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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Laboratory and On-Sky Validation of the Shaped Pupil Coronagraph's Sensitivity to Low-Order Aberrations with Active Wavefront Control

We present early laboratory simulations and extensive on-sky tests validating of the performance of a shaped pupil coronagraph (SPC) behind an extreme-AO (Adaptive Optics) corrected beam of the Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics (SCExAO) system. In tests with the SCExAO internal source/wavefront error simulator, the normalized intensity profile for the SPC degrades more slowly than for the Lyot coronagraph as low-order aberrations reduce the Strehl ratio (S.R.) from extremely high values (S.R. approximately 0.93-0.99) to those characteristic of current ground-based extreme AO systems (S.R. approximately 0.74-0.93) and then slightly lower values down to S.R. approximately 0.57. On-sky SCExAO data taken with the SPC and other coronagraphs for brown dwarf/planet-hosting stars HD 1160 and HR 8799 provide further evidence for the SPC's robustness to low-order aberrations. From H-band Strehl ratios of 80 percent to 70 percent, the Lyot coronagraph's performance versus that of the SPC may degrade even faster on sky than is seen in our internal source simulations. The 5-sigma contrast also degrades faster (by a factor of two) for the Lyot than the SPC. The SPC we use was designed as a technology demonstrator only, with a contrast floor, throughput, and outer working angle poorly matched for SCExAO's current AO performance and poorly tuned for imaging the HR 8799 planets. Nevertheless, we detect HR 8799 cde with SCExAO/CHARIS using the SPC in broadband mode, where the signal-to-noise ratio for planet e is within 30 percent of that obtained using the vortex coronagraph. The shaped-pupil coronagraph is a promising design demonstrated to be robust in the presence of low-order aberrations and may be well-suited for future ground and space-based direct imaging observations, especially those focused on follow-up exoplanet characterization and technology demonstration of deep contrast within well-defined regions of the image plane.

Currie, Thayne↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessment of the Accuracy of the Conventional Ray-Tracing Technique: Implications in Remote Sensing and Radiative Transfer Involving Ice Clouds.

A fundamental problem in remote sensing and radiative transfer simulations involving ice clouds is the ability to compute accurate optical properties for individual ice particles. While relatively simple and intuitively appealing, the conventional geometric-optics method (CGOM) is used frequently for the solution of light scattering by ice crystals. Due to the approximations in the ray-tracing technique, the CGOM accuracy is not well quantified. The result is that the uncertainties are introduced that can impact many applications. Improvements in the Invariant Imbedding T-matrix method (II-TM) and the Improved Geometric-Optics Method (IGOM) provide a mechanism to assess the aforementioned uncertainties. The results computed by the II-TMþIGOM are considered as a benchmark because the IITM solves Maxwell's equations from first principles and is applicable to particle size parameters ranging into the domain at which the IGOM has reasonable accuracy. To assess the uncertainties with the CGOM in remote sensing and radiative transfer simulations, two independent optical property datasets of hexagonal columns are developed for sensitivity studies by using the CGOM and the II-TMþIGOM, respectively. Ice cloud bulk optical properties obtained from the two datasets are compared and subsequently applied to retrieve the optical thickness and effective diameter from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) measurements. Additionally, the bulk optical properties are tested in broadband radiative transfer (RT) simulations using the general circulation model (GCM) version of the Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTMG) that is adopted in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM, version 5.1). For MODIS retrievals, the mean bias of uncertainties of applying the CGOM in shortwave bands (0.86 and 2.13 micrometers) can be up to 5% in the optical thickness and as high as 20% in the effective diameter, depending on cloud optical thickness and effective diameter. In the MODIS infrared window bands centered at 8.5, 11, and 12 micrometers biases in the optical thickness and effective diameter are up to 12% and 10%, respectively. The CGOM-based simulation errors in ice cloud radiative forcing calculations are on the order of 10Wm(exp 2).

remote sensing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Stratocumulus Evolution Under Contrasting Temperature Advections in CESM2 Through a Lagrangian Framework

