Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “parameter sampling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,405 records · Page 78
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

An evaluation of tri-valent oxide (Cr 2 O 3 ) as a grain enlarging dopant for UO 2 nuclear fuels fabricated under reducing environment

A study was performed to evaluate the microstructure and crystallography of nominally 500–2000 Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 fabricated in a temperature range of 1150–1750°C under reducing experimental conditions. We observed an increase in grain size of the samples with the increase in heat treating temperature as expected. For a given sintering temperature (1700–1750°C), an increase in the grain size was also observed with the increase in Cr 2 O 3 concentration up to a value of ~1000–1200 wppm. A decrease in fission gas release as a function of grain size was estimated for the Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 samples assuming specified post-irradiation annealing conditions. A nearly linear decrease was obtained in the lattice parameter of the Cr 2 O 3 -doped UO 2 fcc phase with the increase in Cr 2 O 3 concentration, especially up to a nominal value of 1000 wppm. The lattice parameter decrease was also persistent with the increase in the average grain size as a result of addition of Cr 2 O 3 into the UO 2 lattice. An increase in the crystallite size and a decrease in the microstrain of the $fcc$ phase were observed with the increase in the average grain size of the samples, indicating a higher crystallinity of the Cr 2 O 3 -doped samples than that of the undoped UO 2 sample.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2018

Characterization and Analysis of Phoca Vitulina, Zalophus Californianus and Mirounga Angustirostris Vibrissae

Vibrissae of Phoca Vitulina (harbor seal) and Mirounga Angustirostris (elephant seal) possess undulations along their length. Harbor seal vibrissae have shown potential to reduce vortex induced vibrations and reduce drag compared to cylinders and ellipses. The exact geometry of the whiskers has not been well documented and the parameters that are responsible for the reduction in drag and vortex induced vibrations have not been characterized. Samples of six harbor seal vibrissae, six elephant seal vibrissae and six California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) vibrissae were collected from the Marine Mammal Center in California. The objectives of this study were to (1) Compare measurement techniques for digitizing and extracting parameters of the seal whiskers for the PeTaL (Periodic Table of Life) database. CT scanning, microscopy and 3D scanning techniques were compared. (2) Compare aerodynamic characteristics of a representative harbor seal whisker, elephant seal whisker, California sea lion whisker and ellipse at Re = 12000 and Re = 23000 based on major axis and free stream velocity. The data (in appendices) is available to compare CFD models or for further experimental validation, (3) Show close up images of whiskers and look for surface roughness effects. Variations in the seven parameters of the seal whisker were observed that may either be a feature of the vibration reduction mechanism or a result of natural variation. It is hypothesized that six parameters are sufficient to characterize seal whiskers based on analytic fitting. The drag coefficient of harbor seal whiskers examined in this study were found to be 25 percent lower than that of an ellipse with comparable major and minor axis lengths at Reynolds number of 12000. The dissipation length scale was found to be larger for seal whiskers. Potential applications of seal whisker morphology for aerospace are discussed. Roughness is not thought to play a factor in seal hydrodynamics.

Shyam, Vikram↗
DOE OSTI2020

Imprecise global sensitivity analysis using bayesian multimodel inference and importance sampling

Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) aims to understand the relative importance of uncertain input variables to model response. Conventional GSA involves calculating sensitivity (Sobol’) indices for a model with known model parameter distributions. However, model parameters are affected by aleatory and epistemic uncertainty, with the latter often caused by lack of data. In this paper, we propose a new framework to quantify uncertainty in probability model-form and model parameters resulting from small datasets and integrate these uncertainties into Sobol’ index estimates. First, the process establishes, through Bayesian multimodel inference, a set of candidate probability models and their associated probabilities. Imprecise Sobol’ indices are calculated from these probability models using an importance sampling reweighting approach. This results in probabilistic Sobol’ indices, whose distribution characterizes uncertainty in the sensitivity resulting from small dataset size. The imprecise Sobol’ indices thus provide a measure of confidence in the sensitivity estimate and, moreover, can be used to inform data collection efforts targeted to minimize the impact of uncertainties. Through an example studying the parameters of a Timoshenko beam, we show that these probabilistic Sobol’ indices converge to the true/deterministic Sobol’ indices as the dataset size increases and hence, distribution-form uncertainty reduces. The approach is then applied to assess the sensitivity of the out-of-plane properties of an E-glass fiber composite material to its constituent properties. This second example illustrates the approach for an important class of materials with wide-ranging applications when data may be lacking for some input parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improved Platform for the Benchtop Study of Complex Radiological Environments that Affect Fallout Formation: DHS Feasbility Study (Final Report)

