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At least 1,405 records · Page 78
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2000

Predictive Multiple Model Switching Control with the Self-Organizing Map

A predictive, multiple model control strategy is developed by extension of self-organizing map (SOM) local dynamic modeling of nonlinear autonomous systems to a control framework. Multiple SOMs collectively model the global response of a nonautonomous system to a finite set of representative prototype controls. Each SOM provides a codebook representation of the dynamics corresponding to a prototype control. Different dynamic regimes are organized into topological neighborhoods where the adjacent entries in the codebook represent the global minimization of a similarity metric. The SOM is additionally employed to identify the local dynamical regime, and consequently implements a switching scheme that selects the best available model for the applied control. SOM based linear models are used to predict the response to a larger family of control sequences which are clustered on the representative prototypes. The control sequence which corresponds to the prediction that best satisfies the requirements on the system output is applied as the external driving signal.

Motter, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Aerothermal Heating Predictions for Mars Microprobe

A combination of computational predictions and experimental measurements of the aerothermal heating expected on the two Mars Microprobes during their entry to Mars are presented. The maximum, non-ablating, heating rate at the vehicle's stagnation point (at alpha = 0 degrees) is predicted for an undershoot trajectory to be 194 Watts per square centimeters with associated stagnation point pressure of 0.064 atm. Maximum stagnation point pressure occurs later during the undershoot trajectory and is 0.094 atm. From computations at seven overshoot-trajectory points, the maximum heat load expected at the stagnation point is near 8800 Joules per square centimeter. Heat rates and heat loads on the vehicle's afterbody are much lower than the forebody. At zero degree angle-of-attack, heating over much of the hemi-spherical afterbody is predicted to be less than 2 percent of the stagnation point value. Good qualitative agreement is demonstrated for forebody and afterbody heating between CFD calculations at Mars entry conditions and experimental thermographic phosphor measurements from the Langley 20-Inch Mach 6 Air Tunnel. A novel approach which incorporates six degree-of-freedom trajectory simulations to perform a statistical estimate of the effect of angle-of-attack, and other off-nominal conditions, on heating is included.

Mitcheltree, R. A.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Effects of target fragmentation on evaluation of LET spectra from space radiation in low-earth orbit (LEO) environment: impact on SEU predictions

Recent improvements in the radiation transport code HZETRN/BRYNTRN and galactic cosmic ray environmental model have provided an opportunity to investigate the effects of target fragmentation on estimates of single event upset (SEU) rates for spacecraft memory devices. Since target fragments are mostly of very low energy, an SEU prediction model has been derived in terms of particle energy rather than linear energy transfer (LET) to account for nonlinear relationship between range and energy. Predictions are made for SEU rates observed on two Shuttle flights, each at low and high inclination orbit. Corrections due to track structure effects are made for both high energy ions with track structure larger than device sensitive volume and for low energy ions with dense track where charge recombination is important. Results indicate contributions from target fragments are relatively important at large shield depths (or any thick structure material) and at low inclination orbit. Consequently, a more consistent set of predictions for upset rates observed in these two flights is reached when compared to an earlier analysis with CREME model. It is also observed that the errors produced by assuming linear relationship in range and energy in the earlier analysis have fortuitously canceled out the errors for not considering target fragmentation and track structure effects.

STS-51 Shuttle Project↗
NASA NTRS1998

Rarefied Aerothermodynamic Predictions for Mars Global Surveyor

Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) successfully completed its first phase of aerobraking in early 1998 and is the rst planetary mission to use aerobraking as a primary means of customizing its orbit to achieve its mission objectives. The aerobraking requirements together with post-launch anomalies presented a unique challenge to provide accurate predictions of the aerothermodynamic environment of the spacecraft in the rare transitional flow regime. Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) and free molecular techniques were used to provide heating and aerodynamic predictions and to investigate a variety of rarefied flow phenomena across the regime; MGS is the first major planetary mission in which rare flow predictions have played such a critical role all the way through design, mission planning, and operational phases. This paper summarizes these studies with emphasis on transitional-flow and gas-surface interaction phenomena.

