Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “dependability modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,405 records · Page 78

A crystallographic model for nickel base single crystal alloys

The purpose of this research is to develop a tool for the mechanical analysis of nickel-base single-crystal superalloys, specifically Rene N4, used in gas turbine engine components. This objective is achieved by developing a rate-dependent anisotropic constitutive model and implementing it in a nonlinear three-dimensional finite-element code. The constitutive model is developed from metallurgical concepts utilizing a crystallographic approach. An extension of Schmid's law is combined with the Bodner-Partom equations to model the inelastic tension/compression asymmetry and orientation-dependence in octahedral slip. Schmid's law is used to approximate the inelastic response of the material in cube slip. The constitutive equations model the tensile behavior, creep response and strain-rate sensitivity of the single-crystal superalloys. Methods for deriving the material constants from standard tests are also discussed. The model is implemented in a finite-element code, and the computed and experimental results are compared for several orientations and loading conditions.

Dame, L. T.↗

Aerosol Absorption in Global Models From AeroCom Phase III

Aerosol-induced absorption of shortwave radiation can modify the climate through local atmospheric heating, which affects lapse rates, precipitation, and cloud formation. Presently, the total amount of aerosol absorption is poorly constrained, and the main absorbing aerosol species (black carbon (BC), organic aerosols (OA), and mineral dust) are diversely quantified in global climate models. As part of the third phase of the Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) intercomparison initiative (AeroCom phase III), we here document the distribution and magnitude of aerosol absorption in current global aerosol models and quantify the sources of intermodel spread, highlighting the difficulties of attributing absorption to different species. In total, 15 models have provided total present-day absorption at 550 nm (using year 2010 emissions), 11 of which have provided absorption per absorbing species. The multi-model global annual mean total absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) is 0.0054 (0.0020 to 0.0098; 550 nm), with the range given as the minimum and maximum model values. This is 28 % higher compared to the 0.0042 (0.0021 to 0.0076) multi-model mean in AeroCom phase II (using year 2000 emissions), but the difference is within 1 standard deviation, which, in this study, is 0.0023 (0.0019 in Phase II). Of the summed component AAOD, 60 % (range 36 %–84 %) is estimated to be due to BC, 31 % (12 %–49 %) is due to dust, and 11 % (0 %–24 %) is due to OA; however, the components are not independent in terms of their absorbing efficiency. In models with internal mixtures of absorbing aerosols, a major challenge is the lack of a common and simple method to attribute absorption to the different absorbing species. Therefore, when possible, the models with internally mixed aerosols in the present study have performed simulations using the same method for estimating absorption due to BC, OA, and dust, namely by removing it and comparing runs with and without the absorbing species. We discuss the challenges of attributing absorption to different species; we compare burden, refractive indices, and density; and we contrast models with internal mixing to models with external mixing. The model mean BC mass absorption coefficient (MAC) value is 10.1 (3.1 to 17.7) m 2 g −1 (550 nm), and the model mean BC AAOD is 0.0030 (0.0007 to 0.0077). The difference in lifetime (and burden) in the models explains as much of the BC AAOD spread as the difference in BC MAC values. The difference in the spectral dependency between the models is striking. Several models have an absorption Ångstrøm exponent (AAE) close to 1, which likely is too low given current knowledge of spectral aerosol optical properties. Most models do not account for brown carbon and underestimate the spectral dependency for OA.

Aerosol absorption↗

Shock Formation and Energy Dissipation of Slow Magnetosonic Waves in Coronal Plumes

We study the shock formation and energy dissipation of slow magnetosonic waves in coronal plumes. The wave parameters and the spreading function of the plumes as well as the base magnetic field strength are given by empirical constraints mostly from SOHO/UVCS. Our models show that shock formation occurs at low coronal heights, i.e., within 1.3 bun, depending on the model parameters. In addition, following analytical estimates, we show that scale height of energy dissipation by the shocks ranges between 0.15 and 0.45 Rsun. This implies that shock heating by slow magnetosonic waves is relevant at most heights, even though this type of waves is apparently not a solely operating energy supply mechanism.

