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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

Hydride Reprecipitation in Prototypical 17x17 PWR Fuel Rods after Simulated Vacuum Drying Conditions

Light water reactor (LWR) fuel rod cladding picks up hydrogen as it oxidizes in reactor. Once the hydrogen concentration exceeds the solubility limit, zirconium hydride platelets precipitate, generally in the circumferential direction. In preparation for dry storage, elevated temperatures can dissolve some of the circumferential hydrides, which during cooling can then reprecipitate in a direction perpendicular to the hoop stress (radially). From 2019 to 2024, ORNL published a series of reports that included metallographic observations of cladding after a thermal transient to 400°C followed by slow cooling. The simulated dry storage process was performed on three full-length 17x17 PWR fuel rods at their as-discharged rod internal pressure. There were two important observations from the metallographic examinations of these heat-treated rods: (1) the propensity for hydride reorientation is strongly influenced by nearby as-discharged precipitated hydrides, (2) the radial hydrides observed near the cladding inner diameter were often associated with cracks in the pellet. Subsequent modeling using the BISON fuel performance code that considered the effects of pellet cracks and pellet-cladding bonding observed in high-burnup fuel support the conclusion that pellet cracks enhance the local hoop stress in the cladding creating preferential sites for hydride reorientation, and that the influence of the pellet cannot be ignored in accurate fuel rod performance predictions.

Montgomery, Rose [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000286038936)↗

Expanding the Material Search Space for Multivalent Cathodes

Multivalent batteries are an energy storage technology with the potential to surpass lithium-ion batteries; however, their performance have been limited by the low voltages and poor solid-state ionic mobility of available cathodes. A computational screening approach to identify high-performance multivalent intercalation cathodes among materials that do not contain the working ion of interest has been developed, which greatly expands the search space that can be considered for material discovery. This approach has been applied to magnesium cathodes as a proof of concept, and four resulting candidate materials [NASICON V 2 (PO 4 ) 3 , birnessite NaMn 4 O 8 , tavorite MnPO 4 F, and spinel MnO 2 ] are discussed in further detail. In examining the ion migration environment and associated Mg 2+ migration energy in these materials, local energy maxima are found to correspond with pathway positions where Mg 2+ passes through a plane of anion atoms. While previous studies have established the influence of local coordination on multivalent ion mobility, these results suggest that considering both the type of the local bonding environment and available free volume for the mobile ion along its migration pathway can be significant for improving solid-state mobility.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Fabrication and Testing of DOE Standard Canister Closure Leak Test Assembly

DOE manages over 300 types of spent nuclear fuel (SNF), many of which are located at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) site. Managing this large variety of SNF for storage, transportation, and disposal poses a challenge to DOE. The Idaho Cleanup Project and INL are collaborating on the DOE SNF Road-Ready Demonstration (“Road-Ready Demonstration”), which will develop and demonstrate the designs, technology, processes, and regulatory framework for packaging DOE-managed SNF for “road-ready dry storage.” Road-ready dry storage is an SNF management concept in which SNF is packaged into dry, sealed canisters that are then placed in onsite storage in anticipation of later transport and disposition. The forward-looking goal of the Road-Ready Demonstration is to establish the foundation for a large-scale road-ready dry storage program at the INL site. In support of establishing a large-scale road-ready dry storage program at the INL site, the Road-Ready Demonstration will first package Fort St. Vrain SNF currently in dry storage at INL into several DOE Standard Canisters (DOESCs). These DOESCs will in turn be loaded into another containment similar to commercial multi-purpose canisters. This multi-purpose canister will then be compatible with a transportation or storage system, such as a storage cask for interim storage or transportation package for offsite transport. These DOESCs will remain sealed over the course of their storage, transportation, and applicable disposal functions. The closure process for the DOESC will include fuel and basket loading, welding, inspection, leak testing, and, if needed, repair. As a follow-up to previous discussions on the design of the DOE Closure Leak Test Assembly (LTA), this report describes recent fabrication and testing efforts performed at INL. DOESCs are sealed by two sequential gas tungsten arc welds, both of which are performed by remotely operated and semiautomatic welding systems. The first weld is a circumferential pipe weld that completes the assembly of the canister body and lid assembly. The second and final closure weld attaches the vent plug to the vent socket via a butt joint. After the second weld is performed, the welds are helium leak tested using an evacuated envelope technique. The LTA was designed for both remote and manual operation. This report describes the fabrication and performance testing associated with the evacuated envelope technique. INL staff designed, fabricated, and tested the LTA at INL facilities. This testing included establishing technique and system sensitivities in accordance with ASME and American National Standards Institute N14.5 requirements. Forthcoming work will cover such areas as design optimization, process and personnel qualification, and implementation in Road-Ready Demonstration operations.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Decoupling Conductivity and Solubility in Electrolytes Using Microemulsions