Abstract This study leveraged a Lagrangian framework to examine the evolution of stratocumulus clouds under cold and warm advections (CADV and WADV) in the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) against observations. We found that CESM2 simulates a too rapid decline in low‐cloud fraction (LCF) and cloud liquid water path (CLWP) under CADV conditions, while it better aligns closely with observed LCF under WADV conditions but overestimates the increase in CLWP. Employing an explainable machine learning approach, we found that too rapid decreases in LCF and CLWP under CADV conditions are related to overestimated drying effects induced by sea surface temperature, whereas the substantial increase in CLWP under WADV conditions is associated with the overestimated moistening effects due to free‐tropospheric moisture and surface winds. Our findings suggest that overestimated drying effects of sea surface temperature on cloud properties might be one of crucial causes for the high equilibrium climate sensitivity in CESM2.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Modeling of polymer photodegradation for solar cell modules

It was shown that many of the experimental observations in the photooxidation of hydrocarbon polymers can be accounted for with a computer simulation using an elementary mechanistic model with corresponding rate constants for each reaction. For outdoor applications, however, such as in photovoltaics, the variation of temperature must have important effects on the useful lifetimes of such materials. The data bank necessary to replace the isothermal rate constant values with Arrhenius activation parameters: A (the pre-exponential factor) and E (the activation energy) was searched. The best collection of data assembled to data is summarized. Note, however, that the problem is now considerably enlarged since from a theoretical point of view, with 51 of the input variables replaced with 102 parameters. The sensitivity of the overall scheme is such that even after many computer simulations, a successful photooxidation simulation with the expanded variable set was not completed. Many of the species in the complex process undergo a number of competitive pathways, the relative importance of each being often sensitive to small changes in the calculated rate constant values.

Somersall, A. C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of the numerical solution approach of a plant hydrodynamic model (v0.1) on vegetation dynamics

Abstract. Numerous plant hydrodynamic models have started to be implemented in vegetation dynamics models, reflecting the central role of plant hydraulic traits in driving water, energy, and carbon cycles, as well as plant adaptation to climate change. Different numerical approximations of the governing equations of the hydrodynamic models have been documented, but the numerical accuracy of these models and its subsequent effects on the simulated vegetation function and dynamics have rarely been evaluated. Using different numerical solution methods (including implicit and explicit approaches) and vertical discrete grid resolutions, we evaluated the numerical performance of a plant hydrodynamic module in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES-HYDRO version 0.1) based on single-point and global simulations. Our simulation results showed that when near-surface vertical grid spacing is coarsened (grid size >10 cm), the model significantly overestimates aboveground biomass (AGB) in most of the temperate forest locations and underestimates AGB in the boreal forest locations, as compared to a simulation with finer vertical grid spacing. Grid coarsening has a small effect on AGB in the tropical zones of Asia and South America. In particular, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there are large and prolonged water content differences among soil layers at depths due to long dry-season duration and/or well-drained soil or when soil evaporation is a dominant fraction of evapotranspiration. Similarly, coarse surface grid resolution should not be used when there is lithologic discontinuity along the soil depth. This information is useful for uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, or the training of surrogate models to design the simulations when computational cost limits the use of ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Resolved resonance region evaluations of n+ 206,207,208 Pb for fast spectrum applications

Resolved resonance region evaluations of the major isotopes of natural lead, 206 Pb, 207 Pb, 208 Pb, have been per formed to support the development of Generation IV reactors. In this study, validation of nuclear data for lead fast reactors was performed with simulations of shielding benchmarks, integral critical benchmarks, and quasi-differential scattering measurements. Sensitivity analyses of these systems showed that elastic scattering reactions above 100 keV were the dominant reactions driving system performance. The resolved resonance regions (RRRs) of the lead isotopes extend past 100 keV, making the RRR an ideal starting point to evaluate lead cross sections. Since the R-matrix requires knowledge of bound, distant, and observed resonances, it was necessary to evaluate from 10 -5 eV up to the respective limit of the RRR. The 208 Pb RRR evaluation was extended to 1.5 MeV in order to obtain resonance parameters used to calculate new elastic scattering angular distributions up to 1.5 MeV. Resonance parameter uncertainties and covariance were generated using the R-matrix code SAMMY. The new RRR parameters show a direct improvement to the scattering kernel below 1.5 MeV which in turn greatly improves fast critical experiments over ENDF/B-VIII.0.

