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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

Schlueter, R. A.↗

Discriminability of Prediction Artifacts in a Time Delayed Virtual Environment

Overall latency remains an impediment to perceived image stability and consequently to human performance in virtual environment (VE) systems. Predictive compensators have been proposed as a means to mitigate these shortcomings, but they introduce rendering errors because of induced motion overshoot and heightened noise. Discriminability of these compensator artifacts was investigated by a protocol in which head tracked image stability for 35 ms baseline VE system latency was compared against artificially added (16.7 to 100 ms) latency compensated by a previously studied Kalman Filter (K-F) predictor. A control study in which uncompensated 16.7 to 100 ms latencies were compared against the baseline was also performed. Results from 10 subjects in the main study and 8 in the control group indicate that predictive compensation artifacts are less discernible than the disruptions of uncompensated time delay for the shorter but not the longer added latencies. We propose that noise magnification and overshoot are contributory cues to the presence of predictive compensation.

Adelstein, Bernard D.↗

The Navstar GPS master control station's Kalman filter experience

The Navstar Global Positioning System (GPS) is a highly accurate space based navigation system providing all weather, 24 hour a day service to both military and civilian users. The system provides a Gaussian position solution with four satellites, each providing its ephemeris and clock offset with respect to GPS time. The GPS Master Clock Station (MCS) is charged with tracking each Navstar spacecraft and precisely defining the ephemeris and clock parameters for upload into the vehicle's navigation message. Briefly described here are the Navstar system and the Kalman filter estimation process used by MCS to determine, predict, and ensure quality control for each of the satellite's ephemeris and clock states. Routine performance is shown. Kalman filter reaction and response is discussed for anomalous clock behavior and trajectory perturbations. Particular attention is given to MCS efforts to improve orbital adjust modeling. The satellite out of service time due to orbital maneuvering has been reduced in the past year from four days to under twelve hours. The planning, reference trajectory model, and Kalman filter management improvements are explained.

Scardera, Michael P.↗

Looking around: 35 years of oculomotor modeling

Eye movements have attracted an unusually large number of researchers from many disparate fields, especially over the past 35 years. The lure of this system stemmed from its apparent simplicity of description, measurement, and analysis, as well as the promise of providing a "window in the mind." Investigators in areas ranging from biological control systems and neurological diagnosis to applications in advertising and flight simulation expected eye movements to provide clear indicators of what the sensory-motor system was accomplishing and what the brain found to be of interest. The parallels between compensatory eye movements and perception of spatial orientation have been a subject for active study in visual-vestibular interaction, where substantial knowledge has accumulated through experiments largely guided by the challenge of proving or disproving model predictions. Even though oculomotor control has arguably benefited more from systems theory than any other branch of motor control, many of the original goals remain largely unfulfilled. This paper considers some of the promising potential benefits of eye movement research and compares accomplishments with anticipated results. Four topics are considered in greater detail: (i) the definition of oculomotor system input and output, (ii) optimization of the eye movement system, (iii) the relationship between compensatory eye movements and spatial orientation through the "internal model," and (iv) the significance of eye movements as measured in (outer) space.

Flight Experiment↗

Exceptional enhancement of mechanical properties in high-entropy alloys via thermodynamically guided local chemical ordering

Understanding the local chemical ordering propensity in random solid solutions, and tailoring its strength, can guide the design and discovery of complex, paradigm-shifting multicomponent alloys. First, we present a simple thermodynamic framework, based solely on binary enthalpies of mixing, to select optimal alloying elements to control the nature and extent of chemical ordering in high-entropy alloys (HEAs). Next, we couple high-resolution electron microscopy, atom probe tomography, hybrid Monte-Carlo, special quasirandom structures, and density functional theory calculations to demonstrate how controlled additions of Al and Ti and subsequent annealing drive chemical ordering in nearly random equiatomic face-centered cubic CoFeNi solid solution. We establish that short-range ordered domains, the precursors of long-range ordered precipitates, inform mechanical properties. Specifically, a progressively increasing local order boosts the tensile yield strengths of the parent CoFeNi alloy by a factor of four while also substantially improving ductility, which breaks the so-called strength–ductility paradox. Finally, we validate the generality of our approach by predicting and demonstrating that controlled additions of Al, which has large negative enthalpies of mixing with the constituent elements of another nearly random body-centered cubic refractory NbTaTi HEA, also introduces chemical ordering and enhances mechanical properties.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Investigation of aerodynamic design issues with regions of separated flow

