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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Use of the BSRN Data as A Benchmark for the POWER Hourly DHI and DNI and In Validating Derived Hourly GTI

The satellite-based CERES SYN1deg hourly data is the source data of the POWER GIS solar data that covers 2001 to near present. The SYN1deg(Ed4.1) hourly GHI agrees well with the BSRN data, but the hourly DHI and DirHI (Direct Horizontal Irradiance) are positively and negatively, respectively, biased with appreciable magnitudes. The hourly DNI, derived by dividing the DirHI by cos(SZA), or the cosine of the solar zenith angle, is therefore negatively biased. Based on the statistics of comparisons with the BSRN data, we performed bias corrections on the hourly DHI and DNI. The corrections were executed in the 3-D phase space of latitude, cos(SZA), and cloud fraction (CLFR). The isotropic model is then used to derive the hourly global tilted irradiance (GTI). For validation purpose, we applied the isotropic model to the BSRN data at the original 1-, 2-, 3- or 5-minute interval. The satellite-based hourly GTI shows good agreement with their BSRN counterpart. We also examined two monthly-mean-based methods that empirically derive monthly mean GTI and DNI from monthly mean GHI and from both monthly mean GHI and DHI. The monthly-mean-based results compare favorably with the hourly-mean-based results. The GEWEX SRB (V4-IP) provides POWER with daily mean GHI for the years before the CERES era, and the data were corrected using quantile mapping by referencing the CERES SYN1deg data. We used the Kolmogorov -Smirnov test (K-S test) and Cramer-von Mises test to examine how well the results agree with the BSRN data. We found that if we set the lower limit for the daily mean GHI to 30 W m-2, the data can pass the K-S test at 0.01 significance level and the Cramer-von Mises test at 0.001 significance level. If no lower limit is set on the daily means, the data fail both tests. The satellite-based CERES SYN1deg hourly data is the source data of the POWER GIS solar data that covers 2001 to near present. The SYN1deg(Ed4.1) hourly GHI agrees well with the BSRN data, but the hourly DHI and DirHI (Direct Horizontal Irradiance) are positively and negatively, respectively, biased with appreciable magnitudes. The hourly DNI, derived by dividing the DirHI by cos(SZA), or the cosine of the solar zenith angle, is therefore negatively biased. Based on the statistics of comparisons with the BSRN data, we performed bias corrections on the hourly DHI and DNI. The corrections were executed in the 3-D phase space of latitude, cos(SZA), and cloud fraction (CLFR). The isotropic model is then used to derive the hourly global tilted irradiance (GTI). For validation purpose, we applied the isotropic model to the BSRN data at the original 1-, 2-, 3- or 5-minute interval. The satellite-based hourly GTI shows good agreement with their BSRN counterpart. We also examined two monthly-mean-based methods that empirically derive monthly mean GTI and DNI from monthly mean GHI and from both monthly mean GHI and DHI. The monthly-mean-based results compare favorably with the hourly-mean-based results. The GEWEX SRB (V4-IP) provides POWER with daily mean GHI for the years before the CERES era, and the data were corrected using quantile mapping by referencing the CERES SYN1deg data. We used the Kolmogorov -Smirnov test (K-S test) and Cramer-von Mises test to examine how well the results agree with the BSRN data. We found that if we set the lower limit for the daily mean GHI to 30 W m-2, the data can pass the K-S test at 0.01 significance level and the Cramer-von Mises test at 0.001 significance level. If no lower limit is set on the daily means, the data fail both tests.

