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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Applications of LIF to Document Natural Variability of Chlorophyll Content and Cu Uptake in Moss

Chlorophyll has long been used as a natural indicator of plant health and photosynthetic efficiency. Laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) is an emerging technique for understanding broad spectrum organic processes and has more recently been used to monitor chlorophyll response in plants. Previous work has focused on developing a LIF technique for imaging moss mats to identify metal contamination with the current focus shifting toward application to moss fronds and aiding sample collection for chemical analysis. Two laser systems (CoCoBi a Nd:YGa pulsed laser system and Chl-SL with two blue continuous semiconductor diodes) were used to collect images of moss fronds exposed to increasing levels of Cu (1, 10, and 100 nmol/cm 2 ) using a CMOS camera. The best methods for the preprocessing of images were conducted before the analysis of fluorescence signatures were compared to a control. The Chl-SL system performed better than the CoCoBi, with dynamic time warping (DTW) proving the most effective for image analysis. Manual thresholding to remove lower decimal code values improved the data distributions and proved whether using one or two fronds in an image was more advantageous. A higher DTW difference from the control correlated to lower chlorophyll a/b ratios and a higher metal content, indicating that LIF, with the aid of image processing, can be an effective technique for identifying Cu contamination shortly after an event.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Intermediate Levels of Autonomy within the SSM/PMAD Breadboard

The Space Station Module Power Management and Distribution (SSM/PMAD) bread-board is a test bed for the development of advanced power system control and automation. Software control in the SSM/PMAD breadboard is through co-operating systems, called Autonomous Agents. Agents can be a mixture of algorithmic software and expert systems. The early SSM/PMAD system was envisioned as being completely autonomous. It soon became apparent, though, that there would always be a need for human intervention, at least as long as a human interacts with the system in any way. In a system designed only for autonomous operation, manual intervention meant taking full control of the whole system, and loosing whatever expertise was in the system. Several methods for allowing humans to interact at an appropriate level of control were developed. This paper examines some of these intermediate modes of autonomy. The least humanly intrusive mode is simple monitoring. The ability to modify future behavior by altering a schedule involves high-level interaction. Modification of operating activities comes next. The coarsest mode of control is individual, unplanned operation of individual Power System components. Each of these levels is integrated into the SSM/PMAD breadboard, with support for the user (such as warnings of the consequences of control decisions) at every level.

Dugal-Whitehead, Norma R.↗

Performance of a Regenerative Fuel Cell System for the Lunar Surface

Regenerative fuel cells (RFCs) are an attractive energy storage solution for lunar missions as a technology capable of providing a higher specific energy (i.e., W∙h/kg) than state-of-the-art packaged Li-ion battery systems. An RFC consists of the (1 & 2) electrochemical stacks (chemical to electrical energy conversion to supply electricity to an external load, i.e. the fuel cell reaction, and electrical to chemical energy conversion of supplied electrical power to dissociate water into hydrogen and oxygen gases, i.e. water electrolysis), (3) fluidic conditioning, (4) reactant storage, (5) avionics, (6) power management and distribution (PMAD), and (7) thermal management. NASA’s Glenn Research Center has designed, assembled, and tested a breadboard RFC sys-tem capable of operating autonomously for multiple simulated lunar day/night cycles in a laboratory environment. The system is comprised of a non-flow through proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell stack and a liquid-anode feed PEM electrolyzer (EZ) stack designed to electrochemically compress the reactants at balanced pressures up to 12.4 MPa (1800 psia). The fluidic conditioning, avionics, PMAD, and thermal management sub-systems are largely comprised of commercial-off-the-shelf components for this system-level development effort. The hardware is controlled by a CubeSat space processor running an operational program based on core flight architecture that can control the RFC hardware autonomously through a state machine with fault monitoring. The testing results highlighted here were completed with the system in an open-loop configuration such that reactants generated through water electrolysis were vented while gas cylinders supplied fuel cell operation. The breadboard operated autonomously, but there were five unplanned transitions to a safe state that required a manual restart after reviewing the data, determining a root cause, and implementing a solution. Four of the transitions were caused by the thermal management subsystem and the fifth was caused by a water management control issue in the EZ sub-system. The RFC system operated for over 550 hours with the final cycle being slightly abbreviated due to reasons unrelated to system performance.

