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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

Solar Microflare with BATSE

Our work on detecting and cataloging solar microflares using an automated method is illustrated in the accompanying figure. The figure represents the solar microflare distribution during the period of April 1991 to November 1992, the height of solar activity after the launch of The Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO). It also shows the distribution extending below the distribution obtained at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) by manual means. We have implemented significant refinements in the search algorithm. The algorithm in its simplest form searches for transient events and based upon the distribution of the signal among the different Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detectors, we can assign it to be of solar origin if the signal distribution conforms to what one expects from a burst or transient from that direction. One of the major problems in the earlier effort was to search for microflares and large flares simultaneously. The requirement for a dynamic range of almost 10 (exp 4) resulted in ambiguous identifications at the low side of the distribution. We have since restricted the search to events with peak count rates under 2000 s (exp -1). Larger events are easily identified in the manual search, so we have chosen not to duplicate that work. The second problem was that missing counts existed below channel 0 in the Burst and Transient Source Experiment Large Area Detector data (BATSE LAD). These have been recovered and are now included in the search process. This provides data below 20 keV, and as we get closer to the thermal part of the spectrum, it provides greater sensitivity. The third problem was that too many BATSE detector were used in the search. Detectors with pointing directions far from the Sun, although detecting the event, had poorly known responses. Detectors greater than approximately 60 deg. off the Sun are no longer included in the search process. By reducing the systematic errors with the large off-axis detectors we can conduct more rigorous statistical tests of a candidate event to ascertain whether it originated from the solar direction. We have reprocessed the period in the early mission that covers solar maximum and constructed the microflare distribution shown in the figure. The results of the automated search start to deviate from the manual search results below about 1000 s (exp -1). Not only do we now have this distribution but we have a database of solar microflares that was used to construct the distribution. This database contains the signal at higher energy channels as well as that in channel zero (and below). From this one can, using software at GSFC, construct a photon spectrum for some of the larger microflares. It can also be used in other solar studies, especially those that correlate the X-ray flux with emission at other wavelengths. With some additional effort we hope to integrate this database into the corresponding one residing at the Solar Data Analysis Center at GSFC. The entire CGRO mission's data can now be reprocessed to obtain the microflare distribution at all phases of the solar cycle. This work is in progress. The results of this work will be presented in forthcoming scientific workshops and conferences.

Ryan, James M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Exploring New Pathways in Precipitation Assimilation

Precipitation assimilation poses a special challenge in that the forward model for rain in a global forecast system is based on parameterized physics, which can have large systematic errors that must be rectified to use precipitation data effectively within a standard statistical analysis framework. We examine some key issues in precipitation assimilation and describe several exploratory studies in assimilating rainfall and latent heating information in NASA's global data assimilation systems using the forecast model as a weak constraint. We present results from two research activities. The first is the assimilation of surface rainfall data using a time-continuous variational assimilation based on a column model of the full moist physics. The second is the assimilation of convective and stratiform latent heating retrievals from microwave sensors using a variational technique with physical parameters in the moist physics schemes as a control variable. We will show the impact of assimilating these data on analyses and forecasts. Among the lessons learned are (1) that the time-continuous application of moisture/temperature tendency corrections to mitigate model deficiencies offers an effective strategy for assimilating precipitation information, and (2) that the model prognostic variables must be allowed to directly respond to an improved rain and latent heating field within an analysis cycle to reap the full benefit of assimilating precipitation information. of microwave radiances versus retrieval information in raining areas, and initial efforts in developing ensemble techniques such as Kalman filter/smoother for precipitation assimilation. Looking to the future, we discuss new research directions including the assimilation

Hou, Arthur↗
NASA NTRS2004

Prototype Test Results for the Single Photon Detection SLR2000 Satellite Laser Ranging System

