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DOE OSTI2025

AI-based Cyber Event OSINT via Twitter Data

Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) is largely regarded as a necessary component for cybersecurity intelligence gathering to secure network systems. With the advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) and increasing usage of social media, like Twitter, we have a unique opportunity to obtain and aggregate information from social media. In this study, we propose an AI-based scheme capable of automatically pulling information from Twitter, filtering out security-irrelevant tweets, performing natural language analysis to correlate the tweets about each cybersecurity event (e.g., a malware campaign), and validating the information. This scheme has many applications, such as providing a means for security operators to gain insight into ongoing events and helping them prioritize vulnerabilities to deal with. To give examples of the possible uses, we present three case studies demonstrating the event discovery and investigation processes.

Dale, Dakota↗

NASA NTRS2001

Validation of Ocean Color Satellite Data Products in Under Sampled Marine Areas

The planktonic marine cyanobacterium, Trichodesmium sp., is broadly distributed throughout the oligotrophic marine tropical and sub-tropical oceans. Trichodesmium, which typically occurs in macroscopic bundles or colonies, is noteworthy for its ability to form large surface aggregations and to fix dinitrogen gas. The latter is important because primary production supported by N2 fixation can result in a net export of carbon from the surface waters to deep ocean and may therefore play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. However, information on the distribution and density of Trichodesmium from shipboard measurements through the oligotrophic oceans is very sparse. Such estimates are required to quantitatively estimate total global rates of N2 fixation. As a result current global rate estimates are highly uncertain. Thus in order to understand the broader biogeochemical importance of Trichodesmium and N2 fixation in the oceans, we need better methods to estimate the global temporal and spatial variability of this organism. One approach that holds great promise is satellite remote sensing. Satellite ocean color sensors are ideal instruments for estimating global phytoplankton biomass, especially that due to episodic blooms, because they provide relatively high frequency synoptic information over large areas. Trichodesmium has a combination of specific ultrastructural and biochemical features that lend themselves to identification of this organism by remote sensing. Specifically, these features are high backscatter due to the presence of gas vesicles, and absorption and fluorescence of phycoerythrin. The resulting optical signature is relatively unique and should be detectable with satellite ocean color sensors such as the Sea-Viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS).

Subramaniam, Ajit↗

DOE OSTI2017

Building thermal model development of typical house in U.S. for virtual storage control of aggregated building loads based on limited available information

A building thermal model is an essential component for achieving optimal control of a building’s heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC). A self-learning grey-box model has been developed by implementing data-driven techniques and utilizing limited available information about the building. In previous research, detailed foreknown knowledge/information, e.g. physical and thermal properties of building materials, as well as sufficient number of observation points, e.g. indoor temperature sensors in different zones, are available for making the decision of model structure and parameters searching range easier. The availability of measured data and a narrowed searching range of model parameters, e.g. resistance and capacity for each wall, made the adopted algorithms quickly achieve near optimal values, which closely approximate the actual heat transfer of a building. Meanwhile, the details of pre-processing of the key inputs were seldom explained. Compared to the previous research, in this study, the available information is assumed to be limited which can fill the requirement for large scale virtual storage control of real residential community in near future, where it may be impractically or over time-consuming to acquire the detailed information for each single house. The developed model is validated by comparing the results to measured data in a recently-built home typical of the southeastern United States.

Cui, Borui↗

DOE OSTI2025

Open Source Intelligence for Cybersecurity Events via Twitter Data

Dale, Dakota↗

DOE OSTI2022

Large-scale scenarios of electric vehicle charging with a data-driven model of control

Transportation electrification is forecast to bring millions of new electric vehicles to roads worldwide this decade. Planning to support those vehicles depends on detailed scenarios of their electricity demand in both uncontrolled and controlled or smart charging scenarios. In this work, we present a novel modeling approach to enable rapid generation of demand estimates that represent the impact of controlled charging for large-scale scenarios with millions of individual drivers. To model the effect of load modulation control on aggregate charging profiles, we propose a novel machine learning approach that replaces traditional optimization approaches. We demonstrate its performance modeling workplace charging control under a range of electricity rate schedules, achieving small errors (2.5%–4.5%) while accelerating computations by more than 4000 times. To generate the uncontrolled charging demand for scenarios with residential, workplace, and public charging we use statistical representations of a large data set of real charging sessions. We demonstrate the methodology by generating diverse sets of scenarios for California's charging demand in 2030 which consider multiple charging segments and controls, each run locally in under 50 s. We further demonstrate support for rate design by modeling the large-scale impact of a new, custom rate schedule for workplace charging.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effect of stereochemistry on nanoscale assembly of ABA triblock copolymers with crystallizable blocks