206Pb↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Impact on Simulated Storm Structure and Intensity of Variations in the Lifted Condensation Level and the Level of Free Convection

The sensitivities of convective storm structure and intensity to changes in the altitudes of the prestorm environmental lifted condensation level and level of free convection axe studied using a full-physics three-dimensional cloud model. Matrices of simulations are conducted for a range of LCL=LFC altitudes, using a single moderately-sheared curved hodograph trace in conjunction with 1 convective available potential energy values of either 800 or 2000 J/kg, with the matrices consisting of all four combinations of two distinct choices of buoyancy and shear profile shape. For each value of CAPE, the LCL=LFC altitudes are also allowed to vary in a series of simulations based on the most highly compressed buoyancy and shear profiles for that CAPE, with the environmental buoyancy profile shape, subcloud equivalent potential temperature, subcloud lapse rates of temperature and moisture, and wind profile held fixed. For each CAPE, one final simulation is conducted using a near optimal LFC, but a lowered LCL, with a neutrally buoyant environmental thermal profile specified in between. Results show that, for the buoyancy-starved small-CAPE environments, the simulated storms are supercells and are generally largest and most intense when LCL=LFC altitudes lie in the approximate range 1.5-2.5 km above the surface. The simulations show similar trends for the shear-starved large-CAPE environments, except that conversion from supercell to multicell morphology frequently occurs when the LCL is high. For choices of LCL=LFC height within the optimal 1.5-2.5 km range, peak storm updraft overturning efficiency may approaches unity relative to parcel theory, while for lower LCL=LFC heights, overturning efficiency is reduced significantly. The enhancements of overturning efficiency and updraft diameter with increasing LFC height are shown to be the result of systematic increases in the mean equivalent potential temperature of the updraft at cloud base. For the shear-starved environments, the tendency for outflow dominance is eliminated, but a large overturning efficiency maintained, when a low LCL is used in conjunction with a high LFC. The result regarding outflow dominance at high LCL is consistent with expectations, but the beneficial effect of a high LFC on convective overturning efficiency has not previously been widely recognized. The simulation findings here also appear to be consistent with statistics from previous severe storm environment climatologies, but provide a new framework for interpreting those statistics.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1990

A simulation survey of galaxy interactions

Many carefully selected samples of interacting galaxies have been observed extensively in attempts to clarify whether interaction produces activity in galaxies. Because the sample members represent a wide range of encounter parameters and times, one can then study whether there are correlations between observable encounter features and, for example, Seyfert activity. On the other hand, in theoretical studies, simulations typically deal with either time-consuming detailed modelling of single galaxy pairs or tracing a few model encounters over time. The authors extend the observational survey approach by combining it with a simulation survey. The authors are conducting a survey of model encounters, covering the most important encounter parameters over a wide range. Some parameters, such as companion structure and initial velocity, are demonstratably less important and can be ignored in a first pass. The parameter range must be richly enough sampled so that the authors can evaluate the uniqueness of the observable morphology and velocity structure of the resulting simulated pairs to diagnose unobservable companion orbit parameters. They are using a self-gravitating polar n-body code run on the Cray X-MP at the Alabama Supercomputer Network. For each simulation, the authors have stellar and gas distributions predicted over, typically, a billion years, along with information on gas motions within the disk and any material captured by the companion or lost to the system. Features of disturbed spiral galaxies are sensitive enough to time and encounter parameters so that a match of the simulation survey results to observations can be applied as starting points to infer unobservable orbital or system parameters in actual sample members. This should enable them to examine whether interesting observed properties (Seyfert activity, nuclear star-formation rate) are functions of unobservable dynamical properties which characterize each encounter. Any correlations (or lack of some expected ones) will provide strong clues as to how or whether these phenomena are related to interactions. Aside from its use with such observed samples, this survey should greatly speed determination of initial orbital parameters for more detailed subsequent simulations of individual systems.

