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Stress and Damage in Polymer Matrix Composite Materials Due to Material Degradation at High Temperatures

This report describes analytical methods for calculating stresses and damage caused by degradation of the matrix constituent in polymer matrix composite materials. Laminate geometry, material properties, and matrix degradation states are specified as functions of position and time. Matrix shrinkage and property changes are modeled as functions of the degradation states. The model is incorporated into an existing composite mechanics computer code. Stresses, strains, and deformations at the laminate, ply, and micro levels are calculated, and from these calculations it is determined if there is failure of any kind. The rationale for the model (based on published experimental work) is presented, its integration into the laminate analysis code is outlined, and example results are given, with comparisons to existing material and structural data. The mechanisms behind the changes in properties and in surface cracking during long-term aging of polyimide matrix composites are clarified. High-temperature-material test methods are also evaluated.

McManus, Hugh L.↗

High-Performance Acousto-Ultrasonic Scan System Being Developed

Acousto-ultrasonic (AU) interrogation is a single-sided nondestructive evaluation (NDE) technique employing separated sending and receiving transducers. It is used for assessing the microstructural condition and distributed damage state of the material between the transducers. AU is complementary to more traditional NDE methods, such as ultrasonic cscan, x-ray radiography, and thermographic inspection, which tend to be used primarily for discrete flaw detection. Throughout its history, AU has been used to inspect polymer matrix composites, metal matrix composites, ceramic matrix composites, and even monolithic metallic materials. The development of a high-performance automated AU scan system for characterizing within-sample microstructural and property homogeneity is currently in a prototype stage at NASA. This year, essential AU technology was reviewed. In addition, the basic hardware and software configuration for the scanner was developed, and preliminary results with the system were described. Mechanical and environmental loads applied to composite materials can cause distributed damage (as well as discrete defects) that plays a significant role in the degradation of physical properties. Such damage includes fiber/matrix debonding (interface failure), matrix microcracking, and fiber fracture and buckling. Investigations at the NASA Glenn Research Center have shown that traditional NDE scan inspection methods such as ultrasonic c-scan, x-ray imaging, and thermographic imaging tend to be more suited to discrete defect detection rather than the characterization of accumulated distributed micro-damage in composites. Since AU is focused on assessing the distributed micro-damage state of the material in between the sending and receiving transducers, it has proven to be quite suitable for assessing the relative composite material state. One major success story at Glenn with AU measurements has been the correlation between the ultrasonic decay rate obtained during AU inspection and the mechanical modulus (stiffness) seen during fatigue experiments with silicon carbide/silicon carbide (SiC/SiC) ceramic matrix composite samples. As shown in the figure, ultrasonic decay increased as the modulus decreased for the ceramic matrix composite tensile fatigue samples. The likely microstructural reason for the decrease in modulus (and increase in ultrasonic decay) is the matrix microcracking that commonly occurs during fatigue testing of these materials. Ultrasonic decay has shown the capability to track the pattern of transverse cracking and fiber breakage in these composites.

Roth, Don J.↗

Turn Your Half-Cut Cells for a Stronger Module

Here, we employ an existing model of crystalline silicon photovoltaic module cell fracture to explore the effect of cell size and orientation on their probability of fracture under module uniform loading. In addition, we also apply continuum damage mechanics to modify this model to consider the effect of cell fracture on the probability of subsequent cell fracture. We elucidate that cell fracture increases the probability of subsequent cell fracture and that rectangular modules containing half-cells aligned with the module's long orientation are much more robust against cell fracture than full-cell and half-cell short orientation modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Conserving asphalt resources: Rethinking rejuvenator performance evaluation through peptizing efficiency

