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Investigating the Impact of Power-Take-Off System Parameters and Control Law on a Rotational Wave Energy Converter’s Peak-to-Average Power Ratio Reduction

Due to the irregular nature of real waves, the power captured in a wave energy converter (WEC) system is highly variable. This is an important barrier to the effective use of WECs. To address this challenge, this study focuses on a rotational WEC power-take-off system in which high-speed and high-efficiency generators along with a torque/power smoothing inertia element can be effectively utilized. In the first phase of this study, the U.S. Department of Energy’s reference model 3 (WEC-Sim RM3; two-body point absorber), along with a slider-crank WEC, were integrated for linear to rotational conversion. Relative motion between the float and spar in RM3 was the driving force for this slider-crank WEC, which is connected to a motor/generator set through a gearbox. RM3 geometry was scaled down by 25 times to work within the limits of the physical motor/generator set used in the experimentation. Once the integration in a hardware-in-the-loop simulation environment was successfully completed, data on the peak-to-average power ratio was collected for various wave conditions including regular and irregular waves. The control algorithm designed to keep the system in resonance with waves was able to maintain relatively high speed depending on the specific gear ratio and wave period. Initial results with hardware-in-the-loop simulations reveal that gear ratio and crank radius have a strong impact on the peak-to-average power ratio. In addition, it was found that output power from the generator was maximized at a larger gear ratio, as the crank radius was increased.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗

Precipitating Snow Retrievals from Combined Airborne Cloud Radar and Millimeter-Wave Radiometer Observations

An algorithm for retrieving snow over oceans from combined cloud radar and millimeter-wave radiometer observations is developed. The algorithm involves the use of physical models to simulate cloud radar and millimeter-wave radiometer observations from basic atmospheric variables such as hydrometeor content, temperature, and relative humidity profiles and is based on an optimal estimation technique to retrieve these variables from actual observations. A high-resolution simulation of a lake-effect snowstorm by a cloud-resolving model is used to test the algorithm. That is, synthetic observations are generated from the output of the cloud numerical model, and the retrieval algorithm is applied to the synthetic data. The algorithm performance is assessed by comparing the retrievals with the reference variables used in synthesizing the observations. The synthetic observation experiment indicates good performance of the retrieval algorithm. The algorithm is also applied to real observations from the Wakasa Bay field experiment that took place over the Sea of Japan in January and February 2003. The application of the retrieval algorithm to data from the field experiment yields snow estimates that are consistent with both the cloud radar and radiometer observations.

Grecu, Mircea↗

Internal variability and forcing influence model–satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming

Climate-model simulations exhibit approximately two times more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite observations since 1979. The causes of this difference are not fully understood and are poorly quantified. Here, we apply machine learning to relate the patterns of surface-temperature change to the forced and unforced components of tropical tropospheric warming. This approach allows us to disentangle the forced and unforced change in the model-simulated temperature of the midtroposphere (TMT). In applying the climate-model-trained machine-learning framework to observations, we estimate that external forcing has produced a tropical TMT trend of 0.25 ± 0.08 K⋅decade −1 between 1979 and 2014, but internal variability has offset this warming by 0.07 ± 0.07 K⋅decade −1 . Using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) large ensemble, we also find that a discontinuity in the variability of prescribed biomass-burning aerosol emissions artificially enhances simulated tropical TMT change by 0.04 K⋅decade −1 . The magnitude of this aerosol-forcing bias will vary across climate models, but since the latest generation of climate models all use the same emissions dataset, the bias may systematically enhance climate-model trends over the satellite era. Our results indicate that internal variability and forcing uncertainties largely explain differences in satellite-versus-model warming and are important considerations when evaluating climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Air-Sea Interaction in the Evolving NASA GEOS Model

