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At least 1,423 records · Page 79

An adjoint sensitivity study of blocking in a two-layer isentropic model

This paper presents a new methodology for adjoint sensitivity analysis, previously developed in general terms by Cacuci, into a form directly applicable 10 meteorological problems. This technique is illustrated by examining the sensitivity of a blocking index in a two-layer isentropic model. The index represents a response function for the sensitivity analysis that unlike previous meteorological applications, is an operator and not a functional, and thus extends the scope of adjoint sensitivity to general operator-type responses depending on time and/or space. The sensitivity of the blocking index to perturbations introduced into the model atmosphere, as well as to model parameters, is discussed. The methodology of generalized adjoint sensitivity analysis described in this paper constitutes a prototype for further applications in the atmospheric and/or oceanic sciences.

Zou, X.↗

LANDSAT-D investigations in snow hydrology

Work undertaken during the contract and its results are described. Many of the results from this investigation are available in journal or conference proceedings literature - published, accepted for publication, or submitted for publication. For these the reference and the abstract are given. Those results that have not yet been submitted separately for publication are described in detail. Accomplishments during the contract period are summarized as follows: (1) analysis of the snow reflectance characteristics of the LANDSAT Thematic Mapper, including spectral suitability, dynamic range, and spectral resolution; (2) development of a variety of atmospheric models for use with LANDSAT Thematic Mapper data. These include a simple but fast two-stream approximation for inhomogeneous atmospheres over irregular surfaces, and a doubling model for calculation of the angular distribution of spectral radiance at any level in an plane-parallel atmosphere; (3) incorporation of digital elevation data into the atmospheric models and into the analysis of the satellite data; and (4) textural analysis of the spatial distribution of snow cover.

Dozier, J.↗

Clouds on the hot Jupiter HD189733b: Constraints from the reflection spectrum

The hot Jupiter HD 189733b is probably the best studied of the known extrasolar planets, with published transit and eclipse spectra covering the near UV to mid-IR range. Recent work on the transmission spectrum has shown clear evidence for the presence of clouds in its atmosphere, which significantly increases the model atmosphere parameter space that must be explored in order to fully characterize this planet. In this work, we apply the NEMESIS atmospheric retrieval code to the recently published HST/STIS reflection spectrum, and also to the dayside thermal emission spectrum in light of new Spitzer/IRAC measurements, as well as our own re-analysis of the HST/NICMOS data. We first use the STIS data to place some constraints on the nature of clouds on HD 189733b and explore solution degeneracy between different cloud properties and the abundance of Na in the atmosphere; as already noted in previous work, absorption due to Na plays a significant role in determining the shape of the reflection spectrum. We then perform a new retrieval of the temperature profile and abundances of H{sub 2}O, CO{sub 2}, CO, and CH{sub 4} from the dayside thermal emission spectrum. Finally, we investigate the effect of including cloud in the model on this retrieval process. We find that the current quality of data does not warrant the extra complexity introduced by including cloud in the model; however, future data are likely to be of sufficient resolution and signal-to-noise that a more complete model, including scattering particles, will be required.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the estimation of boundary layer heights: a machine learning approach

Abstract. The planetary boundary layer height (zi) is a key parameter used in atmospheric models for estimating the exchange of heat, momentum, and moisture between the surface and the free troposphere. Near-surface atmospheric and subsurface properties (such as soil temperature, relative humidity, etc.) are known to have an impact on zi. Nevertheless, precise relationships between these surface properties and zi are less well known and not easily discernible from the multi-year dataset. Machine learning approaches, such as random forest (RF), which use a multi-regression framework, help to decipher some of the physical processes linking surface-based characteristics to zi. In this study, a 4-year dataset from 2016 to 2019 at the Southern Great Plains site is used to develop and test a machine learning framework for estimating zi. Parameters derived from Doppler lidars are used in combination with over 20 different surface meteorological measurements as inputs to a RF model. The model is trained using radiosonde-derived zi values spanning the period from 2016 through 2018 and then evaluated using data from 2019. Results from 2019 showed significantly better agreement with the radiosonde compared to estimates derived from a thresholding technique using Doppler lidars only. Noteworthy improvements in daytime zi estimates were observed using the RF model, with a 50 % improvement in mean absolute error and an R2 of greater than 85 % compared to the Tucker method zi. We also explore the effect of zi uncertainty on convective velocity scaling and present preliminary comparisons between the RF model and zi estimates derived from atmospheric models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Adaptive Grid Redistribution for a 1D Model of Turbulence and Clouds