Fallout analysis is a crucial field of study as it provides insight into the structural interactions that occur between radiological components and their surroundings following a nuclear event. Due to the complexity of actual fallout samples, setups like the plasma flow reactor (PFR) at LLNL have been developed to synthesize fallout in a controlled environment. While the PFR allows for control of parameters such as initial temperature, cooling rate, and concentration of radiological species, controlling the concentration of water has remained a challenge as samples are introduced into the setup via aqueous solution. To that end, our goal with this project was to develop methodologies to (1) monitor and (2) control the presence of water in the PFR. We found that a commercially available FTIR and MCT detector was sufficient to monitor the presence of both condensed and vapor-phase water, while a desolvating nebulizer could be used to control the amount of water injected into the system. In total, the results of this feasibility study have expanded the ability of the flow reactor to investigate key sensitivities that influence fallout formation.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Efficient Bayesian Approach to Learning Droplet Collision Kernels: Proof of Concept Using “Cloudy,” a New n -Moment Bulk Microphysics Scheme

The small-scale microphysical processes governing the formation of precipitation particles cannot be resolved explicitly by cloud resolving and climate models. Instead, they are represented by microphysics schemes that are based on a combination of theoretical knowledge, statistical assumptions, and fitting to data (“tuning”). Historically, tuning was done in an ad hoc fashion, leading to parameter choices that are not explainable or repeatable. Recent work has treated it as an inverse problem that can be solved by Bayesian inference. The posterior distribution of the parameters given the data—the solution of Bayesian inference—is found through computationally expensive sampling methods, which require over $\mathcal{O}$(10 5 ) evaluations of the forward model; this is prohibitive for many models. We present a proof of concept of Bayesian learning applied to a new bulk microphysics scheme named “Cloudy,” using the recently developed Calibrate-Emulate-Sample (CES) algorithm. Cloudy models collision-coalescence and collisional breakup of cloud droplets with an adjustable number of prognostic moments and with easily modifiable assumptions for the cloud droplet mass distribution and the collision kernel. The CES algorithm uses machine learning tools to accelerate Bayesian inference by reducing the number of forward evaluations needed to $\mathcal{O}$(10 2 ). It also exhibits a smoothing effect when forward evaluations are polluted by noise. In a suite of perfect-model experiments, we show that CES enables computationally efficient Bayesian inference of parameters in Cloudy from noisy observations of moments of the droplet mass distribution. In an additional imperfect-model experiment, a collision kernel parameter is successfully learned from output generated by a Lagrangian particle-based microphysics model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Splat Quenching as a High Throughput Rapid Solidification Testing Method for Developing Additive Manufacturing Alloys

Splat quenching as a high throughput rapid solidification screening tool is evaluated. Samples were made using known alloys (SS316, IN625, Ti-5553) to evaluate and establish the microstructures for a variety of alloy systems as well as the predicted cooling rates. The samples are inductively heated and levitated prior to being struck between two platens that produce a high contact pressure and a thin sample resulting in cooling rates on the order of 10 6 to 10 7 K/s. Process parameters were evaluated with analytical models in addition to numerical simulations to provide an effect of process variables such as substrate material, melt superheat, and platen velocity on the resulting solidification. The splat thickness was found to be controlled by platen velocity, melt superheat, as well as the feedstock volume. The sample thickness is the key controlling factor for varying the average cooling rate experienced by the splat quenched sample. The splat quenching techniques can reach regions of rapid solidification space that meet and exceed laser and electron beam techniques across the sample. In conclusion, the results of the study provide a useful foundation in understanding the splat quenching technique and its potential as a low effort tool to explore rapid solidification effects on alloys.

