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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Analysis of Airport Ground Delay Program Decisions Using Data Mining Techniques

Air traffic service providers have to make decisions regarding changes to air traffic flow in the event of major weather disturbances and traffic congestions to maintain safety of the system. The behavior of the air traffic management system will be more predictable if consistent decisions are made under similar traffic and weather conditions. Consistency of deciding on control action depends on the weather and traffic conditions as well as accuracy in predicting these conditions. Weather parameters (defined in terms of forecast and actual weather and traffic conditions) on different days can be used to categorize days into days with little decision consistency, days with moderate decision consistency and days with high decision consistency. Four years of traffic, weather and ground delay program decisions data at major airports in the United States are used in the analysis. This paper examines performance of different data mining methods in the three regions of decision consistency. Not surprisingly, data mining methods have the best performance in the region of most decision consistency and have the poorest performance in the region of little decision consistency. In applications where data mining methods have differing performance in differing regions, it would be more useful to characterize the region specific performance instead of characterizing performance by a single parameter. Finally, the results show no significant variation in the performance of different data mining methods for this particular problem. The fact that different mining methods show no significant variation also provides further confidence in the results of data mining methods. Work in this abstract discusses initial results. This paper describes the results in terms of both forecast and actual environmental conditions and discusses how prediction errors impact decision consistency.

Kulkarni, Deepak↗

High Latitude Atmospheric Rivers: Teleconnections and Impacts

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow synoptic scale features that act as moisture transport vehicles by moving water vapor poleward. They are typically found in storm tracks and often have profound implications for regional hydroclimate. For high latitude locales such as Antarctica and the Arctic, ARs are fewer in number but often have an outsized impact by either producing significant snow accumulation events, or, depending on their thermal characteristics, initiating melt events on ice sheets, ice shelves, and sea ice. In this study, we apply both reanalysis and climate model data to evaluate high latitude ARs for both the Arctic and Antarctic in the context of teleconnections and modes of variability. Specifically, we fold in both MERRA-2 and ERA5 reanalysis as well as historical and climate change simulations from the CESM2 (Community Earth System Model, Version 2) and E3SMv2 (Energy Exascale Earth System Model, v2) with multiple ensemble members to better understand natural variability versus climate change signals. An overview of AR climatology and impacts will be presented, including a baseline uncertainty quantification analysis using data from ARTMIP (the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project). AR impacts during specific modes of variability will be characterized by diagnosing precipitation and boundary layer temperature associated with Ars influencing the cryosphere. Modes of variability investigated include the SAM (Southern Annular Mode), PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation), PSA2 (Pacific South American Mode 2), the IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole), and the AO (Arctic Oscillation).