NASA's aging Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) network is scheduled to be replaced over the next few years with a fully automated single photon detection system. A prototype of this new system, called SLR2000, is currently undergoing field trials at the Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland to evaluate photon counting techniques and determine system hardware, software, and control algorithm performance levels and limitations. Newly developed diode pumped microchip lasers and quadrant microchannel plate-based photomultiplier tubes have enabled the development of this high repetition rate single photon detection SLR system. The SLR2000 receiver threshold is set at the single photoelectron (pe) level but tracks satellites with an average signal level typically much less than 1 pe. The 2 kHz laser fire rate aids in satellite acquisition and tracking and will enable closed loop tracking by accumulating single photon count statistics in a quadrant detector and using this information to correct for pointing errors. Laser transmitter beamwidths of 10 arcseconds (FWHM) or less are currently being used to maintain an adequate signal level for tracking while the receiver field of view (FOV) has been opened to 40 arcseconds to accommodate point ahead/look behind angular offsets. In the near future, the laser transmitter point ahead will be controlled by a pair of Risley prisms. This will allow the telescope to point behind and enable closure of the receiver FOV to roughly match the transmitter beam divergence. Bandpass filters (BPF) are removed for night tracking operations while 0.2 nm or 1 nm filters are used during daylight operation. Both day and night laser tracking of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites has been achieved with a laser transmitter energy of only 65 microjoules per pulse. Satellite tracking is presently limited to LEO satellites until the brassboard laser transmitter can be upgraded or replaced. Simultaneous tracks have also been observed with NASA s SLR standard, MOBLAS 7, for the purposes of data comparison and identification of biases. Work continues to optimize the receive optics; upgrade or replace the laser transmitter; calibrate the quadrant detector, the point ahead Risley prisms, and event timer verniers; and test normal point generation with SLR2000 data. This paper will report on the satellite tracking results to date, issues yet to be resolved, and future plans for the SLR2000 system.

Zagwodzki, Thomas W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

How Well Can Infrared Sounders Observe the Atmosphere and Surface Through Clouds?

Infrared sounders, such as the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI), and the Cross-track Infrared sounder (CrIS), have a cloud-impenetrable disadvantage in observing the atmosphere and surface under opaque cloudy conditions. However, recent studies indicate that hyperspectral, infrared sounders have the ability to detect cloud effective-optical and microphysical properties and to penetrate optically thin clouds in observing the atmosphere and surface to a certain degree. We have developed a retrieval scheme dealing with atmospheric conditions with cloud presence. This scheme can be used to analyze the retrieval accuracy of atmospheric and surface parameters under clear and cloudy conditions. In this paper, we present the surface emissivity results derived from IASI global measurements under both clear and cloudy conditions. The accuracy of surface emissivity derived under cloudy conditions is statistically estimated in comparison with those derived under clear sky conditions. The retrieval error caused by the clouds is shown as a function of cloud optical depth, which helps us to understand how well infrared sounders can observe the atmosphere and surface through clouds.

Zhou, Daniel K.↗
NASA NTRS2018

A Full Mission Summary (1997-2017) of the Attitude Control Performance during Orbit Trim Maneuvers Performed by the Cassini-Huygens Spacecraft

The Cassini mission was a highly successful 20-year mission to the planet Saturn that launched in 1997 and concluded its mission in September 2017. Over the course of its mission, Cassini executed hundreds of main engine and thruster-controlled ΔV maneuvers. This paper provides an overview of the Cassini maneuvers and provides data on the performance of the attitude controller and maneuver execution errors during these maneuvers. The paper concludes with an appendix documenting the vital statistics for all maneuvers that Cassini performed.

Brown, Todd S.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Seasonal Glacier and Snow Loading in Svalbard Recovered from Geodetic Observations

We processed time series from seven Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations and one Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) station in Svalbard. The goal was to capture the seasonal vertical displacements caused by elastic response of variable mass load due to ice and snow accumulation. We found that estimates of the annual signal in different GNSS solutions disagree by more than 3 mm which makes geophysical interpretation of raw GNSS time series problematic. To overcome this problem, we have used an enhanced Common Mode (CM) filtering technique. The time series are differentiated by the time series from remote station BJOS with known mass loading signals removed a priori. Using this technique, we have achieved a substantial reduction of the differences between the GNSS solutions. We have computed mass loading time series from a regional Climatic Mass Balance (CMB) and snow model that provides the amount of water equivalent at a 1 km resolution with a time step of 7 days. We found that the entire vertical loading signal is present in data of two totally independent techniques at a statistically significant level of 95%. This allowed us to conclude that the remaining errors in vertical signal derived from the CMB model are less than 0.2 mm at that significance level. Refining the land water storage loading model with a CMB model resulted in a reduction of the annual amplitude from 2:1 mm to 1:1 mm in the CM filtered time series, while it had only a marginal impact on raw time series. This provides a strong evidence that CM filtering is essential for revealing local periodic signals when a millimetre level of accuracy is required.

