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At least 1,405 records · Page 78
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Maximum Concentration Values Review for Use in NUCON Vapor Abatement Unit Testing

Exponent has recommended that “high inlet spike” concentrations be verified for accuracy regarding their representation of the maximum measured headspace concentrations for tanks at Hanford. Exponent further recommended that “high inlet spike” concentrations of chemicals of potential concern (COPCs) be inclusive of surrogate COPCs. In the initial analysis (Rev. A Test Plan), only analytical results from the Site-Wide Industrial Hygiene Database (SWIHD) were used. The reason for this initial decision was a concern about Washington River Protection Solutions (WRPS) taking responsibility for results that were not produced during their contract tenure. As a result of Exponent’s comments, WRPS verified the “high inlet spike” values for accuracy against the data for single-shell tanks in all the historical databases, not only SWIHD. Measurements made prior to interim waste stabilization or waste retrieval were not considered in the verification of maximum measured concentrations as they are not representative of current tank farm conditions. Data for surrogate COPCs were also considered in determining the “high inlet spike” concentrations. Table S.1 shows the newly evaluated concentrations (COPC and surrogate). The original and revised test conditions are also shown with changes indicated by red text.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2019

Rigorous Data Fusion for Computationally Expensive Simulations

This manuscript comprises the final report for the 1-year, FY19 LDRD project "Rigorous Data Fusion for Computationally Expensive Simulations," wherein an alternative approach to Bayesian calibration was developed based a new sampling technique called VoroSpokes. Vorospokes is a novel quadrature and sampling framework defined with respect to Voronoi tessellations of bounded domains in $R^d$ developed within this project. In this work, we first establish local quadrature and sampling results on convex polytopes using randomly directed rays, or spokes, to approximate the quantities of interest for a specified target function. A theoretical justification for both procedures is provided along with empirical results demonstrating the unbiased convergence in the resulting estimates/samples. The local quadrature and sampling procedures are then extended to global procedures defined on more general domains by applying the local results to the cells of a Voronoi tessellation covering the domain in consideration. We then demonstrate how the proposed global sampling procedure can be used to define a natural framework for adaptively constructing Voronoi Piecewise Surrogate (VPS) approximations based on local error estimates. Finally, we show that the adaptive VPS procedure can be used to form a surrogate model approximation to a specified, potentially unnormalized, density function, and that the global sampling procedure can be used to efficiently draw independent samples from the surrogate density in parallel. The performance of the resulting VoroSpokes sampling framework is assessed on a collection of Bayesian inference problems and is shown to provide highly accurate posterior predictions which align with the results obtained using traditional methods such as Gibbs sampling and random-walk Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Importantly, the proposed framework provides a foundation for performing Bayesian inference tasks which is entirely independent from the theory of Markov chains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Technology Summary DNATRAX

DNATrax (DNA Tagged Reagents for Aerosol eXperiments) was developed to provide a safe simulant for understanding the transport and dispersion of pathogens. Specifically, it was developed as a safe surrogate for the Bacillus anthrasis spore bioagent, since most naturally occurring spores are not safe for public release. As DNA-tagged sugar particles, DNATrax aerosols are safe for public release. Scientists can add unique DNA barcode sequences to the sugar particles to produce a wide variety of test particles that can be easily differentiated, making it possible to release and test them simultaneously. The unique barcodes also eliminate the need to conduct decontamination between tests, dramatically reducing the cost and time to run experiments. Additionally, the surrogate offers a high-sensitivity detection method to understand key public health issues. We conducted both lab-based and largescale field studies using DNATrax to validate its capabilities for use as a pathogen surrogate. We have demonstrated the ability to produce DNATrax in a range of sizes, adjusting the microparticles to simulate different sized pathogens with ability to create unique sequences of DNA bases, enabling them to create a nearly unlimited variety of test particles.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Optimization of Geometric Perturbations on a Rod Moving Through a High Explosive Target

