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NASA NTRS2012

Bayesian Analysis for Risk Assessment of Selected Medical Events in Support of the Integrated Medical Model Effort

The Exploration Medical Capability project is creating a catalog of risk assessments using the Integrated Medical Model (IMM). The IMM is a software-based system intended to assist mission planners in preparing for spaceflight missions by helping them to make informed decisions about medical preparations and supplies needed for combating and treating various medical events using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. The objective is to use statistical analyses to inform the IMM decision tool with estimated probabilities of medical events occurring during an exploration mission. Because data regarding astronaut health are limited, Bayesian statistical analysis is used. Bayesian inference combines prior knowledge, such as data from the general U.S. population, the U.S. Submarine Force, or the analog astronaut population located at the NASA Johnson Space Center, with observed data for the medical condition of interest. The posterior results reflect the best evidence for specific medical events occurring in flight. Bayes theorem provides a formal mechanism for combining available observed data with data from similar studies to support the quantification process. The IMM team performed Bayesian updates on the following medical events: angina, appendicitis, atrial fibrillation, atrial flutter, dental abscess, dental caries, dental periodontal disease, gallstone disease, herpes zoster, renal stones, seizure, and stroke.

Gilkey, Kelly M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

On the Ice Nucleation Spectrum

This work presents a novel formulation of the ice nucleation spectrum, i.e. the function relating the ice crystal concentration to cloud formation conditions and aerosol properties. The new formulation is physically-based and explicitly accounts for the dependency of the ice crystal concentration on temperature, supersaturation, cooling rate, and particle size, surface area and composition. This is achieved by introducing the concepts of ice nucleation coefficient (the number of ice germs present in a particle) and nucleation probability dispersion function (the distribution of ice nucleation coefficients within the aerosol population). The new formulation is used to generate ice nucleation parameterizations for the homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets and the heterogeneous deposition ice nucleation on dust and soot ice nuclei. For homogeneous freezing, it was found that by increasing the dispersion in the droplet volume distribution the fraction of supercooled droplets in the population increases. For heterogeneous ice nucleation the new formulation consistently describes singular and stochastic behavior within a single framework. Using a fundamentally stochastic approach, both cooling rate independence and constancy of the ice nucleation fraction over time, features typically associated with singular behavior, were reproduced. Analysis of the temporal dependency of the ice nucleation spectrum suggested that experimental methods that measure the ice nucleation fraction over few seconds would tend to underestimate the ice nuclei concentration. It is shown that inferring the aerosol heterogeneous ice nucleation properties from measurements of the onset supersaturation and temperature may carry significant error as the variability in ice nucleation properties within the aerosol population is not accounted for. This work provides a simple and rigorous ice nucleation framework where theoretical predictions, laboratory measurements and field campaign data can be reconciled, and that is suitable for application in atmospheric modeling studies.

Barahona, D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Tetragonal Lysozyme Nucleation and Crystal Growth: The Role of the Solution Phase

Lysozyme, and most particularly the tetragonal form of the protein, has become the default standard protein for use in macromolecule crystal nucleation and growth studies. There is a substantial body of experimental evidence, from this and other laboratories, that strongly suggests this proteins crystal nucleation and growth is by addition of associated species that are preformed by standard reversible concentration-driven self association processes in the bulk solution. The evidence includes high resolution AFM studies of the surface packing and of growth unit size at incorporation, fluorescence resonance energy transfer measurements of intermolecular distances in dilute solution, dialysis kinetics, and modeling of the growth rate data. We have developed a selfassociation model for the proteins crystal nucleation and growth. The model accounts for the obtained crystal symmetry, explains the observed surface structures, and shows the importance of the symmetry obtained by self-association in solution to the process as a whole. Further, it indicates that nucleation and crystal growth are not distinct mechanistically, but identical, with the primary difference being the probability that the particle will continue to grow or dissolve. This model also offers a possible mechanism for fluid flow effects on the growth process and how microgravity may affect it. While a single lysozyme molecule is relatively small (M.W. = 14,400), a structured octamer in the 4(sub 3) helix configuration (the proposed average sized growth unit) would have a M.W. = 115,000 and dimensions of 5.6 x 5.6 x 7.6 nm. Direct AFM measurements of growth unit incorporation indicate that units as wide as 11.2 nm and as long as 11.4 nm commonly attach to the crystal. These measurements were made at approximately saturation conditions, and they reflect the sizes of species that both added or desorbed from the crystal surface. The larger and less isotropic the associated species the more likely that it will be oriented to some degree in a flowing boundary layer, even at the low flow velocities measured about macromolecule crystals. Flow-driven effects resulting in misorientation upon addition to and incorporation into the crystal need only be a small fraction of a percentage to significantly affect the resulting crystal. One Earth, concentration gradient driven flow will maintain a high interfacial concentration, i.e., a high level (essentially that of the bulk solution) of solute association at the interface and higher growth rate. Higher growth rates mean an increased probability that misaligned growth units are trapped by subsequent growth layers before they can be desorbed and try again, or that the desorbing species will be smaller than the adsorbing species. In microgravity the extended diffusive boundary layer will lower the interfacial concentration. This results in a net dissociation of aggregated species that diffuse in from the bulk solution, i.e., smaller associated species, which are more likely able to make multiple attempts to correctly bind, yielding higher quality crystals.