Atmospheric Rivers↗

Using XR for Improving Scientific Discovery With Numerical Weather Models

Earth science (ES) digital twins will help us understand the complex interactions and interrelationships that make up our Earth system and the impacts of earth science phenomena on it. Our work addresses two underdeveloped areas in current ES digital twin work: improving the understanding and interaction with ES model outputs by using Virtual and Mixed Reality (XR) tools and improving the non-intuitive mapping of continuous ES natural phenomena to gridded reference frames in current numerical models. Traditionally, scientists working on ES view and analyze the results of calculated or measured observables with static 1-dimensional (1D), 2D or 3D plots displayed on flat computer screens or paper. Using such limited mediums, it can be very difficult to identify, track and understand the evolution of key features due to poor viewing angles and the nature of flat computer screens. In addition, numerical models, such as the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ES model, are almost exclusively formulated, visualized and analyzed in an Eulerian reference frame with fixed grid points in space and time. However, ES phenomena such as convective clouds, hurricanes and wildfire smoke plumes are visualized and analyzed in a Lagrangian reference frame: therefore it is often difficult and unnatural to understand these phenomena in relation to each other, visualized either in an Eulerian or Lagrangian context. In 3D visualizations, data generally takes one of three forms: gridded (e.g., voxelized) data, where space is divided into regions; point clouds, where data is represented as a set of points; and meshes, where objects are rendered as surfaces composed of small polygons (usually triangles). A gridded, Eulerian reference frame has been the default representation for the 2D visual analysis of atmospheric data in part because the numerical methods used to generate atmospheric model data in the first place use a gridded approach, with equations defining the relationships between the physical variables in each of a grid's cells across successive timesteps. In our work, we are particularly interested in data from GEOS. Another reason why gridded representations tend to be used for visualizing data from such models is because trajectories are difficult to interpret from representations on 2D surfaces, due to line-of-sight ambiguity. Instead of a fixed grid from GEOS, we embed a trajectory model to simulate particles' movement throughout a GEOS run. We then ingest these particle trajectories as animated point clouds with a NASA open source XR toolkit, the Mixed Reality Exploration Toolkit (MRET), and merge GEOS data with ES phenomena data onto one combined visualization that the user can intuitively interact with. Efficient rendering of arbitrarily large point clouds is an ongoing challenge being addressed by the computer science community, with the GPU-based optimizations and efficient GPU memory utilization a common theme of recent advances, especially for XR, where sustained high frame rate is mandatory to save the user from suffering due to simulation sickness. In this work, we describe and evaluate our progress in choosing and implementing appropriate methods for rendering arbitrarily large point clouds within MRET for XR. While tracking the XR headset enables the immersion of a user within a 3D scene of a data visualization, tracking of XR handheld controllers or user’s hands enables us to implement intuitive user interactions with the visualized datasets. Conventional tools require a user working with an ES visualization to conduct many interactions to commit their intended selections or manipulations with a visualized dataset; for example to specify a set of points in 3D space. Doing so in a 2D flat screen interface has traditionally required specifying a set of points in three distinct 2D coordinate systems (XY, XZ, and YZ), which is cumbersome. In other scientific domains, it has been shown that specifying or selecting a location or volume in XR using handheld controllers or tracked hands allows for greater speed and accuracy. We anticipate the same will hold true for atmospheric data, and we will share initial results of measuring the utility of such an interface. Notably, as the data being visualized is generated by GEOS as a prediction based on initial conditions, an intended application of our tool is to serve as part of an iterative feedback loop. Through XR, a scientist will review and manipulate a GEOS model run, modifying the conditions as needed to do subsequent runs of GEOS. Thereby, XR-based improvements to speed and accuracy of 3D tagging of points minimizes the effort required by both the scientist and the computer cluster conducting the necessary calculations.

Thomas Grubb↗

System and method for simulation-assisted additive manufacturing involving estimating anisotropic deformation

A simulation-assisted additive manufacturing system and method for generating an anisotropic compensation to account for non-uniform deformation due to additive manufacturing and service loading. The predicted deformation may not be fully defined. The present disclosure provides a system and method for estimating the missing deformation data through regression analysis. The present disclosure also provides an integrated framework where the various simulated-assisted design modules are configured for two-way communication and sharing access to changes to the model.

Kim, Seokpum↗

Progress in multirate digital control system design

A new methodology for multirate sampled-data control design based on a new generalized control law structure, two new parameter-optimization-based control law synthesis methods, and a new singular-value-based robustness analysis method are described. The control law structure can represent multirate sampled-data control laws of arbitrary structure and dynamic order, with arbitrarily prescribed sampling rates for all sensors and update rates for all processor states and actuators. The two control law synthesis methods employ numerical optimization to determine values for the control law parameters. The robustness analysis method is based on the multivariable Nyquist criterion applied to the loop transfer function for the sampling period equal to the period of repetition of the system's complete sampling/update schedule. The complete methodology is demonstrated by application to the design of a combination yaw damper and modal suppression system for a commercial aircraft.

Berg, Martin C.↗

Statistical Analysis of a Large Sample Size Pyroshock Test Data Set Including Post Flight Data Assessment

The Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra spacecraft was launched on an Atlas IIAS launch vehicle on its mission to observe planet Earth in late 1999. Prior to launch, the new design of the spacecraft's pyroshock separation system was characterized by a series of 13 separation ground tests. The analysis methods used to evaluate this unusually large amount of shock data will be discussed in this paper, with particular emphasis on population distributions and finding statistically significant families of data, leading to an overall shock separation interface level. The wealth of ground test data also allowed a derivation of a Mission Assurance level for the flight. All of the flight shock measurements were below the EOS Terra Mission Assurance level thus contributing to the overall success of the EOS Terra mission. The effectiveness of the statistical methodology for characterizing the shock interface level and for developing a flight Mission Assurance level from a large sample size of shock data is demonstrated in this paper.

