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DOE OSTI2017

Case Study for the ARRA-funded GSHP Demonstration at Furman University

With funding provided by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, 26 ground source heat pump (GSHP) projects were competitively selected in 2009 to demonstrate the benefits of GSHP systems and innovative technologies for cost reduction and/or performance improvement. One of the selected demonstration projects was proposed by Furman University for ten student housing buildings—the North Village located on the campus in Greeneville, South Carolina. All ten buildings are identical in floor plan and construction. Each building is conditioned by an identical GSHP system consisting of 25 water-to-air heat pump (WAHP) units, a closed-loop vertical ground heat exchanger (GHX) installed under an adjacent parking lot, and two redundant 7.5 hp variable-speed pumps to circulate water through the GHX and the WAHPs. The actual performance of the GSHP systems is analyzed with available measured data for 2014. The annual energy performance is compared with a baseline scenario in which the building is conditioned by air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) with the minimum allowed efficiencies specified in ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2013 (SEER 13 for cooling and 7.8 HSPF for heating) and supplemental electric heaters. The comparison is made in terms of energy savings, operating cost savings, cost-effectiveness, and environmental benefits. Finally, limitations in conducting this analysis are identified and recommendations for further improving the operational efficiency of the GSHP systems are made.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Reconstruction of Six-Dimensional Phase Space

A phase space is a mathematical representation of all possible physical states of a system. Particle beams at Fermilab exist within a six-dimensional (6D) phase space defined by three positional components, (x, y, z) and three momentum components, (px, py, pz). To reconstruct this space implies taking measurement data from detectors and mapping out particle behavior using computational methods. The beam detectors, however, are only able to detect spatial distribution among the events of the beam, therefore being limited to positional data. Also, due to the vast number of events in a particle beam, it is extremely difficult to analyze and differentiate every single one’s behavior. However, with Machine Learning (ML), which can distinguish between patterns and map out particle behavior more efficiently. We first used the particle beam software, G4beamline, to simulate a 10,000-event muon beam, adjusting parameters such as initial momentum magnitude (p¬0) and virtual detector position. Using ten virtual detectors, we analyzed p0 values such that minimum 9,990 events were analyzed by every detector. We then input the data from these beam simulations to a C++ program, that randomly selects 100 events, and creates a 2D histogram based on spatial distribution, detector position, and event intensity. This process is repeated 100 times to create 100 histograms per p0 value. These images were then input to a modified ResNet18 Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for training, and to predict p0 from some unseen set of histograms. The model was accurate when trained on momentum increments of 5 MeV/c and provided with denser training samples around highly variable test values. These results displayed machine learning being able to accurately predict p0 from being trained on different particle behaviors.

Shirlee, Jermain [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2018

Amplicon Sequencing Reveals Microbiological Signatures in Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage Basins

Water quality is an important determinant for the structural integrity of alloy cladded fuels and assemblies during long-term wet storage. Detailed characterization of a water filled storage basin for spent nuclear reactor fuel was performed following the formation and proliferation of an amorphous white flocculent. White precipitant was sampled throughout the storage basin for chemical and spectroscopic characterization, and eDNA was extracted for pyrosequencing of bacterial rRNA gene diversity. Accordingly, spectroscopic analyses indicated the precipitant to be primarily amorphous to crystalline aluminum (oxy) hydroxides with minor associated elemental components including Fe, Si, Ti, and U. High levels of dissolved carbon were co-localized with the precipitant relative to bulk water. Bacterial densities were highly variable between sampling locations and with depth; cell numbers (log scale) ranged from 5.6 to 4.89 cells / mL. Bacterial diversity that was physically associated with the aluminum (oxy) hydroxide complexes exceeded an estimated 4,000 OTUs / amplicon library (3% cutoff) and the greatest percent majority of sequences were aligned to the families Burkholderiales (23%), Nitrospiraceae (23%), Hyphomicrobiaceae (17%), and Comamonadaceae (6%). We surmise that episodic changes in the physical and chemical properties of the basin contribute to the polymerization of aluminum (oxy) hydroxides, which in turn can chemisorb nutrients, carbon ligands and bacterial cells from the surrounding bulk aqueous phase. As such, these precipitants should establish favorable microhabitats for bacterial colonization and growth. Comparative analyses of 16S rRNA gene amplicon libraries across diverse environmental landscapes were performed and microbiological signatures unique to the spent nuclear fuel storage basin environment were revealed. These insights could spur the development of tractable bioindicators that are specific of and diagnostic for water quality at discrete locations and finer scales of resolution, marking an important contribution for improved water quality and management of spent nuclear fuel storage facilities.