Pusey, Marc L.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Radio emission from the outer parts of stellar atmospheres (mantles) at centimeter wavelengths and the winds of early-type stars

It is noted that when magnetic lines of force are present in the mantle of an early-type star, gyroresonance radiation at radio wavelengths may occur at detectable levels in addition to bremsstrahlung. An expression is derived for the effective value of the ratio of the emissivity in gyroresonance radiation to that in bremsstrahlung, and some numerical values are estimated using values of the parameters which may be typical for conditions in the mantles of early-type stars. The volume emissivity in gyroresonance radiation may exceed that for bremsstrahlung by a large factor. The implications of this result for the interpretation of the radio fluxes from early-type stars are discussed. It is shown that the radio-frequency radiation emerging from a hot star probably consists of gyroresonance radiation from an array of magnetic loops as well as bremsstrahlung from a low-density wind. It is argued that it is probable that the estimates of rate of mass loss made ignoring the possibility of gyroresonance radiation may be too large by a factor of at least 10.

Underhill, A. B.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Mathematical models for cochannel interference in FH/MFSK multiple-access systems

FH/MFSK has been proposed for a multiuser spread spectrum digital communication system to combat both self-jamming and intentional jamming. An independence assumption at the energy detector outputs is used to evaluate such a system for a digitized voice mobile radio system (Yue, 1981). This paper presents a correlated model and compares its performance to an independence model under the symbol error probability criterion. A Gaussian process model is also developed for comparison. It is found that the conventional Gaussian approximation is inadequate in predicting the number of users that can be accommodated by an FH/MFSK system using the conventional receiver. Furthermore, for the cases evaluated, the independence model provides an excellent approximation to the correlated model. Additionally, a conditional Chernoff bound is presented for the more general case of frequency-hopping systems with multiple hops per symbol.

Yan, T.-Y.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Primitive material surviving in chondrites - Mineral grains

Besides chondrules and various kinds of polymineralic inclusion, carbonaceous chondrites commonly contain, embedded in their matrices, isolated grains of mafic silicates and metallic iron. Most of the silicate grains probably originated in chondrules, but some appear to predate chondrule formation and may have formed as individual grains in the solar nebula. If that was the case, their compositions suggest some departure from equilibrium condensation from a gas of solar composition. Metal-grain compositions are broadly suggestive of nebular formation but the exact nature of the conditions in which they were formed remains problematical.

Steele, Ian M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Autonomous power expert system advanced development

The autonomous power expert (APEX) system is being developed at Lewis Research Center to function as a fault diagnosis advisor for a space power distribution test bed. APEX is a rule-based system capable of detecting faults and isolating the probable causes. APEX also has a justification facility to provide natural language explanations about conclusions reached during fault isolation. To help maintain the health of the power distribution system, additional capabilities were added to APEX. These capabilities allow detection and isolation of incipient faults and enable the expert system to recommend actions/procedure to correct the suspected fault conditions. New capabilities for incipient fault detection consist of storage and analysis of historical data and new user interface displays. After the cause of a fault is determined, appropriate recommended actions are selected by rule-based inferencing which provides corrective/extended test procedures. Color graphics displays and improved mouse-selectable menus were also added to provide a friendlier user interface. A discussion of APEX in general and a more detailed description of the incipient detection, recommended actions, and user interface developments during the last year are presented.

Quinn, Todd M.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Momentum limiting velocity controls for robotic manipulators

Robotic tasks in space require manipulating massive objects capable of attaining large momentum. The momentum can pose hazardous conditions and introduce destabilizing effects on a space platform. Consequently, a technique for limiting the momentum applied to objects under manipulation subject to arbitrary velocity input commands is proposed. The algorithm does not require mass position or inertia information about the object, and it takes actuator limitations into account in forming the momentum limits. To evaluate the probability that a velocity trajectory will fall within the momentum bounds, reliability theory is employed. This enables autonomously generated trajectories to be validated for compliance with momentum limits.