Redox flow batteries have recently received considerable attention as possible large-scale energy storage devices, but their low energy density has inhibited widespread application. In this work, a novel strategy of decoupling conductivity and solubility of electrolytes using microemulsion is put forward to enhance ionic conduction of non-aqueous electrolytes, increase the selectivity of active species, improve the battery voltage, and eventually achieve the possibility of high energy density. We report a study of the electrochemistry of ferrocene in single phase Tween® 20/1-butanol/H 2 O/toluene microemulsion system at 20 °C. At low and intermediate surfactant to water weight ratios (<0.5/0.5), the voltammogram exhibits reversible electrochemical behavior, while at high surfactant levels the curves show lower levels of reversibility. The latter voltammograms have a form typically associated with high resistance in solution, consistent with a gradual transition in microstructure as surfactant levels increase. This change in structure is supported by correlations with conductivity results based on the literature. The voltammograms show little evidence of anomalies in double layer capacitance or electrode "blocking" by droplets, suggesting that the electron transfer is indeed occurring in a facile manner between the electrode and the ferrocene inside the oil phase.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Boosting solid oxide fuel cell performance via electrolyte thickness reduction and cathode infiltration

Increasing the power density and reducing the operating temperature of solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) is important for improving commercial viability. Here we discuss two strategies for achieving such improvements in Ni–YSZ supported SOFCs – electrolyte thickness reduction and cathode infiltration. Microstructural and electrochemical results are presented showing the effect of reducing YSZ/GDC electrolyte thickness from 8 to 2.5 μm, and the effect of PrO x infiltration into the LSCF–GDC cathode. Both of these measures are effective, particularly at lower temperatures, leading to an increase in the maximum power density at 650 °C from 0.4 to 0.95 W cm –2 , for example. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy utilizing subtractive analysis shows that PrO x enhances the cathode charge transfer process. Reducing the electrolyte thickness reduces not only the cell ohmic resistance but also the electrode polarization resistance. Furthermore, the latter effect appears to be an artifact associated with a slight increase in the steam partial pressure at the anode due to minor gas leakage across the thinner electrolyte.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Mastering the synergy between Na 3 V 2 (PO 4 ) 2 F 3 electrode and electrolyte: A must for Na-ion cells

Sodium-ion batteries are emerging as suitable energy storage devices for special applications such as high-power devices with the advantages of being cheaper and more sustainable than the Li-ion equivalents. The sodium ion cells consisting of polyanionic Na 3 V 2 (PO 4 ) 2 F 3 - hard carbon electrodes exhibit high power rate capabilities but limited cycle life, especially at high temperatures. To circumvent this drawback we herein conducted in-depth analyses of the origins of structural degradations occurring in Na 3 V 2 (PO 4 ) 2 F 3 electrodes upon long cycling. Vanadium dissolution with associated parasitic reactions is identified as one of the major reasons for cell failure. Its amount varies depending on the electrolyte, with NaTFSI-based electrolyte showing the least vanadium dissolution as the TFSI - anion decomposes without producing acidic impurities, in contrast to the NaPF 6 -based electrolyte. The dissolved vanadium species undergoes oxidation and reduction processes at the Na 3 V 2 (PO 4 ) 2 F 3 and HC electrodes, respectively, with the electrochemical signature of these processes being used as a fingerprint to identify state of health of the 18650 cells. Here, having found that surface reactivity is the primary cause of vanadium dissolution we provide methods to mitigate it by combining surface coating and optimized electrolyte formulation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Perturbation of tonoplast sucrose transport alters carbohydrate utilization for seasonal growth and defense metabolism in coppiced poplar

