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DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Targeting Terms for Engineers and Scientists Revised Edition

This is a revised version of LA-UR-17-20752, Nuclear Targeting Terms for Engineers and Scientists, March 1, 2017. The discussion of compounding for damage and compounding for reliability was reworded for clarity. The Department of Defense has a methodology for targeting nuclear weapons, and a jargon that is used to communicate between the analysts, planners, aircrews, and missile crews. The typical engineer or scientist in the Department of Energy may not have been exposed to the nuclear weapons targeting terms and methods. This report provides an introduction to the terms and methodologies used for nuclear targeting. Its purpose is to prepare engineers and scientists to participate in wargames, exercises, and discussions with the Department of Defense. Terms such as Circular Error Probable, probability of hit and damage, damage expectancy, and the physical vulnerability system are discussed. Methods for compounding damage from multiple weapons applied to one target are presented.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2021

FLC Award: QED: Quantum Ensured Defense of the Smart Electric Grid

A reliable electric power supply is crucial for modern day life as well as national security, economic productivity, and life-and-death essentials. During the COVID pandemic, internet and cell communications became a “must-have” for government and business operations, education, and communicating COVID testing for vaccine information. Loss of electric power quickly leads to human health and national security emergencies. When a major winter storm hit Texas in mid-February 2021, the system was overwhelmed and over 4M people lost power. Although this crisis arose from an unprecedented weather event - not a cyberattack - it serves as a vivid illustration of the impact power disruption can have on our American way of life. The recent cyberattack on the Colonial Oil Pipeline also provides a stark reminder that infrastructure supporting our daily lives has vulnerabilities.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Solar Plus: Strategies for Oregon and Washington

The Solar Plus initiative convened leaders from the State Energy Offices in Oregon and Washington, plus representatives from utilities, regulators, the solar industry and community-based organizations to tap into the region’s unique opportunities to develop distributed solar with an emphasis on equity and inclusion of vulnerable communities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Update on Nuclear Energy Projects and Plans in Ukraine (Meeting Report)

Following the 1986 disastrous accident at Chernobyl, gaining independence following the fall of the former Soviet Union, two revolutions, and on-going Russian intervention, Ukrainea is seeking to expand its use of commercial nuclear energy and to further reduce its dependence on Russia for energy. Nuclear energy in Ukraine has made a significant contribution toward achieving sustainable development and social goals. Ukraine is very vulnerable to the effects of climate change and nuclear is a cornerstone of the country’s effort to combat the effects. With broad support from the U.S. government, Ukraine is cooperating with the U.S. on fresh nuclear fuel supply, civilian nuclear security, outage optimization, spent fuel storage, and future nuclear technology. And is looking to tap U.S. expertise on plant management, and electric grid operations and expansion. NEIc hosted this virtual event to provide an update on nuclear energy projects and plans in Ukraine. Featured speakers included Yaroslav Demchenkov, Deputy Minister of Energy, Taras Kachka, Deputy Minister – Trade Representative, Petro Kotin, CEO, Energoatom,d and Ann K. Ganzer, Senior Bureau Official, Bureau of International Security and Nonproliferation, U.S. Dept. of State. Maria Korsnick, NEI CEO, moderated the discussion. About forty individuals attended representing the Ukraine and U.S. governments, and U.S. suppliers.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Novel Geometric Operations for Linear Programming

This report summarizes the work performed under the project "Linear Programming in Strongly Polynomial Time." Linear programming (LP) is a classic combinatorial optimization problem heavily used directly and as an enabling subroutine in integer programming (IP). Specifically IP is the same as LP except that some solution variables must take integer values (e.g. to represent yes/no decisions). Together LP and IP have many applications in resource allocation including general logistics, and infrastructure design and vulnerability analysis. The project was motivated by the PI's recent success developing methods to efficiently sample Voronoi vertices (essentially finding nearest neighbors in high-dimensional point sets) in arbitrary dimension. His method seems applicable to exploring the high-dimensional convex feasible space of an LP problem. Although the project did not provably find a strongly-polynomial algorithm, it explored multiple algorithm classes. The new medial simplex algorithms may still lead to solvers with improved provable complexity. We describe medial simplex algorithms and some relevant structural/complexity results. We also designed a novel parallel LP algorithm based on our geometric insights and implemented it in the Spoke-LP code. A major part of the computational step is many independent vector dot products. Our parallel algorithm distributes the problem constraints across processors. Current commercial and high-quality free LP solvers require all problem details to fit onto a single processor or multicore. Our new algorithm might enable the solution of problems too large for any current LP solvers. We describe our new algorithm, give preliminary proof-of-concept experiments, and describe a new generator for arbitrarily large LP instances.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrated Multiphysics Modeling of Environmentally Assisted Brittle Fracture