Kerrigan Cain↗

Performance of a Regenerative Fuel Cell System for the Lunar Surface

Regenerative fuel cells (RFCs) are an attractive energy storage solution for lunar missions as a technology capable of providing a higher specific energy (i.e., W∙h/kg) than state-of-the-art packaged Li-ion battery systems. An RFC consists of the (1 & 2) electrochemical stacks (chemical to electrical energy conversion to supply electricity to an external load, i.e. the fuel cell reaction, and electrical to chemical energy conversion of supplied electrical power to dissociate water into hydrogen and oxygen gases, i.e. water electrolysis), (3) fluidic conditioning, (4) reactant storage, (5) avionics, (6) power management and distribution (PMAD), and (7) thermal management. NASA’s Glenn Research Center has designed, assembled, and tested a breadboard RFC sys-tem capable of operating autonomously for multiple simulated lunar day/night cycles in a laboratory environment. The system is comprised of a non-flow through proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cell stack and a liquid-anode feed PEM electrolyzer (EZ) stack designed to electrochemically compress the reactants at balanced pressures up to 12.4 MPa (1800 psia). The fluidic conditioning, avionics, PMAD, and thermal management sub-systems are largely comprised of commercial-off-the-shelf components for this system-level development effort. The hardware is controlled by a CubeSat space processor running an operational program based on core flight architecture that can control the RFC hardware autonomously through a state machine with fault monitoring. The testing results highlighted here were completed with the system in an open-loop configuration such that reactants generated through water electrolysis were vented while gas cylinders supplied fuel cell operation. The breadboard operated autonomously, but there were five unplanned transitions to a safe state that required a manual restart after reviewing the data, determining a root cause, and implementing a solution. Four of the transitions were caused by the thermal management subsystem and the fifth was caused by a water management control issue in the EZ sub-system. The RFC system operated for over 550 hours with the final cycle being slightly abbreviated due to reasons unrelated to system performance.

Kerrigan Cain↗

Digital Assurance for Grid Reliability in the Era of Large Load Growth

The rapid expansion of large electric loads is reshaping the operational and regulatory landscape of the U.S. electric grid. These facilities are reaching new scales of expansion, now exceeding a gigawatt per site, and their highly sensitive, digitally driven behaviors introduce new reliability risks. Recent grid events, including large load losses following routine transmission disturbances, highlight the consequences of limited ride-through capability, inconsistent protection settings, inadequate modeling, and lack of behind-the-meter visibility. Parallels to earlier integration challenges of new grid technologies suggest that the grid’s existing processes, standards, and interconnection frameworks are no longer adequate for emerging large loads. This brief synthesizes lessons from the evolution of inverter-based resource regulation and applies them to large-load integration. It identifies critical gaps in modeling accuracy, interconnection processes, performance standards, and compliance mechanisms. Technical recommendations emphasize advanced monitoring, improved modeling, coordinated communication protocols, modernized substations, and structured behind-the-meter control schemes. Collectively, these measures provide a roadmap to maintain bulk power system reliability while enabling the continued growth of large, electrified digital infrastructure.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The CMS Barrel Calorimeter Processor demonstrator (BCPv1) board evaluation

For the CERN LHC phase 2, the barrel region of the CMS electromagnetic (ECAL EB) and hadronic calorimeters (HCAL HB) require new back-end electronics for their readout. To this purpose, a first version of the ATCA-based blade, the Barrel Calorimeter Processor (BCPv1), has been developed. The performance of the optical links as well as clock distribution are also presented here. Here, the BCPv1 has been tested together with front-end and trigger boards, as well as with the new DAQ and TCDS Hub (DTH) [1], to demonstrate that the BCPv1 meets the required specifications.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Feature Extraction for Pipeline Defects Inspection Based Upon Distributed Acoustic Fiber Optic Sensing Data

