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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A search for ultrahigh-energy neutrinos associated with astrophysical sources using the third flight of ANITA

The ANtarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) long-duration balloon experiment is sensitive to interactions of ultrahigh-energy (E>10 18 eV) neutrinos in the Antarctic ice sheet. The third flight of ANITA, lasting 22 days, began in December 2014. We develop a methodology to search for energetic neutrinos spatially and temporally coincident with potential source classes in ANITA data. This methodology is applied to several source classes: the potential IceCube-identified neutrino sources TXS 0506+056 and NGC 1068, flaring high-energy blazars reported by the Fermi All-Sky Variability Analysis, gamma-ray bursts, and supernovae. Among searches within the five source classes, one candidate was identified as associated with SN 2015D, although not at a statistically significant level. Finally, we proceed to place upper limits on the source classes. We further comment on potential application of this methodology to more sensitive future instruments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

How do central and satellite galaxies quench? – Insights from spatially resolved spectroscopy in the MaNGA survey

ABSTRACT We investigate how star formation quenching proceeds within central and satellite galaxies using spatially resolved spectroscopy from the SDSS-IV MaNGA DR15. We adopt a complete sample of star formation rate surface densities (ΣSFR), derived in Bluck et al. (2020), to compute the distance at which each spaxel resides from the resolved star forming main sequence (ΣSFR − Σ* relation): ΔΣSFR. We study galaxy radial profiles in ΔΣSFR, and luminosity weighted stellar age (AgeL), split by a variety of intrinsic and environmental parameters. Via several statistical analyses, we establish that the quenching of central galaxies is governed by intrinsic parameters, with central velocity dispersion (σc) being the most important single parameter. High mass satellites quench in a very similar manner to centrals. Conversely, low mass satellite quenching is governed primarily by environmental parameters, with local galaxy overdensity (δ5) being the most important single parameter. Utilizing the empirical MBH − σc relation, we estimate that quenching via AGN feedback must occur at $M_{\rm BH} \ge 10^{6.5-7.5} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$, and is marked by steeply rising ΔΣSFR radial profiles in the green valley, indicating ‘inside-out’ quenching. On the other hand, environmental quenching occurs at overdensities of 10–30 times the average galaxy density at z∼ 0.1, and is marked by steeply declining ΔΣSFR profiles, indicating ‘outside-in’ quenching. Finally, through an analysis of stellar metallicities, we conclude that both intrinsic and environmental quenching must incorporate significant starvation of gas supply.

Bluck, Asa F. L.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A MeerKAT-meets-LOFAR study of Abell 1413: a moderately disturbed non-cool-core cluster hosting a ~500 kpc ‘mini’-halo

Many relaxed cool-core clusters host diffuse radio emission on scales of hundreds of kiloparsecs: mini-haloes. However, the mechanism responsible for generating them, as well as their connection with central active galactic nuclei, is elusive and many questions related to their physical properties and origins remain unanswered. This paper presents new radio observations of the galaxy cluster Abell 1413 performed with MeerKAT (L-band; 872 to 1712 MHz) and LOFAR HBA (120 to 168 MHz) as part of a statistical and homogeneous census of mini-haloes. Abell 1413 is unique among mini-halo clusters as it is a moderately disturbed non-cool-core cluster. Our study reveals an asymmetric mini-halo up to 584 kpc in size at 1283 MHz, twice as large as first reported at similar frequencies. The spectral index is flatter than previously reported, with an integrated value of α = −1.01 ± 0.06, shows significant spatial variation, and a tentative radial steepening. We studied the point-to-point X-ray/radio surface brightness correlation to investigate the thermal/non-thermal connection: our results show a strong connection between these components, with a superlinear slope of $b = 1.63^{+0.10}_{-0.10}$ at 1283 MHz and $b = 1.20^{+0.13}_{-0.11}$ at 145 MHz. We also explore the X-ray surface brightness/radio spectral index correlation, finding a slope of $b = 0.59^{+0.11}_{-0.11}$. Both investigations support the evidence of spectral steepening. Finally, in the context of understanding the particle acceleration mechanism, we present a simple theoretical model which demonstrates that hybrid scenarios – secondary electrons (re-)accelerated by turbulence – reproduce a superlinear correlation slope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1988