Abstract Nonstructural carbohydrate reserves of stems and roots underpin overall tree fitness and productivity under short-rotation management practices such as coppicing for bioenergy. While sucrose and starch comprise the predominant stem carbohydrate reserves of Populus, utilization for fitness and agricultural productivity is understood primarily in terms of starch turnover. The tonoplast sucrose transport protein SUT4 modulates sucrose export from source leaves to distant sinks during photoautotrophic growth, but the possibility of its involvement in remobilizing carbohydrates from storage organs during heterotrophic growth has not been explored. Here, we used PtaSUT4-knockout mutants of Populus tremula × P. alba (INRA 717-1B4) in winter (cool) and summer (warm) glasshouse coppicing experiments to assess SUT4 involvement in reserve utilization. Conditions preceding and supporting summer sprouting were considered favorable for growth, while those preceding and supporting cool temperature sprouting were suboptimal akin to conditions associated with coppicing as generally practiced. Epicormic bud emergence was delayed in sut4 mutants following lower temperature ‘winter’ but not summer coppicing. Winter xylem hexose increases were observed in control but not in sut4 stumps after coppicing. The magnitude of starch and sucrose reserve depletion was similar in control and sut4 stumps during the winter and did not explain the sprouting and xylem hexose differences. However, winter maintenance costs appeared higher in sut4 based partly on Krebs cycle intermediate levels. In control plants, bark accrual of abundant defense metabolites, including salicinoids and condensed tannins, was higher in summer than in winter, but this increase of summer defense allocations was attenuated in sut4 mutants. Temperature-sensitive trade-offs between growth and other priorities may therefore depend on SUT4 in Populus.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Generic Nonlinear Aerodynamic Model for Aircraft

A generic model of the aerodynamic coefficients was developed using wind tunnel databases for eight different aircraft and multivariate orthogonal functions. For each database and each coefficient, models were determined using polynomials expanded about the state and control variables, and an othgonalization procedure. A predicted squared-error criterion was used to automatically select the model terms. Modeling terms picked in at least half of the analyses, which totalled 45 terms, were retained to form the generic nonlinear aerodynamic (GNA) model. Least squares was then used to estimate the model parameters and associated uncertainty that best fit the GNA model to each database. Nonlinear flight simulations were used to demonstrate that the GNA model produces accurate trim solutions, local behavior (modal frequencies and damping ratios), and global dynamic behavior (91% accurate state histories and 80% accurate aerodynamic coefficient histories) under large-amplitude excitation. This compact aerodynamics model can be used to decrease on-board memory storage requirements, quickly change conceptual aircraft models, provide smooth analytical functions for control and optimization applications, and facilitate real-time parametric system identification.

Grauer, Jared A.↗

Synthetic Calcium Carbonate Production by Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) Mineralization of Industrial Waste Brines

The global scale of CO 2 emission has crossed 36 B tons, and the United State represents 14% of the total emissions. In light of the high cost associated with current CO 2 capture processes ($60-to-150 per ton of CO 2 ), carbon capture and utilization (CCU), wherein CO 2 is converted to beneficial products, provides a pragmatic path to overcome the economic barrier for CO 2 emissions control. In particular, CO 2 mineralization offers an attractive route as it produces high-value mineral carbonates that sequester CO 2 in a stable form. For instance, fine precipitated calcium carbonate, a valuable product with unit price in the range of $230-280/t and a global market projected to reach 99 M tons in 2020, can be produced by capturing CO 2 within aqueous Ca 2+ solution. However, two critical challenges need to be overcome—(i) the need for costly processes such as electrolysis or addition of alkali hydroxides to maintain alkalinity during mineralization, and (ii) the geographic availability of Ca-rich solutions (or brines) which often renders efficient integration with power plants impractical. To simultaneously address these challenges, this project developed two novel routes to enable carbonate production based on efficient CO 2 mineralization. In one variation, the project developed a new alkaline carbonation process to capture CO 2 and produce calcite precipitates from coal ashes. Herein, coal ash is carbonated first in a sodium carbonate solution. The carbonation reaction produces sodium hydroxide and raises the solution pH. This high-pH hydroxide solution is then used for CO 2 capture, which converts the sodium hydroxide solution back to sodium carbonate to repeat the carbonation cycle. The carbonated ash residue is refined with a CO 2 pressure swing step to produce high-purity precipitated calcium carbonate. In another variation, Ca-rich produced water brine serves as the Ca-source to mineralize CO 2 . An H + /Na + ion-exchange cycle was designed to provision alkalinity during mineralization and regenerate the ion-exchange reagent in brines with high salinity. Ca-depleted brines can then be treated within a centralized water treatment facility. Both variations beneficially utilize reject streams—such as coal ashes and brines from oil and gas extraction or CO 2 storage operations—that are available at substantial quantities in the vicinity of coal power plants within the U.S. In addition to technology development, this project included techno-economic and life-cycle analysis to identify technically and economically appropriate solutions for power plants in different geographic locations. Taken together, the project provides a unique route to integrate CO 2 emissions control and waste handling/treatment for coal power plants, while producing a high-value product to offset the economic burden associated with waste management. The developed processes utilize post-desulfurization flue gas from coal-fired power plants as is. The CO 2 conversion reactions are performed in alkaline brines at ambient pressure from the flue gas, thereby minimizing the energy burden. By beneficiation of industrial waste streams with low energy input, the processes offers significant technical advantages in energy and CO 2 footprint over the current paradigm of precipitated calcium carbonate production, which involves calcination of limestone at processing temperatures in excess of 800 °C. Overall, this project developed viable CO 2 mineralization processes while strategically maximizing the economic benefit.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Assessment of Cold Spraying Mild-Steel Powder onto Mild-Steel Substrate for Development of Waste Tank Repair System - 20515