After completing a study to ensure the simulation results were converged, several high resolution 3D Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) simulations of copper rods impacting a high explosive (LX14) target were performed. This was then formulated into an optimization problem: I wanted to find the optimum shape and location of a perturbation on the rod that would maximize its erosion after it left the target. The shape of the perturbation was modeled as a 2D Gaussian bump and parameterized by its location along the rod axis (z 0 ) and amplitude (A). The final mass of the coherent part of the rod as it leaves the target was used as a metric to represent the erosion of the rod, and the optimization was formulated to maximize this metric with respect to the aforementioned design variables. Due to the expensive nature of the high-fidelity 3D SPH simulations, a surrogate model needed to be chosen so that many function calls to the optimizer would be feasible. Thus, a strategic full factorial sampling plan was chosen to build a dataset, which consisted of 24 high-fidelity simulations. Two surrogate models, a third order polynomial regression model and a Gaussian Process Model, were analyzed using a 14%/86% test/train holdout technique. The root mean square and R2 score of the test set was used to determine the best model, and the third order polynomial regression model was chosen as the surrogate model. Finally, the Nelder-Mead Simplex and Basin-hopping optimization algorithms were implemented, and it was found that the two algorithms gave slightly different optimum values. Nelder-Mead gave an optimum point of [z* 0 ;A*] = [9:9;0:4] and Basin-Hopping gave an optimum value of x* = [z* 0 ;A*] = [9:2;0:1].

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2014

A Sparse Grid Method for Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification with Application to Large Eddy Simulation Turbulence Models

There is wide agreement that the accuracy of turbulence models suffer from their sensitivity with respect to physical input data, the uncertainties of user-elected parameters, as well as the model inadequacy. However, the application of Bayesian inference to systematically quantify the uncertainties in parameters, by means of exploring posterior probability density functions (PPDFs), has been hindered by the prohibitively daunting computational cost associated with the large number of model executions, in addition to daunting computation time per one turbulence simulation. In this effort, we perform in this paper an adaptive hierarchical sparse grid surrogate modeling approach to Bayesian inference of large eddy simulation (LES). First, an adaptive hierarchical sparse grid surrogate for the output of forward models is constructed using a relatively small number of model executions. Using such surrogate, the likelihood function can be rapidly evaluated at any point in the parameter space without simulating the computationally expensive LES model. This method is essentially similar to those developed in Zhang et al. (Water Resour Res 49:6871–6892, 2013) for geophysical and groundwater models, but is adjusted and applied here for a much more challenging problem of uncertainty quantification of turbulence models. Through a numerical demonstration of the Smagorinsky model of two-dimensional flow around a cylinder at sub-critical Reynolds number, our approach is proven to significantly reduce the number of costly LES executions without losing much accuracy in the posterior probability estimation. Here, the model parameters are calibrated against synthetic data related to the mean flow velocity and Reynolds stresses at different locations in the flow wake. The influence of the user-elected LES parameters on the quality of output data will be discussed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

mystic : software for autonomous discovery and design under uncertainty

Throughout the diverse range of science and engineering applications, there is a growing desire to develop computational methods that can reliably predict the behavior of complex systems. Specifically, there is a strategic need for tools that can robustly forecast the behavior of complex physical systems, where data may be high-dimensional, noisy, or sparse, and models of the system may be time-dependent or include uncertainty. We use mystic to build tools that leverage statistical learning, physics-informed learning, and active learning in the efficient generation of reliably predictive surrogates for complex physical systems. mystic is a robust, proven, open-source optimization and uncertainty quantification toolkit with over a decade of use in the design and optimization of neutron instrumentation, solar-powered drones, and gasguns, and in iterative tuning of models for Raman spectroscopy and elastoplastic materials strength. Recent developments have focused on automated learning of statistically robust surrogates under uncertainty, with applications in materials in extreme environments, nanostructures, materials simulations and strength models, and the failure of shielding under particle radiation. In 2020, McKerns demonstrated active learning of optimally robust surrogates with respect to new simulated data for molecular dynamics simulations of materials mixing in warm dense matter, and is currently applying active learning to the automated steering of particle accelerator beams and the optimal design and control of quantum optical sensor instrumentation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerating Multiscale Materials Modeling with Machine Learning

