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Toward unbiased determination of the redshift evolution of Lyman-alpha forest clouds

The possibility of using D(sub A), the mean depression of a quasar spectrum due to Ly-alpha forest absorption, to study the number density evolution of the Ly-alpha forest clouds is examined in some detail. Current D(sub A) measurements are made against a continuum that is a power-law extrapolation from the continuum longward of Ly-alpha emission. Compared to the line-counting approach, the D(sub A)-method has the advantage that the D(sub A) measurements are not affected by line-blending effects. However, we find using low-redshift quasar spectra obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), where the true continuum in the Ly-alpha forest can be estimated fairly reliably because of the much lower density of the Ly-alpha forest lines, that the extrapolated continuum often deviates systematically from the true continuum in the forest region. Such systematic continuum errors introduce large errors in the D(sub A) measurements. The current D(sub A) measurements may also be significantly biased by the possible presence of the Gunn-Peterson absorption. We propose a modification to the existing D(sub A)-method, namely, to measure D(sub A) against a locally established continuum in the Ly-alpha forest. Under conditions that the quasar spectrum has good resolution and S/N to allow for a reliable estimate of the local continuum in the Ly-alpha forest, the modified D(sub A) measurements should be largely free of the systematic uncertainties suffered by the existing D(sub A) measurements. We also introduce a formalism based on the work of Zuo (1993) to simplify the application of the D(sub A)-method(s) to real data. We discuss the merits and limitations of the modified D(sub A)-method, and conclude that it is a useful alternative. Our findings that the extrapolated continuum from longward of Ly-alpha emission often deviates systematically from the true continuum in the Ly-alpha forest present a major problem in the study of the Gunn-Peterson absorption.

Lu, Limin↗

Measurement of soil moisture trends with airborne scatterometers

The author had identified the following significant results. Repeated looks at surfaces that maintain constant roughness can provide an estimate of soil moisture in the surface, when appropriate radar look angles are used. Significant influence due to differences in soil moisture can be detected in the 13.3 GHz and 1.6 GHz scatterometer returns. Effects of normal crop densities have little influence on the surface soil moisture estimate, when appropriate look angles are used. It appears that different look angles are optimum for different frequencies to avoid effects from vegetation. Considering the frequency and look angles used on the Seasat-A imaging radar, differences in soil moisture should produce as much as 9 db difference in return on that system.

Blanchard, B. J.↗

Intermediate scattering potential strength in electron-irradiated YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7-δ from London penetration depth measurements

Temperature-dependent London penetration depth, λ(T), of a high quality optimally-doped YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7-δ single crystal was measured using tunnel-diode-resonator technique. Controlled artificial disorder was induced by low-temperature 20 K irradiation by 2.5 MeV electrons at two large doses of 3.8 x 10 19 and 5.3 x 10 19 electrons per cm 2 . The irradiation caused significant suppression of the superconductor's critical temperature, T c , from 94.6 K to 90.0 K, and to 78.7 K, respectively. The low-temperature behavior of λ(T) evolves from a T-linear in pristine state to a T 2 behavior after irradiation, expected for a line-nodal d-wave superconductor. However, the original theory that explained such behavior assumed a unitary limit of the scattering potential, whereas usually in normal metals and semiconductors, Born scattering is sufficient to describe the experiment. To estimate the scattering potential strength, we calculated the superfluid density, ρ s (t = T/T c ) = λ 2 (0)/λ 2 (T), varying the amount and strength of non-magnetic scattering using a self-consistent t-matrix theory. Fitting the obtained curves to a power law, ρ s = 1 - Rt n , and to a polynomial, ρ s = 1 - At - Bt 2 , and comparing the coefficients n in one set and A and B in another with the experimental values, we estimate the phase shift to be around 70 and 65°, respectively. We correlate this result with the evolution of the density of states with nonmagnetic disorder.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Helium metastable density determination in the COST reference source by absolutely calibrated optical emission spectroscopy

Helium metastable densities in the COST Reference Microplasma Jet are estimated for a variety of He/N2 admixtures and dissipated powers by applying a collisional-radiative model to absolutely calibrated optical emission spectroscopy measurements. This is accomplished by delineating the excitation mechanisms that result in the N2(C–B) and N2+(B–X) emission bands, the latter of which is strongly coupled to the presence of helium metastables. A number of other plasma parameters are established and discussed for each operating condition including the electron energy distribution function, reduced electric field, rate constants, and electron density. With these parameters, the reaction rates for the primary ionization pathways are also calculated, emphasizing the importance of helium metastables for discharge sustainment. Good agreement with the existing literature is found for most plasma parameters and for helium metastable densities, in particular. A clear [N2]−1 relationship between the nitrogen concentration and density of helium metastables is demonstrated, as has been identified in previous studies in analogous atmospheric pressure plasma jets. This validates the efficacy of this optical technique for determining helium metastable densities and establishes it as a viable, and in many cases, more accessible alternative to other means of quantifying helium metastables in low-temperature plasmas.