Existing aerodynamic design methods have generally concentrated on the optimization of airfoil or wing shapes to produce a minimum drag while satisfying some basic constraints such as lift, pitching moment, or thickness. Since the minimization of drag almost always precludes the existence of separated flow, the evaluation and validation of these design methods for their robustness and accuracy when separated flow is present has not been aggressively pursued. However, two new applications for these design tools may be expected to include separated flow and the issues of aerodynamic design with this feature must be addressed. The first application of the aerodynamic design tools is the design of airfoils or wings to provide an optimal performance over a wide range of flight conditions (multipoint design). While the definition of 'optimal performance' in the multipoint setting is currently being hashed out, it is recognized that given a wide range of flight conditions, it will not be possible to ensure a minimum drag constraint at all conditions, and in fact some amount of separated flow (presumably small) may have to be allowed at the more demanding flight conditions. Thus a multipoint design method must be tolerant of the existence of separated flow and may include some controls upon its extent. The second application is in the design of wings with extended high speed buffet boundaries of their flight envelopes. Buffet occurs on a wing when regions of flow separation have grown to the extent that their time varying pressures induce possible destructive effects upon the wing structure or adversely effect either the aircraft controllability or passenger comfort. A conservative approach to the expansion of the buffet flight boundary is to simply expand the flight envelope of nonseparated flow under the assumption that buffet will also thus be alleviated. However, having the ability to design a wing with separated flow and thus to control the location, extent and severity of the separated flow regions may allow aircraft manufacturers to gain an advantage in the early design stages of an aircraft, when configuration changes are relatively inexpensive to make. The goal of the summer research at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) was twofold: first, to investigate a particular airfoil design problem observed under conditions of strong shock induced flow separation on the upper surface of an airfoil at transonic conditions; and second, to suggest and investigate design methodologies for the prediction (or detection) and control of flow separation. The context of both investigations was to use an existing two dimensional Navier-Stokes flow solver and the constrained direct/iterative surface curvature (CDISC) design algorithm developed at LaRC. As a lead in to the primary task, it was necessary to gain a familiarity with both the design method and the computational analysis and to perform the FORTRAN coding needed to couple them together.

Gally, Tom↗

On-orbit experience with the HEAO attitude control subsystem

The first satellite (HEAO-1) in the High Energy Astronomy Observatory Program series was launched successfully on Aug. 12, 1977. To date it has completed over nine months of orbital operation in a science data gathering mode. During this period all attitude control modes have been exercised and all primary mission objectives have been achieved. This paper highlights the characteristics of the attitude control subsystem design and compares the predicted performance with the actual flight operations experience. Environmental disturbance modeling, component hardware/software characteristics, and overall attitude control performance are reviewed and are found to compare very well with the prelaunch analytical predictions. Brief comments are also included regarding the operations aspects of the attitude control subsystem. The experience in this regard demonstrates the effectiveness of the design flexibility afforded by the presence of a general purpose digital processor in the subsystem flight hardware implementation.

Hoffman, D. P.↗

Navigation Challenges in the MAVEN Science Phase

The MAVEN spacecraft will explore Mars' upper atmosphere. The primary science phase will last one (Earth) year, during which the spacecraft will be in an elliptical 4.5 hour orbit at an inclination of 75 degrees. The 75 degree inclination results in the orbit periapsis oscillating between +/-75 degrees latitude, thus naturally covering most Mars latitudes during the primary mission. The orbit will be controlled via maneuvers so that the maximum orbit density remains in a density corridor. This results in the MAVEN science phase being in a light aerobraking type orbit of around 160 km for an extended period. In addition, the mission has significantly less tracking data than aerobraking phases of other missions, and even less than other NASA Mars orbiter primary phases. This results in significant challenges for the Navigation Team. They can be summarized as a difficulty in determining the current density profile, which maps into degraded trajectory predictions and less accurate control over the spacecraft location in the targeted density corridor via maneuvers. This paper describes these challenges and the Navigation Team's plans to meet them.