Timely rejuvenation and restoration of asphalt are essential conservation practices that help preserve and extend the service life of roads, bridges, driveways, and parking lots. The performance of asphalt rejuvenators is often assessed based on their diffusion rates and softening power, yet these metrics alone fail to capture true rejuvenation potential. Here, this study integrates density functional theory (DFT) modeling with experimental analysis to show that rejuvenation effectiveness is primarily governed by molecular interactions with oxidized asphaltene nanoaggregates. DFT results revealed that amide- and unsaturated-chain compounds, such as hexadecanamide, oleic acid, and 9,17-octadecadienal, act cooperatively to disrupt π–π stacking and exfoliate asphaltene layers, reducing binding strength and enhancing dispersion. Unlike bulky, rigid molecules that remain trapped, these components remain mobile and repeatedly interact with multiple aggregation sites. Experimental validation using rheometry and FTIR confirmed that such molecularly compatible rejuvenators restore the binder flexibility and polydispersity, even when diffusion is relatively slow. Building on this mechanistic foundation, six rejuvenators (A2, A5, A7, A8, A9, and A10) were evaluated using a three-metric performance framework encompassing cracking resistance (Glover–Rowe parameter), UV stability, and surface hydrophobicity. Among the six rejuvenators evaluated, A9 exhibited the highest overall performance, reducing the Glover–Rowe cracking parameter by 85% (from 351 kPa to 53 kPa), demonstrating the greatest resistance to UV-induced aging with a stability index of 4.17 h·kPa⁻¹, and increasing surface hydrophobicity to a contact angle of 103.6°. Its superior performance is primarily attributed to its amide- and unsaturated-chain components, which act cooperatively to disrupt π–π stacking interactions and exfoliate asphaltene layers, thereby promoting molecular deagglomeration and enhancing long-term durability. These results shift the criteria for selecting rejuvenators: effective candidates must pair the electronic capability to unlock aged asphaltenes with sufficient structural stability to resist secondary aging and restore hydrophobicity. Restoring hydrophobicity is critical, as aging reduces the asphalt’s water repellency and increases water diffusion, which in turn accelerates moisture-related damage; consequently, a high-performing rejuvenator must effectively restore the binder’s hydrophobic characteristic. Collectively, these findings provide a framework for the rational design of next-generation of bio-based rejuvenators that enhance pavement longevity and promote long-term sustainability.

Aging↗

Face Sheet/Core Disbond Growth in Honeycomb Sandwich Panels Subjected to Ground-Air-Ground Pressurization and In-Plane Loading

Typical damage modes in light honeycomb sandwich structures include face sheet/core disbonding and core fracture, both of which can pose a threat to the structural integrity of a component. These damage modes are of particular interest to aviation certification authorities since several in-service occurrences, such as rudder structural failure and other control surface malfunctions, have been attributed to face sheet/core disbonding. Extensive studies have shown that face sheet/core disbonding and core fracture can lead to damage propagation caused by internal pressure changes in the core. The increasing use of composite sandwich construction in aircraft applications makes it vitally important to understand the effect of ground-air-ground (GAG) cycles and conditions such as maneuver and gust loads on face sheet/core disbonding. The objective of the present study was to use a fracture mechanics based approach developed earlier to evaluate the loading at the disbond front caused by ground-air-ground pressurization and in-plane loading. A honeycomb sandwich panel containing a circular disbond at one face sheet/core interface was modeled with three-dimensional (3D) solid finite elements. The disbond was modeled as a discrete discontinuity and the strain energy release rate along the disbond front was computed using the Virtual Crack Closure Technique (VCCT). Special attention was paid to the pressure-deformation coupling which can decrease the pressure load within the disbonded sandwich section significantly when the structure is highly deformed. The commercial finite element analysis software, Abaqus/Standard, was used for the analyses. The recursive pressure-deformation coupling problem was solved by representing the entrapped air in the honeycomb cells as filled cavities in Abaqus/Standard. The results show that disbond size, face sheet thickness and core thickness are important parameters that determine crack tip loading at the disbond front. Further, the pressure-deformation coupling was found to have an important load decreasing effect [6]. In this paper, a detailed problem description is provided first. Second, the analysis methodology is presented. The fracture mechanics approach used is described and the specifics of the finite element model, including the fluid-filled cavities, are introduced. Third, the initial model verification and validation are discussed. Fourth, the findings from a closely related earlier study [6] are summarized. These findings provided the basis for the current investigation. Fifth, an aircraft ascent scenario from 0 to 12192 m (0 to 40000 ft) is considered and the resulting crack tip loading at the disbond front is determined. In-plane loading to simulate maneuvers and gust conditions are also considered. Sixth, the results are shown for a curved panel, which was used to simulate potential fuselage applications. Finally, a brief summary of observations is presented and recommendations for improvement are provided.