H P Kierulf↗
NASA NTRS2020

Recent Developments in Tolerancing Methods for Imaging Spectrometers

We discuss detailed tolerancing methods developed for imaging spectrometers at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology using the Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) imaging spectrometer as an illustrative example. We tolerance five metrics simultaneously: along-track response function, cross-track response function, spectral response function, spectral centroid uniformity, and spatial centroid uniformity. A method to calculate tolerancing sensitivities for each metric directly, a method to statistically combine Monte Carlo files from multiple tolerancing runs, and an example summary error budgets that communicate the key and driving tolerances for each metric are discussed. These methods facilitate rapid and semi-automated assessment of the predicted performance of imaging spectrometer systems from design through to assembly and launch life cycle, using metrics that are directly relevant to the extraction of accurate spectroscopic data from these instruments.

Mouroulis, Pantazis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Teal Cycle Ergometer Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System Human-in-the-Loop Ground Evaluation for Long-Duration Spaceflight

Purpose: To counter the deleterious effects of weightlessness on the cardiopulmonary system, astronauts living on the International Space Station exercise on a variety of countermeasure equipment including the Cycle Ergometer Vibration Isolation and Stabilization System (CEVIS). Operational since 2001, the onboard CEVIS will be replaced by a new model, known as Teal CEVIS (TC). As a part of ground evaluation, TC hardware underwent human-in-the-loop (HITL) testing to verify the TC hardware produces workloads that elicit physiologic responses comparable to a laboratory cycle ergometer (LAB). Methods: Seven subjects (5 M/2 F) performed submaximal cycle ergometer testing with indirect calorimetry measures on TC and LAB on separate test days. Testing consisted of graded 30 watt increases in workload until subjects reached 85% of age-predicted max heart rate (HR). Exercise outcomes included rate of oxygen uptake (VO2; liters/min), rate of energy expenditure (REE; kcal/min), and HR (beats/min). Linear mixed models (LMM) were fitted to compare VO2, REE, and HR responses between devices across power outputs with fixed effects for power (P) and device (D) and with random effects for subject. LMM effect coefficients (β), std errors (SE), pseudo-partial R2 of effects (pR2), and model likelihood ratio statistics (χ2, Pr(> chisq); α<.05) are provided. Results: LMM main effects for P and D were observed for VO2 (βp=.0107, SE = .0002, pR2=0.97; βd = -0.075, SE = 0.019, pR2=0.14; χ2(1)= 13.57, p<.001), such that VO2 was higher across stages on TC. Main effects of P and D were observed for REE (βp= .0586, SE = 0.001, pR2= 0.97; βd = -0.33208, SE = 0.099, pR2= 0.056; χ2(1)=10.481, p < .01), such that REE was higher across power outputs on TC. A P x D interaction was observed for HR, along with main effects for P and D (βp x d =-0.048, SE = 0.02, pR2=0.048; βp= 0.42, SE = 0.016, pR2=0.87; χ2(1) = 5.398, p = 0.02), such that higher workloads elicited a greater difference in HR between devices. Conclusions: HITL results show, TC elicits greater physiologic responses across power outputs compared to LAB. However, pR2 for device effects show small differences between devices. Therefore, TC can be expected to provide appropriate physiological stimulus across workloads and be considered a reliable tool to mitigate the effects of weightlessness.

