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DOE OSTI2026

Mountain Basin Controls on the Snow-to-Streamflow Signal: An AIC-Weighted Multiple Linear Regression Framework

A regression-based analysis quantifies how basin characteristics modulate the snow-to-streamflow signal. First, we use the ERA5-Land reanalysis gridded product (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 5 -Land component) for 4,655 hydrologic unit code - 10 (HUC10) mountain basins across the western United States (US) for water years 1987–2024. Linear regressions are performed for peak snow water equivalent (SWE) and annual streamflow for each mountain basin. Models use ordinary least squares in Python’s statsmodels package. After which, an Akaike Information Criterion (AIC)–weighted ensemble multiple linear regression (MLR) framework with 47 watershed traits is used to predict the linear regression coefficient of determination (r-squared) defining the ability of peak SWE to predict annual streamflow across all mountain basin. Predictor sets are constrained to avoid multicollinearity by excluding models with variance inflation factors (VIF) greater than 5. Mountain basin traits included in the MLR include seasonal climate, topography, vegetation type and structure, and bedrock geology. Accepted models are considered if their AIC is within 2.0 of the model with the minimum AIC, or best model. To compare predictor influence across acceptable models, we computed standardized regression coefficients. To evaluate structural redundancy among models, we constructed binary inclusion vectors for each acceptable model, denoting whether a predictor was present (1) or absent (0). Core predictor variables are defined as occurring in at least 67% of the acceptable models. For this regional analysis, only one model was found acceptable, with higher snow-to-streamflow translation (higher r-squared) occurring in colder mountain basins with higher relative winter precipitation, more snow accumulation and a lower fraction of annual precipitation that falls in the spring and summer. The second component of the data package uses previously published, high-resolution output from an integrated hydrological model of the East River watershed using the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater and Surface water Flow model (GSFLOW, doi:10.15485/1998576). East River MLR expands upon the approach described above to explore the response of five streamflow metrics—annual streamflow, runoff efficiency, 7-day minimum flow, low-flow duration, and non-perennial stream fraction to snow system indicators including peak SWE, snow-covered area, snow disappearance date, and the fraction of basin area characterized by low-to-no snow, as well as seasonal precipitation and temperature, and annual hydrologic variables representing soil moisture, evapotranspiration (ET), the partitioning of incoming precipitation to evapotranspiration (ET/P), groundwater storage, and groundwater inflow to streams. MLR was done on all water years (P0: 1987-2024) and for each period as determined in the split analysis using pooled regression techniques (P1: 1987-2011 and P2: 2012-2024) to evaluate shifting predictor variable emphasis on streamflow generation. Results indicate that since 2012, peak SWE has lost statistical strength in its prediction of annual streamflow and runoff efficiency, and the indirect influence of spring temperature has emerged as critically important. Low-flow metrics remain largely influenced by soil moisture, vegetation water use and groundwater inflows with summer precipitation becoming a direct influence on minimum summer flow. Together, these data and Python-based analysis tools provide a framework for identifying the key watershed characteristics that control how streamflow responds to snow from year to year. The package also helps quantify uncertainty in statistical models and assess how snow–streamflow relationships vary across regions and over time. This dataset contains comma-separated values files (.csv), text files (.txt), python code files (.py), figure files (.png), and shapefiles (.cpg, .dbf, .prj, .sbn, .sbx, .shp, .xml). Further details on file contents and MLR execution can be found in the readme file and the FLMD files. Work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Sourced Collaboration for the Production and Refining of Rare Elements and Critical Metals (Final Technical Report)

