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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Systematic Errors in Simulated L-Band Brightness Temperature in the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture Analysis

The NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission has been providing L-band (1.4 GHz) brightness temperature (Tb) observations since April 2015. By assimilating the Tb observations into the NASA Catchment land surface model using a spatially distributed ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the SMAP Level-4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product provides global, 3-hourly, 9-km resolution estimates of surface (0-5 cm) and root-zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture with ~2.5-day latency for use in research and applications. The EnKF-based L4_SM analysis assumes unbiased forecast errors. Consequently, the seasonally varying bias between the model forecast Tb and the observed values is removed prior to the assimilation of the SMAP Tb observations. The L4_SM system is thus designed to only correct errors in synoptic-scale and interannual variations from the long-term mean seasonal cycle while maintaining the model’s (possibly wrong) climatology. In this paper, we examine the Tb observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals from the L4_SM Version 7 product (computed after rescaling the Tb observations to the mean seasonal cycle of the simulated Tb). The long-term average of the Tb O-F residuals has a global mean of only 0.13 K and locally small values, ranging from -1 to 3 K. The model forecast Tb, however, still exhibits undesirable systematic errors relative to the (rescaled) Tb observations. At some locations, the time-average Tb O-F values strongly depend on surface soil moisture (SM). At the Yanco SMAP core validation site, for example, the Tb O-F residuals typically range from 5 to 15 K under dry soil moisture conditions (SM < 0.15 m3 m-3) yet are predominantly negative under wet soil moisture conditions (SM > 0.25 m3 m-3), with values ranging from 0 to -40 K. This results in soil moisture analysis increments that persistently make the soil drier under dry SM conditions and persistently make the soil wetter under wet SM conditions, suggesting an error in the dynamic range of the simulated Tb, soil moisture or soil temperature. In this paper, we describe the higher-order systematic Tb forecast errors in more detail, examine their impact on the L4_SM product quality, and explore potential avenues to improve the L4_SM algorithm.

Rolf Reichle↗
NASA NTRS2015

Differing Air Traffic Controller Responses to Similar Trajectory Prediction Errors: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of Controller Behavior

A Human-In-The-Loop simulation was conducted in January of 2013 in the Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASAs Ames Research Center. The simulation airspace included two en route sectors feeding the northwest corner of Atlantas Terminal Radar Approach Control. The focus of this paper is on how uncertainties in the studys trajectory predictions impacted the controllers ability to perform their duties. Of particular interest is how the controllers interacted with the delay information displayed in the meter list and data block while managing the arrival flows. Due to wind forecasts with 20-knot over-predictions and 20-knot under-predictions, delay value computations included errors of similar magnitude, albeit in opposite directions. However, when performing their duties in the presence of these errors, did the controllers issue clearances of similar magnitude, albeit in opposite directions?

human-automation interaction↗
NASA NTRS2010

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

da Silva, Arlindo↗
NASA NTRS2015

Preliminary Analysis of Effect of Random Segment Errors on Coronagraph Performance

Are we alone in the Universe is probably the most compelling science question of our generation. To answer it requires a large aperture telescope with extreme wavefront stability. To image and characterize Earth-like planets requires the ability to block 10(exp 10) of the host stars light with a 10(exp -11) stability. For an internal coronagraph, this requires correcting wavefront errors and keeping that correction stable to a few picometers rms for the duration of the science observation. This requirement places severe specifications upon the performance of the observatory, telescope and primary mirror. A key task of the AMTD project (initiated in FY12) is to define telescope level specifications traceable to science requirements and flow those specifications to the primary mirror. From a systems perspective, probably the most important question is: What is the telescope wavefront stability specification? Previously, we suggested this specification should be 10 picometers per 10 minutes; considered issues of how this specification relates to architecture, i.e. monolithic or segmented primary mirror; and asked whether it was better to have few or many segmented. This paper reviews the 10 picometers per 10 minutes specification; provides analysis related to the application of this specification to segmented apertures; and suggests that a 3 or 4 ring segmented aperture is more sensitive to segment rigid body motion that an aperture with fewer or more segments.

