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Results for “dependability modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,405 records · Page 78
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of methane and black carbon mitigation on forcing and temperature: a multi-model scenario analysis

The relatively short atmospheric lifetimes of methane (CH 4 ) and black carbon (BC) have focused attention on the potential for reducing anthropogenic climate change by reducing Short-Lived Climate Forcer (SLCF) emissions. This paper examines radiative forcing and global mean temperature results from the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 multi-model suite of scenarios addressing CH 4 and BC mitigation, the two major short-lived climate forcers. Central estimates of temperature reductions in 2040 from an idealized scenario focused on reductions in methane and black carbon emissions ranged from 0.18–0.26 °C across the nine participating models. Reductions in methane emissions drive 60% or more of these temperature reductions by 2040, although the methane impact also depends on auxiliary reductions that depend on the economic structure of the model. Climate model parameter uncertainty has a large impact on results, with SLCF reductions resulting in as much as 0.3–0.7 °C by 2040. We find that the substantial overlap between a SLCF-focused policy and a stringent and comprehensive climate policy that reduces greenhouse gas emissions means that additional SLCF emission reductions result in, at most, a small additional benefit of ~ 0.1 °C in the 2030–2040 time frame.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Visualizing time-dependent microstructural and chemical evolution during molten salt corrosion of Ni-20Cr model alloy using correlative quasi in situ TEM and in situ synchrotron X-ray nano-tomography

In situ monitoring of corrosion processes is important to fundamentally understand the kinetics and evolution of materials in harsh environments. A quasi in situ transmission electron microscopy technique was utilized to study microstructural and chemical evolution of a Ni-20Cr disc sample 6 exposed to molten KCl-MgCl 2 salt for 60 s in consecutive 20 s iterations. In situ synchrotron X-ray nano-tomography was performed to characterize the morphological evolution of a Ni-20Cr microwire exposed to molten KCl-MgCl 2 . Here, both techniques captured key corrosion events and revealed mechanisms at different time and length scales, potentially bringing greater insights and 10 deeper understanding beyond conventional analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

An Initial Microstructurally Informed Model of High Burnup Structure Formation in UO 2 Fuel

The microstructure of a UO 2 fuel pellet changes as burnup increases, impacting fuel performance. Predicting and characterizing high burnup structure (HBS) and dark zone formation is a key part of supporting burnup limit extensions for light water reactors. This paper describes a model developed through fitting radially resolved pellet data obtained from recently published microstructural characterization data. The model predicts grain size and grain character, in addition to pore density and size, with fitting dependencies on power history variables. Separately fitting power history variables to microstructural parameters allows for insight into the underlying physical phenomena for future model development. Additionally, experimental data have been correlated to an HBS fraction to facilitate the development of a model capable of predicting a total fuel restructured fraction at the engineering scale. In conclusion, this two-step approach provides a coupling from reactor power history to microstructural data to fractional HBS and creates a basis to model HBS-dependent parameters in a fuel performance code.

High burnup structure↗
DOE OSTI2026

QCalEval: Benchmarking Vision-Language Models for Quantum Calibration Plot Understanding

Quantum computing calibration depends on interpreting experimental data, and calibration plots provide the most universal human-readable representation for this task, yet no systematic evaluation exists of how well vision-language models (VLMs) interpret them. We introduce QCalEval, the first VLM benchmark for quantum calibration plots: 243 samples across 87 scenario types from 22 experiment families, spanning superconducting qubits and neutral atoms, evaluated on six question types in both zero-shot and in-context learning settings. The best general-purpose zero-shot model reaches a mean score of 72.3, and many open-weight models degrade under multi-image in-context learning, whereas frontier closed models improve substantially. A supervised fine-tuning ablation at the 9-billion-parameter scale shows that SFT improves zero-shot performance but cannot close the multimodal in-context learning gap. As a reference case study, we release NVIDIA Ising Calibration 1, an open-weight model based on Qwen3.5-35B-A3B that reaches 74.7 zero-shot average score.