Hughes, William O.↗

The development of methods for the prediction of primary creep behavior in metals

The applicability of a thermodynamic constitutive theory of deformation to the prediction of primary creep and creep strain relaxation behavior in metals is examined. Constitutive equations derived from the theory are subjected to a parametric analysis in order to determine the influence of several parameters on the curve forms generated by the equations. A computer program is developed which enables the solution of a generalized constitutive equation using experimental data as input. Several metals were tested to form a data base of primary creep and relaxation behavior. The extent to which these materials conformed to the constitutive equation showed wide variability, with the alloy Ti-6Al-4V exhibiting the most consistent results. Accordingly, most of the analysis is concentrated upon data from that alloy, although creep and relaxation data from all the materials tested are presented. Experimental methods are outlined as well as some variations in methods of analysis. Various theoretical and practical implications of the work are discussed.

Zerwekh, R. P.↗

Utilizing Multiple Datasets for Snow Cover Mapping

Snow-cover maps generated from surface data are based on direct measurements, however they are prone to interpolation errors where climate stations are sparsely distributed. Snow cover is clearly discernable using satellite-attained optical data because of the high albedo of snow, yet the surface is often obscured by cloud cover. Passive microwave (PM) data is unaffected by clouds, however, the snow-cover signature is significantly affected by melting snow and the microwaves may be transparent to thin snow (less than 3cm). Both optical and microwave sensors have problems discerning snow beneath forest canopies. This paper describes a method that combines ground and satellite data to produce a Multiple-Dataset Snow-Cover Product (MDSCP). Comparisons with current snow-cover products show that the MDSCP draws together the advantages of each of its component products while minimizing their potential errors. Improved estimates of the snow-covered area are derived through the addition of two snow-cover classes ("thin or patchy" and "high elevation" snow cover) and from the analysis of the climate station data within each class. The compatibility of this method for use with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data, which will be available in 2000, is also discussed. With the assimilation of these data, the resolution of the MDSCP would be improved both spatially and temporally and the analysis would become completely automated.

Tait, Andrew B.↗

Design sensitivity analysis using EAL. Part 2: Shape design parameters

A numerical implementation of shape design sensitivity analysis of built-up structures is presented, using the versatility and convenience of an existing finite element structural analysis code and its data base management system. This report is a continuation of a previous report on conventional design parameters. The finite element code used in the implementation presented is the Engineering Analysis Language (EAL), which is based on a hybrid analysis method. It has been shown that shape design sensitivity computations can be carried out using the database management system of EAL, without writing a separate program and a separate data base. The material derivative concept of continuum mechanics and an adjoint variable method of design sensitivity analysis are used to derive shape design sensitivity information of structural performances. A domain method of shape design sensitivity analysis and a design component method are used. Displacement and stress functionals are considered as performance criteria.

Dopker, B.↗

Assessment of Technologies for the Space Shuttle External Tank Thermal Protection System and Recommendations for Technology Improvement - Part III: Material Property Characterization, Analysis, and Test Methods

The objective of this report is to contribute to the independent assessment of the Space Shuttle External Tank Foam Material. This report specifically addresses material modeling, characterization testing, data reduction methods, and data pedigree. A brief description of the External Tank foam materials, locations, and standard failure modes is provided to develop suitable background information. A review of mechanics based analysis methods from the open literature is used to provide an assessment of the state-of-the-art in material modeling of closed cell foams. Further, this report assesses the existing material property database and investigates sources of material property variability. The report presents identified deficiencies in testing methods and procedures, recommendations for additional testing as required, identification of near-term improvements that should be pursued, and long-term capabilities or enhancements that should be developed.