Taiping Zhang↗
NASA NTRS1998

Development of a Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method for the Analysis of Nondeterministic Structures

Accounting for the statistical geometric and material variability of structures in analysis has been a topic of considerable research for the last 30 years. The determination of quantifiable measures of statistical probability of a desired response variable, such as natural frequency, maximum displacement, or stress, to replace experience-based "safety factors" has been a primary goal of these studies. There are, however, several problems associated with their satisfactory application to realistic structures, such as bladed disks in turbomachinery. These include the accurate definition of the input random variables (rv's), the large size of the finite element models frequently used to simulate these structures, which makes even a single deterministic analysis expensive, and accurate generation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) necessary to obtain the probability of the desired response variables. The research presented here applies a methodology called probabilistic dynamic synthesis (PDS) to solve these problems. The PDS method uses dynamic characteristics of substructures measured from modal test as the input rv's, rather than "primitive" rv's such as material or geometric uncertainties. These dynamic characteristics, which are the free-free eigenvalues, eigenvectors, and residual flexibility (RF), are readily measured and for many substructures, a reasonable sample set of these measurements can be obtained. The statistics for these rv's accurately account for the entire random character of the substructure. Using the RF method of component mode synthesis, these dynamic characteristics are used to generate reduced-size sample models of the substructures, which are then coupled to form system models. These sample models are used to obtain the CDF of the response variable by either applying Monte Carlo simulation or by generating data points for use in the response surface reliability method, which can perform the probabilistic analysis with an order of magnitude less computational effort. Both free- and forced-response analyses have been performed, and the results indicate that, while there is considerable room for improvement, the method produces usable and more representative solutions for the design of realistic structures with a substantial savings in computer time.

Brown, A. M.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data-Driven Discovery of Active Nematic Hydrodynamics

Active nematics can be modeled using phenomenological continuum theories that account for the dynamics of the nematic director and fluid velocity through partial differential equations (PDEs). While these models provide a statistical description of the experiments, the relevant terms in the PDEs and their parameters are usually identified indirectly. We adapt a recently developed method to automatically identify optimal continuum models for active nematics directly from spatio-temporal data, via sparse regression of the coarse-grained fields onto generic low order PDEs. After extensive benchmarking, we apply the method to experiments with microtubule-based active nematics, finding a surprisingly minimal description of the system. Furthermore, our approach can be generalized to gain insights into active gels, microswimmers, and diverse other experimental active matter systems.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
NASA NTRS2020

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Hypothesis tests on Rayleigh wave radiation pattern shapes: a theoretical assessment of idealized source screening

SUMMARY Shallow seismic sources excite Rayleigh wave ground motion with azimuthally dependent radiation patterns. We place binary hypothesis tests on theoretical models of such radiation patterns to screen cylindrically symmetric sources (like explosions) from non-symmetric sources (like non-vertical dip-slip or non-VDS faults). These models for data include sources with several unknown parameters, contaminated by Gaussian noise and embedded in a layered half-space. The generalized maximum likelihood ratio tests that we derive from these data models produce screening statistics and decision rules that depend on measured, noisy ground motion at discrete sensor locations. We explicitly quantify how the screening power of these statistics increase with the size of any dip-slip and strike-slip components of the source, relative to noise (faulting signal strength) and how they vary with network geometry. As applications of our theory, we apply these tests to (1) find optimal sensor locations that maximize the probability of screening non-circular radiation patterns and (2) invert for the largest non-VDS faulting signal that could be mistakenly attributed to an explosion with damage, at a particular attribution probability. Finally, we quantify how certain errors that are sourced by opening cracks increase screening rate errors. While such theoretical solutions are ideal and require future validation, they remain important in underground explosion monitoring scenarios because they provide fundamental physical limits on the discrimination power of tests that screen explosive from non-VDS faulting sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Animal movement estimation and network-based epidemic modeling: Illustration for the swine industry in Iowa (US)

Animal movement plays a critical role in disease transmission between farms. However, in the United States, the lack of available animal shipment data, sometimes coupled with a lack of detailed information about farm demographics and characteristics, presents great challenges for epidemic modeling and prediction. In this study, we proposed a new method based on the maximum entropy to generate “synthetic” animal movement networks, considering available statistics about the premises operation type, operation size, and the distance between premises. We illustrated our method for the swine movement networks in Iowa and performed network analyses to gain insights into the swine industry. We then applied the generated networks to a network-based epidemic model to identify potential system vulnerabilities in terms of disease transmission. The model was parameterized for African Swine Fever (ASF) as the US swine industry is quite concerned about this disease. Results show that premises with a central role in the network are more vulnerable to disease outbreaks and play an important role in disease spread. Simulations with outbreaks starting from random farms reveal no significant large outbreaks, indicating the system’s relative robustness against arbitrary disease introductions. However, outbreaks originating from high out-degree farms can lead to large epidemic sizes. This underscores the importance for stakeholders and policymakers to continue improving animal movement records and traceability programs in the US and the value of making that data available to epidemiologists and modelers to better understand risk and inform strategies aimed to cost-effectively prevent and control disease transmission. Our approach could be easily adapted to estimate movement networks in other animal production systems and to inform disease spread models for various infectious diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1981

