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At least 1,405 records · Page 78
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2008

Statistical Issues for Uncontrolled Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering objects to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. The statistical tools use this information to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of the analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. This inevitably involves assumptions that simplify the problem and make it tractable, but it is often difficult to test the accuracy and applicability of these assumptions. This paper looks at a number of these theoretical assumptions, examining the mathematical basis for the hazard calculations, and outlining the conditions under which the simplifying assumptions hold. In addition, this paper will also outline some new tools for assessing ground hazard risk in useful ways. Also, this study is able to make use of a database of known uncontrolled reentry locations measured by the United States Department of Defense. By using data from objects that were in orbit more than 30 days before reentry, sufficient time is allowed for the orbital parameters to be randomized in the way the models are designed to compute. The predicted ground footprint distributions of these objects are based on the theory that their orbits behave basically like simple Kepler orbits. However, there are a number of factors - including the effects of gravitational harmonics, the effects of the Earth's equatorial bulge on the atmosphere, and the rotation of the Earth and atmosphere - that could cause them to diverge from simple Kepler orbit behavior and change the ground footprints. The measured latitude and longitude distributions of these objects provide data that can be directly compared with the predicted distributions, providing a fundamental empirical test of the model assumptions.

Matney, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2016

Statistical Issues for Calculating Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. This information, combined with information on the expected ground path of the reentry, is used to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of this analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. This inevitably involves assumptions that simplify the problem and make it tractable, but it is often difficult to test the accuracy and applicability of these assumptions. This paper builds on previous IAASS work to re-examine many of these theoretical assumptions, including the mathematical basis for the hazard calculations, and outlining the conditions under which the simplifying assumptions hold. This study also employs empirical and theoretical information to test these assumptions, and makes recommendations how to improve the accuracy of these calculations in the future.

Matney, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2016

Statistical Issues for Calculating Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. This information, combined with information on the expected ground path of the reentry, is used to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of this analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. This inevitably involves assumptions that simplify the problem and make it tractable, but it is often difficult to test the accuracy and applicability of these assumptions. This paper builds on previous IAASS work to re-examine one of these theoretical assumptions.. This study employs empirical and theoretical information to test the assumption of a fully random decay along the argument of latitude of the final orbit, and makes recommendations how to improve the accuracy of this calculation in the future.

Bacon, John B.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Utilizing Commercial Submersible Mixer Pumps for Sludge Removal in Savannah River Site's Tank 26 - 20289

The Savannah River Site (SRS) Liquid Waste System (LWS) safely manages, stores, treats, and dispositions liquid radioactive waste. The LWS consists of 51 underground waste storage tanks (eight of which are operationally closed and filled with grout), waste evaporators, treatment facilities, and solidification facilities, known as the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) and Saltstone Production Facility (SPF). One of the waste storage tanks, Tank 26, was placed into service in 1980 as an F Tank Farm (FTF) Evaporator Feed Tank. From 1980 to 2013, Tank 26 received F Canyon receipts and dilute supernate that was then transferred to the 242-16F FTF Evaporator for volume reduction. In 2013, the steam tube bundle failed in the FTF Evaporator, and the decision was made not to repair/resume evaporator operation. During operation of Tank 26, solids built up to a level of 2.03 m in the tank with a volume of 1062.9 kL. Due to the evaporator failure and subsequent shutdown, the solids in Tank 26 were selected to feed Sludge Batch 10, which is collected and prepped prior to being sent to DWPF for final disposition. To accomplish solids removal, Commercial Submersible Mixer Pumps (CSMPs) were selected to slurry the solids in preparation to be sent to Tank 51. Four CSMPs were installed in Tank 26 with each one installed in a separate quadrant of Tank 26. This work would mark the first deployment of CSMPs in an SRS waste tank. The CSMPs were developed in response to operational issues from previous mixing pumps and budgetary constraints. The CSMPs use the concept of modifying commercially available equipment for nuclear waste applications. The CSMPs consist of a 230-horsepower submersible mixing pump (manufactured by GPM, Inc.) joined to a mast fabricated at SRS. For this application, Savannah River Remediation (SRR) design services was challenged to provide a mast design that required no steel superstructure support system on top of Tank 26. Also, SRR design services provided a simplified Tank 26 riser interface that did not require extensive machine parts to adjust height of the suction screen of the CSMP within the tank. Other design improvements include no requirements for tank top radiation monitors and no requirements for flushing of the CSMPs during startup/shutdown operations. The CSMPs were operated at an initial height of 2.29 m above the Tank 26 bottom for 10 days. After sludge sounding, the CSMPs were lowered to a height of 1.52 m with no issues due to proper work planning and the simplified riser interface. With the CSMPs lowered to a level of 1.52 meters above the tank bottom, the CSMPs were operated for 12 days and another sounding was performed. The sounding level came back matching the disturbance depth results of the first pump run. Chemistry samples were analyzed while the tank was left to settle. The analysis revealed enough weight percent solids to provide good feed to Sludge Batch 10. Also, the results revealed the supernate within the mixture would provide good salt solution feed to Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) Salt Batch 3. So, the plan was modified to let the disturbed solids settle and decant the salt solution for addition to SWPF Salt Batch 3. Then water will be added back to Tank 26, and the CSMPs run in order to wash the solids to decrease settling time prior to being sent to Tank 51 for Sludge Batch 10. Utilizing CSMPs for waste removal in an SRS Tank has provided a cost-effective means for further waste removal efforts. In addition, the CSMPs are easier to operate by utilizing a robust and simplified design. The CSMPs performed quite well with no process shutdown or delays during operation. As a result, CSMPs are integral to the future of removing radioactive waste from storage tanks at SRS. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Simplified Method to Evaluate Energy Life Cycle Cost Effectiveness for Electron Ion Collider Infrastructure Design