Cuntz, M.↗

Critical Load Exceedances for North America and Europe using an Ensemble of Models and an Investigation of Causes for Environmental Impact Estimate Variability: An AQMEII4 Study

Exceedances of critical loads for deposition of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) to different ecosystems were estimated using European and North American ensembles of air quality models, under Phase 4 of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII4), to identify where risk of ecosystem harm is expected to occur based on model deposition estimates. The ensembles were driven by common emissions and lateral boundary condition inputs. Model output was regridded to common North American and Europe 0.125° resolution domains, which were then used to calculate critical load exceedances. New, targeted deposition diagnostics implemented in AQMEII4 allowed an unprecedented level of post-simulation analysis to be carried out and facilitated the identification of specific causes of model-to-model variability in critical load exceedance estimates. New datasets for North American critical loads for acidity for forest soil water and aquatic ecosystems were combined with the ensemble deposition predictions to show a substantial decrease in the area and number of locations in exceedance between 2010 and 2016 (forest soils: 13.2 % to 6.1 %; aquatic ecosystems: 21.2 % to 11.4 %). All models agreed in the direction of the ensemble exceedance change between 2010 and 2016. The North American ensemble also predicted a decrease in both severity and total area in exceedance between the years 2010 and 2016 for eutrophication-impacted ecosystems in the USA (sensitive epiphytic lichen: 81.5 % to 75.8 %). The exceedances for herbaceous community richness also decreased between 2010 and 2016, from 13.9 % to 3.9 %. The uncertainty associated with the North American eutrophication results is high; there were sharp differences between the models in both predictions of total N deposition and the change in N deposition, and hence in the predicted eutrophication exceedances between the two years. The European ensemble was used to predict relatively static exceedances of critical loads with respect to acidification (4.48 % to 4.32 % from 2009 to 2010) while eutrophication exceedance increased slightly (60.2 % to 62.2 %). While most models showed the same changes in critical load exceedances as the ensemble between the two years, the spatial extent and magnitude of exceedances varied significantly between the models. The reasons for this variation were examined in detail by first ranking the relative contribution of different sources of sulphur and nitrogen deposition in terms of deposited mass and model-to-model variability in that deposited mass, followed by their analysis using AQMEII4 diagnostics, along with evaluation of the most recent literature. All models in both the North American and European ensembles had net annual negative biases with respect to observed wet deposition of sulphate, nitrate and ammonium. Diagnostics and recent literature suggest that this bias may stem from insufficient cloud scavenging of aerosols and gases, and may be improved through the incorporation of multiphase hydrometeor scavenging within the modelling frameworks. The inability of North American models to predict the timing of the seasonal peak in wet ammonium ion deposition (observed maximum was in April, while all models predicted a June maximum) may also relate to the need for multiphase hydrometeor scavenging (absence of snow scavenging in all models employed here). High variability in the relative importance of particulate sulphate, nitrate and ammonium deposition fluxes between models was linked to the use of updated particle dry deposition parameterizations in some models. However, recent literature and further development of some of the models within the ensemble suggests these particulate biases may also be ameliorated via the incorporation of multiphase hydrometeor scavenging. Annual sulphur and nitrogen deposition prediction variability was linked to SO 2 and HNO 3 dry deposition parameterizations, and diagnostic analysis showed that the cuticle and soil deposition pathways dominate the deposition mass flux of these species. Further work improving parameterizations for these deposition pathways should reduce variability in model acidifying gas deposition estimates. The absence of base cation chemistry in some models was shown to be a major factor in positive biases in fine mode particulate ammonium and particle nitrate concentrations. Models employing ammonia bidirectional fluxes had both the largest and the smallest magnitude biases, depending on the model and bidirectional flux algorithm employed. A careful analysis of bidirectional flux models suggests that those with poor NH 3 performance may underestimate the extent of NH 3 emissions fluxes from forested areas. Based on these results, an increased process-research focus is therefore recommended for the following model processes and on observations which may assist in model evaluation and improvement: multiphase hydrometeor scavenging combined with updated particle dry deposition, cuticle and soil deposition pathway algorithms for acidifying gases, base cation chemistry and emissions, and NH 3 bidirectional fluxes. Comparisons with satellite observations suggest that oceanic NH 3 emissions sources should be included in regional chemical transport models. The choice of land use database employed within any given model was shown to significantly influence deposition totals in several instances, and employing a common land use database across chemical transport models and critical load calculations is recommended for future work.

