatal conductance are inferred at all three sites, which may be related to several temperature-sensitive processes not represented in the current generation of big-leaf models. This may offset the reduction in stomatal conductance, leading to smaller net reduction, or even net increase, in total deposition velocity. We find the response of deposition velocity to soil dryness may be related to its impact on photosynthetic activity, though considerable variability exists. Our findings emphasize the need for better understanding and representation of non-stomatal ozone deposition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the Meridional Extent of Adiabatic Mixing in the Stratosphere Using Age-Of-Air

Wave-induced adiabatic mixing in the winter midlatitudes is one of the key processes impacting stratospheric transport. Understanding its strength and structure is vital to understanding the distribution of trace gases and their modulation under a changing climate. Age-of-air is often used to understand stratospheric transport, and this study proposes refinements to the vertical age gradient theory of Linz et al. (2021), https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD035199. The theory assumes exchange of air between a well-mixed tropics and a well-mixed extratropics, separated by a transport barrier, quantifying the adiabatic mixing flux across the interface using age-based measures. These assumptions are re-evaluated and a refined framework that includes the effects of meridional tracer gradients is established to quantify the mixing flux. This is achieved, in part, by computing a circulation streamfunction in age-potential temperature coordinates to generate a complete distribution of parcel ages being mixed in the midlatitudes. The streamfunction quantifies the “true” age of parcels mixed between the tropics and the extratropics. Applying the revised theory to an idealized and a comprehensive climate model reveals that ignoring the meridional gradients in age leads to an underestimation of the wave-driven mixing flux. Stronger, and qualitatively similar fluxes are obtained in both models, especially in the lower-to-middle stratosphere. While the meridional span of adiabatic mixing in the two models exhibits some differences, they show that the deep tropical pipe, that is, latitudes equatorward of 15° barely mix with older midlatitude air. The novel age-potential temperature circulation can be used to quantify additional aspects of stratospheric transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Scale‐Adaptive Urban Hydrologic Framework: Incorporating Network‐Level Storm Drainage Pipes Representation

Abstract Below‐ground urban stormwater networks (BUSNs) significantly influence urban flood dynamics, yet their representation at the watershed or larger scales remains challenging. We introduce a scalable urban hydrologic framework that centers on a novel network‐level BUSN representation, balancing the needs for physical basis, parameter parsimony, and computational efficiency. Our framework conceptualizes an urban watershed into four interacting zones: hillslopes (natural), storm‐sewersheds (urban), a sub‐network channel (tributaries), and a main channel. We develop an innovative Graph Theory‐based algorithm to derive network‐level BUSN parameters from publicly available datasets, enabling efficient, scalable parameterization. We demonstrate this framework's applicability at nine representative watersheds in the Houston metropolitan region, USA, with urban imperviousness ranging from 0% to 64% and drainage areas ranging from 24 to 302 . Our model achieves satisfying computational efficiency, completing hourly time step simulations for 18 years in less than 5 sec per watershed on a standard PC. Validation against observed daily streamflow confirms that the model can capture small‐to‐large flood peaks and seasonal and annual water balance over these watersheds. Comparisons with the National Water Model show better performance in predicting flood peaks and overall water balance, underscoring the promises of our new framework for urban hydrologic modeling at large scales. Furthermore, analysis reveals nonlinear relationships between BUSNs' designed capacities and flood reduction effects. Our approach bridges the gap between detailed hydraulic and large‐scale hydrologic models, providing a valuable tool for urban flood prediction and management across broader spatial and temporal scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk—a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease “sparks” that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