Fiber-optic distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) is becoming an increasingly important tool for real-time monitoring of energy and civil infrastructure structural health such as pipelines. We present a systematic theoretical study of the potential for DAS to be directly coupled with guided ultrasonic waves typically used in conventional acoustic non-destructive evaluation (NDE) methods for real-time pipeline health monitoring. We are referring to this innovative new NDE technique as ultrasonic guided wave and optical fiber sensor fusion. In the practical application of DAS coupled with guided ultrasonic waves, the structural design of (1) the specific guided waves excited, (2) the physical installation of the acoustic transducers and the fiber optic sensors, and (3) the functional performance specifications (gauge length, sensitivity, Etc.) of fiber optic DAS have an important influence on overall capabilities of the monitoring system. Meanwhile, physics-based analysis of acoustic waves is still a challenge due to the complex nature of the Lamb wave when it propagates, scatters, and disperses in the presence of structural defects. In this work, we simulate carbon steel pipes relevant for oil and gas pipeline applications with diameters of approximately 6-12” and wall thickness of 0.5” as the objects to be monitored. By establishing and implementing these capabilities, we seek to pursue an in-depth study on structural parameter optimization of DAS network, measurement range, and signal processing with an ultimate goal of increasing the sensitivity and efficacy of DAS to defect identification for various modes of corrosion expected in practice. To study the characteristics of scattered acoustic waves and performance of DAS for defect identification, we simulated the response of DAS for multiple pipe structures, defect types, and DAS sensor network configuration using finite element software Ansys, then the properties of signal response are extracted to construct defect-sensitive features. The raw data simulated, and the associated features extracted can ultimately be utilized as annotated training data to benchmark various designs for DAS applications, guided acoustic excitation sources, and learning model parameters to enhance early detection of potentially problematic defects.

Pipeline Defects Inspection, Fiber-optic sensors, ↗

LiDAR-Aided Interior Orientation Parameters Refinement Strategy for Consumer-Grade Cameras Onboard UAV Remote Sensing Systems

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are quickly emerging as a popular platform for 3D reconstruction/modeling in various applications such as precision agriculture, coastal monitoring, and emergency management. For such applications, LiDAR and frame cameras are the two most commonly used sensors for 3D mapping of the object space. For example, point clouds for the area of interest can be directly derived from LiDAR sensors onboard UAVs equipped with integrated global navigation satellite systems and inertial navigation systems (GNSS/INS). Imagery-based mapping, on the other hand, is considered to be a cost-effective and practical option and is often conducted by generating point clouds and orthophotos using structure from motion (SfM) techniques. Mapping with photogrammetric approaches requires accurate camera interior orientation parameters (IOPs), especially when direct georeferencing is utilized. Most state-of-the-art approaches for determining/refining camera IOPs depend on ground control points (GCPs). However, establishing GCPs is expensive and labor-intensive, and more importantly, the distribution and number of GCPs are usually less than optimal to provide adequate control for determining and/or refining camera IOPs. Moreover, consumer-grade cameras with unstable IOPs have been widely used for mapping applications. Therefore, in such scenarios, where frequent camera calibration or IOP refinement is required, GCP-based approaches are impractical. To eliminate the need for GCPs, this study uses LiDAR data as a reference surface to perform in situ refinement of camera IOPs. The proposed refinement strategy is conducted in three main steps. An image-based sparse point cloud is first generated via a GNSS/INS-assisted SfM strategy. Then, LiDAR points corresponding to the resultant image-based sparse point cloud are identified through an iterative plane fitting approach and are referred to as LiDAR control points (LCPs). Finally, IOPs of the utilized camera are refined through a GNSS/INS-assisted bundle adjustment procedure using LCPs. Seven datasets over two study sites with a variety of geomorphic features are used to evaluate the performance of the developed strategy. The results illustrate the ability of the proposed approach to achieve an object space absolute accuracy of 3–5 cm (i.e., 5–10 times the ground sampling distance) at a 41 m flying height.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Agent Based Software for the Autonomous Control of Formation Flying Spacecraft

Distributed satellite systems is an enabling technology for many future NASA/DoD earth and space science missions, such as MMS, MAXIM, Leonardo, and LISA [1, 2, 3]. While formation flying offers significant science benefits, to reduce the operating costs for these missions it will be essential that these multiple vehicles effectively act as a single spacecraft by performing coordinated observations. Autonomous guidance, navigation, and control as part of a coordinated fleet-autonomy is a key technology that will help accomplish this complex goal. This is no small task, as most current space missions require significant input from the ground for even relatively simple decisions such as thruster burns. Work for the NMP DS1 mission focused on the development of the New Millennium Remote Agent (NMRA) architecture for autonomous spacecraft control systems. NMRA integrates traditional real-time monitoring and control with components for constraint-based planning, robust multi-threaded execution, and model-based diagnosis and reconfiguration. The complexity of using an autonomous approach for space flight software was evident when most of its capabilities were stripped off prior to launch (although more capability was uplinked subsequently, and the resulting demonstration was very successful).