Brittle materials, such as cement, compose major portions of built infrastructure and are vulnerable to degradation and fracture from chemo-mechanical effects. Currently, methods of modeling infrastructure do not account for the presence of a reactive environment, such as water, on the acceleration of failure. Here, we have developed methodologies and models of concrete and cement fracture that account for varying material properties, such as strength, shrinkage, and fracture toughness due to degradation or hydration. The models have been incorporated into peridynamics, non-local continuum mechanics methodology, that can model intersecting and branching brittle fracture that occurs in multicomponent brittle materials, such as concrete. Through development of new peridynamic capabilities, decalcification of cement and differential shrinkage in clay-cement composites have been evaluated, along with exemplar problems in nuclear waste cannisters and wellbores. We have developed methods to simulate multiphase phenomena in cement and cement-composite materials for energy and infrastructure applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Oregon Roadway CSZ Liquefaction and Landslide Impact Screening Analysis

The roadway transportation routes and the surrounding environments in Oregon will be subject to ground acceleration and potential associated deformation due to the propagation of waves of energy during a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake. Linear features such as highways may be subject to partial or complete disruption of their function resulting from ground deformations at and along the roadway. A potential source of these disruptions associated with a CSZ event are landslides and liquefaction in the soils along and beneath the highways and local roadways. The construction of the Oregon roadway system and urban development have occurred largely along the banks of the rivers—those along the Pacific coast, and along the valleys throughout the Oregon Coast Range and Cascade Mountains. These locations also represent areas where landslides and liquefaction have occurred historically, or may potentially occur in the future, presenting a significant vulnerability for the roadway system and dependent post-CSZ earthquake emergency response and recovery effort. Many of the Oregon areas with landslide- and liquefaction-prone soils have the potential to impact roadway transportation routes after a major earthquake causing delays in establishing routes to transport emergency response personnel and resources to impacted areas and communities. This report presents methods used to project the impacts that CSZ earthquake-induced landslides and liquefaction may have on roadways across Oregon. First, this report presents an approach for estimating the risk of landslides to Oregon roadways, and determining approximate reopening times. Second, this report presents a similar approach for estimating the risk of liquefaction-induced ground displacements to roadway pavements, also resulting in approximate reopening times for roadway segments. The outcomes of these two ground failure analyses serve as inputs to a broader analysis of CSZ earthquake impacts to Oregon’s surface transportation system and its ability to support post-disaster response and recovery activities, as part of the Oregon Transportation Systems Regional Resiliency Assessment Program project (CISA 2021).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Oregon Rivers Characterization Tool

DHS’s Regional Resiliency Assessment Program (RRAP) undertook the Oregon State Transportation Systems RRAP project between 2018-2021 to assess the seismic vulnerabilities of the state’s transportation system to a Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) earthquake (CISA 2021). The project primarily focused on the effects of a CSZ earthquake on the mobility of emergency response efforts into the region. In the event that bridges located at crucial river crossings fail during a CSZ earthquake, rivers will become natural barriers affecting the ability to support response and recovery efforts. The characteristics of rivers (e.g., width, depth, and flow) are critical data to inform planning for the recovery of transportation systems across river barriers and determine reopening times following a CSZ earthquake. As part of the transportation system assessment, an Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) project team developed a River Characterization Tool (RCT) to quantify the physical characteristics of the river system in Oregon, which can be used to inform a system-level analysis of transportation recovery and reopening times. This report mainly discusses approaches, methods, development, and applications of the RCT. The use of the river data generated from this tool for a system-level analysis of transportation recovery is discussed in the Oregon Transportation Systems RRAP Resiliency Assessment report (CISA 2021). The primary goal of the RCT is to generate statewide dataset of widths, depths, and flows for all rivers across Oregon to assess the effects of river barriers on emergency response and recovery efforts following a CSZ earthquake. The RCT leverages remote sensing data that multispectral sensors collect from satellites, employs a deep learning model to characterize river predictions, and computes river channel geometric dimensions with hydraulic relationships and river predictions. The entire process of river characterization is automated and implemented through the RCT.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Lawrence Graduate Research Scholar, Allegra Mayer, 2021 (Final Report)