Alloy Design↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Particle Size Distribution Parameters from SAGE III/ISS Extinction Spectra

Stratospheric aerosols play key roles in the chemistry and radiation balance of the atmosphere and are a key input parameter for global chemistry and climate models. The degree to which aerosols impact chemistry and radiation balance depends primarily on the relative abundance of different sized particles within the sample volume, often referred to as the particle size distribution (PSD). If the PSD is accurately known then other key modeling parameters (e.g., surface area density and effective radius) can be derived. Historically, occultation observations from orbital instruments such as SAGE III/ISS have been used to infer these PSD parameters by inverting the extinction coefficient spectra. However, past efforts routinely failed to account for measurement uncertainty and lacked a rigorous estimate of the inferred PSD uncertainty. We carried out a series of simulations to evaluate the accuracy of these inferences and, for every valid SAGE III/ISS extinction spectrum, determined the range of PSD parameters that fell withing the bounds of the extinction error bars. Special application of this method was applied to estimate the impact of the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption had on particle size distributions.

Travis N Knepp↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sage III/ISS Stratospheric Aerosols and Gas Experiment An Earth Science Mission on the International Space Station

Stratospheric aerosols play key roles in the chemistry and radiation balance of the atmosphere and are a key input parameter for global chemistry and climate models. The degree to which aerosols impact chemistry and radiation balance depends primarily on the relative abundance of different sized particles within the sample volume, often referred to as the particle size distribution (PSD). If the PSD is accurately known then other key modeling parameters (e.g., surface area density and effective radius) can be derived. Historically, occultation observations from orbital instruments such as SAGE III/ISS have been used to infer these PSD parameters by inverting the extinction coefficient spectra. However, past efforts routinely failed to account for measurement uncertainty and lacked a rigorous estimate of the inferred PSD uncertainty. We developed a PSD solution algorithm that infers single mode and bimodal distribution parameters and applied this algorithm to the SAGE II and SAGE III/ISS data record. Herein we describe the algorithm, evaluate its performance, and show results from the 2022 Hunga Tonga eruption.

Travis N. Knepp↗
DOE OSTI2022

KilonovaNet : Surrogate models of kilonova spectra with conditional variational autoencoders

ABSTRACT Detailed radiative transfer simulations of kilonova spectra play an essential role in multimessenger astrophysics. Using the simulation results in parameter inference studies requires building a surrogate model from the simulation outputs to use in algorithms requiring sampling. In this work, we present kilonovanet, an implementation of conditional variational autoencoders (cVAEs) for the construction of surrogate models of kilonova spectra. This method can be trained on spectra directly, removing overhead time of pre-processing spectra, and greatly speeds up parameter inference time. We build surrogate models of three state-of-the-art kilonova simulation data sets and present in-depth surrogate error evaluation methods, which can in general be applied to any surrogate construction method. By creating synthetic photometric observations from the spectral surrogate, we perform parameter inference for the observed light-curve data of GW170817 and compare the results with previous analyses. Given the speed with which kilonovanet performs during parameter inference, it will serve as a useful tool in future gravitational wave observing runs to quickly analyse potential kilonova candidates.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1974

Selection of sampling rate for digital control of aircrafts

The considerations in selecting the sample rates for digital control of aircrafts are identified and evaluated using the optimal discrete method. A high performance aircraft model which includes a bending mode and wind gusts was studied. The following factors which influence the selection of the sampling rates were identified: (1) the time and roughness response to control inputs; (2) the response to external disturbances; and (3) the sensitivity to variations of parameters. It was found that the time response to a control input and the response to external disturbances limit the selection of the sampling rate. The optimal discrete regulator, the steady state Kalman filter, and the mean response to external disturbances are calculated.