Cycle Ergometer Vibration and Isolation System↗
NASA NTRS1978

Inspection error and its adverse effects - A model with implications for practitioners

Inspection error has clearly been shown to have adverse effects upon the results desired from a quality assurance sampling plan. These effects upon performance measures have been well documented from a statistical point of view. However, little work has been presented to convince the QC manager of the unfavorable cost consequences resulting from inspection error. This paper develops a very general, yet easily used, mathematical cost model. The basic format of the well-known Guthrie-Johns model is used. However, it is modified as required to assess the effects of attributes sampling errors of the first and second kind. The economic results, under different yet realistic conditions, will no doubt be of interest to QC practitioners who face similar problems daily. Sampling inspection plans are optimized to minimize economic losses due to inspection error. Unfortunately, any error at all results in some economic loss which cannot be compensated for by sampling plan design; however, improvements over plans which neglect the presence of inspection error are possible. Implications for human performance betterment programs are apparent, as are trade-offs between sampling plan modification and inspection and training improvements economics.

Collins, R. D., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Sequence History Update Tool

The Sequence History Update Tool performs Web-based sequence statistics archiving for Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO). Using a single UNIX command, the software takes advantage of sequencing conventions to automatically extract the needed statistics from multiple files. This information is then used to populate a PHP database, which is then seamlessly formatted into a dynamic Web page. This tool replaces a previous tedious and error-prone process of manually editing HTML code to construct a Web-based table. Because the tool manages all of the statistics gathering and file delivery to and from multiple data sources spread across multiple servers, there is also a considerable time and effort savings. With the use of The Sequence History Update Tool what previously took minutes is now done in less than 30 seconds, and now provides a more accurate archival record of the sequence commanding for MRO.

Khanampompan, Teerapat↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reducing Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Errors in the ERA5 Reanalysis with Machine Learning and 25 Years of Surface Observations

Earth system models struggle to simulate clouds and their radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, partly due to a lack of measurements and targeted cloud microphysics knowledge. We have evaluated biases of downwelling shortwave radiation in the ERA5 climate reanalysis using 25 years (1995–2019) of summertime surface measurements, collected on the Research and Supply Vessel (RSV) Aurora Australis, the Research Vessel (R/V) Investigator, and at Macquarie Island. During October–March daylight hours, the ERA5 simulation of SW down exhibited large errors (mean bias = 54 W m -2 , mean absolute error = 82 W m -2 , root-mean-square error = 132 W m -2 , and R 2 = 0.71). To determine whether we could improve these statistics, we bypassed ERA5’s radiative transfer model for SW down with machine learning–based models using a number of ERA5’s gridscale meteorological variables as predictors. These models were trained and tested with the surface measurements of SW down using a 10-fold shuffle split. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a random forest–based model setup had the best performance relative to ERA5, both with a near complete reduction of the mean bias error, a decrease in the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error by 25% ± 3%, and an increase in the R 2 value of 5% ± 1% over the 10 splits. Large improvements occurred at higher latitudes and cyclone cold sectors, where ERA5 performed most poorly. We further interpret our methods using Shapley additive explanations. Our results indicate that data-driven techniques could have an important role in simulating surface radiation fluxes and in improving reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Detecting and Testing for Structural Error in Computer Models with Application to the Community Atmospheric Model

Bayesian calibration/inversion methods for uncertain input parameters to simulation codes have generated an increasing amount of interest in the climate community in the recent years. This approach uses multiple disparate observational datasets related to the output of the simulator of interest to yield a probabilistic constraint on the uncertain inputs (i.e. probability distribution). A major challenge in applying Bayesian calibration methods to simulation codes is related to the possible presence of a large structural error in the output fields of interest; that is, the presence of discrepancy between the observed and the simulated output that is neither explained by the uncertainty in the inputs nor the observations. We present here methods to test for and visualize structural error in an ensemble of input-perturbed simulations. The methods are based on bootstrap (resmpling) test statistics and well-known metrics to quantify the difference between two probability distributions. The proposed methods are demonstrated using selected precipitation output fields of the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM), which are compared to observations provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The methods are found to be useful in identifying regions and seasons with a large structural error. The proposed structural error detection methodology can be used to screen multiple observational datasets of interest for structural error, making it possible to retain only the datasets with a small structural error for use in Bayesian calibration. In addition, information about the amount of structural error can be valuable to model developers.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