How, Jonathan P.↗

Global Lightning Activity

Our knowledge of the global distribution of lightning has improved dramatically since the advent of spacebased lightning observations. Of major importance was the 1995 launch of the Optical Transient Detector (OTD), followed in 1997 by the launch of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Together, these instruments have generated a continuous eight-year record of global lightning activity. These lightning observations have provided a new global perspective on total lightning activity. For the first time, total lightning activity (cloud-to-ground and intra-cloud) has been observed over large regions with high detection efficiency and accurate geographic location. This has produced new insights into lightning distributions, times of occurrence and variability. It has produced a revised global flash rate estimate (44 flashes per second) and has lead to a new realization of the significance of total lightning activity in severe weather. Accurate flash rate estimates are now available over large areas of the earth (+/- 72 deg. latitude). Ocean-land contrasts as a function of season are clearly reveled, as are orographic effects and seasonal and interannual variability. The space-based observations indicate that air mass thunderstorms, not large storm system dominate global activity. The ability of LIS and OTD to detect total lightning has lead to improved insight into the correlation between lightning and storm development. The relationship between updraft development and lightning activity is now well established and presents an opportunity for providing a new mechanism for remotely monitoring storm development. In this concept, lightning would serve as a surrogate for updraft velocity. It is anticipated that this capability could lead to significantly improved severe weather warning times and reduced false warning rates. This talk will summarize our space-based lightning measurements, will discuss how lightning observations can be used to monitor severe weather, and present a concept for continuous geostationary-based lightning observations.

Christian, Hugh J.↗

Boundary Layer Control for Hypersonic Airbreathing Vehicles

Active and passive methods for tripping hypersonic boundary layers have been examined in NASA Langley Research Center wind tunnels using a Hyper-X model. This investigation assessed several concepts for forcing transition, including passive discrete roughness elements and active mass addition (or blowing), in the 20-Inch Mach 6 Air and the 31-Inch Mach 10 Air Tunnels. Heat transfer distributions obtained via phosphor thermography, shock system details, and surface streamline patterns were measured on a 0.333-scale model of the Hyper-X forebody. The comparisons between the active and passive methods for boundary layer control were conducted at test conditions that nearly match the Hyper-X nominal Mach 7 flight test-point of an angle-of-attack of 2-deg and length Reynolds number of 5.6 million. For passive roughness, the primary parametric variation was a range of trip heights within the calculated boundary layer thickness for several trip concepts. The passive roughness study resulted in a swept ramp configuration, scaled to be roughly 0.6 of the calculated boundary layer thickness, being selected for the Mach 7 flight vehicle. For the active blowing study, the manifold pressure was systematically varied (while monitoring the mass flow) for each configuration to determine the jet penetration height, with schlieren, and transition movement, with the phosphor system, for comparison to the passive results. All the blowing concepts tested, which included various rows of sonic orifices (holes), two- and three-dimensional slots, and random porosity, provided transition onset near the trip location with manifold stagnation pressures on the order of 40 times the model surface static pressure, which is adequate to ensure sonic jets. The present results indicate that the jet penetration height for blowing was roughly half the height required with passive roughness elements for an equivalent amount of transition movement.

Berry, Scott A.↗

Evaluation of an Interferometric Sensor for In-Space Detection of Gas Leaks

Space mission planning often involves long-term storage of volatile liquids or high-pressure gases. These may include cryogenic fuels and oxidizers, high-pressure gases, and life-support-critical consumables. The risk associated with the storage of fluids and gases in space systems has long been an issue and the ability to retain these fluids is often tied to mission success. A leak in the storage or distribution system can cause many different problems, including a simple, but mission endangering, loss of inventory or, in severe cases, unbalanced thrust loads on a flight vehicle. Cryogenic propellants are especially difficult to store, especially over a long duration. The propellant can boil off and be lost through the insulating walls of the tank or simple thermal cycling of the fittings, valves, and propellant feed lines may unseat seals allowing the fluid to escape. Current NASA missions call for long-duration in-space storage of propellants, oxidizers, and life support supplies. Leaks of a scale detectable through a pressure drop in the storage tank are often catastrophic and have long been the focus of ground-based mitigation efforts where redundant systems are often employed. However, there is presently no technology available for detecting and monitoring low-level, but still mission-endangering, gas leaks in space. Standard in-space gas detection methods either have a very limited pressure range over which they operate effectively or are limited to certain gases. Mass spectrometer systems are able to perform the detection tasks, but their size, mass and use of high voltage, which could potentially lead to an arc that ignites a combustible propellent, severely limit their usefulness in a space system. In this paper, we present results from testing of the light-based interferometric gas monitoring and leak detection sensor shown in Fig. 1. The output of the sensor is an interference fringe pattern that is a function of the gas density, and commensurate index of refraction, in the sample region. Changes in the density of gas cause the interference fringes to move across a photodiode detector, providing a temporal history of the leak. The sensor is fiber coupled and constructed from solid optics, allowing for placement almost anywhere on the spacecraft. It is also advantageous in that it consumes very little power and does not introduce an ignition source. Data are presented demonstrating the capability of the sensor to measure density variations in different gas species. In addition, the transient response of the sensor in vacuum is demonstrated. These data extend and improve upon the results previously presented by the authors in Ref. [1].