The new DOE Order 436.1A approved on April 25 th provides instructions to incorporate principles of sustainability early in the project planning and design process. Integral to the principles of sustainability is life cycle cost effectiveness Life Cycle Cost (LCC) Analysis is vital to the sustainable energy efficient design and construction of the Electron Ion Collider (EIC). Reducing energy consumption has a direct impact on reducing life cycle operating costs with benefits to the environment. The early stages of the project are the most influential where design decisions and so life-cycle considerations during this stage can result in significant impacts to the energy footprint of the design. For example, when comparing between various options, it is necessary to compare the energy savings in $\frac{US$}{kWh}$ to the capital cost in US$. And although uncertain by nature, it is important to factor in the expected inflation and discount of future spendings to compare with the cost of immediate capital investment. This tech note presents a tool that engineers can readily use to analyze energy operating costs using an incremental life cycle cost method when comparing different design alternative.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS1986

A domain method for shape design sensitivity analysis of built-up structures

A numerical method of obtaining accurate shape design sensitivity information for built-up structures is developed and demonstrated through examples. The method utilizes the basic character of the finite element method that gives accurate information not on the boundary, but in the domain. The method is shown to drastically simplify the derivation of shape design sensitivity formulas for complex built-up structures.

Choi, Kyung K.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Enhanced rotor modeling tailored for rub dynamic stability analysis and simulation

New methods are presented that allow straightforward application of complex nonlinearities to finite element based rotor dynamic analyses. The key features are: (1) the methods can be implemented with existing finite element or dynamic simulation programs, (2) formulation is general for simple application to a wide range of problems, and (3) implementation is simplified because nonlinear aspects are separated from the linear part of the model. The new techniques are illustrated with examples of inertial nonlinearity and torquewhirl which can be important in rubbing turbomachinery. The sample analyses provide new understanding of these nonlinearities which are discussed.

Davis, R. R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Updated Economic Model for Estimation of GDP Losses in the MACCS Offsite Consequence Analysis Code RDEIM Model Report for MACCS v4.2