aluminum↗

DOE OSTI2023

Structure-guided design of a broadly cross-reactive multivalent group a streptococcal vaccine

The M protein of group A streptococci (Strep A) is a major virulence determinant and protective antigen. The N-terminal region of the M protein is variable in sequence, defines the M/emm type, and contains epitopes that elicit opsonic antibodies that protect animals from challenge infections. Although there are >200 M types of Strep A, there is now evidence that structurally related M proteins can be grouped into clusters and that immunity may be cluster-specific in addition to M type-specific. This observation has led to recent studies of structure-based design of multivalent M peptide vaccines to select peptides predicted to cross-react with heterologous M types to improve vaccine coverage. In the current study, we have applied a refined series of peptide structural algorithms to predict immunological cross-reactivity among 117N-terminal M peptides representing the most prevalent M types of Strep A. Based on the results of the structural analyses, in combination with global M type prevalence data, we constructed a 32-valent vaccine containing 19 cross-reactive vaccine candidates predicted to cross-react with 37 heterologous M peptides to which were added 13 type-specific M peptides. Further, the 4-protein recombinant vaccine was immunogenic in rabbits and elicited significant levels of antibodies against 31/32 (97%) vaccine peptides and 28/37 (76%) peptides predicted to cross-react. The vaccine antisera also promoted opsonophagocytic killing of vaccine and cross-reactive M types of Strep A. Based on a recent analysis of M type prevalence of Strep A, the potential global coverage of the 32-valent vaccine is ~90%, ranging from 68% in Africa to 95% in North America. Our results indicate the utility of structure-based design that may be applied to future studies of broadly protective M peptide vaccines.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Simultaneous beam sampling and aperture shape optimization for SPORT

Purpose: Station parameter optimized radiation therapy (SPORT) was recently proposed to fully utilize the technical capability of emerging digital linear accelerators, in which the station parameters of a delivery system, such as aperture shape and weight, couch position/angle, gantry/collimator angle, can be optimized simultaneously. SPORT promises to deliver remarkable radiation dose distributions in an efficient manner, yet there exists no optimization algorithm for its implementation. The purpose of this work is to develop an algorithm to simultaneously optimize the beam sampling and aperture shapes. Methods: The authors build a mathematical model with the fundamental station point parameters as the decision variables. To solve the resulting large-scale optimization problem, the authors devise an effective algorithm by integrating three advanced optimization techniques: column generation, subgradient method, and pattern search. Column generation adds the most beneficial stations sequentially until the plan quality improvement saturates and provides a good starting point for the subsequent optimization. It also adds the new stations during the algorithm if beneficial. For each update resulted from column generation, the subgradient method improves the selected stations locally by reshaping the apertures and updating the beam angles toward a descent subgradient direction. The algorithm continues to improve the selected stations locally and globally by a pattern search algorithm to explore the part of search space not reachable by the subgradient method. By combining these three techniques together, all plausible combinations of station parameters are searched efficiently to yield the optimal solution. Results: A SPORT optimization framework with seamlessly integration of three complementary algorithms, column generation, subgradient method, and pattern search, was established. The proposed technique was applied to two previously treated clinical cases: a head and neck and a prostate case. It significantly improved the target conformality and at the same time critical structure sparing compared with conventional intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). In the head and neck case, for example, the average PTV coverage D99% for two PTVs, cord and brainstem max doses, and right parotid gland mean dose were improved, respectively, by about 7%, 37%, 12%, and 16%. Conclusions: The proposed method automatically determines the number of the stations required to generate a satisfactory plan and optimizes simultaneously the involved station parameters, leading to improved quality of the resultant treatment plans as compared with the conventional IMRT plans.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2016