Polzin, Kurt A.↗

Distributed Fiber Sensors With High Spatial Resolution in Extreme Radiation Environments in Nuclear Reactor Cores

This paper is a comprehensive experimental report on the neutron radiation effects of distributed optical fiber sensors with enhanced Rayleigh scattering profiles in an in-pile environment. Femtosecond laser direct writing was used to inscribe Type-II modifications in standard telecom fibers and radiation-hardened fibers with fluorine-doped cores. Rayleigh backscattering signals were enhanced for continuous 1.5 m. In-pile lead-out sensors tests were carried out at the MIT Research Reactor for two months, which was operated at a nominal power of 5.7 MW with fast neutron (>0.1 MeV) flux of 1.29 × 1014 n/cm2/s and an in-core temperature of up to 560°C. Using the Optical Frequency Domain Reflectometry technique, the backscattering profiles of fiber sensors were interrogated with a 3-cm spatial resolution to monitor the temperature profile of the reactor. Results show that laser inscribed Type-II modifications in the form of nanogratings are highly stable against extreme temperature and ionizing radiation. Both standard telecom fibers and radiation-hardened fibers with laser-enhanced Rayleigh profiles can continuously perform distributed temperature measurements over the entire duration of the in-pile testing. Temperature coefficients of sensors and spectral shift quality were studied as functions of total radiation fluence. To the best of our knowledge, we present for the first time, the temperature profile of an operating nuclear reactor core with 3-cm spatial resolution, enabled by distributed fiber sensors with laser-enhanced Rayleigh scattering profiles. The high spatial resolution measurements can provide valuable data for the design and validation of digital twin and virtual reality of nuclear energy systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

NASA's Program to Monitor Orbital Debris in the GEO Belt and the General Problem of Measuring Near-Earth Object Orbits: Similarities and Differences

One of the goals for NASA s Orbital Debris Program Office has been to accurately characterize the population of debris in the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) environment. Most objects larger than about 1 meter in size are regularly tracked and catalogued by the US Space Surveillance System in the GEO regime. The consequence has been that most large intact GEO objects are tracked, but the vast majority of GEO debris fragments are not. Only in recent years have observations been dedicated to characterize the GEO debris population. NASA s efforts have concentrated on using wide field-of-view telescopes to make complete surveys of the GEO regime to better our statistical understanding of the GEO debris population. These telescopes operate in a staring mode, and only make limited short-arc measurements of the orbits. This information, while limited, allows the possibility of debiasing the observations and constructing statistical distributions of orbits in inclination and ascending node. Recent work suggests that we may be able to use statistical methods to estimate better orbit parameters despite the limited data. Both of these types of studies estimating statistical orbit distributions, and estimating accurate orbits using limited short-arc data have direct analogues in ongoing studies of near-Earth objects (NEO) such as asteroids and comets. This talk will describe the GEO study methods in use and being developed at NASA, and will discuss how such methods may or may not be applicable for NEO studies as well.

Matney, Mark↗

DIRAC current, upcoming and planned capabilities and technologies

DIRAC is the interware for building and operating large scale distributed computing systems. It is adopted by multiple collaborations from various scientific domains for implementing their computing models. DIRAC provides a framework and a rich set of ready-to-use services for Workload, Data and Production Management tasks of small, medium and large scientific communities having different computing requirements. The base functionality can be easily extended by custom components supporting community specific workflows. DIRAC is at the same time an aging project, and a new DiracX project is taking shape for replacing DIRAC in the long term. This contribution will highlight DIRAC’s current, upcoming and planned capabilities and technologies, and how the transition to DiracX will take place. Examples include, but are not limited to, adoption of security tokens and interactions with Identity Provider services, integration of Clouds and High Performance Computers, interface with Rucio, improved monitoring and deployment procedures.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA's Earth Observation Program: Past, Present and Future

