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At least 1,405 records · Page 78

Optimizing cloud motion estimation on the edge with phase correlation and optical flow

Abstract. Phase correlation (PC) is a well-known method for estimating cloud motion vectors (CMVs) from infrared and visible spectrum images. Commonly, phase shift is computed in the small blocks of the images using the fast Fourier transform. In this study, we investigate the performance and the stability of the blockwise PC method by changing the block size, the frame interval, and combinations of red, green, and blue (RGB) channels from the total sky imager (TSI) at the United States Atmospheric Radiation Measurement user facility's Southern Great Plains site. We find that shorter frame intervals, followed by larger block sizes, are responsible for stable estimates of the CMV, as suggested by the higher autocorrelations. The choice of RGB channels has a limited effect on the quality of CMVs, and the red and the grayscale images are marginally more reliable than the other combinations during rapidly evolving low-level clouds. The stability of CMVs was tested at different image resolutions with an implementation of the optimized algorithm on the Sage cyberinfrastructure test bed. We find that doubling the frame rate outperforms quadrupling the image resolution in achieving CMV stability. The correlations of CMVs with the wind data are significant in the range of 0.38–0.59 with a 95 % confidence interval, despite the uncertainties and limitations of both datasets. A comparison of the PC method with constructed data and the optical flow method suggests that the post-processing of the vector field has a significant effect on the quality of the CMV. The raindrop-contaminated images can be identified by the rotation of the TSI mirror in the motion field. The results of this study are critical to optimizing algorithms for edge-computing sensor systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Dependence of Climate Sensitivity on the Meridional Distribution of Radiative Forcing

Abstract This study investigates how climate sensitivity depends upon the spatial pattern of radiative forcing. Sensitivity experiments using a coupled ocean‐atmosphere model were conducted by adding anomalous incoming solar radiation over the entire globe, Northern Hemisphere mid‐latitudes, Southern Ocean, and tropics. The varied forcing patterns led to highly divergent climate sensitivities. Specifically, the climate is nearly twice as sensitive to Southern Ocean forcing as tropical forcing. Strong coupling between the surface and free troposphere in the tropics increases the inversion strength, leading to smaller cloud feedback in the tropical forcing experiments. In contrast, the extratropics exhibit weaker coupling, a decrease or near‐zero change in the inversion strength, and strong positive cloud feedback. These results contrast with the conventional SST‐pattern effect in which tropical surface temperature changes regulate climate sensitivity. They also have important implications for other potentially asymmetric forcings, such as those from geoengineering, volcanic eruptions, and paleoclimatic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARM FY2025 Radar Plan

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility is dedicated to delivering high-quality radar data that significantly advance our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes, improving climate models. With radars operating across diverse frequencies, scanning modes, and global climate conditions, extensive staffing is essential for effective management. Due to current staffing constraints, achieving the expected level of operational excellence requires a more strategic approach. To address this challenge, ARM has developed an operational radar plan for the upcoming Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25) based on budget and staffing considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

ARM FY2025 Radar Plan

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility is dedicated to delivering high-quality radar data that significantly advance our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes, improving climate models. With radars operating across diverse frequencies, scanning modes, and global climate conditions, extensive staffing is essential for effective management. Due to current staffing constraints, achieving the expected level of operational excellence requires a more strategic approach. To address this challenge, ARM has developed an operational radar plan for the upcoming Fiscal Year 2025 (FY25) based on budget and staffing considerations. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2024 (FY24) ARM radar-related activities and outlines the strategic plan for FY25. It presents a comprehensive radar plan that includes detailed activities, priorities, and a projected timeline aligned with the ARM radar roadmap. Key tasks, detailed in Table 1, cover various radar operational stages and coordinated efforts among ARM teams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Solar radiation at the Earth's surface: Its calculation and inference from satellite imagery

Physical and empirical models for calculation of insolation on a horizontal surface are described. Calculation of the spectral components of insolation and the calculation of the integrated values using wavelength-averaged values, ignoring aerosol effects, are discussed. Empirical models for determining insolation from meteorological data under clear and cloudy skies are described. The influence of hourly and daily global solar radiation from GOES satellite images is illustrated. Data acquisition methods for the Great Plains experiment, the determination of cloud free brightness levels, and determination of cloud parameters and target brightness are considered. The use of two and seven satellite images per day resulted in insolation determinations having a standard error of less then 10% of the mean. Use of only one image per day resulted in a standard error of about 20% of the mean.