Chen, Zhi M.↗

SNF Interim Storage Canister Corrosion and Surface Environment Investigations (FY22 Status Update)

High-level purpose of this work: This report summarizes work carried out by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) in the fiscal year 2022 (FY22) to evaluate the potential occurrence of stress corrosion cracking (SCC) on spent nuclear fuel (SNF) dry storage canisters. The U.S. currently lacks a repository for permanent disposal of SNF; thus, dry storage systems will be in use for much longer time periods than originally intended. Gap analyses by the US Department of Energy (DOE), the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), the Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board (NWTRB), and the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) have all determined that an improved understanding of the occurrence and risk of canister SCC is critical to demonstrating the safety of long-term dry storage. Should canister penetration by SCC occur, the containment boundary represented by the canister would be breached. A loss of the inert environment (helium) within the canister could occur and intrusion of air and moisture could react with and damage the fuel within the canister. For this reason, the DOE is funding an effort to evaluate the potential occurrence and consequences of dry storage canister SCC and to develop prevention, mitigation, and repair technologies for this degradation mechanism.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA GRC Fatigue Crack Initiation Life Prediction Models

Metal fatigue has plagued structural components for centuries, and it remains a critical durability issue in today's aerospace hardware. This is true despite vastly improved and advanced materials, increased mechanistic understanding, and development of accurate structural analysis and advanced fatigue life prediction tools. Each advance is quickly taken advantage of to produce safer, more reliable, more cost effective, and better performing products. In other words, as the envelope is expanded, components are then designed to operate just as close to the newly expanded envelope as they were to the initial one. The problem is perennial. The economic importance of addressing structural durability issues early in the design process is emphasized. Tradeoffs with performance, cost, and legislated restrictions are pointed out. Several aspects of structural durability of advanced systems, advanced materials and advanced fatigue life prediction methods are presented. Specific items include the basic elements of durability analysis, conventional designs, barriers to be overcome for advanced systems, high-temperature life prediction for both creep-fatigue and thermomechanical fatigue, mean stress effects, multiaxial stress-strain states, and cumulative fatigue damage accumulation assessment.

Arya, Vinod K.↗

Coupling Damage-Sensing Particles to the Digitial Twin Concept

The research presented herein is a first step toward integrating two emerging structural health management paradigms: digital twin and sensory materials. Digital twin is an emerging life management and certification paradigm whereby models and simulations consist of as-built vehicle state, as-experienced loads and environments, and other vehicle-specific history to enable high-fidelity modeling of individual aerospace vehicles throughout their service lives. The digital twin concept spans many disciplines, and an extensive study on the full domain is out of the scope of this study. Therefore, as it pertains to the digital twin, this research focused on one major concept: modeling specifically the as-manufactured geometry of a component and its microstructure (to the degree possible). The second aspect of this research was to develop the concept of sensory materials such that they can be employed within the digital twin framework. Sensory materials are shape-memory alloys that undergo an audible phase transformation while experiencing sufficient strain. Upon embedding sensory materials with a structural alloy, this audible transformation helps improve the reliability of crack detection especially at the early stages of crack growth. By combining these two early-stage technologies, an automated approach to evidence-based inspection and maintenance of aerospace vehicles is sought.

Hochhalter, Jacob↗

Tensile Creep Behavior of SiC(f)/SiC Ceramic Matrix Minicomposites

Single fiber-tow minicomposites represent the major load-bearing element of woven and laminate ceramic matrix composites (CMCs). To understand the effects of fiber type, fiber content, and matrix cracking on tensile creep in SiCf/SiC CMCs, single-tow SiCf/SiC minicomposites with different fiber types and contents were investigated. The minicomposites studied contained either Hi-Nicalon™ or Hi-Nicalon™ Type S SiC fibers with a boron nitride (BN) interphase and a chemical-vapor-infiltrated-silicon-carbide (CVI-SiC) matrix. Tensile creep was performed at 1200 °C in air. A bottom-up creep modeling approach was applied where creep parameters of the fibers and matrix were obtained separately at 1200 °C. Next, a theoretical model based on the rule of mixtures was derived to model the fiber and matrix creep-time-dependent stress redistribution. Fiber and matrix creep parameters, load transfer model results, and numerical modeling were used to construct a creep strain model to predict creep damage evolution of minicomposites with different fiber types and contents.

