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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

A Guide for Public Utility Commissions: Building Internal Technical Capacity and Recruiting Talent for Grid Resilience

This guide offers insight into how PUCs can strategically expand their technical workforce to meet evolving gird resilience demands. It outlines critical skill sets needed to support informed regulatory decision-making around resilience, such as modeling and weather forecasting, electric power systems analysis, and advanced data interpretation. In addition, it provides strategies for developing technical talent both internally and through additional recruitment efforts. Two appendices provide a list of grid resilience training resources and a compendium of sample job descriptions that reflect grid resilience technical expertise for PUC consideration.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Machine learning models for rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity prediction

Reproductive toxicity is one of the prominent endpoints in the risk assessment of environmental and industrial chemicals. Due to the complexity of the reproductive system, traditional reproductive toxicity testing in animals, especially guideline multigeneration reproductive toxicity studies, take a long time and are expensive. Therefore, machine learning, as a promising alternative approach, should be considered when evaluating the reproductive toxicity of chemicals. We curated rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity testing data of 275 chemicals from ToxRefDB (Toxicity Reference Database) and developed predictive models using seven machine learning algorithms (decision tree, decision forest, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, linear discriminant analysis, and logistic regression). A consensus model was built based on the seven individual models. An external validation set was curated from the COSMOS database and the literature. The performances of individual and consensus models were evaluated using 500 iterations of 5-fold cross-validations and the external validation data set. The balanced accuracy of the models ranged from 58% to 65% in the 5-fold cross-validations and 45%–61% in the external validations. Prediction confidence analysis was conducted to provide additional information for more appropriate applications of the developed models. The impact of our findings is in increasing confidence in machine learning models. We demonstrate the importance of using consensus models for harnessing the benefits of multiple machine learning models (i.e., using redundant systems to check validity of outcomes). While we continue to build upon the models to better characterize weak toxicants, there is current utility in saving resources by being able to screen out strong reproductive toxicants before investing in vivo testing. The modeling approach (machine learning models) is offered for assessing the rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity of chemicals. Our results suggest that machine learning may be a promising alternative approach to evaluate the potential reproductive toxicity of chemicals.

consensus model↗

Effects of noise on the performance of a memory decision response task

An investigation has been made to determine the effects of noise on human performance. Fourteen subjects performed a memory-decision-response task in relative quiet and while listening to tape recorded noises. Analysis of the data obtained indicates that performance was degraded in the presence of noise. Significant increases in problem solution times were found for impulsive noise conditions as compared with times found for the no-noise condition. Performance accuracy was also degraded. Significantly more error responses occurred at higher noise levels; a direct or positive relation was found between error responses and noise level experienced by the subjects.

Lawton, B. W.↗

Evaluation of change detection techniques for monitoring coastal zone environments

Procedures for detecting changes in Landsat multispectral scanning imagery of coastal zone environments are discussed. Four detection procedures are examined: a comparison of independently produced spectral classifications; a classification of a multispectral difference data set; a single analysis of a multidate data set; and a maximum likelihood classification using multistage decision logic. The relatively complex maximum likelihood classification technique was found to yield results closest to those obtained with the comparison of independently produced spectral classifications, the chosen standard.

Weismiller, R. A.↗

The value of volume and growth measurements in timber sales management of the National Forests

This paper summarizes work performed in the estimation of gross social value of timber volume and growth rate information used in making regional harvest decisions in the National Forest System. A model was developed to permit parametric analysis. The problem is formulated as one of finding optimal inventory holding patterns. Public timber management differs from other inventory holding problems in that the inventory, itself, generates value over time in providing recreational, aesthetic and environmental goods. 'Nontimber' demand estimates are inferred from past Forest Service harvest and sales levels. The solution requires a description of the harvest rates which maintain the optimum inventory level. Gross benefits of the Landsat systems are estimated by comparison with Forest Service information gathering models. Gross annual benefits are estimated to be $5.9 million for the MSS system and $7.2 million for the TM system.

Lietzke, K. R.↗

Formal and heuristic system decomposition methods in multidisciplinary synthesis

The multidisciplinary interactions which exist in large scale engineering design problems provide a unique set of difficulties. These difficulties are associated primarily with unwieldy numbers of design variables and constraints, and with the interdependencies of the discipline analysis modules. Such obstacles require design techniques which account for the inherent disciplinary couplings in the analyses and optimizations. The objective of this work was to develop an efficient holistic design synthesis methodology that takes advantage of the synergistic nature of integrated design. A general decomposition approach for optimization of large engineering systems is presented. The method is particularly applicable for multidisciplinary design problems which are characterized by closely coupled interactions among discipline analyses. The advantage of subsystem modularity allows for implementation of specialized methods for analysis and optimization, computational efficiency, and the ability to incorporate human intervention and decision making in the form of an expert systems capability. The resulting approach is not a method applicable to only a specific situation, but rather, a methodology which can be used for a large class of engineering design problems in which the system is non-hierarchic in nature.