Katz, P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Scalable Gradient Free Method for Bayesian Experimental Design with Implicit Models

Bayesian experimental design (BED) is to answer the question that how to choose designs that maximize the information gathering. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling is possible, conventional BED methods have difficulties in efficiently estimating the posterior distribution and maximizing the mutual information (MI) between data and parameters. Recent work proposed the use of gradient ascent to maximize a lower bound on MI to deal with these issues. However, the approach requires a sampling path to compute the pathwise gradient of the MI lower bound with respect to the design variables, and such a pathwise gradient is usually inaccessible for implicit models. In this paper, we propose a novel approach that leverages recent advances in stochastic approximate gradient ascent incorporated with a smoothed variational MI estimator for efficient and robust BED. Without the necessity of pathwise gradients, our approach allows the design process to be achieved through a unified procedure with an approximate gradient for implicit models. Several experiments show that our approach outperforms baseline methods, and significantly improves the scalability of BED in high-dimensional problems.

Zhang, Jiaxin↗
NASA NTRS2019

Application of High-Dimensional Fuzzy K-Means Cluster Analysis to CALIOP/CALIPSO Version 4.1 Cloud-Aerosol Discrimination

This study applies fuzzy k-means (FKM) cluster analyses to a subset of the parameters reported in the CALIPSO lidar level 2 data products in order to classify the layers detected as either clouds or aerosols. The results obtained are used to assess the reliability of the cloud–aerosol discrimination (CAD) scores reported in the version 4.1 release of the CALIPSO data products. FKM is an unsupervised learning algorithm, whereas the CALIPSO operational CAD algorithm (COCA) takes a highly supervised approach. Despite these substantial computational and architectural differences, our statistical analyses show that the FKM classifications agree with the COCA classifications for more than 94 % of the cases in the troposphere. This high degree of similarity is achieved because the lidar-measured signatures of the majority of the clouds and the aerosols are naturally distinct, and hence objective methods can independently and effectively separate the two classes in most cases. Classification differences most often occur in complex scenes (e.g., evaporating water cloud filaments embedded in dense aerosol) or when observing diffuse features that occur only intermittently (e.g., volcanic ash in the tropical tropopause layer). The two methods examined in this study establish overall classification correctness boundaries due to their differing algorithm uncertainties. In addition to comparing the outputs from the two algorithms, analysis of sampling, data training, performance measurements, fuzzy linear discriminants, defuzzification, error propagation, and key parameters in feature type discrimination with the FKM method are further discussed in order to better understand the utility and limits of the application of clustering algorithms to space lidar measurements. In general, we find that both FKM and COCA classification uncertainties are only minimally affected by noise in the CALIPSO measurements, though both algorithms can be challenged by especially complex scenes containing mixtures of discrete layer types. Our analysis results show that attenuated backscatter and color ratio are the driving factors that separate water clouds from aerosols; backscatter intensity, depolarization, and mid-layer altitude are most useful in discriminating between aerosols and ice clouds; and the joint distribution of backscatter intensity and depolarization ratio is critically important for distinguishing ice clouds from water clouds.

Zeng, Shan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the Benefits of Bayesian Hierarchical Methods for Analyzing Heterogeneous Environmental Datasets: A Case Study of Marine Organic Carbon Fluxes

Large compilations of heterogeneous environmental observations are increasingly available as public databases, allowing researchers to test hypotheses across datasets. Statistical complexities arise when analyzing compiled data due to unbalanced spatial sampling, variable environmental context, mixed measurement techniques, and other reasons. Hierarchical Bayesian modeling is increasingly used in environmental science to describe these complexities, however few studies explicitly compare the utility of hierarchical Bayesian models to simpler and more commonly applied methods. Here we demonstrate the utility of the hierarchical Bayesian approach with application to a large compiled environmental dataset consisting of 5,741 marine vertical organic carbon flux observations from 407 sampling locations spanning eight biomes across the global ocean. We fit a global scale Bayesian hierarchical model that describes the vertical profile of organic carbon flux with depth. Profile parameters within a particular biome are assumed to share a common deviation from the global mean profile. Individual station-level parameters are then modeled as deviations from the common biome-level profile. The hierarchical approach is shown to have several benefits over simpler and more common data aggregation methods. First, the hierarchical approach avoids statistical complexities introduced due to unbalanced sampling and allows for flexible incorporation of spatial heterogeneitites in model parameters. Second, the hierarchical approach uses the whole dataset simultaneously to fit the model parameters which shares information across datasets and reduces the uncertainty up to 95% in individual profiles. Third, the Bayesian approach incorporates prior scientific information about model parameters; for example, the non-negativity of chemical concentrations or mass-balance, which we apply here. We explicitly quantify each of these properties in turn. We emphasize the generality of the hierarchical Bayesian approach for diverse environmental applications and its increasing feasibility for large datasets due to recent developments in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms and easy-to-use high-level software implementations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1976