In order to understand how the climate responds to variations in forcing, one necessary component is to understand the full distribution of variability of exchanges of heat and moisture between the atmosphere and ocean. Surface heat and moisture fluxes are critical to the generation and decay of many coupled air-sea phenomena. These mechanisms operate across a number of scales and contain contributions from interactions between the anomalous (i.e. non-mean), often extreme-valued, flux components. Satellite-derived estimates of the surface turbulent and radiative heat fluxes provide an opportunity to assess results from modeling systems. Evaluation of only time mean and variability statistics, however only provides limited traceability to processes controlling what are often regime-dependent errors. This work will present an approach to evaluate the representation of the turbulent fluxes at the air-sea interface in the current and evolving Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model. A temperature and moisture vertical profile-based clustering technique is used to identify robust weather regimes, and subsequently intercompare the turbulent fluxes and near-surface parameters within these regimes in both satellite estimates and GEOS-driven data sets. Both model reanalysis (MERRA) and seasonal-to-interannual coupled GEOS model simulations will be evaluated. Particular emphasis is placed on understanding the distribution of the fluxes including extremes, and the representation of near-surface forcing variables directly related to their estimation. Results from these analyses will help identify the existence and source of regime-dependent biases in the GEOS model ocean surface turbulent fluxes. The use of the temperature and moisture profiles for weather-state clustering will be highlighted for its potential broad application to 3-D output typical of model simulations.

Clayson, Carol Anne↗

A variable-metric algorithm employing linear and quadratic penalties

A variable-metric algorithm is described that uses both linear and quadratic penalty terms for handling nonlinear constraints. Quadratic penalty coefficients are adjusted in a process which maintains a positive-definite matrix of second partial derivatives of the function without generating the large positive eigenvalues which cause zigzagging and slow convergence. The schemes suggested use inferred second-order properties not only in terms of the variable metric of the Davidson-Fletcher-Powell algorithm (or its relatives) but by estimating of second directional derivatives by fitting cubics to various functions along search directions.

Kelley, H. J.↗

Design and Performance Evaluation of a Resistive Control Using a Hydraulic PTO System for the TALOS Wave Energy Converter

This study is focused on developing a numerical model to evaluate the performance of a hydraulic PTO system for the TALOS Wave Energy Converter. The WEC device is described and the architecture of the hydraulic PTO system is presented with detail. The WEC is modeled using WEC-Sim, and the PTO is modeled using the Simscape Fluids library from Simulink. The hydraulic PTO is based on a constant pressure configuration that is suitable for WEC passive control. The hydraulic system is composed by a set of rectifying valves and two hydraulic accumulators that reduce the stiffness of the system and also serve as energy storage devices. One of the advantages of this hydraulic PTO architecture is the possibility of controlling the electric generator to operate around the optimal efficiency operating point. The main components of the hydraulic PTO are off-the-shelf devices that are commercially available, which will facility a future deployment of the designed system. The design variables used for this study are the accumulator size, the maximum pressure in the accumulators, the hydraulic motor maximum displacement, and the shaft speed in the electric generator. The performance of the system is evaluated individually, using sinusoidal inputs that replicates regular wave conditions. In addition to this, the numerical model of the PTO is coupled to a WEC-Sim simulation of the TALOS Wave Energy Converter with six PTOs to generate a wave-to-wire model. The main objective of this work is to present a comprehensive design methodology that could serve as a guideline for future research efforts focused on implementing control algorithms on multi degree of freedom WECs.

hydraulic systems↗

An open-access simulated earthquake ground-motion database for an M7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region