Carbon storage in tropical forest soil depends on the balance between large C inputs from high rates of productivity, and high rates of soil C loss due to rapid decomposition rates. Disturbances to tropical forests, including severe hurricanes, could result in globally significant fluxes of C either to or from forest soils. Severe hurricane events are increasing in frequency in the tropics, yet the vulnerability of soil carbon to a frequent severe hurricane regime is unknown. By constraining a model with samples from before and after three major hurricanes within thirty years, this study examines the cycling of C between soil pools and with depth, under conditions marked by sudden organic matter pulses, rapid shifts in forest structure, and fast decomposition rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Molten Salt Reactor Fundamental Safety Function PIRT

The phenomenon identification and ranking table (PIRT) process was employed to evaluate the current capability to assess the ability of liquid-salt–fueled molten salt reactors to achieve their fundamental safety functions (FSFs). The PIRT process provides a structured mechanism to elicit and document expert opinions on the most important phenomena and the corresponding level of knowledge with regard to achieving the FSFs. The PIRT panel included reactor developers, accident progression evaluation tool developers, US Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratory technical staff, university researchers, and US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff. The information-gathering process concentrated on phenomena related to accidents in which the fuel salt—including any in the cover gas—has been released from the first barrier layer. This information-gathering process included identifying all potential accidents that could result in the release of a substantial amount of radionuclides that could breach or bypass the first barrier. The PIRT did not identify any previously unrecognized systemic vulnerabilities. However, the elicitation process identified several areas with low levels of knowledge and significant potential impact on accident progression. These areas either require additional research to improve the state of knowledge or additional design conservatism to accommodate the remaining unknowns.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Using the CYBER-Champ Model to Determine Cyber Competencies and Role Alignment

Cybersecurity roles, tasks, and skills are seen by many organizations as nonessential, abstract, or complicated. Although standards are in place, such as the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) 800-181 document titled “Workforce Framework for Cybersecurity (NICE Framework)” available since September 2012, companies are still showing security vulnerabilities in their cyber networks (Hatzes, 2020). Barriers towards creating a cyber-ready workforce are not always due to a lack of resources, but often caused by organizational structure. The need for cyber-cognizant job postings, improved communication between Operational Technology (OT) and Information Technology (IT) employees, increases in staffing and funding for cyber teams, and better communication of standards and training can all contribute to increasing an organization’s cyber resilience. Cybersecurity Competency Health and Maturity Progression model (CYBER-CHAMP) is a model aimed at evaluating an organization’s structure and individual employee’s cyber knowledge and helps develop a plan to reach competency. This model was used to engage with organizations to promote proper cyber protocols and policies. The aim of this paper is to answer if it is possible for an organization to build a cyber-ready workforce by providing education and training options for current employees and prepare the future workforce to be ready on day one of employment. Both open source and firsthand interviews with organizations were used to conduct the research contained in this document. Further research may include additional development to the CYBER-CHAMP model and its delivery platform.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cybersecurity for Grid Connected eXtreme Fast Charging (XFC) Station (CyberX) (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This report summarizes the activities conducted under the DOE VTO funded project DE- EE0008451, where ABB Inc. (ABB), in collaboration with Idaho National Laboratory (INL), APS Global (APS), and XOS Trucks (XOS) pursued the development of a cyber-resilient extreme fast charging (XFC) management system. This project entitled Cybersecurity for Grid Connected eXtreme Fast Charging (XFC) Station (CyberX) focuses on a resilient architecture for smart charging EV Supply Equipment (EVSE) device control and Coordinated Anomaly Detection System (CADS) features that can be added at the charging site depot level to increase cybersecurity. The project was split into two budget periods focused first on developing the threat model and resilient control concepts and second on testing, improving, and validating those developed resilient control algorithms and features with a focus on key vulnerabilities identified during the threat assessment portion of the project. During the first budget period of the CyberX project, the ABB led team focused on activities to identify, model, and quantitatively prioritize high-impact attack scenarios with potential cyber-physical effects while also modeling and developing concepts for a resilient control system that could securely address integration of DERs and other resources with EV charging. Development of the security focused XFC management system (XMS) was accomplished first by offline simulation using a developed XFC station or depot with 480V input level and simulating measurement inputs to monitoring and control systems in concept development. A representative distribution grid model was developed supporting an EV charging site model with BESS and 6 general EV charging models. These EV charging models allowed multiple configurations of charging level, multiple connected protection and measurement devices, and simulation function to show general compromise of EV, BESS, and protection features based on parallel threat analysis. During the second budget period, the EV site and supporting systems model was developed in more detail and converted from offline model to real-time to real-time with EV charging hardware in the loop (HIL). The resilient control architecture developed as concept in the first part of the project was further tested and validated for integration of local energy resources and XFC charging station site equipment while maintaining cybersecure operating principles. The proposed resilient architecture for smart charging and cybersecurity features consists of two main concepts developed and tested within the project. The first concept is an XFC management system (XMS) consisting of a hardware gateway, software platform, and Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) or Distribution Management System integration components. The second concept is a Coordinated Anomaly Detection System (CADS) which forms a primarily software-related subsystem of the total CyberX solution focused on monitoring system measurements, estimation of measurement states, and predicting current at the utility point of interaction based on machine learning for anomaly detection.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Paths Forward for Nuclear Energy: Using a Nationwide Post-Stratified Hierarchical Model to Facilitate Matching of New Nuclear Technologies to Receptive Host Communities