Wilmoth, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Pilot Performance With Predictive System Status Information

Research has shown a strong pilot preference for predictive information of aircraft system status in the flight deck. However, the benefits of predictive information have not been quantitatively demonstrated. The study described here attempted to identify and quantify these benefits if they existed. In this simulator experiment, three types of predictive information (none, whether a parameter was changing abnormally, and the time for a parameter to reach an alert range) and four initial times to an alert (1 minute, 5 minutes, 15 minutes, and ETA+ 45 minutes) were found to affect when subjects accomplished certain actions, such as accessing pertinent checklists, declaring emergencies, diverting, and calling the flight attendant and dispatch.

Trujillo, Anna C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Effects of Target Fragmentation on Evaluation of LET Spectra From Space Radiation in Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) Environment: Impact on SEU Predictions

Recent improvements in the radiation transport code HZETRN/BRYNTRN and galactic cosmic ray environmental model have provided an opportunity to investigate the effects of target fragmentation on estimates of single event upset (SEU) rates for spacecraft memory devices. Since target fragments are mostly of very low energy, an SEU prediction model has been derived in terms of particle energy rather than linear energy transfer (LET) to account for nonlinear relationship between range and energy. Predictions are made for SEU rates observed on two Shuttle flights, each at low and high inclination orbit. Corrections due to track structure effects are made for both high energy ions with track structure larger than device sensitive volume and for low energy ions with dense track where charge recombination is important. Results indicate contributions from target fragments are relatively important at large shield depths (or any thick structure material) and at low inclination orbit. Consequently, a more consistent set of predictions for upset rates observed in these two flights is reached when compared to an earlier analysis with CREME model. It is also observed that the errors produced by assuming linear relationship in range and energy in the earlier analysis have fortuitously canceled out the errors for not considering target fragmentation and track structure effects.

Shinn, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Predictions of secondary neutrons and their importance to radiation effects inside the International Space Station

As part of a study funded by NASA MSFC to assess thecontribution of secondary particles in producing radiation damage to optoelectronics devices located on the International Space Station (IS), Monte Carlo calculations have been made to predict secondary spectra vs. shielding inside ISS modules and in electronics boxes attached on the truss (Armstrong and Colborn, 1998). The calculations take into account secondary neutron, proton, and charged pion production from the ambient galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) proton, trapped proton, and neutron albedo environments. Comparisons of the predicted neutron spectra with measurments made on the Mir space station and other spacecraft have also been made (Armstrong and Colborn, 1998). In this paper, some initial results from folding the predicted neutron spectrum inside ISS modules from Armstrong and Colborn (1998) with several types of radiation effects response functions related to electronics damage and astronaut-dose are given. These results provide an estimate of the practical importance of neutrons compared to protons in assessing radiation effects for the ISS. Also, the important neutron energy ranges for producing these effects have been estimated, which provides guidance for onboard neutron measurement requirements.

Neutrons↗
NASA NTRS2004

Predicting Hall Thruster Operational Lifetime

A simple analytic model predicted Hall thruster channel erosion based on thruster geometry, operating conditions, and magnetic field configuration. This model relied on a one-dimensional representation of the plasma with a fixed ionization fraction and variable ion energies based on the magnetic field distribution. Sputtering was modeled as the result of elastic scattering of ions by neutrals within the channel. Not all scattered ions and neutrals were assumed to reach the channel walls as a result of additional subsequent scattering events. Incorporating this phenomenon resulted in a greater predicted decrease in erosion rate with time than predicted based only on geometric effects. Results from this model were compared to SPT 100 experimental erosion data.

Manzella, David↗
NASA NTRS2004

Electromagnetic Propagation Prediction Inside Aircraft Cabins

Electromagnetic propagation models for signal strength prediction within aircraft cabins are essential for evaluating and designing a wireless communication system to be implemented onboard aircraft. A model was developed using Wireless Valley's SitePlanner; which is commercial grade software intended for predictions within office buildings. The performance of the model was evaluated through a comparison with test data measurements taken on several aircraft. The comparison concluded that the model can accurately predict power propagation within the cabin. This model can enhance researchers understanding of power propagation within aircraft cabins and will aid in future research.

Hankins, Genevieve↗
NASA NTRS2003

Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS and CMC's

This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for ceramic matrix composites and MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. For CMC's this includes a brief literature survey regarding lifing methodologies. Also of interest for MEMS is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in thin film (bulge test) specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. A main objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. A second set of objectives is to determine the applicability/suitability of the CARES/Life methodology for CMC analysis, what changes would be needed to the methodology and software, and if feasible, run a demonstration problem. Also important is an evaluation of CARES/Life coupled to the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) and the potential of coupling transient reliability analysis to the ANSYS PDS.