Comprehensive understanding of earthquake ground motions, particularly in the near-fault region of large-magnitude events, is limited by gaps in strong-motion data. This challenge is prominent in areas with high seismic hazard but infrequent large earthquakes where data is sparse and difficult to interpret. These data limitations lead to uncertainties in the development of site-specific ground motions, which are crucial for engineering risk assessments. To address these challenges, physics-based regional-scale ground-motion simulations have been developed. With the emergence of exaflop-scale computing ecosystems, it is now possible to simulate regional earthquake processes at unprecedented fidelity and generate the large number of fault rupture realizations necessary to characterize both intra- and inter-event ground-motion variability. This article introduces a new database of simulated earthquake ground motions, created for applications in earthquake engineering, earthquake planning, and emergency response. The inaugural version of the database features simulated ground motions for a magnitude 7 Hayward Fault earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Region (SFBR), using the EarthQuake SIMulation (EQSIM) simulation framework and the Graves–Pitarka kinematic rupture model. The aim is to provide high-fidelity, spatially dense, three-component motions generated on the Department of Energy’s (DOE) newest generation of graphics processing unit (GPU)-accelerated supercomputers. These motions are being made openly available to the engineering, scientific, and disaster planning communities. In addition, this work develops protocols for the efficient dissemination of these large data sets and emphasizes community engagement to build confidence in their application. This article discusses the methodology behind the data, underlying software verification and validation, scalable data management, and a user interface for data access. The goal is to facilitate widespread use and elicit expert feedback to maximize the utility and exploitation of simulated motions. While the initial focus is on the San Francisco Region, simulations for additional regions will be added as the DOE program progresses.

Simulated ground-motion database↗

Simulation-based characterization of the variability of earthquake risk to buildings in the near-field

Recent advancements in high performance computing platforms and computational workflow for regional-scale simulations are enabling unprecedented modeling of fault-to-structure earthquake processes. Regional simulations resolving ground motions at frequencies relevant to engineered systems are becoming computationally viable and provide a new capability to improve understanding of the geographical distribution and intensity of risk to buildings and critical infrastructure. As computational capabilities advance, it is essential to move beyond illustrative single rupture realizations for scenario earthquake events towards the development of a full suite of rupture realizations that appropriately characterize the range of risk to building systems. The work described in this article investigates the application of a suite of fault rupture realizations with the objective of assessing near-fault, site-specific seismic demand variability for building structures. A representative high-performance regional-scale computational model is utilized to execute ground motion and building response simulations based on 18 kinematic rupture realizations of an M7 strike-slip scenario earthquake. The fault rupture models for the scenario earthquake are created by systematically perturbing the hypocenter location and stochastically generating rupture parameters (slip, rise time, rake angle) to represent a breadth of ground motion intensities resulting from the spatial and temporal variabilities of an earthquake rupture process. The resulting seismic demand variability for three-story (short period) and forty-story (long period) steel moment-resisting frame buildings is characterized in terms of the median and distribution of peak inter-story drift ratio for a range of near-fault sites. The full suite of 18 fault rupture realizations and approximately 280,000 nonlinear dynamic building simulations indicate that the three-story building undergoes higher median seismic demand and significantly greater variability of demand at a given site than the forty-story building, which has important implications for the level of certainty in predicting building performance during an earthquake. The simulations performed provide deeper insight into the relationship between fault rupture parameterization and building response, which is essential information for developing a representative suite of rupture realizations for specific earthquake scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Northern Eurasian Heat Waves and Droughts

This article reviews our understanding of the characteristics and causes of northern Eurasian summertime heat waves and droughts. Additional insights into the nature of temperature and precipitation variability in Eurasia on monthly to decadal time scales and into the causes and predictability of the most extreme events are gained from the latest generation of reanalyses and from supplemental simulations with the NASA GEOS-5 AGCM. Key new results are: 1) the identification of the important role of summertime stationary Rossby waves in the development of the leading patterns of monthly Eurasian surface temperature and precipitation variability (including the development of extreme events such as the 2010 Russian heat wave), 2) an assessment of the mean temperature and precipitation changes that have occurred over northern Eurasia in the last three decades and their connections to decadal variability and global trends in SST, and 3) the quantification (via a case study) of the predictability of the most extreme simulated heat wave/drought events, with some focus on the role of soil moisture in the development and maintenance of such events. A literature survey indicates a general consensus that the future holds an enhanced probability of heat waves across northern Eurasia, while there is less agreement regarding future drought, reflecting a greater uncertainty in soil moisture and precipitation projections. Substantial uncertainties remain in our understanding of heat waves and drought, including the nature of the interactions between the short-term atmospheric variability associated with such extremes and the longer-term variability and trends associated with soil moisture feedbacks, SST anomalies, and an overall warming world.