MAVEN↗

Aeroelastic loads and stability investigation of a full-scale hingeless rotor

An analytical investigation was conducted to study the influence of various parameters on predicting the aeroelastic loads and stability of a full-scale hingeless rotor in hover and forward flight. The CAMRAD/JA (Comprehensive Analytical Model of Rotorcraft Aerodynamics and Dynamics, Johnson Aeronautics) analysis code is used to obtain the analytical predictions. Data are presented for rotor blade bending and torsional moments as well as inplane damping data obtained for rotor operation in hover at a constant rotor rotational speed of 425 rpm and thrust coefficients between 0.0 and 0.12. Experimental data are presented from a test in the wind tunnel. Validation of the rotor system structural model with experimental rotor blade loads data shows excellent correlation with analytical results. Using this analysis, the influence of different aerodynamic inflow models, the number of generalized blade and body degrees of freedom, and the control-system stiffness at predicted stability levels are shown. Forward flight predictions of the BO-105 rotor system for 1-G thrust conditions at advance ratios of 0.0 to 0.35 are presented. The influence of different aerodynamic inflow models, dynamic inflow models and shaft angle variations on predicted stability levels are shown as a function of advance ratio.

Peterson, Randall L.↗

Hypersonic Aerodynamic Characteristics of a Proposed Single-Stage-To-Orbit Vehicle

The hypersonic aerodynamic characteristics of a winged body concept representing a candidate single- stage-to-orbit vehicle which features wing tip fin controllers and elevon/body flap control surfa'Fs are predicted at points along a nominal trajectory for Mach numbers from 5 to 27 and angles of attack from 19 to 32 degrees. Predictions are derived from surface properties based on flow solvers for inviscid and viscous, laminar flows acting as a perfect gas, as a gas in chemical equilibrium and as a gas in chemical non- equilibrium. At a Mach number of 22, the lateral aerodynamic characteristics of the vehicle are determined based on an inviscid analysis at side slip angles of 2 and 4 degrees and 32 degrees angle of attack; a viscous analysis was carried out to determine the effect of gas chemistry model on surface pressure and to determine the incremental aerodynamics for control surface deflections. The results show that the longitudinal pitch characteristics of the baseline configuration, i.e., zero control surface deflections, are significantly altered by real gas chemistry at angles of attack greater than 30 degrees and Mach numbers greater than 9; and, that aerodynamics derived from inviscid solutions are of sufficient accuracy for preliminary analysis. Also, it is shown that a Mach number of 22, the choice of gas chemistry model has a large impact on surface pressure levels at highly localized regions on the vehicle and that the vehicle can be trimmed at control surface deflections less than 11 degrees.

Weilmuenster, K. James↗

Dispersal and fire limit Arctic shrub expansion

Abstract Arctic shrub expansion alters carbon budgets, albedo, and warming rates in high latitudes but remains challenging to predict due to unclear underlying controls. Observational studies and models typically use relationships between observed shrub presence and current environmental suitability (bioclimate and topography) to predict shrub expansion, while omitting shrub demographic processes and non-stationary response to changing climate. Here, we use high-resolution satellite imagery across Alaska and western Canada to show that observed shrub expansion has not been controlled by environmental suitability during 1984–2014, but can only be explained by considering seed dispersal and fire. These findings provide the impetus for better observations of recruitment and for incorporating currently underrepresented processes of seed dispersal and fire in land models to project shrub expansion and climate feedbacks. Integrating these dynamic processes with projected fire extent and climate, we estimate shrubs will expand into 25% of the non-shrub tundra by 2100, in contrast to 39% predicted based on increasing environmental suitability alone. Thus, using environmental suitability alone likely overestimates and misrepresents shrub expansion pattern and its associated carbon sink.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observational benchmarks inform representation of soil organic carbon dynamics in land surface models