LACIE performance predictor final operational capability program description, volume 1

The program EPHEMS computes the orbital parameters for up to two vehicles orbiting the earth for up to 549 days. The data represents a continuous swath about the earth, producing tables which can be used to determine when and if certain land segments will be covered. The program GRID processes NASA's climatology tape to obtain the weather indices along with associated latitudes and longitudes. The program LUMP takes substrata historical data and sample segment ID, crop window, crop window error and statistical data, checks for valid input parameters and generates the segment ID file, crop window file and the substrata historical file. Finally, the System Error Executive (SEE) Program checks YES error and truth data, CAMS error data, and signature extension data for validity and missing elements. A message is printed for each error found.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Validity Chlorophyll-a Estimation by Sun Induced Fluorescence in Estuarine Waters: An Analysis of Long-term (2003-2011) Water Quality Data from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA)

Satellite observation of phytoplankton concentration or chlorophyll-a is an important characteristic, critically integral to monitoring coastal water quality. However, the optical properties of estuarine and coastal waters are highly variable and complex and pose a great challenge for accurate analysis. Constituents such as suspended solids and dissolved organic matter and the overlapping and uncorrelated absorptions in the blue region of the spectrum renders the blue-green ratio algorithms for estimating chlorophyll-a inaccurate. Measurement of sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, on the other hand, which utilizes the near infrared portion of the electromagnetic spectrum, may provide a better estimate of phytoplankton concentrations. While modelling and laboratory studies have illustrated both the utility and limitations of satellite baseline algorithms based on the sun induced chlorophyll fluorescence signal, few have examined the empirical validity of these algorithms using a comprehensive long term in situ data set. In an unprecedented analysis of a long term (2003-2011) in situ monitoring data from Tampa Bay, Florida (USA), we assess the validity of the FLH product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) against chlorophyll ]a and a suite of water quality parameters taken in a variety of conditions throughout a large optically complex estuarine system. A systematic analysis of sampling sites throughout the bay is undertaken to understand how the relationship between FLH and in situ chlorophyll-a responds to varying conditions within the estuary including water depth, distance from shore and structures and eight water quality parameters. From the 39 station for which data was derived, 22 stations showed significant correlations when the FLH product was matched with in situ chlorophyll-alpha data. The correlations (r2) for individual stations within Tampa Bay ranged between 0.67 (n=28, pless than 0.01) and-0.457 (n=12, p=.016), indicating that for some areas within the Bay, FLH can be a good predictor of chlorophyll-alpha concentration and hence a useful tool for the analysis of water quality. Overall, the results show a 106% increase in the validity of chlorophyll -a concentration estimates using FLH over the standard the blue-green OC3M algorithm. This analysis also illustrates that the correlations between FLH and in situ chlorophyll -a measurements increases with increasing water depth and distance of the monitoring sites from both the shore and structures. However, due to confounding factors related to the complexity of the estuarine system, a linear improvement in the FLH to chlorophyll ]a relationship was not clearly noted with increasing depth and distance from shore alone. Correlations of FLH with turbidity, nutrients (total nitrogen and total phosphorous) biological oxygen demand, salinity, sea surface temperature correlated positively with FLH concentrations, while dissolved oxygen and pH showed negative correlations. Principle component analyses are employed to further describe the relationships between the multivariate water quality parameters and the FLH product. The majority of sites with higher and very significant correlations (pless than 0.01) also showed high correlation values for nutrients, turbidity and biological oxygen demand. These sites were on average in greater than seven meters of water and over five kilometers from shore. A thorough understanding of the relationship between the MODIS FLH product and in situ water quality parameters will enhance our understanding of the accuracy MODIS fs global FLH algorithm and assist in optimizing its calibration for use in monitoring the quality of estuarine and coastal waters worldwide.