Stahl, Mark T.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Relative rate constants for the reactions of atomic oxygen with HO2 anad OH radicals

Relative rate constants for the reactions O + HO2 - OH + O2 (1) and O + OH - H + O2 (2) were obtained by using the discharge-flow resonance fluorescence technique at 2 torr total pressure and 299 K. HO2 radicals were generated by reacting atomic hydrogen with an excess of O2. Quasi-steady-state concentrations of OH and HO2 were established in the presence of excess atomic oxygen. Observed concentration ratios, namely the ratio of the OH concentration to the HO2 concentration, resulted in a value of 1.7 + or 0.2 for k1/k2. The error limits are twice the standard deviation obtained from the data analysis. Overall experimental error is estimated to be + or - 25 percent. This result confirms earlier direct measurements of k1 and k2 which required knowledge of absolute radical or atomic oxygen concentrations.

Keyser, L. F.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Uncertainty Reduction in Power Generation Forecast Using Coupled Wavelet-ARIMA

In this paper, we introduce a new approach without implying normal distributions and stationarity of power generation forecast errors. In addition, it is desired to more accurately quantify the forecast uncertainty by reducing prediction intervals of forecasts. We use automatically coupled wavelet transform and autoregressive integrated moving-average (ARIMA) forecasting to reflect multi-scale variability of forecast errors. The proposed analysis reveals slow-changing “quasi-deterministic” components of forecast errors. This helps improve forecasts produced by other means, e.g., using weather-based models, and reduce forecast errors prediction intervals.

Power system planning, uncertainty reduction, fore↗
NASA NTRS1987

Error estimates for cell-vertex solutions of the compressible Euler equations

The cell-vertex schemes due to Ni and Jameson, et al. have been subjected to a theoretical analysis of their truncation error. The analysis confirms the authors' claims for second-order accuracy on smooth grids, but shows that the same accuracy cannot be obtained on arbitrary grids. It is shown that the schemes have a unique generalization to axisymmetric flow that preserves the second-order accuracy.

Roe, P. L.↗
DOE OSTI2013

Precise measurement of the transverse piezoelectric coefficient for thin films on anisotropic substrate

In this study, we propose a reliable measurement method for the effective transverse piezoelectric coefficient for thin films especially on anisotropic substrate. This coefficient for piezoelectric Pb(Zr, Ti)O{sub 3} (PZT) thin films was calculated by measuring the electric field-induced tip displacement of unimorph cantilevers composed of PZT thin films and Si substrates. We evaluated the reliability of the proposed measurement method by comparing it with numerical analysis and confirmed that the relative error of the piezoelectric coefficient (e{sub 31,f}) was less than 1%. We prepared 16 different unimorph cantilevers composed of identical PZT films on different Si beam geometries that had various substrate thicknesses and cantilever widths. Although the effective transverse piezoelectric coefficient e{sub 31,f} of PZT thin films ranged from -6.5 to -14 C/m{sup 2} as a function of the applied voltage, the difference among the 16 samples with an applied voltage of 25 V was within 10%. These results demonstrate that the proposed measurement method has sufficient reliability and can be used to evaluate the effective transverse piezoelectric coefficient e{sub 31,f} of thin films.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2013

Real-time catheter tracking for high-dose-rate prostate brachytherapy using an electromagnetic 3D-guidance device: A preliminary performance study