Infrastructure for nuclear waste storage and processing (e.g., waste tanks, transfer pipelines, evaporators) at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site has been in service well beyond its original design life. Past corrosion control methods at Hanford for waste tanks have not been fully successful, as evidenced by leaks forming in tank AY-102, the first double-shell tank (DST) constructed, and significant degradation detected in the primary tanks of AP-102 and AY-101. Failure of infrastructure components can pose a significant risk to the environment, worker safety, and project schedules. Therefore, remotely deployable methods for repairing and extending the service life of the existing tank waste infrastructure are needed. Cold spray has been identified as a potential technique for performing in situ repairs and material buildup for life extension of waste storage and processing infrastructure. Cold-spray repair methods and technology are well-established and are used extensively by industry and the military for making repairs using dissimilar materials. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory is evaluating the process of making repairs using mild-steel powder applied to a mild-steel substrate to minimize the galvanic corrosion potential. This paper presents the initial results for a feasibility ('go/no-go') assessment as to whether low-density deposits with sound metallurgic bonds, to build-back steel plate material, can be achieved using existing commercial cold-spray equipment. An assessment of steel-on-steel deposit is necessary to determine if cold spray is a viable candidate for DST carbon steel plate restoration/repair and thus DST service life extension. Powder properties and preparation requirements have been investigated and operating conditions and parameters for depositing a cold-spray buildup of mild steel on a mild-steel substrate have been determined. Soundness of metallurgic bonding as a function of the operating parameters exercised and results from applying cold spray to lay a deposit over simulated small-diameter flaws in 1/2-inch mild-steel plate are presented. Application of in situ cold-spray repair to the DOE complex has the potential to reduce cost and schedule impacts associated with component failures and the need to procure and construct replacement infrastructure. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Degradation by Kinking in Layered Cathode Materials

Layered cathode materials are commonly used in lithium and sodium ion batteries, but they are prone to degradation under electrochemical cycling during battery operation. Here we report a new type of degradation mechanism through the electrochemically induced mechanical buckling and delamination cracking of intercalation layers in a P2 Na 0.7 -Ni 0.3 Mn 0.6 Co 0.1 O 2 (Na-NMC) cathode material. Kinks form in the delaminated layers due to severe local bending, and each kink consists of a vertical array of dislocations, resulting from an easy slip between transition metal oxide layers. In situ mechanical compression experiments directly reveal the kink formation due to strong mechanical anisotropy parallel and perpendicular to the intercalation layers in single-crystal Na-NMC. In situ electrochemical experiments indicate that kinks form during the desodiation process. Our results unveil a new mechanism of electrochemically induced mechanical degradation stemming from weak interlayer bonding in layered cathode materials. In conclusion, this work has broad implications for the mitigation of degradation associated with irreversible interlayer slip in layered cathode materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Development of Dry Cask Risk Tools