The focus of this project is to accelerate and transform the workflow of multiscale materials modeling by developing an integrated toolchain seamlessly combining DFT, SNAP, LAMMPS, (shown in Figure 1-1) and a machine-learning (ML) model that will more efficiently extract information from a smaller set of first-principles calculations. Our ML model enables us to accelerate first-principles data generation by interpolating existing high fidelity data, and extend the simulation scale by extrapolating high fidelity data (10 2 atoms) to the mesoscale (10 4 atoms). It encodes the underlying physics of atomic interactions on the microscopic scale by adapting a variety of ML techniques such as deep neural networks (DNNs), and graph neural networks (GNNs). We developed a new surrogate model for density functional theory using deep neural networks. The developed ML surrogate is demonstrated in a workflow to generate accurate band energies, total energies, and density of the 298K and 933K Aluminum systems. Furthermore, the models can be used to predict the quantities of interest for systems with more number of atoms than the training data set. We have demonstrated that the ML model can be used to compute the quantities of interest for systems with 100,000 Al atoms. When compared with 2000 Al system the new surrogate model is as accurate as DFT, but three orders of magnitude faster. We also explored optimal experimental design techniques to choose the training data and novel Graph Neural Networks to train on smaller data sets. These are promising methods that need to be explored in the future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Data-Driven Multiscale Modeling for Predicting Microstructure and Mechanical Properties of 316L Stainless Steel

We have developed a long short-term memory stacked ensemble (LSTM-SE) surrogate modeling approach that can provide rapid predictions of microstructural evolution and the resultant mechanical properties of American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) 316L series stainless steel (316LSS) fuel cladding under conditions of varying temperature and radiation dose rate. To acquire training data, we developed and implemented a kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) model to simulate precipitation kinetics of M 23 C 6 , γ', and G phases within SS316L cladding. Experimentally reported precipitation kinetics of SS316L in literature were linked to the kinetic parameters of the simulated precipitation in our KMC model. The model was then used to simulate microstructure evolution under synthetically generated treatments of varying temperature and radiation dose rate, for periods of up to 3000 hours. Changes in volume fraction, number density, and particle size of precipitates were recorded, and particle area fractions were correlated using statistical methods to develop the surrogate model. Simultaneously, the mechanical properties of the simulated microstructures were evaluated using microstructure-based finite element method (FEM) analysis to determine the elastic modulus, yield stress, ultimate tensile strength, and elongation to failure of the aged microstructures. Using this approach, our surrogate model can predict precipitation behavior within 0.25% volume fraction and mechanical properties within 6% relative error from the values predicted by the KMC and FEM models using 50 training simulations as input. The trained recurrent neural network-based model can return estimations of precipitation kinetics and mechanical properties ~1000 times faster than the physics-based codes. This work demonstrates, as a proof of concept, that reactor material service lifetimes under variable service conditions can be predicted for a statistics-based model from a practicably obtainable dataset.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Study of Calibration Transportation Fuels from the Perspective of Spherical Droplet Flames

1. Well-designed surrogates can emulate burning behavior of complex fuels with fewer components. 2. S3 closely mimics the droplet burning behavior of RD5-87 even though no droplet burning targets were used. 3. Experimental results demonstrate that S3 is a viable surrogate for RD5-87 and hence commercial E10. 4. Validated surrogates allow for detailed numerical modelling of complex fuels with hundreds of components.