Jadaan, Osama↗
NASA NTRS1987

The Uses and Abuses of the Acoustic Analogy in Helicopter Rotor Noise Prediction

This paper is theoretical in nature and addresses applications of the acoustic analogy in helicopter rotor noise prediction. It is argued that in many instances the acoustic analogy has not been used with care in rotor noise studies. By this it is meant that approximate or inappropriate formulations have been used. By considering various mechanisms of noise generation, such abuses are identified and the remedy is suggested. The mechanisms discussed are thickness, loading, quadrupole, and blade-vortex interaction noise. The quadrupole term of the Ffowcs Williams-Hawkings equation is written in a new form which separates the contributions of regions of high gradients such as shock surfaces. It is shown by order of magnitude studies that such regions are capable of producing noise with the same directivity as the thickness noise. The inclusion of this part of quadrupole sources in current acoustic codes is quite practical. Some of the difficulties with the use of loading noise formulations of the first author in predictions of blade-vortex interaction noise are discussed. It appears that there is a need for development of new theoretical results based on the acoustic analogy in this area. Because of the impulsive character of the blade surface pressure, a time scale of integration different from that used in loading and thickness computations must he used in a computer code for prediction of blade-vortex interaction noise.

Farassat, F.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Discrete Spring Model for Predicting Delamination Growth in Z-Fiber Reinforced DCB Specimens

Beam theory analysis was applied to predict delamination growth in Double Cantilever Beam (DCB) specimens reinforced in the thickness direction with pultruded pins, known as Z-fibers. The specimen arms were modeled as cantilever beams supported by discrete springs, which were included to represent the pins. A bi-linear, irreversible damage law was used to represent Z-fiber damage, the parameters of which were obtained from previous experiments. Closed-form solutions were developed for specimen compliance and displacements corresponding to Z-fiber row locations. A solution strategy was formulated to predict delamination growth, in which the parent laminate mode I critical strain energy release rate was used as the criterion for delamination growth. The solution procedure was coded into FORTRAN 90, giving a dedicated software tool for performing the delamination prediction. Comparison of analysis results with previous analysis and experiment showed good agreement, yielding an initial verification for the analytical procedure.

Ratcliffe, James G.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Prediction of human gait parameters from temporal measures of foot-ground contact

Investigation of the influence of human physical activity on bone functional adaptation requires long-term histories of gait-related ground reaction force (GRF). Towards a simpler portable GRF measurement, we hypothesized that: 1) the reciprocal of foot-ground contact time (1/tc); or 2) the reciprocal of stride-period-normalized contact time (T/tc) predict peak vertical and horizontal GRF, loading rates, and horizontal speed during gait. GRF data were collected from 24 subjects while they walked and ran at a variety of speeds. Linear regression and ANCOVA determined the dependence of gait parameters on 1/tc and T/tc, and prediction SE. All parameters were significantly correlated to 1/tc and T/tc. The closest pooled relationship existed between peak running vertical GRF and T/tc (r2 = 0.896; SE = 3.6%) and improved with subject-specific regression (r2 = 0.970; SE = 2.2%). We conclude that temporal measures can predict force parameters of gait and may represent an alternative to direct GRF measurements for determining daily histories of habitual lower limb loading quantities necessary to quantify a bone remodeling stimulus.

NASA Center ARC↗
NASA NTRS1996

Predictions of malaria vector distribution in Belize based on multispectral satellite data

Use of multispectral satellite data to predict arthropod-borne disease trouble spots is dependent on clear understandings of environmental factors that determine the presence of disease vectors. A blind test of remote sensing-based predictions for the spatial distribution of a malaria vector, Anopheles pseudopunctipennis, was conducted as a follow-up to two years of studies on vector-environmental relationships in Belize. Four of eight sites that were predicted to be high probability locations for presence of An. pseudopunctipennis were positive and all low probability sites (0 of 12) were negative. The absence of An. pseudopunctipennis at four high probability locations probably reflects the low densities that seem to characterize field populations of this species, i.e., the population densities were below the threshold of our sampling effort. Another important malaria vector, An. darlingi, was also present at all high probability sites and absent at all low probability sites. Anopheles darlingi, like An. pseudopunctipennis, is a riverine species. Prior to these collections at ecologically defined locations, this species was last detected in Belize in 1946.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2004

Development in Source Modeling and Sound Propagation for Jet Noise Predictions

The purpose of the research carried out under this cooperative agreement was to develop tools that could be used to improve upon the current state of the art in the prediction of noise emitted by turbulent exhaust jets. Both the source modeling and sound propagation aspects of the prediction of jet noise by acoustic analogy were examined with a view toward the development of methods which yield improved predictions over a wider range of operating conditions.