We report on the nanoscale assembly of poly(lactic acid)-b-poly(ethylene oxide)-b-poly(lactic acid) (PLA-PEO-PLA) triblock copolymers in water, focusing on the effect of stereochemistry, where the PLA blocks are statistical copolymers of l-lactide and d-lactide with l/d ratios of 100/0, 95/5, 90/10, 85/15, 75/25, and 50/50. Small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) shows a nearly constant d-spacing as concentration varies in triblock systems with l/d ratios of 90/10 and 95/5, which we attribute to inhomogeneity in the structure of these gels, supported by previous USANS and confocal microscopy studies. The SANS data fit well to a core-shell ellipsoid form factor model with a hard-sphere structure factor. Polymeric micelles with l/d ratios from 75/25 to 85/15 displayed very high aggregation numbers, consistent with a strong interaction between PLA chains and the enhanced storage modulus observed in rheological studies of these systems. While the 90/10 and 95/5 samples showed lower aggregation numbers, their SANS profiles shows close spacing between micelles, which may promote a high fraction of intermicellar bridging chains, also consistent with a higher storage modulus. Overall, these results provide insight into the micellar assembly behavior of block copolymers with a crystallizable block, and indicate that tuning stereochemistry of PLA-based block copolymers is an effective means of modifying micellar properties for specific applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Local-scale Arctic tundra heterogeneity affects regional-scale carbon dynamics

In northern Alaska nearly 65% of the terrestrial surface is composed of polygonal ground, where geomorphic tundra landforms disproportionately influence carbon and nutrient cycling over fine spatial scales. Process-based biogeochemical models used for local to Pan-Arctic projections of ecological responses to climate change typically operate at coarse-scales (1km 2 –0.5°) at which fine-scale (<1km 2 ) tundra heterogeneity is often aggregated to the dominant land cover unit. Here, we evaluate the importance of tundra heterogeneity for representing soil carbon dynamics at fine to coarse spatial scales. We leveraged the legacy of data collected near Utqiagvik, Alaska between 1973 and 2016 for model initiation, parameterization, and validation. Simulation uncertainty increased with a reduced representation of tundra heterogeneity and coarsening of spatial scale. Hierarchical cluster analysis of an ensemble of 21 st -century simulations reveals that a minimum of two tundra landforms (dry and wet) and a maximum of 4km 2 spatial scale is necessary for minimizing uncertainties (<10%) in regional to Pan-Arctic modeling applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Potential use of engineered nanoparticles in ocean fertilization for large-scale atmospheric carbon dioxide removal

Artificial ocean fertilization (AOF) aims to safely stimulate phytoplankton growth in the ocean and enhance carbon sequestration. AOF carbon sequestration efficiency appears lower than natural ocean fertilization processes due mainly to the low bioavailability of added nutrients, along with low export rates of AOF-produced biomass to the deep ocean. Here we explore the potential application of engineered nanoparticles (ENPs) to overcome these issues. Data from 123 studies show that some ENPs may enhance phytoplankton growth at concentrations below those likely to be toxic in marine ecosystems. ENPs may also increase bloom lifetime, boost phytoplankton aggregation and carbon export, and address secondary limiting factors in AOF. Life-cycle assessment and cost analyses suggest that net CO 2 capture is possible for iron, SiO 2 and Al 2 O 3 ENPs with costs of 2–5 times that of conventional AOF, whereas boosting AOF efficiency by ENPs should substantially enhance net CO 2 capture and reduce these costs. Therefore, ENP-based AOF can be an important component of the mitigation strategy to limit global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Fluid temperature predictions of geothermal borefields using load estimations via state observers

Fluid temperature predictions of geothermal borefields usually involves temporal superposition of its characteristic g-function, using load aggregation schemes to reduce computational times. Assuming that the ground has linear properties, it can be modeled as a linear state space system where the states are the aggregated loads. However, the application and accuracy of these models is compromised when the borefield is already operating and its load history is not registered or there are gaps in the data. This paper assesses the performance of state observers to estimate the borefield load history and obtain accurate fluid predictions. Results show that both Time-Varying Kalman Filter (TVKF) and Moving Horizon Estimator (MHE) provide predictions with average and maximum errors below 0.1 $^\circ C$ and 1 $^\circ C$ respectively. MHE outperforms TVKF in terms of n-step ahead output predictions and load history profile at the expenses of about 5 times more computational time.