critical loads↗

Dependability analysis of parallel systems using a simulation-based approach

The analysis of dependability in large, complex, parallel systems executing real applications or workloads is examined in this thesis. To effectively demonstrate the wide range of dependability problems that can be analyzed through simulation, the analysis of three case studies is presented. For each case, the organization of the simulation model used is outlined, and the results from simulated fault injection experiments are explained, showing the usefulness of this method in dependability modeling of large parallel systems. The simulation models are constructed using DEPEND and C++. Where possible, methods to increase dependability are derived from the experimental results. Another interesting facet of all three cases is the presence of some kind of workload of application executing in the simulation while faults are injected. This provides a completely new dimension to this type of study, not possible to model accurately with analytical approaches.

Sawyer, Darren Charles↗

Population balance modeling of polyurethane foam formation with pressure‐dependent growth kernel

Abstract Polyurethane foams are widely used materials often chosen for their useful characteristics such as low thermal conductivity, ease of application, and high strength‐to‐weight ratios. Computational models are needed to predict the dynamics of the flow and expansion, and the resulting material properties, to improve manufacturing processes. In this paper, a model for PMDI, a water‐blown polyurethane foam, is presented. By extending a kinetics‐based approach by adding bubble‐scale information via a population balance equation (PBE) using the quadrature method of moments, we can track bubble size distributions during foaming. We present results from a three‐dimensional computational fluid dynamics model using arbitrary Lagrangian–Eulerian interface tracking implemented in finite element software. The model compares favorably with experimental data, including dynamics, bubble distributions measured by both camera and diffusion wave spectroscopy, and post‐test bubble size from scanning electron microscopy and density measurements from x‐ray computed tomography.

Ortiz, Weston↗

A geospatial model for the analysis of time-dependent land subsidence induced by reservoir depletion

Land subsidence due to fluid depletion is an outcome of physical processes operating across a wide range of time and length scales. Although geomechanical models are crucial to simulate reservoir compaction and predict its long-term fate, their use across large regions often bears prohibitive computational costs. To overcome this obstacle, this paper proposes a simplified modelling framework consisting of (i) a near-field numerical solver simulating the coupling between fluid flow and rock deformation with reference to a simplified one-dimensional geometry and (ii) a far-field geospatial algorithm mapping ground settlements across a region through the superposition of poroelastic computations at multiple wells. The model computes the delay between depletion history and reservoir compaction in proximity of a producing well by assuming basal depletion of a fluid-saturated deformable disk, while the Geertsma solution of nucleus of strain is used to extrapolate the impact of such time-varying reservoir compaction around the well. This approach has been used to back-analyze the spatio-temporal progression of subsidence at the Groningen gas field. The results are compared against measurements collected over 50 year of production at 25 benchmark locations scattered over an area of 900 km 2 . It is shown that coupled simulations based on average values of rock compressibility and permeability lead to nonlinear trends of subsidence evolution in good agreement with field measurements, while uncoupled analyses overpredict settlements by more than 70%. Lastly, synthetic forecasts based on different rates of depletion were provided. The results suggest that slower depletion rates lead to lower subsidence at a given time, and that residual subsidence may continue to develop for several decades after interruption of production activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dependence of Mercurian Atmospheric Column Abundance Estimations on Surface-Reflectance Modeling

Column abundance estimates of sodium, and analogously, potassium, in Mercury's exosphere are strongly correlated to the surface reflection model used to calibrate the spectral data and the surface reflection model incorporated into the atmospheric radiative transfer solution. Depending on the surface reflection model parameters used, there can be differences in calibration factors of up to +/- 30% and differences in estimated column abundance of up to +/- 35%. Although the surface reflectance may not be used in the calibration of spacecraft measurements, the interaction between the reflected surface light and the atmospheric brightness remains important.