Abstract. Representing soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in Earth system models (ESMs) is a key source of uncertainty in predicting carbon–climate feedbacks. Machine learning models can help identify dominant environmental controllers and establish their functional relationships with SOC stocks. The resulting knowledge can be integrated into ESMs to reduce uncertainty and improve predictions of SOC dynamics over space and time. In this study, we used a large number of SOC field observations (n=54 000), geospatial datasets of environmental factors (n=46), and two machine learning approaches (namely random forest, RF, and generalized additive modeling, GAM) to (1) identify dominant environmental controllers of global and biome-specific SOC stocks, (2) derive functional relationships between environmental controllers and SOC stocks, and (3) compare the identified environmental controllers and predictive relationships with those in models used in Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Our results showed that the diurnal temperature, drought index, cation exchange capacity, and precipitation were important observed environmental predictors of global SOC stocks. While the RF model identified 14 environmental factors that describe climatic, vegetation, and edaphic conditions as important predictors of global SOC stocks (R2=0.61, RMSE = 0.46 kg m−2), current ESMs oversimplify the relationships between environmental factors and SOC, with precipitation, temperature, and net primary productivity explaining > 96 % of the variability in ESM-modeled SOC stocks. Further, our study revealed notable disparities among the functional relationships between environmental factors and SOC stocks simulated by ESMs compared with observed relationships. To improve SOC representations in ESMs, it is imperative to incorporate additional environmental controls, such as the cation exchange capacity, and refine the functional relationships to align more closely with observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Case Study: Influences of Uncertainties and Traffic Scenario Difficulties in a Human-in-the-Loop Simulation

This paper presents a case study of how factors such as wind prediction errors and metering delays can influence controller performance and workload in Human-In-The-Loop simulations. Retired air traffic controllers worked two arrival sectors adjacent to the terminal area. The main tasks were to provide safe air traffic operations and deliver the aircraft to the metering fix within +/- 25 seconds of the scheduled arrival time with the help of provided decision support tools. Analyses explore the potential impact of metering delays and system uncertainties on controller workload and performance. The results suggest that trajectory prediction uncertainties impact safety performance, while metering fix accuracy and workload appear subject to the scenario difficulty.

air traffic control↗

A Simple Lagrangian Parcel Model for the Initiation of Summer-time Mesoscale Convective Systems over the Central United States

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) account for more than 50% of summertime precipitation over the central United States and have a significant impact on local weather and hydrologic cycle. It is hypothesized that the inadequate treatment of MCSs is responsible for the long-standing warm and dry bias over the central United States in coarse-resolution general circulation model (GCM) simulations. In particular, a better understanding of MCS initiation is still lacking. Here a single-column Lagrangian parcel model is first developed to simulate the basic features of a rising parcel. This simple model demonstrates the collective effects of boundary layer moistening and dynamical lifting in triggering convective initiation and reproduces successfully its early afternoon peak with surface equivalent potential temperature as a controlling factor. It also predicts that convection is harder to trigger in the future climate under global warming, consistent with the results from convection-permitting regional climate simulations. Then, a multicolumn model that includes an array of single-column models aligned in the east–west direction and incorporates idealized cold pool interaction mechanisms is developed. The multicolumn model captures readily the cold pool–induced upscale growth feature in MCS genesis from initially scattered convection that is organized into a mesoscale cluster in a few hours. It also highlights the crucial role of lifting effects due to cold pool collision and spreading, subsidence effect, and gust front propagation speed in controlling the final size of mesoscale clusters and cold pool regions. This simple model should be useful for understanding fundamental mechanisms of MCS initiation and providing guidance for improving MCS simulations in GCMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ares I-X Flight Evaluation Tasks in Support of Ares I Development