Mcinroy, John E.↗
NASA NTRS1999

An ESA Robotic Package to Search for Life on Mars

Similarities in the early histories of Mars and Earth suggest that life may have arisen on Mars as it did on Earth. The early life forms on Mars were probably simple organisms, similar to terrestrial prokaryotes. In fact, given the early deterioration of the Martian climate, it is unlikely that life on Mars could ever have reached more sophisticated evolution. Based on the present knowledge of Mars, the possibility of extant life at the surface is small. However, given the adaptability of terrestrial prokaryotes under adverse conditions, it is not excluded. Any extant life is hypothesized to reside in the permafrost in a dormant state until "reanimated" by impact-caused hydrothermal activity. Using this rationale, a group of European scientists worked together to conceive a hypothetical strategy to search for life on Mars. A possible configuration for a lander/rover is outlined.

Westall, F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Mechanism of blood pressure and R-R variability: insights from ganglion blockade in humans

Spontaneous blood pressure (BP) and R-R variability are used frequently as 'windows' into cardiovascular control mechanisms. However, the origin of these rhythmic fluctuations is not completely understood. In this study, with ganglion blockade, we evaluated the role of autonomic neural activity versus other 'non-neural' factors in the origin of BP and R-R variability in humans. Beat-to-beat BP, R-R interval and respiratory excursions were recorded in ten healthy subjects (aged 30 +/- 6 years) before and after ganglion blockade with trimethaphan. The spectral power of these variables was calculated in the very low (0.0078-0.05 Hz), low (0.05-0.15 Hz) and high (0.15-0.35 Hz) frequency ranges. The relationship between systolic BP and R-R variability was examined by cross-spectral analysis. After blockade, R-R variability was virtually abolished at all frequencies; however, respiration and high frequency BP variability remained unchanged. Very low and low frequency BP variability was reduced substantially by 84 and 69 %, respectively, but still persisted. Transfer function gain between systolic BP and R-R interval variability decreased by 92 and 88 % at low and high frequencies, respectively, while the phase changed from negative to positive values at the high frequencies. These data suggest that under supine resting conditions with spontaneous breathing: (1) R-R variability at all measured frequencies is predominantly controlled by autonomic neural activity; (2) BP variability at high frequencies (> 0.15 Hz) is mediated largely, if not exclusively, by mechanical effects of respiration on intrathoracic pressure and/or cardiac filling; (3) BP variability at very low and low frequencies (< 0.15 Hz) is probably mediated by both sympathetic nerve activity and intrinsic vasomotor rhythmicity; and (4) the dynamic relationship between BP and R-R variability as quantified by transfer function analysis is determined predominantly by autonomic neural activity rather than other, non-neural factors.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Use of Design of Experiments and Rule-Based Inference in Determining Neural Network Architectures for Loss of Control Detection

In this work, we describe methods for selecting the neural network architectures and input spaces to implement belief state inference on generic commercial transport aircraft. First, we highlight a case study on the planning, execution, and analysis of a set of experiments to determine the configurations of a conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE). We present a structured method that can be used in a number of aerospace applications, to optimize the structure and training parameters of the CVAE for belief state inference, using Design of Experiments (DOE) statistical methodologies. The motivation for this specific DOE was to identify the appropriate hyperparameters for measuring the CVAE reconstruction probability and latent space, such that the measurements can be used to infer qualitative state changes for the aircraft. We demonstrate that this process yields information about a trained neural network’s utility for this specific application, along with a quantifiable range of certainty. We execute 84 experiments using loss-of-control flight maneuver data from a NASA T-2 aircraft, demonstrating that this empirical process allows us to construct cheap and simple models with specific attributes amenable to belief state inference in aerospace applications. While theoretically, we could create a single CVAE with an input space the size of all measurable flight variables and environmental dynamics, it becomes intractable to use such a neural network in an in-situ intelligent multi-agent system. Using the recommendations from our case study, we introduce a technical approach for feasibly describing the belief space by (1) identifying significant statistical relationships among flight variables using rule induction, (2) using a set of rules that cover all features to define the input space of multiple CVAEs, and (3) forming a belief space based on the joint probability density of their collective latent spaces. This results in a series of relatively small matrix multiplications that can be performed in real time, as opposed to large matrix computations in a single CVAE. We demonstrate the application of this approach on the T-2 flight loss-of control experiments, using the architecture and hyperparameter recommendations from the case study. We compare the utilities of an individual CVAE trained on all flight variables and multiple CVAEs defined on subsets of flight variables for detecting qualitative changes in flight. We demonstrate that the use of multiple CVAEs with smaller input spaces permits the CVAE to capture more granular relationships in the latent space, permitting better state space characterization and loss-of-control detection.