Physics↗

Watching Without Seeing a Tool to Surveil Astronaut Health Outcomes While Maintaining Astronaut Medical Privacy

BACKGROUND The Privacy Act of 1974 regulates the use a nd disclosure of personally identifiable information by US Federal agencies. The Act applies to biographical, financial, a nd other identity-linked information, a s well a s personal health information (PHI). As such, the use of astronaut PHI is limited to authorized personnel for preapproved uses, with data reporting often limited to aggregated information about groups. These limitations on the use a nd reporting of astronaut PHI complicates surveillance efforts, wherein epidemiologists a t the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)monitor the incidence of targeted health conditions in the astronaut population, or to discover emerging trends of aging and disease. Stratification on one or more covariates –particularly time-period, sex, a nd mission participation –can lead to extremely small datasets such that the reporting of results is potentially attributable to individuals. An additional challenge is the small size of the astronaut population, both in terms of numbers of individuals a s well a s in terms of density of exposure time. Such small datasets yield volatile rate estimates that are difficult to interpret. To a id the epidemiological surveillance efforts, a surveillance tool is required that can (a) satisfy the need for rapid computation of condition-specific incidence and mortality rates; (b) improve the statistical estimates of these estimated rates; and (c) maintain astronaut privacy. Here we describe a nd demonstrate such a tool. METHODS We devised a system that models incidence a nd mortality rates rather than calculating them directly. This ha s the advantage of using all the available data to derive the estimates, lea ding to rates that a re not attributable to any one individual, a nd a re a s numerically stable a s they can be given the extremely limited data. The system models disease endpoints using a Poisson regression model with exposure density (measured in person-years) a s a n offset term. By doing so the model is estimating event counts per person-year, equivalent to modeling the rates directly. It uses a standard (pre-specified)set of covariates; the system does not engage in “model-building” as model parsimony is not the goa l. Instead, it is explicitly recognized that if a covariate is not statistically significant a nd not a confounder then it will likely have very little effect on the estimate of the incidence a nd mortality rates. Users are able to specify the disease endpoint of interest and the covariates over which they would like to stratify. The system then uses the resulting model to compute the estimated rates for the user-chosen configuration of variables as visualizes those either over an age range within a specified time-period, or over time for astronauts with a specified age range. RESULTS The first iteration of the tool computes incidence a nd mortality rates for cardiovascular conditions and cancers. Code ha s been developed to retrieve the appropriate data from the IMPALA analysis platform, compute the models for incidence a nd mortality, a nd then use those models to generate the corresponding rate curves. A companion graphical user interface allows the user to specify the curves and visualize the results. CONCLUSIONS It is important to note that the rapid surveillance tool described here is neither meant to be a definitive assessment of the incidence or mortality of any particular disease or condition in the astronaut population, nor is it meant to be used for research purposes. Rather, it is meant as an early indicator that in-depth investigation may be warranted. By automating a repetitive process and leveraging carefully curated astronaut health outcomes, the tool makes possible a rapid “first look” into known areas of concern, and, if used judiciously, may surface new areas of concern for long-term astronaut health. This work is supported in part by the Translational Research Institute for Space Health (TRISH) through NASA Cooperative Agreement NNX16AO69A.

R J Reynolds↗

Confusion Noise Level Due to Galactic and Extragalactic Binaries

We have revised our earlier rough estimate of the combined galactic and extragalactic binary confusion noise level curve for gravitational waves. This was done to correct some numerical errors and to allow for roughly three frequency bins worth of information about weaker sources being lost for each galactic binary signal that is removed from the data. The results are still based on the spectral amplitude estimates for different types of galactic binaries reported by Hils et al in 1990, and assume that the gravitational wave power spectral densities for other galaxies are proportional to the optical luminosities. The estimated confusion noise level drops to the LISA instrumental noise level at between roughly 3 and 8 MHz.