Spatial correlation between dust and hα emission in dwarf irregular galaxies

Using a sample of dwarf irregular galaxies selected from the ALFALFA blind H i-survey and observed using the VIMOS IFU, we investigate the relationship between Hα emission and Balmer optical depth (τ{sub b}). We find a positive correlation between Hα luminosity surface density and Balmer optical depth in 8 of 11 at ≥0.8σ significance (6 of 11 at ≥1.0σ) galaxies. Our spaxels have physical scales ranging from 30 to 80 pc, demonstrating that the correlation between these two variables continues to hold down to spatial scales as low as 30 pc. Using the Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient to test for correlation between Σ{sub Hα} and τ{sub b} in all the galaxies combined, we find ρ=0.39, indicating a positive correlation at 4σ significance. Our low stellar-mass galaxy results are in agreement with observations of emission line regions in larger spiral galaxies, indicating that this relationship is independent of the size of the galaxy hosting the emission line region. The positive correlation between Hα luminosity and Balmer optical depth within spaxels is consistent with the hypothesis that young star-forming regions are surrounded by dusty birth-clouds.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

STOMP-W

STOMP is a numerical simulator, developed by PNNL, for solving problems involving multifluid coupled flow and reactive transport in geologic media. The code has been under development at PNNL for more than twentyfive years. This release of STOMP will allow users to directly access the software, and will be limited to selected operational modes. The initial release will include STOMPW. Additional operational modes will be released depending on market trends and user needs.The STOMP simulator has been available to parties outside of PNNL via license agreements. A new trend in projects supported by the U.S. government is that software be available as open source. This release of the STOMP software will meet that need. The initial target operational mode, STOMPW, is one that solves isothermal problems involving variably saturated geologic systems with nonreactive solutes and reactive species. The capabilities of this simulator are often applied to environmental stewardship and restoration problems, such as those at the Hanford Site.

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2023

Air Source Heat Pumps in Very Cold Climates

Air source heat pumps (ASHPs) in heating mode use a refrigeration cycle to remove heat from the outside air and transfer it into a building. Therefore, ASHPs have the potential to save energy compared to conventional heat sources that create the heat as opposed to transferring it from outside. Many cold climate ASHPs available on the market today can operate at outside temperatures of -25 degrees C (-13 degrees F) or even lower. As a result of technological advances and other factors, there is growing interest in ASHPs in cold climates, including very cold regions such as Alaska. However, guidance on the selection, installation, and operation of ASHPs in these very cold climates is limited, as significant data gaps exist regarding the performance of ASHPs in very cold environments. To address these data gaps and guide future innovations, our research team has studied the field performance of several ASHP installations in Alaska and done lab evaluations of several ASHP models using a cold chamber. While a cold chamber cannot fully reflect field conditions, it allowed for changing one variable at a time and gaining additional understanding of the behavior of ASHPs that would be difficult to gain from field studies only. This study focused on two main variables: the temperature in the chamber (representing the outdoor temperature) and the level of thermal loading of the ASHP. The results from the field as well as the lab show that ASHPs can operate with relatively high efficiency even in very cold climates if used in appropriate situations and in an appropriate way. It was found that not only the outside temperature, but also the level of thermal loading is a significant factor affecting the ASHP efficiency and needs to be carefully considered when sizing and operating ASHPs in very cold climates.