Byrd, Gene G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A numerical investigation of coal particle modeling for the inlet section of a pressurized oxy-combustion burner

Concerns over climate change have led to numerous efforts to develop low-carbon technologies, and pressurized oxy-combustion (POC) is a promising candidate to reduce carbon emissions in the power industry. Designing an effective burner for such technologies is vital for the development of these and other coal combustion technologies. Because of the high pressure, the volume fraction of coal particles at the fuel inlet of the pressurized oxy-combustor burner is close to or even higher than the maximum limit for commercial CFD codes (e.g., ANSYS FLUENT). At these high particle volume fractions, the interactions among particles, fluid flow and wall need to be re-evaluated. The present computational work is a first step in a systematic analysis of the influence of various parameters, like method of particle release, release location, and particle size, in a pilot-scale POC combustor, developed at Washington University in St. Louis (WUSTL). In the POC process, pulverized coal is burned under elevated pressure in an O2-CO2 environment. Specifically, a 15-bar, 100 kWth, POC combustor is modeled employing Ansys FLUENT commercial sodtware using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) approach. It is revealed that for this pilot-scale, pressurized burner, velocity profiles in the near-wall region exhibit some anomalies. In order to investigate the influence of particle loading in the near-wall region, particle release location was investigated. The numerical simulations incorporate the coupling between the turbulent flow and the particles. A sensitivity investigation of particle release location found that by tuning the release location, the velocity profile can be consistent with the pure gas flow velocity profile. More importantly, the particle releasing location also affects flame stability. Particle size was also found to have a significant impact on particle trajectory, flame stability and temperature. Finally, Large Eddy Simulations (LES) were performed and compared with the results from two-dimensional RANS.

Li, Lei↗
NASA NTRS2020

GISS Model E2.2: A Climate Model Optimized for the Middle Atmosphere. Part 2: Validation of Large-Scale Transport and Evaluation of Climate Response

Here we examine the large‐scale transport characteristics of the new ``Middle Atmosphere" NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies climate model (E2.2). First we evaluate the stratospheric transport circulation in historical atmosphere‐only simulations integrated with interactive trace gas and aerosol chemistry. Compared to lower vertical resolution model versions, E2.2 exhibits improved tropical ascent and older stratospheric mean ages that are more consistent with observed values. In the troposphere, poleward transport to the Arctic and interhemispheric mean ages in E2.2 are comparable to models participating in the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative. In addition to validating E2.2 we also assess its ``transport sensitivity" using the coupled atmosphere‐ocean abrupt 4xCO2 and transient 1%CO2 simulations submitted to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, along with a 2xCO2 simulation used to evaluate the linearity of the transport circulation's response to increased CO2. We show that decreases (increases) in a stratospheric mean age (idealized surface loss) tracer scale linearly with increased lower stratospheric upwelling, which also increases linearly with warming tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Abrupt 2xCO2 and 4xCO2 experiments constrained with (fixed) pre‐industrial SSTs are also used to quantify the relative importance of rapid adjustments versus SST feedbacks to the transport circulation responses in the model. Finally, sensitivity experiments are presented to illustrate the impact of changes in the convective parameterization on stratospheric transport.

GISS Model E2.2↗
NASA NTRS1990

Modeling the turbulent kinetic energy equation for compressible, homogeneous turbulence

The turbulent kinetic energy transport equation, which is the basis of turbulence models, is investigated for homogeneous, compressible turbulence using direct numerical simulations performed at CTR. It is shown that the partition between dilatational and solenoidal modes is very sensitive to initial conditions for isotropic decaying turbulence but not for sheared flows. The importance of the dilatational dissipation and of the pressure-dilatation term is evidenced from simulations and a transport equation is proposed to evaluate the pressure-dilatation term evolution. This transport equation seems to work well for sheared flows but does not account for initial condition sensitivity in isotropic decay. An improved model is proposed.