Bender, Peter L.↗

Analysis of Satellite-to-Satellite Tracking (SST) and altimetry data from GEOS-C

Radar altimetry and satellite-to-satellite (SST) range and range rate tracking measurements were used to infer the exterior gravitational field of the earth and the structure of the geoid from GEOS-C metric data. Under the SST analysis, a direct point-by-point estimate of gravity disturbance by means of a recursive filter with backward smoothing was attempted but had to be forsaken because of poor convergence. The adopted representation consists of a more or less uniform grid of discrete masses at a depth of approximately 400 km from the earth's surface. The layer is superimposed on a spherical harmonics model. The procedure for smoothing the altimetry and inferring the fine-structured gravity field over the Atlantic test area is described. The local disturbances are represented by means of a density layer. The altimeter height biases were first estimated by a least squares adjustment at orbital crossover points. After taking out the bias, long wavelength contributions from GEM-6 as well as a calibration correction were subtracted. The residual heights were then represented by a mass distribution beneath the earth's surface.

Wong, L.↗

Eliminating Obliquity Error from the Estimation of Ionospheric Delay in a Satellite-Based Augmentation System

Current satellite-based augmentation systems estimate ionospheric delay using algorithms that assume the electron density of the ionosphere is non-negligible only in a thin shell located near the peak of the actual profile. In its initial operating capability, for example, the Wide Area Augmentation System incorporated the thin shell model into an estimation algorithm that calculates vertical delay using a planar fit. Under disturbed conditions or at low latitude where ionospheric structure is complex, however, the thin shell approximation can serve as a significant source of estimation error. A recent upgrade of the system replaced the planar fit algorithm with an algorithm based upon kriging. The upgrade owes its success, in part, to the ability of kriging to mitigate the error due to this approximation. Previously, alternative delay estimation algorithms have been proposed that eliminate the need for invoking the thin shell model altogether. Prior analyses have compared the accuracy achieved by these methods to the accuracy achieved by the planar fit algorithm. This paper extends these analyses to include a comparison with the accuracy achieved by kriging. It concludes by examining how a satellite-based augmentation system might be implemented without recourse to the thin shell approximation.

delay estimation↗

Spatial decay of electromagnetic waves from hypervelocity impact plasmas

Due to the high kinetic energy of impactors in space, hypervelocity impacts on spacecraft can ablate spacecraft material and produce plasmas. These plasmas have been observed in ground-based experiments to produce electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) and are suspected to be a cause of spacecraft anomalies. The initial EMP that is produced after plasma formation is replicated using a 2D electromagnetic plasma simulation, consisting of a discontinuous Galerkin, particle-in-cell (DG-PIC) framework. The spontaneous formation of EMPs from an initial quasineutral plasma is consistent with previous works and show behavior similar to that of waves emitted by antennas. The EMP emits from the plasma with a frequency less than the plasma frequency associated with the point of maximum density, showing the importance of the density gradient, and the far-field region of the “plasma antenna” is estimated. From the proportionality between plasma frequency and EMP frequency, there is a direct correlation between plasma density and radiation. Finally, as the plasma density decreases, the EMP frequency decreases, which suggests that several observable phenomena, such as optical flashes, radio frequency emission, and microwave emission, all result from the same plasma-related mechanism within a single hypervelocity impact.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Limitations to modeling the thermosphere and exosphere

Correlations were noted between solar 10cm radio flux, the indices of geomagnetic activity, and what happens in the atmosphere. There are also correlations between events in the troposphere and density in the thermosphere. Gravity waves in the thermosphere are not handled in existing models. A reasonable estimate is that they contribute perhaps ten percent to the deviation between model density values and the effective density as it influences satellite orbital motion. Another factor is atmospheric composition which influences density through the different scale heights of components of different molecular weight in this regime.

Slowey, John↗

ULF Wave-Associated Density Irregularities and Scintillation at the Equator

This paper presents independent multi-instrument observations that address the physical mechanisms of how ultralow-frequency (ULF) wave-associated electric fields initiate ionospheric density fluctuation and scintillation at the equator. Since the magnetic field at the equator is entirely embedded in a relatively high-collision and high-conductivity medium, the condition may not be possible for the geomagnetic field to fluctuate due to ULF wave activity. This implies that the fluctuating electric field at the equator may not be produced through equatorial dynamo action due to fluctuating magnetic fields. Instead, the electric field penetrates from high latitudes and produces fluctuating magnetic field as well as modulates the vertical drift and hence causes the density to fluctuate at the equatorial region. We demonstrate this by estimating the ULF associated fluctuating electric field at high latitudes and at the equatorial region by applying the appropriate attenuation factor as it penetrates to lower latitudes. The periodicity of both electric field and density fluctuations appears to be between 6 and 9 min, which is a typical period of ULF waves in the Pc5 range. Because of its large amplitude and long periods compared to other ULF wave frequency bands, the Pc5 wave-associated electric field, which can even be estimated using magnetograms with low sensitivity and low sampling rate (e.g., 1 min), can easily penetrate to the lower latitude region and produce significant ionospheric density fluctuations that can be strong enough to create scintillation at the equatorial region.