Bloebaum, Christina L.↗

Using Dedal to share and reuse distributed engineering design information

The overall goal of the project is to facilitate the reuse of previous design experience for the maintenance, repair and redesign of artifacts in the electromechanical engineering domain. An engineering team creates information in the form of meeting summaries, project memos, progress reports, engineering notes, spreadsheet calculations and CAD drawings. Design information captured in these media is difficult to reuse because the way design concepts are referred to evolve over the life of a project and because decisions, requirements and structure are interrelated but rarely explicitly linked. Based on protocol analysis of the information seeking behavior of designer's, we defined a language to describe the content and the form of design records and implemented this language in Dedal, a tool for indexing, modeling and retrieving design information. We first describe the approach to indexing and retrieval in Dedal. Next we describe ongoing work in extending Dedal's capabilities to a distributed environment by integrating it with World Wide Web. This will enable members of a design team who are not co-located to share and reuse information.

Baya, Vinod↗

Cognitive Task Analysis of Business Jet Pilots' Weather Flying Behaviors: Preliminary Results

This report presents preliminary findings from a cognitive task analysis (CTA) of business aviation piloting. Results describe challenging weather-related aviation decisions and the information and cues used to support these decisions. Further, these results demonstrate the role of expertise in business aviation decision-making in weather flying, and how weather information is acquired and assessed for reliability. The challenging weather scenarios and novice errors identified in the results provide the basis for experimental scenarios and dependent measures to be used in future flight simulation evaluations of candidate aviation weather information systems. Finally, we analyzed these preliminary results to recommend design and training interventions to improve business aviation decision-making with weather information. The primary objective of this report is to present these preliminary findings and to document the extended CTA methodology used to elicit and represent expert business aviator decision-making with weather information. These preliminary findings will be augmented with results from additional subjects using this methodology. A summary of the complete results, absent the detailed treatment of methodology provided in this report, will be documented in a separate publication.

Latorella, Kara↗

Models of Human Information Requirements: "When Reasonable Aiding Systems Disagree"

Aircraft flight management and Air Traffic Control (ATC) automation are under development to maximize the economy of flight and to increase the capacity of the terminal area airspace while maintaining levels of flight safety equal to or better than current system performance. These goals are being realized by the introduction of flight management automation aiding and operations support systems on the flight deck and by new developments of ATC aiding systems that seek to optimize scheduling of aircraft while potentially reducing required separation and accounting for weather and wake vortex turbulence. Aiding systems on both the flight deck and the ground operate through algorithmic functions on models of the aircraft and of the airspace. These models may differ from each other as a result of variations in their models of the immediate environment. The resultant flight operations or ATC commands may differ in their response requirements (e.g. different preferred descent speeds or descent initiation points). The human operators in the system must then interact with the automation to reconcile differences and resolve conflicts. We have developed a model of human performance including cognitive functions (decision-making, rule-based reasoning, procedural interruption recovery and forgetting) that supports analysis of the information requirements for resolution of flight aiding and ATC conflicts. The model represents multiple individuals in the flight crew and in ATC. The model is supported in simulation on a Silicon Graphics' workstation using Allegro Lisp. Design guidelines for aviation automation aiding systems have been developed using the model's specification of information and team procedural requirements. Empirical data on flight deck operations from full-mission flight simulation are provided to support the model's predictions. The paper describes the model, its development and implementation, the simulation test of the model predictions, and the empirical validation process. The model and its supporting data provide a generalizable tool that is being expanded to include air/ground compatibility and ATC crew interactions in air traffic management.

Corker, Kevin↗

An Overview of Space Exploration Simulation (Basis of Confidence) Documentation

Models and simulations (M&S) are critical resources in the exploration of space. They support program management, systems engineering, integration, analysis, test, and operations by providing critical information that supports key analyses and decisions (technical, cost and schedule). Consequently, there is a clear need to establish a solid understanding of M&S strengths and weaknesses, and the bounds within which they can credibly support decision making. In this presentation we will describe how development of simulation capability documentation will be used to form a Basis of Confidence (Basis of Confidence) for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) M&S. The process by which BOC documentation is developed will be addressed, as well as the structure and critical concepts that are essential for establishing credibility of NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) legacy M&S. We will illustrate the significance of BOC documentation in supporting decision makers and Accreditation Authorities in M&S risk management.