Brunson, Jordan↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Foster Dam Juvenile Fish Passage, 2018 (Final Report)

This report presents the results of a fish passage study conducted by the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Portland District (USACE) at Foster Dam (herein, Foster) during the spring (March–June) and fall (October–December) of 2018. The goal of this study was to provide biologists, engineers, resource managers, and regional decision-makers with information about passage of juvenile Chinook salmon and juvenile steelhead (or appropriate surrogates) through specific routes at Foster. The results of this study are intended to help facilitate decision-making regarding long-term measures for enhancing salmonid passage at Foster. Radio telemetry (RT) methods were instituted at low winter reservoir forebay elevation (low pool, 613 ft mean sea level (msl); spring 2018 and fall 2018) and high summer reservoir forebay elevation (high pool, 635 ft msl; late spring and early summer 2018) to accomplish the following objectives: I. Estimate the following passage metrics under typical operations (i.e., baseline conditions): a. Overall dam-passage survival and survival specific to each route of dam passage, calculated using two different methods: i. Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) estimate: Probability of survival from dam passage to detection at the Primary Array, 19 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of Foster. ii. Virtual Release/Dead Fish Correction (ViRDCt) estimate: Corrects the bias that occurs from misidentifying fish that did not survive dam-passage as alive at the tailrace Egress Array, allowing an estimate of survival from dam passage to this array, 2.5 rkm downstream of Foster. b. Route distribution (passage proportions by route; also known as “passage efficiencies”). c. Efficiency metrics i. Dam-passage efficiency (DPE), the proportion of total fish passing the dam relative to the number of total fish detected in the near forebay of the dam and therefore available to pass. ii. Fish passage efficiency (FPE), the proportion of fish passing via a non-turbine route, relative to the number of total fish in the near forebay and available to pass. iii. Fish weir efficiency (FWE) and spill bay efficiency (SBE), the proportion of fish passing the weir or spill bays, respectively, relative to the total number of fish passing the dam. d. Reservoir residency time (time elapsed between release into reservoir and dam passage) and travel times through the system. II. Estimate efficiency and effectiveness of the new fish weir, compared to the turbines and the spillway. III. Under alternative operations, compare passage through each route (turbines, weir, spillway) using a block/treatment (on/off) design similar to the 2015 and 2016 studies. IV. Estimate efficiency of the new fish weir operating at a low level of discharge (< 500 cfs) and a high level of discharge (= 500 cfs), as well as dam passage survival at each weir discharge level. V. Evaluate survival and behavior of hatchery summer steelhead to wild surrogate winter steelhead for potential use of summer steelhead as a surrogate species winter steelhead. VI. Evaluate juvenile passage rates in the auxiliary water supply (AWS), forebay water supply (FWS), and hatchery water supply (HWS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Differentiable Multiphysics Codes: A Breakthrough Technology for Simulation and Computing