Yizengaw, E.↗

TP099-CT-800DR Comparison Between SIRZ-2 and Surface Fit Method ($ρ_{e},Ζ_{e}$) Estimation

The primary objective of this test plan is to acquire dual-energy computed tomography (CT) data of 33 well-known specimens using the Leidos Reveal CT-80DR+ baggage scanner housed at LLNL (hereafter referred to as CT-80DR). These data sets will allow us to compare, for each specimen, the accuracy and precision of electron density ($ρ_{e}$) and effective atomic number ($Z_{e}$) estimates obtained from two different algorithmic methods— from TSL’s surface fits and from LLNL’s SIRZ-2 decomposition. A secondary objective is to determine how often it is necessary to acquire CT-80DR spectral response information.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Simple self-consistent method for excited states in density functional theory to characterize defect-derived behavior in wide-band-gap-based microelectronic materials

This final report summarizes the results of the Laboratory Direct Research and Development (LDRD) Project Number 229740. Wide band gap semiconductors such as gallium nitride (GaN) have features highly desirable for multiple mission electronic applications. Realization of their potential requires atomic-scale understanding of electronic behavior. The principal experimental tools for electronically probing defects in GaN are chemically undifferentiating and lack a practical theoretical counterpart needed to identify and characterize specific defects. This project investigated whether a simple idea for modeling defect excited states and their associated photoluminescence (PL) energies is viable, as a path to accelerate the understanding of defect behavior and gain valuable insights into engineering new electronic materials and devices. The research implemented a non-self-consistent total-energy evaluation of a Koopmans-type estimation of an excited electronic state energy in density functional theory (DFT) calculations, and proceeded to design, implement, and assess a self-consistent method for computing excited states based upon an OCcupation-Constrained-DFT (occ-DFT). The occ-DFT was verified in test calculations of defect excited states and validated against well-characterized PL data for 3d transition metal defects in GaN. The method proved stable and robust in computing excited states and gave accurate predictions compared to experimental PL data. The combined ground state/excited-state capability proved capable of chemically differentiating defect species in GaN. In application to 3d dopants in GaN, we reinterpreted extensive experimental literature, proposed new defects as prospective candidates for use in quantum information applications, and outlined design strategies to create and exploit these potentially useful functional defects in GaN.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

HCNH(+) - A new interstellar molecular ion

The first interstellar detection of HCNH(+) is reported. The J = 1-0, 2-1, and 3-2 rotational transitions of this molecule at 74, 148, and 222 GHz have been observed toward Sgr B2. Using a large velocity gradient model calculation, the column density of HCNH(+) is found to be about 4 x 10 to the 14th/sq cm, about one order of magnitude less than that estimated for HCO(+) and HCN in this source. Such a column density implies a fractional abundance of at least one to several orders of magnitude larger than predicted by numerous ion-molecule models. Coupled with a relatively low abundance of HCN and a small HNC/HCN ratio, this suggests that HCNH(+) is not channeled into HCN or HNC as rapidly as thought.

Ziurys, L. M.↗

Best Practices for Shielding Analyses of Activated Metals and Spent Resins from Reactor Operation