air source heat pump↗

DOE OSTI2015

Analysis of erosion/corrosion data for high-level waste pipelines at Hanford - 15519

Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) has implemented a fitness-for-service program which will evaluate the degraded condition of the tank farm waste transfer system. The Tank Farms Waste Transfer System Fitness-for-Service Requirements and Recommendations, includes a requirement to inspect primary piping, encasements, and jumpers for corrosion/erosion. The 242-A Evaporator pump room was upgraded by adding instrumentation to the feed and return jumpers, prior to running the next campaign. As part of this upgrade, several jumpers were removed for disposal and a total of five jumpers were selected for ultrasonic thickness (UT) inspection. The jumpers selected were the following: 18-4, C-4 and 5, J-13A, 13-K, and 19-5. All of these jumpers will be removed permanently except for jumper 19-5 which will be reinstalled for further service. As part of this study, several jumpers from the AW-02E Feed Pit were also removed for disposal and two were selected for UT inspection. The jumpers selected were the 1-4 and B-2 which were packaged and sent to the 222-S Laboratory for UT assessments. This paper includes details of each jumper as well as the estimated remaining useful life (ERUL), if applicable, for its components based on the wall thinning measured in elbows and straight sections. The jumper's ultrasonic thickness measurements are plotted and trends are assessed based on the volume of fluid transferred or time of service. Variability in thickness is generally evaluated in two approaches, radially around the circumference of the pipe or component and longitudinally along the length. The paper also explains the analysis procedure for evaluating the different components. In particular, issues related to thinning from manufacturing different types of elbows (long radius, five diameter bend radius) are presented. Analysis techniques are developed for elbows that differentiate thinning from erosion/corrosion and manufacturing which is critical for this analysis. Results demonstrate that in most components, the thickness measurements are still greater than the manufactured nominal thickness. For the cases in which the thickness is below the nominal thickness, the ERUL well exceeds the life needed for servicing the Waste Treatment Plant. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2014

Compressor Selection and Equipment Sizing for Cold Climate Heat Pumps

In order to limit heating capacity degradation at -25 C (-13 F) ambient to 25%, compared to the nominal rating point capacity at 8.3 C (47 F), an extensive array of design and sizing options were investigated, based on fundamental equipment system modeling and building energy simulation. Sixteen equipment design options were evaluated in one commercial building and one residential building, respectively in seven cities. The energy simulation results were compared to three baseline cases: 100% electric resistance heating, a 9.6 HSPF single-speed heat pump unit, and 90% AFUE gas heating system. The general recommendation is that variable-speed compressors and tandem compressors, sized such that their rated heating capacity at a low speed matching the building design cooling load, are able to achieve the capacity goal at low ambient temperatures by over-speeding, for example, a home with a 3.0 ton design cooling load, a tandem heat pump could meet this cooling load running a single compressor, while running both compressors to meet heating load at low ambient temperatures in a cold climate. Energy savings and electric resistance heat reductions vary with building types, energy codes and climate zones. Oversizing a heat pump can result in larger energy saving in a less energy efficient building and colder regions due to reducing electric resistance heating. However, in a more energy-efficient building or for buildings in warmer climates, one has to consider balance between reduction of resistance heat and addition of cyclic loss.

Building Energy Simulation↗

DOE OSTI2016

Investigation of boundary-layer wind predictions during nocturnal low-level jet events using the Weather Research and Forecasting model

