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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

JPL Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) Portal

Satellite observations can play a very important role in airborne field campaigns, since they provide a comprehensive description of the environment that is essential for the experiment design, flight planning, and post-experiment scientific data analysis. In the past, it has been difficult to fully utilize data from multiple NASA satellites due to the large data volume, the complexity of accessing NASA s data in near-real-time (NRT), as well as the lack of software tools to interact with multi-sensor information. The JPL GRIP Portal is a Web portal that serves a comprehensive set of NRT observation data sets from NASA and NOAA satellites describing the atmospheric and oceanic environments related to the genesis and intensification of the tropical storms in the North Atlantic Ocean. Together with the model forecast data from four major global atmospheric models, this portal provides a useful tool for the scientists and forecasters in planning and monitoring the NASA GRIP field campaign during the 2010 Atlantic Ocean hurricane season. This portal uses the Google Earth plug-in to visualize various types of data sets, such as 2D maps, wind vectors, streamlines, 3D data sets presented at series of vertical cross-sections or pointwise vertical profiles, and hurricane best tracks and forecast tracks. Additionally, it allows users to overlap multiple data sets, change the opacity of each image layer, generate animations on the fly with selected data sets, and compare the observation data with the model forecast using two independent calendars. The portal also provides the capability to identify the geographic location of any point of interest. In addition to supporting the airborne mission planning, the NRT data and portal will serve as a very rich source of information during the post-field campaign analysis stage of the airborne experiment. By including a diverse set of satellite observations and model forecasts, it provides a good spatial and temporal context for the high-resolution, but limited in space and time, airborne observations.

Knosp, Brian W.↗

Correlations Between Sea-Surface Salinity Tendencies and Freshwater Fluxes in the Pacific Ocean

Temporal changes in sea-surface salinity (SSS) from 21 years of a high resolution model integration of the Pacific Ocean are correlated with the freshwater flux that was used to force the integration. The correlations are calculated on a 1 x10 grid, and on a monthly scale to assess the possibility of deducing evaporation minus precipitation (E-P) fields from the salinity measurements to be taken by the upcoming Aquarius/SAC-D mission. Correlations between the monthly mean E-P fields and monthly mean SSS temporal tendencies are mainly zonally-oriented, and are highest where the local precipitation is relatively high. Nonseasonal (deviations from the monthly mean) correlations are highest along mid-latitude storm tracks and are relatively small in the tropics. The response of the model's surface salinity to surface forcing is very complex, and retrievals of freshwater fluxes from SSS measurements alone will require consideration of other processes, including horizontal advection and vertical mixing, rather than a simple balance between the two.

Li, Zhen↗

Modes and Mechanisms of Pacific Decadal-Scale Variability

The modes of Pacific decadal-scale variability (PDV), traditionally defined as statistical patterns of variance, reflect to first order the ocean's integration (i.e., reddening) of atmospheric forcing that arises from both a shift and a change in strength of the climatological (time-mean) atmospheric circulation. While these patterns concisely describe PDV, they do not distinguish among the key dynamical processes driving the evolution of PDV anomalies, including atmospheric and ocean teleconnections and coupled feedbacks with similar spatial structures that operate on different timescales. In this review, we synthesize past analysis using an empirical dynamical model constructed from monthly ocean surface anomalies drawn from several reanalysis products, showing that the PDV modes of variance result from two fundamental low-frequency dynamical eigenmodes: the North Pacific–central Pacific (NP-CP) and Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension (KOE) modes. Both eigenmodes highlight how two-way tropical–extratropical teleconnection dynamics are the primary mechanisms energizing and synchronizing the basin-scale footprint of PDV. While the NP-CP mode captures interannual- to decadal-scale variability, the KOE mode is linked to the basin-scale expression of PDV on decadal to multidecadal timescales, including contributions from the South Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Observationally driven Resource Assessment with CoupLEd models (ORACLE)

This project seeks to carry out a multifaceted analysis combining buoy observations, machine learning, turbulence, satellite data and high-resolution modeling. Our analyses will investigate air–sea interaction physics governing the variation of the winds with height and influence of clouds, uncertainty in coupled ocean-wave-atmosphere mesoscale models to capture certain key atmospheric phenomenon observed over the U.S. West Coast, impact of climate change, and the fidelity with which resource characterization models describe the range of observed offshore wind conditions. This project will focus its efforts on characterizing and assessing the atmospheric and oceanographic conditions along the U.S. West Coast.