Utilizing remote sensing of thematic mapper data to improve our understanding of estuarine processes and their influence on the productivity of estuarine-dependent fisheries

The land-water interface of coastal marshes may influence the production of estuarine-dependent fisheries more than the area of these marshes. To test this hypothesis, a spatial model was created to explore the dynamic relationship between marshland-water interface and level of disintegration in the decaying coastal marshes of Louisiana's Barataria, Terrebonne, and Timbalier basins. Calibrating the model with Landsat Thematic Mapper satellite imagery, a parabolic relationship was found between land-water interface and marsh disintegration. Aggregated simulation data suggest that interface in the study area will soon reach its maximum and then decline. A statistically significant positive linear relationship was found between brown shrimp catch and total interface length over the past 28 years. This relationship suggests that shrimp yields will decline when interface declines, possibly beginning about 1995.

Browder, Joan A.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Methods of Attenuation Correction for the TRMM Precipitation Radar Data

The surface reference technique (SRT) has been studied extensively both theoretically and experimentally over the last decade. It is only with the launch of the Tropical Rain Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar, however, that we can begin to test directly whether the technique provides a reliable means of attenuation correction for spaceborne weather radars. Preliminary results indicate that the method yields results that are qualitatively reasonable when the rain rate is moderate or high and when the surface provides a stable reference value. The structure of the normalized radar cross section of the surface (NRCS), however, is highly complex in the sense that the statistics change with background type, incidence angle, location, and season. As a consequence of this, the reliability of the path attenuation estimate is not proportional simply to the amount of rain attenuation but to the rain attenuation relative to the inherent variability of the reference target. To illustrate the behavior of the SRT, several overpasses of the Hurricane Bonnie are shown. We also show that the proper choice of reference data set (spatial, temporal and global) can be critical to the success of the method.

Meneghini, Robert↗
NASA NTRS2017

Multi-Group Maximum Entropy Model for Translational Non-Equilibrium

The aim of the current work is to describe a new model for flows in translational non- equilibrium. Starting from the statistical description of a gas proposed by Boltzmann, the model relies on a domain decomposition technique in velocity space. Using the maximum entropy principle, the logarithm of the distribution function in each velocity sub-domain (group) is expressed with a power series in molecular velocity. New governing equations are obtained using the method of weighted residuals by taking the velocity moments of the Boltzmann equation. The model is applied to a spatially homogeneous Boltzmann equation with a Bhatnagar-Gross-Krook1(BGK) model collision operator and the relaxation of an initial non-equilibrium distribution to a Maxwellian is studied using the model. In addition, numerical results obtained using the model for a 1D shock tube problem are also reported.

Entropy↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Intermittency of Particle Distribution in Relativistic Plasma Turbulence

Abstract Relativistic magnetically dominated turbulence is an efficient engine for particle acceleration in a collisionless plasma. Ultrarelativistic particles accelerated by interactions with turbulent fluctuations form nonthermal power-law distribution functions in the momentum (or energy) space, f ( γ ) d γ ∝ γ − α d γ , where γ is the Lorenz factor. We argue that in addition to exhibiting non-Gaussian distributions over energies, particles energized by relativistic turbulence also become highly intermittent in space. Based on particle-in-cell numerical simulations and phenomenological modeling, we propose that the bulk plasma density has lognormal statistics, while the density of the accelerated particles, n , has a power-law distribution function, P ( n ) dn ∝ n − β dn . We argue that the scaling exponents are related as β ≈ α + 1, which is broadly consistent with numerical simulations. Non-space-filling, intermittent distributions of plasma density and energy fluctuations may have implications for plasma heating and for radiation produced by relativistic turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Snowmass2021 - Letter of interest cosmology intertwined IV: The age of the universe and its curvature