Cao, Shuxiang↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Decarburization Kinetics of Metal Droplets in Emulsion Zone

Abstract:: A mathematical model has been developed to predict the decarburization rate within individual droplets in the emulsion zone. All the chronological events pertaining to the life cycle of a metal droplet in the emulsion zone like oxygen supply (from slag), external and internal decarburization have been modeled dynamically and validated against experimental data available in open literature. The bloating behavior of metal droplets in the emulsion was represented theoretically by incorporating an escape function dependent on internal CO gas generation. The model is able to predict the onset of bloating and the residence time of metal droplets in the emulsion zone. The residence time of droplet containing 2.6 wt pct C and 0.007 wt pct S is in the range of 10 to 13 seconds. The contribution of decarburization rate in the emulsion zone to the overall decarburization rate is studied using the industrial data reported by Cicutti et al. The model predicts 5 to 75 pct of total decarburization takes place in the emulsion zone. It is found that the extent of decarburization of a metal droplet depends on its initial carbon content rather than its oxygen content for slag containing FeO greater than 10 wt pct.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Induced Polarization of Clayey Rocks and Soils: Non‐Linear Complex Conductivity Models

Abstract The past decades have witnessed the increased applications of induced polarization (IP) method in the critical zone studies with ubiquitous clay minerals. Although IP outperforms traditional electrical and electromagnetic methods through its unique ability to measure quadrature conductivity, the nonlinearity that quadrature conductivity behaves with salinities and frequencies greatly tortures IP practitioners, as (a) salinity‐dependency makes the quadrature conductivity a varyingly unstable parameter to quantitatively estimate hydraulic properties and clay content; (b) frequency‐dependent Cole‐Cole and Debye/Warburg decomposition models, although mathematically sound, physically mingle the properties of pore water and clay minerals and are empirical in nature. From basic principles, we demonstrate that quadrature conductivity remains a hybrid property involving both clay and water, and develop relevant models to distinguish them. Our models are validated by theories, experiments, simulations, and comparisons, all of which proclaim considerable advantages over previous models and offer the prospect of quantitative applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Two–Dimensional Idealized Hadley Circulation Simulation for Global High Resolution Model Development

A new framework for the development of global high resolution models using a vertical- meridional, two-dimensional pole-to-pole domain is proposed. Compared with the three-dimensional global model, the two-dimensional framework can simulate cloud-scale convection at significantly reduced computational cost, data volume, and turn-around time, and accelerate the development phase. Although idealized, it allows for simulation of various clouds and scale interactions under a wide range of environmental conditions, even though zonal waves such as mid latitude storms cannot be simulated. Physics schemes can be tested and assessed over a full array of simultaneously occurring cloud regimes. The framework can serve as an intermediate step between a one-dimensional simulation and a full three-dimensional global model. Using this framework, we analyze the resolution dependencies of simulated clouds and the Hadley circulation in a range of global high resolution models by performing multiple 1000-day simulations; for some resolutions tested, for example, 2 km horizontal resolution, three-dimensional simulation is not feasible at the present time. Analysis shows that both horizontal and vertical resolution determine the properties of the Hadley circulation and clouds, and that the differences among the simulated Hadley circulations are understood as differences in scale interactions influenced by resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Polariton relaxation under vibrational strong coupling: Comparing cavity molecular dynamics simulations against Fermi’s golden rule rate

Under vibrational strong coupling (VSC), the formation of molecular polaritons may significantly modify the photo-induced or thermal properties of molecules. In an effort to understand these intriguing modifications, both experimental and theoretical studies have focused on the ultrafast dynamics of vibrational polaritons. Here, following our recent work [Li et al., J. Chem. Phys. 154, 094124 (2021)], we systematically study the mechanism of polariton relaxation for liquid CO 2 under a weak external pumping. Classical cavity molecular dynamics (CavMD) simulations confirm that polariton relaxation results from the combined effects of (i) cavity loss through the photonic component and (ii) dephasing of the bright-mode component to vibrational dark modes as mediated by intermolecular interactions. The latter polaritonic dephasing rate is proportional to the product of the weight of the bright mode in the polariton wave function and the spectral overlap between the polariton and dark modes. Both these factors are sensitive to parameters such as the Rabi splitting and cavity mode detuning. Compared to a Fermi’s golden rule calculation based on a tight-binding harmonic model, CavMD yields a similar parameter dependence for the upper polariton relaxation lifetime but sometimes a modest disagreement for the lower polariton. We suggest that this disagreement results from polariton-enhanced molecular nonlinear absorption due to molecular anharmonicity, which is not included in our analytical model. Finally, we also summarize recent progress on probing nonreactive VSC dynamics with CavMD.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Role of self-generated magnetic fields in the inertial fusion ignition threshold