This report updates the Regional Disruption Economic Impact Model (RDEIM) GDP-based model described in Bixler et al. (2020) used in the MACCS accident consequence analysis code. MACCS is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) used to perform probabilistic health and economic consequence assessments for atmospheric releases of radionuclides. It is also used by international organizations, both reactor owners and regulators. It is intended and most commonly used for hypothetical accidents that could potentially occur in the future rather than to evaluate past accidents or to provide emergency response during an ongoing accident. It is designed to support probabilistic risk and consequence analyses and is used by the NRC, U.S. nuclear licensees, the Department of Energy, and international vendors, licensees, and regulators. The update of the RDEIM model in version 4.2 expresses the national recovery calculation explicitly, rather than implicitly as in the previous version. The calculation of the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. However, anticipated gains from recovery are now allocated across all the GDP loss types – direct, indirect, and induced – whereas in version 4.1, all recovery gains were accounted for in the indirect loss type. To achieve this, we’ve introduced new methodology to streamline and simplify the calculation of all types of losses and recovery. In addition, RDEIM includes other kinds of losses, including tangible wealth. This includes loss of tangible assets (e.g., depreciation) and accident expenditures (e.g., decontamination). This document describes the updated RDEIM economic model and provides examples of loss and recovery calculation, results analysis, and presentation. Changes to the tangible cost calculation and accident expenditures are described in section 2.2. The updates to the RDEIM input-output (I-O) model are not expected to affect the final benchmark results Bixler et al. (2020), as the RDEIM calculation for the total national GDP losses remains unchanged. The reader is referred to the MACCS revision history for other cost modelling changes since version 4.0 that may affect the benchmark. RDEIM has its roots in a code developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Department of Homeland Security to estimate short-term losses from natural and manmade accidents, called the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct). This model was adapted and modified for MACCS. It is based on I-O theory, which is widely used in economic modeling. It accounts for direct losses to a disrupted region affected by an accident, indirect losses to the national economy due to disruption of the supply chain, and induced losses from reduced spending by displaced workers. RDEIM differs from REAcct in in its treatment and estimation of indirect loss multipliers, elimination of double-counting associated with inter-industry trade in the affected area, and that it is intended to be used for extended periods that can occur from a major nuclear reactor accident, such as the one that occurred at the Fukushima Daiichi site in Japan. Most input-output models do not account for economic adaptation and recovery, and in this regard RDEIM differs from its parent, REAcct, because it allows for a user-definable national recovery period. Implementation of a recovery period was one of several recommendations made by an independent peer review panel to ensure that RDEIM is state-of-practice. For this and several other reasons, RDEIM differs from REAcct.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1974

Application to rotary wings of a simplified aerodynamic lifting surface theory for unsteady compressible flow

A general method of predicting airloads is applied to helicopter rotor blades on a full three-dimensional basis using the general theory developed for a rotor blade at the psi = pi/2 position where flutter is most likely to occur. Calculations of aerodynamic coefficients for use in flutter analysis are made for forward and hovering flight with low inflow. The results are compared with values given by two-dimensional strip theory for a rigid rotor hinged at its root. The comparisons indicate the inadequacies of strip theory for airload prediction. One important conclusion drawn from this study is that the curved wake has a substantial effect on the chordwise load distribution.

Rao, B. M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Error analysis of analytic solutions for self-excited near-symmetric rigid bodies - A numerical study

Analytic error bounds are presented for the solutions of approximate models for self-excited near-symmetric rigid bodies. The error bounds are developed for analytic solutions to Euler's equations of motion. The results are applied to obtain a simplified analytic solution for Eulerian rates and angles. The results of a sample application of the range and error bound expressions for the case of the Galileo spacecraft experiencing transverse torques demonstrate the use of the bounds in analyses of rigid body spin change maneuvers.

Kia, T.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Diagnostic analysis of two-dimensional monthly average ozone balance with Chapman chemistry

Chapman chemistry has been used in a two-dimensional model to simulate ozone balance phenomenology. The similarity between regions of ozone production and loss calculated using Chapman chemistry and those computed using LIMS and SAMS data with a photochemical equilibrium model indicate that such simplified chemistry is useful in studying gross features in stratospheric ozone balance. Net ozone production or loss rates are brought about by departures from the photochemical equilibrium (PCE) condition. If transport drives ozone above its PCE condition, then photochemical loss dominates production. If transport drives ozone below its PCE condition, then photochemical production dominates loss. Gross features of ozone loss/production (L/P) inferred for the real atmosphere from data are also simulated using only eddy diffusion. This indicates that one must be careful in assigning a transport scheme for a two-dimensional model that mimics only behavior of the observed ozone L/P.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Expanded capabilities of the CarMa code in modeling resistive wall mode dynamics with 3-D conductors

In this work, an improved version of the CarMa code is presented, called CarMa-D, for the analysis of resistive wall modes (RWMs) in fusion devices, simultaneously considering the effects of volumetric three-dimensional conducting structures, plasma dynamics, toroidal rotation or drift-kinetic damping. Unlike static CarMa, CarMa-D does not rely on the simplifying assumptions such as neglecting the plasma mass, toroidal rotation and kinetic damping. The new coupling strategy is based on matrix-based Padé rational functions approximation of plasma a response. The arising mathematical model is formally equivalent to the original CarMa model, but with a higher number of degrees of freedom to model the dynamics of the plasma. CarMa-D overcomes the main limitations of the original CarMa, in particular: (i) the massless assumption for the plasma is removed, allowing modeling of global modes growing both on ideal kink time scales and in the typical RWM growth rate regime, with a suitable treatment of the model; (ii) the effects of toroidal plasma flow and drift kinetic damping can be included into the new model, providing a powerful tool to study macroscopic phenomena where both plasma dynamics and 3-D conducting structures play important roles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Event-modeled Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagrams

Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) is a software tool developed at INL for researching the capabilities of dynamic PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). In order to promote the effective use of dynamic PRA by the general community, EMRALD focuses on the following key aspects: Simplifying the modeling process by providing a structure that corresponds to traditional PRA modeling methods Providing a user interface (UI) that makes it easy for the user to model and visualize complex interactions Allowing the user to couple with other analysis applications such as physics based simulations. This includes one-way communication for most applications and two-way loose coupling for customizable applications Providing the sequence and timing of events that lead to the specified outcomes when calculating results Traditional aspects of components with basic events, fault trees, and event trees are all captured in a dynamic framework of state diagrams, which are displayed.

Prescott, SteveR↗
DOE OSTI2023

DEEPEN 3D PFA Favorability Models and 2D Favorability Maps at Newberry Volcano

DEEPEN stands for DE-risking Exploration of geothermal Plays in magmatic ENvironments. Part of the DEEPEN project involved developing and testing a methodology for a 3D play fairway analysis (PFA) for multiple play types (conventional hydrothermal, superhot EGS, and supercritical). This was tested using new and existing geoscientific exploration datasets at Newberry Volcano. This GDR submission includes images, data, and models related to the 3D favorability and uncertainty models and the 2D favorability and uncertainty maps. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology is based on the method proposed by Poux et al. (2020), which uses the Leapfrog Geothermal software with the Edge extension to conduct PFA in 3D. This method uses all available data to build a 3D geodata model which can be broken down into smaller blocks and analyzed with advanced geostatistical methods. Each data set is imported into a 3D model in Leapfrog and divided into smaller blocks. Conditional queries can then be used to assign each block an index value which conditionally ranks each block's favorability, from 0-5 with 5 being most favorable, for each model (e.g., lithologic, seismic, magnetic, structural). The values between 0-5 assigned to each block are referred to as index values. The final step of the process is to combine all the index models to create a favorability index. This involves multiplying each index model by a given weight and then summing the resulting values. The DEEPEN PFA Methodology follows this approach, but split up by the specific geologic components of each play type. These components are defined as follows for each magmatic play type: 1. Conventional hydrothermal plays in magmatic environments: Heat, fluid, and permeability 2. Superhot EGS plays: Heat, thermal insulation, and producibility (the ability to create and sustain fractures suitable for and EGS reservoir) 3. Supercritical plays: Heat, supercritical fluid, pressure seal, and producibility (the proper permeability and pressure conditions to allow production of supercritical fluid) More information on these components and their development can be found in Kolker et al., 2022. For the purposes of subsurface imaging, it is easier to detect a permeable fluid-filled reservoir than it is to detect separate fluid and permeability components. Therefore, in this analysis, we combine fluid and permeability for conventional hydrothermal plays, and supercritical fluid and producibility for supercritical plays. More information on this process is described in the following sections. We also project the 3D favorability volumes onto 2D surfaces for simplified joint interpretation, and we incorporate an uncertainty component. Uncertainty was modeled using the best approach for the dataset in question, for the datasets where we had enough information to do so. Identifying which subsurface parameters are the least resolved can help qualify current PFA results and focus future efforts in data collection. Where possible, the resulting uncertainty models/indices were weighted using the same weights applied to the respective datasets, and summed, following the PFA methodology above, but for uncertainty. There are two different versions of the Leapfrog model and associated favorability models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.1: The second release, with improvements made to the earthquake catalog (included additional identified events, removed duplicate events), to the temperature model (fixed a deep BHT), and to the index models (updated the seismicity-heat source index models for supercritical and EGS, and the resistivity-insulation index models for all three play types). Also uses the jet color map rather than the magma color map for improved interpretability. - v2.1.1: Updated to include v2.0 uncertainty results (see below for uncertainty model versions) There are two different versions of the associated uncertainty models: - v1.0: The first release in June 2023 - v2.0: The se...