The project objective was to develop a feasible and cost-effective method for recovering rare earth elements (REEs) and critical materials (CMs) from coal and coal byproducts, resulting in high-purity individually separated REEs and CMs. The targeted REEs included Y, Pr, Nd, Gd, Dy, and Sm, with a purity of over 99.5%, while the CMs included Co, Mn, Ga, Sr, Li, Ni, Zn, and Ge, with a purity of over 90%. The project aimed to design a prototype facility capable of producing 1-3 tonnes/day of high-purity REO mixes. The work was divided into four designated circuits: 1) REE extraction and concentration, 2) REE separation and purification, 3) RE metal production, and 4) CM production. To achieve these goals, the project involved 11 tasks, including technology reviews, research, process flow diagram development, mass balance estimation, and preliminary technical-economic analysis. The project team included researchers from the University of Kentucky, University of Alabama and Virginia Tech as well as process specialists from Argonne National Laboratory. MP Materials provided technical support regarding rare earth markets and processing while Alliance Coal performed resource assessment. The project included a market analysis for Nd/Pr, Tb, Dy, Gd, Y, Co, Mn, Li, Sr, Ga, Ni, Zn, and Ge. These analyses provided insights into the supply and demand trends as well as historic and future projections of market price relative to purity requirements for these elements. Two coal resources were selected for the project: the West Kentucky No. 13 (Baker) Seam and an undisclosed lignite resource in the Illinois coal basin. The estimated quantities of REEs in these resources were calculated based on production samples and drilling data. It was estimated that there is adequate supply for an operation producing one metric ton daily of higher purity mixed rare earth oxides (MREO) for approximately 20 years at a site located in western Kentucky. In Circuit 1, project data was obtained from a pilot heap leach and REE concentration facility. It was concluded that the existing circuit, which generated a MREO concentrate, two types of CM mixed products, and Li- and Sr-containing waters, would be suitable feed for circuits 2-4. Data from the first-of-its-kind coal coarse refuse heap leach pilot pad played a crucial role in estimating reliable elemental concentrations of the pregnant leaching solution (PLS). The average total REE concentration in the PLS was found to be 28.6 ppm. In Circuit 2, several concepts were explored including a novel process referred to as solvent-assisted chromatography (SAC). This concept involved a novel columnar reactor that incorporated multiple mixer/settlers, thereby enabling the operation of counter-flowing aqueous and organic phases. Unfortunately, due to project time constraints, a complete fundamental modeling analysis could not be completed to fully evaluate the technology. Molten salt electrowinning was considered as an alternative for circuit 3 following circuit 2 purification circuit utilizing the novel SAC process. A mass and energy balance of Nd reduction to metal in a fluoride containing molten salt electrolyte was conducted. Comparisons were made with the current state of Asian molten salt electrorefining, and potential improvements in siphoning rare earth metals (REM) from the reactor were presented. A cost estimate was performed for the production of 1 tonne per day, which yielded a total of $2.29 million for the nine electrowinning (EW) cells required. The selected option for circuits 2 and 3 was a plasma distillation process, which initially separates rare earth elements (REEs) from other elements. This is followed by selective electrowinning in various ionic liquids. The selection was made on the basis of thermodynamic modeling and experimental data previously published by a project partner. The combination offers an innovative approach to integrated refining and RE metal production. For Circuit 4, an extensive literature review was conducted for the processing of the CMs. The ultimate decision was to utilize a combined plasma and ionic liquid process as well to produce individual high-purity concentrates of Zn, Ni, Co, Mn, and Mg. A separate flowsheet for Li and Sr was recommended, which would yield carbonates of these elements. Due to the lack of suitable experimental data at this time, a process recommendation could not be provided but several methods have been proposed for consideration. Lastly, a techno-economic analysis (TEA) was conducted to assess the effectiveness of the proposed process for further investigation. The TEA results revealed a capital expense (CapEx) of $737 million and an annual operational expense (OpEx) of $220 million. Due to the selected elements, the hypothetical heap leach pad can produce 1 metric tonne per day of REO equivalent, but a conscious decision was made to only treat targeted REEs, resulting in the production of 0.4 metric tonne of REM. An estimated annual revenue of $90.87 million was projected based on standard market pricing information provided by the funding agency. During the TEA, ten different modules were evaluated for costing purposes. The precipitation circuit was identified as the largest single operational expense, followed by the Mg/Mn process due to the amount of treated metal. In terms of capital expenditures, the heap leach process incurred the highest cost, followed by the Mg/Mn process. The scalability of the plasma process is a crucial consideration since the reactors cannot be scaled beyond the largest demonstrated size due to their reliance on surface area of the slag and vapor phase. The purity estimate for the REEs are generally 98%±2% to produce a metal. The purity level being lower than the project objective was due to the lack of specific experimental data needed to tighten the tolerance of the estimates. Based on literature and previous experience, the CMs are estimated as follows; Ga (95%+, metal), Sr (95%+, carbonate), Li (95%+, carbonate), Ni (98%±2%, metal), Zn (95%+, metal sponge), Ge (95%+, metal), Co (98%±2%, metal), and Mn (98%±2%, metal).