Simulations of two periods featuring three consecutive low level jet (LLJ) events in the US Upper Great Plains during the autumn of 2011 were conducted to explore the impacts of various setup configurations and physical process models on simulated flow parameters within the lowest 200 m above the surface, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Sensitivities of simulated flow parameters to the horizontal and vertical grid spacing, planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface model (LSM) physics options, were assessed. Data from a Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) system, deployed to the Weather Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP; Finley et al. 2013) were used to evaluate the accuracy of simulated wind speed and direction at 80 m above the surface, as well as their vertical distributions between 120 and 40 m, covering the typical span of contemporary tall wind turbines. All of the simulations qualitatively captured the overall diurnal cycle of wind speed and stratification, producing LLJs during each overnight period, however large discrepancies occurred at certain times for each simulation in relation to the observations. 54-member ensembles encompassing changes of the above discussed configuration parameters displayed a wide range of simulated vertical distributions of wind speed and direction, and potential temperature, reflecting highly variable representations of stratification during the weakly stable overnight conditions. Root mean square error (RMSE) statistics show that different ensemble members performed better and worse in various simulated parameters at different times, with no clearly superior configuration . Simulations using a PBL parameterization designed specifically for the stable conditions investigated herein provided superior overall simulations of wind speed at 80 m, demonstrating the efficacy of targeting improvements of physical process models in areas of known deficiencies. However, the considerable magnitudes of the RMSE values of even the best performing simulations indicate ample opportunities for further improvements.

Mirocha, Jeff D.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Intelligent load pattern modeling and denoising using improved variational mode decomposition for various calendar periods

This paper proposes a novel approach to identify the load patterns considering calendar impact and denoising process, which advances the state of art of load identification and load forecasting to a more flexible and adaptive extent by revealing the correlation between load profile and the substantial influence factors. With the rapid development and the promising application of energy intemet and grid modernization, the accurate load modeling and forecasting especially by load pattern modeling (LPM) have become more and more critical to observe and estimate load profile so as to optimize the operation efficiency of the power grid. Traditional methods mostly focus on the static LPM itself which are unable to account the non-linear and highly dynamic load fluctuations in order to balance the demand of the power grid during various calendar period (VCP) scheduling. In this paper, a load pattern modeling method for power grid considering the impact of typical calendar effects is proposed using a combination of improved variational mode decomposition (IVMD) and deep belief network (DBN) algorithm. Firstly, an index of load curve curvature (LCC) is proposed to improve the selection of value K in the conventional VMD algorithm. The value K of the intrinsic modality is determined by adopting LCC to better quantify the average instantaneous frequency of the modal decomposition of the VMD and to reduce the elevated stochasticity of k. Secondly, an optimization formulation is developed based on adaptive segmented loop decomposition of the typical correlation coefficient to suppress the edge effect in VMD decomposition, which would enable the reconstructed curve to incorporate the variabilities from the initial data. Finally, the IVMD and DBN algorithms are jointly implemented to optimize the accuracy of VCP load pattern modeling curve regression. Numerical examples have been performed with the results proving that the proposed method significantly outperforms the state-of-art in reducing the modeling error of VCP load curve, improving the overall forecasting accuracy, and reducing load dispatching cost.

deep belief network↗

DOE OSTI2022

Stochastic simulation of occupant-driven energy use in a bottom-up residential building stock model

The residential buildings sector is one of the largest electricity consumers worldwide and contributes disproportionally to peak electricity demand in many regions. Strongly driven by occupant activities, household energy consumption is stochastic and heterogeneous in nature. However, most residential energy models applied by industry use homogeneous, deterministic activity schedules, which work well for predictions of annual energy consumption, but can result in unrealistic hourly or sub-hourly electric load profiles, with exaggerated or muted peaks. The increasing proportion of variable renewable energy generators means that representing the heterogeneity and stochasticity of occupant behavior is now crucial for reliable planning at both bulk-power and distribution-system scales. This work presents a novel and open-source occupancy simulation approach that can simulate a diverse set of individual occupant and household event schedules for all major electricity, fuel, and hot water end uses. To accomplish this, we evaluated three alternative occupant activity simulation approaches before selecting a hybrid combining time-inhomogeneous Markov chains and probability-sampling of event durations and magnitudes. Further, we integrated the stochastic occupancy simulation with an open-source bottom-up physics-simulation building stock model and published a set of 550,000 diverse household end-use activity schedules representing a national housing stock. The simulator was verified against time-use survey data, and simulation results were validated against measured end-use electricity data for accuracy and reliability. While we use data for the United States, our application demonstrates how similar approaches could be applied using the time-use survey data collected in many countries around the world.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2018