Design of experiments↗
DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task A Final Report

Task A, also known as HGFrac, examines the fracturing processes that may occur in the Callovo-Oxfordian claystone (COx) in the context of the high-level (HLW) and intermediate-level long-lived (ILW-LL) radioactive waste repository in France. Understanding these processes and improving numerical models to reproduce them will aid in the design, optimization, and safety of the repository. Heat and gas fracturing are studied in two independent subtasks following a stepwise approach: laboratory tests/benchmark exercises, in-situ experiment, and finally, an application case. The in-situ heater experiment aimed to thermally induce a hydraulic fracture; temperature and pore pressure were monitored to detect any evidence of fracturing. The in-situ gas injection experiment aimed to study the effect of the stress orientation and gas injection kinetics on the gas fracturing process. The occurrence of fracturing was monitored by gas pressure measured in the injection interval. In both experiments, the excavation-induced fracture network around the heater/injection boreholes played an important role in the reduction of the compressive stress state, leading to both a tensile and shear failure response of the COx. During the first two years of the project, the research teams working on each task developed and/or proposed numerical approaches for reproducing the occurrence of fracturing in the in-situ experiments. The failure criteria were defined by reproducing the measurements from laboratory extension tests for the heat fracturing subtask. In the gas fracturing subtask, their approaches were used for simulating several benchmark exercises, and an inter-comparison between models was carried out. In both tasks, the developed approaches were compared with a simplified approach considering poro-elasticity for the mechanical behaviour of the COx. Most of the developed approaches are based on a continuous medium that takes into account variations in hydraulic properties due to mechanical degradation, such as plastic deformation or damage. Other approaches implicitly modelled weak planes or embedded discontinuities to reproduce fracture propagation. The potential for fracture initiation was also studied through of a discrete approach. In the second half of the project, the research teams mainly focused on interpretative modelling of two in-situ experiments and a blind prediction exercise to test their respective approaches. The models developed by the research teams were also applied at the repository scale to evaluate fracture initiation in a case study under vi unfavourable conditions, particularly in terms of spacing between High-Level Waste cells. The results showed that the poro-elasticity approach could be an efficient tool for understanding the main processes occurring in the COx. One example is the explicit representation of the excavation-induced fracture network around the boreholes, which yielded acceptable results compared to the measurement data. However, advanced approaches were needed to evaluate the potential increase of the excavation-induced fracture network extend and better understand fracture initiation. The stress analyses carried out by the teams revealed that hydraulic boundary conditions had a strong impact on fracture initiation in the heater experiment. Furthermore, in most cases, the results required higher pore pressure increments to reach fracturing than those measured in the experiment. This implies that the measurements may have been biased by the packer’s capacity to fully isolate the piezometric chambers, leading to lower pressures. On the contrary, there was no agreement on the fracturing mode, as some reported either shear or tensile fracturing, while others reported a combination of the two modes. In the case of gas fracturing, the research teams were limited to the comparison of a single point, which complicated their task. Nonetheless, the numerical results were able to reproduce the measurements and capture processes such as longitudinal gas flow through the excavation-induced fracture network, as suggested by some evidence in the observation piezometric chambers. The numerical models also agreed with the measurements in the sense of higher probability of developing along the injection borehole than radially towards the sound rock. The approaches developed by the research teams showed that they are capable of analysing and reproducing fracture initiation in the COx. However, areas of future work should focus on the fracture propagation and fracture aperture, which were out of the scope of this task. To this end, additional data must be gathered for the parameter characterisation and validation of the numerical models. Nonetheless, various approaches showed promising results as they were able to reproduce fracture development under certain conditions.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1998

SiC Recession Due to SiO2 Scale Volatility Under Combustion Conditions: Thermodynamics and Gaseous Diffusion Model - Part 2

In combustion environments, volatilization of SiO2 to Si-O-H(g) species is a critical issue. Available thermochemical data for Si-O-H(g) species were used to calculate boundary layer controlled fluxes from SiO2. Calculated fluxes were compared to volatilization rates Of SiO2 scales grown on SiC which were measured in Part 1 of this paper. Calculated volatilization rates were also compared to those measured in synthetic combustion gas furnace tests. Probable vapor species were identified in both fuel-lean and fuel-rich combustion environments based on the observed pressure, temperature and velocity dependencies as well as the magnitude of the volatility rate. Water vapor is responsible for the degradation of SiO2 in the fuel-lean environment. Silica volatility in fuel-lean combustion environments is attributed primarily to the formation of Si(OH)4(g) with a small contribution of SiO(OH)2(g).