Domingue, Deborah L.↗

Core-scale numerical simulation and comparison of breakdown of shale and resulting fractures using sc-CO 2 and water as injectants

Supercritical carbon dioxide (sc-CO 2 ) is an alternative to water for stimulation of low permeability systems such as shale gas and geothermal resources. Previously core-scale experimental studies have compared the behavior of CO 2 to water injection for sample breakdown. Due to differences in experimental setup and core sample preparation, inconsistent or even apparently contradictory conclusions have resulted. To reconcile this contradiction, a phase-field numerical model is applied to understand hydraulic fracturing experiments using Green River shale found in the literature. The finite element numerical model incorporates a rate-dependent phase-field fracture model developed separately to describe fracture initiation and growth. We investigate the impact of various material and fluid properties on the resulting fractures. Most importantly, we study the effect of fluid properties and boundary conditions on the breakdown pressure, including the direction of the resulting fracture plane. Model results predict that (1) sc-CO 2 injection in the laboratory may result in greater breakdown pressure than that of water under no-flow boundary conditions because lower viscosity sc-CO 2 may result in pressure build up at the core boundary that opposes fracture initiation and (2) lower viscosity sc-CO 2 also produces fast-propagating fractures that are less influenced by the bedding plane on their resulting fracture topology. Here our model offers a straightforward explanation and reconciliation of existing experimental observations, as well as a means to extrapolate to new conditions. Exploration of field-scale conditions suggests less pronounced or no elevation in breakdown pressure when sc-CO 2 is injected because the pressure build up effect at the system boundary is significantly less or absent at field length scales.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Discrete-Direct Model Calibration and Uncertainty Propagation Method Confirmed on Multi-Parameter Plasticity Model Calibrated to Sparse Random Field Data

A discrete direct (DD) model calibration and uncertainty propagation approach is explained and demonstrated on a 4-parameter Johnson-Cook (J-C) strain-rate dependent material strength model for an aluminum alloy. The methodology's performance is characterized in many trials involving four random realizations of strain-rate dependent material-test data curves per trial, drawn from a large synthetic population. The J-C model is calibrated to particular combinations of the data curves to obtain calibration parameter sets which are then propagated to “Can Crush” structural model predictions to produce samples of predicted response variability. These are processed with appropriate sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to estimate various statistics of response with an appropriate level of conservatism. This is tested on 16 output quantities (von Mises stresses and equivalent plastic strains) and it is shown that important statistics of the true variabilities of the 16 quantities are bounded with a high success rate that is reasonably predictable and controllable. The DD approach has several advantages over other calibration-UQ approaches like Bayesian inference for capturing and utilizing the information obtained from typically small numbers of replicate experiments in model calibration situations—especially when sparse replicate functional data are involved like force–displacement curves from material tests. The DD methodology is straightforward and efficient for calibration and propagation problems involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in calibration experiments, models, and procedures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Oceanic lithosphere and asthenosphere - Thermal and mechanical structure

A coupled thermomechanical subsolidus model of the oceanic lithosphere and asthenosphere is developed which includes vertical heat conduction, a temperature-dependent thermal conductivity, heat advection by a horizontal and vertical mass flow that depends on depth and age, contributions of viscous dissipation or shear heating, a linear or nonlinear deformation law relating shear stress and strain rate, as well as a temperature- and pressure-dependent viscosity. The model requires a constant horizontal velocity and temperature at the surface, but zero horizontal velocity and constant temperature at great depths. The depth- and age-dependent temperature, horizontal and vertical velocities, and viscosity structure of the lithosphere and asthenosphere are determined along with the age-dependent shear stress in those two zones. The ocean-floor topography, oceanic heat flow, and lithosphere thickness are deduced as functions of ocean-floor age; seismic velocity profiles which exhibit a marked low-velocity zone are constructed from the age-dependent geotherms and assumed values of the elastic parameters. It is found that simple boundary-layer cooling determines the thermal structure at young ages, while effects of viscous dissipation become more important at older ages.