A precise measurement of the curvature of the Universe is of prime importance for cosmology since it could not only confirm the paradigm of primordial inflation but also help in discriminating between different early-Universe scenarios. Recent observations, while broadly consistent with a spatially flat standard Λ Cold Dark Matter ( Λ CDM) model, show tensions that still allow (and, in some cases, even suggest) a few percent deviations from a flat universe. In particular, the Planck Cosmic Microwave Background power spectra, assuming the nominal likelihood, prefer a closed universe at more than 99% confidence level. While new physics could be at play, this anomaly may be the result of an unresolved systematic error or just a statistical fluctuation. However, since positive curvature allows a larger age of the Universe, an accurate determination of the age of the oldest objects provides a smoking gun in confirming or falsifying the current flat Λ CDM model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hestia-SWIFL: hourly anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 and heat on the 2km WRF grid, version 1.1

The Hestia-SWIFL version 1.1 anthropogenic heat (AH) and fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions data product represent emissions due to the combustion of fossil fuel and cement production within the state of Arizona from 2019 to 2022. This product was developed as part of the Southwest Urban Corridor Integrated Field Laboratory (SW-IFL) project, which aims to provide new knowledge and tools that address extreme heat, air quality, climate change and related urban environmental issues by integrating high-resolution observations, modeling, and civic engagement. The emissions are generated using a bottom-up/engineering approach and are tied to results generated by the Vulcan Project version 4, an effort to quantify space/time-resolved FFCO2 & AH emissions for the entire United States landscape. A large number of data sources are combined to best estimate the emissions at fine scales such as air quality emissions data, traffic flow data, building information, sociodemographic information, and fuel statistics. The AH product provides emissions for two emissions sources (transportation and point source emissions) in units of Watts per hour per square meter (W/m2) per year (annual files) or per hour (hourly files). The FFCO2 product provides emissions from nine individual emission sectors as well as the total, and in units of tons of carbon (tC) per grid cell per year or per hour. The output made available here places the native spatial resolution of the Hestia FFCO2 & AH emissions data product (points, lines, and polygons) into a regularized 2km x 2km grid at hourly and annual temporal resolutions, and stored in netCDF files. The exact spatial extent is defined by the ASU Weather Research Forecast (WRF) simulation grid. All data are processed using R/Python pm high-performance computing system. 2-27-2026 updates: Bugs in airport hourly profile (both AH and FFCO2) and building spatial patterns (FFCO2 only) were fixed. Hourly emissions are reprocessed for all years to reflect those changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1978

Analysis techniques for two-dimensional infrared data

In order to evaluate infrared detection and remote sensing systems, it is necessary to know the characteristics of the observational environment. For both scanning and staring sensors, the spatial characteristics of the background may be more of a limitation to the performance of a remote sensor than system noise. This limitation is the so-called spatial clutter limit and may be important for systems design of many earth application and surveillance sensors. The data used in this study is two dimensional radiometric data obtained as part of the continuing NASA remote sensing programs. Typical data sources are the Landsat multi-spectral scanner (1.1 micrometers), the airborne heat capacity mapping radiometer (10.5 - 12.5 micrometers) and various infrared data sets acquired by low altitude aircraft. Techniques used for the statistical analysis of one dimensional infrared data, such as power spectral density (PSD), exceedance statistics, etc. are investigated for two dimensional applicability. Also treated are two dimensional extensions of these techniques (2D PSD, etc.), and special techniques developed for the analysis of 2D data.

Winter, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Estimation of Supersonic Stage Separation Aerodynamics of Winged-Body Launch Vehicles Using Response Surface Methods

A collection of statistical and mathematical techniques referred to as response surface methodology was used to estimate the longitudinal stage separation aerodynamic characteristics of a generic, bimese, winged multi-stage launch vehicle configuration using data obtained on small-scale models at supersonic speeds in the NASA Langley Research Center Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel. The simulated Mach 3 staging was dominated by multiple shock wave interactions between the orbiter and booster vehicles throughout the relative spatial locations of interest. This motivated a partitioning of the overall inference space into several contiguous regions within which the separation aerodynamics were presumed to be well-behaved and estimable using cuboidal and spherical central composite designs capable of fitting full second-order response functions. The primary goal was to approximate the underlying overall aerodynamic response surfaces of the booster vehicle in belly-to-belly proximity to the orbiter vehicle using relatively simple, lower-order polynomial functions that were piecewise-continuous across the full independent variable ranges of interest. The quality of fit and prediction capabilities of the empirical models were assessed in detail, and the issue of subspace boundary discontinuities was addressed. The potential benefits of augmenting the central composite designs to full third order using computer-generated D-optimality criteria were also evaluated. The usefulness of central composite designs, the subspace sizing, and the practicality of fitting low-order response functions over a partitioned inference space dominated by highly nonlinear and possibly discontinuous shock-induced aerodynamics are discussed.