This report investigated best practices for performing shielding evaluations of Type B waste packages, as defined in 10 CFR Part 71 regulations on packaging and transportation of radioactive material, or packages for which the contents are not defined before loading and may include a broad range of nuclides, geometries, and non-fuel materials. The following non-fuel waste streams were analyzed: Activated metals from decommissioned commercial power reactors, including Type 304 stainless steel, reactor vessel steel, and Inconel, Control blades from boiling water reactors, Neutron-activated corrosion products on surfaces of activated metals, and Spent resins from power plant operations. Measured elemental compositions, including major constituents and impurities, for steel and Inconel samples from commercial power reactors were used in activation calculations to determine radionuclide inventories in activated metals. For a simplified cask model, 60 Co contribution to the total external package dose rate at 30 days after shutdown varied from approximately 60% to 95%, depending on the activated metal, initial cobalt impurity concentration in the metal, and the thickness of the overpack gamma shield. Its maximum contribution to the total external package dose rate of approximately 100% was reached within the time interval of 2 to 5 years after shutdown and was maintained for up to 45 to 60 years after shutdown, depending on material, initial cobalt impurity concentration, and shield thickness. Thereafter, the 60 Co contribution to external package dose rate decreased with increasing decay time. Cobalt-60 is primarily produced by neutron reactions with the cobalt impurity in steel and Inconel. Other important radionuclides in activated metals contributing to package external dose rate are radionuclides with relatively short decay times, including 51 Cr, 59 Fe, 58 Co, and 54 Mn. These radionuclides may be represented as an equivalent 60 Co activity/source because 60 Co gamma ray emissions are bounding in terms of source strength and energy to other important radionuclides identified in the analyzed activated metals. Approaches for modeling the neutron-activated corrosion products that may be attached to activated reactor components were analyzed in this report. It was demonstrated that a surface source is more conservative than a uniform volumetric source for the treatment of neutron-activated corrosion products with respect to external package dose rates. An analysis of the maximum radionuclide loadings reported on spent resins identified the radionuclides 137 Cs, 60 Co, 134 Cs, 65 Zn, and 58 Co as the primary contributors to external package dose rate. For a resin cooled for 3.08 years, the external package dose rate was entirely produced by the reported 137 Cs and 60 Co inventory. The neutron sources from actinides found on spent resins or activated metals produced negligible dose rates and may be ignored in dose rate analyses. Effects of idealized waste material, source geometry, and spatial material/source distributions on external package dose rates were determined based on dose rate results for a simplified cask model under normal conditions of transport. Type 304 stainless steel, zirconium, and aluminum with adjusted mass densities based on a maximum content weight were analyzed for material modeling effects on external package dose rate. These materials produced identical external package dose rates within the statistical uncertainties of the dose rate estimates. Among four different source geometry configurations with homogeneous material of different mass densities, uniform volumetric source distribution, and the same source strength, the geometry configuration with lowest mass density (i.e., minimum self-shielding effect among the four cases) was most conservative. Spatial source distributions that better represent localized peak 60 Co activity values were more conservative than a uniform volumetric source distribution, assuming the same weight and total source strength per package. The increase in external dose rate caused by localized source peaks can be as much as the ratio between source peak activity density to average activity density, depending on the location of the activated metal with peak activity density. Therefore, the shielding analysis may be simplified if localized peak activities and the average activity per package can be measured/determined and documented at the time of cask loading. For simplicity, external package dose rates may be determined based on average source activity and a uniform volumetric source distribution. The dose rate results from that calculation model multiplied by the ratio of peak activity density to average activity density will produce maximum dose rate values for conservative estimates.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Maxwell currents under thunderstorms

Time variations observed in thunderstorm electric fields may be interpreted in terms of a total Maxwell current density, varying slowly with time in the intervals between lightning discharges, which can be used to estimate and map thunderstorms. Using the quasi-static behavior of the Maxwell current density, an expression is derived for the field-dependent current density under a thunderstorm during the field recovery following a lightning discharge. Values of air conductivity under the small storm which range from 2 to 6 x 10 to the -13th mho/m are inferred. Data are presented which indicate that the area-average Maxwell current is not usually affected by lightning, and instead varies slowly throughout the evolution of the storm. In light of this, it is suggested that cloud electrification processes probably do not depend on the cloud electric field as much as on the more slowly varying storm dynamics and meteorological structure.

Krider, E. P.↗

Mars - VLA observations of the northern hemisphere and the north polar region at wavelengths of 2 and 6 cm

Calculations based on 2- and 6-cm observations of Mars with the A configuration of the VLA have yielded a whole-disk effective dielectric constant of 2.34 + or - 0.05, implying a subsurface density of 1.24 + or - 0.11 g/cu cm at 2 cm, as well as 1.45 + or - 0.10 g/cu cm effective density and 2.70 + or - 0.10 dielectric constant at 6 cm. These parameters have also been estimated as a function of latitude over the 15 deg S - 60 deg N range; subsurface radio absorption length was estimated to be about 15 wavelengths at most of these latitudes. Most of the subsurface density calculations yielded results in the 1-2-g/cu cm range, implying that the subsurface is not very different from the surface observed by Viking and Mariner spacecraft; the decrease in correlation with depth is in keeping with slow variation of the subsurface in the near-subsurface region.

Rudy, Donald J.↗