Associations of maternal exposure to triclosan, parabens, and other phenols with prenatal maternal and neonatal thyroid hormone levels

Highlights: • Triclosan was associated with lower maternal total T4 during pregnancy. • 2,4-Dichlorophenol was associated with lower maternal free T4 during pregnancy. • Propyl paraben was associated with lower maternal TSH during pregnancy. • No chemicals were associated with neonatal TSH. Environmental phenols and parabens are commonly used in personal care products and other consumer products and human exposure to these chemicals is widespread. Although human and animal studies suggest an association between exposure to phenols and parabens and thyroid hormone levels, few studies have investigated the association of in utero exposure to these chemicals and thyroid hormones in pregnant women and their neonates. We measured four environmental phenols (triclosan, benzophenone-3, and 2,4- and 2,5-dichlorophenol), and three parabens (methyl-, propyl-, and butyl paraben) in urine collected from mothers at two time points during pregnancy as part of the CHAMACOS (Center for the Health Assessment of Mothers and Children of Salinas) study. We measured free thyroxine (T4), total T4, and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) in serum of the pregnant women (N = 454) and TSH in their neonates (N = 365). We examined potential confounding by a large number of additional chemical exposures and used Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to select the most influential chemicals to include in regression models. We observed negative associations of prenatal urinary concentrations of propyl paraben and maternal TSH (β for two-fold increase = −3.26%, 95% CI: −5.55, −0.90) and negative associations of 2,4-dichlorophenol and maternal free T4 (β for two-fold increase = −0.05, 95% CI: −0.08, −0.02), after controlling for other chemical exposures. We observed negative associations of triclosan with maternal total T4 after controlling for demographic variables, but this association became non-significant after controlling for other chemicals (β for two-fold increase = −0.05, 95% CI: −0.11, 0.00). We found evidence that environmental phenols and parabens are associated with lower TSH and free T4 in pregnant women after controlling for related chemical exposures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Efficient sensitivity analysis method for chaotic dynamical systems

The direct differentiation and improved least squares shadowing methods are both developed for accurately and efficiently calculating the sensitivity coefficients of time averaged quantities for chaotic dynamical systems. The key idea is to recast the time averaged integration term in the form of differential equation before applying the sensitivity analysis method. An additional constraint-based equation which forms the augmented equations of motion is proposed to calculate the time averaged integration variable and the sensitivity coefficients are obtained as a result of solving the augmented differential equations. The application of the least squares shadowing formulation to the augmented equations results in an explicit expression for the sensitivity coefficient which is dependent on the final state of the Lagrange multipliers. The LU factorization technique to calculate the Lagrange multipliers leads to a better performance for the convergence problem and the computational expense. Numerical experiments on a set of problems selected from the literature are presented to illustrate the developed methods. The numerical results demonstrate the correctness and effectiveness of the present approaches and some short impulsive sensitivity coefficients are observed by using the direct differentiation sensitivity analysis method.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2020

Optimizing long-term monitoring of radiation air-dose rates after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant

Radiation air dose rates near the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) have been steadily decreasing over the past eight years since the release of radioactive elements in March 2011. Currently, the radiation monitoring program is expected to transition to long-term monitoring after most of the remediation activities are completed. The main long-term monitoring objectives are to (1) confirm the continuing reduction of contaminant and hazard levels, (2) provide assurance for the public, (3) accumulate the basic datasets for scientific knowledge and future preparation, and (4) detect changes or anomalies in contaminant mobility (if they occur), or any unexpected processes or events. In this work, we have developed a methodology for optimizing the monitoring locations of radiation air dose-rate monitoring. Our approach consists of three steps in order to determine monitoring locations in a systematic manner: (1) prioritizing the critical locations, such as schools or regulatory requirement locations, (2) diversifying locations that cover the key environmental controls that are known to influence contaminant mobility and distributions, and (3) capturing the heterogeneity of radiation air-dose rates across the domain. Therefore, for the second step, we use a Gaussian mixture model to identify the representative locations among multiple environmental variables, such as elevation and land-cover types. For the third step, we use a Gaussian process model to capture and estimate the heterogeneity of air-dose rates across the domain. Employing an integrated dose-rate map derived from Bayesian geostatistical methods as a reference map, we distribute the monitoring locations in such a way as to capture the heterogeneity of the reference map. Our results have shown that this approach allows us to select monitoring locations in a systematic manner such that the heterogeneity of air dose rates is captured by the minimal number of monitoring locations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Efficient prediction of concentrating solar power plant productivity using data clustering

Concentrating solar power (CSP) plants convert solar energy to electricity and can be deployed with a thermal storage capability to shift electricity generation from time periods with available solar resource to those with high electricity demand or electricity price. Rigorous optimization of plant design and operational strategies can improve the market-competitiveness and commercial viability; however, such optimization may require hundreds of annual performance simulations, each of which can be computationally expensive when including considerations such as optimization of dispatch scheduling, sub-hourly time resolution, and stochastic effects due to uncertain weather or electricity price forecasts. This paper proposes a methodology to reduce the computational burden associated with simulation of electricity yield and revenue for CSP plants over a single- or multi-year period. Data-clustering techniques are employed to select a small number of limited-duration time blocks for simulation that, when appropriately weighted, can reproduce generation and revenue over a single year or within each year of a multi-year period. After selection of appropriate data features and weighting factors defining similarity between time-series profiles, the methodology captured annual revenue within 2.3%, 1.7%, or 1.2% using simulation of 10, 30, or 50 three-day exemplar time blocks, respectively, for each of three single-year location/weather/market scenarios and five plant configurations ranging from low to high solar multiple and storage capacity. When applied to multi-year datasets, the proposed methodology can capture inter-year variability that is unavailable from typical meteorological year (TMY) datasets while simultaneously requiring simulation of less than a single year of data.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A Framework for Parametric and Predictive Uncertainty Quantification in the E3SM Land Model: Assessing Site and Observable Generalizability

Quantifying parametric uncertainty using observations from individual sites provides a critical foundation for Earth system modeling, serving as a necessary first step before scaling up to regional or global applications. This study introduces a novel computational framework designed to enhance model predictability by reducing parametric uncertainty and assessing site and observable generalizability using various observational constraints. The framework integrates five components: Model Simulation, Statistical Emulation, Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA), Model Calibration, and Model Prediction. Using the E3SM land model, we simulated site-level land-atmosphere carbon and energy fluxes from 2003 to 2007 across five evergreen needleleaf FLUXNET sites, perturbing 26 vegetation-related model parameters. Gaussian process emulators were employed to expedite GSA and model calibration. Four critical parameters that strongly influence selected land-atmosphere fluxes were identified by GSA. Bayesian approaches were used to infer parameter probability distributions leveraging synthetic data and FLUXNET observations. The results reveal that posterior parameter distributions vary significantly across different sites and observables within the same plant functional type. Probabilistic predictions indicate that parameters calibrated at one site can enhance predictive accuracy at other sites, although site heterogeneity may sometimes outweigh parametric uncertainty. Additionally, the probabilistic predictions demonstrate that calibration for one variable can also improve predictability for other variables, thereby maximizing predictive capabilities with limited observations. This framework provides a powerful approach for reducing parametric uncertainty in Earth system models and deepening our understanding of carbon dynamics and energy cycles. Its adaptability makes it a valuable tool for broader applications in Earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