Gates, Thomas S.↗

A study of the threshold method utilizing raingage data

The threshold method for estimation of area-average rain rate relies on determination of the fractional area where rain rate exceeds a preset level of intensity. Previous studies have shown that the optimal threshold level depends on the climatological rain-rate distribution (RRD). It has also been noted, however, that the climatological RRD may be composed of an aggregate of distributions, one for each of several distinctly different synoptic conditions, each having its own optimal threshold. In this study, the impact of RRD variations on the threshold method is shown in an analysis of 1-min rainrate data from a network of tipping-bucket gauges in Darwin, Australia. Data are analyzed for two distinct regimes: the premonsoon environment, having isolated intense thunderstorms, and the active monsoon rains, having organized convective cell clusters that generate large areas of stratiform rain. It is found that a threshold of 10 mm/h results in the same threshold coefficient for both regimes, suggesting an alternative definition of optimal threshold as that which is least sensitive to distribution variations. The observed behavior of the threshold coefficient is well simulated by assumption of lognormal distributions with different scale parameters and same shape parameters.

Short, David A.↗

Geometry and mass model of ionizing radiation experiments on the LDEF satellite

Extensive measurements related to ionizing radiation environments and effects were made on the LDEF satellite during its mission lifetime of almost 6 years. These data, together with the opportunity they provide for evaluating predictive models and analysis methods, should allow more accurate assessments of the space radiation environment and related effects for future missions in low Earth orbit. The LDEF radiation dosimetry data is influenced to varying degrees by material shielding effects due to the dosimeter itself, nearby components and experiments, and the spacecraft structure. A geometry and mass model is generated of LDEF, incorporating sufficient detail that it can be applied in determining the influence of material shielding on ionizing radiation measurements and predictions. This model can be used as an aid in data interpretation by unfolding shielding effects from the LDEF radiation dosimeter responses. Use of the LDEF geometry/mass model, in conjunction with predictions and comparisons with LDEF dosimetry data currently underway, will also allow more definitive evaluations of current radiation models for future mission applications.

Colborn, B. L.↗

NASA C-17 Usage Overview

The usage and integrated vehicle health management of the NASA C-17. Propulsion health management flight objectives for the aircraft include mapping of the High Pressure Compressor in order to calibrate a Pratt and Whitney engine model and the fusion of data collected from existing sensors and signals to develop models, analysis methods and information fusion algorithms. An additional health manage flight objective is to demonstrate that the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion Systems Simulation engine model can successfully execute in real time onboard the C-17 T-1 aircraft using engine and aircraft flight data as inputs. Future work will address aircraft durability and aging, airframe health management, and propulsion health management research in the areas of gas path and engine vibration.

Miller, Christopher R.↗

Dynamical Studies of the Middle Atmosphere Using High Resolution Doppler Imager Observations

This report summarizes the activities of NASA grant NAG5-11068, "Dynamicai Studies of the Middle Atmosphere Using High Resolution Doppler Imager Observations." The High Resolution Doppler Imager (HRDI) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) has been providing direct measurements of the Earth's horizontal wind field in the stratosphere, mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Mesospheric temperatures, ozone, and O((sup 1) D) densities, and stratospheric aerosol extinctions coefficients, are also retrieved. The goal of HRDI is to measure the vector winds in the stratosphere (10-40 km), mesosphere, and lower thermosphere (approximately 50-120 km) during the day, and the lower thermosphere at night (approximately 95 km) to an accuracy of 5 m/s. The horizontal wind vector is measured by observing the Doppler shift of rotational lines of molecular oxygen along two lines of sight. In addition to winds, temperatures and volume emission rates are determined in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere, from which ozone and O((sup 1) D) concentrations can be derived, and aerosol scattering coefficients are determined in the stratosphere. UARS was launched on September 12, 1991, into a 585-km circular orbit inclined 57 degrees to the equator HRDI was activated September 28, 1991 and following a period of checkout and adjustment of the instrument parameters, scientific observations began November 2, 199 1. HRDI operated nearly continuously from launch until April 1995. At that time the UARS solar array drive failed, forcing the instruments to time-share the available power. From July 1995 to July 1996 HRDI operated approximately 50% of the time. At that point, one of the three spacecraft batteries failed and from then until September 1998 the duty cycle was less than 20% per month, At that time it was determined that HRDI could operate during each daytime pass, which increased the daytime duty cycle to close to l00%, while nighttime operations were limited to about a week per month. In the fall of 1999, the second tape recorder failed requiring a real time contact with a TRDSS satellite to retrieve that data. This resulted in about 60% data collection efficiency. Finally, in the summer of 2000, the second star sensor failed requiring the spacecraft attitude to be controlled by a three axis magnetometer and sun sensor. This resulted in a loss of attitude knowledge but operations continue with the anticipation of correcting the attitude. A new method for determining the tide and mean structure from satellite data in conjunction with a new tidal model has been devised. For brevity, it shall be referred to as the TMAT or Tide-Mean Assimilation Technique. Most previous methods of tidal analysis are based on various ways of slicing the data set.