A line-source method for aligning on-board and other pinhole SPECT systems

Purpose: In order to achieve functional and molecular imaging as patients are in position for radiation therapy, a robotic multipinhole SPECT system is being developed. Alignment of the SPECT system—to the linear accelerator (LINAC) coordinate frame and to the coordinate frames of other on-board imaging systems such as cone-beam CT (CBCT)—is essential for target localization and image reconstruction. An alignment method that utilizes line sources and one pinhole projection is proposed and investigated to achieve this goal. Potentially, this method could also be applied to the calibration of the other pinhole SPECT systems.Methods: An alignment model consisting of multiple alignment parameters was developed which maps line sources in three-dimensional (3D) space to their two-dimensional (2D) projections on the SPECT detector. In a computer-simulation study, 3D coordinates of line-sources were defined in a reference room coordinate frame, such as the LINAC coordinate frame. Corresponding 2D line-source projections were generated by computer simulation that included SPECT blurring and noise effects. The Radon transform was utilized to detect angles (α) and offsets (ρ) of the line-source projections. Alignment parameters were then estimated by a nonlinear least squares method, based on the α and ρ values and the alignment model. Alignment performance was evaluated as a function of number of line sources, Radon transform accuracy, finite line-source width, intrinsic camera resolution, Poisson noise, and acquisition geometry. Experimental evaluations were performed using a physical line-source phantom and a pinhole-collimated gamma camera attached to a robot.Results: In computer-simulation studies, when there was no error in determining angles (α) and offsets (ρ) of the measured projections, six alignment parameters (three translational and three rotational) were estimated perfectly using three line sources. When angles (α) and offsets (ρ) were provided by the Radon transform, estimation accuracy was reduced. The estimation error was associated with rounding errors of Radon transform, finite line-source width, Poisson noise, number of line sources, intrinsic camera resolution, and detector acquisition geometry. Statistically, the estimation accuracy was significantly improved by using four line sources rather than three and by thinner line-source projections (obtained by better intrinsic detector resolution). With five line sources, median errors were 0.2 mm for the detector translations, 0.7 mm for the detector radius of rotation, and less than 0.5° for detector rotation, tilt, and twist. In experimental evaluations, average errors relative to a different, independent registration technique were about 1.8 mm for detector translations, 1.1 mm for the detector radius of rotation (ROR), 0.5° and 0.4° for detector rotation and tilt, respectively, and 1.2° for detector twist.Conclusions: Alignment parameters can be estimated using one pinhole projection of line sources. Alignment errors are largely associated with limited accuracy of the Radon transform in determining angles (α) and offsets (ρ) of the line-source projections. This alignment method may be important for multipinhole SPECT, where relative pinhole alignment may vary during rotation. For pinhole and multipinhole SPECT imaging on-board radiation therapy machines, the method could provide alignment of SPECT coordinates with those of CBCT and the LINAC.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2023

RTN-056: Study of the Photon Transfer Curve in the CCD detectors of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory

The RECA internship program provides Colombian students with an opportunity to enhance their research skills in Astronomy, Astrophysics, and Cosmology. During this three-month program, our main objective was to study the Photon Transfer Curves (PTC) of the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, specifically the gain, and to compare it with the gain obtained through pairs of flats. Overall, the study of PTCs is crucial in understanding the performance of detectors and instruments used in Astronomy. The Vera C. Rubin Observatory is an important facility that will enable researchers to carry out a wide range of studies in this field, making it essential to investigate its gain performance. We used run 13144 to construct the PTCs and 13186 to analyze the crosstalk. We employed the LSST Science Pipelines (also known as the DM stack), a software under development for this observatory, which performs all the necessary reductions for the construction of the PTCs. We also used simulations to replicate the observed effects. Initially, we found a 5% difference between the gain calculated by PTC and pairs of flats for a flow range between 5000 and 10000 ADU. Simulations showed that this difference was due to the handling of statistics and the assumption that the distribution following the Lupton equation is Gaussian. We found an error interval for this flow region based on the vendor, with (1.8 ± 0.7, 4.1 ± 0.9) % for E2V and (0.85 ± 0.7, 2.2 ± 0.9) % for ITL. From the PTC, we also obtained the average Full Well Capacity of LSSTCam as 130000 ± 10000$ electrons. We identified a list of segments where we found differences with the results obtained by SLAC National Acceleration Laboratory in PTC parameters, low saturation level, or other defects. We detected and corrected the effect of statistics in the gain calculation using pairs of flats and proposed a code change, which was implemented in the pipeline software. We do not recommend correcting for crosstalk as it does not significantly affect the parameters and does not change the shape of the PTC. However, the opposite is true for the nonlinearity correction.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1991