Figueroa, Iago C.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of integrated assessment model hindcast experiments: a case study of the GCAM 3.0 land use module

Abstract. Hindcasting experiments (conducting a model forecast for a time period in which observational data are available) are being undertaken increasingly often by the integrated assessment model (IAM) community, across many scales of models. When they are undertaken, the results are often evaluated using global aggregates or otherwise highly aggregated skill scores that mask deficiencies. We select a set of deviation-based measures that can be applied on different spatial scales (regional versus global) to make evaluating the large number of variable–region combinations in IAMs more tractable. We also identify performance benchmarks for these measures, based on the statistics of the observational dataset, that allow a model to be evaluated in absolute terms rather than relative to the performance of other models at similar tasks. An ideal evaluation method for hindcast experiments in IAMs would feature both absolute measures for evaluation of a single experiment for a single model and relative measures to compare the results of multiple experiments for a single model or the same experiment repeated across multiple models, such as in community intercomparison studies. The performance benchmarks highlight the use of this scheme for model evaluation in absolute terms, providing information about the reasons a model may perform poorly on a given measure and therefore identifying opportunities for improvement. To demonstrate the use of and types of results possible with the evaluation method, the measures are applied to the results of a past hindcast experiment focusing on land allocation in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) version 3.0. The question of how to more holistically evaluate models as complex as IAMs is an area for future research. We find quantitative evidence that global aggregates alone are not sufficient for evaluating IAMs that require global supply to equal global demand at each time period, such as GCAM. The results of this work indicate it is unlikely that a single evaluation measure for all variables in an IAM exists, and therefore sector-by-sector evaluation may be necessary.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Future Building Archetypes for Los Angeles (2100 Projection)

This dataset (Data.zip) includes empirical and machine learning-generated building information for the Los Angeles urban region. The MAv1_LA.csv file provides the baseline 2015 building data while Final_IECC_LO_2100_GAN.csv represents generative adversarial network-projected urban morphologies for the year 2100. Building archetypes were created for both datasets (Basecase_LA_Archetype.csv and LA_Simulation_2100_GAN_Archetype.csv) using footprint area as the key aggregation variable. More details about the dataset are provided in the attached readme file (README_LA_Archetype_MAv1.txt)

AutoBEM↗

NASA NTRS1977

Chemical fractionation in the solar nebula

The sequence of condensation of minerals from a cooling gas of solar composition has been calculated from thermodynamic data over the pressure range 0.001-0.00001 atm, assuming that complete chemical equilibrium is maintained. The results suggest that the Ca-Al-rich inclusions Allende and other carbonaceous chondrites are aggregates of the highest temperature condensates. Complete condensation of these elements is followed, 100 deg later, by the onset of the crystallization of nickel-iron, forsterite and enstatite. Transport of Ca-Al-rich refractory condensates from one part of the nebula to another before the condensation of these lower-temperature phases may have been responsible for the refractory element fractionations between the different classes of chondrites and possibly for the inferred refractory element enrichment of the Moon. The temperature gap between the condensation temperatures of nickel-iron and forsterite increases with increasing total pressure. Because pressure and temperature probably increased with decreasing heliocentric distance in the solar nebula, Mercury may have accreted from a condensate assemblage having a higher metal/silicate ratio than Venus or Earth which may, in turn, have formed from less oxidized material than Mars.

Grossman, L.↗

NASA NTRS2001

A Survey of Complex Object Technologies for Digital Libraries

Many early web-based digital libraries (DLs) had implicit assumptions reflected in their architecture that the unit of focus in the DL (frequently "reports" or "e-prints") would only be manifested in a single, or at most a few, common file formats such as PDF or PostScript. DLs have now matured to the point where their contents are commonly no longer simple files. Complex objects in DLs have emerged from in response to various requirements, including: simple aggregation of formats and supporting files, bundling additional information to aid digital preservation, creating opaque digital objects for e-commerce applications, and the incorporation of dynamic services with the traditional data files. We examine a representative (but not necessarily exhaustive) number of current and recent historical web-based complex object technologies and projects that are applicable to DLs: Aurora, Buckets, ComMentor, Cryptolopes, Digibox, Document Management Alliance, FEDORA, Kahn-Wilensky Framework Digital Objects, Metadata Encoding & Transmission Standard, Multivalent Documents, Open eBooks, VERS Encapsulated Objects, and the Warwick Framework.