SiC/SiC Minicomposites Creep↗

Use of unbalanced laminates as a screening method for microcracking

State-of-the-art, high temperature polyimide matrix composites, reinforced with continuous graphite fibers are known to be susceptible to intraply cracking when thermally cycled over their useful service temperature range. It is believed that the transply cracking, in part, results from residual stresses caused by differences in coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) between the polymer matrix and the reinforcement. Thermal cycling tests to investigate this phenomenon involve expensive time and energy consuming programs which are not economically feasible for use as a part of a materials screening process. As an alternative to thermal cycling studies, a study of unbalanced crossply graphite fiber reinforcement composites was conducted to assess the effect of the composite ply layup and surface condition on the residual stresses that remain after the processing of these materials. The residual stresses were assessed by measuring the radii of curvature of the types of laminates that were studied. The temperature at which stress-free conditions existed were determined and a dye penetrant method was used to observe surface damage resulting from excessive residual stress buildup. These results are compared with some published results of thermal cycling tests that were previously conducted on balanced polyimide composites.

Papadopoulos, Demetrios S.↗

Use of unbalanced laminates as a screening method for microcracking

State-of-the-art, high temperature polyimide matrix composites, reinforced with continuous graphite fibers are known to be susceptible to intraply cracking when thermally cycled over their useful service temperature range. It is believed that the transply cracking, in part, results from residual stresses caused by differences in coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) between the polymer matrix and the reinforcement. Thermal cycling tests to investigate this phenomenon involve expensive time and energy consuming programs which are not economically feasible for use as a part of a materials screening process. As an alternative to thermal cycling studies, a study of unbalanced crossply graphite fiber reinforcement composites was conducted to assess the effect of the composite ply layup and surface condition on the residual stresses that remain after the processing of these materials. The residual stresses were assessed by measuring the radii of curvature of the types of laminates that were studied. The temperature at which stress-free conditions existed were determined and a dye penetrant method was used to observe surface damage resulting from excessive residual stress buildup. These results are compared with some published results of thermal cycling tests that were previously conducted on balanced polyimide composites.

Papadopoulos, Demetrios S.↗

The Effect of Heating on the Degradation of Ground Laboratory and Space Irradiated Teflon(r) FEP

The outer most layer of the multilayer insulation (MLI) blankets on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) is back surface aluminized Teflon(R) FEP (fluorinated ethylene propylene). As seen by data collected after each of the three servicing missions and as observed during the second servicing mission (SM2), the FEP has become embrittled in the space environment, leading to degradation of the mechanical properties and severe on-orbit cracking of the FEP. During SM2, a sample of aluminized-FEP was retrieved from HST that had cracked and curled, exposing its aluminum backside to space. Because of the difference in optical properties between FEP and aluminum, this insulation piece reached 200 C on-orbit, which is significantly higher than the nominal MLI temperature extreme of 50 C. This piece was more brittle than other retrieved material from the first and third servicing missions (SM1 and SM3A, respectively). Due to this observation and the fact that Teflon thermal shields on the solar array bi-stems were heated on-orbit to 130 C, experiments have been conducted to determine the effect of heating on the degradation of FEP that has been irradiated in a ground laboratory facility or in space on HST. Teflon FEP samples were X-ray irradiated in a high vacuum facility in order to simulate the damage caused by radiation in the space environment. Samples of pristine FEP, X-ray irradiated FEP and FEP retrieved from the HST during SM3A were heat treated from 50 to 200 C at 25 intervals in a high vacuum facility and then tensile tested. In addition, samples were tested in a density gradient column to determine the effect of the radiation and heating on the density of FEP. Results indicate that although heating does not degrade the tensile properties of non-irradiated Teflon, there is a significant dependence of the percent elongation at failure of irradiated Teflon as a function of heating temperature. Irradiated Teflon was found to undergo increasing degradation in the elongation at failure as temperature was increased from room temperature to 200 C. Rate of degradation changes, which were consistent with the glass I transition temperatures for FEP, appeared to be present in both tensile and density data. The results indicate the significance of the on-orbit temperature of Teflon FEP with respect to its degradation in the low Earth orbital space environment.

deGroh, Kim K.↗

Modeling of Different Fiber Type and Content SiC/SiC Minicomposites Creep Behavior