Aupoix, B.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A cycle-jump acceleration method for the crystal plasticity simulation of high cycle fatigue of the metallic microstructure

For metallic materials, high-cycle fatigue life is sensitive to underlying microstructure features including secondary phases, textures, grains morphology, etc. The traditional, data-based safe-life approaches for modeling fatigue don’t explicitly consider the microstructure and can’t guide study in microstructure modification for improved fatigue property. Crystal plasticity-based simulation provides increased model fidelity at the expense of immense computation time, making it inapplicable for high cycle fatigue. In this work, an acceleration method based on cycle-jump approach (Lesne and Savalle, 1989) was developed for microstructure-based high-cycle FE simulation using crystal plasticity constitutive-model. We report this method demonstrated high efficiency in benchmark tests of various conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Increased Latent Generations on Sensitivity Calculations with SCALE

Analyses of cross section sensitivity data from systems with fissile material allow analysts to associate an importance for each material, nuclide, reaction, and neutron energy by simulating real world criticality scenarios. Although criticality safety validation efforts can be guided by the cross-section sensitivity and uncertainty data generated for a particular system, these calculations can often be computationally expensive and sometimes cumbersome without proper guidance. The TSUNAMI suite within the SCALE code package has several methods for generating sensitivity data, including multigroup and continuous energy (CE) capabilities. The release of SCALE 6.3 has three different CE methods for generating cross section sensitivity data: (1) the Iterated Fission Probability (IFP) method with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver, (2) the IFP method with the Shift Monte Carlo transport solver, and (3) the Contributon-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance CHaracterization (CLUTCH) method with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver. Although the CLUTCH method has additional parameters for generating sensitivity data files relative to the IFP method, all three methods use latent generations, which are the generations between an event (i.e., fission) and the assessment of importance based on the asymptotic population of progeny neutrons. Increasing the number of latent generations in a calculation leads to increased discrimination of the sensitivity coefficients but at the cost of the increased uncertainty associated with those generated values. Analysts must balance the accuracy of the sensitivity calculations and its uncertainty with the associated computational cost involved in generating the values. This paper discusses the impact of adjusting the latent generation parameter for a range of sensitivity values and how these changes compare with the direct perturbation values obtained from a change of ±0.5% Δ k in both benchmark and safety application models. Two benchmarks from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments and the MPC-32 dual purpose canister for spent nuclear fuel are used for analysis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity of the strength and toughness of concrete to the properties of the interfacial transition zone

We report Civil infrastructure is made primarily of concrete structures or components and therefore understanding durability and fracture behavior of concrete is of utmost importance. Concrete contains an interfacial transition zone (ITZ), a porous region surrounding the aggregates, that is often considered to be the weakest region in the concrete. The ITZ is poorly characterized and property estimates for the ITZ differ considerably. In this simulation study, representative concrete mesostructures are produced by packing coarse aggregates with realistic geometries into a mortar matrix. A meshless numerical method, peridynamics, is utilized to simulate the mechanical response including fracture under uniaxial compression and tension. The sensitivity of the stiffness and fracture toughness of the samples to the ITZ properties is computed, showing strong relationships between the ITZ properties and the effective modulus and effective yield strength of the concrete. These results provides insight into the influence of the poorly characterized ITZ on the stiffness and strength of concrete. This work showcases the applicability of peridynamics to concrete systems, matching experimental strength and modulus values. Additionally, relationships between the ITZ’s mechanical properties and the overall concrete strength and stiffness are presented to enable future design decisions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS2018

High-Fidelity Multidisciplinary Design Optimization Methodology with Application to Rotor Blades

A multidisciplinary design optimization procedure has been developed and applied to rotorcraft simulations involving tightly-coupled, high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics and comprehensive analysis. A discretely-consistent, adjoint-based sensitivity analysis available in the fluid dynamics solver provides sensitivities arising from unsteady turbulent flows on unstructured, dynamic, overset meshes, while a complex-variable approach is used to compute structural sensitivities with respect to aerodynamic loads. The multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis is conducted through integrating the sensitivity components from each discipline of the coupled system. Accuracy of the coupled system for high-fidelity rotorcraft analysis is verified; simulation results exhibit good agreement with established solutions. A constrained gradient-based design optimization for a HART-II rotorcraft configuration is demonstrated. The computational cost for individual components of the multidisciplinary sensitivity analysis is assessed and improved.