Purpose: In order to increase the accuracy and speed of catheter reconstruction in a high-dose-rate (HDR) prostate implant procedure, an automatic tracking system has been developed using an electromagnetic (EM) device (trakSTAR, Ascension Technology, VT). The performance of the system, including the accuracy and noise level with various tracking parameters and conditions, were investigated. Methods: A direct current (dc) EM transmitter (midrange model) and a sensor with diameter of 1.3 mm (Model 130) were used in the trakSTAR system for tracking catheter position during HDR prostate brachytherapy. Localization accuracy was assessed under both static and dynamic analyses conditions. For the static analysis, a calibration phantom was used to investigate error dependency on operating room (OR) table height (bottom vs midposition vs top), sensor position (distal tip of catheter vs connector end of catheter), direction [left-right (LR) vs anterior-posterior (AP) vs superior-inferior (SI)], sampling frequency (40 vs 80 vs 120 Hz), and interference from OR equipment (present vs absent). The mean and standard deviation of the localization offset in each direction and the corresponding error vectors were calculated. For dynamic analysis, the paths of five straight catheters were tracked to study the effects of directions, sampling frequency, and interference of EM field. Statistical analysis was conducted to compare the results in different configurations. Results: When interference was present in the static analysis, the error vectors were significantly higher at the top table position (3.3 {+-} 1.3 vs 1.8 {+-} 0.9 mm at bottom and 1.7 {+-} 1.0 mm at middle, p < 0.001), at catheter end position (3.1 {+-} 1.1 vs 1.4 {+-} 0.7 mm at the tip position, p < 0.001), and at 40 Hz sampling frequency (2.6 {+-} 1.1 vs 2.4 {+-} 1.5 mm at 80 Hz and 1.8 {+-} 1.1 at 160 Hz, p < 0.001). So did the mean offset errors in the LR direction (-1.7 {+-} 1.4 vs 0.4 {+-} 0.5 mm in AP and 0.8 {+-} 0.8 mm in SI directions, p < 0.001). The error vectors were significantly higher with surrounding interference (2.2 {+-} 1.3 mm) vs without interference (1.0 {+-} 0.7 mm, p < 0.001). An accuracy of 1.6 {+-} 0.2 mm can be reached when using optimum configuration (160 Hz at middle table position). When interference was present in the dynamic tracking, the mean tracking errors in LR direction (1.4 {+-} 0.5 mm) was significantly higher than that in AP direction (0.3 {+-} 0.2 mm, p < 0.001). So did the mean vector errors at 40 Hz (2.1 {+-} 0.2 mm vs 1.3 {+-} 0.2 mm at 80 Hz and 0.9 {+-} 0.2 mm at 160 Hz, p < 0.05). However, when interference was absent, they were comparable in the both directions and at all sampling frequencies. An accuracy of 0.9 {+-} 0.2 mm was obtained for the dynamic tracking when using optimum configuration. Conclusions: The performance of an EM tracking system depends highly on the system configuration and surrounding environment. The accuracy of EM tracking for catheter reconstruction in a prostate HDR brachytherapy procedure can be improved by reducing interference from surrounding equipment, decreasing distance from transmitter to tracking area, and choosing appropriated sampling frequency. A calibration scheme is needed to further reduce the tracking error when the interference is high.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2015

Solving the Big Data (BD) Problem in Advanced Manufacturing (Subcategory for work done at Georgia Tech. Study Process and Design Factors for Additive Manufacturing Improvement)

3D printing originally known as additive manufacturing is a process of making 3 dimensional solid objects from a CAD file. This ground breaking technology is widely used for industrial and biomedical purposes such as building objects, tools, body parts and cosmetics. An important benefit of 3D printing is the cost reduction and manufacturing flexibility; complex parts are built at the fraction of the price. However, layer by layer printing of complex shapes adds error due to the surface roughness. Any such error results in poor quality products with inaccurate dimensions. The main purpose of this research is to measure the amount of printing errors for parts with different geometric shapes and to analyze them for finding optimal printing settings to minimize the error. We use a Design of Experiments framework, and focus on studying parts with cone and ellipsoid shapes. We found that the orientation and the shape of geometric shapes have significant effect on the printing error. From our analysis, we also determined the optimal orientation that gives the least printing error.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1975

An analysis of spacecraft data time tagging errors

An indepth examination of the timing and telemetry in just one spacecraft points out the genesis of various types of timing errors and serves as a guide in the design of future timing/telemetry systems. The principal sources of timing errors are examined carefully and are described in detail. Estimates of these errors are also made and presented. It is found that the timing errors within the telemetry system are larger than the total timing errors resulting from all other sources.