Moreno-Madrinan, Max Jacobo↗
NASA NTRS1986

Pervasive small-scale structure in molecular clouds

An unbiased CO survey of molecular cloud cores was completed, and the profiles were analyzed within the context of a model for emission from clumpy clouds. It was found that all sources observed contain a significant amount of structure that is not resolved with our 2.3-arcmin beam, and that the parameters which describe the degree of clumping span a remarkably narrow range of the possible values. We studied two separate samples of cloud cores: a large sample of warm cores from the Massachusetts-Stony Brook 12CO survey of the first galactic quadrant, and a sample of cool cores in the Taurus dark clouds chosen primarily on the basis of H2CO emission. We observed all sources in the 1-0 transition of 12CO and 13CO with the 5-m telescope of the Millimeter Wave Observatory. The 12CO/13CO ratios can be explained if there is unresolved structure giving rise to significant variations of opacity across the beam. Our model cloud consists of a large number of identical clumps distributed randomly in the beam. These clumps have velocity widths v small compared to the width of the observed profile, which is determined by the relative motion of the clumps. The entire cloud is isothermal and in local thermodynamic equilibrium. With these assumptions the intensity and linewidth ratios depend on three parameters: the abundance ratio; the peak 13CO opacity through a single clump, tau(0); and the average number of clumps on a line of sight N. Small tau(0) and large N correspond to the microturbulent limit, which is indistinguishable from a uniform gas distribution. In the other extreme, large tau(0) and snall N, at a given velocity at most one clump contributes to the profile on each line of sight. A figure is presented which shows the model parameters which reproduce the measured intensity and linewidth ratios for the sample of warm cores, assuming an abundance ratio of 75.

Martin, B.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Effective optical constants of anisotropic materials

The applicability of a technique for determining the optical constants of soil or aerosol components on the basis of measurements of the reflectance or transmittance of inhomogeneous samples of component material is investigated. Optical constants for a sample of very pure quartzite were obtained by a specular reflection technique and line parameters were calculated by classical dispersion theory. Predictions of the reflectance of powdered quartz were then derived from optical constants measured for the anisotropic quartz and for pure quartz crystals, and compared with experimental measurements. The calculated spectra are found to resemble each other moderately well in shape, however the reflectance level calculated from the psuedo-optical constants (quartzite) is consistently below that calculated from quartz values. The spectrum calculated from the quartz optical constants is also shown to represent the experimental nonrestrahlen features more accurately. It is thus concluded that although optical constants derived from inhomogeneous materials may represent the spectral features of a powdered sample qualitatively a quantitative fit to observed data is not likely.

Aronson, J. R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Taylor approximation variance reduction for approximation errors in PDE-constrained Bayesian inverse problems

In numerous applications, surrogate models are used as a replacement for accurate parameter-to-observable mappings when solving large-scale inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The surrogate model may be a computationally cheaper alternative to the accurate parameter-to-observable mappings and/or may ignore additional unknowns or sources of uncertainty. The Bayesian approximation error (BAE) approach provides a means to account for the induced uncertainties and approximation errors, i.e. the errors between the accurate parameter-to-observable mapping and the surrogate. The statistics of these errors are, however, in general unknown a priori, and are thus calculated using Monte Carlo sampling. Although the sampling is typically carried out offline, i.e. before considering the data, the process can still represent a computational bottleneck. In this work, we develop a scalable computational approach for reducing the costs associated with the sampling stage of the BAE approach. Specifically, we consider the Taylor expansion of the accurate and surrogate forward models with respect to the uncertain parameter fields either as a control variate for variance reduction or as a means to directly and efficiently approximate the mean and covariance of the approximation errors. We propose efficient methods for evaluating the expressions for the mean and covariance of the Taylor approximations based on linear(-ized) PDE solves. Furthermore, the proposed approach is independent of the dimension of the uncertain parameter, depending instead on the intrinsic dimension of the data, ensuring scalability to high-dimensional problems. The potential benefits of the proposed approach are demonstrated for two high-dimensional inverse problems governed by PDE examples, namely for the estimation of a distributed Robin boundary coefficient in a linear diffusion problem, and for a coefficient estimation problem governed by a nonlinear diffusion problem.

Bayesian approximation error↗