Wind, Energy↗

Subpolar North Atlantic Mean State Affects the Response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to the North Atlantic Oscillation in CMIP6 Models

Abstract The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) plays an important role in climate, transporting heat and salt to the subpolar North Atlantic. The AMOC’s variability is sensitive to atmospheric forcing, especially the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Because AMOC observations are short, climate models are a valuable tool to study the AMOC’s variability. Yet, there are known issues with climate models, like uncertainties and systematic biases. To investigate this, preindustrial control experiments from models participating in the phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) are evaluated. There is a large, but correlated, spread in the models’ subpolar gyre mean surface temperature and salinity. By splitting models into groups of either a warm–salty or cold–fresh subpolar gyre, it is shown that warm–salty models have a lower sea ice cover in the Labrador Sea and, hence, enable a larger heat loss during a positive NAO. Stratification in the Labrador Sea is also weaker in warm–salty models, such that the larger NAO-related heat loss can also affect greater depths. As a result, subsurface density anomalies are much stronger in the warm–salty models than in those that tend to be cold and fresh. As these anomalies propagate southward along the western boundary, they establish a zonal density gradient anomaly that promotes a stronger delayed AMOC response to the NAO in the warm–salty models. These findings demonstrate how model mean state errors are linked across variables and affect variability, emphasizing the need for improvement of the subpolar North Atlantic mean states in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Importance of the Antarctic Slope Current in the Southern Ocean Response to Ice Sheet Melt and Wind Stress Change

Abstract We use two coupled climate models, GFDL‐CM4 and GFDL‐ESM4, to investigate the physical response of the Southern Ocean to changes in surface wind stress, Antarctic meltwater, and the combined forcing of the two in a pre‐industrial control simulation. The meltwater cools the ocean surface in all regions except the Weddell Sea, where the wind stress warms the near‐surface layer. The limited sensitivity of the Weddell Sea surface layer to the meltwater is due to the spatial distribution of the meltwater fluxes, regional bathymetry, and large‐scale circulation patterns. The meltwater forcing dominates the Antarctic shelf response and the models yield strikingly different responses along West Antarctica. The disagreement is attributable to the mean‐state representation and meltwater‐driven acceleration of the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC). In CM4, the meltwater is efficiently trapped on the shelf by a well resolved, strong, and accelerating ASC which isolates the West Antarctic shelf from warm offshore waters, leading to strong subsurface cooling. In ESM4, a weaker and diffuse ASC allows more meltwater to escape to the open ocean, the West Antarctic shelf does not become isolated, and instead strong subsurface warming occurs. The CM4 results suggest a possible negative feedback mechanism that acts to limit future melting, while the ESM4 results suggest a possible positive feedback mechanism that acts to accelerate melt. Our results demonstrate the strong influence the ASC has on governing changes along the shelf, highlighting the importance of coupling interactive ice sheet models to ocean models that can resolve these dynamical processes.

Beadling, R. L.↗

Probabilistic Machine Learning Estimation of Ocean Mixed Layer Depth from Dense Satellite and Sparse In-Situ Observations