SST↗

Can We Infer Ocean Dynamics from Altimeter Wavenumber Spectra?

The wavenumber spectra of sea surface height (SSH) and kinetic energy (KE) have been used to infer the dynamics of the ocean. When quasi-geostrophic dynamics (QG) or surface quasi-geostrophic (SQG) turbulence dominate and an inertial subrange exists, a steep SSH wavenumber spectrum is expected with k-5 for QG turbulence and a flatter k-11/3 for SQG turbulence. However, inspection of the spectral slopes in the mesoscale band of 70 to 250 km shows that the altimeter wavenumber slopes typically are much flatter than the QG or SQG predictions over most of the ocean. Comparison of the altimeter wavenumber spectra with the spectra estimated from the output of an eddy resolving global ocean circulation model (the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model, HYCOM, at 1/25 resolution), which is forced by high frequency winds and includes the astronomical forcing of the sun and the moon, suggests that the flatter slopes of the altimeter may arise from three possible sources, the presence of internal waves, the lack of an inertial subrange in the 70 to 250 km band and noise or submesoscales at small scales. When the wavenumber spectra of SSH and KE are estimated near the internal tide generating regions, the resulting spectra are much flatter than the expectations of QG or SQG theory. If the height and velocity variability are separated into low frequency (periods greater than 2 days) and high frequency (periods less than a day), then a different pattern emerges with a relatively flat wavenumber spectrum at high frequency and a steeper wavenumber spectrum at low frequency. The stationary internal tides can be removed from the altimeter spectrum, which steepens the spectral slopes in the energetic internal wave regions. Away from generating regions where the internal waves

Richman, James↗

Transient flow analysis of the AEDC/HPDE MHD generator

A hybrid Lax-Wendroff/Method of Characteristics computer code has been developed for numerical simulation of flow transients associated with the operation of MHD generator facilities. The code employs the shock-fitting method, with an Eulerian formulation of the basic conservation equations and explicit tracking of shock waves. Pressure, temperature, and velocity are used as primary integration variables to simplify interfacing of the code with real-gas thermodynamic and transport property tables. Application of the code to the simulation of selected transients for the AEDC/HPDE MHD generator produced results that are in good agreement with experimental observations.

Wilson, D. R.↗

The Pursuit of K: Reflections on the Current State-of-the-Art in Stress Intensity Factor Solutions for Practical Aerospace Applications