Magnetic fields spontaneously grow at unstable interfaces around hot-spot asymmetries during inertial confinement fusion implosions. Although difficult to measure, theoretical considerations and numerical simulations predict field strengths exceeding 5 kT in current National Ignition Facility experiments. Magnetic confinement of electrons then reduces the rate of hot-spot heat loss by >5%. We demonstrate this via magnetic post-processing of two-dimensional xRAGE hydrodynamic simulation data at bang time. We then derive a model for the self-magnetization, finding that it varies with the square of the hot-spot temperature and inversely with the areal density. The self-magnetized Lawson analysis then gives a slightly reduced ignition threshold. Time-dependent hot-spot energy balance models corroborate this finding, with the magnetic field quadrupling the fusion yield for near-threshold parameters. The inclusion of magnetized multi-dimensional fluid instabilities could further alter the ignition threshold and will be the subject of future work.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian inference analysis of jet quenching using inclusive jet and hadron suppression measurements

The JETSCAPE Collaboration reports a new determination of the jet transport parameter $\hat{q}$ in the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) using Bayesian inference, incorporating all available inclusive hadron and jet yield suppression data measured in heavy-ion collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the CERN Large Hadron Collider (LHC). This multi-observable analysis extends the previously published JETSCAPE Bayesian inference determination of $\hat{q}$, which was based solely on a selection of inclusive hadron suppression data. jetscape is a modular framework incorporating detailed dynamical models of QGP formation and evolution, and jet propagation and interaction in the QGP. Virtuality-dependent partonic energy loss in the QGP is modeled as a thermalized weakly coupled plasma, with parameters determined from Bayesian calibration using soft-sector observables. This Bayesian calibration of $\hat{q}$ utilizes active learning, a machine-learning approach, for efficient exploitation of computing resources. The experimental data included in this analysis span a broad range in collision energy and centrality, and in transverse momentum. In order to explore the systematic dependence of the extracted parameter posterior distributions, several different calibrations are reported, based on combined jet and hadron data; on jet or hadron data separately; and on restricted kinematic or centrality ranges of the jet and hadron data. Tension is observed in comparison of these variations, providing new insights into the physics of jet transport in the QGP and its theoretical formulation.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uptake of Pb and the Formation of Mixed (Ba,Pb)SO 4 Monolayers on Barite During Cyclic Exposure to Lead-Containing Sulfuric Acid

Barite (BaSO 4 ) is a common additive in lead-acid batteries, where it acts as a nucleating agent to promote the reversible formation and dissolution of PbSO 4 during battery cycling. However, little is known about the molecular-scale mechanisms the nucleation and cyclic evolution of PbSO 4 over a battery’s lifetime. In this study, we explore the responses of a barite (001) surface to cycles of high and low lead concentrations in the presence of 100 mM sulfuric acid using in-situ atomic force microscopy and high-resolution X-ray reflectivity. Here we find that PbSO 4 epitaxial films readily nucleate on the barite surface, even from solutions that are undersaturated relative to bulk PbSO 4 . Despite this, barite (001) proves to be an ineffective nucleator of bulk PbSO 4 , as multilayer growth is suppressed even in highly supersaturated solutions. Instead, we find evidence that Pb 2+ ions can directly exchange with Ba 2+ to create mixed (Ba,Pb)SO 4 surfaces. These chemically mixed surfaces do not host PbSO4 monolayers as readily as pristine barite, and the original reactivity is not regained until a fresh surface is reestablished by aggressive etching. Our results can be partly explained by traditional models of Stranski-Krastanov (S-K) growth, in which monolayer films are stabilized by a reduction in surface energy, but multilayer growth is inhibited by epitaxial strain. Complementary density functional theory calculations confirmed the basic energetic-terms of traditional S-K models, but also showed evidence form more complex, thickness-dependent, energetics than would be predicted from the S-K models. The experimental results can be better understood by extending the S-K model to consider the formation of mixed surfaces and films, which can have reduced strain and interfacial energies relative to pure films, while also being stabilized by entropy of mixing. These insights into non-stoichiometric heteroepitaxy will enable better predictions of how barite affects PbSO 4 nucleation in battery environments.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cookoff of Black Powder and Smokeless Powder

We have completed a series of both vented and sealed cookoff experiments of black powder and smokeless powder in our Sandia Instrumented Thermal Ignition (SITI) apparatus at bulk densities of 1078 and 729 kg/m 3 , respectively. The confining aluminum cylinder was ramped from room temperature to a set point temperature and then held at the setpoint temperature until ignition. The setpoint temperatures varied between 495 to 523 K for the black powder and 401 to 412 K for the more sensitive smokeless powder. The vented experiments show a significant delay in thermal ignition, indicating that the ignition is dependent on pressure. Post experimental debris shows greater violence for our smokeless powder experiments than our black powder experiments. A simplified universal cookoff model (UCM) was calibrated using the black powder and smokeless powder SITI data and used to predict pressurization and thermal ignition. The current work presents the first calibration of the UCM with a double base propellant. Finally, this work also presents the first pressure-dependent cookoff model for black powder and smokeless powder.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