This project was a collaboration between the University of Oklahoma (OU) and the University of Michigan (UMich). The overall objective of the project was to address a critical problem facing the siting of nuclear facilities, where there is no mechanism for incorporating public attitudes at a state and local level into decision-making. Utilizing recent advances in data modeling over local spatial scales, the research team created a state and county level map of public attitudes towards nuclear energy. Current estimates for public acceptance of nuclear technologies primarily exists on a national level, and sub-national estimates of public opinion about reactor siting, research facilities, transport routes, or storage and disposal facilities are very scarce. Model results from this project provide a systematic basis for technology developers to evaluate public acceptance across alternative siting options as a critical component for weighing potential benefit-cost tradeoffs for alternative paths to deploy new nuclear facilities. The project utilized data from the largest database of nuclear attitudes in the US, coupled with Census and elections-related data as well as data on social vulnerability and proximity to current nuclear facilities. In addition to modeling public support, the team also developed an interactive map to showcase results, using an online tool called Public and Local Attitudes about Nuclear Energy Technologies (PLANET). The tool allows technology developers and stakeholders to interact with the model results and better understand variation in support for nuclear facility siting on a state and county level. The interactive nature of the tool also allows users to analyze results in a targeted way, by comparing levels of support across different states and/or counties as desired.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Best Practices for Timing Attack Mitigation

GPS signals play essential roles in the electric subsector by providing precision timing used to synchronize and record measurements from a range of equipment. However, previous research has demonstrated that GPS signals can be spoofed or jammed relatively easily in order to interfere with timing-reliant equipment. This document outlines utility best practices for mitigating against timing attacks in the electric subsector based on an assessment of the difficulty and impact of realistic timing attacks and testing of the effectiveness of technologies capable of mitigating them. This analysis builds on research establishing the vulnerability of GPS-reliant timing equipment to jamming and spoofing by elaborating the difficulty, consequences, and mitigations for timing attacks that adversaries might realistically attempt. While timing attacks are relatively low-cost, low-sophistication, and capable of systemic consequences in the electric subsector, they can be effectively mitigated through well-targeted and diverse mitigations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Water Microgrids: A Primer for Facility Managers