Opila, Elizabeth J.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Television photometry - The Mariner 9 experience

Television photometry is compared to conventional techniques. Reduced data from Mariner 9 cameras should, under optimum conditions, have been accurate to a few percent. However, a combination of unstable camera properties and various unfortunate circumstances produced serious nonlinearities and other systematic errors. The means of estimating these errors are described in detail; they lean heavily on the fortuitous presence of a few specks of dust on the faceplate of one vidicon. Crude corrections will probably improve the photometric quality for the two most-used filter positions of the A camera. It would be very difficult to improve the photometry further. In view of their low photometric accuracy and detective quantum efficiency vidicons do not seem likely to replace conventional photography, except for special applications.

Young, A. T.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A wet-geology and cold-climate Mars model: Punctuation of a slow dynamic approach to equilibrium

It was suggested that Mars may have possessed a relatively warm humid climate and a vigorous hydrological cycle involving meteoric precipitation, oceans, and continental ice sheets. Baker hypothesized that these geologically active conditions may have been repeated several times; each of these dynamic epochs was followed by a collapse of the climate and hydrologic cycle of Mars into essentially current conditions, completing what is termed a 'Baker cycle'. The purpose is to present an endmember possibility that Martian glacial landscapes, including some that were previously considered to have formed under warm climatic conditions, might be explained by processes compatible with an extremely cold surface. Two aspects of hypothesized Martian glacial terrains were cited as favoring a warm climate during Baker cycles: (1) the formation of some landscapes, including possible eskers, tunnel channels, drumlins, and outwash plains, appears to have required liquid water, and (2) a liquid-surfaced ocean was probably necessary to feed the glaciers. The requirement for liquid water, if these features were correctly interpreted, is difficult to avoid; it is entirely possible that a comparatively warm climate was involved, but it is not clear that formation of landforms by wet-based glaciers actually requires a warm climate. Even less certain is the supposed requirement for liquid oceans. Formation of glaciers only requires a source of water or ice to supply an amount of precipitation that exceeds losses due to melting and sublimation. At Martian temperatures precipitation is very low, but so are melting and sublimation, so a large body of ice that is unstable with respect to sublimation may take the role of Earth's oceans in feeding the glaciers. Recent models suggest that even current Martian polar caps, long thought to be static bodies of ice and dust, might actually be slow-moving, cryogenic continental glaciers. Is it possible that subglacial processes beneath cryogenic (but wetbased) ice sheets formed the hypothesized Martian glacial landscapes?

Kargel, J. S.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Ground-recorded sonic boom signatures of F-18 aircraft formation flight

Two F-18 aircraft were flown, one above the other, in two formations, in order for the shock systems of the two aircraft to merge and propagate to the ground. The first formation had the canopy of the lower F-18 in the inlet shock of the upper F-18 (called inlet-canopy). The flight conditions were Mach 1.22 and an altitude of 23,500 ft. An array of five sonic boom recorders was used on the ground to record the sonic boom signatures. This paper describes the flight test technique and the ground level sonic boom signatures. The tail-canopy formation resulted in two, separated, N-wave signatures. Such signatures probably resulted from aircraft positioning error. The inlet-canopy formation yielded a single modified signature; two recorders measured an approximate flattop signature. Loudness calculations indicated that the single inlet-canopy signatures were quieter than the two, separated tail-canopy signatures. Significant loudness occurs after a sonic boom signature. Such loudness probably comes from the aircraft engines.

Bahm, Catherine M.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Ground-Recorded Sonic Boom Signatures of F-18 Aircraft in Formation Flight

Two F-18 aircraft were flown, one above the other, in two formations, in order for the shock systems of the two aircraft to merge and propagate to the ground. The first formation had the canopy of the lower F-18 in the tail shock of the upper F-18 (called tail-canopy). The second formation had the canopy of the lower F- 18 in the inlet shock of the upper F-18 (called inlet-canopy). The flight conditions were Mach 1.22 and an altitude of 23,500 ft . An array of five sonic boom recorders was used on the ground to record the sonic boom signatures. This paper describes the flight test technique and the ground level sonic boom signatures. The tail-canopy formation resulted in two, separated, N-wave signatures. Such signatures probably resulted from aircraft positioning error. The inlet-canopy formation yielded a single modified signature; two recorders measured an approximate flattop signature. Loudness calculations indicated that the single inlet-canopy signatures were quieter than the two, separated tail-canopy signatures. Significant loudness occurs after a sonic boom signature. Such loudness probably comes from the aircraft engines.

Bahm, Catherine M.↗