In global atmospheric models, resolving stratocumulus (Sc) in the vertical is computationally expensive. However, Sc appear only under special meteorological conditions. Therefore, there is motivation to refine the vertical grid levels adaptively. In order to facilitate the possibility of parallelization on graphical processing units, our grid adaptation method prescribes the number of vertical levels a priori. Then grid levels are relocated toward altitude ranges in need of refinement. Because the method relocates existing grid levels, rather than adding extra levels, there is a risk of creating regions with overly coarse grid spacing, that is, voids in the grid mesh. To prevent such voids from forming, a simple method is developed to impose a maximum grid spacing. To decide where to place enhanced resolution, the authors develop an empirical mesh refinement criterion. It refines grid spacing near the ground, near strong temperature gradients, and within clouds. Our grid adaptation method is implemented in a single-column model and evaluated on four test cases: decaying stratocumulus, developing shallow cumulus, a quasi-stationary stratocumulus deck, and the diurnal cycle of a dry boundary layer. In the stratocumulus cases, mesh refinement leads to improvements in both the time evolution of fields and their time averages. The other two cases show smaller differences.

Carstensen, Steffen [Univ. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee↗

Satellite lifetime prediction

Satellite lifetime predictions are critically dependent on the ability to forecast future solar and geomagnetic activity. These quantities are inputs to the atmospheric model with which values of atmospheric density are computed along a projected orbital path. Density values are combined with the predicted ballistic coefficient timeline to compute drag and predict decay histories. The major uncertainty in making predictions that pertain to the time periods that are years in the future is in the solar and geomagnetic activity projections, although the ballistic coefficient is also frequently in doubt. The study concludes that while present density models are adequate for planning, the inputs to them, particularly solar/geomagnetic activity indices, are unreliable.

Wittenstein, Gerald↗

Mars-GRAM Applications for Mars Science Laboratory Mission Site Selection Processes

An overview is presented of the Mars-Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Mars-GRAM 2005) and its new features. One important new feature is the "auxiliary profile" option, whereby a simple input file is used to replace mean atmospheric values from Mars-GRAM's conventional (General Circulation Model) climatology. An auxiliary profile can be generated from any source of data or alternate model output. Results are presented using auxiliary profiles produced from mesoscale model output (Southwest Research Institute's Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS) model and Oregon State University's Mars mesoscale model (MMM5) model) for three candidate Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) landing sites (Terby Crater, Melas Chasma, and Gale Crater). A global Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) database has also been generated for purposes of making 'Mars-GRAM auxiliary profiles. This data base contains averages and standard deviations of temperature, density, and thermal wind components, averaged over 5-by-5 degree latitude bins and 15 degree L(sub S) bins, for each of three Mars years of TES nadir data. Comparisons show reasonably good consistency between Mars-GRAM with low dust optical depth and both TES observed and mesoscale model simulated density at the three study sites. Mean winds differ by a more significant degree. Comparisons of mesoscale and TES standard deviations' with conventional Mars-GRAM values, show that Mars-GRAM density perturbations are somewhat conservative (larger than observed variability), while mesoscale-modeled wind variations are larger than Mars-GRAM model estimates. Input parameters rpscale (for density perturbations) and rwscale (for wind perturbations) can be used to "recalibrate" Mars-GRAM perturbation magnitudes to better replicate observed or mesoscale model variability.

Justh, Hilary↗

Modeling of Cometary Atmospheres

The NASA supported project 'Modeling of Cometary Atmospheres' has been quite successful in broadening our understanding of the cometary environment. We list peer reviewed publications and conference presentation that have been made as a result of studies performed under this project. Following the list we present details of a selection of the results.