Bartman, F. L.↗

Structures observed on the spot radiance fields during the FIRE experiment

Three Spot images taken during the FIRE experiment on stratocumulus are analyzed. From this high resolution data detailed observations of the true cloud radiance field may be made. The structure and inhomogeneity of these radiance fields hold important implications for the radiation budget, while the fine scale structure in radiance field provides information on cloud dynamics. Wieliki and Welsh, and Parker et al., have quantified the inhomogeneities of the cumulus clouds through a careful examination of the distribution of cloud (and hole) size as functions of an effective cloud diameter and radiance threshold. Cahalan (1988) has compared for different cloud types of (stratocumulus, fair weather cumulus, convective clouds in the ITCZ) the distributions of clouds (and holes) sizes, the relation between the size and the perimeter of these clouds (and holes), and examining the possibility of scale invariance. These results are extended from LANDSAT resolution (57 m and 30 m) to the Spot resolution (10 m) resolution in the case of boundary layer clouds. Particular emphasis is placed on the statistics of zones of high and low reflectivity as a function of a threshold reflectivity.

Seze, Genevieve↗

The 27-28 October 1986 FIRE IFO cirrus case study - Spectral properties of cirrus clouds in the 8-12 micron window

Lidar and radiometric observations are employed for detecting the presence of cirrus and describing their radiative properties. The study focuses on observations of the radiative properties of cirrus clouds within the 8-12 micron spectral region. The instrumentation that achieved the spectral radiance observations used in this study is described. Results are presented for October 28, 1986 FIRE case study day in terms of brightness temperature differences, cirrus effective emissivities, and the gross microphysical characteristics of the observed clouds. The HIS and lidar observations were combined to derive the spectral effective beam emissivity of the cirrus clouds. Fifty percent of clouds on this day displayed a spectral variation of effective beam emissivity from 2-10 percent. These differences, in conjunction with large differences in the HIS observed brightness temperatures, indicate that cirrus clouds cannot be considered gray in the 8-12 micron region. Also, the derived spectral transmittance of the cloud is used to infer the effective radii of the particle size distribution.

Ackerman, Steven A.↗

Changes in Cloud and Aerosol Cover (1980-2006) from Reflectivity Time Series Using SeaWiFS, N7-TOMS, EP-TOMS, SBUV-2, and OMI Radiance Data

The amount of solar radiation reflected back to space or reaching the Earth's surface is primarily governed by the amount of cloud cover and, to a much lesser extent, by Rayleigh scatteri ng, aerosols, and various absorbing gases (e.g., O3, NO2, H2O). A useful measure of the effect of cloud plus aerosol cover is given by the amount that the 331 run Lambert Equivalent Reflectivity (LER) ofa scene exceeds the surfuce reflectivity for snow/ice-free scenes after Rayleigh scattering has been removed. Twenty-eight years of reflectivity data are available by overlapping data from several satellites: N7 (Nimbus 7, TOMS; 331 nm) from 1979 to 1992, SBUV-2 series (Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet, NOAA; 331 nm) 1985 to 2007, EP (Earth-Probe, TOMS; 331 nm) 1997 to 2006, SW (SeaWiFS; 412 nm) 1998 to 2006, and OMI (Ozone Measuring Instrument; 331 nm) 2004-2007. Only N7 and SW have a sufficiently long data record, Sun-synchronous orbits, and are adequately calibrated for long-term reflectivity trend estimation. Reflectivity data derived from these instruments and the SBUV-2 series are compared during the overlapping years. Key issues in determining long-term reflecti vity changes that have occurred during the N7 and SW operating periods are discussed. The largest reflectivity changes in the 412 nm SW LER and 331 nm EP LER are found to occur near the equator and are associated with a large EI Nino-Southern Oscillation event. Most other changes that have occurred are regional, such as the apparent cloud decrease over northern Europe since 1998. The fractional occurrence (fraction of days) of high reflectivity values over Hudson Bay, Canada (snow/ice and clouds) appears to have decreased when comparing reflectivity data from 1980 to 1992 to 1997-2006, suggesting shorter duration of ice in Hudson Bay since 1980.