Schubert, G.↗

On the angle and wavelength dependencies of the radar backscatter from the icy Galilean moons of Jupiter

This paper reports new developments in the buried crater model that has proved successful in explaining the anomalous strengths and polarizations of the radar echoes from the icy Galilean moons of Jupiter (Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto). The theory is extended to make predictions of the radar cross sections at all points on the surface of the moon, to compute the shape and strength of the power spectra, and to model a wavelength dependence that has been observed.

Gurrola, Eric M.↗

An Agent-Based Model for Analyzing Control Policies and the Dynamic Service-Time Performance of a Capacity-Constrained Air Traffic Management Facility

Simple agent-based models may be useful for investigating air traffic control strategies as a precursory screening for more costly, higher fidelity simulation. Of concern is the ability of the models to capture the essence of the system and provide insight into system behavior in a timely manner and without breaking the bank. The method is put to the test with the development of a model to address situations where capacity is overburdened and potential for propagation of the resultant delay though later flights is possible via flight dependencies. The resultant model includes primitive representations of principal air traffic system attributes, namely system capacity, demand, airline schedules and strategy, and aircraft capability. It affords a venue to explore their interdependence in a time-dependent, dynamic system simulation. The scope of the research question and the carefully-chosen modeling fidelity did allow for the development of an agent-based model in short order. The model predicted non-linear behavior given certain initial conditions and system control strategies. Additionally, a combination of the model and dimensionless techniques borrowed from fluid systems was demonstrated that can predict the system s dynamic behavior across a wide range of parametric settings.

Conway, Sheila R.↗

A mathematical model of the middle and high latitude ionosphere

A time-dependent three-dimensional model of the middle and high latitude ionosphere is described. The density distributions of six ion species NO(+), O(2+), N(2+), O(+), N(+), He(+), and the electron and ion temperatures are obtained from a numerical solution of the appropriate continuity, momentum, and energy equations. The equations are solved as a function of height for an inclined magnetic field at E and F region altitudes. The three-dimensional nature of the model is obtained by following flux tubes of plasma as they convect or corotate through a moving neutral atmosphere. The model takes account of field-aligned diffusion, cross-field electrodynamic drifts, thermospheric winds, polar wind escape, energy-dependent chemical reactions, neutral composition changes, ion production due to solar EUV radiation and auroral precipitation, thermal conduction, diffusion-thermal heat flow and local heating and cooling processes. The model also takes account of the offset between the geomagnetic and geographic poles.

Schunk, R. W.↗

Measurements of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow with seven years of IceCube data: Comparison with the Solar cycle and magnetic field models

Observations of the time-dependent cosmic-ray Sun shadow have been proven as a valuable diagnostic for the assessment of solar magnetic field models. Here, seven years of IceCube data are compared to solar activity and solar magnetic field models. A quantitative comparison of solar magnetic field models with IceCube data on the event rate level is performed for the first time. Additionally, a first energy-dependent analysis is presented and compared to recent predictions. We use seven years of IceCube data for the moon and the Sun and compare them to simulations on data rate level. The simulations are performed for the geometrical shadow hypothesis for the moon and the Sun and for a cosmic-ray propagation model governed by the solar magnetic field for the case of the Sun. We find that a linearly decreasing relationship between Sun shadow strength and solar activity is preferred over a constant relationship at the 6.4σ level. We test two commonly used models of the coronal magnetic field, both combined with a Parker spiral, by modeling cosmic-ray propagation in the solar magnetic field. Both models predict a weakening of the shadow in times of high solar activity as it is also visible in the data. We find tensions with the data on the order of 3σ for both models, assuming only statistical uncertainties. The magnetic field model CSSS fits the data slightly better than the PFSS model. This is generally consistent with what is found previously by the Tibet AS-γ Experiment; a deviation of the data from the two models is, however, not significant at this point. Regarding the energy dependence of the Sun shadow, we find indications that the shadowing effect increases with energy during times of high solar activity, in agreement with theoretical predictions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Structural and vibrational behavior of 2 H -NbSe 2 at high pressures