This document summarizes the findings of a strategic planning exercise commissioned by the Weapons Simulation and Computing, Computational Physics (WSC/CP) program at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in FY24. During the year, the committee met with multiple stakeholder communities to gather input, opinions, suggestions and concerns which have been incorporated throughout this document. The key findings from this exercise are summarized: • The development of multiphysics modelling and simulation (mod/sim) codes and software technologies, their deployment on exascale compute platforms, and their broad adoption across the NNSA is a major success of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program and the Exascale Computing Project (ECP). Sustained investment in these core technologies is essential. • Today’s state of the art involves running ensembles of O(100K) simulations to perform uncertainty quantification (UQ) and design studies using multiple statistical methods such as Bayesian optimization to understand sensitivities of our models and explore parameterized design spaces. Even with exascale computing, we are practically limited to O(10) parameters in these studies since the number of simulations required to sample the space scales exponentially with the number of design parameters. • The data from these simulation ensembles is increasingly being used to train machine learned (ML) surrogates (or reduced order models, ROMs) which can then be used for optimization or real time design exploration. However, the trained surrogates are still limited in the number of parameters they can represent due to the sampling limitations previously noted. • Augmenting our suite of integrated multiphysics simulation codes, both current and emerging, with the ability to compute gradients (solution derivatives) of arbitrary simulation outputs with respect to (some or all) simulation inputs would be a breakthrough technology, opening the door to a new era of efficient and automated inverse design based on verified and validated mod/sim capabilities. • This capability, which we refer to as differentiable multiphysics codes (DMCs), would revolutionize both UQ and optimization studies by breaking the curse of dimensionality that presently limits our “gradient-free” ensemble based computing approach. A similar breakthrough occurred in the AI/ML community once the ability to compute gradients of arbitrary loss functions using back-propagation became commonplace. Gradient information from the multiphysics codes can also be used to dramatically improve the efficiency and scale of training of ML/ROM surrogates for rapid assessments. • Achieving this in our suite of codes will be a grand challenge, similar to the amount of effort that was required to transition from CPU to GPU computing. It will require buy-in from the entire WSC/CP program and beyond, including all integrated codes, physics and engineering models, third-party library dependencies and performance portability abstractions. It will also require investment in research and development of numerical methods for computing adjoints of coupled physics across multiple adaptively refined moving meshes and of stochastic (Monte Carlo) and mesh free (SPH) methods. • New software and numerical techniques, largely pioneered by the AI/ML community, make this feasible. Chief among these is automatic differentiation (AD), the ability to employ AD at point-wise locations in a physics calculation (instead of traditional black-box approaches) and the ability to perform “back-propagation in time” (or reverse mode AD) for non-linear partial differential equations (PDEs). Fundamentally, the conclusion of this strategic planning exercise is that the time is right to undertake a large scale effort in WSC, centered on the existing integrated codes, to continue the natural evolution of mod/sim in the age of AI/ML. Instead of attempting to replace mod/sim with purely data driven AI/ML models, we believe the key to success is to integrate AI/ML by building on top of the decades of hard-won knowledge and the verified/validated multiphysics modelling capability that is the hallmark of the ASC program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reinforcement Learning for In-Spill Optimization of the Mu2e Resonant Extraction: Compensating Non-Stationarity

We present design considerations and challenges for the fast machine learning component of a third-order resonant beam extraction regulation system being commissioned to deliver steady beam rates to the mu2e experiment at Fermilab. Dedicated quadrupoles drive the tune toward the 29/3 resonance each spill, extracting beam at kV multiwire septa. The overall Spill Regulation System consists of (1) a “slow” process using ~100-spill averages to adjust the base quad ramp infrequently, (2) a feedforward harmonic content compensator, and (3) the “fast” ML agent reacting during each ongoing spill with on-the-fly additive corrections to the sum of (1) and (2). We have demonstrated improved beam-rate steadying for a fast ML agent compared to a PID controller using a quasi-physical spill simulation, and demonstrated distillation of that simulation into a predictive surrogate model. Current work includes a data-and-training pipeline to generate data-aware surrogates with real-world dynamics, even as the dynamics shift unpredictably. The surrogates are to act as RL environments against which to train our fast ML control agents before deploying them on FPGA in the live system. Further current efforts focus on modeling and controlling beam loss around the storage ring, understanding additional available hardware inputs to the model, and the interplay of these with beam-steadying performance.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explainable and Differentiable Reinforcement Learning for Multi-objective Optimization in Particle Accelerators

Operating particle accelerators involves optimizing multiple goals simultaneously, which can be challenging due to trade-offs among objectives. While evolutionary algorithms like the genetic algorithm (GA) have been used for various Multi-Objective Optimization (MOO) tasks, they are not inherently suited for complex control problems. This talk highlights two variations of Reinforcement Learning (RL) for concurrently optimizing heat load and trip rates at the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF). The problem involves strict constraints on individual states, actions, and overall energy requirements of the beam. First, this talk highlights how differentiability can be harnessed through a Deep Differentiable Reinforcement Learning (DDRL) approach to address MOO issues within particle accelerators. We examine the DDRL method alongside Model Free Reinforcement Learning (MFRL), GA, and Bayesian Optimization (BO). The performance of these methods is assessed by generating a Pareto-front for two objectives. Our findings indicate that DDRL excels in handling high-dimensional problems more effectively than MFRL, BO, and GA. Next, we will show integration of explainable physics-based constraints into RL algorithms to enhance trans- parency and trust in decision-making processes by enabling users to verify that agents adhere to established physical principles. This surrogate function can be modeled using neural networks or sparse dictionary mod- els. By examining the mathematical form of the learned constraint function, we are able to confirm the agent has learned to use the established physics of each environment provided but the surrogate model. In addi- tion, we find that the introduction of a mathematical functional dictionary based surrogate model enables our reinforcement learning algorithms to reliably converge for difficult high-dimensional accelerator controls environments.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2022