Herman, J. R.↗

Effects from Time Dependence of Ice Nucleus Activity for Contrasting Cloud Types

Abstract The role of time-dependent freezing of ice nucleating particles (INPs) is evaluated with the “Aerosol–Cloud” (AC) model in 1) deep convection observed over Oklahoma during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Cloud Experiment (MC3E), 2) orographic clouds observed over North California during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (ACAPEX), and 3) supercooled, stratiform clouds over the United Kingdom, observed during the Aerosol Properties, Processes And Influences on the Earth’s climate (APPRAISE) campaign. AC uses the dynamical core of the WRF Model and has hybrid bin–bulk microphysics and a 3D mesoscale domain. AC is validated against coincident aircraft, ground-based, and satellite observations for all three cases. Filtered concentrations of ice (>0.1–0.2 mm) agree with those observed at all sampled levels. AC predicts the INP activity of various types of aerosol particles with an empirical parameterization (EP), which follows a singular approach (no time dependence). Here, the EP is modified to represent time-dependent INP activity by a purely empirical approach, using our published laboratory observations of time-dependent INP activity. In all simulated clouds, the inclusion of time dependence increases the predicted INP activity of mineral dust particles by 0.5–1 order of magnitude. However, there is little impact on the cloud glaciation because the total ice is mostly (80%–90%) from secondary ice production (SIP) at levels warmer than about −36°C. The Hallett–Mossop process and fragmentation in ice–ice collisions together initiate about 70% of the total ice, whereas fragmentation during both raindrop freezing and sublimation contributes <10%. Overall, total ice concentrations and SIP are unaffected by time-dependent INP activity. In the simulated APPRAISE case, the main causes of persistence of long-lived clouds and precipitation are predicted to be SIP in weak embedded convection and reactivation following recirculation of dust particles in supercooled layer cloud.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Direct Radiative Effects of Aerosols at the ARM SGP and TWP Sites (DOE ASR Final Report)

This effort has examined and quantified aerosol direct radiative effects (DREs) and associated uncertainties at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plain (SGP) and Tropical Western Pacific (TWP) sites under both clear and all sky conditions by taking advantage of the advanced ARM long-term comprehensive measurements of aerosol, cloud, radiation, and atmospheric state. This effort has filled the knowledge gap in aerosol DREs at the SGP and TWP under all sky conditions based on the ARM observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climatic modification by CO2, H2O, and aerosol

Research is reported on the effects of increasing the CO2, aerosols, and water content of the atmosphere on the surface temperature and climatology. An atmospheric model is described with the incoming solar radiation for a planetary albedo of 33 percent, surface temperature of 288 K, relative humidity of 75 percent, cloud cover of 48 percent, CO2 of 0.3 parts per thousand, and aerosol density of two million per square centimeter. The results show that if the CO2 increases by a factor of 1000 or more, the total pressure of the atmosphere increases, and the earth may become as hot as Venus. It is also shown that as the amount of dust particles in the atmosphere increases, the solar radiation decreases, and the surface temperature lowers.

Rasool, I.↗

Isotopic abundance of CO in interstellar clouds

The fractional abundances of the isotopic species of carbon monoxide in interstellar clouds are calculated on a basis of gas-phase ion-molecule reactions. The (C-13)O/(C-12)O ratio varies significantly with extinction of the ultraviolet radiation field, and in the outer regions of dark dense clouds (C-13)O may be enhanced by a factor of 10. The observational interpretation of the CO to H2 or interstellar-reddening relation and the isotopic abundances of carbon are complicated by these effects.

Langer, W. D.↗

Tropical Ocean Evaporation/SST Sensitivity and It's Link to Water and Energy Budget Variations During ENSO

The continuing debate over feedback mechanisms governing tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical climate in general has highlighted the diversity of potential checks and balances within the climate system. Competing feedbacks due to changes in surface evaporation, water vapor, and cloud long- and shortwave radiative properties each may serve critical roles in stabilizing or destabilizing the climate system. It is also intriguing that even those climate variations having origins internal to the climate system - changes in ocean heat transport for example, apparently require complementary equilibrating effects by changes in atmospheric energy fluxes. Perhaps the best observational evidence of this is the relatively invariant nature of tropically averaged net radiation exiting the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) as measured by broadband satellite sensors over the past two decades. Thus, analyzing how these feedback mechanisms are operating within the context of current interannual variability may offer considerable insight for anticipating future climate change. In this paper we focus primarily on interannual variations of ocean evaporative fluxes and their significance for coupled water and energy cycles within the tropical climate system. In particular, we use both the da Silva estimates of surface fluxes (based on the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set, COADS) and numerical simulations from several global climate models to examine evaporation sensitivity to perturbations in SST associated with warm and cold ENSO events. The specific questions we address are as follows: (1) What recurring patterns of surface wind and humidity anomalies are present during ENSO and how do they combine to yield systematic evaporation anomalies?, (2) What is the resulting tropical ocean mean evaporation-SST sensitivity associated with this climate perturbation?, and (3) What role does this evaporation play in tropical heat and water balance over tropical oceanic regions? We use the da Silva ocean flux data to identify composite structure of departures of latent heat flux from climatology. We also show how these patterns arise out of associated wind and humidity anomaly distributions. Our preliminary work shows that evaporation sensitivity estimates from the da Silva / COADS data, computed for the tropical oceans (30 degrees N/S) are in the neighborhood of 5 to 6 W/square m K. Model estimates are also quite close to this figure. This rate is only slightly less than a rate corresponding to constant relative humidity; however, substantial regional departures from constant relative humidity are present. These patterns are robust and we relate the associated wind and humidity fluctuations noted in previous investigations to the derived evaporation anomalies. Finally, these results are interpreted with other data from the Earth radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and NASA's Surface Radiation Budget (SRB) data set to characterize the tropical energetics of ENSO-related climate variability.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Sensitivity of the Tropical Atmosphere Energy Balance to ENSO-Related SST Changes: How Well Can We Quantify Hydrologic and Radiative Responses?