Bray, Alleen↗

Prospecting for In Situ Resources on the Moon and Mars Using Wheel-Based Sensors

The Apollo and Russian missions during 1970's were reviewed to rediscover the type and distribution of minerals on the Moon. This study revealed that the Moon is a relatively barren place in mineral content when compared with the Earth. Results from the Lunar minerals brought back to Earth, indicate that the Moon lacks water, hydroxyl ions, and carbon based minerals. Our approach to prospecting utilizes a vehicle with sensors embedded in a wheel that allow measurements while the vehicle is in motion. Once a change in soil composition is detected, decision making software stops the vehicle and analytical instruments perform a more definitive analysis of the soil. The focus of this paper is to describe the instrumentation and data from the wheel-based sensors.

moon↗

Exergy Analysis of Rocket Systems

Exergy is defined as the useful work available from a system in a specified environment. Exergy analysis allows for comparison between different system designs, and allows for comparison of subsystem efficiencies within system designs. The proposed paper explores the relationship between the fundamental rocket equation and an exergy balance equation. A previously derived exergy equation related to rocket systems is investigated, and a higher fidelity analysis will be derived. The exergy assessments will enable informed, value-based decision making when comparing alternative rocket system designs, and will allow the most efficient configuration among candidate configurations to be determined.

Gilbert, Andrew↗

NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 2: System Safety Concepts, Guidelines, and Implementation Examples

This is the second of two volumes that collectively comprise the NASA System Safety Handbook. Volume 1 (NASASP-210-580) was prepared for the purpose of presenting the overall framework for System Safety and for providing the general concepts needed to implement the framework. Volume 2 provides guidance for implementing these concepts as an integral part of systems engineering and risk management. This guidance addresses the following functional areas: 1.The development of objectives that collectively define adequate safety for a system, and the safety requirements derived from these objectives that are levied on the system. 2.The conduct of system safety activities, performed to meet the safety requirements, with specific emphasis on the conduct of integrated safety analysis (ISA) as a fundamental means by which systems engineering and risk management decisions are risk-informed. 3.The development of a risk-informed safety case (RISC) at major milestone reviews to argue that the systems safety objectives are satisfied (and therefore that the system is adequately safe). 4.The evaluation of the RISC (including supporting evidence) using a defined set of evaluation criteria, to assess the veracity of the claims made therein in order to support risk acceptance decisions.

Safety Case↗

Automated Pneumothorax Diagnosis using Deep Neural Networks

Thoracic ultrasound can provide information leading to rapid diagnosis of pneumothorax with improved accuracy over the standard physical examination and with higher sensitivity than anteroposterior chest radiography. However, the clinical We have Furthermore, remote environments, such as the battlefield or deep-space exploration, may lack expertise for diagnosing developed an automated image interpretation pipeline for the analysis of thoracic ultrasound data and the classification of pneumothorax events to provide decision support in such situations. Our pipeline consists of image preprocessing, data augmentation, and deep learning architectures for medical diagnosis. In this work, we demonstrate that robust, accurate interpretation of chest images and video can be achieved using deep neural networks. A number of novel image processing techniques were employed to achieve this result. Affine transformations were applied for data augmentation. Hyperparameters were optimized for learning rate, dropout regularization, batch size, and epoch iteration by a sequential model-based Bayesian approach. In addition, we utilized pretrained architecturesinterpretation of a patient medical image is highly operator dependent. certain pathologies., applying transfer learning and fine-tuning techniques to fully connected layers. Our pipeline yielded binary classification validation accuracies of 98.3% for M-mode images and 99.8% with B-mode video frames.

US Army collaboration↗

GOES I-M: A Retrospective Look at Image Navigation and Registration (INR), Jitter and Lessons Learned

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) I-M series of spacecraft was the second generation of United States meteorological observational platforms in geosynchronous orbit. They served as the principal Earth- viewing observational platforms for continuously monitoring dynamic weather events from the mid-1990s and into the 21st century. This paper will look back at the program framing key system attributes of the mission, which necessitated a multi-layered development approach to meet stringent meteorological instrument Line-of-Sight (LoS) pointing and pointing stability requirements. The overall approach involved understanding, correcting, and avoiding pointing errors across a broad frequency range including what would typically be called dynamic interaction and jitter. Background information will be provided covering the mission architecture and program drivers. The systems solution for man- aging and mitigating the deleterious influences of on-board disturbances in order to meet the challenging instrument LoS pointing and jitter requirements will be described, along with the ‘first of its kind’ Image Navigation and Registration system. A broad look back at the lessons learned that emerged from the GOES I- M experience will be presented, with the intent of capturing general and specific insights for developers of future missions having stringent payload instrument pointing requirements. These discussions will touch on such critical aspects as defining jitter and related pointing requirements, the importance of early system architectural decisions, understanding and reducing on-board disturbances, the balance of test and analysis, and the imperative for maximizing on-orbit operational flexibility in order to accommodate unexpected dynamic interactions.