Fang, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS1985

An analysis of the effects of coincident errors on multi-version software

The present study is concerned with the application of a model which provides a basis for analytical investigations of redundant software. The model links certain basic quantities with the experimental process of testing independently designed software components. The model is employed to provide insight into the effects of coincident errors on an N-version software structure in which the structure fails if at least a majority of its components fail. Attention is given to coincident errors, the intensity distribution for coincident errors, the coincident errors model, and a condition for redundancy to improve reliability.

Eckhardt, D. E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Input error versus output error model reference adaptive control

Algorithms for model reference adaptive control were developed in recent years, and their stability and convergence properties have been investigated. Typical algorithms in continuous time involve strictly positive real conditions on the reference model, while similar discrete time algorithms do not require such conditions. It is shown how algorithms differ by the use of an input error versus an output error, and present a continuous time input error adaptive control algorithm which does not involve SPR conditions. The connections with other schemes are discussed. The input error scheme has general stability and ocnvergence properties that are similar to the output error scheme. However, analysis using averaging methods reveals some preferable convergence properties of the input error scheme. Several other advantages are also discussed.

Bodson, Marc↗
NASA NTRS2011

Quantifying Errors in TRMM-Based Multi-Sensor QPE Products Over Land in Preparation for GPM

Determining uncertainties in satellite-based multi-sensor quantitative precipitation estimates over land of fundamental importance to both data producers and hydro climatological applications. ,Evaluating TRMM-era products also lays the groundwork and sets the direction for algorithm and applications development for future missions including GPM. QPE uncertainties result mostly from the interplay of systematic errors and random errors. In this work, we will synthesize our recent results quantifying the error characteristics of satellite-based precipitation estimates. Both systematic errors and total uncertainties have been analyzed for six different TRMM-era precipitation products (3B42, 3B42RT, CMORPH, PERSIANN, NRL and GSMap). For systematic errors, we devised an error decomposition scheme to separate errors in precipitation estimates into three independent components, hit biases, missed precipitation and false precipitation. This decomposition scheme reveals hydroclimatologically-relevant error features and provides a better link to the error sources than conventional analysis, because in the latter these error components tend to cancel one another when aggregated or averaged in space or time. For the random errors, we calculated the measurement spread from the ensemble of these six quasi-independent products, and thus produced a global map of measurement uncertainties. The map yields a global view of the error characteristics and their regional and seasonal variations, reveals many undocumented error features over areas with no validation data available, and provides better guidance to global assimilation of satellite-based precipitation data. Insights gained from these results and how they could help with GPM will be highlighted.

Peters-Lidard, Christa D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Identifying Human Errors and Error Mechanisms From Accident Reports Using Large Language Models

Emerging operational concepts for aviation hinge on novel paradigms for human machine interaction. Critical to their safe operation is early consideration of human error into the design process. Existing methods for consideration of human error require significant expert input, which is challenging both in early design and in novel systems for which there is little existing safety expertise. In this research, we propose a methodology for identifying human error, error producing factors, and mechanisms in early design from historical incident reports. Additionally, we hypothesize that cross-domain sharing of lessons learned can aid with early design human considerations in circumstances where data is not relevant or incomplete. This is addressed by identifying causes of human error in aviation and railway domains through applying state-of-the art natural language processing techniques to historical incident reports. Using this method, it is possible to extract extensive reports on human error from past incidents. Using the proposed approach, we identify nine human errors from railway reports and fourteen from aviation reports, with three errors common to both domains. There is at least one error producing conditions for each human error while a majority of the errors have more than one error mechanism. We also found that a majority of the human errors, error producing factors, and error mechanisms (even if they are not common between the domains) can be used to inform safe operations across domains as long as the errors are not domain specific and are interpreted and contextualized using engineering judgement.

Human Errors↗