The elastic stress intensity factor (SIF, commonly denoted as K) is the foundation of practical fracture mechanics (FM) analysis for aircraft structures. This single parameter describes the first-order effects of stress magnitude and distribution as well as the geometry of both structure/component and crack. Hence, the calculation of K is often the most significant step in fatigue analysis based on FM. This presentation will provide several reflections on the current state-of-the-art in SIF solution methods used for practical aerospace applications, including a brief historical perspective, descriptions of some recent and ongoing advances, and comments on some remaining challenges. Newman and Raju made significant early contributions to practical structural analysis by developing closed-form SIF equations for surface and corner cracks in simplified geometries, often based on empirical fits of finite element (FE) solutions. Those solutions (and others like them) were sometimes revised as new analyses were conducted or limitations discovered. The foundational solutions have exhibited striking longevity, despite the relatively "coarse" FE models employed many decades ago. However, in recent years, the accumulation of different generations of solutions for the same nominal geometry has led to some confusion (which solution is correct?), and steady increases in computational capabilities have facilitated the discovery of inaccuracies in some (not all!) of the legacy solutions. Some examples of problems and solutions are presented and discussed, including the challenge of maintaining consistency with legacy design applications. As computational power has increased, the prospect of calculating large numbers of SIF solutions for specific complex geometries with advanced numerical methods has grown more attractive. Fawaz and Andersson, for example, have been generating literally millions of new SIF solutions for different combinations of multiple cracks under simplified loading schemes using p-version FE methods. These data are invaluable, but questions remain about their practical use, because the tabular databases of key results needed to support practical life analysis can occupy gigabytes of storage for only a few classes of geometries. The prospect of using such advanced numerical methods to calculate in real time only those K solutions actually needed to support a specific crack growth analysis is also tempting, but the stark reality is that the computational cost is still so high that the approach is not practical except for specific, critical application problems. Some thoughts are offered about alternative paradigms. Compounding approaches are some of the earliest building blocks of SIF development for more complex geometries. These approaches are especially attractive because of their very low computational cost and their conceptual robustness; they are, in some ways, an intriguing contrast and complement to the brute-force numerical methods. In recent years, researchers at NRC-Canada have published remarkable results showing how compounding approaches can be used to generate accurate solutions for very difficult problems. Examples are provided of some successes--and some limitations--using this approach. These closed-form, tabulated numerical, and compounding approaches have typically been used for simple remote loading with simple load paths to the crack. However, many significant cracks occur in complex stress gradient fields. This is a job for weight function (WF) methods, where the arbitrary stress distribution on the crack plane in the corresponding uncracked body (typically determined using FE methods) is used to determine K. Several significant recent advances in WF methods and solutions are highlighted here. Fueled by advanced 3D numerical methods, many new solutions have been generated for classic geometries such as surface and corner cracks with wide ranges of geometrical validity. A new WF formulation has also be developed for part-through cracks considering the arbitrary stress gradients in all directions in the crack plane (so-called bivariant solutions). Basic WF methods have recently been combined with analytical expressions for crack plane stresses to develop a large family of accurate SIF solutions for corner, surface, and through cracks at internal or external notches with very wide ranges of shapes, sizes, acuities, and offsets. Finally, WF solutions are much faster than FE or boundary element solutions, but can still be much slower than simple closed-form solutions, especially for bivariant solutions that can require 2D numerical integration. Novel pre-integration and dynamic tabular methods have been developed that substantially increase the speed of these advanced WF solutions. The practical utility of advanced SIF methods, including both WF and direct numerical methods, is greatly enhanced if the FM life analysis can be directly and efficiently linked with digital models of the actual structure or component (e.g., FE models for stress analysis). Two recent advances of this type will be described. One approach directly interfaces the FM life analysis with the FE model of the uncracked component (including stress results). Through a powerful graphical user interface, simplified FM life models can be constructed (and visualized) directly on the component model, with the computer collecting the geometry and stress gradient information needed for the life calculation. An even more powerful paradigm uses expert logic to automatically build an optimum simple fracture model at any and every desired location in the component model, perform the life calculation, and even generate fatigue crack growth life contour maps, all with minimal user intervention. This paradigm has also been extended to the automatic calculation of fracture risk, considering uncertainty or variability in key input parameters such as initial crack size or location. Another new integrated approach links the engineering life analysis, the component model, and a 3D numerical fracture analysis built with the same component model to generate a table of SIF values at a specific location that can then be employed efficiently to perform the life calculation. Some attention must be given to verification and validation (V&V) issues and challenges: how good are these SIF solutions, how good is good enough, and does anyone believe the life answer? It is important to think critically about the different sources of error or uncertainty and to perform V&V in a hierarchal, building-block manner. Some accuracy issues for SIF solutions, for example, may actually involve independent material behavior issues, such as constraint loss effects for crack fronts near component surfaces, and can be a source of confusion. Recommendations are proposed for improved V&V approaches. This presentation will briefly but critically survey the range of issues and advances mentioned above, with a particular view towards assembling an integrated approach that combines different methods to create practical tools for real-world design and analysis problems. Examples will be selectively drawn from the recent literature, from recent enhancements in the NASGRO and DARWIN computer codes, and from previously unpublished research