The magnifying glass - A feature space local expansion for visual analysis

The Magnifying Glass Transformation (MGT) technique is proposed, as a multichannel spectral operation yielding visual imagery which is enhanced in a specified spectral vicinity, guided by the statistics of training samples. An application example is that in which the discrimination among spectral neighbors within an interactive display may be increased without altering distant object appearances or overall interpretation. A direct histogram specification technique is applied to the channels within the multispectral image so that a subset of the spectral domain occupies an increased fraction of the domain. The transformation is carried out by obtaining the training information, establishing the condition of the covariance matrix, determining the influenced solid, and initializing the lookup table. Finally, the image is transformed.

Juday, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Groups of galaxies in the Center for Astrophysics redshift survey

By applying the Huchra and Geller (1982) objective group identification algorithm to the Center for Astrophysics' redshift survey, a catalog of 128 groups with three or more members is extracted, and 92 of these are used as a statistical sample. A comparison of the distribution of group centers with the distribution of all galaxies in the survey indicates qualitatively that groups trace the large-scale structure of the region. The physical properties of groups may be related to the details of large-scale structure, and it is concluded that differences among group catalogs may be due to the properties of large-scale structures and their location relative to the survey limits.

Ramella, Massimo↗
NASA NTRS2002

Effects of prolonged bed rest on the total peripheral resistance baroreflex

Orthostatic intolerance following prolonged exposure to microgravity continues to be a primary concern of the human space program. Reduced autonomic tone has been demonstrated to contribute to this phenomenon, and the heart rate baroreflex, in particular, has been repeatedly shown to be impaired. However, only the works of Yelle et al. have attempted to address the role of the total peripheral resistance (TPR) baroreflex, a potentially more significant contributor to blood pressure regulation. We applied a previously developed method for estimating the static gains of both the arterial and cardiopulmonary TPR baroreflexes to data obtained before and after 16-day bed rest. Reductions in the estimated static gains of the arterial (statistically significant) and cardiopulmonary TPR baroreflexes were found after bed rest. This study supports the works of Yelle et al, which imply that the TPR baroreflex is reduced after spaceflight.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2012

Systematic Biases in Parameter Estimation of Binary Black-Hole Mergers

Parameter estimation of binary-black-hole merger events in gravitational-wave data relies on matched filtering techniques, which, in turn, depend on accurate model waveforms. Here we characterize the systematic biases introduced in measuring astrophysical parameters of binary black holes by applying the currently most accurate effective-one-body templates to simulated data containing non-spinning numerical-relativity waveforms. For advanced ground-based detectors, we find that the systematic biases are well within the statistical error for realistic signal-to-noise ratios (SNR). These biases grow to be comparable to the statistical errors at high signal-to-noise ratios for ground-based instruments (SNR approximately 50) but never dominate the error budget. At the much larger signal-to-noise ratios expected for space-based detectors, these biases will become large compared to the statistical errors but are small enough (at most a few percent in the black-hole masses) that we expect they should not affect broad astrophysical conclusions that may be drawn from the data.