A computational pipeline to generate a synthetic dataset of metal ion sorption to oxides for AI/ML exploration

The charged mineral/electrolyte interfaces are ubiquitous in the surface and subsurface–including the surroundings of the geological disposal sites for radioactive waste. Therefore, understanding how ions interact with charged surfaces is critically important for predicting radionuclide mobility in the case of waste leakage. At present, the Surface Complexation Models (SCMs) are the most successful thermodynamic frameworks to describe ion retention by mineral surfaces. SCMs are interfacial speciation models that account for the effect of the electric field generated by charged surfaces on sorption equilibria. These models have been successfully used to analyze and interpret a broad range of experimental observations including potentiometric and electrokinetic titrations or spectroscopy. Unfortunately, many of the current procedures to solve and fit SCM to experimental data are not optimal, which leads to a non-transferable or non-unique description of interfacial electrostatics and consequently of the strength and extent of ion retention by mineral surfaces. Recent developments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) offer a new avenue to replace SCM solvers and fitting algorithms with trained AI surrogates. Unfortunately, there is a lack of a standardized dataset covering a wide range of SCM parameter values available for AI exploration and training–a gap filled by this study. Here, we described the computational pipeline to generate synthetic SCM data and discussed approaches to transform this dataset into AI-learnable input. First, we used this pipeline to generate a synthetic dataset of electrostatic properties for a broad range of the prototypical oxide/electrolyte interfaces. The next step is to extend this dataset to include complex radionuclide sorption and complexation, and finally, to provide trained AI architectures able to infer SCMs parameter values rapidly from experimental data. Here, we illustrated the AI-surrogate development using the ensemble learning algorithms, such as Random Forest and Gradient Boosting. These surrogate models allow a rapid prediction of the SCM model parameters, do not rely on an initial guess, and guarantee convergence in all cases.

Li, Chunhui↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modelling of a Flow-Induced Oscillation, Two-Cylinder, Hydrokinetic Energy Converter Based on Experimental Data

The VIVACE Converter consists of cylindrical oscillators in tandem subjected to transverse flow-induced oscillations (FIOs) that can be improved by varying the system parameters for a given in-flow velocity: damping, stiffness, and in-flow center-to-center spacing. Compared to a single isolated cylinder, tandem cylinders can harness more hydrokinetic energy due to synergy in FIO. Experimental and numerical methods have been utilized to analyze the FIO and energy harnessing of VIVACE. A surrogate-based model of two tandem cylinders is developed to predict the power harvesting and corresponding efficiency by introducing a backpropagation neural network. It is then utilized to reduce excessive experimental or computational testing. The effects of spacing, damping, and stiffness on harvested power and efficiency of the established prediction-model are analyzed. At each selected flow velocity, optimization results of power harvesting using the prediction-model are calculated under different combinations of damping and stiffness. The main conclusions are: (1) The surrogate model, built on extensive experimental data for tandem cylinders, can predict the cylinder oscillatory response accurately. (2) Increasing the damping ratio range from 0–0.24 to 0–0.30 is beneficial for improving power efficiency, but has no significant effect on power harvesting. (3) In galloping, a spacing ratio of 1.57 has the highest optimal harnessed power and efficiency compared with other spacing values. (4) Two tandem cylinders can harness 2.01–4.67 times the optimal power of an isolated cylinder. In addition, the former can achieve 1.46–4.01 times the efficiency of the latter. (5) The surrogate model is an efficient predictive tool defining parameters of the Converter for improved energy acquisition.