Leib, Steward↗
NASA NTRS2005

Boundary-Layer Receptivity and Integrated Transition Prediction

The adjoint parabold stability equations (PSE) formulation is used to calculate the boundary layer receptivity to localized surface roughness and suction for compressible boundary layers. Receptivity efficiency functions predicted by the adjoint PSE approach agree well with results based on other nonparallel methods including linearized Navier-Stokes equations for both Tollmien-Schlichting waves and crossflow instability in swept wing boundary layers. The receptivity efficiency function can be regarded as the Green's function to the disturbance amplitude evolution in a nonparallel (growing) boundary layer. Given the Fourier transformed geometry factor distribution along the chordwise direction, the linear disturbance amplitude evolution for a finite size, distributed nonuniformity can be computed by evaluating the integral effects of both disturbance generation and linear amplification. The synergistic approach via the linear adjoint PSE for receptivity and nonlinear PSE for disturbance evolution downstream of the leading edge forms the basis for an integrated transition prediction tool. Eventually, such physics-based, high fidelity prediction methods could simulate the transition process from the disturbance generation through the nonlinear breakdown in a holistic manner.

Chang, Chau-Lyan↗
NASA NTRS2005

Numerical Prediction of Chevron Nozzle Noise Reduction using Wind-MGBK Methodology

Numerical predictions for single-stream chevron nozzle flow performance and farfield noise production are presented. Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) solutions, produced via the WIND flow solver, are provided as input to the MGBK code for prediction of farfield noise distributions. This methodology is applied to a set of sensitivity cases involving varying degrees of chevron inward bend angle relative to the core flow, for both cold and hot exhaust conditions. The sensitivity study results illustrate the effect of increased chevron bend angle and exhaust temperature on enhancement of fine-scale mixing, initiation of core breakdown, nozzle performance, and noise reduction. Direct comparisons with experimental data, including stagnation pressure and temperature rake data, PIV turbulent kinetic energy fields, and 90 degree observer farfield microphone data are provided. Although some deficiencies in the numerical predictions are evident, the correct farfield noise spectra trends are captured by the WIND-MGBK method, including the noise reduction benefit of chevrons. Implications of these results to future chevron design efforts are addressed.

Engblom, W.A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Case Study of the Impact of AIRS Temperature Retrievals on Numerical Weather Prediction

Large errors in numerical weather prediction are often associated with explosive cyclogenesis. Most studes focus on the under-forecasting error, i.e. cases of rapidly developing cyclones which are poorly predicted in numerical models. However, the over-forecasting error (i.e., to predict an explosively developing cyclone which does not occur in reality) is a very common error that severely impacts the forecasting skill of all models and may also present economic costs if associated with operational forecasting. Unnecessary precautions taken by marine activities can result in severe economic loss. Moreover, frequent occurrence of over-forecasting can undermine the reliance on operational weather forecasting. Therefore, it is important to understand and reduce the prdctions of extreme weather associated with explosive cyclones which do not actually develop. In this study we choose a very prominent case of over-forecasting error in the northwestern Pacific. A 960 hPa cyclone develops in less than 24 hour in the 5-day forecast, with a deepening rate of about 30 hPa in one day. The cyclone is not versed in the analyses and is thus a case of severe over-forecasting. By assimilating AIRS data, the error is largely eliminated. By following the propagation of the anomaly that generates the spurious cyclone, it is found that a small mid-tropospheric geopotential height negative anomaly over the northern part of the Indian subcontinent in the initial conditions, propagates westward, is amplified by orography, and generates a very intense jet streak in the subtropical jet stream, with consequent explosive cyclogenesis over the Pacific. The AIRS assimilation eliminates this anomaly that may have been caused by erroneous upper-air data, and represents the jet stream more correctly. The energy associated with the jet is distributed over a much broader area and as a consequence a multiple, but much more moderate cyclogenesis is observed.

Reale, O.↗