The ocean mixed layer plays an important role in the coupling between the upper ocean and atmosphere across a wide range of time scales. Estimation of the variability of the ocean mixed layer is therefore important for atmosphere-ocean prediction and analysis. The increasing coverage of in situ Argo profile data allows for an increasingly accurate analysis of the mixed layer depth (MLD) variability associated with deviations from the seasonal climatology. However, sampling rates are not sufficient to fully resolve subseasonal (<90 day) MLD variability. Yet, many multivariate observations-based analyses include implicit modeled subseasonal MLD variability. One analysis method is optimal interpolation of in situ data, but the interior analysis can be improved by leveraging surface data with regression or variational approaches. Here, we demonstrate how machine learning methods and satellite sea surface temperature, salinity, and height facilitate MLD estimation in a pilot study of two regions: the mid-latitude southern Indian and the eastern equatorial Pacific Oceans. We construct multiple machine learning architectures to produce weekly 1/2° gridded MLD anomaly fields (relative to a monthly climatology) with uncertainty estimates. We test multiple traditional and probabilistic machine learning techniques to compare both accuracy and probabilistic calibration. We validate our methodology by applying it to ocean model simulations. We find that incorporating sea surface data through a machine learning model improves the performance of spatiotemporal MLD variability estimation compared to optimal interpolation of Argo observations alone. These preliminary results are a promising first step for the application of machine learning to MLD prediction.

Machine Learning↗

Comparison of SSM/I measurements to numerically-simulated cloud and precipitation during ERICA

These investigations focused essentially on the macroscale organization of cloud and precipitation which occurred during the 4th Intensive Observing Period (IOP-4) of the Experiment for Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA). This experiment, held off the East Coast of the United States and Canada during the winter of 1989, documented several episodes of rapid cyclonic storm development. Also playing a major role as validation and ground truth in these studies are Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) retrievals of precipitable water, total liquid water and ice, generated by other Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) supported investigations. Model simulations produced to date suggest that, while the large-scale atmospheric dynamics was an essential driving mechanism, the role of condensation was crucial in facilitating the exceptionally rapid spinup of the cyclone and the low surface pressure. A model simulation of the precipitation rate at the time of most rapid storm intensification is shown in the accompanying figure. Heavier precipitation rates in the crescent shaped region are associated with deep convection along the leading edge of a dry intrusion behind the surface low. The majority of precipitation in the stratiform region to the northeast involved the production of ice with deposition from vapor to ice being the dominant process of growth. Some small amount of mixed phase cloudiness was present. Model condensate distributions matched well with SSM/I observations. The accompanying SSM/I imagery which delineates areas of large (greater than several hundred micron effective radius) precipitating ice over the ocean suggests that the model has done well in capturing the essential mechanisms responsible for the horizontal distribution of precipitation.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Connecting Paleo and Modern Oceanographic Data to Understand Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Over Decades to Centuries

Modeling is an important tool for understanding AMOC on all timescales. Mechanistic studies of modern AMOC variability have been hampered by a lack of consistency between free-running models and the sensitivity of AMOC to resolution and parameterization. Recent work within the framework of the phase two Coordinated Ocean- Reference Experiments (CORE-II) addresses this issue head on, looking at model differences of AMOC mean state and interannual variability. One consistent feature across the models is that AMOC mean transport is related to mixed layer depths and Labrador Sea salt content, whereas interannual variability is primarily associated with Labrador Sea temperature anomalies. This is consistent with the hypothesized importance of salt balance for AMOC variability on geological timescales. The simulated relationships between AMOC and subsurface temperature anomalies in fully coupled climate models reveal subsurface AMOC fingerprints that could be used to reconstruct historical AMOC variations at low frequency.With the lack of long-term AMOC observations, models of ocean state that assimilate observational data have been explored as a way to reconstruct AMOC, but comparisons between models indicate they are quite variable in their AMOC representations. Karspeck et al. (2015) found that historical reconstructions of AMOC in such models are sensitive to the details of the data assimilation procedure. The ocean data assimilation community continues to address these issues through improved models and methods for estimating and representing error information.Two objectives of paleoclimate modeling are 1) to provide mechanistic information for interpretation of paleoclimate observations, and 2) to test the ability of predictive models to simulate Earth's climate under different background forcing states. In a good example of the first objective, Schmittner and Lund (2015) and Menviel et al. (2014) provided key information about the proxy signals expected under freshwater disturbance of AMOC, which were used to support the paleoclimate observations made by Henry et al. (2016). In an example of the second objective, Muglia and Schmittner (2015) analyzed Third Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP3) models of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and found consistently more intense and deeper AMOC transports relative to preindustrial simulations, counter to the paleoclimate consensus of LGM conditions, indicating that some processes are not well represented in the PMIP3 models. One challenge is to find adequate paleo observations against which to test these models. PMIP is now in phase 4 (part of CMIP6), which includes experiments covering five periods in Earth's history: the last millennium, last glacial maximum, last interglacial, and the mid-Pliocene. Newly compiled paleoclimate datasets from the PAGES2k project, more transient simulations, and participation of isotope enabled models planned for CMIP6PMIP4 will enable richer paleo data-model comparisons in the near future.