backpropagation neural network↗
DOE OSTI2025

Aircraft in-situ measurements from SOCRATES constrain the anthropogenic perturbations of cloud droplet number

Aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) in warm clouds alter reflected shortwave radiation by influencing cloud microphysical and macrophysical properties. The variable of state controlling ACI is the cloud droplet number concentration (N d ). Here, we examine the perturbations in N d due to anthropogenic aerosols (ΔN d, PD-PI ) using a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) hosted in the sixth Community Atmosphere Model (CAM6). Surrogate models are created for the CAM6 PPE outputs and are used to generate 1 million model variants of CAM6 by sampling 45 sources of parameter uncertainty. The range of uncertain physical parameters related to ACI are constrained with observations of aerosol and cloud properties from SOCRATES. The likely range of uncertain parameters and the associated range of ΔN d, PD-PI are more strongly constrained with observations of N d relative to observations of cloud condensation nuclei. We conduct sensitivity tests of how constraints on ΔN d, PD-PI are affected by systematic uncertainties in observations and our limitations in our surrogate models created for CAM6 PPE outputs. Based on this, we provide guidance on the impact of reducing systematic uncertainty in airborne microphysical observations and in surrogate models.

Song, Ci [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United St↗
DOE OSTI2021

Creation of a prototype biomimetic fish to better understand impact trauma caused by hydropower turbine blade strikes

Biomimetic model organisms could be useful surrogates for live animals in many applications if the models have sufficient biofidelity. One such application is for use in field and laboratory tests of fish mortality associated with passage through hydropower turbines. Laboratory trials suggest that blade strikes are especially injurious and often causes mortality when fish are struck by thinner blades moving at higher velocities. Dose-response relationships have been created from these data, but the exact relationship between fish mortality and the actual forces enacted on fish during simulated blade strike testing remains unknown. Here, we describe the methods used to create a prototype biomimetic model fish composed of ballistic gelatin and covered with a surrogate skin to better approximate the biomechanical properties of a fish body. Frozen fish were scanned with high-fidelity laser scanners, and a 3D-printed, reusable mold was created from which to cast our gelatin model. Computed tomography scan data, imaged directly or taken from online data repositories, were also successfully used to create CAD models for use in additive manufacturing of molds. One 3-axis accelerometer was embedded into the gelatin to compare accelerometer data to dose-response data from previous laboratory research on live fish. The resulting model ( i.e. , Gelfish) had a statistically indistinguishable tissue durometer to that of real fish tissue and preliminary blade strike impact testing suggested its overall flexibility was similar to that of live fish. Gelfish was designed with biofidelity as its guiding principle and our results suggest initial experimentation was successful. Future research will include replication of initial Gelfish test results, quantitative measurement of model flexibility relative to real fish, and inclusion of surrogate skeletal structures to enhance biofidelity. Use of more sophisticated sensors would also better quantify the physical forces of blade strike impact and help determine how said forces correlate with rates of mortality observed during tests on live fish.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1998

Using Approximations to Accelerate Engineering Design Optimization

Optimization problems that arise in engineering design are often characterized by several features that hinder the use of standard nonlinear optimization techniques. Foremost among these features is that the functions used to define the engineering optimization problem often are computationally intensive. Within a standard nonlinear optimization algorithm, the computational expense of evaluating the functions that define the problem would necessarily be incurred for each iteration of the optimization algorithm. Faced with such prohibitive computational costs, an attractive alternative is to make use of surrogates within an optimization context since surrogates can be chosen or constructed so that they are typically much less expensive to compute. For the purposes of this paper, we will focus on the use of algebraic approximations as surrogates for the objective. In this paper we introduce the use of so-called merit functions that explicitly recognize the desirability of improving the current approximation to the objective during the course of the optimization. We define and experiment with the use of merit functions chosen to simultaneously improve both the solution to the optimization problem (the objective) and the quality of the approximation. Our goal is to further improve the effectiveness of our general approach without sacrificing any of its rigor.

Torczon, Virginia↗