A water microgrid is similar in concept to an energy microgrid, which the U.S. Department of Energy defines as “a local energy grid with control capability, which means it can disconnect from the traditional grid and operate autonomously.” Similarly, a water microgrid is a local water system that supplies, treats, and distributes water, with the primary objective to meet mission critical water demands during a disruption of the primary supply. A water microgrid has the capability to operate independently of an existing primary water system and includes a layer of sensing capability that provides the necessary monitoring and controls to operate the water microgrid. A water microgrid may offer a viable solution for a site to address resilience gaps identified through the resilience planning process. For example, a site may not have adequate and redundant water supply to meet mission critical demands with vulnerabilities in the operating systems. A water microgrid provides the ability to island the water system from the primary water supply to satisfy water demand requirements throughout an outage or disruption.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Adapting Secure MultiParty Computation to Support Machine Learning in Radio Frequency Sensor Networks

In this project we developed and validated algorithms for privacy-preserving linear regression using a new variant of Secure Multiparty Computation (MPC) we call "Hybrid MPC" (hMPC). Our variant is intended to support low-power, unreliable networks of sensors with low-communication, fault-tolerant algorithms. In hMPC we do not share training data, even via secret sharing. Thus, agents are responsible for protecting their own local data. Only the machine learning (ML) model is protected with information-theoretic security guarantees against honest-but-curious agents. There are three primary advantages to this approach: (1) after setup, hMPC supports a communication-efficient matrix multiplication primitive, (2) organizations prevented by policy or technology from sharing any of their data can participate as agents in hMPC, and (3) large numbers of low-power agents can participate in hMPC. We have also created an open-source software library named "Cicada" to support hMPC applications with fault-tolerance. The fault-tolerance is important in our applications because the agents are vulnerable to failure or capture. We have demonstrated this capability at Sandia's Autonomy New Mexico laboratory through a simple machine-learning exercise with Raspberry Pi devices capturing and classifying images while flying on four drones.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Speaker-targeted Synthetic Speech Detection

Text-to-speech technologies are evolving quickly towards realistic-sounding human-like voices. As this technology improves, so does the opportunity for malpractice in speaker identification (SID) via spoofing, the process of impersonating a voice biometric via synthesis. More data typically equates to a more realistic voice model, which poses an issue for well-known subjects, such as politicians and celebrities, who have vast amounts of multimedia available online. Detection of synthetic speech has relied on signal processing techniques that focus on the generation of new acoustic features and train deep learning models to detect when an audio file has been manipulated through the characterization of unnatural changes or artifacts. However, these techniques do not use any information from the speaker they are evaluating. This paper proposes to incorporate information from the speaker-of-interest (SoI) into the models to avoid specific spoofing attacks for certain vulnerable people. The wealth of data for well-known people can also be used to train a speaker-specific spoofing detector with a higher level of accuracy than a speaker-independent model. The paper proposes a new xResNet-PLDA system and compares it to three different baseline systems: a state-of-the-art speaker identification system, an xResNet system trained to discriminate between bona fide and fake speech, and a speaker identification system in which the PLDA and calibration models were trained with bona fide and fake speech. We evaluated the systems in two different scenarios — a cross-validation scenario and a hold-out scenario — with three different databases. We show how the proposed system outperforms dramatically the baseline systems in each scenario and for each database. Finally, we show how using a small amount of the SoI’s speech to adapt global calibration parameters improves the performance of the system, especially in unseen conditions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Blockchain for Fault-Tolerant Grid Operations

Distribution system fault/failure has a direct impact on customers. Distribution systems are not designed with the contingency of one or more elements failing as the transmission system, however, distribution systems are more likely to have faults in comparison to transmission and generation systems. Most of the distribution systems have a radial design with the protection system assumption of unidirectional power flow. The radial design results in the disconnection of customers for any given component failure. The rapid deployment of distributed energy resources conflicts with the assumption of unidirectional power flow. To maintain/improve the distribution system fault tolerance for a grid with high penetration of distributed energy resources requires improvement. Blockchain can add value to improve fault-tolerant grid operations. That can be achieved using blockchain’s core features of distributed consensus-based decision-making process and immutability. In the process of preparing for an event or system restoration, there is a need for reliable data and system situational awareness. The system situational awareness enables accurate planning for possible scenarios and system restoration after an event, an area where blockchain’s distributed architecture can help. The value of blockchain for a fault-tolerant grid operation is elaborated with three use cases: 1) fault location, isolation, and service restoration; 2) topology identification; and 3) data configuration. These use cases demonstrate how blockchain-based architecture can facilitate bridging the vulnerabilities of the existing implementation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