Skinner, Wilbert↗

Evaluation of Two Fractal Methods for Magnetogram Image Analysis

Fractal and multifractal techniques have been applied to various types of solar data to study the fractal properties of sunspots as well as the distribution of photospheric magnetic fields and the role of random motions on the solar surface in this distribution. Other research includes the investigation of changes in the fractal dimension as an indicator for solar flares. Here we evaluate the efficacy of two methods for determining the fractal dimension of an image data set: the Differential Box Counting scheme and a new method, the Jaenisch scheme. To determine the sensitivity of the techniques to changes in image complexity, various types of constructed images are analyzed. In addition, we apply this method to solar magnetogram data from Marshall Space Flight Centers vector magnetograph.

Stark, B.↗

Strength of tantalum to 276 GPa determined by two x-ray diffraction techniques using diamond anvil cells

Tantalum (Ta) is a metal that has useful properties that make it useful in extreme environments. It is therefore important to understand how Ta performs in such extreme conditions by accurately measuring its properties. In this work, the yield strength of tantalum has been measured at pressures up to 276 GPa using axial and radial x-ray diffraction (XRD) methods in diamond anvil cells (DAC). We measured strength using XRD in a radial DAC to 50 GPa, in an axial DAC to 60 GPa using diamonds with standard flat culets, and in a final experiment to 276 GPa using toroidal diamond anvils. The radial XRD data were refined using the Material Analysis Using Diffraction (MAUD) Rietveld software package to extract lattice strain and the yield strength. The axial data were refined using the General Structure Analysis System (GSAS) II and a linewidth method was used to calculate the yield strength. The yield strength measured near ambient pressure was found to be 0.5 GPa and increased with pressure up to 50 GPa, where the yield strength plateaued at a value of 2.4 GPa. At pressures above 60 GPa, the strength increased again to a maximum value of 9 GPa at the highest pressure of 276 GPa. Here, the data from the three experiments show good agreement between the methods and previously reported experimental data. This agreement illustrates the value of axial diffraction data for material strength determination and allows for measurements at multihundreds of GPa using toroidal DACs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SASS wind ambiguity removal by direct minimization

An objective analysis procedure is presented which combines Seasat-A satellite scatterometer (SASS) data with other available data on wind speeds by minimizing an objective function of gridded wind speed values. The functions are defined as the loss functions for the SASS velocity data, the forecast, the SASS velocity magnitude data, and conventional wind speed data. Only aliases closest to the analysis were included, and a method for improving the first guess while using a minimization technique and slowly changing the parameters of the problem is introduced. The model is employed to predict the wind field for the North Atlantic on Sept. 10, 1978. Dealiased SASS data is compared with available ship readings, showing good agreement between the SASS dealiased winds and the winds measured at the surface. Expansion of the model to take in low-level cloud measurements, pressure data, and convergence and cloud level data correlations is discussed.

Hoffman, R. N.↗

Improved Regression Analysis of Temperature-Dependent Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data

An improved approach is discussed that may be used to directly include first and second order temperature effects in the load prediction algorithm of a wind tunnel strain-gage balance. The improved approach was designed for the Iterative Method that fits strain-gage outputs as a function of calibration loads and uses a load iteration scheme during the wind tunnel test to predict loads from measured gage outputs. The improved approach assumes that the strain-gage balance is at a constant uniform temperature when it is calibrated and used. First, the method introduces a new independent variable for the regression analysis of the balance calibration data. The new variable is designed as the difference between the uniform temperature of the balance and a global reference temperature. This reference temperature should be the primary calibration temperature of the balance so that, if needed, a tare load iteration can be performed. Then, two temperature{dependent terms are included in the regression models of the gage outputs. They are the temperature difference itself and the square of the temperature difference. Simulated temperature{dependent data obtained from Triumph Aerospace's 2013 calibration of NASA's ARC-30K five component semi{span balance is used to illustrate the application of the improved approach.

wind tunnel testing↗