Gombosi, Tamas↗

Hubble space telescope calspec flux standards: Sirius (and Vega)

The Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph (STIS) has measured the flux for Sirius from 0.17 to 1.01 μm on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) White Dwarf scale. Because of the cool debris disk around Vega, Sirius is commonly recommended as the primary IR flux standard. The measured STIS flux agrees well with predictions of a special Kurucz model atmosphere, adding confidence to the modeled IR flux predictions. The IR flux agrees to 2%-3% with respect to the standard template of Cohen and to 2% with the Midcourse Space Experiment absolute flux measurements in the mid-IR. A weighted average of the independent visible and mid-IR absolute flux measures implies that the monochromatic flux at 5557.5 Å (5556 Å in air) for Sirius and Vega, respectively, is 1.35 × 10{sup –8} and 3.44 × 10{sup –9} erg cm{sup –2} s{sup –1} Å{sup –1} with formal uncertainties of 0.5%. Contrary to previously published conclusions, the Hipparcos photometry offers no support for the variability of Vega. Pulse pileup severely affects the Hp photometry for the brightest stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Study of the atmospheric general circulation as an initial value problem with the NCAR Community Climate Model

The essential elements of the transition of a model atmosphere to the equilibrium state from two extreme rest states, a cold (240 K) state and a warm (310 K) state, were examined using the NCAR Community Climate Model. It is shown that the same equilibrium state was reached in the two spinup conditions, which was also the same that was reported for this model by Williamson and Williamson (1984), who started from still a different initial condition. The spinup from the cold initial condition was faster than that from the warm condition, although the final stages of the approach to equilibrium were very simular in both cases. It was also found that the spinup of the barotropic flow lagged behind that of the baroclinic flow and the thermal field, and the model tropics spinup was faster than that of the mid-latitudes.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗

Changing Characteristics of Tropical Extreme Precipitation-Cloud Regimes in Warmer Climates

In this paper, we have investigated the changing characteristics of climatic scale (monthly) tropical extreme precipitation in warming climates using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Results are from Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-type simulations driven by a) control experiment with present-day sea surface temperature (SST) and CO 2 concentration, b) P4K, same as in a) but with uniform increase by 4K in SST globally, and c) same as in a), but with imposed SST and CO 2 concentration from outputs of coupled E3SM forced by 4xCO 2 concentration. We find that as the surface warms under P4K and 4xCO 2 , both convective and stratiform rain increase. Importantly, there is increasing fractional contribution of stratiform rain as a function of precipitation intensity, with the most extreme but rare events occurring preferentially over land more than ocean, more so under 4xCO 2 than P4K. Extreme precipitation is facilitated by increased precipitation efficiency, reflecting accelerated rates of recycling of precipitation-cloud water (both liquid and ice phases) in regions with colder anvil cloud tops. Changes in vertical profiles of clouds, condensation heating and vertical motions indicate increasing precipitation-cloud-circulation organization from control, P4K to 4xCO 2 . Results suggest that large-scale ocean warming, i.e., P4K, is the primary cause contributing to organization structure resembling the well-known Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) for increased extreme precipitation on shorter (hourly to daily) time scales. Additional 4xCO 2 atmospheric radiative heating, and dynamically consistent anomalous SST further amplifies the MCS organization under P4K. Analyses of the surface moist static energy distribution show that increase in surface moisture (temperature) under P4K and 4xCO 2 is the key driver leading to enhanced convective instability over tropical ocean (land). However, the fast and large increase in land surface temperature and lack of available local moisture result in strong reduction in land surface relative humidity, reflecting severe drying and enhanced convective inhibition (CIN). It is argued that very extreme and rare “record-breaking” precipitation events found over land under P4K, more so under 4xCO 2 , are likely due to the delayed onset of deep convection, i.e., the longer the suppression of deep convection by CIN, the more severe the extreme precipitation when eventually occur, due to the release of large amount of stored surplus convective available potential energy in the lower troposphere during prolonged CIN.

climate-scale extreme tropical precipitation↗

Final Technical Report

We have constructed and analyzed a series of idealized models of tropical convection interacting with large-scale circulations, with 25-50km resolution and with 1-2km cloud resolving resolution to set the stage for rigorous tests of convection closure schemes in high resolution global climate models. Much of the focus has been on the climatology of tropical cyclogenesis in rotating systems and the related problem of the spontaneous aggregation of convection in non-rotating systems. The PI (Held) will be delivering the honorary Bjerknes lecture at the Fall 2016 AGU meeting in December on this work. We have also provided new analyses of long-standing issues related to the interaction between convection and the large-scale circulation: Kelvin waves in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, water vapor transport into the stratosphere, and upper tropospheric temperature trends. The results of these analyses help to improve our understanding of processes, and provide tests for future high resolution global modeling. Our final goal of testing new convections schemes in next-generation global atmospheric models at GFDL has been left for future work due to the complexity of the idealized model results meant as tests for these models uncovered in this work and to computational resource limitations. 11 papers have been published with support from this grant, 2 are in review, and another major summary paper is in preparation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fast domain-aware neural network emulation of a planetary boundary layer parameterization in a numerical weather forecast model