A theoretical study of solid solution strengthening in the refractory medium entropy alloy Nb 45 Ta 25 Ti 15 Hf 15

The refractory medium-entropy alloy (RMEA) Nb 45 Ta 25 Ti 15 Hf 15 exhibits exceptional tensile ductility and fracture toughness at ambient temperature, but its engineering applications are limited by a lack of high temperature strength. Using a machine-learning interatomic potential (MLIP) with near-density functional theory (DFT) accuracy, we conducted molecular dynamics (MD) and statics simulations of the behavior of dislocations with both screw and edge characters. We also analyze experimentally measured yield strengths using the Rao-Suzuki model and the Maresca-Curtin model modified to include a temperature-dependent shear modulus and a bulk modulus-dependent misfit volume, thereby uncovering the mechanisms underlying the yielding of this RMEA. Compared with the published experimental yield strength, the models parameterized by the MLIP effectively reproduce the experimental results over a wide temperature range. The models and MD simulations indicate that yielding is governed by screw dislocations, with dipole dragging as the dominant mechanism. In MD simulations, we observed a potential softening mechanism not considered by the Rao-Suzuki screw model: slow migration of interstitial jogs along the dislocation core, which could lead to the annihilation of vacancy and interstitial jog pairs by their combination.

BCC complex concentrated alloys↗
DOE OSTI2023

Strengthening model development and effects of low diffusing solutes to coarsening resistance in aluminum alloys

A modified Orowan strengthening model is proposed to account for finite rod-shaped precipitates with hemispherical caps in aluminum alloy systems. A combined computational and experimental approach is used to study the influences of anisotropic Orowan looping and solute-dislocation interaction on temperature-dependent yield strength. Here, the strengthening model is validated with a dataset containing 297 experimental precipitate geometries, chemistries, temperatures, and strength measurements, and achieves a strong predictive correlation of 0.8713 with experimentally measured yield strengths. Under conditions that are applicable to coarsening, constant particle volume fraction and aspect ratio, the model predicts that short rod precipitates provide far superior strengthening effects compared to plate precipitates. A cast Al-Si-Mg-Cu alloy with rod-shaped Q-phase (Al 3 Cu 2 Mg 9 Si 7 ) precipitates was developed with a novel chemistry exploring the use of low-diffusivity elements (Mn, Ni, V, Zr) to limit precipitate coarsening. The thermodynamic behavior of Mn, Ni, V, and Zr across the Q-phase interface is examined using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), first-principles density-functional theory (DFT) calculations. and atom-probe tomography (APT). DFT calculations utilizing TEM identified Q-phase/Al-matrix interfaces show that Mn, Ni, V, and Zr preferentially segregate to the Q-phase precipitate boundaries which suggests inhibition of precipitate coarsening and higher strengths after temperature exposure. Atom-probe tomography confirms solute atom partitioning/segregation at the Q-phase/Al-matrix interface, found in the modified commercial AS7GU alloy (A356 +0.5%Cu), which supports these observations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Rapidity distributions of Z = 1 isotopes and the nuclear symmetry energy from Sn+Sn collisions with radioactive beams at 270 MeV/nucleon

The rapidity distributions of hydrogen isotopes emitted from central collisions of neutron-rich 132 Sn+ 124 Sn and neutron-deficient 108 Sn+ 112 Sn systems at 270 MeV/nucleon were investigated at RIKEN-RIBF. The data are compared with antisymmetrized molecular dynamics (AMD) calculations and the rapidity distributions can be reproduced after adjusting the in-medium nucleon-nucleon cross sections. The double ratios between the two reaction systems taken for the relative yields of deuteron to proton (d/p) and triton to proton (t/p) are further examined in the midrapidity domain, where the adjustments in the AMD calculations do not affect much on them. The d/p and t/p double ratios at midrapidity agree well with the ratio of the system neutron numbers and its squared value, respectively, and the rapidity dependence of these double ratios is consistent with a picture of partial mixing of colliding nuclei. By comparing with the AMD model which shows a strong symmetry energy dependence of the t/p double ratio, the experimental result in the midrapidity domain favors the calculation with a symmetry-energy slope parameter around L = 46 MeV rather than L = 108 MeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