Littenberg, Tyson B.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Overview of the Digitization Workflow Post Image Acquisition of Apollo Lunar and Antarctic Meteorite Samples Using Agisoft Photoscan for the NASA 3D Astromaterials Virtual Samples Collection

The 3D Virtual Astromaterials Samples (3DVAS) collection is a multi-year funded project to create a digital database of sixty Apollo Lunar and Antarctic Meteorite samples following non-destructive documentation conservation protocols. After initial image processing, the photos are evaluated and processed using unique structure-from-motion photogrammetric techniques in a high performance modelling software designed to create a 3D model from 2D images: Agisoft Photoscan Pro. Agisoft Photoscan Pro uses image processing algorithms and techniques originating in computer vision to resolve 3D models for accurate and detailed visualization of a subject. The software provides a stepwise process that is tailored per model based on spatial and specular reflectance properties, for example. The process includes: photo alignment, creation of a dense point cloud, mesh, and finally texture. Photo alignment is dependent on model properties. The 3DVAS process requires a special rotation platform with calibrated photogrammetric targets, specific distance rotation protocols, and a contrasting background for alignment and scale accuracy. As a result of the photographic process, alignment will complete with two mirrored hemispheres that, in a sense, represent the 2D images overlapping to create a 3D model. Each dense point cloud is analyzed with provided statistical measures in a gradual selection process to eliminate outliers. The point cloud is reduced to include only data valuable to the final model. When a precise dense point cloud is achieved, a mesh and texture are applied. Each model is scaled with scale bar accuracies within 100 microns. Each sample has its own intimate process for modelling; there is no standard for the parameters required in the final creation of a high resolution model. By processing multiple samples, a skill is gained in practice to allow a close definition of the original sample and will result in the most detailed version of the sample shell. This process completes one-fifth of the 3DVAS protocol for providing accurate digital documentation. Each model shell is merged with X-ray Computed Tomography data to create a full volumetric sample. All 3DVAS data will be served on NASA's Astromaterials Acquisition and Curation website with an early subset of data available in 2019 and the 3D Virtual Astromaterials Samples Collection launch in 2020.

Thomas, Andi B.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Statistical Performance Analysis on Approximately 320 Perovskite Single- and Two-Junction Solar Cells and Modules from >30 Global Sources

As perovskite photovoltaics (PV) advance from the laboratory to commercial prototypes, their accurate and reliable performance testing is becoming increasingly important. The well documented dynamic response of perovskite solar cells to an external applied voltage has led to the development of steady-state performance measurement methods; however, these methods have not been widely adopted by the perovskite PV community. A key reason for this is that steady-state measurement methods take tens of minutes to complete, as opposed to conventional "fast" current-voltage (I-V) measurements usually lasting a few seconds. Fast I-Vs arise from a snapshot, almost always not a steady-state condition of the device; however, given their widespread use, the question arises: how do performance parameters of perovskite PV compare when measured with fast I-V and with a steady-state method? We compile results from ca. 320 perovskite PV cells and modules, including single junction, and two-terminal perovskite-perovskite and perovskite-Si tandems, and show that fast I-Vs can provide a useful measure of the open-circuit voltage of the devices, while the short-circuit current and the overall efficiency can be widely misestimated. We discuss implications of these findings on performance testing protocols and propose possible options for fast and accurate testing of perovskite PV.

asymptotic↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cosmic ray spectrum of protons plus helium nuclei between 6 and 158 TeV from HAWC data

Here, a measurement with high statistics of the differential energy spectrum of light elements in cosmic rays, in particular, of primary H plus He nuclei, is reported. The spectrum is presented in the energy range from 6 to 158 TeV per nucleus. Data was collected with the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Observatory between June 2015 and June 2019. The analysis was based on a Bayesian unfolding procedure, which was applied on a subsample of vertical HAWC data that was enriched to 82% of events induced by light nuclei. To achieve the mass separation, a cut on the lateral age of air shower data was set guided by predictions of CORSIKA/QGSJET-II-04 simulations. The measured spectrum is consistent with a broken power-law spectrum and shows a kneelike feature at around E = 24.0$^{+3.6}_{-3.1}$ TeV , with a spectral index γ = -2.51 ± 0.02 before the break and with γ = -2.83 ± 0.02 above it. The feature has a statistical significance of 4.1σ. Within systematic uncertainties, the significance of the spectral break is 0.8σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Markov framework for generalized post-event systems recovery modeling: From single to multihazards