Abstract. Parameterizations for physical processes in weather and climate models are computationally expensive. We use model output from the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) climate model to train deep neural networks (DNNs) and evaluate whether trained DNNs can provide an accurate alternative to the physics-based parameterizations. Specifically, we develop an emulator using DNNs for a planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization in the WRF model. PBL parameterizations are used in atmospheric models to represent the diurnal variation in the formation and collapse of the atmospheric boundary layer – the lowest part of the atmosphere. The dynamics and turbulence, as well as velocity, temperature, and humidity profiles within the boundary layer are all critical for determining many of the physical processes in the atmosphere. PBL parameterizations are used to represent these processes that are usually unresolved in a typical climate model that operates at horizontal spatial scales in the tens of kilometers. We demonstrate that a domain-aware DNN, which takes account of underlying domain structure (e.g., nonlocal mixing), can successfully simulate the vertical profiles within the boundary layer of velocities, temperature, and water vapor over the entire diurnal cycle. Results also show that a single trained DNN from one location can produce predictions of wind speed, temperature, and water vapor profiles over nearby locations with similar terrain conditions with correlations higher than 0.9 when compared with the WRF simulations used as the training dataset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Radiative Forcing of Nitrate Aerosols From 1975 to 2010 as Simulated by MOSAIC Module in CESM2-MAM4

In this work, we incorporate the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) module in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) Community Atmosphere Model Version 6 with interactive chemistry (CAM6-chem), and couple it with the four mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). The MOSAIC module is used to simulate the thermodynamics of the gas-aerosol mass exchange, with a special focus on simulating nitrate aerosol. By comparing against ground and satellite observations, we found that the MOSAIC/MAM4 scheme performs reasonably well in simulating spatiotemporal distributions of aerosols, including nitrate aerosol. We conducted a series of model experiments with and without nitrate aerosols, and examined the radiative effect (RE) associated with nitrate aerosols in 1975, 2000, and 2010, and accessed the radiative forcing (RF) of nitrate aerosols between the present day and pre-industrial periods. Comparing with the nitrate aerosol RE, we predicted relatively small RF of anthropogenic nitrate aerosol from aerosol-radiation interactions (RF ari : -0.014 W m -2 ) and large RF from aerosol-cloud interactions (RF aci : -0.219 W m -2 ). Regional signatures of nitrate RE/RF are noticeable and important: for instance, very small changes in RE ari in Europe and USA, but 2.8–3 times increases in RE ari in India and China from 1975 to 2010, while RE aci /RF aci in China is a warming effect due to the competing effect between sulfate and nitrate aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

INFRARED TRANSMISSION SPECTROSCOPY OF THE EXOPLANETS HD 209458b AND XO-1b USING THE WIDE FIELD CAMERA-3 ON THE HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE

Exoplanetary transmission spectroscopy in the near-infrared using the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) NICMOS is currently ambiguous because different observational groups claim different results from the same data, depending on their analysis methodologies. Spatial scanning with HST/WFC3 provides an opportunity to resolve this ambiguity. We here report WFC3 spectroscopy of the giant planets HD 209458b and XO-1b in transit, using spatial scanning mode for maximum photon-collecting efficiency. We introduce an analysis technique that derives the exoplanetary transmission spectrum without the necessity of explicitly decorrelating instrumental effects, and achieves nearly photon-limited precision even at the high flux levels collected in spatial scan mode. Our errors are within 6% (XO-1) and 26% (HD 209458b) of the photon-limit at a resolving power of {lambda}/{delta}{lambda} {approx} 70, and are better than 0.01% per spectral channel. Both planets exhibit water absorption of approximately 200 ppm at the water peak near 1.38 {mu}m. Our result for XO-1b contradicts the much larger absorption derived from NICMOS spectroscopy. The weak water absorption we measure for HD 209458b is reminiscent of the weakness of sodium absorption in the first transmission spectroscopy of an exoplanet atmosphere by Charbonneau et al. Model atmospheres having uniformly distributed extra opacity of 0.012 cm{sup 2} g{sup -1} account approximately for both our water measurement and the sodium absorption. Our results for HD 209458b support the picture advocated by Pont et al. in which weak molecular absorptions are superposed on a transmission spectrum that is dominated by continuous opacity due to haze and/or dust. However, the extra opacity needed for HD 209458b is grayer than for HD 189733b, with a weaker Rayleigh component.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