Compression of digital images over local area networks. Appendix 1: Item 3

Differential Pulse Code Modulation (DPCM) has been used with speech for many years. It has not been as successful for images because of poor edge performance. The only corruption in DPC is quantizer error but this corruption becomes quite large in the region of an edge because of the abrupt changes in the statistics of the signal. We introduce two improved DPCM schemes; Edge correcting DPCM and Edge Preservation Differential Coding. These two coding schemes will detect the edges and take action to correct them. In an Edge Correcting scheme, the quantizer error for an edge is encoded using a recursive quantizer with entropy coding and sent to the receiver as side information. In an Edge Preserving scheme, when the quantizer input falls in the overload region, the quantizer error is encoded and sent to the receiver repeatedly until the quantizer input falls in the inner levels. Therefore these coding schemes increase the bit rate in the region of an edge and require variable rate channels. We implement these two variable rate coding schemes on a token wing network. Timed token protocol supports two classes of messages; asynchronous and synchronous. The synchronous class provides a pre-allocated bandwidth and guaranteed response time. The remaining bandwidth is dynamically allocated to the asynchronous class. The Edge Correcting DPCM is simulated by considering the edge information under the asynchronous class. For the simulation of the Edge Preserving scheme, the amount of information sent each time is fixed, but the length of the packet or the bit rate for that packet is chosen depending on the availability capacity. The performance of the network, and the performance of the image coding algorithms, is studied.

Gorjala, Bhargavi↗
DOE OSTI2018

Validation of a Statistical Methodology for Extracting Vegetation Feedbacks: Focus on North African Ecosystems in the Community Earth System Model

Generalized equilibrium feedback assessment (GEFA) is a potentially valuable multivariate statistical tool for extracting vegetation feedbacks to the atmosphere in either observations or coupled Earth system models. The reliability of GEFA at capturing the terrestrial impacts on regional climate is demonstrated here using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model (CESM), with focus on North Africa. The feedback is assessed statistically by applying GEFA to output from a fully coupled control run. To reduce the sampling error caused by short data records, the traditional or full GEFA is refined through stepwise GEFA by dropping unimportant forcings. Two ensembles of dynamical experiments are developed for the Sahel or West African monsoon region against which GEFA-based vegetation feedbacks are evaluated. In these dynamical experiments, regional leaf area index (LAI) is modified either alone or in conjunction with soil moisture, with the latter runs motivated by strong regional soil moisture–LAI coupling. Stepwise GEFA boasts higher consistency between statistically and dynamically assessed atmospheric responses to land surface anomalies than full GEFA, especially with short data records. GEFA-based atmospheric responses are more consistent with the coupled soil moisture–LAI experiments, indicating that GEFA is assessing the combined impacts of coupled vegetation and soil moisture. Both the statistical and dynamical assessments reveal a negative vegetation–rainfall feedback in the Sahel associated with an atmospheric stability mechanism in CESM versus a weaker positive feedback in the West African monsoon region associated with a moisture recycling mechanism in CESM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Real-Time Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station High-Resolution Model Implementation and Verification