State-dependent models can be used to represent the system recovery process as a series of stochastic transitions from lower to higher functional states. However, the applications of these models have been limited in scope and there is a lack of a generalized recovery modeling framework. A generalized framework would permit a robust forecasting of systems and system-of-systems recovery under multiple hazards, and more broadly, would contribute to community disaster preparedness. This paper develops a generalized post hazard-event recovery modeling framework based on state-dependent Markov-type processes. We then apply the proposed framework to solve a spectrum of problems that range from hind-casting single-system recovery following a single hazard event to forecasting post-event trajectories under multiple hazards and modeling the recovery of a system-of-systems. First, Markov chains are used to hind-cast the observed recovery for a portfolio of buildings affected by the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake. Next, Markov processes are used to formulate a parametric post hazard-event recovery model, which can be updated using Bayesian statistics when relevant datasets become available. Semi-Markov processes are then used to develop a more general model of single hazard recovery, which accounts for the intensity of the loading and level of damage caused by the event. Semi-Markov processes with non-renewal features are then used to account for multihazard interactions in a post-event recovery model, and applied to a case study that involves a community in Charleston, South Carolina. Lastly, Markov-type processes are combined with Bayesian networks to model the recovery of residential, commercial, educational, and industrial buildings (system-of-systems) following a hazard event. Overall, these applications demonstrate the versatility of the Markov framework towards handling recovery problems with varying levels of complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

The microbiologist's guide to metaproteomics

Metaproteomics is an emerging approach for studying microbiomes, offering the ability to characterize proteins that underpin microbial functionality within diverse ecosystems. As the primary catalytic and structural components of microbiomes, proteins provide unique insights into the active processes and ecological roles of microbial communities. By integrating metaproteomics with other omics disciplines, researchers can gain a comprehensive understanding of microbial ecology, interactions, and functional dynamics. This review, developed by the Metaproteomics Initiative (www.metaproteomics.org), serves as a practical guide for both microbiome and proteomics researchers, presenting key principles, state-of-the-art methodologies, and analytical workflows essential to metaproteomics. Topics covered include experimental design, sample preparation, mass spectrometry techniques, data analysis strategies, and statistical approaches.

bioinformatics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative data sets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student t process regression. We apply Student t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via colouring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A generalized Boltzmann kinetic theory for strongly magnetized plasmas with application to friction

Coulomb collisions in plasmas are typically modeled using the Boltzmann collision operator, or its variants, which apply to weakly magnetized plasmas in which the typical gyroradius of particles significantly exceeds the Debye length. Conversely, O’Neil has developed a kinetic theory to treat plasmas that are so strongly magnetized that the typical gyroradius of particles is much smaller than the distance of the closest approach in a binary collision. Here, we develop a generalized collision operator that applies across the full range of magnetization strength. Since there is no closed-form solution for the scattering cross section when plasma is strongly magnetized, the input to the collision operator is obtained by numerically calculating particle trajectories. To demonstrate novel physics associated with strong magnetization, it is used to compute the friction force on a massive test charge. In addition to the traditional stopping power component, this is found to exhibit a transverse component that is perpendicular to both the velocity and Lorentz force vectors in the strongly magnetized regime, as was predicted recently using linear response theory. As a result, good agreement is found between the collision theory and linear response theory in the regime in which both apply, but the new collision theory also applies to stronger magnetization strength regimes than the linear response theory is expected to apply in.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data augmentation for disruption prediction via robust surrogate models

The goal of this work is to generate large statistically representative datasets to train machine learning models for disruption prediction provided by data from few existing discharges. Such a comprehensive training database is important to achieve satisfying and reliable prediction results in artificial neural network classifiers. Here, we aim for a robust augmentation of the training database for multivariate time series data using Student-t process regression. We apply Student-t process regression in a state space formulation via Bayesian filtering to tackle challenges imposed by outliers and noise in the training data set and to reduce the computational complexity. Thus, the method can also be used if the time resolution is high. We use an uncorrelated model for each dimension and impose correlations afterwards via coloring transformations. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach on plasma diagnostics data of three different disruption classes from the DIII-D tokamak. To evaluate if the distribution of the generated data is similar to the training data, we additionally perform statistical analyses using methods from time series analysis, descriptive statistics, and classic machine learning clustering algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