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2023

A New Plasma Radar Concept for Simultaneous Magnetic and Density Measurements

An innovative, compact 288GHz interferometer has been fabricated, tested, installed and successfully demonstrated on the LAPD-U magnetized plasma at UCLA. The system takes advantage of frequency modulated (FM) radar techniques to deliver a compact heterodyne system. In addition, the reflected power from the source is taken advantage of to eliminate the need for additional quasi-optical components. Electron density in LAPD-U plasma has recently been increased substantially thereby requiring a higher frequency/shorter wavelength interferometer to avoid deleterious refractive effects. This system satisfies those needs. The system uses a 96GHz varactor tuned Gunn oscillator which passes to a passive tripler. This tripler has ~3% conversion efficiency. The 288GHz radiation is then coupled to free space using a so-called dual-mode or Pickett horn. The output 288GHz beam is then coupled to an aspheric lens manufactured from low-loss, high-density polyethylene. This lens is employed to collimate the emerging beam. Small axial adjustment of the lens position can also be used to create a slowly focusing beam so as to optimize the measured signal. In addition, up-down or side-to-side adjustment of the lens can be utilized to steer the beam vertically or horizontally – again to optimize alignment. The propagating beam passes through a beam splitter and then through a water-free, bubble-free fused quartz window into the LAPD-U vacuum vessel. The beam-splitter is a thin sheet of G10 which reflects a small fraction of the incident power (~5 %) towards a zero-bias detector optimized for the frequency range from 220 to 300GHz. Note that waveguides at this frequency have dimensions of ~0.9mm x 0.45mm and so have very large conductive losses. This drives the use of quasi-optical propagation. The detector requires no DC bias and is very responsive (> 1V/mW into 1MΩ). Radiation is coupled to the detector via a similar lens-horn arrangement used for the launch. This reflected beam acts as the local oscillator or reference millimeter-wave beam for the detector. The remainder of the launched source beam then enters the LAPD-U vacuum vessel and passes through the plasma at the mid-plane until reaching the opposing port which is closed off with an aluminum flange. This flange is used as a mirror to retroreflect the incident 288GHz beam back along its path. The retroreflected beam exits the input port but does NOT couple directly into the zero-bias detector. Instead, the majority of the return power continues towards the 288GHz source. As mentioned above the transmitted beam enters the source a second time. This would appear undesirable. However, at these frequencies multipliers are highly non-linear elements which results in a significant portion of the return beam (~20%) re-emerging from the multiplier and horn and then coupling via the G10 beam-splitter to the zero-bias detector. This approach eliminated the need for a second quasi-optical beam-splitter. The system is extremely compact measuring approximately 28 inches x 20 inches. The above did not explain how heterodyne operation was achieved. As mentioned above the Gunn oscillator is able to be varactor tuned. This allows a low voltage to be applied to control the operating frequency of the Gunn oscillator. During heterodyne operation a sawtooth shaped voltage is applied to the varactor at 750kHz using an 80MHz Arbitrary Waveform Generator (AWG). This voltage changes the Gunn frequency linearly during the up-sweep which is then reset abruptly at the sawtooth crash to be immediately followed by another linear sweep. Passage through the 288GHz multiplier triples the frequency change experienced by the electromagnetic wave. These frequency changes are small – tens of megahertz. This FM radar approach results in the launched electromagnetic wave frequencies at the detector for the reference and plasma wave to be different. The approximately 10 ns delay propagation delay for the plasma beam results in the local oscillator and plasma beams NOT having an identical frequency – there is in fact a fixed difference frequency. The frequency tuning level of the Gunn oscillator is then adjusted so that there is ONE cycle of this difference frequency during each linear ramp. During the sawtooth crash or downward re-sweep this one cycle replays in reverse but on a very fast timescale. The process then repeats. Low-pass filtering eliminates the fast re-sweep to leave a pure sine wave heterodyne signal. When the plasma is present it introduces a phase delay in the sine wave (caused by the extremely small Doppler shift resulting from the optical path length change). Of course, to measure this phase change we need a reference. This is simply obtained from an arbitrary waveform generator which provides a synchronized output pulse train which again is low pass filtered to obtain a 750kHz sinusoidal voltage reference for the interferometer. The interferometer was installed on LAPD-U where it has worked reliably and has established that electron densities exceeding 1x10 13 cm -3 are routinely achieved. In addition, the system sensitivity was able to easily observe density fluctuation at frequencies up to 50kHz. FM Radar techniques have enabled a full demonstration of a compact, sensitive, high frequency (288GHz/1mm) heterodyne interferometer.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