Nelson, Michael L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of PARASOL Observations with Polarized Reflectances Simulated Using Different Ice Habit Mixtures

Insufficient knowledge of the habit distribution and the degree of surface roughness of ice crystals within ice clouds is a source of uncertainty in the forward light scattering and radiative transfer simulations required in downstream applications involving these clouds. The widely used MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 ice microphysical model assumes a mixture of various ice crystal shapes with smooth-facets except aggregates of columns for which a moderately rough condition is assumed. When compared with PARASOL (Polarization and Anisotropy of Reflectances for Atmospheric Sciences coupled with Observations from a Lidar) polarized reflection data, simulations of polarized reflectance using smooth particles show a poor fit to the measurements, whereas very rough-faceted particles provide an improved fit to the polarized reflectance. In this study a new microphysical model based on a mixture of 9 different ice crystal habits with severely roughened facets is developed. Simulated polarized reflectance using the new ice habit distribution is calculated using a vector adding-doubling radiative transfer model, and the simulations closely agree with the polarized reflectance observed by PARASOL. The new general habit mixture is also tested using a spherical albedo differences analysis, and surface roughening is found to improve the consistency of multi-angular observations. It is suggested that an ice model incorporating an ensemble of different habits with severely roughened surfaces would potentially be an adequate choice for global ice cloud retrievals.

Cole, Benjamin H.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 9%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,MATHEMATICS AND COMPUT↗

DOE OSTI2023

Count Every Trip: Finding the Uncertainty in Energy Estimates Made from Inferred Travel Modes

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Travel Energy Consumption Uncertainty Based on Inferred Travel Mode and Sensed Travel Length

To properly inform transport policy and infrastructure changes, transportation related metrics need both measured values and uncertainties of those values. Travel monitoring smartphone apps can record people's travel behavior, but trip data quality is limited by sensor errors, user labeling rates and the accuracy of inference algorithms used for travel diary creation. We discuss the use of phone app recorded travel diary data to estimate energy consumption, and propose the use of propagation of variance to find error bars for such estimates. We define energy consumption for one trip as trip length times the energy intensity per distance unit of the travel mode used. We characterize trip length errors with relative error and inferred trip mode errors with confusion matrix columns. The resulting variances of each measurement are then propagated to the final calculated energy consumption. We tested our uncertainty methods on a dataset that used phone app data combined with prompted recall, consisting of 92,234 labeled trips for over 500,000 miles. Accounting for uncertainty using expected energy intensities and variance propagation gives a dataset-wide aggregate energy consumption percent error of about 8%, within one standard deviation from the truth. Future work could involve applying similar methods to other travel diary based metrics.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

NASA NTRS1992

Nonconservative force model parameter estimation strategy for TOPEX/Poseidon precision orbit determination

The TOPEX/Poseidon spacecraft was launched on August 10, 1992 to study the Earth's oceans. To achieve maximum benefit from the altimetric data it is to collect, mission requirements dictate that TOPEX/Poseidon's orbit must be computed at an unprecedented level of accuracy. To reach our pre-launch radial orbit accuracy goals, the mismodeling of the radiative nonconservative forces of solar radiation, Earth albedo an infrared re-radiation, and spacecraft thermal imbalances cannot produce in combination more than a 6 cm rms error over a 10 day period. Similarly, the 10-day drag modeling error cannot exceed 3 cm rms. In order to satisfy these requirements, a 'box-wing' representation of the satellite has been developed in which, the satellite is modelled as the combination of flat plates arranged in the shape of a box and a connected solar array. The radiative/thermal nonconservative forces acting on each of the eight surfaces are computed independently, yielding vector accelerations which are summed to compute the total aggregate effect on the satellite center-of-mass. Select parameters associated with the flat plates are adjusted to obtain a better representation of the satellite acceleration history. This study analyzes the estimation of these parameters from simulated TOPEX/Poseidon laser data in the presence of both nonconservative and gravity model errors. A 'best choice' of estimated parameters is derived and the ability to meet mission requirements with the 'box-wing' model evaluated.

Luthcke, S. B.↗