Sudey, John↗

Merging Analytic Collaborative Frameworks with New Observing Strategies Toward a Digital Twin: Earth – Episodic Pulse Event Impacts on Ocean Carbon Cycle as an Example

Virtual representations of the Earth will allow us to address some of the most critical environmental issues of our time. Here, we show the first steps toward representation of riverine, estuarine, and coastal carbon processes to enable scenario driven “what-if” analyses of the carbon system and human footprint. Excess sediment and nutrient runoff from land-based human activities impact water quality and can pose serious threats to coastal and marine ecosystems. Episodic pulse events, such as extreme precipitation events, can increase the amount of nutrients entering estuaries and coastal regions, potentially leading to large phytoplankton blooms followed by anoxic conditions. Consequences of coastal runoff are predicted to increase with the higher intensity and frequency of extreme events. Beyond the threat to coastal ecosystems, recent findings suggest these episodic pulses might play a significant role for biological production influencing regional and global carbon fluxes and budgets. An improved understanding of these events through optimal, dynamic observing strategies will increase our knowledge of the land-ocean continuum and how regional events and nutrient fluxes affect the carbon cycle and ocean ecosystem. This conceptual framework enables focused science investigations by pairing data analytics and artificial intelligence tools (otherwise termed an Analytic Center Framework, ACF) with targeted measurement acquisition through distributed sensing and intelligent asset tasking (or New Observing Strategies, NOS). This NOS and ACF iterative approach acquires and integrates complementary and coincident satellite, in-situ and model data to build a more complete and in-depth picture of science phenomena. Specifically, Apache Science Data Analytic Platform (SDAP) is extended to incorporate relevant datasets for data access, harmonized analysis, and anomaly detection. When conditions are met for a likely pulse event, NASA’s D-SHIELD (Distributed Spacecraft with Heuristic Intelligence to Enable Logistical Decisions) tool is triggered to optimize asset overpass frequency and schedule observations for persistent monitoring. Targeted data is ingested by SDAP for enhanced investigation via iterative analysis until the trigger criteria is no longer met - steps toward a digital twin.

Laura Rogers↗

Lunar Instrument Data Integration Into the Virtual Reality Mission Simulation System for Decision Communication and Situational Awareness

In situ resource utilization (ISRU) technologies are a key advancement required to make human habitation on the Moon and Mars viable. The upcoming Volatiles Investigating Polar Exploration Rover (VIPER) mission will provide crucial correlations between volatiles and lunar geology to understand the water content available for ISRU on the moon. The mission will require the coordination of multi-disciplinary teams across the country making real time decisions based on rover instrument data. The virtual reality Mission Simulation System (vMSS) is a virtual reality platform designed at MIT by the Resource Exploration and Science of our Cosmic Environment (RESOURCE) team to provide teams with a collaboration interface for planetary missions like VIPER. Herein we determine the integration pathway for analog based datasets that are examples of VIPER's two main instruments, the near-infrared volatile spectrometer subsystem (NIRVSS) and the neutron spectrometer subsystem (NSS), into vMSS to provide the most valuable visualization tools. Focusing on improving situational awareness, decision making, reducing task load and incorporating comments from scientists working previous analogs and on the current VIPER mission, we recommend critical elements to implement into vMSS and the best approaches for data visualization. We present a review of relevant analogs and state of the art mission software. We have developed a design concept and path to flight of analysed instrument data integrated with data maps that allow for virtual manipulation and annotation between non-co-located team members. We focus on pre-mission mapping of a priori data for improved situational awareness, layering of analysed instrument data, correlative mapping and interactive capabilities for in-mission decision making, as well as archiving and annotation tools for post-mission analysis. Finally, we lay out the roadmap for the future development of immersive sample site visualization capabilities and the use of integrated instrument data in vMSS with automated temporal and geospatial planning.

Cody Alison Paige↗

Deployable sensor system using mesh networking and satellite communication

A sensor system may be configured for continuous operation in a low resource environment and/or in extreme environmental conditions. The sensor system may have sufficient processing capabilities to provide scientific computing for pre-processing, quality control, statistical analysis, event classification, data compression and corrections (e.g., spikes in the data), autonomous decisions and actions, triggering other nodes, and information assurance functions that provide data confidentiality, data integrity, authentication, and non-repudiation. The hardware may have both mesh networking and satellite and cellular communication capability, and may be available for relatively low cost. Such a network provides the flexibility to have potentially any number of nodes be completely independent from one another. Thus, the network may scale across a diverse terrain.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