Silicon Carbide based Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs) are attractive materials for use in high-temperature applications in the aerospace and nuclear industries. However, creep damage mechanism in CMCs is the most dominant mechanism at elevated temperatures. Consequently, the tensile creep behavior of Hi-Nicalon, Hi-Nicalon Type S SiC fibers and Chemical vapor infiltrated Silicon Carbide matrix (CVI-SiC) were characterized and creep parameters were extracted from creep experiments. Some fiber creep tests were performed in inert environment at 1200 C on individual fibers. Creep behavior of different fiber content pristine and precracked Hi-Nicalon and Hi-Nicalon Type S reinforced minicomposites with BN interphases and CVI-SiC matrix were then modelled using the creep data found in this study and the literature and compared with creep experiments results for the pristine and precracked Hi-Nicalon and Hi-Nicalon Type S minicomposites. Finally, the effects of load-sharing and matrix cracking on CMC creep behavior will be discussed.

ceramic matrix minicomposites↗

The Effect of Heating on the Degradation of Ground Laboratory and Space Irradiated Teflon® FEP

The outer most layer of the multilayer insulation (MLI) blankets on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) is back surface aluminized Teflon® FEP (fluorinated ethylene propylene). As seen by data collected after each of the three servicing missions and as observed during the second servicing mission (SM2), the FEP has become embrittled in the space environment, leading to degradation of the mechanical properties and severe on-orbit cracking of the FEP. During SM2, a sample of aluminized-FEP was retrieved from HST that had cracked and curled, exposing its aluminum backside to space. Because of the difference in optical properties between FEP and aluminum, this insulation piece reached 200 C on-orbit, which is significantly higher than the nominal MLI temperature extreme of 50 C. This piece was more brittle than other retrieved material from the first and third servicing missions (SM1 and SM3A, respectively). Due to this observation and the fact that Teflon thermal shields on the solar array bi-stems were heated on-orbit to 130 C, experiments have been conducted to determine the effect of heating on the degradation of FEP that has been irradiated in a ground laboratory facility or in space on HST. Teflon FEP samples were x-ray irradiated in a high vacuum facility in order to simulate the damage caused by radiation in the space environment. Samples of pristine FEP, x-ray irradiated FEP and FEP retrieved from the HST during SM3A were heat treated from 50 to 200 C at 25intervals in a high vacuum facility and then tensile tested. In addition, samples were tested in a density gradient column to determine the effect of the radiation and heating on the density of FEP. Results indicate that although heating does not degrade the tensile properties of non-irradiated Teflon, there is a significant dependence of the percent elongation at failure of irradiated Teflon as a function of heating temperature. Irradiated Teflon was found to undergo increasing degradation in the elongation at failure as temperature was increased from room temperature to 200 C. Rate of degradation changes, which were consistent with the glass I transition temperatures for FEP, appeared to be present in both tensile and density data. The results indicate the significance of the on-orbit temperature of Teflon FEP with respect to its degradation in the low Earth orbital space environment.

Hubble Space Telescope↗

Investigating the Use of Ultrasonic Guided Waves for Aging Wire Insulation Assessment

Aging wiring has become a critical issue to DoD, NASA, FAA, and Industry. The problem is that insulation on environmentally aged wire becomes brittle and cracks. This exposes the underlying conductive wire to the potential for short circuits and fire. The difficulty is that techniques to monitor aging wire problems focus on applying electrical sensing techniques that are not very sensitive to the wire insulation. Thus, the development of methods to quantify and monitor aging wire insulation is highly warranted. Measurement of wire insulation stiffness by ultrasonic guided waves is being examined. Initial laboratory tests were performed on a simple model consisting of a solid cylinder and then a solid cylinder with a polymer coating. Experimental measurements showed that the lowest order axisymmetric mode may be sensitive to stiffness changes in the wire insulation. To test this theory, mil-spec wire samples MIL-W-81381, MIL-W-22759/34, and MIL-W-22759/87 (typically found in aircraft) were heat-damaged in an oven, in a range of heating conditions. The samples were 12, 16, and 20 gauge and the heat-damage introduced material changes in the wire-insulation that made the originally flexible insulation brittle and darker in color. Axisymmetric mode phase velocity increased for the samples that were exposed to heat for longer duration. For example, the phase velocity in the 20-gauge MIL-W-22759/34 wire changed from a baseline value of 2790m/s to 3280m/s and 3530m/s for one-hour exposures to 3490C and 3990C, respectively. Although the heat-damage conditions are not the same as environmental aging, we believe that with further development and refinements, the ultrasonic guided waves can be used to inspect wire-insulation for detrimental environmental aging conditions.