Wang, Li↗
NASA NTRS2016

Least Squares Shadowing Sensitivity Analysis of Chaotic Flow Around a Two-Dimensional Airfoil

Gradient-based sensitivity analysis has proven to be an enabling technology for many applications, including design of aerospace vehicles. However, conventional sensitivity analysis methods break down when applied to long-time averages of chaotic systems. This breakdown is a serious limitation because many aerospace applications involve physical phenomena that exhibit chaotic dynamics, most notably high-resolution large-eddy and direct numerical simulations of turbulent aerodynamic flows. A recently proposed methodology, Least Squares Shadowing (LSS), avoids this breakdown and advances the state of the art in sensitivity analysis for chaotic flows. The first application of LSS to a chaotic flow simulated with a large-scale computational fluid dynamics solver is presented. The LSS sensitivity computed for this chaotic flow is verified and shown to be accurate, but the computational cost of the current LSS implementation is high.

Blonigan, Patrick J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Sensitivity of a Cloud-Resolving Model to the Bulk and Explicit Bin Microphysical Schemes

A cloud-resolving model is used to study sensitivities of two different microphysical schemes, one is the traditional bulk type, and the other is an explicit bin scheme, in simulating a mid-latitude squall line case (PRE-STORM, June 10-1 1,1985). Simulations using different microphysical schemes are compared with each other and also with the observations. Both the bulk and bin models reproduce the general features during the developing and mature stage of the system. Furthermore, the observations and the well-proven bulk scheme simulation serve as validations for the newly incorporated bin scheme. However, it is also shown that the bulk and bin simulations have distinct differences, most notably in the stratiform region of the squall line system. Weak convective cells exist in the stratiform region in the bulk simulation, but not in the bin simulation. These weak convective cells in the stratiform region simulated in the bulk scheme model are remnants of the stronger convections previously at the leading edge of the system, sustained by horizontal vorticity generated by its own cool pool near the surface. The bin simulation, on the other hand, has a horizontally homogeneous stratiform cloud structure, which agrees better with the observations. Examinations of the downdraft core strength, the potential temperature perturbation, and the evaporative cooling rate show that the differences between the bulk and bin models are due mainly to the stronger low-level evaporative cooling in the convective zone simulated in the bulk microphysical scheme, which is unrealistic because of the assumptions made in raindrop size distribution. Further sensitivity tests that reduce the evaporation rate in bulk scheme artificially produce more upright convective core and less weak cores in stratiform region. However, they produce weaker upper level outflow and consequently less stratiform rain area. The addition of a more realistic raindrop breakup scheme in the bin scheme results more realistic radar reflectivity and stronger surface rainfall. Despite the increase of the rain evaporation and strengthening of the near surface cool pool, bin scheme with rain breakup shows homogeneous stratiform rain. These sensitivity tests prove the robustness of the bin microphysical scheme and the difficulty of tuning the limited parameters in the bulk microphysical scheme to realistically reproduce detail structures in a mid-latitude squall line case study.

Li, Xiao-Wen↗
DOE OSTI2025

ISMIP6-based Antarctic projections to 2100: simulations with the BISICLES ice sheet model

The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet is one of the most uncertain components of sea level rise to 2100. Ice sheet models are the primary tool for projecting future sea level contribution from continental ice sheets. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 6 (ISMIP6) provided projections of the ice sheet contribution to sea level over the 21st century, quantifying uncertainty due to ice sheet model, climate model, emission scenario, and uncertain parameters. We present simulations following the ISMIP6 framework with the BISICLES ice sheet model and new experiments extending the ISMIP6 protocol to more comprehensively sample uncertainties in future climate, ice shelf sensitivity to ocean melting, and their interactions. These results contributed to the land ice projections of Edwards et al. (2021), which formed the basis of sea level projections for the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (AR6). Our experiments show the important interplay between surface mass balance processes and ocean-driven melt in determining Antarctic sea level contribution. Under higher-warming scenarios, high accumulation offsets more ocean-driven mass loss when sensitivity to ocean-driven melt is low. Conversely, we show that when sensitivity to ocean warming is high, ocean melting drives increased mass loss despite high accumulation. Overall, we simulate a sea level contribution range across our experiments from 2 to 178 mm. Finally, we show that collapse of ice shelves due to surface warming increases sea level contribution by 25 mm relative to the no-collapse experiments, for both moderate and high sensitivity of ice shelf melting to ocean forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