In this work, the high-pressure structural and vibrational properties of a layered transition metal dichalcogenide 2 H -NbSe 2 were investigated using single-crystal x-ray diffraction and Raman spectroscopy, demonstrating its structural stability up to 35 GPa. The lattice compressibility changes character from being highly anisotropic at low pressures to largely isotropic at high pressures. Concomitantly, the interatomic bonds demonstrate highly anisotropic compression behavior with the Se-Se interlayer bonds compressing by >20%, while the intramolecular Se-Se distance shows a nonmonotonic pressure dependence with a maximum at-12 GPa. The nearest-neighbor central force lattice vibrational model yields pressure dependencies of the interatomic forces in qualitative agreement with bond length compression, providing insight into the vibrational properties of 2 H -NbSe 2 at high pressures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Bose-Einstein condensation phenomenology in systems with repulsive interactions

The role of repulsive interactions in statistical systems of Bose particles is investigated. Three different phenomenological frameworks are considered: A mean-field model, an excluded volume model, and a model with a medium-dependent effective mass. All three models are tuned to yield similar equations of state, with only minor deviations from the ideal Bose gas at small chemical potentials. Our analysis indicates, however, that these models lead to qualitatively different results for the Bose-Einstein condensation phenomenon. We discuss the different aspects of this phenomenon, namely, an onset of the Bose-Einstein condensation, particle number fluctuations, and a behavior of the Bose condensate. The obtained results can be helpful for interpreting the lattice QCD data at small temperature and large isospin chemical potential and the data on multiple pion production in high-energy nuclear collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies

Abstract. Climatic extreme events are expected to occur more frequently in the future, increasing the likelihood of unprecedented climate extremes (UCEs) or record-breaking events. UCEs, such as extreme heatwaves and droughts, substantially affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling by increasing plant mortality and delaying ecosystem recovery. Quantitative knowledge of such effects is limited due to the paucity of experiments focusing on extreme climatic events beyond the range of historical experience. Here, we present a road map of how dynamic vegetation demographic models (VDMs) can be used to investigate hypotheses surrounding ecosystem responses to one type of UCE: unprecedented droughts. As a result of nonlinear ecosystem responses to UCEs that are qualitatively different from responses to milder extremes, we consider both biomass loss and recovery rates over time by reporting a time-integrated carbon loss as a result of UCE, relative to the absence of drought. Additionally, we explore how unprecedented droughts in combination with increasing atmospheric CO2 and/or temperature may affect ecosystem stability and carbon cycling. We explored these questions using simulations of pre-drought and post-drought conditions at well-studied forest sites using well-tested models (ED2 and LPJ-GUESS). The severity and patterns of biomass losses differed substantially between models. For example, biomass loss could be sensitive to either drought duration or drought intensity depending on the model approach. This is due to the models having different, but also plausible, representations of processes and interactions, highlighting the complicated variability of UCE impacts that still need to be narrowed down in models. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations (eCO2) alone did not completely buffer the ecosystems from carbon losses during UCEs in the majority of our simulations. Our findings highlight the consequences of differences in process formulations and uncertainties in models, most notably related to availability in plant carbohydrate storage and the diversity of plant hydraulic schemes, in projecting potential ecosystem responses to UCEs. We provide a summary of the current state and role of many model processes that give way to different underlying hypotheses of plant responses to UCEs, reflecting knowledge gaps which in future studies could be tested with targeted field experiments and an iterative modeling–experimental conceptual framework.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