Anastasi, Robert F.↗

Failure of Non-Circular Composite Cylinders

In this study, a progressive failure analysis is used to investigate leakage in internally pressurized non-circular composite cylinders. This type of approach accounts for the localized loss of stiffness when material failure occurs at some location in a structure by degrading the local material elastic properties by a certain factor. The manner in which this degradation of material properties takes place depends on the failure modes, which are determined by the application of a failure criterion. The finite-element code STAGS, which has the capability to perform progressive failure analysis using different degradation schemes and failure criteria, is utilized to analyze laboratory scale, graphite-epoxy, elliptical cylinders with quasi-isotropic, circumferentially-stiff, and axially-stiff material orthotropies. The results are divided into two parts. The first part shows that leakage, which is assumed to develop if there is material failure in every layer at some axial and circumferential location within the cylinder, does not occur without failure of fibers. Moreover before fibers begin to fail, only matrix tensile failures, or matrix cracking, takes place, and at least one layer in all three cylinders studied remain uncracked, preventing the formation of a leakage path. That determination is corroborated by the use of different degradation schemes and various failure criteria. Among the degradation schemes investigated are the degradation of different engineering properties, the use of various degradation factors, the recursive or non-recursive degradation of the engineering properties, and the degradation of material properties using different computational approaches. The failure criteria used in the analysis include the noninteractive maximum stress criterion and the interactive Hashin and Tsai-Wu criteria. The second part of the results shows that leakage occurs due to a combination of matrix tensile and compressive, fiber tensile and compressive, and inplane shear failure modes in all three cylinders. Leakage develops after a relatively low amount of fiber damage, at about the same pressure for three material orthotropies, and at approximately the same location.

Hyer, M. W.↗

Damage Tolerance Behavior of Friction Stir Welds in Aluminum Alloys

Friction stir welding is a solid state welding process used in the fabrication of various aerospace structures. Self-reacting and conventional friction stir welding are variations of the friction stir weld process employed in the fabrication of cryogenic propellant tanks which are classified as pressurized structure in many spaceflight vehicle architectures. In order to address damage tolerance behavior associated with friction stir welds in these safety critical structures, nondestructive inspection and proof testing may be required to screen hardware for mission critical defects. The efficacy of the nondestructive evaluation or the proof test is based on an assessment of the critical flaw size. Test data describing fracture behavior, residual strength capability, and cyclic mission life capability of friction stir welds at ambient and cryogenic temperatures have been generated and will be presented in this paper. Fracture behavior will include fracture toughness and tearing (R-curve) response of the friction stir welds. Residual strength behavior will include an evaluation of the effects of lack of penetration on conventional friction stir welds, the effects of internal defects (wormholes) on self-reacting friction stir welds, and an evaluation of the effects of fatigue cycled surface cracks on both conventional and selfreacting welds. Cyclic mission life capability will demonstrate the effects of surface crack defects on service load cycle capability. The fracture data will be used to evaluate nondestructive inspection and proof test requirements for the welds.

McGill, Preston↗

A Diagnosis-Prognosis Feedback Loop for Improved Performance Under Uncertainties

The feed-forward relationship between diagnosis and prognosis is the foundation of both aircraft structural health management and the digital twin concept. Measurements of structural response are obtained either in-situ with mounted sensor networks or offline using more traditional techniques (e.g., nondestructive evaluation). Diagnosis algorithms process this information to detect and quantify damage and then feed this data forward to a prognostic framework. A prognosis of the structure's future operational readiness (e.g., remaining useful life or residual strength) is then made and is used to inform mission- critical decision-making. Years of research have been devoted to improving the elements of this process, but the process itself has not changed significantly. Here, a new approach is proposed in which prognosis information is not only fed forward for decision-making, but it is also fed back to the forthcoming diagnosis. In this way, diagnosis algorithms can take advantage of a priori information about the expected state of health, rather than operating in an uninformed condition. As a feasibility test, a diagnosis-prognosis feedback loop of this manner is demonstrated. The approach is applied to a numerical example in which fatigue crack growth is simulated in a simple aluminum alloy test specimen. A prognosis was derived from a set of diagnoses which provided feedback to a subsequent set of diagnoses. Improvements in accuracy and a reduction in uncertainty in the prognosis- informed diagnoses were observed when compared with an uninformed diagnostic approach.

Leser, Patrick E.↗