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has repeatedly expressed a desire to increase the use of risk in its decision-making. The Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Policy Statement published in 1995 formalized the Commission’s commitment to risk-informed regulation through the expanded use of PRA. While a great deal of work has been done to incorporate risk insights into the regulatory framework for at-power nuclear reactors. Far less progress has been made to risk inform the dry-casks and nuclear waste transportation areas of the nuclear fuel cycle. INL was tasked with incorporating the information from the two completed dry cask PRAs as well as any additional available information into a tool that helps the NRC use those insights to identify levels of risk at various stages in the nuclear waste cycle. The first task was to address the License Amendment Request (LAR) Process for Dry Cask storage, the second task is for the incorporate transportation into the tool, and the third and final task will be incorporate any additional regulatory applications for dry cask storage. This report covers the first task of the tool and will eventually incorporate the remaining two tasks may be completed in the future and built off the model described here. Task 1 specifically asked to incorporate the risk insights into the process for determining and prioritizing review of license amendment changes related to storage applications by outlining a resource allocation strategy and defining recommendations of for the depth and breadth of the LAR review. It was requested that the tool be similar in design to the SDP notebooks/worksheets and contain quantitative, qualitative, or semi-quantitative approaches to assessing the risk of the change. The final tool that was selected by INL to be developed was a flowchart and associated rationale document that allows the reviewer to quickly assess potential LAR changes and their associated risks as well as the rationale behind the risk categorization. This risk categorization will lead to specific actionable recommendations to expect from a change of that specific category. This allows for a more consistent review process as well as improving the overall efficiency of the review itself.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Electrical Safety Practices Developed for Automotive Lithium Ion Battery Dismantlement

ORNL is developing electrical safety practices for handling and disassembling automotive lithium ion batteries in a research environment. Online literature searches did not reveal any standard electrical safety practices for disassembling lithium ion battery stacks from automobiles. Until recently, there has been insufficient motivation to recycle or refurbish spent automotive lithium ion batteries due to limited volumes entering the secondary market. However, a growing volume of spent lithium ion batteries are beginning to collect in automobile salvage yards, recycling facilities, landfills, and other places due to a shortage of economically and environmentally viable end-of-life options. ORNL studied automotive battery pack, module, and cell dismantlement to understand the risks, hazards, and controls necessary to perform dismantlement safely and economically. Packs, modules, and cells were manually taken apart, while wearing appropriate personal protective equipment, with insulated hand tools. These dismantlement studies point out the hazards and risks associated with dismantling automotive lithium ion batteries and describe practices for controlling such hazards and risks while demonstrating the controls through a case study of a first-generation Chevrolet Volt battery pack.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Needs and Opportunities for Testing of Hydropower Technology Innovations

Despite hydropower’s status as a well-established technology, changes in the global energy sector have prompted a variety of necessary hydropower technological innovations. Examples include efficient lowhead turbines, more flexible and dispatchable hydropower and pumped storage systems to complement variable and intermittent renewable resources, and technologies providing higher environmental performance. However, while innovative technologies are currently being proposed to meet these development challenges, small hydropower facility owners do not have sufficient risk-bearing capacity to adopt new, unvalidated technologies. This discourages manufacturers from bringing nascent technologies to market and stalls the technological growth of the sector. To reduce the risks associated with new technologies and promote further innovation, systemic (and sometimes unconventional) validation activities and new testing capabilities for hydropower are highly desired. These testing capabilities must demonstrate the safety, environmental acceptability, reliability, and performance of innovative technologies to quantify their value compared with existing technologies. Establishing these capabilities through dedicated testing facilities will be key to promoting hydropower growth in the United States. Following direction from the House Energy and Water Development Committee, the US Department of Energy’s Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) has been tasked with understanding the state of hydropower testing in the United States. This scoping report discusses the needs and opportunities of hydropower testing in the United States, with a specific focus on small hydropower. Future developments will likely mostly target low-head sites with less than 30 ft (9.1 m) from new stream-reach developments, non-powered dam retrofits, and rehabilitation/upgrade of existing plants.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Sister Rod Destructive Examinations (FY23) Appendix F3: Uncertainty and Conservative Bias in the Cyclic Integrated Reversible-Bending Fatigue Test