PREDICTING Lyα AND Mg II FLUXES FROM K AND M DWARFS USING GALAXY EVOLUTION EXPLORER ULTRAVIOLET PHOTOMETRY

A star's ultraviolet (UV) emission can greatly affect the atmospheric chemistry and physical properties of closely orbiting planets with the potential for severe mass loss. In particular, the Lyα emission line at 1216 Å, which dominates the far-ultraviolet (FUV) spectrum, is a major source of photodissociation of important atmospheric molecules such as water and methane. The intrinsic flux of Lyα, however, cannot be directly measured due to the absorption of neutral hydrogen in the interstellar medium and contamination by geocoronal emission. To date, reconstruction of the intrinsic Lyα line based on Hubble Space Telescope spectra has been accomplished for 46 FGKM nearby stars, 28 of which have also been observed by the Galaxy Evolution Explorer (GALEX). Our investigation provides a correlation between published intrinsic Lyα and GALEX far- and near-ultraviolet (NUV) chromospheric fluxes for K and M stars. The negative correlations between the ratio of the Lyα to the GALEX fluxes reveal how the relative strength of Lyα compared to the broadband fluxes weakens as the FUV and NUV excess flux increase. We also correlate GALEX fluxes with the strong NUV Mg II h+k spectral emission lines formed at lower chromospheric temperatures than Lyα. The reported correlations provide estimates of intrinsic Lyα and Mg II fluxes for the thousands of K and M stars in the archived GALEX all-sky surveys. These will constrain new stellar upper atmosphere models for cool stars and provide realistic inputs to models describing exoplanetary photochemistry and atmospheric evolution in the absence of UV spectroscopy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

An Investigation of LES Wall Modeling for Rayleigh–Bénard Convection via Interpretable and Physics-Aware Feedforward Neural Networks with DNS

Abstract The traditional approach of using the Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to model near-surface processes in large-eddy simulations (LESs) can lead to significant errors in natural convection. In this study, we propose an alternative approach based on feedforward neural networks (FNNs) trained on output from direct numerical simulation (DNS). To evaluate the performance, we conduct both a priori and a posteriori tests. In the a priori (offline) tests, we compare the statistics of the surface shear stress and heat flux, computed from filtered DNS input variables, to the stress and flux obtained from the filtered DNS. Additionally, we investigate the importance of various input features using the Shapley additive explanations value and the conditional average of the filter grid cells. In the a posteriori (online) tests, we implement the trained models in the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) LES and compare the LES-generated surface shear stress and heat flux with those in the DNS. Our findings reveal that vertical velocity, a traditionally overlooked flow quantity, is one of the most important input features for determining the wall fluxes. Increasing the number of input features improves the a priori test results but does not always improve the model performance in the a posteriori tests because of the differences in input variables between the LES and DNS. Last, we show that physics-aware FNN models trained with logarithmic and scaled parameters can well extrapolate to more intense convection scenarios than in the training dataset, whereas those trained with primitive flow quantities cannot. Significance Statement The traditional near-surface turbulence model, based on a shear-dominated boundary layer flow, does not represent near-surface turbulence in natural convection. Using a feedforward neural network (FNN), we can construct a more accurate model that better represents the near-surface turbulence in various flows and reveals previously overlooked controlling factors and process interactions. Our study shows that the FNN-generated models outperform the traditional model and highlight the importance of the near-surface vertical velocity. Furthermore, the physics-aware FNN models exhibit the potential to extrapolate to convective flows of various intensities beyond the range of the training dataset, suggesting their broader applicability for more accurate modeling of near-surface turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