CraigMcClung, R.↗

SCIFLI HORIS Windowpane Optical Analysis

This NASA Technical Memorandum summarizes windowpane optical analyses for the OSIRIS-REx (Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification and Security Regolith Explorer) mission [1] supported by the SCIFLI (Scientifically Calibrated In-Flight Imagery) team [2] at NASA Langley Research Center (NASA LaRC). The SCIFLI team led a NASA multi-center team in characterization of fused silica (FS) and anti-reflective coated (AR-coated) sapphire materials for use as aircraft windowpanes. These materials were needed for the Hypervelocity OSIRIS-REx Reentry Imaging & Spectroscopy (HORIS) mission and were tested to generate performance parameters relevant to the flight environment. Some of the assessed parameters included optical quality, transmittance, reflectance, color balance, birefringence, transmitted wavefront error, wedge, and haziness of the windows. In order to evaluate the material characteristics in a uniform manner, several criteria were held constant. For example, the physical dimensions of the test articles were held constant (i.e., 17-inch diameter aircraft windowpane and 2-inch diameter witness samples). In this way, the comparison of test results from one material specimen to another was invariant with regard to the manner in which the tests were conducted. This also reduced the variability in how the data were reported. As a result, the results shown in this report, including test data generated by NASA can be used for windowpane material evaluation and future material design trades. Window designers can use the data and the testing method along with the testing matrices to efficiently match material performance to their design and mission objectives and requirements. Standardized testing methodologies and data reduction procedures are described in this report. Unless otherwise noted in the data itself, all the windowpane materials were tested in order to characterize their performance for the HORIS mission. One appendix has been included in this report. These include detailed wavefront interferograms of transmitted wavefront error and optical wedge used in the generation of aggregated material performance.

SCIFLI↗

Linking DSC/TGA to Cell Levels: Energetics, Evolved Gases, and Thermal Safety of NMC811‐Graphite Micro‐Cell

Thermochemical characterization of battery materials links intrinsic material properties to decomposition pathways, heat generation, and gas evolution that govern performance and safety. Despite extensive work on NMC811-Graphite, variability across partial configurations and the limited adoption of micro-cell architectures (cathode+anode+electrolyte+separator) hinder robust cell-scale interpretation. Accordingly, this work establishes a bottom-up, component-resolved methodology integrating DSC/TGA, evolved gas analysis (EGA), and in situ XRD to link decomposition pathways and energy release across partial and micro-cell configurations, providing a transferable assessment of safety and stability in emerging chemistries. In separator-free configurations, the gas–solid reaction between cathode-evolved O 2 and anode-leached Li dominates the net heat release (1139 J g −1 ). In contrast, in the micro-cell configuration, the separator hinders O 2 transport and alters the timing and pathways of other reactions, and reduces the net energy release to 618 J g −1 . Energy release was organized into defined temperature windows that provide a framework for a thermodynamic model combining quantified gas evolution with selected decomposition pathways and effective reaction enthalpies to estimate net specific energy release, with agreement between DSC and cell-level tests. Ex situ XPS of heat-treated samples extends post-mortem analysis to thermal-abuse regimes, supporting key pathway elements.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Markovian transport processes in a heterogeneous, variably saturated watershed: A multi-domain spatial Markov model

Transport processes in watersheds remain challenging to describe accurately with upscaled models because of their intricate complexities at multiple scales that can lead to multi-modal, non-Fickian breakthrough curves. One of the recent advances in solute transport modeling has been the Lagrangian spatial Markov model (SMM), which describes transport using velocity increments and models the correlated transitions between them. The method has been applied previously to saturated porous media and fractured media, but these successful applications suggest it may be useful for describing watershed scale processes as well. An existing, 3-D, heterogeneous variably saturated model of a headwaters catchment and classical random walk particle tracking were used to generate a forward simulation and the resulting transport was analyzed with a spatial Markov framework. Existing SMM methods were used to analyze the transport paths through the complex, unconfined domain and we found that the vadose zone plays an important role in the correlation structure. As such, a new kind of SMM is proposed, termed a multi-domain SMM (MD-SMM), that uses separate correlation models for auto-transitions in the vadose zone and the saturated zone, and for the cross-transitions between them. The MD-SMM improves representation of transport relative to the single domain model and can naturally delineate times when a particle is in the vadose zone or the saturated zone, adding an additional degree of realism to the upscaled model. Lastly, we show that the transition probability matrix for transport in the saturated portion of this unconfined system is approximately Markovian, which is an important validation of the proposed framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value