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Magnetic Microcalorimeter (MMC) Gamma-Ray Detectors with Ultra-High Energy Resolution. Comprehensive Technology Readiness Assessment

Magnetic Microcalorimeter (MMC) gamma ray detectors have demonstrated very high energy resolution of 38 eV FWHM for gamma ray energies below 100 keV. This is an order or magnitude better than conventional HPGe detector and can remove most line-overlap problems in NDA by gamma spectroscopy below ~130 keV. Unlike superconducting transition edge sensors (TESs), MMCs have a reproducible and almost perfectly linear response, which greatly simplifies adding spectra from different detector pixels and reduces systematic errors in quantitative assays. The instrument is currently at TRL-5 but could advance to TRL-6 by improving the signal processing software and using the system for the quantitative analysis of a safeguards sample provided by e.g. the IAEA. Making MMC detectors commercially viable and used more widely then depends on making the technology more reliable, specifically by increasing the device uniformity and yield, and by developing commercial software. This situation is often only half-jokingly referred to as the “valley of death” and could be addressed though the SBIR program. Our collaborators at STAR Cryoelectronics LLC are well qualified to further advance MMC development, and XIA LLC is well-positioned to develop the data acquisition system and write the software for MMC readout. In addition, the advance to TRL-6 would be desirable to increase the visibility and showcase the value of MMC spectrometers, e.g. by placing one of them into the Safeguards Analytical Laboratory (SAL) at the IAEA, whose NDA experts have recently started to show interest in cryogenic detector technology. As a result of this LCP, we also now have an instrument at LLNL that we will use for various applications of MMCs in nuclear safeguards and science. We are confident that as the number of high-profile results increases, so will the interest in and commercial viability of this technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Magnetic Microcalorimeter (MMC) Gamma-Ray Detectors with Ultra-High Energy Resolution. Comprehensive Technology Readiness Assessment

Magnetic Microcalorimeter (MMC) gamma ray detectors have demonstrated very high energy resolution of 38 eV FWHM for gamma ray energies below 100 keV. This is an order or magnitude better than conventional HPGe detector and can remove most line-overlap problems in NDA by gamma spectroscopy below ~130 keV. Unlike superconducting transition edge sensors (TESs), MMCs have a reproducible and almost perfectly linear response, which greatly simplifies adding spectra from different detector pixels and reduces systematic errors in quantitative assays. The instrument is currently at TRL-5 but could advance to TRL-6 by improving the signal processing software and using the system for the quantitative analysis of a safeguards sample provided by e.g. the IAEA. Making MMC detectors commercially viable and used more widely then depends on making the technology more reliable, specifically by increasing the device uniformity and yield, and by developing commercial software. This situation is often only half-jokingly referred to as the “valley of death” and could be addressed though the SBIR program. Our collaborators at STAR Cryoelectronics LLC are well qualified to further advance MMC development, and XIA LLC is well-positioned to develop the data acquisition system and write the software for MMC readout. In addition, the advance to TRL-6 would be desirable to increase the visibility and showcase the value of MMC spectrometers, e.g. by placing one of them into the Safeguards Analytical Laboratory (SAL) at the IAEA, whose NDA experts have recently started to show interest in cryogenic detector technology. As a result of this LCP, we also now have an instrument at LLNL that we will use for various applications of MMCs in nuclear safeguards and science. We are confident that as the number of high-profile results increases, so will the interest in and commercial viability of this technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1977

Wind models for flight simulator certification of landing and approach guidance and control systems

The definition of a model suitable for certification was the main objective of this report. The model was designed to simplify and reduce the wind model parameters to enable evaluation of a large number of aircraft and control system design parameters. Analytical descriptions of wind phenomena were presented. For those parameters defying analytic description, probabilistic descriptions were sought. A brief analysis of the effects of wind on aircraft motion was conducted. The axes transformations required between wind and turbulence components in their inherent axis system and in the airplane's axis system were shown. Techniques of providing a random process on computers for the representation of turbulence were presented. A simulation model was presented that combines all the foregoing components.

Schaeffer, D. R.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Breadboard stellar tracker system test report

BASD has, in the past, developed several unique position tracking algorithms for charge transfer device (CTD) sensors. These algorithms provide an interpixel transfer function with the following characteristics: (1) high linearity; (2) simplified track logic; (3) high gain; and (4) high noise rejection. A previous test program using the GE charge injection device (CID) showed that accuracy for BASD's breadboard was limited to approximately 2% of a pixel (1 sigma) whereas analysis and simulation indicated the limit should be less than 0.5% of a pixel, assuming the limit to be detector response and dark current noise. The test program was conducted under NASA contract No. NAS8-34263. The test approach for that program did not provide sufficient data to identify the sources of error and left open the amount of contribution from parameters such as image distribution, geometric distortion and system alignment errors.

Kollodge, J. C.↗