The continuing debate over feedback mechanisms governing tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and tropical climate in general has highlighted the diversity of potential checks and balances within the climate system. Competing feedbacks due to changes in surface evaporation, water vapor, and cloud long- and shortwave radiative properties each may serve critical roles in stabilizing or destabilizing the climate system. It is also intriguing that even those climate variations having origins internal to the climate system-- changes in ocean heat transport for example, apparently require complementary equilibrating effects by changes in atmospheric energy fluxes. Perhaps the best observational evidence of this is the relatively invariant nature of tropically averaged net radiation exiting the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) as measured by broadband satellite sensors over the past two decades. Thus, analyzing how these feedback mechanisms are operating within the context of current interannual variability may offer considerable insight for anticipating future climate change. In this paper we focus on how fresh water and radiative fluxes over the tropical oceans change during ENSO warm and cold events and how these changes affect the tropical energy balance. At present, ENSO remains the most prominent known mode of natural variability at interannual time scales. Although great advances have been made in understanding this phenomenon and realizing prediction skill over the past decade, our ability to document the coupled water and energy changes observationally and to represent them in climate models seems far from settled (Soden, 2000 J Climate). Our analysis makes use a number of data bases, principally those derived from space-based measurements, to explore systematic changes in rainfall, evaporation, and surface and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes, A reexamination of the Langley 8-Year Surface Radiation Budget data set reveals errors in the surface longwave emission due to use of biased SSTs. Subsequent correction allows subsequent use of this data set along with ERBE TOA fluxes to infer net atmospheric radiative beating. Further analysis of recent rainfall algorithms provides new estimates for precipitation variability in line with interannual evaporation changes inferred from the da Silva, Young, Levitus COADS analysis. The overall results from our analysis suggest an increase (decrease) of the hydrologic cycle during ENSO warm (cold) events at the rate of about 5 Wm-2 per K of SST change. This rate is slightly less than that which would be expected for constant relative humidity over the tropical oceans. Corresponding radiative fluxes seem systematically smaller resulting in a enhanced (suppressed) export of energy from the tropical ocean regions during warm (cold) SST events. Discussion of likely errors due to sampling and measurement strategies are discussed along with their impacts on our conclusions.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

A Framework for Evaluating Climate Model Performance Metrics

The CMIP5 archive contains future climate projections from over 50 models provided by dozens of modeling centers from around the world. Individual model projections, however, are subject to biases created by structural model uncertainties. As a result, ensemble averaging of multiple models is often used to add value to model projections: consensus projections have been shown to consistently outperform individual models. Previous reports for the IPCC establish climate change projections based on an equal-weighted average of all model projections. However, certain models reproduce climate processes better than other models. Should models be weighted based on performance? Unequal ensemble averages have previously been constructed using a variety of mean state metrics. What metrics are most relevant for constraining future climate projections? This project develops a framework for systematically testing metrics in models to identify optimal metrics for unequal weighting multi-model ensembles. A unique aspect of this project is the construction and testing of climate process-based model evaluation metrics. A climate process-based metric is defined as a metric based on the relationship between two physically related climate variables?e.g., outgoing longwave radiation and surface temperature. Metrics are constructed using high-quality Earth radiation budget data from NASA's Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and surface temperature data sets. It is found that regional values of tested quantities can vary significantly when comparing weighted and unweighted model ensembles. For example, one tested metric weights the ensemble by how well models reproduce the time-series probability distribution of the cloud forcing component of reflected shortwave radiation. The weighted ensemble for this metric indicates lower simulated precipitation (up to .7 mm/day) in tropical regions than the unweighted ensemble: since CMIP5 models have been shown to overproduce precipitation, this result could indicate that the metric is effective in identifying models which simulate more realistic precipitation. Ultimately, the goal of the framework is to identify performance metrics for advising better methods for ensemble averaging models and create better climate predictions.