While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. Such differences could be the result of differences in assumptions about future technology costs and/or differences in model approaches for capturing other aspects of technology competitiveness. Here we introduce a consistent competitiveness metric, profitability-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (or PLCOE), to an integrated assessment model (EPPA) to evaluate the representation of technology competition, including VRE, in low-emission scenarios. We show that representing the value of technology (alongside cost) may significantly impact VRE deployment relative to scenarios without such an adjustment. In addition, we show that varying VRE costs by about 35% in 2050 results in differences in VRE deployment that span much of the range in outcomes (over the same period) observed in likely 2C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, suggesting that both cost and value are key drivers of VRE deployment in such scenarios. Given the central role that VRE technologies play in the electricity mix across most scenarios, we also find that alternative cost assumptions for VRE technologies can lead to changes in electricity prices, the associated demand for electricity, and total final and primary energy consumption. However, the demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions in the 2C scenarios considered here.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Assessing thermal comfort and participation in residential demand flexibility programs

Residential space-conditioning-based demand flexibility (DF) has become an increasingly sought-after method for demand-side load management to enhance grid reliability and facilitate integration of renewable energy generation. However, predicting the effectiveness and flexibility of residential DF resources is challenging due to the variability in household energy use behaviors. Current estimates show that only 50 % of projected savings from DF resources are actualized due to regulatory, technological, and social barriers. From a household perspective, concerns over thermal comfort during space conditioning-based DF events significantly impact participation decisions. Currently, there is a very limited understanding of how thermal comfort during space-conditioning-based DF events in real-world settings impacts household energy use behaviors and, consequently, the success of DF programs in achieving targeted savings. This paper proposes a method to comprehensively assess the thermal comfort implications of DF strategies and presents results of their impacts on DF event participation decisions and demand savings. Here, the proposed method was applied to a heat pump DF field study in Cordova, Alaska. The study’s key findings are: 1) DF event setpoint offsets that maintain indoor operative temperatures between 18 to 22 °C (65 to 71°F) may be preferred in Cordova, Alaska; 2) Household-level thermal comfort is more sensitive to the duration of the DF event than to the degree of temperature offset from baseline conditions; 3) The delayed impact of changes in indoor operative temperature in response to setpoint offsets, both during and after a DF event, influences occupants’ thermal comfort perceptions and willingness to persistently participate in events. The findings from application of the proposed method can help inform future larger-scale occupant-centric DF programs as it can capture information not readily available through utility and device-level energy use data. Thus, it can supplement these sources and help program administrators develop occupant-centric DF strategies, enabling more accurate predictions of participation rates and savings estimates for space-conditioning-based DF programs.

Demand side management↗

Effects of Deep Reductions in Energy Storage Costs on Highly Reliable Wind and Solar Electricity Systems.

We use 36 years (1980-2015) of hourly weather data over the contiguous United States (CONUS) to assess the impact of low-cost energy storage on highly reliable electricity systems that use only variable renewable energy (VRE; wind and solar photovoltaics). Even assuming perfect transmission of wind and solar generation aggregated over CONUS, energy storage costs would need to decrease several hundred-fold from current costs (to ~$1/kWh) in fully VRE electricity systems to yield highly reliable electricity without extensive curtailment of VRE generation. The role of energy storage changes from high-cost storage competing with curtailment to fill short-term gaps between VRE generation and hourly demand to near-free storage serving as seasonal storage for VRE resources. Energy storage faces "double penalties" in VRE/storage systems: with increasing capacity, (1) the additional storage is used less frequently and (2) hourly electricity costs would become less volatile, thus reducing price arbitrage opportunities for the additional storage.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