The development and application of the Cyclic Integrated Reversible-Bending Fatigue Tester (CIRFT) has been documented over the past 10 years. The CIRFT system was developed in collaboration with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to address the concern that high-burnup fuel rod fatigue performance was degraded compared to cladding-only behavior. Fatigue data measured by CIRFT on high-burnup fuel rods were then used by the NRC to develop a fatigue response curve for pressurized water reactor fuel rods with Zircaloy-4 cladding in NUREG-2224. Subsequently, CIRFT has been used in the sister rod project to test whether reoriented hydrides associated with vacuum drying influenced the fatigue lifetime, to extend the fatigue testing database to include fuel rods with ZIRLO cladding, and to add to the experience on both Zircaloy-4 and M5 cladding. These data will be used as a reference for subsequent characterization of fuel rods removed from the high-burnup demonstration cask to better understand the effects of long-term dry storage, which can be thought of as a multiyear elevated temperature anneal. The objective of fatigue testing is to provide data that can be used to develop a best-estimate fatigue curve and a conservative fatigue design curve that accounts for uncertainty and can be compared with actual transportation conditions. The process for defining a design fatigue curve for commercial used fuel rods was developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) in FY22. One issue noted in the fatigue evaluation was that the calculated combined uncertainty in the strain amplitude values determined from the measured data was large. It was proposed then to directly measure the uncertainty in the strain amplitude to either validate the calculated combined uncertainty or update the uncertainty based on the measurement data. Thus, the purpose of this appendix is to document the measured uncertainty in the strain amplitude data. In the process, it was determined that there has been a conservative bias in the calculated strain amplitude that is small enough to be within the measurement uncertainty. This observation is discussed herein, and a case is made to continue to include the conservative bias in the data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Molecular Beam Epitaxy (MBE) Growth of Model Cathodes to Study Interfacial Ion Diffusion

Lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) have been the focus of research for decades owing to their superior energy storage potential and wide range of applications. However, long-term stability issues still persist in LIB cathodes as the result of the formation of a solid electrolyte interface (SEI), structural transformations, or the loss of active cathode materials. In nanoscale cathodes, it is often impossible to isolate, let alone mitigate the causes of the observed capacity loss. Herein, a novel approach is presented to synthesizing LIB cathode model systems using thin-film molecular beam epitaxy (MBE). Specifically, 100 nm thick LiMn 2 O 4 (LMO) thin-film cathodes are grown on SrRuO 3 /SrTiO 3 (100) single-crystal substrates and characterized in their pristine and cycled states. The pristine thin films exhibit the electro-chemical cycling behavior and structural evolution previously seen in bulk LMO cathodes. The formation of surface-layer rocksalt MnO and spinel Mn 3 O 4 along with the mass-loss associated with the corrosion of active Mn ions is also reported. It is, therefore, demonstrated that these MBE-grown model systems can be used for detailed studies of their surface structures and the electrode/electrolyte interfacial evolution in LIB cathodes, leading to the development of materials for rechargeable batteries with higher capacity and better stability.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Intensive and extensive margins of the peak load: Measuring adaptation with mixed frequency panel data

In this work we investigate the response of daily electricity peak load to daily maximum temperatures across states in Europe and India. We propose a method that decomposes short- from medium/long-run effects, retains the high frequency nature of the load-weather covariation and treats economic growth as a modulating factor. By simultaneously exploiting variation in unexpected daily weather anomalies and decade-long climatic changes in each location we decompose transitory - intensive margin - adjustments from permanent - extensive margin - adjustments. We find that the shocks over the long-run differ substantially from the short-run dynamics. Furthermore, we find evidence that per capita income modulates the adjustments over the short- and long-run. We project that in response to climate change around 2050 the peak load may increase by up to 20%-30% in Southern Europe and in several states in India, depending on the degree of warming and the evolution of socio-economic conditions. Even with a limited scope to two world regions, we identify that the structure of the economy and differences in future income growth matter in shaping the adaptation to climate change. Our decomposition allows to identify how future weather anomalies can further amplify the relative increase associated to the shift in the climate norm. Assuming that the interannual variability of maximum temperatures follows the distribution observed in the past, we find a doubling of the impacts of climate change during the summer in Europe. Uncertainty around the distribution of future weather anomalies may lead to further unexpected peak load amplifications. Our results have important policy implications for power systems’ generation capacity, transmission and storage, as we show that the challenges to accommodate the peak load in days with extreme temperatures may substantially increase already around mid-century.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