Erickson, Gary E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

How Universal is the Relationship Between Remotely Sensed Vegetation Indices and Crop Leaf Area Index? A Global Assessment

Leaf Area Index (LAI) is a key variable that bridges remote sensing observations to the quantification of agroecosystem processes. In this study, we assessed the universality of the relationships between crop LAI and remotely sensed Vegetation Indices (VIs). We first compiled a global dataset of 1459 in situ quality-controlled crop LAI measurements and collected Landsat satellite images to derive five different VIs including Simple Ratio (SR), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), two versions of the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI and EVI2), and Green Chlorophyll Index (CI(sub Green)). Based on this dataset, we developed global LAI-VI relationships for each crop type and VI using symbolic regression and Theil-Sen (TS) robust estimator. Results suggest that the global LAI-VI relationships are statistically significant, crop-specific, and mostly non-linear. These relationships explain more than half of the total variance in ground LAI observations (R2 greater than 0.5), and provide LAI estimates with RMSE below 1.2 m2/m2. Among the five VIs, EVI/EVI2 are the most effective, and the crop-specific LAI-EVI and LAI-EVI2 relationships constructed by TS, are robust when tested by three independent validation datasets of varied spatial scales. While the heterogeneity of agricultural landscapes leads to a diverse set of local LAI-VI relationships, the relationships provided here represent global universality on an average basis, allowing the generation of large-scale spatial-explicit LAI maps. This study contributes to the operationalization of large-area crop modeling and, by extension, has relevance to both fundamental and applied agroecosystem research.

Vegetation Index↗
DOE OSTI2021

Local and Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Reactive Transport Model Simulating Floodplain Redox Cycling

Reactive transport models (RTMs) are essential tools that simulate the coupling of advective, diffusive, and reactive processes in the subsurface, but their complexity makes them difficult to understand, develop and improve without accompanying statistical analyses. Although global sensitivity analysis (SA) can address these issues, the computational cost associated with most global SA techniques limits their use with RTMs. In this study, we apply distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA), a novel and computationally efficient method of global SA, to a floodplain-scale RTM and compare DGSA results to those from local SA. Our test case focuses on the impact of 17 uncertain environmental parameters on spatially and temporally variable redox conditions within a floodplain aquifer. The input parameters considered include flow and diffusion rates, geochemical reaction rates, and the spatial distribution of sediment facies. Sensitivity was evaluated for three distinct components of the model response, encompassing both multidimensional and categorical output. Parameter rankings differ between local SA and DGSA, due to nonlinear effects of individual parameters and interaction effects between parameters. DGSA results show that fluid residence time, which is controlled by aquifer permeability, generally exerts a stronger control on redox conditions than do geochemical reaction rates. Sensitivity indices also demonstrate that sulfate reduction is key for establishing and maintaining reducing conditions throughout the aquifer. Furthermore, these results provide insights into the key drivers of heterogeneous redox processes within floodplain aquifers, as well as the main sources of uncertainty when modeling complex subsurface systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Velocity reconstruction in the era of DESI and Rubin/LSST. I. Exploring spectroscopic, photometric, and hybrid samples