Customer: NASA's Launch Services Program (LSP), Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO), and Space Launch System (SLS) programs. NASA's LSP, GSDO, SLS and other programs at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) use the daily and weekly weather forecasts issued by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) as decision tools for their day-to-day and launch operations on the Eastern Range (ER). For example, to determine if they need to limit activities such as vehicle transport to the launch pad, protect people, structures or exposed launch vehicles given a threat of severe weather, or reschedule other critical operations. The 45 WS uses numerical weather prediction models as a guide for these weather forecasts, particularly the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) 1.67 kilometer Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Considering the 45 WS forecasters' and Launch Weather Officers' (LWO) extensive use of the AFWA model, the 45 WS proposed a task at the September 2013 Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) Tasking Meeting requesting the AMU verify this model. Due to the lack of archived model data available from AFWA, verification is not yet possible. Instead, the AMU proposed to implement and verify the performance of an ER version of the AMU high-resolution WRF Environmental Modeling System (EMS) model (Watson 2013) in real-time. The tasking group agreed to this proposal; therefore the AMU implemented the WRF-EMS model on the second of two NASA AMU modeling clusters. The model was set up with a triple-nested grid configuration over KSC/CCAFS based on previous AMU work (Watson 2013). The outer domain (D01) has 12-kilometer grid spacing, the middle domain (D02) has 4-kilometer grid spacing, and the inner domain (D03) has 1.33-kilometer grid spacing. The model runs a 12-hour forecast every hour, D01 and D02 domain outputs are available once an hour and D03 is every 15 minutes during the forecast period. The AMU assessed the WRF-EMS 1.33-kilometer domain model performance for the 2014 warm season (May-September). Verification statistics were computed using the Model Evaluation Tools, which compared the model forecasts to observations. The mean error values were close to 0 and the root mean square error values were less than 1.8 for mean sea-level pressure (millibars), temperature (degrees Kelvin), dewpoint temperature (degrees Kelvin), and wind speed (per millisecond), all very small differences between the forecast and observations considering the normal magnitudes of the parameters. The precipitation forecast verification results showed consistent under-forecasting of the precipitation object size. This could be an artifact of calculating the statistics for each hour rather than for the entire 12-hour period. The AMU will continue to generate verification statistics for the 1.33-kilometer WRF-EMS domain as data become available in future cool and warm seasons. More data will produce more robust statistics and reveal a more accurate assessment of model performance. Once the formal task was complete, the AMU conducted additional work to better understand the wind direction results. The results were stratified diurnally and by wind speed to determine what effects the stratifications would have on the model wind direction verification statistics. The results are summarized in the addendum at the end of this report. In addition to verifying the model's performance, the AMU also made the output available in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System II (AWIPS II). This allows the 45 WS and AMU staff to customize the model output display on the AMU and Range Weather Operations AWIPS II client computers and conduct real-time subjective analyses. In the future, the AMU will implement an updated version of the WRF-EMS model that incorporates local data assimilation. This model will also run in real-time and be made available in AWIPS II.

Numerical Weather Prediction↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-JeP3-02: Comparison of Magnitude and Frequency of Patient Positioning Errors in Breast Irradiation Using AlignRT 3D Optical Surface Imaging and Skin Mark Techniques

Purpose: To evaluate clinical usefulness of AlignRT (Vision RT Ltd., London, UK) in reducing patient positioning errors in breast irradiation. Methods: 60 patients undergoing whole breast irradiation were selected for this study. Patients were treated to the left or right breast lying on Qfix Access breast board (Qfix, Avondale, PA) in supine position for 28 fractions using tangential fields. 30 patients were aligned using AlignRT by aligning a breast surface region of interest (ROI) to the same area from a reference surface image extracted from planning CT. When the patient’s surface image deviated from the reference by more than 3mm on one or more translational and rotational directions, a new reference was acquired using AlignRT in-room cameras. The other 30 patients were aligned to the skin marks with room lasers. On-Board MV portal images of medial field were taken daily and matched to the DRRs. The magnitude and frequency of positioning errors were determined from measured translational shifts. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to evaluate statistical differences of positional accuracy and precision between AlignRT and non-AlignRT patients. Results: The percentage of port images with no shift required was 46.5% and 27.0% in vertical, 49.8% and 25.8% in longitudinal, 47.6% and 28.5% in lateral for AlignRT and non-AlignRT patients, respectively. The percentage of port images requiring more than 3mm shifts was 18.1% and 35.1% in vertical, 28.6% and 50.8% in longitudinal, 11.3% and 24.2% in lateral for AlignRT and non-AlignRT patients, respectively. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test showed that there were significant differences between the frequency distributions of AlignRT and non-AlignRT in vertical, longitudinal, and lateral shifts. Conclusion: As confirmed by port images, AlignRT-assisted patient positioning can significantly reduce the frequency and magnitude of patient setup errors in breast irradiation compared to the use of lasers and skin marks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