The Earth Observing System (EOS) is a space-based observing system comprised of a series of satellite sensors by which scientists can monitor the Earth, a Data and Information System (EOSDIS) enabling researchers worldwide to access the satellite data, and an interdisciplinary science research program to interpret the satellite data. In this electronic theater presentation I will illustrate how scientists can learn about the Earth's atmosphere, land, oceans, and cryosphere from the vantage point of space-based global observations. This presentation will emphasize, but will not be limited to, Earth observations from space that highlight the ecosystem and environment of southern Africa, including: (i) dynamic geosynchronous satellite observations of southern Africa and nearby Indian Ocean, (ii) vegetation dynamics (normalized difference vegetation index and leaf area index), (iii) sea surface temperature, ocean topography, and surface winds over the Benguela and Agulhas Currents, (iv) Landsat 7 imagery of Cape Town, Etosha Pan, and other regions of southern Africa (v) fire distribution and dynamics in the Miombo woodland of Zambia, Angola, and Malawi, (vi) aerosol and cloud properties in southern Africa, and (vii) ice sheet distribution in and around Antarctica. We will illustrate these and other topics with a dynamic theater-style presentation, along with animations of satellite launch deployments and orbital mapping to highlight aspects of Earth observations from space.

King, Michael D.↗

Microwave Satellite Data for Hydrologic Modeling in Ungauged Basins

An innovative flood-prediction framework is developed using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation forcing and a proxy for river discharge from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) onboard the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aqua satellite. The AMSR-E-detected water surface signal was correlated with in situ measurements of streamflow in the Okavango Basin in Southern Africa as indicated by a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.90. A distributed hydrologic model, with structural data sets derived from remote-sensing data, was calibrated to yield simulations matching the flood frequencies from the AMSR-E-detected water surface signal. Model performance during a validation period yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.84. We concluded that remote-sensing data from microwave sensors could be used to supplement stream gauges in large sparsely gauged or ungauged basins to calibrate hydrologic models. Given the global availability of all required data sets, this approach can be potentially expanded to improve flood monitoring and prediction in sparsely gauged basins throughout the world

Distributed hydrologic modeling↗

Improving Computational Efficiency of Prognostics Algorithms in Resource-Constrained Settings

In engineering and aerospace applications, it is vital to operational success to have insight into the expected performance and health of physical systems. The field of prognostics and health management provides quantitative methods for monitoring, predicting, and managing system health. Prognostics algorithms can be employed to assess the current state of a system, propagate the system throughout time, and predict potential anomalies or failures that may occur. While they can provide accurate prediction results, effective prognostics algorithms can be challenging to use in resource-constrained settings due to computational limitations and high computational latency, leading to obsolete predictions. Thus, computationally efficient and accurate algorithms are necessary for future remaining useful life predictions. In this work, we implement new algorithmic approaches for prediction, quantitatively compare them via a battery degradation use-case, and provide recommendations of potential improvements to a prognostics framework. One approach to prediction is through sampling, whereby the current state of a physical system is sampled many times and each sample is propagated forward until failure is reached, resulting in a distribution of failure values. To improve the efficiency of this process, we implemented five new algorithmic approaches to prediction, including three distinct sampling methods (standard Monte Carlo, Quasi-Monte Carlo, and Latin Hypercube Sampling), a variable time step algorithm, and a variable sample size algorithm. To compare the algorithms, we employ a variety of metrics designed specifically to analyze both computational efficiency and model accuracy. Our metrics include accuracy to compare the average predicted value to ground truth, mean absolute deviation to illustrate dispersion, specific percentile error to describe accuracy within a user-defined risk tolerance, and code run-time. To quantitatively analyze our results, we employ a use-case of degradation of a Lithium-ion battery. We use an electrochemistry-based model to describe the current health state of the battery, and implement our prediction algorithms to propagate forward in time until end-of-discharge (EOD) is reached. Notably, through this work it was found that none of our sampling approaches had a significant impact on computational efficiency or model accuracy in predicting EOD of the battery. We find that while the sampling methods are unique, the distributions they generate are similar, ultimately producing final predictions that are nearly identical. In exploring the effect of the time step within the prediction algorithm, we found that prediction accuracy was highly dependent on the time step used, and that implementing a variable time step within a particular prediction may provide an increase in computational efficiency while also maintaining prediction accuracy. Finally, implementing a variable sample size also affected prediction, and our results show that tuning both the magnitude and timing of the sample size adjustment can result in improved computation speed and maintained prediction accuracy. Taken together, our findings highlight the challenge of performing prognostics in resource-constrained settings, and illustrate the potential of developing new prediction algorithms to improve computational efficiency.

prognostics↗