NASA s Constellation Program successfully launched the Ares I-X Flight Test Vehicle on October 28, 2009. The Ares I-X flight was a development flight test that offered a unique opportunity for early engineering data to impact the design and development of the Ares I crew launch vehicle. As the primary customer for flight data from the Ares I-X mission, the Ares Projects Office established a set of 33 flight evaluation tasks to correlate fight results with prospective design assumptions and models. Included within these tasks were direct comparisons of flight data with pre-flight predictions and post-flight assessments utilizing models and modeling techniques being applied to design and develop Ares I. A discussion of the similarities and differences in those comparisons and the need for discipline-level model updates based upon those comparisons form the substance of this paper. The benefits of development flight testing were made evident by implementing these tasks that used Ares I-X data to partially validate tools and methodologies in technical disciplines that will ultimately influence the design and development of Ares I and future launch vehicles. The areas in which partial validation from the flight test was most significant included flight control system algorithms to predict liftoff clearance, ascent, and stage separation; structural models from rollout to separation; thermal models that have been updated based on these data; pyroshock attenuation; and the ability to predict complex flow fields during time-varying conditions including plume interactions.

Huebner, Lawrence D.↗

Nonlinear Development and Secondary Instability of Traveling Crossflow Vortices

Transition research under NASA's Aeronautical Sciences Project seeks to develop a validated set of variable fidelity prediction tools with known strengths and limitations, so as to enable "sufficiently" accurate transition prediction and practical transition control for future vehicle concepts. This paper builds upon prior effort targeting the laminar breakdown mechanisms associated with stationary crossflow instability over a swept-wing configuration relevant to subsonic aircraft with laminar flow technology. Specifically, transition via secondary instability of traveling crossflow modes is investigated as an alternate scenario for transition. Results show that, for the parameter range investigated herein, secondary instability of traveling crossflow modes becomes insignificant in relation to the secondary instability of the stationary modes when the relative initial amplitudes of the traveling crossflow instability are lower than those of the stationary modes by approximately two orders of magnitudes or more. Linear growth predictions based on the secondary instability theory are found to agree well with those based on PSE and DNS, with the most significant discrepancies being limited to spatial regions of relatively weak secondary growth, i.e., regions where the primary disturbance amplitudes are smaller in comparison to its peak amplitude. Nonlinear effects on secondary instability evolution is also investigated and found to be initially stabilizing, prior to breakdown.

Li, Fei↗

Experimental investigation of advanced turbine control strategies and load-mitigation measures with a model-scale floating offshore wind turbine system

To advance the control co-design of offshore wind energy systems, the authors perform basin-scale experiments with a fully instrumented and actuated floating offshore wind turbine model. The model consists of a 1:70 scale performance-matched model of the International Energy Agency Wind Technology Collaboration Programme 15-MW reference turbine atop the VolturnUS-S semisubmersible platform. The Reference OpenSource Controller provides real-time blade pitch and generator torque control. Here we aim to develop an open data set for the validation of numerical models in predicting the influence of turbine control and load-mitigation measures. For this purpose, we measure the effects of advanced turbine control features, including peak shaving and floating feedback as well as hull-based control using tuned mass dampers on the system. Overall, the results demonstrate measurable and consistent influences from the control and load-mitigation measures, thus confirming the usefulness as a validation data set. Peak shaving attenuates the response to wind turbulence at near-rated wind speed. Floating feedback reduces the load and platform pitch motion associated with the negative damping induced by blade pitch control. The tuned mass dampers also attenuate the system response near the targeted frequencies under suitable conditions. We also identify detrimental side effects of each load-mitigation measure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Isothermal life prediction of composite lamina using a damage mechanics approach

A method for predicting isothermal plastic fatigue life of a composite lamina is presented in which both fibers and matrix are isotropic materials. In general, the fatigue resistances of the matrix, fibers, and interfacial material must be known in order to predict composite fatigue life. Composite fatigue life is predicted using only the matrix fatigue resistance due to inelasticity micromechanisms. The effect of the fiber orientation on loading direction is accounted for while predicting composite life. The application is currently limited to isothermal cases where the internal thermal stresses that might arise from thermal strain mismatch between fibers and matrix are negligible. The theory is formulated to predict the fatigue life of a composite lamina under either load or strain control. It is applied currently to predict the life of tungsten-copper composite lamina at 260 C under tension-tension load control. The calculated life of the lamina is in good agreement with available composite low cycle fatigue data.

Abuelfoutouh, Nader M.↗