Peculiar velocities of galaxies and halos can be reconstructed from their spatial distribution alone. This technique is analogous to the baryon acoustic oscillations reconstruction, using the continuity equation to connect density and velocity fields. The resulting reconstructed velocities can be used to measure imprints of galaxy velocities on the cosmic microwave background like the kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect or the moving lens effect. As the precision of these measurements increases, characterizing the performance of the velocity reconstruction becomes crucial to allow unbiased and statistically optimal inference. In this paper, we quantify the relevant performance metrics: the variance of the reconstructed velocities and their correlation coefficient with the true velocities. We show that the relevant velocities to reconstruct for kSZ and moving lens are actually the halo—rather than galaxy—velocities. We quantify the impact of redshift-space distortions, photometric redshift errors, satellite galaxy fraction, incorrect cosmological parameter assumptions and smoothing scale on the reconstruction performance. Here, we also investigate hybrid reconstruction methods, where velocities inferred from spectroscopic samples are evaluated at the positions of denser photometric samples. We find that using exclusively the photometric sample is better than performing a hybrid analysis. The 2 Gpc/ℎ length simulations from abacussummit with realistic galaxy samples for DESI and Rubin LSST allow us to perform this analysis in a controlled setting. In the companion paper [B. Hadzhiyska, S. Ferraro, B. Ried Guachalla, and E. Schaan, companion paper, Phys. Rev. D 109, 103534 (2024).], we further include the effects of evolution along the light cone and give realistic performance estimates for DESI luminous red galaxies, emission line galaxies, and Rubin LSST-like samples.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Cross-correlation Study of High-energy Neutrinos and Tracers of Large-scale Structure

The origin of the bulk of the astrophysical neutrinos detected by the IceCube Observatory remains a mystery. Previous source-finding analyses compared the directions of IceCube events and individual sources in astrophysical catalogs. The source association method is technically challenging when the number of source candidates is much larger than the number of the observed astrophysical neutrinos. In this paper, we show that in this large source number regime, a two-point cross-correlation analysis of neutrino data and source catalog can instead be used to constrain potential source populations for the high-energy astrophysical neutrinos, and provide spatial evidence for the existence of astrophysical neutrinos. We present an analysis of the cross-correlation of the IceCube 2010–2012 point-source data and a WISE–2MASS galaxy sample. While we find no significant detection of cross-correlation with the publicly available neutrino data set, we show that, when applied to the full IceCube data, which has a longer observation time and higher astrophysical neutrino purity, our method has sufficient statistical power to detect a cross-correlation signal if the neutrino sources trace the large-scale structure of the universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Test Vector Development for Verification and Validation of Heavy-Duty Autonomous Vehicle Operations

The current focus in the ongoing development of autonomous driving systems (ADS) for heavy duty vehicles is that of vehicle operational safety. To this end, developers and researchers alike are working towards a complete understanding of the operating environments and conditions that autonomous vehicles are subject to during their mission. This understanding is critical to the testing and validation phases of the development of autonomous vehicles and allows for the identification of both the nominal and edge case scenarios encountered by these systems. Previous work by the authors saw the development of a comprehensive scenario generation framework to identify an operating domain specification (ODS), or external and internal conditions an autonomous driving system can expect to encounter on its mission to form critical scenario groups for autonomous vehicle testing and validating using statistical patterns, clustering, and correlation. Continuing this prior work, this paper focuses on the generation of test cases based on the critical scenarios identified that can be used to prioritize either the most common nominal driving scenarios or the least common severe driving scenarios. These test cases can then be used validate, through simulation or real-world testing, the operating design domain (ODD) for a generalized driving mission and built upon to identify spatial and temporal impacts on the driving mission of an autonomous vehicle.

Siekmann, Adam↗
NASA NTRS1994

Approaches of comparison for clear-sky radiative fluxes from general circulation models with Earth Radiation Budget Experiment data

In order to compare the clear-sky greenhouse effect and cloud-radiative forcing from general circulation models with Earth Radiation Budget Experiments (ERBE) data, it is necessary to calculate the general circulation model (GCM) clear-sky radiative fluxes in a way consistent with ERBE. This study discusses problems associated with the available methods for clear-sky radiative flux computations in GCMs and proposes a new approach, which uses a statistical relationship between the grid cloud cover and the availability of ERBE clear-sky measurement, established from ERBE pixel data, to sample the model radiative fluxes. Calculations with version 2 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model using observed sea surface temperature (SST) show good agreement of clear-sky sampling from the proposed method with ERBE sampling. It is also shown that large improvements are achieved in the spatial variability of the model clear-sky radiative fluxes over ocean, with reference to ERBE, by using the new clear-sky sampling method.

Zhang, M. H.↗