Kilbourne, Hali↗

Local and Downstream Relationships Between Labrador Sea Water Volume and North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability

While it has generally been understood that the production of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) impacts the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC), this relationship has not been explored extensively nor validated against observations. To explore this relationship, a suite of global ocean and ocean–sea-ice models forced by the same interannually-varying atmospheric dataset, varying in resolution from non-eddy permitting to eddy-permitting (1°–1/4°), is analyzed to investigate the local and downstream relationships between LSW formation and the MOC on interannual to decadal time scales. While all models display a strong relationship between changes in the LSW volume and the MOC in the Labrador Sea, this relationship degrades considerably downstream of the Labrador Sea. In particular, there is no consistent pattern among the models in the North Atlantic subtropical basin over interannual to decadal time scales. Furthermore, the strong response of the MOC in the Labrador Sea to LSW volume changes in that basin may be biased by the overproduction of LSW in many models compared to observations. This analysis shows that changes in LSW volume in the Labrador Sea cannot be clearly and consistently linked to a coherent MOC response across latitudes over interannual to decadal time scales in ocean hindcast simulations of the last half-century. Similarly, no coherent relationships are identified between the MOC and the Labrador Sea mixed layer depth or the density of newly formed LSW across latitudes or across models over interannual to decadal time scales.

Feili Li↗

Observations of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Volume Loss and Its Impact on Ocean-Atmosphere Energy Exchange and Ice Production

Using recently developed techniques we estimate snow and sea ice thickness distributions for the Arctic basin through the combination of freeboard data from the Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and a snow depth model. These data are used with meteorological data and a thermodynamic sea ice model to calculate ocean-atmosphere heat exchange and ice volume production during the 2003-2008 fall and winter seasons. The calculated heat fluxes and ice growth rates are in agreement with previous observations over multiyear ice. In this study, we calculate heat fluxes and ice growth rates for the full distribution of ice thicknesses covering the Arctic basin and determine the impact of ice thickness change on the calculated values. Thinning of the sea ice is observed which greatly increases the 2005-2007 fall period ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes compared to those observed in 2003. Although there was also a decline in sea ice thickness for the winter periods, the winter time heat flux was found to be less impacted by the observed changes in ice thickness. A large increase in the net Arctic ocean-atmosphere heat output is also observed in the fall periods due to changes in the areal coverage of sea ice. The anomalously low sea ice coverage in 2007 led to a net ocean-atmosphere heat output approximately 3 times greater than was observed in previous years and suggests that sea ice losses are now playing a role in increasing surface air temperatures in the Arctic.

Kurtz, N. T.↗

Wildfire aerosol deposition likely amplified a summertime Arctic phytoplankton bloom

Summertime wildfire activity is increasing in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the impact of long range transport and deposition of wildfire aerosols on biogeochemical cycles in the Arctic Ocean is unknown. Here, we use satellite-based ocean color data, atmospheric modeling and back trajectory analysis to investigate the transport and fate of aerosols emitted from Siberian wildfires in summer 2014 and their potential impact on phytoplankton dynamics in the Arctic Ocean. We detect large phytoplankton blooms near the North Pole (up to 82°N in the eastern Eurasian Basin). Our analysis indicates that these blooms were induced by the northward plume transport and deposition of nutrient-bearing wildfire aerosols. We estimate that these highly stratified surface waters received large amounts of wildfire-derived nitrogen, which alleviated nutrient stress in the phytoplankton community and triggered an unusually large bloom event. Our findings suggest that changes in wildfire activity may strongly influence summertime productivity in the Arctic Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Total Effective Dose from Radiologic Emissions from INL Facilities for Calculation of Population Dose for the INL 2024 Annual Site Environmental Report