Noel C Baker↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-10735-DND

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now surpassed the 10-year mark, has combined rigorous calibration, improved scene identification, and multi-satellite data fusion to produce a climate-accuracy data set of global 1° gridded radiative surface and TOA fluxes, and cloud properties. CERES provides the climate community with four observed TOA flux products. The ERBE-like product uses the same algorithms as ERBE in order to be compared with the ERBE time period. The SSF product uses the improved scene identification and radiance to flux conversion. The SYN product uses GEO derived clouds and fluxes to provide diurnally complete TOA fluxes. The EBAF product provides net balanced fluxes tied to the ocean heat storage term. This product is suited for climate modelers estimating the global mean energy budget. Each successive CERES flux product applies the improvements over the previous product. This presentation will focus on the diurnal averaging improvements by the inclusion of imager radiances from 5 geostationary (GEO) satellites at 3-hourly intervals to estimate the flux in between CERES observations. The regional monthly mean flux differences based on SYN (CERES/GEO) and SSF (CERES-only) can exceed 20 Wm^-2. CERES shortwave and longwave fluxes have been rigorously validated and are key elements in evaluating the ability of climate models to predict both past and future climate states. The CERES normalization of GEO derived fluxes in order to maintain the CERES instrument calibration and are consistent globally within 0.1 Wm^-2, even if the GEO calibration is artificially altered by ±5%, twice the anticipated calibration error. The predicted GEO TOA fluxes normalized to Terra have been compared at Aqua times to Aqua flux observations, as well as with GERB hourly fluxes over the METEOSAT domain. Similarly ground based radiometers have been used to validate the CERES radiative transfer computed surface fluxes and have confirmed that the CERES/GEO fluxes have improved the computed surface flux product. Although the GEO based fluxes are of inferior quality then the CERES observed fluxes, they capture the diurnal signal more effectively than using constant meteorology between CERES measurements. The validation of the GEO derived fluxes and clouds will be shown.

D. R. Doelling↗

Sonora: A New Generation Model Atmosphere Grid for Brown Dwarfs and Young Extrasolar Giant Planets

Brown dwarf and giant planet atmospheric structure and composition has been studied both by forward models and, increasingly so, by retrieval methods. While indisputably informative, retrieval methods are of greatest value when judged in the context of grid model predictions. Meanwhile retrieval models can test the assumptions inherent in the forward modeling procedure. In order to provide a new, systematic survey of brown dwarf atmospheric structure, emergent spectra, and evolution, we have constructed a new grid of brown dwarf model atmospheres. We ultimately aim for our grid to span substantial ranges of atmospheric metallilcity, C/O ratios, cloud properties, atmospheric mixing, and other parameters. Spectra predicted by our modeling grid can be compared to both observations and retrieval results to aid in the interpretation and planning of future telescopic observations. We thus present Sonora, a new generation of substellar atmosphere models, appropriate for application to studies of L, T, and Y-type brown dwarfs and young extrasolar giant planets. The models describe the expected temperature-pressure profile and emergent spectra of an atmosphere in radiative-convective equilibrium for ranges of effective temperatures and gravities encompassing 200 less than or equal to T(sub eff) less than or equal to 2400 K and 2.5 less than or equal to log g less than or equal to 5.5. In our poster we briefly describe our modeling methodology, enumerate various updates since our group's previous models, and present our initial tranche of models for cloudless, solar metallicity, and solar carbon-to-oxygen ratio, chemical equilibrium atmospheres. These models will be available online and will be updated as opacities and cloud modeling methods continue to improve.

emergent spectra↗

Optics of Water Microdroplets with Soot Inclusions: Exact Versus Approximate Results

We use the recently generalized version of the multi-sphere superposition T-matrix method (STMM) to compute the scattering and absorption properties of microscopic water droplets contaminated by black carbon. The soot material is assumed to be randomly distributed throughout the droplet interior in the form of numerous small spherical inclusions. Our numerically-exact STMM results are compared with approximate ones obtained using the Maxwell-Garnett effective-medium approximation (MGA) and the Monte Carlo ray-tracing approximation (MCRTA). We show that the popular MGA can be used to calculate the droplet optical cross sections, single-scattering albedo, and asymmetry parameter provided that the soot inclusions are quasi-uniformly distributed throughout the droplet interior, but can fail in computations of the elements of the scattering matrix depending on the volume fraction of soot inclusions. The integral radiative characteristics computed with the MCRTA can deviate more significantly from their exact STMM counterparts, while accurate MCRTA computations of the phase function require droplet size parameters substantially exceeding 60.

cloud droplets↗