Total effective radiation dose from airborne releases was calculated using air dispersion modeling performed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Idaho Falls Office using their HYSPLIT computer model (Stein et al. 2015; Draxler et al. 2013), and the Dose Multi-Media (DOSEMM) dose assessment model (Rood 2019) . The objective of these calculations was to provide a grid of total effective dose across a model domain that encompasses a 50-mile (80-km) radius from any Idaho National Laboratory (INL) Site source. In addition to INL Site sources, releases from the Radiological and Environmental Sciences Laboratory (RESL) (IF-683) and IF-603 located at the INL Research Center (IRC) within the Idaho Falls city limits were also included. Due to tracking limitations, radionuclides released from IF-611 and IF-603 are modeled as released from IF-603. The dose results will be combined with GIS software to compute a total population dose for the calendar year (CY) 2024 and will be reported in the INL Annual Site Environmental Report (ASER). This report does not cover the population dose calculation and only documents generation of the gridded dose file.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

Satellite ocean color measurements

The application of pattern recognition to ocean color data analysis is considered. Due to weight, cost, and data transmission rate limitations, any mapping type remote sensor of ocean color must necessarily collect light from the sea in a finite number of channels. The optical properties of the sea are discussed together with the remote sensing of ocean color, an optical model of natural water, the microscopic optical model, the macroscopic optical model, multiple scattering theory, measurements of subsurface oceanographic parameters, measurements of bulk absorption and scattering properties, measurements of the up- and down-welling light field, and the techniques for ocean color data analysis.

Mccluney, W. R.↗

The mean age of mantle and crustal reservoirs

An analysis of two transport models for trace elements in mantle and crust evolution and related to the observed abundance patterns. In model I, continents are derived by melt extraction over the earth history from undepleted mantle, and the residue forms a depleted mantle which is the current source of mid-ocean ridge basalts. In model II, new additions to continents are derived from a mantle reservoir 2, which becomes more depleted by repeated extraction of melts. The isotopic composition and concentrations of trace elements are shown to reduce to simple mathematical expressions which permit calculations of basic evolutionary parameters. The mean age of the crust mass and isotopic data for the continental crust and the mantle are discussed, concluding with a consideration of their difference in compositions of newly derived crust.

Jacobsen, S. B.↗

Gravitational Signal of Mass Redistribution Due to Interannual Meteorological Oscillations in Atmosphere and Ocean

Interannual meteorological oscillations (ENSO, QBO, NAO, etc.) have demonstrable influences on Earth's rotation. Here we study their effects on global gravitational field, whose temporal variations are being studied using SLR (satellite laser ranging) data and in anticipation of the new space mission GRACE. The meteorological oscillation modes are identified using the EOF (empirical orthogonal function)/PC (principal component) decomposition of surface fields (in which we take care of issues associated with the area-weighting and non-zero mean). We examine two fields, one for the global surface pressure field for the atmosphere obtained from the NCEP reanalysis (for the past 40 years), one for the surface topography field for the ocean from the Topex/Poseidon (T/P) data (for the past 8 years). We use monthly maps, and remove the mean-monthly ("climatology") values from each grid point, hence focusing only on non-seasonal signals. The T/P data were first subject to a steric correction where the steric contribution to the ocean surface topography was removed according to output of the numerical POCM model. The respective atmospheric and oceanic contributions to the gravitational variation, in terms of harmonic Stokes coefficients, are then combined mode-by-mode. Since the T/P data already contain the oceanic response to overlying atmospheric pressure, no regards to the inverted-barometer behavior for the ocean need be considered. Results for the lowest-degree Stokes coefficients can then be compared with space geodetic observations including the Earth's rotation and the SLR data mentioned above, to identify the importance of each meteorological oscillations in gravitational variation signals.

Chao, B. F.↗